Developing sensorless techniques for estimating battery expansion is essential for effective mechanical state monitoring,improving the accuracy of digital twin simulation and abnormality detection.Therefore,this paper...Developing sensorless techniques for estimating battery expansion is essential for effective mechanical state monitoring,improving the accuracy of digital twin simulation and abnormality detection.Therefore,this paper presents a data-driven approach to expansion estimation using electromechanical coupled models with machine learning.The proposed method integrates reduced-order impedance models with data-driven mechanical models,coupling the electrochemical and mechanical states through the state of charge(SOC)and mechanical pressure within a state estimation framework.The coupling relationship was established through experimental insights into pressure-related impedance parameters and the nonlinear mechanical behavior with SOC and pressure.The data-driven model was interpreted by introducing a novel swelling coefficient defined by component stiffnesses to capture the nonlinear mechanical behavior across various mechanical constraints.Sensitivity analysis of the impedance model shows that updating model parameters with pressure can reduce the mean absolute error of simulated voltage by 20 mV and SOC estimation error by 2%.The results demonstrate the model's estimation capabilities,achieving a root mean square error of less than 1 kPa when the maximum expansion force is from 30 kPa to 120 kPa,outperforming calibrated stiffness models and other machine learning techniques.The model's robustness and generalizability are further supported by its effective handling of SOC estimation and pressure measurement errors.This work highlights the importance of the proposed framework in enhancing state estimation and fault diagnosis for lithium-ion batteries.展开更多
Timely and accurate forecasting of storm surges can effectively prevent typhoon storm surges from causing large economic losses and casualties in coastal areas.At present,numerical model forecasting consumes too many ...Timely and accurate forecasting of storm surges can effectively prevent typhoon storm surges from causing large economic losses and casualties in coastal areas.At present,numerical model forecasting consumes too many resources and takes too long to compute,while neural network forecasting lacks regional data to train regional forecasting models.In this study,we used the DUAL wind model to build typhoon wind fields,and constructed a typhoon database of 75 processes in the northern South China Sea using the coupled Advanced Circulation-Simulating Waves Nearshore(ADCIRC-SWAN)model.Then,a neural network with a Res-U-Net structure was trained using the typhoon database to forecast the typhoon processes in the validation dataset,and an excellent storm surge forecasting effect was achieved in the Pearl River Estuary region.The storm surge forecasting effect of stronger typhoons was improved by adding a branch structure and transfer learning.展开更多
The Electro–Hydrostatic Actuator(EHA)is applied to drive the control surface in flightcontrol system of more electric aircraft.In EHA,the Oil-Immersed Motor Pump(OMP)serves asthe core as a power assembly.However,the ...The Electro–Hydrostatic Actuator(EHA)is applied to drive the control surface in flightcontrol system of more electric aircraft.In EHA,the Oil-Immersed Motor Pump(OMP)serves asthe core as a power assembly.However,the compact integration of the OMP presents challenges inefficiently dissipating internal heat,leading to a performance degradation of the EHA due to ele-vated temperatures.Therefore,accurately modeling and predicting the internal thermal dynamicsof the OMP hold considerable significance for monitoring the operational condition of the EHA.In view of this,a modeling method considering cumulative thermal coupling was hereby proposed.Based on the proposed method,the thermal models of the motor and the pump were established,taking into account heat accumulation and transfer.Taking the leakage oil as the heat couplingpoint between the motor and the pump,the dynamic thermal coupling model of the OMP wasdeveloped,with the thermal characteristics of the oil considered.Additionally,the comparativeexperiments were conducted to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed model.The experimentalresults demonstrate that the proposed dynamic thermal coupling model accurately captured thethermal behavior of OMP,outperforming the static thermal parameter model.Overall,thisadvancement is crucial for effectively monitoring the health of EHA and ensuring flight safety.展开更多
A coupled thermal-hydro-mechanical cohesive phase-field model for hydraulic fracturing in deep coal seams is presented.Heat exchange between the cold fluid and the hot rock is considered,and the thermal contribution t...A coupled thermal-hydro-mechanical cohesive phase-field model for hydraulic fracturing in deep coal seams is presented.Heat exchange between the cold fluid and the hot rock is considered,and the thermal contribution terms between the cold fluid and the hot rock are derived.Heat transfer obeys Fourier's law,and porosity is used to relate the thermodynamic parameters of the fracture and matrix domains.The net pressure difference between the fracture and the matrix is neglected,and thus the fluid flow is modeled by the unified fluid-governing equations.The evolution equations of porosity and Biot's coefficient during hydraulic fracturing are derived from their definitions.The effect of coal cleats is considered and modeled by Voronoi polygons,and this approach is shown to have high accuracy.The accuracy of the proposed model is verified by two sets of fracturing experiments in multilayer coal seams.Subsequently,the differences in fracture morphology,fluid pressure response,and fluid pressure distribution between direct fracturing of coal seams and indirect fracturing of shale interlayers are explored,and the effects of the cluster number and cluster spacing on fracture morphology for multi-cluster fracturing are also examined.The numerical results show that the proposed model is expected to be a powerful tool for the fracturing design and optimization of deep coalbed methane.展开更多
Nonuniform track support and differential settlements are commonly observed in bridge approaches where the ballast layer can develop gaps at crosstie-ballast interfaces often referred to as a hanging crosstie conditio...Nonuniform track support and differential settlements are commonly observed in bridge approaches where the ballast layer can develop gaps at crosstie-ballast interfaces often referred to as a hanging crosstie condition.Hanging crossties usually yield unfavorable dynamic effects such as higher wheel loads,which negatively impact the serviceability and safety of railway operations.Hence,a better understanding of the mechanisms that cause hanging crossties and their effects on the ballast layer load-deformation characteristics is necessary.Since the ballast layer is a particulate medium,the discrete element method(DEM),which simulates ballast particle interactions individually,is ideal to explore the interparticle contact forces and ballast movements under dynamic wheel loading.Accurate representations of the dynamic loads from the train and track superstructure are needed for high-fidelity DEM modeling.This paper introduces an integrated modeling approach,which couples a single-crosstie DEM ballast model with a train–track–bridge(TTB)model using a proportional–integral–derivative control loop.The TTB–DEM model was validated with field measurements,and the coupled model calculates similar crosstie displacements as the TTB model.The TTB–DEM provided new insights into the ballast particle-scale behavior,which the TTB model alone cannot explore.The TTB–DEM coupling approach identified detrimental effects of hanging crossties on adjacent crossties,which were found to experience drastic vibrations and large ballast contact force concentrations.展开更多
