Computer simulation permits answering theoretical and applied questions in animal and plant breeding.Blib is a novel multi-module simulation platform,which is able to handle more complicated genetic effects and models...Computer simulation permits answering theoretical and applied questions in animal and plant breeding.Blib is a novel multi-module simulation platform,which is able to handle more complicated genetic effects and models than most existing tools.In this study,we describe one major and unified application module of Blib,i.e.,ISB(abbreviated from in silico breeding),for simulating the three categories of breeding programs for developing clonal,pure-line and hybrid cultivars in plants.Genetic models on environments and breeding-targeted traits,one or several parental populations,and a number of breeding methods are key elements to run simulation experiments in ISB,which are arranged in three external input files by given formats.Applications of ISB are illustrated by three case studies,representing the three categories of plant breeding programs.Under the condition that 5000 F1 progenies were generated and tested from 50 heterozygous parents,Case study I showed that 50 crosses,each of 100 progenies,made the best balance between genetic achievement and field cost.In Case study II,one optimum breeding method was identified by which the pure lines with high yield and medium maturity could be developed.Case study III investigated the genetic consequence in hybrid breeding from five testers.One tester was identified for the simultaneous improvement in F1 hybrids and inbred lines.In summary,ISB identified a balanced crossing scheme,an optimum pure-line selection method,and an optimized tester in three case studies which are relevant to plant breeding.We believe the prediction by simulation would be highly required in front of the next generation of breeding to be driven by informatics and intelligence.展开更多
Purpose:The major limitation of tumor microwave ablation(MWA)operation is the lack of predictability of the ablation zone before surgery.Operators rely on their individual experience to select a treatment plan,which i...Purpose:The major limitation of tumor microwave ablation(MWA)operation is the lack of predictability of the ablation zone before surgery.Operators rely on their individual experience to select a treatment plan,which is prone to either inadequate or excessive ablation.This paper aims to establish an ablation prediction model that guides MWA tumor surgical planning.Methods:An MWA process was first simulated by incorporating electromagnetic radiation equations,thermal equations,and optimized biological tissue parameters(dynamic dielectric and thermophysical parameters).The temperature distributions(the short/long diameters,and the total volume of the ablation zone)were then generated and verified by 60 cases ex vivo porcine liver experiments.Subsequently,a series of data were obtained from the simulated temperature distributions and to further fit the novel ablation coagulated area prediction model(ACAPM),thus rendering the ablation-dose table for the guiding surgical plan.The MWA clinical patient data and clinical devices suggested data were used to validate the accuracy and practicability of the established predicted model.Results:The 60 cases ex vivo porcine liver experiments demonstrated the accuracy of the simulated temperature distributions.Compared to traditional simulation methods,our approach reduces the long-diameter error of the ablation zone from 1.1 cm to 0.29 cm,achieving a 74%reduction in error.Further,the clinical data including the patients'operation results and devices provided values were consistent well with our predicated data,indicating the great potential of ACAPM to assist preoperative planning.展开更多
Effective isolation between the cement sheath and the sandstone is crucial for the development and production of oil and gas wells in sandstone formations.In this study,a cement-sandstone composite(CSC)was prepared,an...Effective isolation between the cement sheath and the sandstone is crucial for the development and production of oil and gas wells in sandstone formations.In this study,a cement-sandstone composite(CSC)was prepared,and based onμ-CT three-dimensional reconstruction imaging and finite element analysis(FEA)techniques,the stress distribution and potential failure mechanism at the cement-sandstone bonding interface under axial loading were analyzed.The key findings are as follows:(1)stress concentrations are highly likely to form at the gap between the cement and sandstone interface and around interfacial voids,with Von Mises stress reaching critical levels of 18.0-20.0 MPa at these locations,significantly exceeding the stress magnitudes in well-bonded regions;(2)the phenomenon of local stress concentration driven by interfacial defects can be identified as the main basis for predicting damage location in interfacial debonding and continuous shear under axial load;(3)ensuring tight cementation at the cement-sandstone interface and minimizing interfacial voids are paramount for preventing stress-induced failure;(4)the critical Von Mises stress value of 20 MPa at the interface defect can be used as a benchmark for material selection and designed to ensure long-term integrity in oil and gas well applications subjected to similar axial loads.These findings contribute to a more accurate understanding of the failure mechanism of the cement-sandstone interface and to the precise design of material properties,thereby ensuring the long-term integrity of oil and gas well applications subjected to similar axial loads.展开更多
Building the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)is one of China’s three national development policies in the new era.The ecological environment of the Yangtze River Economic Belt must be protected not only for regional...Building the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)is one of China’s three national development policies in the new era.The ecological environment of the Yangtze River Economic Belt must be protected not only for regional economic development but also for regional ecological security and ecological progress in this region.This paper takes the ecological space of the Yangtze River Economic Belt as the research object,based on land use data in 2010 and 2015,and uses the FLUS model to simulate and predict the ecological space of the research area in 2035.The variation of the research area’s ecological space area and its four sub-zones has remarkable stability under diverse situations.Both the production space priority scenarios(S1)and living space priority scenarios(S2)saw a fall in ecological space area,with the former experiencing the highest reduction(a total reduction of 25,212 km^(2)).Under the ecological space priority scenarios(S3)and comprehensive space optimization scenario(S4),the ecological space area increased,and the ecological space area expanded even more under the former scenario(a total growth of 23,648 km^(2)).In Yunnan-Guizhou,the ecological space is relatively stable,with minimal signs of change.In Sichuan-Chongqing,the Sichuan Basin,Zoige Grassland,and Longmen Mountains were significant regions of area changes in ecological space.In the middle reaches of the Yangtze River,the ecological space changes mainly occur in the Wuyi Mountains,Mufu Mountains,and Dabie Mountains,as well as the surrounding waters of Dongting Lake.The Yangtze River Delta’s changes were mainly observed in the eastern Dabie Mountains and Jianghuai Hills.展开更多
