Accurate determination of rock mass parameters is essential for ensuring the accuracy of numericalsimulations. Displacement back-analysis is the most widely used method;however, the reliability of thecurrent approache...Accurate determination of rock mass parameters is essential for ensuring the accuracy of numericalsimulations. Displacement back-analysis is the most widely used method;however, the reliability of thecurrent approaches remains unsatisfactory. Therefore, in this paper, a multistage rock mass parameterback-analysis method, that considers the construction process and displacement losses is proposed andimplemented through the coupling of numerical simulation, auto-machine learning (AutoML), andmulti-objective optimization algorithms (MOOAs). First, a parametric modeling platform for mechanizedtwin tunnels is developed, generating a dataset through extensive numerical simulations. Next, theAutoML method is utilized to establish a surrogate model linking rock parameters and displacements.The tunnel construction process is divided into multiple stages, transforming the rock mass parameterback-analysis into a multi-objective optimization problem, for which multi-objective optimization algorithmsare introduced to obtain the rock mass parameters. The newly proposed rock mass parameterback-analysis method is validated in a mechanized twin tunnel project, and its accuracy and effectivenessare demonstrated. Compared with traditional single-stage back-analysis methods, the proposedmodel decreases the average absolute percentage error from 12.73% to 4.34%, significantly improving theaccuracy of the back-analysis. Moreover, although the accuracy of back analysis significantly increaseswith the number of construction stages considered, the back analysis time is acceptable. This studyprovides a new method for displacement back analysis that is efficient and accurate, thereby paving theway for precise parameter determination in numerical simulations.展开更多
Background: Mortality outcomes in trials of low-dose computed tomography(CT) screening for lung cancer are inconsistent. This study aimed to evaluate whether CT screening in urban areas of China could reduce lung canc...Background: Mortality outcomes in trials of low-dose computed tomography(CT) screening for lung cancer are inconsistent. This study aimed to evaluate whether CT screening in urban areas of China could reduce lung cancer mortality and to investigate the factors that associate with the screening effect.Methods: A decision tree model with three scenarios(low-dose CT screening, chest X-ray screening, and no screening) was developed to compare screening results in a simulated Chinese urban cohort(100,000 smokers aged45-80 years). Data of participant characteristics were obtained from national registries and epidemiological surveys for estimating lung cancer prevalence. The selection of other tree variables such as sensitivities and specificities of low-dose CT and chest X-ray screening were based on literature research. Differences in lung cancer mortality(primary outcome), false diagnoses, and deaths due to false diagnosis were calculated. Sensitivity analyses were performed to identify the factors that associate with the screening results and to ascertain worst and optimal screening effects considering possible ranges of the variables.Results: Among the 100,000 subjects, there were 448,541, and 591 lung cancer deaths in the low-dose CT, chest X-ray, and no screening scenarios, respectively(17.2% reduction in low-dose CT screening over chest X-ray screening and 24.2% over no screening). The costs of the two screening scenarios were 9387 and 2497 false diagnoses and 7and 2 deaths due to false diagnosis among the 100,000 persons, respectively. The factors that most influenced death reduction with low-dose CT screening over no screening were lung cancer prevalence in the screened cohort, lowdose CT sensitivity, and proportion of early-stage cancers among low-dose CT detected lung cancers. Considering all possibilities, reduction in deaths(relative numbers) with low-dose CT screening in the worst and optimal cases were16(5.4%) and 288(40.2%) over no screening, respectively.Conclusions: In terms of mortality outcomes, our findings favor conducting low-dose CT screening in urban China.However, approaches to reducing false diagnoses and optimizing important screening conditions such as enrollment criteria for screening are highly needed.展开更多
The conventional data envelopment analysis （DEA） measures the relative efficiencies of a set of decision making units with exact values of inputs and outputs. In real-world prob- lems, however, inputs and outputs ty...The conventional data envelopment analysis （DEA） measures the relative efficiencies of a set of decision making units with exact values of inputs and outputs. In real-world prob- lems, however, inputs and outputs typically have some levels of fuzziness. To analyze a decision making unit （DMU） with fuzzy input/output data, previous studies provided the fuzzy DEA model and proposed an associated evaluating approach. Nonetheless, numerous deficiencies must still be improved, including the α- cut approaches, types of fuzzy numbers, and ranking techniques. Moreover, a fuzzy sample DMU still cannot be evaluated for the Fuzzy DEA model. Therefore, this paper proposes a fuzzy DEA model based on sample decision making unit （FSDEA）. Five eval- uation approaches and the related algorithm and ranking methods are provided to test the fuzzy sample DMU of the FSDEA model. A numerical experiment is used to demonstrate and compare the results with those obtained using alternative approaches.展开更多
A proper weapon system is very important for a na- tional defense system. Generally, it means selecting the optimal weapon system among many alternatives, which is a multiple- attribute decision making （MADM） proble...A proper weapon system is very important for a na- tional defense system. Generally, it means selecting the optimal weapon system among many alternatives, which is a multiple- attribute decision making （MADM） problem. This paper proposes a new mathematical model based on the response surface method （RSM） and the grey relational analysis （GRA）. RSM is used to obtain the experimental points and analyze the factors that have a significant impact on the selection results. GRA is used to an- alyze the trend relationship between alternatives and reference series. And then an RSM model is obtained, which can be used to calculate all alternatives and obtain ranking results. A real world application is introduced to illustrate the utilization of the model for the weapon selection problem. The results show that this model can be used to help decision-makers to make a quick comparison of alternatives and select a proper weapon system from multiple alternatives, which is an effective and adaptable method for solving the weapon system selection problem.展开更多