Numerical models are crucial for quantifying the ocean-atmosphere interactions associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)phenomenon in the tropical Pacific.Current coupled models often exhibit signifi...Numerical models are crucial for quantifying the ocean-atmosphere interactions associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)phenomenon in the tropical Pacific.Current coupled models often exhibit significant biases and inter-model differences in simulating ENSO,underscoring the need for alternative modeling approaches.The Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS)is a sophisticated ocean model widely used for regional studies and has been coupled with various atmospheric models.However,its application in simulating ENSO processes on a basin scale in the tropical Pacific has not been explored.For the first time,this study presents the development of a basin-scale hybrid coupled model(HCM)for the tropical Pacific,integrating ROMS with a statistical atmospheric model that captures the interannual relationships between sea surface temperature(SST)and wind stress anomalies.The HCM is evaluated for its capability to simulate the annual mean,seasonal,and interannual variations of the oceanic state in the tropical Pacific.Results demonstrate that the model effectively reproduces the ENSO cycle,with a dominant oscillation period of approximately two years.The ROMS-based HCM developed here offers an efficient and robust tool for investigating climate variability in the tropical Pacific.展开更多
Within the prefrontal-cingulate cortex,abnormalities in coupling between neuronal networks can disturb the emotion-cognition interactions,contributing to the development of mental disorders such as depression.Despite ...Within the prefrontal-cingulate cortex,abnormalities in coupling between neuronal networks can disturb the emotion-cognition interactions,contributing to the development of mental disorders such as depression.Despite this understanding,the neural circuit mechanisms underlying this phenomenon remain elusive.In this study,we present a biophysical computational model encompassing three crucial regions,including the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex,subgenual anterior cingulate cortex,and ventromedial prefrontal cortex.The objective is to investigate the role of coupling relationships within the prefrontal-cingulate cortex networks in balancing emotions and cognitive processes.The numerical results confirm that coupled weights play a crucial role in the balance of emotional cognitive networks.Furthermore,our model predicts the pathogenic mechanism of depression resulting from abnormalities in the subgenual cortex,and network functionality was restored through intervention in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex.This study utilizes computational modeling techniques to provide an insight explanation for the diagnosis and treatment of depression.展开更多
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is a naturally recurring interannual climate fluctuation that affects the global climate system.The advent of deep learning-based approaches has led to transformative changes...The El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is a naturally recurring interannual climate fluctuation that affects the global climate system.The advent of deep learning-based approaches has led to transformative changes in ENSO forecasts,resulting in significant progress.Most deep learning-based ENSO prediction models which primarily rely solely on reanalysis data may lead to challenges in intensity underestimation in long-term forecasts,reducing the forecasting skills.To this end,we propose a deep residual-coupled model prediction(Res-CMP)model,which integrates historical reanalysis data and coupled model forecast data for multiyear ENSO prediction.The Res-CMP model is designed as a lightweight model that leverages only short-term reanalysis data and nudging assimilation prediction results of the Community Earth System Model(CESM)for effective prediction of the Niño 3.4 index.We also developed a transfer learning strategy for this model to overcome the limitations of inadequate forecast data.After determining the optimal configuration,which included selecting a suitable transfer learning rate during training,along with input variables and CESM forecast lengths,Res-CMP demonstrated a high correlation ability for 19-month lead time predictions(correlation coefficients exceeding 0.5).The Res-CMP model also alleviated the spring predictability barrier(SPB).When validated against actual ENSO events,Res-CMP successfully captured the temporal evolution of the Niño 3.4 index during La Niña events(1998/99 and 2020/21)and El Niño events(2009/10 and 2015/16).Our proposed model has the potential to further enhance ENSO prediction performance by using coupled models to assist deep learning methods.展开更多
In Earth system modeling,the land surface is coupled with the atmosphere through surface turbulent fluxes.These fluxes are computed using mean meteorological variables between the surface and a reference height in the...In Earth system modeling,the land surface is coupled with the atmosphere through surface turbulent fluxes.These fluxes are computed using mean meteorological variables between the surface and a reference height in the atmosphere.However,the dependence of flux computation on the reference height,which is usually set as the lowest level in the atmosphere in Earth system models,has not received much attention.Based on high-resolution large-eddy simulation(LES)data under unstable conditions,we find the setting of reference height is not trivial within the framework of current surface layer theory.With a reasonable prescription of aerodynamic roughness length(following the setting in LESs),reference heights near the top of the surface layer tend to provide the best estimate of surface fluxes,especially for the momentum flux.Furthermore,this conclusion for the sensible heat flux is insensitive to the ratio of roughness length for momentum versus heat.These results are robust,whether using the classical or revised surface layer theory.They provide a potential guide for setting the proper reference heights for Earth system modeling and can be further tested in the near future using observational data from land–atmosphere feedback observatories.展开更多
