Computer simulation permits answering theoretical and applied questions in animal and plant breeding.Blib is a novel multi-module simulation platform,which is able to handle more complicated genetic effects and models...Computer simulation permits answering theoretical and applied questions in animal and plant breeding.Blib is a novel multi-module simulation platform,which is able to handle more complicated genetic effects and models than most existing tools.In this study,we describe one major and unified application module of Blib,i.e.,ISB(abbreviated from in silico breeding),for simulating the three categories of breeding programs for developing clonal,pure-line and hybrid cultivars in plants.Genetic models on environments and breeding-targeted traits,one or several parental populations,and a number of breeding methods are key elements to run simulation experiments in ISB,which are arranged in three external input files by given formats.Applications of ISB are illustrated by three case studies,representing the three categories of plant breeding programs.Under the condition that 5000 F1 progenies were generated and tested from 50 heterozygous parents,Case study I showed that 50 crosses,each of 100 progenies,made the best balance between genetic achievement and field cost.In Case study II,one optimum breeding method was identified by which the pure lines with high yield and medium maturity could be developed.Case study III investigated the genetic consequence in hybrid breeding from five testers.One tester was identified for the simultaneous improvement in F1 hybrids and inbred lines.In summary,ISB identified a balanced crossing scheme,an optimum pure-line selection method,and an optimized tester in three case studies which are relevant to plant breeding.We believe the prediction by simulation would be highly required in front of the next generation of breeding to be driven by informatics and intelligence.展开更多
Purpose:The major limitation of tumor microwave ablation(MWA)operation is the lack of predictability of the ablation zone before surgery.Operators rely on their individual experience to select a treatment plan,which i...Purpose:The major limitation of tumor microwave ablation(MWA)operation is the lack of predictability of the ablation zone before surgery.Operators rely on their individual experience to select a treatment plan,which is prone to either inadequate or excessive ablation.This paper aims to establish an ablation prediction model that guides MWA tumor surgical planning.Methods:An MWA process was first simulated by incorporating electromagnetic radiation equations,thermal equations,and optimized biological tissue parameters(dynamic dielectric and thermophysical parameters).The temperature distributions(the short/long diameters,and the total volume of the ablation zone)were then generated and verified by 60 cases ex vivo porcine liver experiments.Subsequently,a series of data were obtained from the simulated temperature distributions and to further fit the novel ablation coagulated area prediction model(ACAPM),thus rendering the ablation-dose table for the guiding surgical plan.The MWA clinical patient data and clinical devices suggested data were used to validate the accuracy and practicability of the established predicted model.Results:The 60 cases ex vivo porcine liver experiments demonstrated the accuracy of the simulated temperature distributions.Compared to traditional simulation methods,our approach reduces the long-diameter error of the ablation zone from 1.1 cm to 0.29 cm,achieving a 74%reduction in error.Further,the clinical data including the patients'operation results and devices provided values were consistent well with our predicated data,indicating the great potential of ACAPM to assist preoperative planning.展开更多
Effective isolation between the cement sheath and the sandstone is crucial for the development and production of oil and gas wells in sandstone formations.In this study,a cement-sandstone composite(CSC)was prepared,an...Effective isolation between the cement sheath and the sandstone is crucial for the development and production of oil and gas wells in sandstone formations.In this study,a cement-sandstone composite(CSC)was prepared,and based onμ-CT three-dimensional reconstruction imaging and finite element analysis(FEA)techniques,the stress distribution and potential failure mechanism at the cement-sandstone bonding interface under axial loading were analyzed.The key findings are as follows:(1)stress concentrations are highly likely to form at the gap between the cement and sandstone interface and around interfacial voids,with Von Mises stress reaching critical levels of 18.0-20.0 MPa at these locations,significantly exceeding the stress magnitudes in well-bonded regions;(2)the phenomenon of local stress concentration driven by interfacial defects can be identified as the main basis for predicting damage location in interfacial debonding and continuous shear under axial load;(3)ensuring tight cementation at the cement-sandstone interface and minimizing interfacial voids are paramount for preventing stress-induced failure;(4)the critical Von Mises stress value of 20 MPa at the interface defect can be used as a benchmark for material selection and designed to ensure long-term integrity in oil and gas well applications subjected to similar axial loads.These findings contribute to a more accurate understanding of the failure mechanism of the cement-sandstone interface and to the precise design of material properties,thereby ensuring the long-term integrity of oil and gas well applications subjected to similar axial loads.展开更多
Building the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)is one of China’s three national development policies in the new era.The ecological environment of the Yangtze River Economic Belt must be protected not only for regional...Building the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)is one of China’s three national development policies in the new era.The ecological environment of the Yangtze River Economic Belt must be protected not only for regional economic development but also for regional ecological security and ecological progress in this region.This paper takes the ecological space of the Yangtze River Economic Belt as the research object,based on land use data in 2010 and 2015,and uses the FLUS model to simulate and predict the ecological space of the research area in 2035.The variation of the research area’s ecological space area and its four sub-zones has remarkable stability under diverse situations.Both the production space priority scenarios(S1)and living space priority scenarios(S2)saw a fall in ecological space area,with the former experiencing the highest reduction(a total reduction of 25,212 km^(2)).Under the ecological space priority scenarios(S3)and comprehensive space optimization scenario(S4),the ecological space area increased,and the ecological space area expanded even more under the former scenario(a total growth of 23,648 km^(2)).In Yunnan-Guizhou,the ecological space is relatively stable,with minimal signs of change.In Sichuan-Chongqing,the Sichuan Basin,Zoige Grassland,and Longmen Mountains were significant regions of area changes in ecological space.In the middle reaches of the Yangtze River,the ecological space changes mainly occur in the Wuyi Mountains,Mufu Mountains,and Dabie Mountains,as well as the surrounding waters of Dongting Lake.The Yangtze River Delta’s changes were mainly observed in the eastern Dabie Mountains and Jianghuai Hills.展开更多
