The burgeoning market for lithium-ion batteries has stimulated a growing need for more reliable battery performance monitoring. Accurate state-of-health(SOH) estimation is critical for ensuring battery operational per...The burgeoning market for lithium-ion batteries has stimulated a growing need for more reliable battery performance monitoring. Accurate state-of-health(SOH) estimation is critical for ensuring battery operational performance. Despite numerous data-driven methods reported in existing research for battery SOH estimation, these methods often exhibit inconsistent performance across different application scenarios. To address this issue and overcome the performance limitations of individual data-driven models,integrating multiple models for SOH estimation has received considerable attention. Ensemble learning(EL) typically leverages the strengths of multiple base models to achieve more robust and accurate outputs. However, the lack of a clear review of current research hinders the further development of ensemble methods in SOH estimation. Therefore, this paper comprehensively reviews multi-model ensemble learning methods for battery SOH estimation. First, existing ensemble methods are systematically categorized into 6 classes based on their combination strategies. Different realizations and underlying connections are meticulously analyzed for each category of EL methods, highlighting distinctions, innovations, and typical applications. Subsequently, these ensemble methods are comprehensively compared in terms of base models, combination strategies, and publication trends. Evaluations across 6 dimensions underscore the outstanding performance of stacking-based ensemble methods. Following this, these ensemble methods are further inspected from the perspectives of weighted ensemble and diversity, aiming to inspire potential approaches for enhancing ensemble performance. Moreover, addressing challenges such as base model selection, measuring model robustness and uncertainty, and interpretability of ensemble models in practical applications is emphasized. Finally, future research prospects are outlined, specifically noting that deep learning ensemble is poised to advance ensemble methods for battery SOH estimation. The convergence of advanced machine learning with ensemble learning is anticipated to yield valuable avenues for research. Accelerated research in ensemble learning holds promising prospects for achieving more accurate and reliable battery SOH estimation under real-world conditions.展开更多
Background:Stomach cancer(SC)is one of the most lethal malignancies worldwide due to late-stage diagnosis and limited treatment.The transcriptomic,epigenomic,and proteomic,etc.,omics datasets generated by high-through...Background:Stomach cancer(SC)is one of the most lethal malignancies worldwide due to late-stage diagnosis and limited treatment.The transcriptomic,epigenomic,and proteomic,etc.,omics datasets generated by high-throughput sequencing technology have become prominent in biomedical research,and they reveal molecular aspects of cancer diagnosis and therapy.Despite the development of advanced sequencing technology,the presence of high-dimensionality in multi-omics data makes it challenging to interpret the data.Methods:In this study,we introduce RankXLAN,an explainable ensemble-based multi-omics framework that integrates feature selection(FS),ensemble learning,bioinformatics,and in-silico validation for robust biomarker detection,potential therapeutic drug-repurposing candidates’identification,and classification of SC.To enhance the interpretability of the model,we incorporated explainable artificial intelligence(SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis),as well as accuracy,precision,F1-score,recall,cross-validation,specificity,likelihood ratio(LR)+,LR−,and Youden index results.Results:The experimental results showed that the top four FS algorithms achieved improved results when applied to the ensemble learning classification model.The proposed ensemble model produced an area under the curve(AUC)score of 0.994 for gene expression,0.97 for methylation,and 0.96 for miRNA expression data.Through the integration of bioinformatics and ML approach of the transcriptomic and epigenomic multi-omics dataset,we identified potential marker genes,namely,UBE2D2,HPCAL4,IGHA1,DPT,and FN3K.In-silico molecular docking revealed a strong binding affinity between ANKRD13C and the FDA-approved drug Everolimus(binding affinity−10.1 kcal/mol),identifying ANKRD13C as a potential therapeutic drug-repurposing target for SC.Conclusion:The proposed framework RankXLAN outperforms other existing frameworks for serum biomarker identification,therapeutic target identification,and SC classification with multi-omics datasets.展开更多