This paper provides a comparative analysis of the performance of a high-resolution regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model in predicting tropical cyclone(TC)gales over the northern South China Sea.The atmosphere and o...This paper provides a comparative analysis of the performance of a high-resolution regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model in predicting tropical cyclone(TC)gales over the northern South China Sea.The atmosphere and ocean components of the coupled system are represented by the China Meteorological Administration’s Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS)and the LASG/IAP Climate system Ocean Model(LICOM),respectively.The Ocean Atmosphere Sea Ice Soil VersionH 3(OASIS3)software has been utilized for the exchange of momentum,heat,and freshwater fluxes between these two components.An assessment of the coupled model’s three-day predictions for five TCs’gales was conducted.Preliminary findings indicate that the predicted TC tracks show less sensitivity to oceanic influences than the predicted TC intensities.Significant improvement in predicting the surface TC gales has been achieved through coupling the ocean model.This improvement is attributed to the impact of the warmer ocean’s effect on TC intensification,counteracting the cooling effect of the cold wake.In summary,coupling has enhanced the model’s predictive capabilities for TC gales.A detailed assessment of the coupled model’s performance in predicting other tropical weather phenomena is forthcoming.展开更多
Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and has experienced rapid changes during in the past few decades,the prediction of which is a significant application for climate models.In this st...Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and has experienced rapid changes during in the past few decades,the prediction of which is a significant application for climate models.In this study,a Localized Error Subspace Transform Kalman Filter is employed in a coupled climate system model(the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model,version f3-L(FGOALS-f3-L))to assimilate sea-ice concentration(SIC)and sea-ice thickness(SIT)data for melting-season ice predictions.The scheme is applied through the following steps:(1)initialization for generating initial ensembles;(2)analysis for assimilating observed data;(3)adoption for dividing ice states into five thickness categories;(4)forecast for evolving the model;(5)resampling for updating model uncertainties.Several experiments were conducted to examine its results and impacts.Compared with the control experiment,the continuous assimilation experiments(CTNs)indicate assimilations improve model SICs and SITs persistently and generate realistic initials.Assimilating SIC+SIT data better corrects overestimated model SITs spatially than when only assimilating SIC data.The continuous assimilation restart experiments indicate the initials from the CTNs correct the overestimated marginal SICs and overall SITs remarkably well,as well as the cold biases in the oceanic and atmospheric models.The initials with SIC+SIT assimilated show more reasonable spatial improvements.Nevertheless,the SICs in the central Arctic undergo abnormal summer reductions,which is probably because overestimated SITs are reduced in the initials but the strong seasonal cycle(summer melting)biases are unchanged.Therefore,since systematic biases are complicated in a coupled system,for FGOALS-f3-L to make better ice predictions,oceanic and atmospheric assimilations are expected required.展开更多
This study presents a fully coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) constitutive model for clay rocks. The model is formulated within the elastic-viscoplasticity framework, which considers nonlinearity and softening aft...This study presents a fully coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) constitutive model for clay rocks. The model is formulated within the elastic-viscoplasticity framework, which considers nonlinearity and softening after peak strength, anisotropy of stiffness and strength, as well as permeability variation due to damage. In addition, the mechanical properties are coupled with thermal phenomena and accumulated plastic strains. The adopted nonlocal and viscoplastic approaches enhance numerical efficiency and provide the possibility to simulate localization phenomena. The model is validated against experimental data from laboratory tests conducted on Callovo-Oxfordian (COx) claystone samples that are initially unsaturated and under suction. The tests include a thermal phase where the COx specimens are subjected to different temperature increases. A good agreement with experimental data is obtained. In addition, parametric analyses are carried out to investigate the influence of the hydraulic boundary conditions (B.C.) and post-failure behavior models on the THM behavior evolution. It is shown that different drainage conditions affect the thermally induced pore pressures that, in turn, influence the onset of softening. The constitutive model presented constitutes a promising approach for simulating the most important features of the THM behavior of clay rocks. It is a tool with a high potential for application to several relevant case studies, such as thermal fracturing analysis of nuclear waste disposal systems.展开更多
To accelerate the practicality of electromagnetic railguns,it is necessary to use a combination of threedimensional numerical simulation and experiments to study the mechanism of bore damage.In this paper,a three-dime...To accelerate the practicality of electromagnetic railguns,it is necessary to use a combination of threedimensional numerical simulation and experiments to study the mechanism of bore damage.In this paper,a three-dimensional numerical model of the augmented railgun with four parallel unconventional rails is introduced to simulate the internal ballistic process and realize the multi-physics field coupling calculation of the rail gun,and a test experiment of a medium-caliber electromagnetic launcher powered by pulse formation network(PFN)is carried out.Various test methods such as spectrometer,fiber grating and high-speed camera are used to test several parameters such as muzzle initial velocity,transient magnetic field strength and stress-strain of rail.Combining the simulation results and experimental data,the damage condition of the contact surface is analyzed.展开更多
To enhance the prediction accuracy of landslides in in Longyan City,China,this study developed a methodology for geologic hazard susceptibility assessment based on a coupled model composed of a Geographic Information ...To enhance the prediction accuracy of landslides in in Longyan City,China,this study developed a methodology for geologic hazard susceptibility assessment based on a coupled model composed of a Geographic Information System(GIS)with integrated spatial data,a frequency ratio(FR)model,and a random forest(RF)model(also referred to as the coupled FR-RF model).The coupled FR-RF model was constructed based on the analysis of nine influential factors,including distance from roads,normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),and slope.The performance of the coupled FR-RF model was assessed using metrics such as Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC)and Precision-Recall(PR)curves,yielding Area Under the Curve(AUC)values of 0.93 and 0.95,which indicate high predictive accuracy and reliability for geological hazard forecasting.Based on the model predictions,five susceptibility levels were determined in the study area,providing crucial spatial information for geologic hazard prevention and control.The contributions of various influential factors to landslide susceptibility were determined using SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)analysis and the Gini index,enhancing the model interpretability and transparency.Additionally,this study discussed the limitations of the coupled FR-RF model and the prospects for its improvement using new technologies.This study provides an innovative method and theoretical support for geologic hazard prediction and management,holding promising prospects for application.展开更多