The metropolitan area is a crucial spatial element in promoting new urbanization in China.It possesses theoretical and empirical value in the determination of the evolutionary patterns and development trends necessary...The metropolitan area is a crucial spatial element in promoting new urbanization in China.It possesses theoretical and empirical value in the determination of the evolutionary patterns and development trends necessary for regional integration and high-quality development.This study focused on Nanjing Metropolitan Area,the first national metropolitan area in China,and established three development scenarios by combining ecological–economic spatial conflict(EESC)zones and national key ecological functional areas.These scenarios simulate the spatial distribution of future land use and land cover change(LUCC)using the development zone planning function of the patch generation land use simulation(PLUS)model.The results show that:(1)Between 2000 and 2020,the most prominent characteristics of land use change were largely the massive expansion of built-up land and the significant decline of farmland,while changes in the area of ecological land were less evident.(2)EESC areas experienced significant changes over the past 20 years,but the overall level of conflict was low.Ecological land was the main land use type in the lowest-conflict area,while built-up land was the main land use type in the highest-conflict area.(3)From 2030 to 2050,further expansion of built-up areas is expected,with continued decrease of farmland.The regulation of these land use changes can be achieved through different development zone plans.The economic development scenario had the largest built-up land area,while the ecological protection scenario had the largest farmland area.This study simulates the spatial pattern changes in the metropolitan area based on spatial conflict patterns and national main functional area planning process,providing a scientific reference for future spatial planning and management.展开更多
Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover chang...Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.展开更多
Skull structures are important for biomechanical head simulations,but they are mostly reconstructed frommedical images.These reconstruction methods harmthe human body and have a long processing time.Currently,skull st...Skull structures are important for biomechanical head simulations,but they are mostly reconstructed frommedical images.These reconstruction methods harmthe human body and have a long processing time.Currently,skull structures canbe straightforwardly predictedfromthe head,but a fullheadshapemust be available.Most scanning devices can only capture the face shape.Consequently,a method that can quickly predict the full skull structures from the face is necessary.In this study,a novel face-to-skull prediction procedure is introduced.Given a threedimensional(3-D)face shape,a skull mesh could be predicted so that its shape would statistically fit the face shape.Several prediction strategies were conducted.The optimal prediction strategy with its optimal hyperparameters was experimentally selected through a ten-fold cross-validation with 329 subjects.As a result,the face-to-skull prediction strategy based on the relations between face head shape and back head shape,between face head shape and face skull shape,and between back head shape and back skull shape was optimal.The optimal mean mesh-to-mesh distance(mean±SD)between the predicted skull shapes and the ground truth skull shapes was 1.93±0.36 mm,and those between the predicted skull meshes and the ground truth skull meshes were 2.65±0.36 mm.Moreover,the prediction errors in back-skull and muscle attachment regions were 1.7432±0.5217 mm and 1.7671±0.3829 mm,respectively.These errors are within the acceptable range of facial muscle simulation.In perspective,this method will be employed in our clinical decision support system to enhance the accuracy of biomechanical head simulation based on a stereo fusion camera system.Moreover,we will also enhance the accuracy of the face-to-skull prediction by diversifying the dataset intomore varied geographical regions and genders.More types of parameters,such as BodyMass Index(BMI),coupled with head-to-skull thicknesses,will be fused with the proposed face-to-skull procedure.展开更多
Based on observed meteorological elements,photolysis rates(J-values)and pollutant concentrations,an automated J-values predicting system by machine learning(J-ML)has been developed to reproduce and predict the J-value...Based on observed meteorological elements,photolysis rates(J-values)and pollutant concentrations,an automated J-values predicting system by machine learning(J-ML)has been developed to reproduce and predict the J-values of O^(1)D,NO_(2),HONO,H_(2)O_(2),HCHO,and NO_(3),which are the crucial values for the prediction of the atmospheric oxidation capacity(AOC)and secondary pollutant concentrations such as ozone(O_(3)),secondary organic aerosols(SOA).The J-ML can self-select the optimal“Model+Hyperparameters”without human interference.The evaluated results showed that the J-ML had a good performance to reproduce the J-values wheremost of the correlation(R)coefficients exceed 0.93 and the accuracy(P)values are in the range of 0.68-0.83,comparing with the J-values from observations and from the tropospheric ultraviolet and visible(TUV)radiation model in Beijing,Chengdu,Guangzhou and Shanghai,China.The hourly prediction was also well performed with R from 0.78 to 0.81 for next 3-days and from 0.69 to 0.71 for next 7-days,respectively.Compared with O_(3)concentrations by using J-values from the TUV model,an emission-driven observation-based model(e-OBM)by using the J-values from the J-ML showed a 4%-12%increase in R and 4%-30%decrease in ME,indicating that the J-ML could be used as an excellent supplement to traditional numerical models.The feature importance analysis concluded that the key influential parameter was the surface solar downwards radiation for all J-values,and the other dominant factors for all J-values were 2-m mean temperature,O_(3),total cloud cover,boundary layer height,relative humidity and surface pressure.展开更多
In this work,one-step growth models using hyperspectral imaging(HSI)(400-1000 nm)were successfully developed in order to estimate the microbial loads,minimum growth temperature(T_(min))and maximum specific growth rate...In this work,one-step growth models using hyperspectral imaging(HSI)(400-1000 nm)were successfully developed in order to estimate the microbial loads,minimum growth temperature(T_(min))and maximum specific growth rate(μ_(max))of Brochothrix thermosphacta in chilled beef at isothermal temperatures(4-25℃).Three different methods were compared for model development,particularly using(Model Ⅰ)the predicted microbial loads from partial least squares regression of the whole spectral variables;(Model Ⅱ)the selected spectral variables related to microbial loads;and(Model Ⅲ)the first principal scores of HSI spectra by principal component analysis.Consequently,Model Ⅰ showed the best ability to predict the microbial loads of B.thermosphacta,with the coefficient of determination(R_(v)^(2))and root mean square error in internal validation(RMSEV)of 0.921 and 0.498(lg(CFU/g)).The T_(min)(-12.32℃)andμmax can be well estimated with R^(2) and root mean square error(RMSE)of 0.971 and 0.276(lg(CFU/g)),respectively.The upward trend ofμmax with temperature was similar to that of the plate count method.HSI technique thus can be used as a simple method for one-step growth simulation of B.thermosphacta in chilled beef during storage.展开更多
The operation time of external trucks in a container terminal is one of port operation key performance indicators concerned by port operators,external truck operators and related government authorities.With the traffi...The operation time of external trucks in a container terminal is one of port operation key performance indicators concerned by port operators,external truck operators and related government authorities.With the traffic big data combined with the operation characteristics of the container terminal,the system dynamics method is used to build the simulation model of the operation system for external trucks.The simulation results of the operation time of external trucks are consistent with the actual situation,which provides an effective way to eliminate the“black box”of the operation time of the external trucks.The model can also be applied in multiple scenarios by using the traffic big data,and the simulation results can be adopted by the relevant organizations.展开更多