Machine learning-assisted methods for rapid and accurate prediction of temperature field,mushy zone,and grain size were proposed for the heating−cooling combined mold(HCCM)horizontal continuous casting of C70250 alloy...Machine learning-assisted methods for rapid and accurate prediction of temperature field,mushy zone,and grain size were proposed for the heating−cooling combined mold(HCCM)horizontal continuous casting of C70250 alloy plates.First,finite element simulations of casting processes were carried out with various parameters to build a dataset.Subsequently,different machine learning algorithms were employed to achieve high precision in predicting temperature fields,mushy zone locations,mushy zone inclination angle,and billet grain size.Finally,the process parameters were quickly optimized using a strategy consisting of random generation,prediction,and screening,allowing the mushy zone to be controlled to the desired target.The optimized parameters are 1234℃for heating mold temperature,47 mm/min for casting speed,and 10 L/min for cooling water flow rate.The optimized mushy zone is located in the middle of the second heat insulation section and has an inclination angle of roughly 7°.展开更多
A nested regional climate model has been experimentally used in the seasonal prediction at the China National Climate Center （NCC） since 2001. The NCC/IAP （Institute of Atmospheric Physics） T63 coupled GCM （CGCM...A nested regional climate model has been experimentally used in the seasonal prediction at the China National Climate Center （NCC） since 2001. The NCC/IAP （Institute of Atmospheric Physics） T63 coupled GCM （CGCM） provides the boundary and initial conditions for driving the regional climate model （RegCM_NCC）. The latter has a 60-km horizontal resolution and improved physical parameterization schemes including the mass flux cumulus parameterization scheme, the turbulent kinetic energy closure scheme （TKE） and an improved land process model （LPM）. The large-scale terrain features such as the Tibetan Plateau are included in the larger domain to produce the topographic forcing on the rain-producing systems. A sensitivity study of the East Asian climate with regard to the above physical processes has been presented in the first part of the present paper. This is the second part, as a continuation of Part Ⅰ. In order to verify the performance of the nested regional climate model, a ten-year simulation driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets has been made to explore the performance of the East Asian climate simulation and to identify the model＇s systematic errors. At the same time, comparative simulation experiments for 5 years between the RegCM2 and RegCM_NCC have been done to further understand their differences in simulation performance. Also, a ten-year hindcast （1991-2000） for summer （June-August）, the rainy season in China, has been undertaken. The preliminary results have shown that the RegCM_NCC is capable of predicting the major seasonal rain belts. The best predicted regions with high anomaly correlation coefficient （ACC） are located in the eastern part of West China, in Northeast China and in North China, where the CGCM has maximum prediction skill as well. This fact may reflect the importance of the largescale forcing. One significant improvement of the prediction derived from RegCM_NCC is the increase of ACC in the Yangtze River valley where the CGCM has a very low, even a negative, ACC. The reason behind this improvement is likely to be related to the more realistic representation of the large-scale terrain features of the Tibetan Plateau. Presumably, many rain-producing systems may be generated over or near the Tibetan Plateau and may then move eastward along the Yangtze River basin steered by upper-level westerly airflow, thus leading to enhancement of rainfalls in the mid and lower basins of the Yangtze River. The real-time experimental predictions for summer in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004 by using this nested RegCM-NCC were made. The results are basically reasonable compared with the observations.展开更多
A three-dimensional turbulent flow through an entire centrifugal pump is simulated using k-εturbulence model modified by rotation and curvature,SIMPLEC method and body-fitted coordinate.The velocity and pressure fiel...A three-dimensional turbulent flow through an entire centrifugal pump is simulated using k-εturbulence model modified by rotation and curvature,SIMPLEC method and body-fitted coordinate.The velocity and pressure fields are obtained for the pump under various working conditions,which is used to predict the head and hydraulic efficiency of the pump,and the results correspond well with the measured values.The calculation results indicate that the pressure is higher on the pressure side than that on the suction side of the blade;The relative velocity on the suction side gradually decreases from the impeller inlet to the outlet,while increases on the pressure side,it finally results in the lower relative velocity on the suction side and the higher one on the pressure side at the impeller outlet;The impeller flow field is asymmetric,i.e.the velocity and pressure fields arc totally different among all channels in the impeller;In the volute,the static pressure gradually increases with the flow route,and a large pressure gratitude occurs in the tongue;Secondary flow exists in the rear part of the spiral.展开更多
In wheat breeding, it is a difficult task to select the most suitable parents for making crosses aimed at the improvement of both grain yield and grain quality. By quantitative genetics theory,the best cross should ha...In wheat breeding, it is a difficult task to select the most suitable parents for making crosses aimed at the improvement of both grain yield and grain quality. By quantitative genetics theory,the best cross should have high progeny mean and large genetic variance, and ideally yield and quality should be less negatively or positively correlated. Usefulness is built on population mean and genetic variance, which can be used to select the best crosses or populations to achieve the breeding objective. In this study, we first compared five models(RR-BLUP, Bayes A, Bayes B, Bayes ridge regression, and Bayes LASSO) for genomic selection(GS) with respect to prediction of usefulness of a biparental cross and two criteria for parental selection, using simulation. The two parental selection criteria were usefulness and midparent genomic estimated breeding value(GEBV). Marginal differences were observed among GS models. Parental selection with usefulness resulted in higher genetic gain than midparent GEBV. In a population of 57 wheat fixed lines genotyped with 7588 selected markers, usefulness of each biparental cross was calculated to evaluate the cross performance, a key target of breeding programs aimed at developing pure lines. It was observed that progeny mean was a major determinant of usefulness, but the usefulness ratings of quality traits were more influenced by their genetic variances in the progeny population. Near-zero or positive correlations between yield and major quality traits were found in some crosses, although they were negatively correlated in the population of parents. A selection index incorporating yield, extensibility, and maximum resistance was formed as a new trait and its usefulness for selecting the crosses with the best potential to improve yield and quality simultaneously was calculated. It was shown that applying the selection index improved both yield and quality while retaining more genetic variance in the selected progenies than the individual trait selection. It was concluded that combining genomic selection with simulation allows the prediction of cross performance in simulated progenies and thereby identifies candidate parents before crosses are made in the field for pure-line breeding programs.展开更多