The global rise in energy demand, particularly in remote and sparsely populated regions, necessitates innovative and cost-effective electrical distribution solutions. Traditional Rural Electrification (RE) methods, li...The global rise in energy demand, particularly in remote and sparsely populated regions, necessitates innovative and cost-effective electrical distribution solutions. Traditional Rural Electrification (RE) methods, like Conventional Rural Electrification (CRE), have proven economically unfeasible in such areas due to high infrastructure costs and low electricity demand. Consequently, Unconventional Rural Electrification (URE) technologies, such as Capacitor Coupled Substations (CCS), are gaining attention as viable alternatives. This study presents the design and simulation of an 80 kW CCS system, which taps power directly from a 132 kV transmission line to supply low-voltage consumers. The critical components of the CCS, the capacitors are calculated, then a MATLAB/Simulink model with the attained results is executed. Mathematical representation and state-space representation for maintaining the desired tapped voltage area also developed. The research further explores the feasibility and operational performance of this CCS configuration, aiming to address the challenges of rural electrification by offering a sustainable and scalable solution. The results show that the desired value of the tapped voltage can be achieved at any level of High Voltage (HV) with the selection of capacitors that are correctly rated. With an adequately designed control strategy, the research also shows that tapped voltage can be attained under both steady-state and dynamic loads. By leveraging CCS technology, the study demonstrates the potential for delivering reliable electricity to underserved areas, highlighting the system’s practicality and effectiveness in overcoming the limitations of conventional distribution methods.展开更多
Fine particulate matter produced during the rapid industrialization over the past decades can cause significant harm to human health.Twin-fluid atomization technology is an effective means of controlling fine particul...Fine particulate matter produced during the rapid industrialization over the past decades can cause significant harm to human health.Twin-fluid atomization technology is an effective means of controlling fine particulate matter pollution.In this paper,the influences of the main parameters on the droplet size,effective atomization range and sound pressure level(SPL)of a twin-fluid nozzle(TFN)are investigated,and in order to improve the atomization performance,a multi-objective synergetic optimization algorithm is presented.A multi-physics coupled acousticmechanics model based on the discrete phase model(DPM),large eddy simulation(LES)model,and Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings(FW-H)model is established,and the numerical simulation results of the multi-physics coupled acoustic-mechanics method are verified via experimental comparison.Based on the analysis of the multi-physics coupled acoustic-mechanics numerical simulation results,the effects of the water flow on the characteristics of the atomization flow distribution were obtained.A multi-physics coupled acoustic-mechanics numerical simulation result was employed to establish an orthogonal test database,and a multi-objective synergetic optimization algorithm was adopted to optimize the key parameters of the TFN.The optimal parameters are as follows:A gas flow of 0.94 m^(3)/h,water flow of 0.0237 m^(3)/h,orifice diameter of the self-excited vibrating cavity(SVC)of 1.19 mm,SVC orifice depth of 0.53 mm,distance between SVC and the outlet of nozzle of 5.11 mm,and a nozzle outlet diameter of 3.15 mm.The droplet particle size in the atomization flow field was significantly reduced,the spray distance improved by 71.56%,and the SPL data at each corresponding measurement point decreased by an average of 38.96%.The conclusions of this study offer a references for future TFN research.展开更多
Rural electrification remains a critical challenge in achieving equitable access to electricity, a cornerstone for poverty alleviation, economic growth, and improved living standards. Capacitor Coupled Substations (CC...Rural electrification remains a critical challenge in achieving equitable access to electricity, a cornerstone for poverty alleviation, economic growth, and improved living standards. Capacitor Coupled Substations (CCS) offer a promising solution for delivering cost-effective electricity to these underserved areas. However, the integration of multiple CCS units along a transmission network introduces complex interactions that can significantly impact voltage, current, and power flow. This study presents a detailed mathematical model to analyze the effects of varying distances and configurations of multiple CCS units on a transmission network, with a focus on voltage stability, power quality, and reactive power fluctuations. Furthermore, the research addresses the phenomenon of ferroresonance, a critical issue in networks with multiple CCS units, by developing and validating suppression strategies to ensure stable operation. Through simulation and practical testing, the study provides insights into optimizing CCS deployment, ultimately contributing to more reliable and efficient rural electrification solutions.展开更多
The problem of flooding in Central Vietnam in general and the lower Ba River in particular is one of the natural disasters that frequently threatens people's lives and socioeconomic development in the region.Espec...The problem of flooding in Central Vietnam in general and the lower Ba River in particular is one of the natural disasters that frequently threatens people's lives and socioeconomic development in the region.Especially,climate change is becoming ever more prominent and hotter,making extreme natural disasters more unusual and unpredictable.In this research,MIKE-FLOOD—a model that connects a 1-dimensional(1-D)MIKE 11 Hydrodynamics(HD)model with a 2-dimensional(2-D)MIKE 21 HD model—was used to set up.The model was calculated for three floods:(1)flood in October 1993,(2)flood in November 2003,and(3)flood in November 2007;these are floods with high frequency and relatively large magnitude.The results show that the 1993 flood rose and receded quickly.The flood peak inundated an area of 22,600 ha,accounting for 52%of the natural area.The flooded areas deeper than 1,2,3,4,and 5m were 16500,11,000,7000,4200,and 2200 ha,respectively.In the center of Tuy Hoa city,the flooded area at the time of maximum water level was almost 100%.展开更多