Due to the impact of source-load prediction power errors and uncertainties,the actual operation of the park will have a wide range of fluctuations compared with the expected state,resulting in its inability to achieve...Due to the impact of source-load prediction power errors and uncertainties,the actual operation of the park will have a wide range of fluctuations compared with the expected state,resulting in its inability to achieve the expected economy.This paper constructs an operating simulation model of the park power grid operation considering demand response and proposes a multi-time scale operating simulation method that combines day-ahead optimization and model predictive control(MPC).In the day-ahead stage,an operating simulation plan that comprehensively considers the user’s side comfort and operating costs is proposed with a long-term time scale of 15 min.In order to cope with power fluctuations of photovoltaic,wind turbine and conventional load,MPC is used to track and roll correct the day-ahead operating simulation plan in the intra-day stage to meet the actual operating operation status of the park.Finally,the validity and economy of the operating simulation strategy are verified through the analysis of arithmetic examples.展开更多
A nested regional climate model has been experimentally used in the seasonal prediction at the China National Climate Center （NCC） since 2001. The NCC/IAP （Institute of Atmospheric Physics） T63 coupled GCM （CGCM...A nested regional climate model has been experimentally used in the seasonal prediction at the China National Climate Center （NCC） since 2001. The NCC/IAP （Institute of Atmospheric Physics） T63 coupled GCM （CGCM） provides the boundary and initial conditions for driving the regional climate model （RegCM_NCC）. The latter has a 60-km horizontal resolution and improved physical parameterization schemes including the mass flux cumulus parameterization scheme, the turbulent kinetic energy closure scheme （TKE） and an improved land process model （LPM）. The large-scale terrain features such as the Tibetan Plateau are included in the larger domain to produce the topographic forcing on the rain-producing systems. A sensitivity study of the East Asian climate with regard to the above physical processes has been presented in the first part of the present paper. This is the second part, as a continuation of Part Ⅰ. In order to verify the performance of the nested regional climate model, a ten-year simulation driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets has been made to explore the performance of the East Asian climate simulation and to identify the model＇s systematic errors. At the same time, comparative simulation experiments for 5 years between the RegCM2 and RegCM_NCC have been done to further understand their differences in simulation performance. Also, a ten-year hindcast （1991-2000） for summer （June-August）, the rainy season in China, has been undertaken. The preliminary results have shown that the RegCM_NCC is capable of predicting the major seasonal rain belts. The best predicted regions with high anomaly correlation coefficient （ACC） are located in the eastern part of West China, in Northeast China and in North China, where the CGCM has maximum prediction skill as well. This fact may reflect the importance of the largescale forcing. One significant improvement of the prediction derived from RegCM_NCC is the increase of ACC in the Yangtze River valley where the CGCM has a very low, even a negative, ACC. The reason behind this improvement is likely to be related to the more realistic representation of the large-scale terrain features of the Tibetan Plateau. Presumably, many rain-producing systems may be generated over or near the Tibetan Plateau and may then move eastward along the Yangtze River basin steered by upper-level westerly airflow, thus leading to enhancement of rainfalls in the mid and lower basins of the Yangtze River. The real-time experimental predictions for summer in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004 by using this nested RegCM-NCC were made. The results are basically reasonable compared with the observations.展开更多
In wheat breeding, it is a difficult task to select the most suitable parents for making crosses aimed at the improvement of both grain yield and grain quality. By quantitative genetics theory,the best cross should ha...In wheat breeding, it is a difficult task to select the most suitable parents for making crosses aimed at the improvement of both grain yield and grain quality. By quantitative genetics theory,the best cross should have high progeny mean and large genetic variance, and ideally yield and quality should be less negatively or positively correlated. Usefulness is built on population mean and genetic variance, which can be used to select the best crosses or populations to achieve the breeding objective. In this study, we first compared five models(RR-BLUP, Bayes A, Bayes B, Bayes ridge regression, and Bayes LASSO) for genomic selection(GS) with respect to prediction of usefulness of a biparental cross and two criteria for parental selection, using simulation. The two parental selection criteria were usefulness and midparent genomic estimated breeding value(GEBV). Marginal differences were observed among GS models. Parental selection with usefulness resulted in higher genetic gain than midparent GEBV. In a population of 57 wheat fixed lines genotyped with 7588 selected markers, usefulness of each biparental cross was calculated to evaluate the cross performance, a key target of breeding programs aimed at developing pure lines. It was observed that progeny mean was a major determinant of usefulness, but the usefulness ratings of quality traits were more influenced by their genetic variances in the progeny population. Near-zero or positive correlations between yield and major quality traits were found in some crosses, although they were negatively correlated in the population of parents. A selection index incorporating yield, extensibility, and maximum resistance was formed as a new trait and its usefulness for selecting the crosses with the best potential to improve yield and quality simultaneously was calculated. It was shown that applying the selection index improved both yield and quality while retaining more genetic variance in the selected progenies than the individual trait selection. It was concluded that combining genomic selection with simulation allows the prediction of cross performance in simulated progenies and thereby identifies candidate parents before crosses are made in the field for pure-line breeding programs.展开更多
The aim of the research was to create a prediction model for winter rapeseed yield.The constructed model enabled to perform simulation on 30 June,in the current year,immediately before harvesting.An artificial neural ...The aim of the research was to create a prediction model for winter rapeseed yield.The constructed model enabled to perform simulation on 30 June,in the current year,immediately before harvesting.An artificial neural network with multilayer perceptron(MLP) topology was used to build the predictive model.The model was created on the basis of meteorological data(air temperature and atmospheric precipitation) and mineral fertilization data.The data were collected in the period 2008–2017 from 291 productive fields located in Poland,in the southern part of the Opole region.The assessment of the forecast quality created on the basis of the neural model has been verified by defining forecast errors using relative approximation error(RAE),root mean square error(RMS),mean absolute error(MAE),and mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) metrics.An important feature of the created predictive model is the ability to forecast the current agrotechnical year based on current weather and fertilizing data.The lowest value of the MAPE error was obtained for a neural network model based on the MLP network of 21:21-13-6-1:1 structure,which was 9.43%.The performed sensitivity analysis of the network examined the factors that have the greatest impact on the yield of winter rape.The highest rank 1 was obtained by an independent variable with the average air temperature from 1 January to 15 April of 2017(designation by the T1-4_CY model).展开更多