With the high speed, the rotor of magnetically suspended permanent magnet synchronous motor(MSPMSM) suffers great thermal stress and mechanical stress resulting from the temperature rise problem caused by rotor losses...With the high speed, the rotor of magnetically suspended permanent magnet synchronous motor(MSPMSM) suffers great thermal stress and mechanical stress resulting from the temperature rise problem caused by rotor losses, which leads to instability and inefficiency.In this paper, the mechanical–temperature field coupling analysis is conducted to analyze the relationship between the temperature field and structure, and multi-objective optimization of a rotor is performed to improve the design reliability and efficiency. Firstly, the temperature field is calculated by the 2 D finite element model of MSPMSM and the method of applying the 2 D temperature result to the 3 D finite element model of the motor rotor equivalently is proposed. Then the thermal–structure coupling analysis is processed through mathematic method and finite element method(FEM),in which the 3 D finite element model is established precisely in a way and approaches the practical operation state further. Moreover, the impact produced by the temperature and structure on the mechanical strength is analyzed in detail. Finally, the optimization mathematical model of the motor rotor is established with Sequential Quadratic Programming-NLPQL selected in the optimization scheme. Through optimization, the strength of the components in the motor rotor increases obviously and satisfies the design requirement, which to a great extend enhances the service life of the MSPMSM rotor.展开更多
Proper solid waste disposal is an important socioeconomic concern for all developing countries.Municipalities have their own policies,individual approaches and methods to manage the solid wastes.They consider wastelan...Proper solid waste disposal is an important socioeconomic concern for all developing countries.Municipalities have their own policies,individual approaches and methods to manage the solid wastes.They consider wastelands outside the urban area as the best suitable for the solid waste disposal.Such improper site selection will create morphological changes that lead to environmental hazards in the urban and its surrounding areas.In this research,the site selection for urban solid waste disposal in the Coimbatore district used geographical information system(GIS)and multi-criteria decision analysis(MCDA).Thematic layers of lineament density,landuse/landcover,population density,groundwater depth,drainage density,slope,soil texture,geology and geomorphology were considered as primary criteria and weights for criteria,and sub-criteria were assigned by MCDA analysis.The resultant weight score was validated by consistency ratio so that the efficiency of the selected criteria was justified.The overlay analysis in GIS environment provides 17 potential zones in Coimbatore district,among which,four suitable sites were screened and refined with the help of field investigation and visual interpretation of satellite image.The result of landfill suitability map shows the effectiveness of the proposed method.展开更多
A decision support system, including a multi-objective optimization framework and a multi-attribute decision making approach is proposed for satellite equipment layout. Firstly, given three objectives (to minimize the...A decision support system, including a multi-objective optimization framework and a multi-attribute decision making approach is proposed for satellite equipment layout. Firstly, given three objectives (to minimize the C.G. offset, the cross moments of inertia and the space debris impact risk), we develop a threedimensional layout optimization model. Unlike most of the previous works just focusing on mass characteristics of the system, a space debris impact risk index is developed. Secondly, we develop an efficient optimization framework for the integration of computer-aided design (CAD) software as well as the optimization algorithm to obtain the Pareto front of the layout optimization problem. Thirdly, after obtaining the candidate solutions, we present a multi-attribute decision making approach, which integrates the smart Pareto filter and the correlation coefficient and standard deviation (CCSD) method to select the best tradeoff solutions on the optimal Pareto fronts. Finally, the framework and the decision making approach are applied to a case study of a satellite platform.展开更多
Fetal distress is one of the main factors to cesarean section in obstetrics and gynecology. If the fetus lack of oxygen in uterus, threat to the fetal health and fetal death could happen. Cardiotocography (CTG) is the...Fetal distress is one of the main factors to cesarean section in obstetrics and gynecology. If the fetus lack of oxygen in uterus, threat to the fetal health and fetal death could happen. Cardiotocography (CTG) is the most widely used technique to monitor the fetal health and fetal heart rate (FHR) is an important index to identify occurs of fetal distress. This study is to propose discriminant analysis (DA), decision tree (DT), and artificial neural network (ANN) to evaluate fetal distress. The results show that the accuracies of DA, DT and ANN are 82.1%, 86.36% and 97.78%, respectively.展开更多
Purpose:The purpose of this study was to use decision tree modeling to generate profiles of children and youth who were more and less likely to meet the Canadian 24-h movement guidelines during the coronavirus disease...Purpose:The purpose of this study was to use decision tree modeling to generate profiles of children and youth who were more and less likely to meet the Canadian 24-h movement guidelines during the coronavirus disease-2019(COVID-19)outbreak.Methods:Data for this study were from a nationally representative sample of 1472 Canadian parents(Meanage=45.12,SD=7.55)of children(511 years old)or youth(1217 years old).Data were collected in April 2020 via an online survey.Survey items assessed demographic,behavioral,social,micro-environmental,and macro-environmental characteristics.Four decision trees of adherence and non-adherence to all movement recommendations combined and each individual movement recommendation(physical activity(PA),screen time,and sleep)were generated.Results:Results revealed specific combinations of adherence and non-adherence characteristics.Characteristics associated with adherence to the recommendation(s)included high parental perceived capability to restrict screen time,annual household income ofCAD 100,000,increases in children’s and youth’s outdoor PA/sport since the COVID-19 outbreak began,being a boy,having parents younger than 43 years old,and small increases in children’s and youth’s sleep duration since the COVID-19 outbreak began.Characteristics associated with non-adherence to the recommendation(s)included low parental perceived capability to restrict screen time,youth aged 1217 years,decreases in children’s and youth’s outdoor PA/sport since the COVID-19 outbreak began,primary residences located in all provinces except Quebec,low parental perceived capability to support children’s and youth’s sleep and PA,and annual household income ofCAD 99,999.Conclusion:Our results show that specific characteristics interact to contribute to(non)adherence to the movement behavior recommendations.Results highlight the importance of targeting parents’perceived capability for the promotion of children’s and youth’s movement behaviors during challenging times of the COVID-19 pandemic,paying particular attention to enhancing parental perceived capability to restrict screen time.展开更多
Buried natural gas pipelines are vulnerable to external corrosion because they are encased in a soil environment for a long time.Identifying the causes of external corrosion and taking specific maintenance measures is...Buried natural gas pipelines are vulnerable to external corrosion because they are encased in a soil environment for a long time.Identifying the causes of external corrosion and taking specific maintenance measures is essential.In this work,a risk analysis and maintenance decision-making model for natural gas pipelines with external corrosion is proposed based on a Bayesian network.A fault tree model is first employed to identify the causes of external corrosion.The Bayesian network for risk analysis is determined accordingly.The maintenance strategies are then inserted into the Bayesian network to show a reduction of the risk.The costs of maintenance strategies and the reduced risk after maintenance are combined in an optimization function to build a decision-making model.Because of the limitations of historical data,some of the parameters in the Bayesian network are obtained from a probabilistic estimation model,which combines expert experience and fuzzy set theory.Finally,a case study is carried out to verify the feasibility of the maintenance decision model.This indicates that the method proposed in this work can be used to provide effective maintenance schemes for different pipeline external corrosion scenarios and to reduce the possible losses caused by external corrosion.展开更多