In this work,we present a parallel implementation of radiation hydrodynamics coupled with particle transport,utilizing software infrastructure JASMIN(J Adaptive Structured Meshes applications INfrastructure)which enca...In this work,we present a parallel implementation of radiation hydrodynamics coupled with particle transport,utilizing software infrastructure JASMIN(J Adaptive Structured Meshes applications INfrastructure)which encapsulates high-performance technology for the numerical simulation of complex applications.Two serial codes,radiation hydrodynamics RH2D and particle transport Sn2D,have been integrated into RHSn2D on JASMIN infrastructure,which can efficiently use thousands of processors to simulate the complex multi-physics phenomena.Moreover,the non-conforming processors strategy has ensured RHSn2D against the serious load imbalance between radiation hydrodynamics and particle transport for large scale parallel simulations.Numerical results show that RHSn2D achieves a parallel efficiency of 17.1%using 90720 cells on 8192 processors compared with 256 processors in the same problem.展开更多
Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover chang...Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.展开更多
基金Fund supported this work for Excellent Youth Scholars of China(Grant No.52222708)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51977007)+1 种基金Part of this work is supported by the research project“SPEED”(03XP0585)at RWTH Aachen Universityfunded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research(BMBF)。
文摘Developing sensorless techniques for estimating battery expansion is essential for effective mechanical state monitoring,improving the accuracy of digital twin simulation and abnormality detection.Therefore,this paper presents a data-driven approach to expansion estimation using electromechanical coupled models with machine learning.The proposed method integrates reduced-order impedance models with data-driven mechanical models,coupling the electrochemical and mechanical states through the state of charge(SOC)and mechanical pressure within a state estimation framework.The coupling relationship was established through experimental insights into pressure-related impedance parameters and the nonlinear mechanical behavior with SOC and pressure.The data-driven model was interpreted by introducing a novel swelling coefficient defined by component stiffnesses to capture the nonlinear mechanical behavior across various mechanical constraints.Sensitivity analysis of the impedance model shows that updating model parameters with pressure can reduce the mean absolute error of simulated voltage by 20 mV and SOC estimation error by 2%.The results demonstrate the model's estimation capabilities,achieving a root mean square error of less than 1 kPa when the maximum expansion force is from 30 kPa to 120 kPa,outperforming calibrated stiffness models and other machine learning techniques.The model's robustness and generalizability are further supported by its effective handling of SOC estimation and pressure measurement errors.This work highlights the importance of the proposed framework in enhancing state estimation and fault diagnosis for lithium-ion batteries.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42076214)Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(Grant No.ZR2024QD057).
文摘Timely and accurate forecasting of storm surges can effectively prevent typhoon storm surges from causing large economic losses and casualties in coastal areas.At present,numerical model forecasting consumes too many resources and takes too long to compute,while neural network forecasting lacks regional data to train regional forecasting models.In this study,we used the DUAL wind model to build typhoon wind fields,and constructed a typhoon database of 75 processes in the northern South China Sea using the coupled Advanced Circulation-Simulating Waves Nearshore(ADCIRC-SWAN)model.Then,a neural network with a Res-U-Net structure was trained using the typhoon database to forecast the typhoon processes in the validation dataset,and an excellent storm surge forecasting effect was achieved in the Pearl River Estuary region.The storm surge forecasting effect of stronger typhoons was improved by adding a branch structure and transfer learning.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2021YFB2011300)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52275044,U2233212)。
文摘The Electro–Hydrostatic Actuator(EHA)is applied to drive the control surface in flightcontrol system of more electric aircraft.In EHA,the Oil-Immersed Motor Pump(OMP)serves asthe core as a power assembly.However,the compact integration of the OMP presents challenges inefficiently dissipating internal heat,leading to a performance degradation of the EHA due to ele-vated temperatures.Therefore,accurately modeling and predicting the internal thermal dynamicsof the OMP hold considerable significance for monitoring the operational condition of the EHA.In view of this,a modeling method considering cumulative thermal coupling was hereby proposed.Based on the proposed method,the thermal models of the motor and the pump were established,taking into account heat accumulation and transfer.Taking the leakage oil as the heat couplingpoint between the motor and the pump,the dynamic thermal coupling model of the OMP wasdeveloped,with the thermal characteristics of the oil considered.Additionally,the comparativeexperiments were conducted to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed model.The experimentalresults demonstrate that the proposed dynamic thermal coupling model accurately captured thethermal behavior of OMP,outperforming the static thermal parameter model.Overall,thisadvancement is crucial for effectively monitoring the health of EHA and ensuring flight safety.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42202314)。
文摘A coupled thermal-hydro-mechanical cohesive phase-field model for hydraulic fracturing in deep coal seams is presented.Heat exchange between the cold fluid and the hot rock is considered,and the thermal contribution terms between the cold fluid and the hot rock are derived.Heat transfer obeys Fourier's law,and porosity is used to relate the thermodynamic parameters of the fracture and matrix domains.The net pressure difference between the fracture and the matrix is neglected,and thus the fluid flow is modeled by the unified fluid-governing equations.The evolution equations of porosity and Biot's coefficient during hydraulic fracturing are derived from their definitions.The effect of coal cleats is considered and modeled by Voronoi polygons,and this approach is shown to have high accuracy.The accuracy of the proposed model is verified by two sets of fracturing experiments in multilayer coal seams.Subsequently,the differences in fracture morphology,fluid pressure response,and fluid pressure distribution between direct fracturing of coal seams and indirect fracturing of shale interlayers are explored,and the effects of the cluster number and cluster spacing on fracture morphology for multi-cluster fracturing are also examined.The numerical results show that the proposed model is expected to be a powerful tool for the fracturing design and optimization of deep coalbed methane.