Fracture prediction is a technical issue in the field of petroleum exploration and production worldwide.Although there are many approaches to predict the distribution of cracks underground,these approaches have some l...Fracture prediction is a technical issue in the field of petroleum exploration and production worldwide.Although there are many approaches to predict the distribution of cracks underground,these approaches have some limitations.To resolve these issues,we ascertained the relation between numerical simulations of tectonic stress and the predicted distribution of fractures from the perspective of geologic genesis,based on the characteristics of the shale reservoir in the Longmaxi Formation in Dingshan;the features of fracture development in this reservoir were considered.3 D finite element method(FEM)was applied in combination with rock mechanical parameters derived from the acoustic emissions.The paleotectonic stress field of the crack formation period was simulated for the Longmaxi Formation in the Dingshan area.The splitting factor in the study area was calculated based on the rock breaking criterion.The coefficient of fracture development was selected as the quantitative prediction classification criteria for the cracks.The results show that a higher coefficient of fracture development indicates a greater degree of fracture development.On the basis of the fracture development coefficient classification,a favorable area was identified for the development of fracture prediction in the study area.The prediction results indicate that the south of the Dingshan area and the DY3 well of the central region are favorable zones for fracture development.展开更多
A three-dimensional turbulent flow through an entire centrifugal pump is simulated using k-ε turbulence model modified by rotation and curvature, SIMPLEC method and body-fitted coordinate. The velocity and pressure f...A three-dimensional turbulent flow through an entire centrifugal pump is simulated using k-ε turbulence model modified by rotation and curvature, SIMPLEC method and body-fitted coordinate. The velocity and pressure fields are obtained for the pump under various working conditions, which is used to predict the head and hydraulic efficiency of the pump, and the results correspond well with the measured values. The calculation results indicate that the pressure is higher on the pressure side than that on the suction side of the blade; The relative velocity on the suction side gradually decreases from the impeller inlet to the outlet, while increases on the pressure side, it finally results in the lower relative velocity on the suction side and the higher one on the pressure side at the impeller outlet; The impeller flow field is asymmetric, i.e. the velocity and pressure fields arc totally different among all channels in the impeller; In the volute, the static pressure gradually increases with the flow route, and a large pressure gratitude occurs in the tongue; Secondary flow exists in the rear part of the spiral.展开更多
The evolution of microstructure seriously influences the forming processes and the quality of forgings in metal hot forming processes, it is therefore desirable to gain information on the microstructure evolution of a...The evolution of microstructure seriously influences the forming processes and the quality of forgings in metal hot forming processes, it is therefore desirable to gain information on the microstructure evolution of a process by means of computer simulation, not by conventional trial and error method that is time consuming, expensive and does not always lead to optimum results. Models for microstructural simulation and prediction were set up according to the evolution of microstructure during hot forming and cooling processes. The expanding extrusion complex hot forming and cooling processes, as an example, were simulated.展开更多
A deep understanding of explosive sensitivities and their factors is important for safe and reliable applications.However,quantitative prediction of the sensitivities is difficult.Here,reactive molecular dynamics simu...A deep understanding of explosive sensitivities and their factors is important for safe and reliable applications.However,quantitative prediction of the sensitivities is difficult.Here,reactive molecular dynamics simulation models for high-speed piston impacts on explosive supercells were established.Simulations were also performed to investigate shock-induced reactions of various high-energy explosives.The fraction of reacted explosive molecules in an initial supercell changed linearly with the propagation distance of the shock-wave front.The corresponding slope could be used as a reaction rate for a specific shock-loading velocity.Reaction rates that varied with the shock-loading pressure exhibited two-stage linearities with different slopes.The two inflection points corresponded to the initial and accelerated reactions,which respectively correlated to the thresholds of shock-induced ignition and detonation.Therefore,the ignition and detonation critical pressures could be determined.The sensitivity could then be a quantitative prediction of the critical pressure.The accuracies of the quantitative shock sensitivity predictions were verified by comparing the impact and shock sensitivities of common explosives and the characteristics of anisotropic shock-induced reactions.Molecular dynamics simulations quantitatively predict and rank shock sensitivities by using only crystal structures of the explosives.Overall,this method will enable the design and safe use of explosives.展开更多
By solving steady model of air flow diffusion and chemical reaction in loose coal, distribution of oxygen concentration and flow velocity magnitude were obtained. Compared the simulating results with critic value as w...By solving steady model of air flow diffusion and chemical reaction in loose coal, distribution of oxygen concentration and flow velocity magnitude were obtained. Compared the simulating results with critic value as well as duration of spontaneous combustion from large-scale spontaneous combustion experiment, 'three zones' of spontaneous combustion were partitioned and mining conditions to avoid spontaneous combustion were obtained. The above method was employed to partition 'three zones' in gob of fully mechanized top-coal caving long wall face and got fairly good result. Calculation of the above method is much smaller than simulating the whole process of coal spontaneous combustion, but the prediction precision can satisfy the demand of predicting and extinguishing spontaneous combustion in mining.展开更多
Urban construction land has relatively high human activity and high carbon emissions.Research on urban construction land prediction under carbon peak and neutrality goals(hereafter“dual carbon”goals)is important for...Urban construction land has relatively high human activity and high carbon emissions.Research on urban construction land prediction under carbon peak and neutrality goals(hereafter“dual carbon”goals)is important for territorial spatial planning.This study analyzed quantitative relationships between carbon emissions and urban construction land,and then modified the construction land demand prediction model.Thereafter,an integrated model for urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under“dual carbon”goals was developed,where urban construction land suitability was modified based on carbon source and sink capacity of different land-use types.Using Guangzhou as a case study,the integrated model was validated and applied to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of its urban construction land during 2030–2060 under baseline development and“dual carbon”goals scenarios.The simulation results showed that Guangzhou’s urban construction land expanded rapidly until 2030,with the spatial pattern not showing an intensive development trend.Guangzhou’s urban construction land expansion slowed during 2030–2060,with an average annual growth rate of 0.2%,and a centralized spatial pattern trend.Under the“dual carbon”goal scenario,Guangzhou’s urban construction land evolved into a polycentric development pattern in 2030.Compared with the baseline development scenario,urban construction land expansion in Guangzhou during 2030–2060 is slower,with an average annual growth rate of only 0.1%,and the polycentric development pattern of urban construction land was more prominent.Furthermore,land maintenance and growth,that is,a carbon sink,is more obvious under the“dual carbon”goals scenario,with the forest land area nearly 10.6%higher than that under the baseline development scenario.The study of urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under“dual carbon”goals provides a scientific decision-making support tool for territorial spatial planning,aiding in quantifying territorial spatial planning.展开更多
基金supported by Biological Breeding-National Science and Technology Major Project(2023ZD0407501)National Natural Science Foundation of China(31861143003)Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.