The aim of the research was to create a prediction model for winter rapeseed yield.The constructed model enabled to perform simulation on 30 June,in the current year,immediately before harvesting.An artificial neural ...The aim of the research was to create a prediction model for winter rapeseed yield.The constructed model enabled to perform simulation on 30 June,in the current year,immediately before harvesting.An artificial neural network with multilayer perceptron(MLP) topology was used to build the predictive model.The model was created on the basis of meteorological data(air temperature and atmospheric precipitation) and mineral fertilization data.The data were collected in the period 2008–2017 from 291 productive fields located in Poland,in the southern part of the Opole region.The assessment of the forecast quality created on the basis of the neural model has been verified by defining forecast errors using relative approximation error(RAE),root mean square error(RMS),mean absolute error(MAE),and mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) metrics.An important feature of the created predictive model is the ability to forecast the current agrotechnical year based on current weather and fertilizing data.The lowest value of the MAPE error was obtained for a neural network model based on the MLP network of 21:21-13-6-1:1 structure,which was 9.43%.The performed sensitivity analysis of the network examined the factors that have the greatest impact on the yield of winter rape.The highest rank 1 was obtained by an independent variable with the average air temperature from 1 January to 15 April of 2017(designation by the T1-4_CY model).展开更多
Fracture prediction is a technical issue in the field of petroleum exploration and production worldwide.Although there are many approaches to predict the distribution of cracks underground,these approaches have some l...Fracture prediction is a technical issue in the field of petroleum exploration and production worldwide.Although there are many approaches to predict the distribution of cracks underground,these approaches have some limitations.To resolve these issues,we ascertained the relation between numerical simulations of tectonic stress and the predicted distribution of fractures from the perspective of geologic genesis,based on the characteristics of the shale reservoir in the Longmaxi Formation in Dingshan;the features of fracture development in this reservoir were considered.3 D finite element method(FEM)was applied in combination with rock mechanical parameters derived from the acoustic emissions.The paleotectonic stress field of the crack formation period was simulated for the Longmaxi Formation in the Dingshan area.The splitting factor in the study area was calculated based on the rock breaking criterion.The coefficient of fracture development was selected as the quantitative prediction classification criteria for the cracks.The results show that a higher coefficient of fracture development indicates a greater degree of fracture development.On the basis of the fracture development coefficient classification,a favorable area was identified for the development of fracture prediction in the study area.The prediction results indicate that the south of the Dingshan area and the DY3 well of the central region are favorable zones for fracture development.展开更多
The evolution of microstructure seriously influences the forming processes and the quality of forgings in metal hot forming processes, it is therefore desirable to gain information on the microstructure evolution of a...The evolution of microstructure seriously influences the forming processes and the quality of forgings in metal hot forming processes, it is therefore desirable to gain information on the microstructure evolution of a process by means of computer simulation, not by conventional trial and error method that is time consuming, expensive and does not always lead to optimum results. Models for microstructural simulation and prediction were set up according to the evolution of microstructure during hot forming and cooling processes. The expanding extrusion complex hot forming and cooling processes, as an example, were simulated.展开更多
A deep understanding of explosive sensitivities and their factors is important for safe and reliable applications.However,quantitative prediction of the sensitivities is difficult.Here,reactive molecular dynamics simu...A deep understanding of explosive sensitivities and their factors is important for safe and reliable applications.However,quantitative prediction of the sensitivities is difficult.Here,reactive molecular dynamics simulation models for high-speed piston impacts on explosive supercells were established.Simulations were also performed to investigate shock-induced reactions of various high-energy explosives.The fraction of reacted explosive molecules in an initial supercell changed linearly with the propagation distance of the shock-wave front.The corresponding slope could be used as a reaction rate for a specific shock-loading velocity.Reaction rates that varied with the shock-loading pressure exhibited two-stage linearities with different slopes.The two inflection points corresponded to the initial and accelerated reactions,which respectively correlated to the thresholds of shock-induced ignition and detonation.Therefore,the ignition and detonation critical pressures could be determined.The sensitivity could then be a quantitative prediction of the critical pressure.The accuracies of the quantitative shock sensitivity predictions were verified by comparing the impact and shock sensitivities of common explosives and the characteristics of anisotropic shock-induced reactions.Molecular dynamics simulations quantitatively predict and rank shock sensitivities by using only crystal structures of the explosives.Overall,this method will enable the design and safe use of explosives.展开更多
By solving steady model of air flow diffusion and chemical reaction in loose coal, distribution of oxygen concentration and flow velocity magnitude were obtained. Compared the simulating results with critic value as w...By solving steady model of air flow diffusion and chemical reaction in loose coal, distribution of oxygen concentration and flow velocity magnitude were obtained. Compared the simulating results with critic value as well as duration of spontaneous combustion from large-scale spontaneous combustion experiment, 'three zones' of spontaneous combustion were partitioned and mining conditions to avoid spontaneous combustion were obtained. The above method was employed to partition 'three zones' in gob of fully mechanized top-coal caving long wall face and got fairly good result. Calculation of the above method is much smaller than simulating the whole process of coal spontaneous combustion, but the prediction precision can satisfy the demand of predicting and extinguishing spontaneous combustion in mining.展开更多
Urban construction land has relatively high human activity and high carbon emissions.Research on urban construction land prediction under carbon peak and neutrality goals(hereafter“dual carbon”goals)is important for...Urban construction land has relatively high human activity and high carbon emissions.Research on urban construction land prediction under carbon peak and neutrality goals(hereafter“dual carbon”goals)is important for territorial spatial planning.This study analyzed quantitative relationships between carbon emissions and urban construction land,and then modified the construction land demand prediction model.Thereafter,an integrated model for urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under“dual carbon”goals was developed,where urban construction land suitability was modified based on carbon source and sink capacity of different land-use types.Using Guangzhou as a case study,the integrated model was validated and applied to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of its urban construction land during 2030–2060 under baseline development and“dual carbon”goals scenarios.The simulation results showed that Guangzhou’s urban construction land expanded rapidly until 2030,with the spatial pattern not showing an intensive development trend.Guangzhou’s urban construction land expansion slowed during 2030–2060,with an average annual growth rate of 0.2%,and a centralized spatial pattern trend.Under the“dual carbon”goal scenario,Guangzhou’s urban construction land evolved into a polycentric development pattern in 2030.Compared with the baseline development scenario,urban construction land expansion in Guangzhou during 2030–2060 is slower,with an average annual growth rate of only 0.1%,and the polycentric development pattern of urban construction land was more prominent.Furthermore,land maintenance and growth,that is,a carbon sink,is more obvious under the“dual carbon”goals scenario,with the forest land area nearly 10.6%higher than that under the baseline development scenario.The study of urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under“dual carbon”goals provides a scientific decision-making support tool for territorial spatial planning,aiding in quantifying territorial spatial planning.展开更多