基金a U.S. Federal Railroad Administration (FRA)BAA project,titled “Mitigation of Differential Movement at Railway Transitions for High-Speed Passenger Rail and Joint Passenger/Freight Corridors”the financial support provided by the China Scholarship Council (CSC),which funded Zhongyi Liu’s and Wenjing Li’s time and research efforts for this study
文摘Nonuniform track support and differential settlements are commonly observed in bridge approaches where the ballast layer can develop gaps at crosstie-ballast interfaces often referred to as a hanging crosstie condition.Hanging crossties usually yield unfavorable dynamic effects such as higher wheel loads,which negatively impact the serviceability and safety of railway operations.Hence,a better understanding of the mechanisms that cause hanging crossties and their effects on the ballast layer load-deformation characteristics is necessary.Since the ballast layer is a particulate medium,the discrete element method(DEM),which simulates ballast particle interactions individually,is ideal to explore the interparticle contact forces and ballast movements under dynamic wheel loading.Accurate representations of the dynamic loads from the train and track superstructure are needed for high-fidelity DEM modeling.This paper introduces an integrated modeling approach,which couples a single-crosstie DEM ballast model with a train–track–bridge(TTB)model using a proportional–integral–derivative control loop.The TTB–DEM model was validated with field measurements,and the coupled model calculates similar crosstie displacements as the TTB model.The TTB–DEM provided new insights into the ballast particle-scale behavior,which the TTB model alone cannot explore.The TTB–DEM coupling approach identified detrimental effects of hanging crossties on adjacent crossties,which were found to experience drastic vibrations and large ballast contact force concentrations.
基金Supported by the Laoshan Laboratory(No.LSKJ 202202404)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XDB 42000000)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(No.42030410)the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST,and the Jiangsu Innovation Research Group(No.JSSCTD 202346)。
文摘Numerical models are crucial for quantifying the ocean-atmosphere interactions associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)phenomenon in the tropical Pacific.Current coupled models often exhibit significant biases and inter-model differences in simulating ENSO,underscoring the need for alternative modeling approaches.The Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS)is a sophisticated ocean model widely used for regional studies and has been coupled with various atmospheric models.However,its application in simulating ENSO processes on a basin scale in the tropical Pacific has not been explored.For the first time,this study presents the development of a basin-scale hybrid coupled model(HCM)for the tropical Pacific,integrating ROMS with a statistical atmospheric model that captures the interannual relationships between sea surface temperature(SST)and wind stress anomalies.The HCM is evaluated for its capability to simulate the annual mean,seasonal,and interannual variations of the oceanic state in the tropical Pacific.Results demonstrate that the model effectively reproduces the ENSO cycle,with a dominant oscillation period of approximately two years.The ROMS-based HCM developed here offers an efficient and robust tool for investigating climate variability in the tropical Pacific.
基金supported by the Major Research Instrument Development Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(82327810)the Foundation of the President of Hebei University(XZJJ202202)the Hebei Province“333 talent project”(A202101058).
文摘Within the prefrontal-cingulate cortex,abnormalities in coupling between neuronal networks can disturb the emotion-cognition interactions,contributing to the development of mental disorders such as depression.Despite this understanding,the neural circuit mechanisms underlying this phenomenon remain elusive.In this study,we present a biophysical computational model encompassing three crucial regions,including the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex,subgenual anterior cingulate cortex,and ventromedial prefrontal cortex.The objective is to investigate the role of coupling relationships within the prefrontal-cingulate cortex networks in balancing emotions and cognitive processes.The numerical results confirm that coupled weights play a crucial role in the balance of emotional cognitive networks.Furthermore,our model predicts the pathogenic mechanism of depression resulting from abnormalities in the subgenual cortex,and network functionality was restored through intervention in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex.This study utilizes computational modeling techniques to provide an insight explanation for the diagnosis and treatment of depression.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract Nos 2024YFF0808900,2023YFF0805300,and 2020YFA0608804the Civilian Space Programme of China under contract No.D040305.
文摘The El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is a naturally recurring interannual climate fluctuation that affects the global climate system.The advent of deep learning-based approaches has led to transformative changes in ENSO forecasts,resulting in significant progress.Most deep learning-based ENSO prediction models which primarily rely solely on reanalysis data may lead to challenges in intensity underestimation in long-term forecasts,reducing the forecasting skills.To this end,we propose a deep residual-coupled model prediction(Res-CMP)model,which integrates historical reanalysis data and coupled model forecast data for multiyear ENSO prediction.The Res-CMP model is designed as a lightweight model that leverages only short-term reanalysis data and nudging assimilation prediction results of the Community Earth System Model(CESM)for effective prediction of the Niño 3.4 index.We also developed a transfer learning strategy for this model to overcome the limitations of inadequate forecast data.After determining the optimal configuration,which included selecting a suitable transfer learning rate during training,along with input variables and CESM forecast lengths,Res-CMP demonstrated a high correlation ability for 19-month lead time predictions(correlation coefficients exceeding 0.5).The Res-CMP model also alleviated the spring predictability barrier(SPB).When validated against actual ENSO events,Res-CMP successfully captured the temporal evolution of the Niño 3.4 index during La Niña events(1998/99 and 2020/21)and El Niño events(2009/10 and 2015/16).Our proposed model has the potential to further enhance ENSO prediction performance by using coupled models to assist deep learning methods.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42088101 and 42375163)the Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(Grant No.2021B0301030007)the specific research fund of The Innovation Platform for Academicians of Hainan Province(Grant No.YSPTZX202143)。
文摘In Earth system modeling,the land surface is coupled with the atmosphere through surface turbulent fluxes.These fluxes are computed using mean meteorological variables between the surface and a reference height in the atmosphere.However,the dependence of flux computation on the reference height,which is usually set as the lowest level in the atmosphere in Earth system models,has not received much attention.Based on high-resolution large-eddy simulation(LES)data under unstable conditions,we find the setting of reference height is not trivial within the framework of current surface layer theory.With a reasonable prescription of aerodynamic roughness length(following the setting in LESs),reference heights near the top of the surface layer tend to provide the best estimate of surface fluxes,especially for the momentum flux.Furthermore,this conclusion for the sensible heat flux is insensitive to the ratio of roughness length for momentum versus heat.These results are robust,whether using the classical or revised surface layer theory.They provide a potential guide for setting the proper reference heights for Earth system modeling and can be further tested in the near future using observational data from land–atmosphere feedback observatories.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China [grant number 2023YFC3008005]the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation [grant numbers 2022A1515011288 and 2024A1515030210]+1 种基金the Key Innovation Team of the China Meteorological Administration [grant number CMA2023ZD08]the Guangdong Provincial Marine Meteorology Science Data Center [grant number 2024B1212070014]。
文摘This paper provides a comparative analysis of the performance of a high-resolution regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model in predicting tropical cyclone(TC)gales over the northern South China Sea.The atmosphere and ocean components of the coupled system are represented by the China Meteorological Administration’s Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS)and the LASG/IAP Climate system Ocean Model(LICOM),respectively.The Ocean Atmosphere Sea Ice Soil VersionH 3(OASIS3)software has been utilized for the exchange of momentum,heat,and freshwater fluxes between these two components.An assessment of the coupled model’s three-day predictions for five TCs’gales was conducted.Preliminary findings indicate that the predicted TC tracks show less sensitivity to oceanic influences than the predicted TC intensities.Significant improvement in predicting the surface TC gales has been achieved through coupling the ocean model.This improvement is attributed to the impact of the warmer ocean’s effect on TC intensification,counteracting the cooling effect of the cold wake.In summary,coupling has enhanced the model’s predictive capabilities for TC gales.A detailed assessment of the coupled model’s performance in predicting other tropical weather phenomena is forthcoming.