文摘Computer simulation permits answering theoretical and applied questions in animal and plant breeding.Blib is a novel multi-module simulation platform,which is able to handle more complicated genetic effects and models than most existing tools.In this study,we describe one major and unified application module of Blib,i.e.,ISB(abbreviated from in silico breeding),for simulating the three categories of breeding programs for developing clonal,pure-line and hybrid cultivars in plants.Genetic models on environments and breeding-targeted traits,one or several parental populations,and a number of breeding methods are key elements to run simulation experiments in ISB,which are arranged in three external input files by given formats.Applications of ISB are illustrated by three case studies,representing the three categories of plant breeding programs.Under the condition that 5000 F1 progenies were generated and tested from 50 heterozygous parents,Case study I showed that 50 crosses,each of 100 progenies,made the best balance between genetic achievement and field cost.In Case study II,one optimum breeding method was identified by which the pure lines with high yield and medium maturity could be developed.Case study III investigated the genetic consequence in hybrid breeding from five testers.One tester was identified for the simultaneous improvement in F1 hybrids and inbred lines.In summary,ISB identified a balanced crossing scheme,an optimum pure-line selection method,and an optimized tester in three case studies which are relevant to plant breeding.We believe the prediction by simulation would be highly required in front of the next generation of breeding to be driven by informatics and intelligence.
基金supported by the National Major Scientific Instruments and Equipment Development Project Funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(81827803)the Jiangsu Province Key Research and Development Program(Social Development)Project(BE2020705).
文摘Purpose:The major limitation of tumor microwave ablation(MWA)operation is the lack of predictability of the ablation zone before surgery.Operators rely on their individual experience to select a treatment plan,which is prone to either inadequate or excessive ablation.This paper aims to establish an ablation prediction model that guides MWA tumor surgical planning.Methods:An MWA process was first simulated by incorporating electromagnetic radiation equations,thermal equations,and optimized biological tissue parameters(dynamic dielectric and thermophysical parameters).The temperature distributions(the short/long diameters,and the total volume of the ablation zone)were then generated and verified by 60 cases ex vivo porcine liver experiments.Subsequently,a series of data were obtained from the simulated temperature distributions and to further fit the novel ablation coagulated area prediction model(ACAPM),thus rendering the ablation-dose table for the guiding surgical plan.The MWA clinical patient data and clinical devices suggested data were used to validate the accuracy and practicability of the established predicted model.Results:The 60 cases ex vivo porcine liver experiments demonstrated the accuracy of the simulated temperature distributions.Compared to traditional simulation methods,our approach reduces the long-diameter error of the ablation zone from 1.1 cm to 0.29 cm,achieving a 74%reduction in error.Further,the clinical data including the patients'operation results and devices provided values were consistent well with our predicated data,indicating the great potential of ACAPM to assist preoperative planning.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52274026)the National Key Research and Development Program(No.2022YFC2806504)the CNOOC Research Project(No.KJGG-2022-17-04 and NO.KJGG-2022-17-05).
文摘Effective isolation between the cement sheath and the sandstone is crucial for the development and production of oil and gas wells in sandstone formations.In this study,a cement-sandstone composite(CSC)was prepared,and based onμ-CT three-dimensional reconstruction imaging and finite element analysis(FEA)techniques,the stress distribution and potential failure mechanism at the cement-sandstone bonding interface under axial loading were analyzed.The key findings are as follows:(1)stress concentrations are highly likely to form at the gap between the cement and sandstone interface and around interfacial voids,with Von Mises stress reaching critical levels of 18.0-20.0 MPa at these locations,significantly exceeding the stress magnitudes in well-bonded regions;(2)the phenomenon of local stress concentration driven by interfacial defects can be identified as the main basis for predicting damage location in interfacial debonding and continuous shear under axial load;(3)ensuring tight cementation at the cement-sandstone interface and minimizing interfacial voids are paramount for preventing stress-induced failure;(4)the critical Von Mises stress value of 20 MPa at the interface defect can be used as a benchmark for material selection and designed to ensure long-term integrity in oil and gas well applications subjected to similar axial loads.These findings contribute to a more accurate understanding of the failure mechanism of the cement-sandstone interface and to the precise design of material properties,thereby ensuring the long-term integrity of oil and gas well applications subjected to similar axial loads.