In this study,we conducted an experiment to construct multi-model ensemble(MME)predictions for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)using a neural network,based on hindcast data released from five coupled oceana...In this study,we conducted an experiment to construct multi-model ensemble(MME)predictions for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)using a neural network,based on hindcast data released from five coupled oceanatmosphere models,which exhibit varying levels of complexity.This nonlinear approach demonstrated extraordinary superiority and effectiveness in constructing ENSO MME.Subsequently,we employed the leave-one-out crossvalidation and the moving base methods to further validate the robustness of the neural network model in the formulation of ENSO MME.In conclusion,the neural network algorithm outperforms the conventional approach of assigning a uniform weight to all models.This is evidenced by an enhancement in correlation coefficients and reduction in prediction errors,which have the potential to provide a more accurate ENSO forecast.展开更多
With the rapid development of economy,air pollution caused by industrial expansion has caused serious harm to human health and social development.Therefore,establishing an effective air pollution concentration predict...With the rapid development of economy,air pollution caused by industrial expansion has caused serious harm to human health and social development.Therefore,establishing an effective air pollution concentration prediction system is of great scientific and practical significance for accurate and reliable predictions.This paper proposes a combination of pointinterval prediction system for pollutant concentration prediction by leveraging neural network,meta-heuristic optimization algorithm,and fuzzy theory.Fuzzy information granulation technology is used in data preprocessing to transform numerical sequences into fuzzy particles for comprehensive feature extraction.The golden Jackal optimization algorithm is employed in the optimization stage to fine-tune model hyperparameters.In the prediction stage,an ensemble learning method combines training results frommultiplemodels to obtain final point predictions while also utilizing quantile regression and kernel density estimation methods for interval predictions on the test set.Experimental results demonstrate that the combined model achieves a high goodness of fit coefficient of determination(R^(2))at 99.3% and a maximum difference between prediction accuracy mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)and benchmark model at 12.6%.This suggests that the integrated learning system proposed in this paper can provide more accurate deterministic predictions as well as reliable uncertainty analysis compared to traditionalmodels,offering practical reference for air quality early warning.展开更多
This study was aimed to prepare landslide susceptibility maps for the Pithoragarh district in Uttarakhand,India,using advanced ensemble models that combined Radial Basis Function Networks(RBFN)with three ensemble lear...This study was aimed to prepare landslide susceptibility maps for the Pithoragarh district in Uttarakhand,India,using advanced ensemble models that combined Radial Basis Function Networks(RBFN)with three ensemble learning techniques:DAGGING(DG),MULTIBOOST(MB),and ADABOOST(AB).This combination resulted in three distinct ensemble models:DG-RBFN,MB-RBFN,and AB-RBFN.Additionally,a traditional weighted method,Information Value(IV),and a benchmark machine learning(ML)model,Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network(MLP),were employed for comparison and validation.The models were developed using ten landslide conditioning factors,which included slope,aspect,elevation,curvature,land cover,geomorphology,overburden depth,lithology,distance to rivers and distance to roads.These factors were instrumental in predicting the output variable,which was the probability of landslide occurrence.Statistical analysis of the models’performance indicated that the DG-RBFN model,with an Area Under ROC Curve(AUC)of 0.931,outperformed the other models.The AB-RBFN model achieved an AUC of 0.929,the MB-RBFN model had an AUC of 0.913,and the MLP model recorded an AUC of 0.926.These results suggest that the advanced ensemble ML model DG-RBFN was more accurate than traditional statistical model,single MLP model,and other ensemble models in preparing trustworthy landslide susceptibility maps,thereby enhancing land use planning and decision-making.展开更多
The 21-yr ensemble predictions of model precipitation and circulation in the East Asian and western North Pacific （Asia-Pacific） summer monsoon region （0°-50°N, 100° 150°E） were evaluated in ni...The 21-yr ensemble predictions of model precipitation and circulation in the East Asian and western North Pacific （Asia-Pacific） summer monsoon region （0°-50°N, 100° 150°E） were evaluated in nine different AGCM, used in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center （APCC） multi-model ensemble seasonal prediction system. The analysis indicates that the precipitation anomaly patterns of model ensemble predictions are substantially different from the observed counterparts in this region, but the summer monsoon circulations are reasonably predicted. For example, all models can well produce the interannual variability of the western North Pacific monsoon index （WNPMI） defined by 850 hPa winds, but they failed to predict the relationship between WNPMI and precipitation anomalies. The interannual variability of the 500 hPa geopotential height （GPH） can be well predicted by the models in contrast to precipitation anomalies. On the basis of such model performances and the relationship between the interannual