基金jointly funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)[grant number 42130608]the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation[grant number 2024M753169]。
文摘Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and has experienced rapid changes during in the past few decades,the prediction of which is a significant application for climate models.In this study,a Localized Error Subspace Transform Kalman Filter is employed in a coupled climate system model(the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model,version f3-L(FGOALS-f3-L))to assimilate sea-ice concentration(SIC)and sea-ice thickness(SIT)data for melting-season ice predictions.The scheme is applied through the following steps:(1)initialization for generating initial ensembles;(2)analysis for assimilating observed data;(3)adoption for dividing ice states into five thickness categories;(4)forecast for evolving the model;(5)resampling for updating model uncertainties.Several experiments were conducted to examine its results and impacts.Compared with the control experiment,the continuous assimilation experiments(CTNs)indicate assimilations improve model SICs and SITs persistently and generate realistic initials.Assimilating SIC+SIT data better corrects overestimated model SITs spatially than when only assimilating SIC data.The continuous assimilation restart experiments indicate the initials from the CTNs correct the overestimated marginal SICs and overall SITs remarkably well,as well as the cold biases in the oceanic and atmospheric models.The initials with SIC+SIT assimilated show more reasonable spatial improvements.Nevertheless,the SICs in the central Arctic undergo abnormal summer reductions,which is probably because overestimated SITs are reduced in the initials but the strong seasonal cycle(summer melting)biases are unchanged.Therefore,since systematic biases are complicated in a coupled system,for FGOALS-f3-L to make better ice predictions,oceanic and atmospheric assimilations are expected required.
基金funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under a grant agreement (Grant No.847593)partially supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No.22120240029).
文摘This study presents a fully coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) constitutive model for clay rocks. The model is formulated within the elastic-viscoplasticity framework, which considers nonlinearity and softening after peak strength, anisotropy of stiffness and strength, as well as permeability variation due to damage. In addition, the mechanical properties are coupled with thermal phenomena and accumulated plastic strains. The adopted nonlocal and viscoplastic approaches enhance numerical efficiency and provide the possibility to simulate localization phenomena. The model is validated against experimental data from laboratory tests conducted on Callovo-Oxfordian (COx) claystone samples that are initially unsaturated and under suction. The tests include a thermal phase where the COx specimens are subjected to different temperature increases. A good agreement with experimental data is obtained. In addition, parametric analyses are carried out to investigate the influence of the hydraulic boundary conditions (B.C.) and post-failure behavior models on the THM behavior evolution. It is shown that different drainage conditions affect the thermally induced pore pressures that, in turn, influence the onset of softening. The constitutive model presented constitutes a promising approach for simulating the most important features of the THM behavior of clay rocks. It is a tool with a high potential for application to several relevant case studies, such as thermal fracturing analysis of nuclear waste disposal systems.
文摘To accelerate the practicality of electromagnetic railguns,it is necessary to use a combination of threedimensional numerical simulation and experiments to study the mechanism of bore damage.In this paper,a three-dimensional numerical model of the augmented railgun with four parallel unconventional rails is introduced to simulate the internal ballistic process and realize the multi-physics field coupling calculation of the rail gun,and a test experiment of a medium-caliber electromagnetic launcher powered by pulse formation network(PFN)is carried out.Various test methods such as spectrometer,fiber grating and high-speed camera are used to test several parameters such as muzzle initial velocity,transient magnetic field strength and stress-strain of rail.Combining the simulation results and experimental data,the damage condition of the contact surface is analyzed.
基金supported by the project of the China Geological Survey(DD20230591).
文摘To enhance the prediction accuracy of landslides in in Longyan City,China,this study developed a methodology for geologic hazard susceptibility assessment based on a coupled model composed of a Geographic Information System(GIS)with integrated spatial data,a frequency ratio(FR)model,and a random forest(RF)model(also referred to as the coupled FR-RF model).The coupled FR-RF model was constructed based on the analysis of nine influential factors,including distance from roads,normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),and slope.The performance of the coupled FR-RF model was assessed using metrics such as Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC)and Precision-Recall(PR)curves,yielding Area Under the Curve(AUC)values of 0.93 and 0.95,which indicate high predictive accuracy and reliability for geological hazard forecasting.Based on the model predictions,five susceptibility levels were determined in the study area,providing crucial spatial information for geologic hazard prevention and control.The contributions of various influential factors to landslide susceptibility were determined using SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)analysis and the Gini index,enhancing the model interpretability and transparency.Additionally,this study discussed the limitations of the coupled FR-RF model and the prospects for its improvement using new technologies.This study provides an innovative method and theoretical support for geologic hazard prediction and management,holding promising prospects for application.