As the rapid growth of population and social economy, the situation of water resources shortage in Beijing city becomes more and more serious. Karst groundwater in Beijing has great potential for development. The reas...As the rapid growth of population and social economy, the situation of water resources shortage in Beijing city becomes more and more serious. Karst groundwater in Beijing has great potential for development. The reasonable exploitation of karst groundwater can enhance the water-supply stability of Beijing city. Firstly, the distribution of springs has been investigated in Fangshan, Beijing, and the characteristics of these springs have also been analyzed. Secondly, the hydrogeological conceptual model has been built, based on this, the groundwater flow numerical simulation model was established, and the parameter identification and validation of the model were performed under groundwater level and spring discharge. The results shows that the simulated values of groundwater level and spring discharge are very close to measured values, and the model can be used for groundwater resources evaluation and spring discharge prediction. Finally, a reasonable exploitation design has been developed with three exploitation scenarios considering the spring discharge protection; meanwhile, the quantity of groundwater resources was evaluated in the karst aquifer. The simulation results indicate that different exploitation yields have a significant impact on spring discharge; and the effective measures should be taken to protect the spring discharge.展开更多
Aiming to the puzzle that the inner load of nonlinear synthesis transmission system is difficult to obtain,a new kind of virtual prototype establishment and simulation method is put forward. The influence on nonlinear...Aiming to the puzzle that the inner load of nonlinear synthesis transmission system is difficult to obtain,a new kind of virtual prototype establishment and simulation method is put forward. The influence on nonlinear vibration with flexible rotor, bearing backlash is analyzed based on a virtual prototype. To validate the virtual prototype of nonlinear gear transmission system, the corresponding test platform is established. The consistency between simulation results and test results proves that the simulation results of the virtual prototype can be used to calculate the fatigue reliability life of key components. A new kind of fatigue reliability life prediction method of gear system considering multi-random parameter distribution is put forward based on the fativipatistic theory. Considering the periodicity of gear meshing, linear interpolation method is adopted to obtain the stress-time course of random load spectrum based on the gear's complicated torque provided by virtual prototype.The gear's P-Sa-Sm-N curved cluster can be simulated based on material's P-S-N curve. The simulation process considers the parameter distributions of stress concentration coefficients, dimension coefficients and surface quality treatment coefficients, and settles the puzzle that traditional test methods cannot acquire the gear's fatigue life of all reliability levels. This method can provide the distribution function and the interval of fatigue reliability life of gear's danger region, and has a guide meaning for the gear maintenance periods determination and reliability evaluation.展开更多
In this paper, the transportation mode of tube during the immersed tunnel engineering in Yangtze River incorporated, mathematical models of the combination of the tube and four barges are established when it is towed ...In this paper, the transportation mode of tube during the immersed tunnel engineering in Yangtze River incorporated, mathematical models of the combination of the tube and four barges are established when it is towed by a tugboat through an elastic rope and pushed by two pushers. Based on evaluating the hydrodynamic derivatives by regressive formula, the simulations and analysis of the whole maneuvering motion course are accomplished. They include sway and yaw motion simulation of the combination and prediction of maneuvering motion such as turning circles of different rudder angle under the condition of being pushed by two pushers. The coincidence of the prediction with the results of model test is good.展开更多
Based on the numerical simulation of solidification of castings, a thermal stress formula and a thermal crack initiation criterion are established, which suggest that the cracks initiate at the two-thirds thickness of...Based on the numerical simulation of solidification of castings, a thermal stress formula and a thermal crack initiation criterion are established, which suggest that the cracks initiate at the two-thirds thickness of solidified layer from outside of castings. Cast steel wheels whose diameters are 800mm are employed to testify the positions of cracks through thermal ela- stic-plastic analyses and low magnifying structure observations conventionally. The results show that the numerical prediction of cracks coincides with the measured result, and the cracks do not necessarily follow where the defects such as shrinkage holes and porosities occur. It is also found that surface temperature control is an effective factor to avoid the crack formation.展开更多
With the combination of a new theoretical formula, physical simulation experiments, the technology of artificial neural network and database, an intelligent system for the prediction of sheet metal drawing capability ...With the combination of a new theoretical formula, physical simulation experiments, the technology of artificial neural network and database, an intelligent system for the prediction of sheet metal drawing capability is constructed for the first time. A modified criterion for sheet metal drawing capability is proposed in this paper, namely, the Technological Limiting Drawing Ratio, TLDR = f(R, n, s, t, F, μ,r_d,r_p…). Based on the studies of other scholars, a new formula is derived to predict the TLDR in this paper. Then a series of orthogonal physical simulation experiments are designed to investigate the effect of technological parameters on the TLDR, and the results are analyzed in the paper. Then the predicting system is constructed with the combination of the theoretical formula, orthogonal experiments, the technology of artifocial neural network and database. The predicted results show good agreements with experimental data, so it can be used to avoid the blindness in the selection of sheet metal before stamping. The system operates under the Windows operating system, and it supports the mechanism of Client/Server as well as Intranet, so the system has high engineering value.展开更多
The dynamic process of the 2008 Wenehuan earthquake is simulated by finite-element method （ FEM）, and the results suggest that we may be able to estimate the occurrence time, location, and magnitude of similar earth...The dynamic process of the 2008 Wenehuan earthquake is simulated by finite-element method （ FEM）, and the results suggest that we may be able to estimate the occurrence time, location, and magnitude of similar earthquakes in the future. Thus a numerical earthquake prediction （NEP） program is proposed; the reliability of it is dependent on its gradual refinement and the parameters used in the models.展开更多
基金supported by Biological Breeding-National Science and Technology Major Project(2023ZD0407501)National Natural Science Foundation of China(31861143003)Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.