A vague-set-based fuzzy multi-objective decision making model is developed for evaluating bidding plans in a bid- ding purchase process. A group of decision-makers (DMs) first independently assess bidding plans accord...A vague-set-based fuzzy multi-objective decision making model is developed for evaluating bidding plans in a bid- ding purchase process. A group of decision-makers (DMs) first independently assess bidding plans according to their experience and preferences, and these assessments may be expressed as linguistic terms, which are then converted to fuzzy numbers. The resulting decision matrices are then transformed to objective membership grade matrices. The lower bound of satisfaction and upper bound of dissatisfaction are used to determine each bidding plan’s supporting, opposing, and neutral objective sets, which together determine the vague value of a bidding plan. Finally, a score function is employed to rank all bidding plans. A new score function based on vague sets is introduced in the model and a novel method is presented for calculating the lower bound of sat- isfaction and upper bound of dissatisfaction. In a vague-set-based fuzzy multi-objective decision making model, different valua- tions for upper and lower bounds of satisfaction usually lead to distinct ranking results. Therefore, it is crucial to effectively contain DMs’ arbitrariness and subjectivity when these values are determined.展开更多
Oilseed rape is one of the most important oil crops globally.Attaining the appropriate cultivation method(planting pattern and nitrogen level)is necessary to achieve high yield,quality and resource utilization efficie...Oilseed rape is one of the most important oil crops globally.Attaining the appropriate cultivation method(planting pattern and nitrogen level)is necessary to achieve high yield,quality and resource utilization efficiency.However,the optimal method for oilseed rape varies across countries and regions.The objective of the present study was to determine an appropriate cultivation method,including planting pattern and nitrogen application,for winter oilseed rape in northwestern China.Two planting patterns:ridge film mulching and furrow planting(RFMF)and flat planting(FP),and six nitrogen(N)amounts:0(N0),60(N60),120(N120),180(N180),240(N240),and 300(N300)kg N ha–1 were applied across three growing seasons(2014–2017).Three comprehensive decision analysis methods:principal component analysis,grey correlation degree analysis and the combined entropy weight and dynamic technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution method were used to evaluate the growth and physiological indicators,nutrient uptake,yield,quality,evapotranspiration,and water use efficiency of winter oilseed rape.Planting pattern,nitrogen amount and their interaction significantly affected the indicators aforementioned.The RFMF pattern significantly increased all indicators over the FP pattern.Application of N also markedly increased all the indicators except for seed oil content,but the yield,oil production and water use efficiency were decreased when N fertilizer exceeded 180 kg N ha–1 under FP and 240 kg N ha–1 under RFFM.The evaluation results of the three comprehensive decision analysis methods indicated that RFMF planting pattern with 240 kg N ha–1 is an appropriate cultivation method for winter oilseed rape in northwestern China.These findings are of vital significance to maximize yield,optimize quality and improve resource use efficiencies of winter oilseed rape.展开更多
Based on improved multi-objective particle swarm optimization（MOPSO） algorithm with principal component analysis（PCA） methodology, an efficient high-dimension multiobjective optimization method is proposed, which,...Based on improved multi-objective particle swarm optimization（MOPSO） algorithm with principal component analysis（PCA） methodology, an efficient high-dimension multiobjective optimization method is proposed, which, as the purpose of this paper, aims to improve the convergence of Pareto front in multi-objective optimization design. The mathematical efficiency,the physical reasonableness and the reliability in dealing with redundant objectives of PCA are verified by typical DTLZ5 test function and multi-objective correlation analysis of supercritical airfoil,and the proposed method is integrated into aircraft multi-disciplinary design（AMDEsign） platform, which contains aerodynamics, stealth and structure weight analysis and optimization module.Then the proposed method is used for the multi-point integrated aerodynamic optimization of a wide-body passenger aircraft, in which the redundant objectives identified by PCA are transformed to optimization constraints, and several design methods are compared. The design results illustrate that the strategy used in this paper is sufficient and multi-point design requirements of the passenger aircraft are reached. The visualization level of non-dominant Pareto set is improved by effectively reducing the dimension without losing the primary feature of the problem.展开更多
The pressurizing pipeline of hot press resonates under the excitation load,which poses a serious hidden danger to the safety of the equipment and the operator.In order to increase the natural frequency of the pressuri...The pressurizing pipeline of hot press resonates under the excitation load,which poses a serious hidden danger to the safety of the equipment and the operator.In order to increase the natural frequency of the pressurizing pipeline,modal analysis of the pressurizing pipeline is carried out to study the mechanism of pipeline vibration and common vibration reduction measures.A method of increasing the natural frequency of the pressurizing pipeline was analyzed.The influence of pipeline clamp assembly stiffness,pipeline clamp number and pipeline clamp installation position on the mode of the pressurizing pipeline is studied.Sensitivity analysis is carried out to study the influence of the various parameters on the mode of the pressurizing pipeline.Genetic algorithm based on Pareto optimality is introduced for multi-objective optimization of pressurizing pipeline.The optimization results show that the natural frequency of the pressurizing pipeline increases by 2.4%and the displacement response is reduced by 17.7%.展开更多