文摘The global rise in energy demand, particularly in remote and sparsely populated regions, necessitates innovative and cost-effective electrical distribution solutions. Traditional Rural Electrification (RE) methods, like Conventional Rural Electrification (CRE), have proven economically unfeasible in such areas due to high infrastructure costs and low electricity demand. Consequently, Unconventional Rural Electrification (URE) technologies, such as Capacitor Coupled Substations (CCS), are gaining attention as viable alternatives. This study presents the design and simulation of an 80 kW CCS system, which taps power directly from a 132 kV transmission line to supply low-voltage consumers. The critical components of the CCS, the capacitors are calculated, then a MATLAB/Simulink model with the attained results is executed. Mathematical representation and state-space representation for maintaining the desired tapped voltage area also developed. The research further explores the feasibility and operational performance of this CCS configuration, aiming to address the challenges of rural electrification by offering a sustainable and scalable solution. The results show that the desired value of the tapped voltage can be achieved at any level of High Voltage (HV) with the selection of capacitors that are correctly rated. With an adequately designed control strategy, the research also shows that tapped voltage can be attained under both steady-state and dynamic loads. By leveraging CCS technology, the study demonstrates the potential for delivering reliable electricity to underserved areas, highlighting the system’s practicality and effectiveness in overcoming the limitations of conventional distribution methods.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.U21A20122)Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.LY22E050012)+2 种基金China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Grant Nos.2023T160580,2023M743102)Open Foundation of the State Key Laboratory of Fluid Power and Mechatronic Systems of China (Grant No.GZKF-202225)Students in Zhejiang Province Science and Technology Innovation Plan of China (Grant No.2023R403073)。
文摘Fine particulate matter produced during the rapid industrialization over the past decades can cause significant harm to human health.Twin-fluid atomization technology is an effective means of controlling fine particulate matter pollution.In this paper,the influences of the main parameters on the droplet size,effective atomization range and sound pressure level(SPL)of a twin-fluid nozzle(TFN)are investigated,and in order to improve the atomization performance,a multi-objective synergetic optimization algorithm is presented.A multi-physics coupled acousticmechanics model based on the discrete phase model(DPM),large eddy simulation(LES)model,and Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings(FW-H)model is established,and the numerical simulation results of the multi-physics coupled acoustic-mechanics method are verified via experimental comparison.Based on the analysis of the multi-physics coupled acoustic-mechanics numerical simulation results,the effects of the water flow on the characteristics of the atomization flow distribution were obtained.A multi-physics coupled acoustic-mechanics numerical simulation result was employed to establish an orthogonal test database,and a multi-objective synergetic optimization algorithm was adopted to optimize the key parameters of the TFN.The optimal parameters are as follows:A gas flow of 0.94 m^(3)/h,water flow of 0.0237 m^(3)/h,orifice diameter of the self-excited vibrating cavity(SVC)of 1.19 mm,SVC orifice depth of 0.53 mm,distance between SVC and the outlet of nozzle of 5.11 mm,and a nozzle outlet diameter of 3.15 mm.The droplet particle size in the atomization flow field was significantly reduced,the spray distance improved by 71.56%,and the SPL data at each corresponding measurement point decreased by an average of 38.96%.The conclusions of this study offer a references for future TFN research.
文摘Rural electrification remains a critical challenge in achieving equitable access to electricity, a cornerstone for poverty alleviation, economic growth, and improved living standards. Capacitor Coupled Substations (CCS) offer a promising solution for delivering cost-effective electricity to these underserved areas. However, the integration of multiple CCS units along a transmission network introduces complex interactions that can significantly impact voltage, current, and power flow. This study presents a detailed mathematical model to analyze the effects of varying distances and configurations of multiple CCS units on a transmission network, with a focus on voltage stability, power quality, and reactive power fluctuations. Furthermore, the research addresses the phenomenon of ferroresonance, a critical issue in networks with multiple CCS units, by developing and validating suppression strategies to ensure stable operation. Through simulation and practical testing, the study provides insights into optimizing CCS deployment, ultimately contributing to more reliable and efficient rural electrification solutions.
基金Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research,Grant/Award Number:CRRP2020-09MYKantoush。
文摘The problem of flooding in Central Vietnam in general and the lower Ba River in particular is one of the natural disasters that frequently threatens people's lives and socioeconomic development in the region.Especially,climate change is becoming ever more prominent and hotter,making extreme natural disasters more unusual and unpredictable.In this research,MIKE-FLOOD—a model that connects a 1-dimensional(1-D)MIKE 11 Hydrodynamics(HD)model with a 2-dimensional(2-D)MIKE 21 HD model—was used to set up.The model was calculated for three floods:(1)flood in October 1993,(2)flood in November 2003,and(3)flood in November 2007;these are floods with high frequency and relatively large magnitude.The results show that the 1993 flood rose and receded quickly.The flood peak inundated an area of 22,600 ha,accounting for 52%of the natural area.The flooded areas deeper than 1,2,3,4,and 5m were 16500,11,000,7000,4200,and 2200 ha,respectively.In the center of Tuy Hoa city,the flooded area at the time of maximum water level was almost 100%.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(12471367)。
文摘In this work,we present a parallel implementation of radiation hydrodynamics coupled with particle transport,utilizing software infrastructure JASMIN(J Adaptive Structured Meshes applications INfrastructure)which encapsulates high-performance technology for the numerical simulation of complex applications.Two serial codes,radiation hydrodynamics RH2D and particle transport Sn2D,have been integrated into RHSn2D on JASMIN infrastructure,which can efficiently use thousands of processors to simulate the complex multi-physics phenomena.Moreover,the non-conforming processors strategy has ensured RHSn2D against the serious load imbalance between radiation hydrodynamics and particle transport for large scale parallel simulations.Numerical results show that RHSn2D achieves a parallel efficiency of 17.1%using 90720 cells on 8192 processors compared with 256 processors in the same problem.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.42176221,41901133)Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.XDA19060205)Seed project of Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.YIC-E3518907)。
文摘Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.