文摘Computer simulation permits answering theoretical and applied questions in animal and plant breeding.Blib is a novel multi-module simulation platform,which is able to handle more complicated genetic effects and models than most existing tools.In this study,we describe one major and unified application module of Blib,i.e.,ISB(abbreviated from in silico breeding),for simulating the three categories of breeding programs for developing clonal,pure-line and hybrid cultivars in plants.Genetic models on environments and breeding-targeted traits,one or several parental populations,and a number of breeding methods are key elements to run simulation experiments in ISB,which are arranged in three external input files by given formats.Applications of ISB are illustrated by three case studies,representing the three categories of plant breeding programs.Under the condition that 5000 F1 progenies were generated and tested from 50 heterozygous parents,Case study I showed that 50 crosses,each of 100 progenies,made the best balance between genetic achievement and field cost.In Case study II,one optimum breeding method was identified by which the pure lines with high yield and medium maturity could be developed.Case study III investigated the genetic consequence in hybrid breeding from five testers.One tester was identified for the simultaneous improvement in F1 hybrids and inbred lines.In summary,ISB identified a balanced crossing scheme,an optimum pure-line selection method,and an optimized tester in three case studies which are relevant to plant breeding.We believe the prediction by simulation would be highly required in front of the next generation of breeding to be driven by informatics and intelligence.
基金supported by the National Major Scientific Instruments and Equipment Development Project Funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(81827803)the Jiangsu Province Key Research and Development Program(Social Development)Project(BE2020705).
文摘Purpose:The major limitation of tumor microwave ablation(MWA)operation is the lack of predictability of the ablation zone before surgery.Operators rely on their individual experience to select a treatment plan,which is prone to either inadequate or excessive ablation.This paper aims to establish an ablation prediction model that guides MWA tumor surgical planning.Methods:An MWA process was first simulated by incorporating electromagnetic radiation equations,thermal equations,and optimized biological tissue parameters(dynamic dielectric and thermophysical parameters).The temperature distributions(the short/long diameters,and the total volume of the ablation zone)were then generated and verified by 60 cases ex vivo porcine liver experiments.Subsequently,a series of data were obtained from the simulated temperature distributions and to further fit the novel ablation coagulated area prediction model(ACAPM),thus rendering the ablation-dose table for the guiding surgical plan.The MWA clinical patient data and clinical devices suggested data were used to validate the accuracy and practicability of the established predicted model.Results:The 60 cases ex vivo porcine liver experiments demonstrated the accuracy of the simulated temperature distributions.Compared to traditional simulation methods,our approach reduces the long-diameter error of the ablation zone from 1.1 cm to 0.29 cm,achieving a 74%reduction in error.Further,the clinical data including the patients'operation results and devices provided values were consistent well with our predicated data,indicating the great potential of ACAPM to assist preoperative planning.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52274026)the National Key Research and Development Program(No.2022YFC2806504)the CNOOC Research Project(No.KJGG-2022-17-04 and NO.KJGG-2022-17-05).
文摘Effective isolation between the cement sheath and the sandstone is crucial for the development and production of oil and gas wells in sandstone formations.In this study,a cement-sandstone composite(CSC)was prepared,and based onμ-CT three-dimensional reconstruction imaging and finite element analysis(FEA)techniques,the stress distribution and potential failure mechanism at the cement-sandstone bonding interface under axial loading were analyzed.The key findings are as follows:(1)stress concentrations are highly likely to form at the gap between the cement and sandstone interface and around interfacial voids,with Von Mises stress reaching critical levels of 18.0-20.0 MPa at these locations,significantly exceeding the stress magnitudes in well-bonded regions;(2)the phenomenon of local stress concentration driven by interfacial defects can be identified as the main basis for predicting damage location in interfacial debonding and continuous shear under axial load;(3)ensuring tight cementation at the cement-sandstone interface and minimizing interfacial voids are paramount for preventing stress-induced failure;(4)the critical Von Mises stress value of 20 MPa at the interface defect can be used as a benchmark for material selection and designed to ensure long-term integrity in oil and gas well applications subjected to similar axial loads.These findings contribute to a more accurate understanding of the failure mechanism of the cement-sandstone interface and to the precise design of material properties,thereby ensuring the long-term integrity of oil and gas well applications subjected to similar axial loads.