variations of 500 hPa GPH and precipitation anomalies, we developed a statistical scheme used to downscale the summer monsoon precipitation anomaly on the basis of EOF and singular value decomposition （SVD）. In this scheme, the three leading EOF modes of 500 hPa GPH anomaly fields predicted by the models are firstly corrected by the linear regression between the principal components in each model and observation, respectively. Then, the corrected model GPH is chosen as the predictor to downscale the precipitation anomaly field, which is assembled by the forecasted expansion coefficients of model 500 hPa GPH and the three leading SVD modes of observed precipitation anomaly corresponding to the prediction of model 500 hPa GPH during a 19-year training period. The cross-validated forecasts suggest that this downscaling scheme may have a potential to improve the forecast skill of the precipitation anomaly in the South China Sea, western North Pacific and the East Asia Pacific regions, where the anomaly correlation coefficient （ACC） has been improved by 0.14, corresponding to the reduced RMSE of 10.4% in the conventional multi-model ensemble （MME） forecast.展开更多
In order to reduce the uncertainty of offline land surface model （LSM） simulations of land evapotranspiration （ET）, we used ensemble simulations based on three meteorological forcing datasets [Princeton, ITPCAS （...In order to reduce the uncertainty of offline land surface model （LSM） simulations of land evapotranspiration （ET）, we used ensemble simulations based on three meteorological forcing datasets [Princeton, ITPCAS （Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences）, Qian] and four LSMs （BATS, VIC, CLM3.0 and CLM3.5）, to explore the trends and spatiotemporal characteristics of ET, as well as the spatiotemporal pattern of ET in response to climate factors over China's Mainland during 1982-2007. The results showed that various simulations of each member and their arithmetic mean （EnsAVlean） could capture the spatial distribution and seasonal pattern of ET sufficiently well, where they exhibited more significant spatial and seasonal variation in the ET compared with observation-based ET estimates （Obs_MTE）. For the mean annual ET, we found that the BATS forced by Princeton forcing overestimated the annual mean ET compared with Obs_MTE for most of the basins in China, whereas the VIC forced by Princeton forcing showed underestimations. By contrast, the Ens_Mean was closer to Obs_MTE, although the results were underestimated over Southeast China. Furthermore, both the Obs_MTE and Ens_Mean exhibited a significant increasing trend during 1982-98; whereas after 1998, when the last big EI Nifio event occurred, the Ens_Mean tended to decrease significantly between 1999 and 2007, although the change was not significant for Obs_MTE. Changes in air temperature and shortwave radiation played key roles in the long-term variation in ET over the humid area of China, but precipitation mainly controlled the long-term variation in ET in arid and semi-arid areas of China.展开更多
Seasonal prediction of summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley（YRV） is valuable for agricultural and industrial production and freshwater resource management in China, but remains a major challenge. Earlier mu...Seasonal prediction of summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley（YRV） is valuable for agricultural and industrial production and freshwater resource management in China, but remains a major challenge. Earlier multi-model ensemble（MME） prediction schemes for summer rainfall over China focus on single-value prediction, which cannot provide the necessary uncertainty information, while commonly-used ensemble schemes for probability density function（PDF） prediction are not adapted to YRV summer rainfall prediction. In the present study, an MME PDF prediction scheme is proposed based on the ENSEMBLES hindcasts. It is similar to the earlier Bayesian ensemble prediction scheme, but with optimization of ensemble members and a revision of the variance modeling of the likelihood function. The optimized ensemble members are regressed YRV summer rainfall with factors selected from model outputs of synchronous 500-h Pa geopotential height as predictors. The revised variance modeling of the likelihood function is a simple linear regression with ensemble spread as the predictor. The cross-validation skill of 1960–2002 YRV summer rainfall prediction shows that the new scheme produces a skillful PDF prediction, and is much better-calibrated, sharper, and more accurate than the earlier Bayesian ensemble and raw ensemble.展开更多