基金The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),No.CUG2018123。
文摘Building the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)is one of China’s three national development policies in the new era.The ecological environment of the Yangtze River Economic Belt must be protected not only for regional economic development but also for regional ecological security and ecological progress in this region.This paper takes the ecological space of the Yangtze River Economic Belt as the research object,based on land use data in 2010 and 2015,and uses the FLUS model to simulate and predict the ecological space of the research area in 2035.The variation of the research area’s ecological space area and its four sub-zones has remarkable stability under diverse situations.Both the production space priority scenarios(S1)and living space priority scenarios(S2)saw a fall in ecological space area,with the former experiencing the highest reduction(a total reduction of 25,212 km^(2)).Under the ecological space priority scenarios(S3)and comprehensive space optimization scenario(S4),the ecological space area increased,and the ecological space area expanded even more under the former scenario(a total growth of 23,648 km^(2)).In Yunnan-Guizhou,the ecological space is relatively stable,with minimal signs of change.In Sichuan-Chongqing,the Sichuan Basin,Zoige Grassland,and Longmen Mountains were significant regions of area changes in ecological space.In the middle reaches of the Yangtze River,the ecological space changes mainly occur in the Wuyi Mountains,Mufu Mountains,and Dabie Mountains,as well as the surrounding waters of Dongting Lake.The Yangtze River Delta’s changes were mainly observed in the eastern Dabie Mountains and Jianghuai Hills.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42371185National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars,No.41901151。
文摘The metropolitan area is a crucial spatial element in promoting new urbanization in China.It possesses theoretical and empirical value in the determination of the evolutionary patterns and development trends necessary for regional integration and high-quality development.This study focused on Nanjing Metropolitan Area,the first national metropolitan area in China,and established three development scenarios by combining ecological–economic spatial conflict(EESC)zones and national key ecological functional areas.These scenarios simulate the spatial distribution of future land use and land cover change(LUCC)using the development zone planning function of the patch generation land use simulation(PLUS)model.The results show that:(1)Between 2000 and 2020,the most prominent characteristics of land use change were largely the massive expansion of built-up land and the significant decline of farmland,while changes in the area of ecological land were less evident.(2)EESC areas experienced significant changes over the past 20 years,but the overall level of conflict was low.Ecological land was the main land use type in the lowest-conflict area,while built-up land was the main land use type in the highest-conflict area.(3)From 2030 to 2050,further expansion of built-up areas is expected,with continued decrease of farmland.The regulation of these land use changes can be achieved through different development zone plans.The economic development scenario had the largest built-up land area,while the ecological protection scenario had the largest farmland area.This study simulates the spatial pattern changes in the metropolitan area based on spatial conflict patterns and national main functional area planning process,providing a scientific reference for future spatial planning and management.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.42176221,41901133)Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.XDA19060205)Seed project of Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.YIC-E3518907)。
文摘Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.
基金funded by the International University,VNU-HCM,under grant number T2023-01-BME.
文摘Skull structures are important for biomechanical head simulations,but they are mostly reconstructed frommedical images.These reconstruction methods harmthe human body and have a long processing time.Currently,skull structures canbe straightforwardly predictedfromthe head,but a fullheadshapemust be available.Most scanning devices can only capture the face shape.Consequently,a method that can quickly predict the full skull structures from the face is necessary.In this study,a novel face-to-skull prediction procedure is introduced.Given a threedimensional(3-D)face shape,a skull mesh could be predicted so that its shape would statistically fit the face shape.Several prediction strategies were conducted.The optimal prediction strategy with its optimal hyperparameters was experimentally selected through a ten-fold cross-validation with 329 subjects.As a result,the face-to-skull prediction strategy based on the relations between face head shape and back head shape,between face head shape and face skull shape,and between back head shape and back skull shape was optimal.The optimal mean mesh-to-mesh distance(mean±SD)between the predicted skull shapes and the ground truth skull shapes was 1.93±0.36 mm,and those between the predicted skull meshes and the ground truth skull meshes were 2.65±0.36 mm.Moreover,the prediction errors in back-skull and muscle attachment regions were 1.7432±0.5217 mm and 1.7671±0.3829 mm,respectively.These errors are within the acceptable range of facial muscle simulation.In perspective,this method will be employed in our clinical decision support system to enhance the accuracy of biomechanical head simulation based on a stereo fusion camera system.Moreover,we will also enhance the accuracy of the face-to-skull prediction by diversifying the dataset intomore varied geographical regions and genders.More types of parameters,such as BodyMass Index(BMI),coupled with head-to-skull thicknesses,will be fused with the proposed face-to-skull procedure.
基金supported by the National Key Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(No.2022YFC3701200)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42090030).
文摘Based on observed meteorological elements,photolysis rates(J-values)and pollutant concentrations,an automated J-values predicting system by machine learning(J-ML)has been developed to reproduce and predict the J-values of O^(1)D,NO_(2),HONO,H_(2)O_(2),HCHO,and NO_(3),which are the crucial values for the prediction of the atmospheric oxidation capacity(AOC)and secondary pollutant concentrations such as ozone(O_(3)),secondary organic aerosols(SOA).The J-ML can self-select the optimal“Model+Hyperparameters”without human interference.The evaluated results showed that the J-ML had a good performance to reproduce the J-values wheremost of the correlation(R)coefficients exceed 0.93 and the accuracy(P)values are in the range of 0.68-0.83,comparing with the J-values from observations and from the tropospheric ultraviolet and visible(TUV)radiation model in Beijing,Chengdu,Guangzhou and Shanghai,China.The hourly prediction was also well performed with R from 0.78 to 0.81 for next 3-days and from 0.69 to 0.71 for next 7-days,respectively.Compared with O_(3)concentrations by using J-values from the TUV model,an emission-driven observation-based model(e-OBM)by using the J-values from the J-ML showed a 4%-12%increase in R and 4%-30%decrease in ME,indicating that the J-ML could be used as an excellent supplement to traditional numerical models.The feature importance analysis concluded that the key influential parameter was the surface solar downwards radiation for all J-values,and the other dominant factors for all J-values were 2-m mean temperature,O_(3),total cloud cover,boundary layer height,relative humidity and surface pressure.
基金supported by Key Research&Development Program of Jiangsu Province in China(BE2020693)Major Project of Science and Technology of Anhui Province(201903a06020010)+1 种基金Joint Key Project of Science and Technology Innovation of Yangtze River Delta in Anhui Province(202004g01020009)the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(PAPD)。
文摘In this work,one-step growth models using hyperspectral imaging(HSI)(400-1000 nm)were successfully developed in order to estimate the microbial loads,minimum growth temperature(T_(min))and maximum specific growth rate(μ_(max))of Brochothrix thermosphacta in chilled beef at isothermal temperatures(4-25℃).Three different methods were compared for model development,particularly using(Model Ⅰ)the predicted microbial loads from partial least squares regression of the whole spectral variables;(Model Ⅱ)the selected spectral variables related to microbial loads;and(Model Ⅲ)the first principal scores of HSI spectra by principal component analysis.Consequently,Model Ⅰ showed the best ability to predict the microbial loads of B.thermosphacta,with the coefficient of determination(R_(v)^(2))and root mean square error in internal validation(RMSEV)of 0.921 and 0.498(lg(CFU/g)).The T_(min)(-12.32℃)andμmax can be well estimated with R^(2) and root mean square error(RMSE)of 0.971 and 0.276(lg(CFU/g)),respectively.The upward trend ofμmax with temperature was similar to that of the plate count method.HSI technique thus can be used as a simple method for one-step growth simulation of B.thermosphacta in chilled beef during storage.