Real-time prediction of excavation-induced displacement of retaining pile during the deep excavation process is crucial for construction safety.This paper proposes a modified back analysis method with multi-objective ...Real-time prediction of excavation-induced displacement of retaining pile during the deep excavation process is crucial for construction safety.This paper proposes a modified back analysis method with multi-objective optimization procedure,which enables a real-time prediction of horizontal displacement of retaining pile during construction.As opposed to the traditional stage-by-stage back analysis,time series monitoring data till the current excavation stage are utilized to form a multi-objective function.Then,the multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) algorithm is applied for parameter identification.The optimized model parameters are immediately adopted to predict the excavation-induced pile deformation in the continuous construction stages.To achieve efficient parameter optimization and real-time prediction of system behavior,the back propagation neural network (BPNN) is established to substitute the finite element model,which is further implemented together with MOPSO for automatic operation.The proposed approach is applied in the Taihu tunnel excavation project,where the effectiveness of the method is demonstrated via the comparisons with the site monitoring data.The method is reliable with a prediction accuracy of more than 90%.Moreover,different optimization algorithms,including non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II),Pareto Envelope-based Selection Algorithm II (PESA-II) and MOPSO,are compared,and their influences on the prediction accuracy at different excavation stages are studied.The results show that MOPSO has the best performance for high dimensional optimization task.展开更多
The existing algorithms for solving multi-objective optimization problems fall into three main categories:Decomposition-based,dominance-based,and indicator-based.Traditional multi-objective optimization problemsmainly...The existing algorithms for solving multi-objective optimization problems fall into three main categories:Decomposition-based,dominance-based,and indicator-based.Traditional multi-objective optimization problemsmainly focus on objectives,treating decision variables as a total variable to solve the problem without consideringthe critical role of decision variables in objective optimization.As seen,a variety of decision variable groupingalgorithms have been proposed.However,these algorithms are relatively broad for the changes of most decisionvariables in the evolution process and are time-consuming in the process of finding the Pareto frontier.To solvethese problems,a multi-objective optimization algorithm for grouping decision variables based on extreme pointPareto frontier(MOEA-DV/EPF)is proposed.This algorithm adopts a preprocessing rule to solve the Paretooptimal solution set of extreme points generated by simultaneous evolution in various target directions,obtainsthe basic Pareto front surface to determine the convergence effect,and analyzes the convergence and distributioneffects of decision variables.In the later stages of algorithm optimization,different mutation strategies are adoptedaccording to the nature of the decision variables to speed up the rate of evolution to obtain excellent individuals,thusenhancing the performance of the algorithm.Evaluation validation of the test functions shows that this algorithmcan solve the multi-objective optimization problem more efficiently.展开更多
The rapid development of multimodal transportation system prompts travellers to choose multiple transportation modes, such as private vehicles or taxi, transit(subways or buses), or park-and-ride combinations for urba...The rapid development of multimodal transportation system prompts travellers to choose multiple transportation modes, such as private vehicles or taxi, transit(subways or buses), or park-and-ride combinations for urban trips. Traffic corridor is a major scenario that supports travellers to commute from suburban residential areas to central working areas. Studying their modal choice behaviour is receiving more and more interests. On one hand, it will guide the travellers to rationally choose their most economic and beneficial mode for urban trips. On the other hand, it will help traffic operators to make more appropriate policies to enhance the share of public transit in order to alleviate the traffic congestion and produce more economic and social benefits. To analyze the travel modal choice, a generalized cost model for three typical modes is first established to evaluate each different travel alternative. Then, random utility theory(RUT) and decision field theory(DFT) are introduced to describe the decision-making process how travellers make their mode choices. Further, some important factors that may influence the modal choice behaviour are discussed as well. To test the feasibility of the proposed model, a field test in Beijing was conducted to collect the real-time data and estimate the model parameters. The improvements in the test results and analysis show new advances in the development of travel mode choice on multimodal transportation networks.展开更多
Importance analysis quantifies the critical degree of individual component. Compared with the traditional binary state system,importance analysis of the multi-state system is more aligned with the practice. Because th...Importance analysis quantifies the critical degree of individual component. Compared with the traditional binary state system,importance analysis of the multi-state system is more aligned with the practice. Because the multi-valued decision diagram( MDD) can reflect the relationship between the components and the system state bilaterally, it was introduced into the reliability calculation of the multi-state system( MSS). The building method,simplified criteria,and path search and probability algorithm of MSS structure function MDD were given,and the reliability of the system was calculated. The computing methods of importance based on MDD and direct partial logic derivatives( DPLD) were presented. The diesel engine fuel supply system was taken as an example to illustrate the proposed method. The results show that not only the probability of the system in each state can be easily obtained,but also the influence degree of each component and its state on the system reliability can be obtained,which is conducive to the condition monitoring and structure optimization of the system.展开更多
Purpose:This paper examines factors of payment decision as well as the role each factor plays in casual configurations leading to high payment intention under systematic and heuristic information processing routes.Des...Purpose:This paper examines factors of payment decision as well as the role each factor plays in casual configurations leading to high payment intention under systematic and heuristic information processing routes.Design/methodology/approach:Based on heuristic-systematic model(HSM),we propose a configurational analytic framework to investigate complex casual relationships between influencing factors and payment decision.In line with this approach,we use fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis(fsQCA)to analyze data crawled from Zhihu.com.Findings:The number of previous consultations is a necessary element in all five equivalent configurations which lead to high intention in payment decision.The heuristic processing route plays a core role while the systematic processing route plays a peripheral role in payment decision-making process.Research limitations:Research is limited in that moderating effect of professional fields has not been considered in the framework.Practical implications:Configurations in results can assist managers of knowledge communities and paid Q&A service providers in the management of information elements to motivate more payment decision.Originality/value:This paper is one of the few studies to apply HSM theory and fsQCA method with respect to the payment decision in paid Q&A.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.52090081,52079068)the State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Hydraulic Engineering(Grant No.2021-KY-04).