Objective To develop a non-invasive predictive model for coronary artery stenosis severity based on adaptive multi-modal integration of traditional Chinese and western medicine data.Methods Clinical indicators,echocar...Objective To develop a non-invasive predictive model for coronary artery stenosis severity based on adaptive multi-modal integration of traditional Chinese and western medicine data.Methods Clinical indicators,echocardiographic data,traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)tongue manifestations,and facial features were collected from patients who underwent coro-nary computed tomography angiography(CTA)in the Cardiac Care Unit(CCU)of Shanghai Tenth People's Hospital between May 1,2023 and May 1,2024.An adaptive weighted multi-modal data fusion(AWMDF)model based on deep learning was constructed to predict the severity of coronary artery stenosis.The model was evaluated using metrics including accura-cy,precision,recall,F1 score,and the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve(AUC).Further performance assessment was conducted through comparisons with six ensemble machine learning methods,data ablation,model component ablation,and various decision-level fusion strategies.Results A total of 158 patients were included in the study.The AWMDF model achieved ex-cellent predictive performance(AUC=0.973,accuracy=0.937,precision=0.937,recall=0.929,and F1 score=0.933).Compared with model ablation,data ablation experiments,and various traditional machine learning models,the AWMDF model demonstrated superior per-formance.Moreover,the adaptive weighting strategy outperformed alternative approaches,including simple weighting,averaging,voting,and fixed-weight schemes.Conclusion The AWMDF model demonstrates potential clinical value in the non-invasive prediction of coronary artery disease and could serve as a tool for clinical decision support.展开更多
This study investigates multi-model ensemble forecasts of track and intensity of tropical cyclones over the western Pacific, based on forecast outputs from the China Meteorological Administration, European Centre for ...This study investigates multi-model ensemble forecasts of track and intensity of tropical cyclones over the western Pacific, based on forecast outputs from the China Meteorological Administration, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Japan Meteorological Agency and National Centers for Environmental Prediction in the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble(TIGGE) datasets. The multi-model ensemble schemes, namely the bias-removed ensemble mean(BREM) and superensemble(SUP), are compared with the ensemble mean(EMN) and single-model forecasts. Moreover, a new model bias estimation scheme is investigated and applied to the BREM and SUP schemes. The results showed that, compared with single-model forecasts and EMN, the multi-model ensembles of the BREM and SUP schemes can have smaller errors in most cases. However, there were also circumstances where BREM was less skillful than EMN, indicating that using a time-averaged error as model bias is not optimal. A new model bias estimation scheme of the biweight mean is introduced. Through minimizing the negative influence of singular errors, this scheme can obtain a more accurate model bias estimation and improve the BREM forecast skill. The application of the biweight mean in the bias calculation of SUP also resulted in improved skill. The results indicate that the modification of multi-model ensemble schemes through this bias estimation method is feasible.展开更多
Deep learning algorithms have been rapidly incorporated into many different applications due to the increase in computational power and the availability of massive amounts of data.Recently,both deep learning and ensem...Deep learning algorithms have been rapidly incorporated into many different applications due to the increase in computational power and the availability of massive amounts of data.Recently,both deep learning and ensemble learning have been used to recognize underlying structures and patterns from high-level features to make predictions/decisions.With the growth in popularity of deep learning and ensemble learning algorithms,they have received significant attention from both scientists and the industrial community due to their superior ability to learn features from big data.Ensemble deep learning has exhibited significant performance in enhancing learning generalization through the use of multiple deep learning algorithms.Although ensemble deep learning has large quantities of training parameters,which results in time and space overheads,it performs much better than traditional ensemble learning.Ensemble deep learning has been successfully used in several areas,such as bioinformatics,finance,and health care.In this paper,we review and investigate recent ensemble deep learning algorithms and techniques in health care domains,medical imaging,health care data analytics,genomics,diagnosis,disease prevention,and drug discovery.We cover several widely used deep learning algorithms along with their architectures,including deep neural networks(DNNs),convolutional neural networks(CNNs),recurrent neural networks(RNNs),and generative adversarial networks(GANs).Common healthcare tasks,such as medical imaging,electronic health records,and genomics,are also demonstrated.Furthermore,in this review,the challenges inherent in reducing the burden on the healthcare system are discussed and explored.Finally,future directions and opportunities for enhancing healthcare model performance are discussed.展开更多
Traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)demonstrates distinctive advantages in disease prevention and treatment.However,analyzing its biological mechanisms through the modern medical research paradigm of“single drug,single ...Traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)demonstrates distinctive advantages in disease prevention and treatment.However,analyzing its biological mechanisms through the modern medical research paradigm of“single drug,single target”presents significant challenges due to its holistic approach.Network pharmacology and its core theory of network targets connect drugs and diseases from a holistic and systematic perspective based on biological networks,overcoming the limitations of reductionist research models and showing considerable value in TCM research.Recent integration of network target computational and experimental methods with artificial intelligence(AI)and multi-modal multi-omics technologies has substantially enhanced network pharmacology methodology.The advancement in computational and experimental techniques provides complementary support for network target theory in decoding TCM principles.This review,centered on network targets,examines the progress of network target methods combined with AI in predicting disease molecular mechanisms and drug-target relationships,alongside the application of multi-modal multi-omics technologies in analyzing TCM formulae,syndromes,and toxicity.Looking forward,network target theory is expected to incorporate emerging technologies while developing novel approaches aligned with its unique characteristics,potentially leading to significant breakthroughs in TCM research and advancing scientific understanding and innovation in TCM.展开更多
With the advent of the next-generation Air Traffic Control(ATC)system,there is growing interest in using Artificial Intelligence(AI)techniques to enhance Situation Awareness(SA)for ATC Controllers(ATCOs),i.e.,Intellig...With the advent of the next-generation Air Traffic Control(ATC)system,there is growing interest in using Artificial Intelligence(AI)techniques to enhance Situation Awareness(SA)for ATC Controllers(ATCOs),i.e.,Intelligent SA(ISA).However,the existing AI-based SA approaches often rely on unimodal data and lack a comprehensive description and benchmark of the ISA tasks utilizing multi-modal data for real-time ATC environments.To address this gap,by analyzing the situation awareness procedure of the ATCOs,the ISA task is refined to the processing of the two primary elements,i.e.,spoken instructions and flight trajectories.Subsequently,the ISA is further formulated into Controlling Intent Understanding(CIU)and Flight Trajectory Prediction(FTP)tasks.For the CIU task,an innovative automatic speech recognition and understanding framework is designed to extract the controlling intent from unstructured and continuous ATC communications.For the FTP task,the single-and multi-horizon FTP approaches are investigated to support the high-precision prediction of the situation evolution.A total of 32 unimodal/multi-modal advanced methods with extensive evaluation metrics are introduced to conduct the benchmarks on the real-world multi-modal ATC situation dataset.Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of AI-based techniques in enhancing ISA for the ATC environment.展开更多
Smart manufacturing and Industry 4.0 are transforming traditional manufacturing processes by utilizing innovative technologies such as the artificial intelligence(AI)and internet of things(IoT)to enhance efficiency,re...Smart manufacturing and Industry 4.0 are transforming traditional manufacturing processes by utilizing innovative technologies such as the artificial intelligence(AI)and internet of things(IoT)to enhance efficiency,reduce costs,and ensure product quality.In light of the recent advancement of Industry 4.0,identifying defects has become important for ensuring the quality of products during the manufacturing process.In this research,we present an ensemble methodology for accurately classifying hot rolled steel surface defects by combining the strengths of four pre-trained convolutional neural network(CNN)architectures:VGG16,VGG19,Xception,and Mobile-Net V2,compensating for their individual weaknesses.We evaluated our methodology on the Xsteel surface defect dataset(XSDD),which comprises seven different classes.The ensemble methodology integrated the predictions of individual models through two methods:model averaging and weighted averaging.Our evaluation showed that the model averaging ensemble achieved an accuracy of 98.89%,a recall of 98.92%,a precision of 99.05%,and an F1-score of 98.97%,while the weighted averaging ensemble reached an accuracy of 99.72%,a recall of 99.74%,a precision of 99.67%,and an F1-score of 99.70%.The proposed weighted averaging ensemble model outperformed the model averaging method and the individual models in detecting defects in terms of accuracy,recall,precision,and F1-score.Comparative analysis with recent studies also showed the superior performance of our methodology.展开更多