基金The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),No.CUG2018123。
文摘Building the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)is one of China’s three national development policies in the new era.The ecological environment of the Yangtze River Economic Belt must be protected not only for regional economic development but also for regional ecological security and ecological progress in this region.This paper takes the ecological space of the Yangtze River Economic Belt as the research object,based on land use data in 2010 and 2015,and uses the FLUS model to simulate and predict the ecological space of the research area in 2035.The variation of the research area’s ecological space area and its four sub-zones has remarkable stability under diverse situations.Both the production space priority scenarios(S1)and living space priority scenarios(S2)saw a fall in ecological space area,with the former experiencing the highest reduction(a total reduction of 25,212 km^(2)).Under the ecological space priority scenarios(S3)and comprehensive space optimization scenario(S4),the ecological space area increased,and the ecological space area expanded even more under the former scenario(a total growth of 23,648 km^(2)).In Yunnan-Guizhou,the ecological space is relatively stable,with minimal signs of change.In Sichuan-Chongqing,the Sichuan Basin,Zoige Grassland,and Longmen Mountains were significant regions of area changes in ecological space.In the middle reaches of the Yangtze River,the ecological space changes mainly occur in the Wuyi Mountains,Mufu Mountains,and Dabie Mountains,as well as the surrounding waters of Dongting Lake.The Yangtze River Delta’s changes were mainly observed in the eastern Dabie Mountains and Jianghuai Hills.
基金financially supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2023YFB3812601)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51925401)the Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by CAST, China (No. 2022QNRC001)。
文摘Machine learning-assisted methods for rapid and accurate prediction of temperature field,mushy zone,and grain size were proposed for the heating−cooling combined mold(HCCM)horizontal continuous casting of C70250 alloy plates.First,finite element simulations of casting processes were carried out with various parameters to build a dataset.Subsequently,different machine learning algorithms were employed to achieve high precision in predicting temperature fields,mushy zone locations,mushy zone inclination angle,and billet grain size.Finally,the process parameters were quickly optimized using a strategy consisting of random generation,prediction,and screening,allowing the mushy zone to be controlled to the desired target.The optimized parameters are 1234℃for heating mold temperature,47 mm/min for casting speed,and 10 L/min for cooling water flow rate.The optimized mushy zone is located in the middle of the second heat insulation section and has an inclination angle of roughly 7°.
文摘A nested regional climate model has been experimentally used in the seasonal prediction at the China National Climate Center （NCC） since 2001. The NCC/IAP （Institute of Atmospheric Physics） T63 coupled GCM （CGCM） provides the boundary and initial conditions for driving the regional climate model （RegCM_NCC）. The latter has a 60-km horizontal resolution and improved physical parameterization schemes including the mass flux cumulus parameterization scheme, the turbulent kinetic energy closure scheme （TKE） and an improved land process model （LPM）. The large-scale terrain features such as the Tibetan Plateau are included in the larger domain to produce the topographic forcing on the rain-producing systems. A sensitivity study of the East Asian climate with regard to the above physical processes has been presented in the first part of the present paper. This is the second part, as a continuation of Part Ⅰ. In order to verify the performance of the nested regional climate model, a ten-year simulation driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets has been made to explore the performance of the East Asian climate simulation and to identify the model＇s systematic errors. At the same time, comparative simulation experiments for 5 years between the RegCM2 and RegCM_NCC have been done to further understand their differences in simulation performance. Also, a ten-year hindcast （1991-2000） for summer （June-August）, the rainy season in China, has been undertaken. The preliminary results have shown that the RegCM_NCC is capable of predicting the major seasonal rain belts. The best predicted regions with high anomaly correlation coefficient （ACC） are located in the eastern part of West China, in Northeast China and in North China, where the CGCM has maximum prediction skill as well. This fact may reflect the importance of the largescale forcing. One significant improvement of the prediction derived from RegCM_NCC is the increase of ACC in the Yangtze River valley where the CGCM has a very low, even a negative, ACC. The reason behind this improvement is likely to be related to the more realistic representation of the large-scale terrain features of the Tibetan Plateau. Presumably, many rain-producing systems may be generated over or near the Tibetan Plateau and may then move eastward along the Yangtze River basin steered by upper-level westerly airflow, thus leading to enhancement of rainfalls in the mid and lower basins of the Yangtze River. The real-time experimental predictions for summer in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004 by using this nested RegCM-NCC were made. The results are basically reasonable compared with the observations.
基金This project is supported by Provincial Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu,China(No.BK2004406)Provincial Innovation Foundation for Graduate Students of Jiangsu,China(No.1223000053)
文摘A three-dimensional turbulent flow through an entire centrifugal pump is simulated using k-εturbulence model modified by rotation and curvature,SIMPLEC method and body-fitted coordinate.The velocity and pressure fields are obtained for the pump under various working conditions,which is used to predict the head and hydraulic efficiency of the pump,and the results correspond well with the measured values.The calculation results indicate that the pressure is higher on the pressure side than that on the suction side of the blade;The relative velocity on the suction side gradually decreases from the impeller inlet to the outlet,while increases on the pressure side,it finally results in the lower relative velocity on the suction side and the higher one on the pressure side at the impeller outlet;The impeller flow field is asymmetric,i.e.the velocity and pressure fields arc totally different among all channels in the impeller;In the volute,the static pressure gradually increases with the flow route,and a large pressure gratitude occurs in the tongue;Secondary flow exists in the rear part of the spiral.
基金supported by the National Key Basic Research Program of China(2014CB138105)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(31371623)
文摘In wheat breeding, it is a difficult task to select the most suitable parents for making crosses aimed at the improvement of both grain yield and grain quality. By quantitative genetics theory,the best cross should have high progeny mean and large genetic variance, and ideally yield and quality should be less negatively or positively correlated. Usefulness is built on population mean and genetic variance, which can be used to select the best crosses or populations to achieve the breeding objective. In this study, we first compared five models(RR-BLUP, Bayes A, Bayes B, Bayes ridge regression, and Bayes LASSO) for genomic selection(GS) with respect to prediction of usefulness of a biparental cross and two criteria for parental selection, using simulation. The two parental selection criteria were usefulness and midparent genomic estimated breeding value(GEBV). Marginal differences were observed among GS models. Parental selection with usefulness resulted in higher genetic gain than midparent GEBV. In a population of 57 wheat fixed lines genotyped with 7588 selected markers, usefulness of each biparental cross was calculated to evaluate the cross performance, a key target of breeding programs aimed at developing pure lines. It was observed that progeny mean was a major determinant of usefulness, but the usefulness ratings of quality traits were more influenced by their genetic variances in the progeny population. Near-zero or positive correlations between yield and major quality traits were found in some crosses, although they were negatively correlated in the population of parents. A selection index incorporating yield, extensibility, and maximum resistance was formed as a new trait and its usefulness for selecting the crosses with the best potential to improve yield and quality simultaneously was calculated. It was shown that applying the selection index improved both yield and quality while retaining more genetic variance in the selected progenies than the individual trait selection. It was concluded that combining genomic selection with simulation allows the prediction of cross performance in simulated progenies and thereby identifies candidate parents before crosses are made in the field for pure-line breeding programs.