文摘The operation time of external trucks in a container terminal is one of port operation key performance indicators concerned by port operators,external truck operators and related government authorities.With the traffic big data combined with the operation characteristics of the container terminal,the system dynamics method is used to build the simulation model of the operation system for external trucks.The simulation results of the operation time of external trucks are consistent with the actual situation,which provides an effective way to eliminate the“black box”of the operation time of the external trucks.The model can also be applied in multiple scenarios by using the traffic big data,and the simulation results can be adopted by the relevant organizations.
基金supported by the Science and Technology Project of State Grid Shanxi Electric Power Research Institute:Research on Data-Driven New Power System Operation Simulation and Multi Agent Control Strategy(52053022000F).
文摘Due to the impact of source-load prediction power errors and uncertainties,the actual operation of the park will have a wide range of fluctuations compared with the expected state,resulting in its inability to achieve the expected economy.This paper constructs an operating simulation model of the park power grid operation considering demand response and proposes a multi-time scale operating simulation method that combines day-ahead optimization and model predictive control(MPC).In the day-ahead stage,an operating simulation plan that comprehensively considers the user’s side comfort and operating costs is proposed with a long-term time scale of 15 min.In order to cope with power fluctuations of photovoltaic,wind turbine and conventional load,MPC is used to track and roll correct the day-ahead operating simulation plan in the intra-day stage to meet the actual operating operation status of the park.Finally,the validity and economy of the operating simulation strategy are verified through the analysis of arithmetic examples.
文摘A nested regional climate model has been experimentally used in the seasonal prediction at the China National Climate Center （NCC） since 2001. The NCC/IAP （Institute of Atmospheric Physics） T63 coupled GCM （CGCM） provides the boundary and initial conditions for driving the regional climate model （RegCM_NCC）. The latter has a 60-km horizontal resolution and improved physical parameterization schemes including the mass flux cumulus parameterization scheme, the turbulent kinetic energy closure scheme （TKE） and an improved land process model （LPM）. The large-scale terrain features such as the Tibetan Plateau are included in the larger domain to produce the topographic forcing on the rain-producing systems. A sensitivity study of the East Asian climate with regard to the above physical processes has been presented in the first part of the present paper. This is the second part, as a continuation of Part Ⅰ. In order to verify the performance of the nested regional climate model, a ten-year simulation driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets has been made to explore the performance of the East Asian climate simulation and to identify the model＇s systematic errors. At the same time, comparative simulation experiments for 5 years between the RegCM2 and RegCM_NCC have been done to further understand their differences in simulation performance. Also, a ten-year hindcast （1991-2000） for summer （June-August）, the rainy season in China, has been undertaken. The preliminary results have shown that the RegCM_NCC is capable of predicting the major seasonal rain belts. The best predicted regions with high anomaly correlation coefficient （ACC） are located in the eastern part of West China, in Northeast China and in North China, where the CGCM has maximum prediction skill as well. This fact may reflect the importance of the largescale forcing. One significant improvement of the prediction derived from RegCM_NCC is the increase of ACC in the Yangtze River valley where the CGCM has a very low, even a negative, ACC. The reason behind this improvement is likely to be related to the more realistic representation of the large-scale terrain features of the Tibetan Plateau. Presumably, many rain-producing systems may be generated over or near the Tibetan Plateau and may then move eastward along the Yangtze River basin steered by upper-level westerly airflow, thus leading to enhancement of rainfalls in the mid and lower basins of the Yangtze River. The real-time experimental predictions for summer in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004 by using this nested RegCM-NCC were made. The results are basically reasonable compared with the observations.
基金supported by the National Key Basic Research Program of China(2014CB138105)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(31371623)
文摘In wheat breeding, it is a difficult task to select the most suitable parents for making crosses aimed at the improvement of both grain yield and grain quality. By quantitative genetics theory,the best cross should have high progeny mean and large genetic variance, and ideally yield and quality should be less negatively or positively correlated. Usefulness is built on population mean and genetic variance, which can be used to select the best crosses or populations to achieve the breeding objective. In this study, we first compared five models(RR-BLUP, Bayes A, Bayes B, Bayes ridge regression, and Bayes LASSO) for genomic selection(GS) with respect to prediction of usefulness of a biparental cross and two criteria for parental selection, using simulation. The two parental selection criteria were usefulness and midparent genomic estimated breeding value(GEBV). Marginal differences were observed among GS models. Parental selection with usefulness resulted in higher genetic gain than midparent GEBV. In a population of 57 wheat fixed lines genotyped with 7588 selected markers, usefulness of each biparental cross was calculated to evaluate the cross performance, a key target of breeding programs aimed at developing pure lines. It was observed that progeny mean was a major determinant of usefulness, but the usefulness ratings of quality traits were more influenced by their genetic variances in the progeny population. Near-zero or positive correlations between yield and major quality traits were found in some crosses, although they were negatively correlated in the population of parents. A selection index incorporating yield, extensibility, and maximum resistance was formed as a new trait and its usefulness for selecting the crosses with the best potential to improve yield and quality simultaneously was calculated. It was shown that applying the selection index improved both yield and quality while retaining more genetic variance in the selected progenies than the individual trait selection. It was concluded that combining genomic selection with simulation allows the prediction of cross performance in simulated progenies and thereby identifies candidate parents before crosses are made in the field for pure-line breeding programs.
文摘The aim of the research was to create a prediction model for winter rapeseed yield.The constructed model enabled to perform simulation on 30 June,in the current year,immediately before harvesting.An artificial neural network with multilayer perceptron(MLP) topology was used to build the predictive model.The model was created on the basis of meteorological data(air temperature and atmospheric precipitation) and mineral fertilization data.The data were collected in the period 2008–2017 from 291 productive fields located in Poland,in the southern part of the Opole region.The assessment of the forecast quality created on the basis of the neural model has been verified by defining forecast errors using relative approximation error(RAE),root mean square error(RMS),mean absolute error(MAE),and mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) metrics.An important feature of the created predictive model is the ability to forecast the current agrotechnical year based on current weather and fertilizing data.The lowest value of the MAPE error was obtained for a neural network model based on the MLP network of 21:21-13-6-1:1 structure,which was 9.43%.The performed sensitivity analysis of the network examined the factors that have the greatest impact on the yield of winter rape.The highest rank 1 was obtained by an independent variable with the average air temperature from 1 January to 15 April of 2017(designation by the T1-4_CY model).