A personalized outfit recommendation has emerged as a hot research topic in the fashion domain.However,existing recommendations do not fully exploit user style preferences.Typically,users prefer particular styles such...A personalized outfit recommendation has emerged as a hot research topic in the fashion domain.However,existing recommendations do not fully exploit user style preferences.Typically,users prefer particular styles such as casual and athletic styles,and consider attributes like color and texture when selecting outfits.To achieve personalized outfit recommendations in line with user style preferences,this paper proposes a personal style guided outfit recommendation with multi-modal fashion compatibility modeling,termed as PSGNet.Firstly,a style classifier is designed to categorize fashion images of various clothing types and attributes into distinct style categories.Secondly,a personal style prediction module extracts user style preferences by analyzing historical data.Then,to address the limitations of single-modal representations and enhance fashion compatibility,both fashion images and text data are leveraged to extract multi-modal features.Finally,PSGNet integrates these components through Bayesian personalized ranking(BPR)to unify the personal style and fashion compatibility,where the former is used as personal style features and guides the output of the personalized outfit recommendation tailored to the target user.Extensive experiments on large-scale datasets demonstrate that the proposed model is efficient on the personalized outfit recommendation.展开更多
As batteries become increasingly essential for energy storage technologies,battery prognosis,and diagnosis remain central to ensure reliable operation and effective management,as well as to aid the in-depth investigat...As batteries become increasingly essential for energy storage technologies,battery prognosis,and diagnosis remain central to ensure reliable operation and effective management,as well as to aid the in-depth investigation of degradation mechanisms.However,dynamic operating conditions,cell-to-cell inconsistencies,and limited availability of labeled data have posed significant challenges to accurate and robust prognosis and diagnosis.Herein,we introduce a time-series-decomposition-based ensembled lightweight learning model(TELL-Me),which employs a synergistic dual-module framework to facilitate accurate and reliable forecasting.The feature module formulates features with physical implications and sheds light on battery aging mechanisms,while the gradient module monitors capacity degradation rates and captures aging trend.TELL-Me achieves high accuracy in end-of-life prediction using minimal historical data from a single battery without requiring offline training dataset,and demonstrates impressive generality and robustness across various operating conditions and battery types.Additionally,by correlating feature contributions with degradation mechanisms across different datasets,TELL-Me is endowed with the diagnostic ability that not only enhances prediction reliability but also provides critical insights into the design and optimization of next-generation batteries.展开更多
Dissolved oxygen(DO)is an important indicator of aquaculture,and its accurate forecasting can effectively improve the quality of aquatic products.In this paper,a new DO hybrid forecasting model is proposed that includ...Dissolved oxygen(DO)is an important indicator of aquaculture,and its accurate forecasting can effectively improve the quality of aquatic products.In this paper,a new DO hybrid forecasting model is proposed that includes three stages:multi-factor analysis,adaptive decomposition,and an optimizationbased ensemble.First,considering the complex factors affecting DO,the grey relational(GR)degree method is used to screen out the environmental factors most closely related to DO.The consideration of multiple factors makes model fusion more effective.Second,the series of DO,water temperature,salinity,and oxygen saturation are decomposed adaptively into sub-series by means of the empirical wavelet transform(EWT)method.Then,five benchmark models are utilized to forecast the sub-series of EWT decomposition.The ensemble weights of these five sub-forecasting models are calculated by particle swarm optimization and gravitational search algorithm(PSOGSA).Finally,a multi-factor ensemble model for DO is obtained by weighted allocation.The performance of the proposed model is verified by timeseries data collected by the pacific islands ocean observing system(PacIOOS)from the WQB04 station at Hilo.The evaluation indicators involved in the experiment include the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE),Kling–Gupta efficiency(KGE),mean absolute percent error(MAPE),standard deviation of error(SDE),and coefficient of determination(R^(2)).Example analysis demonstrates that:①The proposed model can obtain excellent DO forecasting results;②the proposed model is superior to other comparison models;and③the forecasting model can be used to analyze the trend of DO and enable managers to make better management decisions.展开更多