文摘Accurate determination of rock mass parameters is essential for ensuring the accuracy of numericalsimulations. Displacement back-analysis is the most widely used method;however, the reliability of thecurrent approaches remains unsatisfactory. Therefore, in this paper, a multistage rock mass parameterback-analysis method, that considers the construction process and displacement losses is proposed andimplemented through the coupling of numerical simulation, auto-machine learning (AutoML), andmulti-objective optimization algorithms (MOOAs). First, a parametric modeling platform for mechanizedtwin tunnels is developed, generating a dataset through extensive numerical simulations. Next, theAutoML method is utilized to establish a surrogate model linking rock parameters and displacements.The tunnel construction process is divided into multiple stages, transforming the rock mass parameterback-analysis into a multi-objective optimization problem, for which multi-objective optimization algorithmsare introduced to obtain the rock mass parameters. The newly proposed rock mass parameterback-analysis method is validated in a mechanized twin tunnel project, and its accuracy and effectivenessare demonstrated. Compared with traditional single-stage back-analysis methods, the proposedmodel decreases the average absolute percentage error from 12.73% to 4.34%, significantly improving theaccuracy of the back-analysis. Moreover, although the accuracy of back analysis significantly increaseswith the number of construction stages considered, the back analysis time is acceptable. This studyprovides a new method for displacement back analysis that is efficient and accurate, thereby paving theway for precise parameter determination in numerical simulations.
基金supported by Peking Union Medical College Youth Fund and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.2017310049)
文摘Background: Mortality outcomes in trials of low-dose computed tomography(CT) screening for lung cancer are inconsistent. This study aimed to evaluate whether CT screening in urban areas of China could reduce lung cancer mortality and to investigate the factors that associate with the screening effect.Methods: A decision tree model with three scenarios(low-dose CT screening, chest X-ray screening, and no screening) was developed to compare screening results in a simulated Chinese urban cohort(100,000 smokers aged45-80 years). Data of participant characteristics were obtained from national registries and epidemiological surveys for estimating lung cancer prevalence. The selection of other tree variables such as sensitivities and specificities of low-dose CT and chest X-ray screening were based on literature research. Differences in lung cancer mortality(primary outcome), false diagnoses, and deaths due to false diagnosis were calculated. Sensitivity analyses were performed to identify the factors that associate with the screening results and to ascertain worst and optimal screening effects considering possible ranges of the variables.Results: Among the 100,000 subjects, there were 448,541, and 591 lung cancer deaths in the low-dose CT, chest X-ray, and no screening scenarios, respectively(17.2% reduction in low-dose CT screening over chest X-ray screening and 24.2% over no screening). The costs of the two screening scenarios were 9387 and 2497 false diagnoses and 7and 2 deaths due to false diagnosis among the 100,000 persons, respectively. The factors that most influenced death reduction with low-dose CT screening over no screening were lung cancer prevalence in the screened cohort, lowdose CT sensitivity, and proportion of early-stage cancers among low-dose CT detected lung cancers. Considering all possibilities, reduction in deaths(relative numbers) with low-dose CT screening in the worst and optimal cases were16(5.4%) and 288(40.2%) over no screening, respectively.Conclusions: In terms of mortality outcomes, our findings favor conducting low-dose CT screening in urban China.However, approaches to reducing false diagnoses and optimizing important screening conditions such as enrollment criteria for screening are highly needed.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (70961005)211 Project for Postgraduate Student Program of Inner Mongolia University+1 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of Inner Mongolia (2010Zd342011MS1002)
文摘The conventional data envelopment analysis （DEA） measures the relative efficiencies of a set of decision making units with exact values of inputs and outputs. In real-world prob- lems, however, inputs and outputs typically have some levels of fuzziness. To analyze a decision making unit （DMU） with fuzzy input/output data, previous studies provided the fuzzy DEA model and proposed an associated evaluating approach. Nonetheless, numerous deficiencies must still be improved, including the α- cut approaches, types of fuzzy numbers, and ranking techniques. Moreover, a fuzzy sample DMU still cannot be evaluated for the Fuzzy DEA model. Therefore, this paper proposes a fuzzy DEA model based on sample decision making unit （FSDEA）. Five eval- uation approaches and the related algorithm and ranking methods are provided to test the fuzzy sample DMU of the FSDEA model. A numerical experiment is used to demonstrate and compare the results with those obtained using alternative approaches.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51375389)
文摘A proper weapon system is very important for a na- tional defense system. Generally, it means selecting the optimal weapon system among many alternatives, which is a multiple- attribute decision making （MADM） problem. This paper proposes a new mathematical model based on the response surface method （RSM） and the grey relational analysis （GRA）. RSM is used to obtain the experimental points and analyze the factors that have a significant impact on the selection results. GRA is used to an- alyze the trend relationship between alternatives and reference series. And then an RSM model is obtained, which can be used to calculate all alternatives and obtain ranking results. A real world application is introduced to illustrate the utilization of the model for the weapon selection problem. The results show that this model can be used to help decision-makers to make a quick comparison of alternatives and select a proper weapon system from multiple alternatives, which is an effective and adaptable method for solving the weapon system selection problem.