文摘The aim of the research was to create a prediction model for winter rapeseed yield.The constructed model enabled to perform simulation on 30 June,in the current year,immediately before harvesting.An artificial neural network with multilayer perceptron(MLP) topology was used to build the predictive model.The model was created on the basis of meteorological data(air temperature and atmospheric precipitation) and mineral fertilization data.The data were collected in the period 2008–2017 from 291 productive fields located in Poland,in the southern part of the Opole region.The assessment of the forecast quality created on the basis of the neural model has been verified by defining forecast errors using relative approximation error(RAE),root mean square error(RMS),mean absolute error(MAE),and mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) metrics.An important feature of the created predictive model is the ability to forecast the current agrotechnical year based on current weather and fertilizing data.The lowest value of the MAPE error was obtained for a neural network model based on the MLP network of 21:21-13-6-1:1 structure,which was 9.43%.The performed sensitivity analysis of the network examined the factors that have the greatest impact on the yield of winter rape.The highest rank 1 was obtained by an independent variable with the average air temperature from 1 January to 15 April of 2017(designation by the T1-4_CY model).
基金supported by the Open Fund (PLN 201718) of State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and ExploitationSouthwest Petroleum University and the Open Fund (SEC-2018-04) of Collaborative Innovation Center of Shale Gas Resources and EnvironmentSouthwest Petroleum University and the National Science and Technology Major Project of China (2017ZX05036003-003)
文摘Fracture prediction is a technical issue in the field of petroleum exploration and production worldwide.Although there are many approaches to predict the distribution of cracks underground,these approaches have some limitations.To resolve these issues,we ascertained the relation between numerical simulations of tectonic stress and the predicted distribution of fractures from the perspective of geologic genesis,based on the characteristics of the shale reservoir in the Longmaxi Formation in Dingshan;the features of fracture development in this reservoir were considered.3 D finite element method(FEM)was applied in combination with rock mechanical parameters derived from the acoustic emissions.The paleotectonic stress field of the crack formation period was simulated for the Longmaxi Formation in the Dingshan area.The splitting factor in the study area was calculated based on the rock breaking criterion.The coefficient of fracture development was selected as the quantitative prediction classification criteria for the cracks.The results show that a higher coefficient of fracture development indicates a greater degree of fracture development.On the basis of the fracture development coefficient classification,a favorable area was identified for the development of fracture prediction in the study area.The prediction results indicate that the south of the Dingshan area and the DY3 well of the central region are favorable zones for fracture development.
文摘The evolution of microstructure seriously influences the forming processes and the quality of forgings in metal hot forming processes, it is therefore desirable to gain information on the microstructure evolution of a process by means of computer simulation, not by conventional trial and error method that is time consuming, expensive and does not always lead to optimum results. Models for microstructural simulation and prediction were set up according to the evolution of microstructure during hot forming and cooling processes. The expanding extrusion complex hot forming and cooling processes, as an example, were simulated.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11832006).
文摘A deep understanding of explosive sensitivities and their factors is important for safe and reliable applications.However,quantitative prediction of the sensitivities is difficult.Here,reactive molecular dynamics simulation models for high-speed piston impacts on explosive supercells were established.Simulations were also performed to investigate shock-induced reactions of various high-energy explosives.The fraction of reacted explosive molecules in an initial supercell changed linearly with the propagation distance of the shock-wave front.The corresponding slope could be used as a reaction rate for a specific shock-loading velocity.Reaction rates that varied with the shock-loading pressure exhibited two-stage linearities with different slopes.The two inflection points corresponded to the initial and accelerated reactions,which respectively correlated to the thresholds of shock-induced ignition and detonation.Therefore,the ignition and detonation critical pressures could be determined.The sensitivity could then be a quantitative prediction of the critical pressure.The accuracies of the quantitative shock sensitivity predictions were verified by comparing the impact and shock sensitivities of common explosives and the characteristics of anisotropic shock-induced reactions.Molecular dynamics simulations quantitatively predict and rank shock sensitivities by using only crystal structures of the explosives.Overall,this method will enable the design and safe use of explosives.
基金Supported by Natural Science Program of Shaanxi Province Education Department (05JK261)
文摘By solving steady model of air flow diffusion and chemical reaction in loose coal, distribution of oxygen concentration and flow velocity magnitude were obtained. Compared the simulating results with critic value as well as duration of spontaneous combustion from large-scale spontaneous combustion experiment, 'three zones' of spontaneous combustion were partitioned and mining conditions to avoid spontaneous combustion were obtained. The above method was employed to partition 'three zones' in gob of fully mechanized top-coal caving long wall face and got fairly good result. Calculation of the above method is much smaller than simulating the whole process of coal spontaneous combustion, but the prediction precision can satisfy the demand of predicting and extinguishing spontaneous combustion in mining.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41971233。
文摘Urban construction land has relatively high human activity and high carbon emissions.Research on urban construction land prediction under carbon peak and neutrality goals(hereafter“dual carbon”goals)is important for territorial spatial planning.This study analyzed quantitative relationships between carbon emissions and urban construction land,and then modified the construction land demand prediction model.Thereafter,an integrated model for urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under“dual carbon”goals was developed,where urban construction land suitability was modified based on carbon source and sink capacity of different land-use types.Using Guangzhou as a case study,the integrated model was validated and applied to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of its urban construction land during 2030–2060 under baseline development and“dual carbon”goals scenarios.The simulation results showed that Guangzhou’s urban construction land expanded rapidly until 2030,with the spatial pattern not showing an intensive development trend.Guangzhou’s urban construction land expansion slowed during 2030–2060,with an average annual growth rate of 0.2%,and a centralized spatial pattern trend.Under the“dual carbon”goal scenario,Guangzhou’s urban construction land evolved into a polycentric development pattern in 2030.Compared with the baseline development scenario,urban construction land expansion in Guangzhou during 2030–2060 is slower,with an average annual growth rate of only 0.1%,and the polycentric development pattern of urban construction land was more prominent.Furthermore,land maintenance and growth,that is,a carbon sink,is more obvious under the“dual carbon”goals scenario,with the forest land area nearly 10.6%higher than that under the baseline development scenario.The study of urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under“dual carbon”goals provides a scientific decision-making support tool for territorial spatial planning,aiding in quantifying territorial spatial planning.