A Bayesian probabilistic prediction scheme of the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) summer rainfall is proposed to combine forecast information from multi-model ensemble dataset provided by ENSEMBLES project.Due to the low f...A Bayesian probabilistic prediction scheme of the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) summer rainfall is proposed to combine forecast information from multi-model ensemble dataset provided by ENSEMBLES project.Due to the low forecast skill of rainfall in dynamic models,the time series of regressed YRV summer rainfall are selected as ensemble members in the new scheme,instead of commonly-used YRV summer rainfall simulated by models.Each time series of regressed YRV summer rainfall is derived from a simple linear regression.The predictor in each simple linear regression is the skillfully simulated circulation or surface temperature factor which is highly linear with the observed YRV summer rainfall in the training set.The high correlation between the ensemble mean of these regressed YRV summer rainfall and observation benefit extracting more sample information from the ensemble system.The results show that the cross-validated skill of the new scheme over the period of 1960 to 2002 is much higher than equally-weighted ensemble,multiple linear regression,and Bayesian ensemble with simulated YRV summer rainfall as ensemble members.In addition,the new scheme is also more skillful than reference forecasts (random forecast at a 0.01 significance level for ensemble mean and climatology forecast for probability density function).展开更多
Flood susceptibility modeling is crucial for rapid flood forecasting, disaster reduction strategies, evacuation planning, and decision-making. Machine learning(ML) models have proven to be effective tools for assessin...Flood susceptibility modeling is crucial for rapid flood forecasting, disaster reduction strategies, evacuation planning, and decision-making. Machine learning(ML) models have proven to be effective tools for assessing flood susceptibility. However, most previous studies have focused on individual models or comparative performance, underscoring the unique strengths and weaknesses of each model. In this study, we propose a stacking ensemble learning algorithm that harnesses the strengths of a diverse range of machine learning models. The findings reveal the following:(1) The stacking ensemble learning, using RF-XGBCB-LR model, significantly enhances flood susceptibility simulation.(2) In addition to rainfall,key flood drivers in the study area include NDVI, and impervious surfaces. Over 40% of the study area, primarily in the northeast and southeast, exhibits high flood susceptibility, with higher risks for populations compared to cropland.(3) In the northeast of the study area,heavy precipitation, low terrain, and NDVI values are key indicators contributing to high flood susceptibility, while long-duration precipitation, mountainous topography, and upper reach vegetation are the main drivers in the southeast. This study underscores the effectiveness of ML, particularly ensemble learning, in flood modeling. It identifies vulnerable areas and contributes to improved flood risk management.展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (52075420)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (xzy022023049)National Key Research and Development Program of China (2023YFB3408600)。
文摘The burgeoning market for lithium-ion batteries has stimulated a growing need for more reliable battery performance monitoring. Accurate state-of-health(SOH) estimation is critical for ensuring battery operational performance. Despite numerous data-driven methods reported in existing research for battery SOH estimation, these methods often exhibit inconsistent performance across different application scenarios. To address this issue and overcome the performance limitations of individual data-driven models,integrating multiple models for SOH estimation has received considerable attention. Ensemble learning(EL) typically leverages the strengths of multiple base models to achieve more robust and accurate outputs. However, the lack of a clear review of current research hinders the further development of ensemble methods in SOH estimation. Therefore, this paper comprehensively reviews multi-model ensemble learning methods for battery SOH estimation. First, existing ensemble methods are systematically categorized into 6 classes based on their combination strategies. Different realizations and underlying connections are meticulously analyzed for each category of EL methods, highlighting distinctions, innovations, and typical applications. Subsequently, these ensemble methods are comprehensively compared in terms of base models, combination strategies, and publication trends. Evaluations across 6 dimensions underscore the outstanding performance of stacking-based ensemble methods. Following this, these ensemble methods are further inspected from the perspectives of weighted ensemble and diversity, aiming to inspire potential approaches for enhancing ensemble performance. Moreover, addressing challenges such as base model selection, measuring model robustness and uncertainty, and interpretability of ensemble models in practical applications is emphasized. Finally, future research prospects are outlined, specifically noting that deep learning ensemble is poised to advance ensemble methods for battery SOH estimation. The convergence of advanced machine learning with ensemble learning is anticipated to yield valuable avenues for research. Accelerated research in ensemble learning holds promising prospects for achieving more accurate and reliable battery SOH estimation under real-world conditions.
基金the Deanship of Research and Graduate Studies at King Khalid University,KSA,for funding this work through the Large Research Project under grant number RGP2/164/46.