基金co-supported by the Excellent Youth Science Foundation of China(No.51722501)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2016M600027)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.51575025 and 61703022)the Preliminary Exploration of Project of China(No.7131474)
文摘With the high speed, the rotor of magnetically suspended permanent magnet synchronous motor(MSPMSM) suffers great thermal stress and mechanical stress resulting from the temperature rise problem caused by rotor losses, which leads to instability and inefficiency.In this paper, the mechanical–temperature field coupling analysis is conducted to analyze the relationship between the temperature field and structure, and multi-objective optimization of a rotor is performed to improve the design reliability and efficiency. Firstly, the temperature field is calculated by the 2 D finite element model of MSPMSM and the method of applying the 2 D temperature result to the 3 D finite element model of the motor rotor equivalently is proposed. Then the thermal–structure coupling analysis is processed through mathematic method and finite element method(FEM),in which the 3 D finite element model is established precisely in a way and approaches the practical operation state further. Moreover, the impact produced by the temperature and structure on the mechanical strength is analyzed in detail. Finally, the optimization mathematical model of the motor rotor is established with Sequential Quadratic Programming-NLPQL selected in the optimization scheme. Through optimization, the strength of the components in the motor rotor increases obviously and satisfies the design requirement, which to a great extend enhances the service life of the MSPMSM rotor.
文摘Proper solid waste disposal is an important socioeconomic concern for all developing countries.Municipalities have their own policies,individual approaches and methods to manage the solid wastes.They consider wastelands outside the urban area as the best suitable for the solid waste disposal.Such improper site selection will create morphological changes that lead to environmental hazards in the urban and its surrounding areas.In this research,the site selection for urban solid waste disposal in the Coimbatore district used geographical information system(GIS)and multi-criteria decision analysis(MCDA).Thematic layers of lineament density,landuse/landcover,population density,groundwater depth,drainage density,slope,soil texture,geology and geomorphology were considered as primary criteria and weights for criteria,and sub-criteria were assigned by MCDA analysis.The resultant weight score was validated by consistency ratio so that the efficiency of the selected criteria was justified.The overlay analysis in GIS environment provides 17 potential zones in Coimbatore district,among which,four suitable sites were screened and refined with the help of field investigation and visual interpretation of satellite image.The result of landfill suitability map shows the effectiveness of the proposed method.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51405499)
文摘A decision support system, including a multi-objective optimization framework and a multi-attribute decision making approach is proposed for satellite equipment layout. Firstly, given three objectives (to minimize the C.G. offset, the cross moments of inertia and the space debris impact risk), we develop a threedimensional layout optimization model. Unlike most of the previous works just focusing on mass characteristics of the system, a space debris impact risk index is developed. Secondly, we develop an efficient optimization framework for the integration of computer-aided design (CAD) software as well as the optimization algorithm to obtain the Pareto front of the layout optimization problem. Thirdly, after obtaining the candidate solutions, we present a multi-attribute decision making approach, which integrates the smart Pareto filter and the correlation coefficient and standard deviation (CCSD) method to select the best tradeoff solutions on the optimal Pareto fronts. Finally, the framework and the decision making approach are applied to a case study of a satellite platform.
文摘Fetal distress is one of the main factors to cesarean section in obstetrics and gynecology. If the fetus lack of oxygen in uterus, threat to the fetal health and fetal death could happen. Cardiotocography (CTG) is the most widely used technique to monitor the fetal health and fetal heart rate (FHR) is an important index to identify occurs of fetal distress. This study is to propose discriminant analysis (DA), decision tree (DT), and artificial neural network (ANN) to evaluate fetal distress. The results show that the accuracies of DA, DT and ANN are 82.1%, 86.36% and 97.78%, respectively.
文摘Purpose:The purpose of this study was to use decision tree modeling to generate profiles of children and youth who were more and less likely to meet the Canadian 24-h movement guidelines during the coronavirus disease-2019(COVID-19)outbreak.Methods:Data for this study were from a nationally representative sample of 1472 Canadian parents(Meanage=45.12,SD=7.55)of children(511 years old)or youth(1217 years old).Data were collected in April 2020 via an online survey.Survey items assessed demographic,behavioral,social,micro-environmental,and macro-environmental characteristics.Four decision trees of adherence and non-adherence to all movement recommendations combined and each individual movement recommendation(physical activity(PA),screen time,and sleep)were generated.Results:Results revealed specific combinations of adherence and non-adherence characteristics.Characteristics associated with adherence to the recommendation(s)included high parental perceived capability to restrict screen time,annual household income ofCAD 100,000,increases in children’s and youth’s outdoor PA/sport since the COVID-19 outbreak began,being a boy,having parents younger than 43 years old,and small increases in children’s and youth’s sleep duration since the COVID-19 outbreak began.Characteristics associated with non-adherence to the recommendation(s)included low parental perceived capability to restrict screen time,youth aged 1217 years,decreases in children’s and youth’s outdoor PA/sport since the COVID-19 outbreak began,primary residences located in all provinces except Quebec,low parental perceived capability to support children’s and youth’s sleep and PA,and annual household income ofCAD 99,999.Conclusion:Our results show that specific characteristics interact to contribute to(non)adherence to the movement behavior recommendations.Results highlight the importance of targeting parents’perceived capability for the promotion of children’s and youth’s movement behaviors during challenging times of the COVID-19 pandemic,paying particular attention to enhancing parental perceived capability to restrict screen time.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2018YFC0809300)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51806247)+2 种基金the Key Technology Project of Petro China Co Ltd.(Grant No.ZLZX2020-05)the Foundation of Sinopec(Grant No.320034)the Science Foundation of China University of Petroleum,Beijing(Grant No.2462020YXZZ052)
文摘Buried natural gas pipelines are vulnerable to external corrosion because they are encased in a soil environment for a long time.Identifying the causes of external corrosion and taking specific maintenance measures is essential.In this work,a risk analysis and maintenance decision-making model for natural gas pipelines with external corrosion is proposed based on a Bayesian network.A fault tree model is first employed to identify the causes of external corrosion.The Bayesian network for risk analysis is determined accordingly.The maintenance strategies are then inserted into the Bayesian network to show a reduction of the risk.The costs of maintenance strategies and the reduced risk after maintenance are combined in an optimization function to build a decision-making model.Because of the limitations of historical data,some of the parameters in the Bayesian network are obtained from a probabilistic estimation model,which combines expert experience and fuzzy set theory.Finally,a case study is carried out to verify the feasibility of the maintenance decision model.This indicates that the method proposed in this work can be used to provide effective maintenance schemes for different pipeline external corrosion scenarios and to reduce the possible losses caused by external corrosion.