基金generously supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51459003)the Project of Karst Groundwater Resources Exploration and Assessment in Beijing(BJYRS-ZT-01)
文摘As the rapid growth of population and social economy, the situation of water resources shortage in Beijing city becomes more and more serious. Karst groundwater in Beijing has great potential for development. The reasonable exploitation of karst groundwater can enhance the water-supply stability of Beijing city. Firstly, the distribution of springs has been investigated in Fangshan, Beijing, and the characteristics of these springs have also been analyzed. Secondly, the hydrogeological conceptual model has been built, based on this, the groundwater flow numerical simulation model was established, and the parameter identification and validation of the model were performed under groundwater level and spring discharge. The results shows that the simulated values of groundwater level and spring discharge are very close to measured values, and the model can be used for groundwater resources evaluation and spring discharge prediction. Finally, a reasonable exploitation design has been developed with three exploitation scenarios considering the spring discharge protection; meanwhile, the quantity of groundwater resources was evaluated in the karst aquifer. The simulation results indicate that different exploitation yields have a significant impact on spring discharge; and the effective measures should be taken to protect the spring discharge.
文摘Aiming to the puzzle that the inner load of nonlinear synthesis transmission system is difficult to obtain,a new kind of virtual prototype establishment and simulation method is put forward. The influence on nonlinear vibration with flexible rotor, bearing backlash is analyzed based on a virtual prototype. To validate the virtual prototype of nonlinear gear transmission system, the corresponding test platform is established. The consistency between simulation results and test results proves that the simulation results of the virtual prototype can be used to calculate the fatigue reliability life of key components. A new kind of fatigue reliability life prediction method of gear system considering multi-random parameter distribution is put forward based on the fativipatistic theory. Considering the periodicity of gear meshing, linear interpolation method is adopted to obtain the stress-time course of random load spectrum based on the gear's complicated torque provided by virtual prototype.The gear's P-Sa-Sm-N curved cluster can be simulated based on material's P-S-N curve. The simulation process considers the parameter distributions of stress concentration coefficients, dimension coefficients and surface quality treatment coefficients, and settles the puzzle that traditional test methods cannot acquire the gear's fatigue life of all reliability levels. This method can provide the distribution function and the interval of fatigue reliability life of gear's danger region, and has a guide meaning for the gear maintenance periods determination and reliability evaluation.
文摘In this paper, the transportation mode of tube during the immersed tunnel engineering in Yangtze River incorporated, mathematical models of the combination of the tube and four barges are established when it is towed by a tugboat through an elastic rope and pushed by two pushers. Based on evaluating the hydrodynamic derivatives by regressive formula, the simulations and analysis of the whole maneuvering motion course are accomplished. They include sway and yaw motion simulation of the combination and prediction of maneuvering motion such as turning circles of different rudder angle under the condition of being pushed by two pushers. The coincidence of the prediction with the results of model test is good.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.59995442)Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China(No.2000014117).
文摘Based on the numerical simulation of solidification of castings, a thermal stress formula and a thermal crack initiation criterion are established, which suggest that the cracks initiate at the two-thirds thickness of solidified layer from outside of castings. Cast steel wheels whose diameters are 800mm are employed to testify the positions of cracks through thermal ela- stic-plastic analyses and low magnifying structure observations conventionally. The results show that the numerical prediction of cracks coincides with the measured result, and the cracks do not necessarily follow where the defects such as shrinkage holes and porosities occur. It is also found that surface temperature control is an effective factor to avoid the crack formation.
文摘With the combination of a new theoretical formula, physical simulation experiments, the technology of artificial neural network and database, an intelligent system for the prediction of sheet metal drawing capability is constructed for the first time. A modified criterion for sheet metal drawing capability is proposed in this paper, namely, the Technological Limiting Drawing Ratio, TLDR = f(R, n, s, t, F, μ,r_d,r_p…). Based on the studies of other scholars, a new formula is derived to predict the TLDR in this paper. Then a series of orthogonal physical simulation experiments are designed to investigate the effect of technological parameters on the TLDR, and the results are analyzed in the paper. Then the predicting system is constructed with the combination of the theoretical formula, orthogonal experiments, the technology of artifocial neural network and database. The predicted results show good agreements with experimental data, so it can be used to avoid the blindness in the selection of sheet metal before stamping. The system operates under the Windows operating system, and it supports the mechanism of Client/Server as well as Intranet, so the system has high engineering value.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation ofChina(40974020,40074024)National 973 Project of China2008(B425704)State Key Laboratory of Earthguake Dynamics Project(LED2008B02)
文摘The dynamic process of the 2008 Wenehuan earthquake is simulated by finite-element method （ FEM）, and the results suggest that we may be able to estimate the occurrence time, location, and magnitude of similar earthquakes in the future. Thus a numerical earthquake prediction （NEP） program is proposed; the reliability of it is dependent on its gradual refinement and the parameters used in the models.