基金supported by the Open Fund (PLN 201718) of State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and ExploitationSouthwest Petroleum University and the Open Fund (SEC-2018-04) of Collaborative Innovation Center of Shale Gas Resources and EnvironmentSouthwest Petroleum University and the National Science and Technology Major Project of China (2017ZX05036003-003)
文摘Fracture prediction is a technical issue in the field of petroleum exploration and production worldwide.Although there are many approaches to predict the distribution of cracks underground,these approaches have some limitations.To resolve these issues,we ascertained the relation between numerical simulations of tectonic stress and the predicted distribution of fractures from the perspective of geologic genesis,based on the characteristics of the shale reservoir in the Longmaxi Formation in Dingshan;the features of fracture development in this reservoir were considered.3 D finite element method(FEM)was applied in combination with rock mechanical parameters derived from the acoustic emissions.The paleotectonic stress field of the crack formation period was simulated for the Longmaxi Formation in the Dingshan area.The splitting factor in the study area was calculated based on the rock breaking criterion.The coefficient of fracture development was selected as the quantitative prediction classification criteria for the cracks.The results show that a higher coefficient of fracture development indicates a greater degree of fracture development.On the basis of the fracture development coefficient classification,a favorable area was identified for the development of fracture prediction in the study area.The prediction results indicate that the south of the Dingshan area and the DY3 well of the central region are favorable zones for fracture development.
基金This project is supported by Provincial Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu, China(No.BK2004406)Provincial Innovation Foundation for Graduate Students of Jiangsu, China(No.1223000053
文摘A three-dimensional turbulent flow through an entire centrifugal pump is simulated using k-ε turbulence model modified by rotation and curvature, SIMPLEC method and body-fitted coordinate. The velocity and pressure fields are obtained for the pump under various working conditions, which is used to predict the head and hydraulic efficiency of the pump, and the results correspond well with the measured values. The calculation results indicate that the pressure is higher on the pressure side than that on the suction side of the blade; The relative velocity on the suction side gradually decreases from the impeller inlet to the outlet, while increases on the pressure side, it finally results in the lower relative velocity on the suction side and the higher one on the pressure side at the impeller outlet; The impeller flow field is asymmetric, i.e. the velocity and pressure fields arc totally different among all channels in the impeller; In the volute, the static pressure gradually increases with the flow route, and a large pressure gratitude occurs in the tongue; Secondary flow exists in the rear part of the spiral.
文摘The evolution of microstructure seriously influences the forming processes and the quality of forgings in metal hot forming processes, it is therefore desirable to gain information on the microstructure evolution of a process by means of computer simulation, not by conventional trial and error method that is time consuming, expensive and does not always lead to optimum results. Models for microstructural simulation and prediction were set up according to the evolution of microstructure during hot forming and cooling processes. The expanding extrusion complex hot forming and cooling processes, as an example, were simulated.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11832006).
文摘A deep understanding of explosive sensitivities and their factors is important for safe and reliable applications.However,quantitative prediction of the sensitivities is difficult.Here,reactive molecular dynamics simulation models for high-speed piston impacts on explosive supercells were established.Simulations were also performed to investigate shock-induced reactions of various high-energy explosives.The fraction of reacted explosive molecules in an initial supercell changed linearly with the propagation distance of the shock-wave front.The corresponding slope could be used as a reaction rate for a specific shock-loading velocity.Reaction rates that varied with the shock-loading pressure exhibited two-stage linearities with different slopes.The two inflection points corresponded to the initial and accelerated reactions,which respectively correlated to the thresholds of shock-induced ignition and detonation.Therefore,the ignition and detonation critical pressures could be determined.The sensitivity could then be a quantitative prediction of the critical pressure.The accuracies of the quantitative shock sensitivity predictions were verified by comparing the impact and shock sensitivities of common explosives and the characteristics of anisotropic shock-induced reactions.Molecular dynamics simulations quantitatively predict and rank shock sensitivities by using only crystal structures of the explosives.Overall,this method will enable the design and safe use of explosives.
基金Supported by Natural Science Program of Shaanxi Province Education Department (05JK261)
文摘By solving steady model of air flow diffusion and chemical reaction in loose coal, distribution of oxygen concentration and flow velocity magnitude were obtained. Compared the simulating results with critic value as well as duration of spontaneous combustion from large-scale spontaneous combustion experiment, 'three zones' of spontaneous combustion were partitioned and mining conditions to avoid spontaneous combustion were obtained. The above method was employed to partition 'three zones' in gob of fully mechanized top-coal caving long wall face and got fairly good result. Calculation of the above method is much smaller than simulating the whole process of coal spontaneous combustion, but the prediction precision can satisfy the demand of predicting and extinguishing spontaneous combustion in mining.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41971233。
文摘Urban construction land has relatively high human activity and high carbon emissions.Research on urban construction land prediction under carbon peak and neutrality goals(hereafter“dual carbon”goals)is important for territorial spatial planning.This study analyzed quantitative relationships between carbon emissions and urban construction land,and then modified the construction land demand prediction model.Thereafter,an integrated model for urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under“dual carbon”goals was developed,where urban construction land suitability was modified based on carbon source and sink capacity of different land-use types.Using Guangzhou as a case study,the integrated model was validated and applied to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of its urban construction land during 2030–2060 under baseline development and“dual carbon”goals scenarios.The simulation results showed that Guangzhou’s urban construction land expanded rapidly until 2030,with the spatial pattern not showing an intensive development trend.Guangzhou’s urban construction land expansion slowed during 2030–2060,with an average annual growth rate of 0.2%,and a centralized spatial pattern trend.Under the“dual carbon”goal scenario,Guangzhou’s urban construction land evolved into a polycentric development pattern in 2030.Compared with the baseline development scenario,urban construction land expansion in Guangzhou during 2030–2060 is slower,with an average annual growth rate of only 0.1%,and the polycentric development pattern of urban construction land was more prominent.Furthermore,land maintenance and growth,that is,a carbon sink,is more obvious under the“dual carbon”goals scenario,with the forest land area nearly 10.6%higher than that under the baseline development scenario.The study of urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under“dual carbon”goals provides a scientific decision-making support tool for territorial spatial planning,aiding in quantifying territorial spatial planning.