基金Project (No. K81077) supported by the Department of Automation, Xiamen University, China
文摘A vague-set-based fuzzy multi-objective decision making model is developed for evaluating bidding plans in a bid- ding purchase process. A group of decision-makers (DMs) first independently assess bidding plans according to their experience and preferences, and these assessments may be expressed as linguistic terms, which are then converted to fuzzy numbers. The resulting decision matrices are then transformed to objective membership grade matrices. The lower bound of satisfaction and upper bound of dissatisfaction are used to determine each bidding plan’s supporting, opposing, and neutral objective sets, which together determine the vague value of a bidding plan. Finally, a score function is employed to rank all bidding plans. A new score function based on vague sets is introduced in the model and a novel method is presented for calculating the lower bound of sat- isfaction and upper bound of dissatisfaction. In a vague-set-based fuzzy multi-objective decision making model, different valua- tions for upper and lower bounds of satisfaction usually lead to distinct ranking results. Therefore, it is crucial to effectively contain DMs’ arbitrariness and subjectivity when these values are determined.
基金This research was supported by the Special Fund forAgroscientific Research in the Public Interest,China(201503125 and 201503105)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China(2452018089).
文摘Oilseed rape is one of the most important oil crops globally.Attaining the appropriate cultivation method(planting pattern and nitrogen level)is necessary to achieve high yield,quality and resource utilization efficiency.However,the optimal method for oilseed rape varies across countries and regions.The objective of the present study was to determine an appropriate cultivation method,including planting pattern and nitrogen application,for winter oilseed rape in northwestern China.Two planting patterns:ridge film mulching and furrow planting(RFMF)and flat planting(FP),and six nitrogen(N)amounts:0(N0),60(N60),120(N120),180(N180),240(N240),and 300(N300)kg N ha–1 were applied across three growing seasons(2014–2017).Three comprehensive decision analysis methods:principal component analysis,grey correlation degree analysis and the combined entropy weight and dynamic technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution method were used to evaluate the growth and physiological indicators,nutrient uptake,yield,quality,evapotranspiration,and water use efficiency of winter oilseed rape.Planting pattern,nitrogen amount and their interaction significantly affected the indicators aforementioned.The RFMF pattern significantly increased all indicators over the FP pattern.Application of N also markedly increased all the indicators except for seed oil content,but the yield,oil production and water use efficiency were decreased when N fertilizer exceeded 180 kg N ha–1 under FP and 240 kg N ha–1 under RFFM.The evaluation results of the three comprehensive decision analysis methods indicated that RFMF planting pattern with 240 kg N ha–1 is an appropriate cultivation method for winter oilseed rape in northwestern China.These findings are of vital significance to maximize yield,optimize quality and improve resource use efficiencies of winter oilseed rape.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.11402288)
文摘Based on improved multi-objective particle swarm optimization（MOPSO） algorithm with principal component analysis（PCA） methodology, an efficient high-dimension multiobjective optimization method is proposed, which, as the purpose of this paper, aims to improve the convergence of Pareto front in multi-objective optimization design. The mathematical efficiency,the physical reasonableness and the reliability in dealing with redundant objectives of PCA are verified by typical DTLZ5 test function and multi-objective correlation analysis of supercritical airfoil,and the proposed method is integrated into aircraft multi-disciplinary design（AMDEsign） platform, which contains aerodynamics, stealth and structure weight analysis and optimization module.Then the proposed method is used for the multi-point integrated aerodynamic optimization of a wide-body passenger aircraft, in which the redundant objectives identified by PCA are transformed to optimization constraints, and several design methods are compared. The design results illustrate that the strategy used in this paper is sufficient and multi-point design requirements of the passenger aircraft are reached. The visualization level of non-dominant Pareto set is improved by effectively reducing the dimension without losing the primary feature of the problem.
文摘The pressurizing pipeline of hot press resonates under the excitation load,which poses a serious hidden danger to the safety of the equipment and the operator.In order to increase the natural frequency of the pressurizing pipeline,modal analysis of the pressurizing pipeline is carried out to study the mechanism of pipeline vibration and common vibration reduction measures.A method of increasing the natural frequency of the pressurizing pipeline was analyzed.The influence of pipeline clamp assembly stiffness,pipeline clamp number and pipeline clamp installation position on the mode of the pressurizing pipeline is studied.Sensitivity analysis is carried out to study the influence of the various parameters on the mode of the pressurizing pipeline.Genetic algorithm based on Pareto optimality is introduced for multi-objective optimization of pressurizing pipeline.The optimization results show that the natural frequency of the pressurizing pipeline increases by 2.4%and the displacement response is reduced by 17.7%.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.52208380 and 51979270)the Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Geomechanics and Geotechnical Engineering,Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics,Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.SKLGME021022).
文摘Real-time prediction of excavation-induced displacement of retaining pile during the deep excavation process is crucial for construction safety.This paper proposes a modified back analysis method with multi-objective optimization procedure,which enables a real-time prediction of horizontal displacement of retaining pile during construction.As opposed to the traditional stage-by-stage back analysis,time series monitoring data till the current excavation stage are utilized to form a multi-objective function.Then,the multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) algorithm is applied for parameter identification.The optimized model parameters are immediately adopted to predict the excavation-induced pile deformation in the continuous construction stages.To achieve efficient parameter optimization and real-time prediction of system behavior,the back propagation neural network (BPNN) is established to substitute the finite element model,which is further implemented together with MOPSO for automatic operation.The proposed approach is applied in the Taihu tunnel excavation project,where the effectiveness of the method is demonstrated via the comparisons with the site monitoring data.The method is reliable with a prediction accuracy of more than 90%.Moreover,different optimization algorithms,including non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II),Pareto Envelope-based Selection Algorithm II (PESA-II) and MOPSO,are compared,and their influences on the prediction accuracy at different excavation stages are studied.The results show that MOPSO has the best performance for high dimensional optimization task.
基金the Liaoning Province Nature Fundation Project(2022-MS-291)the National Programme for Foreign Expert Projects(G2022006008L)+2 种基金the Basic Research Projects of Liaoning Provincial Department of Education(LJKMZ20220781,LJKMZ20220783,LJKQZ20222457)King Saud University funded this study through theResearcher Support Program Number(RSPD2023R704)King Saud University,Riyadh,Saudi Arabia.
文摘The existing algorithms for solving multi-objective optimization problems fall into three main categories:Decomposition-based,dominance-based,and indicator-based.Traditional multi-objective optimization problemsmainly focus on objectives,treating decision variables as a total variable to solve the problem without consideringthe critical role of decision variables in objective optimization.As seen,a variety of decision variable groupingalgorithms have been proposed.However,these algorithms are relatively broad for the changes of most decisionvariables in the evolution process and are time-consuming in the process of finding the Pareto frontier.To solvethese problems,a multi-objective optimization algorithm for grouping decision variables based on extreme pointPareto frontier(MOEA-DV/EPF)is proposed.This algorithm adopts a preprocessing rule to solve the Paretooptimal solution set of extreme points generated by simultaneous evolution in various target directions,obtainsthe basic Pareto front surface to determine the convergence effect,and analyzes the convergence and distributioneffects of decision variables.In the later stages of algorithm optimization,different mutation strategies are adoptedaccording to the nature of the decision variables to speed up the rate of evolution to obtain excellent individuals,thusenhancing the performance of the algorithm.Evaluation validation of the test functions shows that this algorithmcan solve the multi-objective optimization problem more efficiently.
基金Project(2012CB725405)supported in part by National Basic Research Program of ChinaProject(2014BAG03B01)supported by the National Science and Technology Support Program,China+1 种基金Project(71301083)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(20131089307)supported by the Project Supported by Tsinghua University,China
文摘The rapid development of multimodal transportation system prompts travellers to choose multiple transportation modes, such as private vehicles or taxi, transit(subways or buses), or park-and-ride combinations for urban trips. Traffic corridor is a major scenario that supports travellers to commute from suburban residential areas to central working areas. Studying their modal choice behaviour is receiving more and more interests. On one hand, it will guide the travellers to rationally choose their most economic and beneficial mode for urban trips. On the other hand, it will help traffic operators to make more appropriate policies to enhance the share of public transit in order to alleviate the traffic congestion and produce more economic and social benefits. To analyze the travel modal choice, a generalized cost model for three typical modes is first established to evaluate each different travel alternative. Then, random utility theory(RUT) and decision field theory(DFT) are introduced to describe the decision-making process how travellers make their mode choices. Further, some important factors that may influence the modal choice behaviour are discussed as well. To test the feasibility of the proposed model, a field test in Beijing was conducted to collect the real-time data and estimate the model parameters. The improvements in the test results and analysis show new advances in the development of travel mode choice on multimodal transportation networks.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61164009)the Science and Technology Research Project,Department of Education of Jiangxi Province,China(No.GJJ14420)Natural Science Foundation of Jiangxi Province,China(No.20132BAB206026)
文摘Importance analysis quantifies the critical degree of individual component. Compared with the traditional binary state system,importance analysis of the multi-state system is more aligned with the practice. Because the multi-valued decision diagram( MDD) can reflect the relationship between the components and the system state bilaterally, it was introduced into the reliability calculation of the multi-state system( MSS). The building method,simplified criteria,and path search and probability algorithm of MSS structure function MDD were given,and the reliability of the system was calculated. The computing methods of importance based on MDD and direct partial logic derivatives( DPLD) were presented. The diesel engine fuel supply system was taken as an example to illustrate the proposed method. The results show that not only the probability of the system in each state can be easily obtained,but also the influence degree of each component and its state on the system reliability can be obtained,which is conducive to the condition monitoring and structure optimization of the system.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.71271087)。
文摘Purpose:This paper examines factors of payment decision as well as the role each factor plays in casual configurations leading to high payment intention under systematic and heuristic information processing routes.Design/methodology/approach:Based on heuristic-systematic model(HSM),we propose a configurational analytic framework to investigate complex casual relationships between influencing factors and payment decision.In line with this approach,we use fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis(fsQCA)to analyze data crawled from Zhihu.com.Findings:The number of previous consultations is a necessary element in all five equivalent configurations which lead to high intention in payment decision.The heuristic processing route plays a core role while the systematic processing route plays a peripheral role in payment decision-making process.Research limitations:Research is limited in that moderating effect of professional fields has not been considered in the framework.Practical implications:Configurations in results can assist managers of knowledge communities and paid Q&A service providers in the management of information elements to motivate more payment decision.Originality/value:This paper is one of the few studies to apply HSM theory and fsQCA method with respect to the payment decision in paid Q&A.