文摘Background:Stomach cancer(SC)is one of the most lethal malignancies worldwide due to late-stage diagnosis and limited treatment.The transcriptomic,epigenomic,and proteomic,etc.,omics datasets generated by high-throughput sequencing technology have become prominent in biomedical research,and they reveal molecular aspects of cancer diagnosis and therapy.Despite the development of advanced sequencing technology,the presence of high-dimensionality in multi-omics data makes it challenging to interpret the data.Methods:In this study,we introduce RankXLAN,an explainable ensemble-based multi-omics framework that integrates feature selection(FS),ensemble learning,bioinformatics,and in-silico validation for robust biomarker detection,potential therapeutic drug-repurposing candidates’identification,and classification of SC.To enhance the interpretability of the model,we incorporated explainable artificial intelligence(SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis),as well as accuracy,precision,F1-score,recall,cross-validation,specificity,likelihood ratio(LR)+,LR−,and Youden index results.Results:The experimental results showed that the top four FS algorithms achieved improved results when applied to the ensemble learning classification model.The proposed ensemble model produced an area under the curve(AUC)score of 0.994 for gene expression,0.97 for methylation,and 0.96 for miRNA expression data.Through the integration of bioinformatics and ML approach of the transcriptomic and epigenomic multi-omics dataset,we identified potential marker genes,namely,UBE2D2,HPCAL4,IGHA1,DPT,and FN3K.In-silico molecular docking revealed a strong binding affinity between ANKRD13C and the FDA-approved drug Everolimus(binding affinity−10.1 kcal/mol),identifying ANKRD13C as a potential therapeutic drug-repurposing target for SC.Conclusion:The proposed framework RankXLAN outperforms other existing frameworks for serum biomarker identification,therapeutic target identification,and SC classification with multi-omics datasets.
基金The fund from Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)under contract No.SML2021SP310the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 42227901 and 42475061the Key R&D Program of Zhejiang Province under contract No.2024C03257.
文摘In this study,we conducted an experiment to construct multi-model ensemble(MME)predictions for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)using a neural network,based on hindcast data released from five coupled oceanatmosphere models,which exhibit varying levels of complexity.This nonlinear approach demonstrated extraordinary superiority and effectiveness in constructing ENSO MME.Subsequently,we employed the leave-one-out crossvalidation and the moving base methods to further validate the robustness of the neural network model in the formulation of ENSO MME.In conclusion,the neural network algorithm outperforms the conventional approach of assigning a uniform weight to all models.This is evidenced by an enhancement in correlation coefficients and reduction in prediction errors,which have the potential to provide a more accurate ENSO forecast.
基金supported by General Scientific Research Funding of the Science and Technology Development Fund(FDCT)in Macao(No.0150/2022/A)the Faculty Research Grants of Macao University of Science and Technology(No.FRG-22-074-FIE).
文摘With the rapid development of economy,air pollution caused by industrial expansion has caused serious harm to human health and social development.Therefore,establishing an effective air pollution concentration prediction system is of great scientific and practical significance for accurate and reliable predictions.This paper proposes a combination of pointinterval prediction system for pollutant concentration prediction by leveraging neural network,meta-heuristic optimization algorithm,and fuzzy theory.Fuzzy information granulation technology is used in data preprocessing to transform numerical sequences into fuzzy particles for comprehensive feature extraction.The golden Jackal optimization algorithm is employed in the optimization stage to fine-tune model hyperparameters.In the prediction stage,an ensemble learning method combines training results frommultiplemodels to obtain final point predictions while also utilizing quantile regression and kernel density estimation methods for interval predictions on the test set.Experimental results demonstrate that the combined model achieves a high goodness of fit coefficient of determination(R^(2))at 99.3% and a maximum difference between prediction accuracy mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)and benchmark model at 12.6%.This suggests that the integrated learning system proposed in this paper can provide more accurate deterministic predictions as well as reliable uncertainty analysis compared to traditionalmodels,offering practical reference for air quality early warning.
基金the University of Transport Technology under the project entitled“Application of Machine Learning Algorithms in Landslide Susceptibility Mapping in Mountainous Areas”with grant number DTTD2022-16.
文摘This study was aimed to prepare landslide susceptibility maps for the Pithoragarh district in Uttarakhand,India,using advanced ensemble models that combined Radial Basis Function Networks(RBFN)with three ensemble learning techniques:DAGGING(DG),MULTIBOOST(MB),and ADABOOST(AB).This combination resulted in three distinct ensemble models:DG-RBFN,MB-RBFN,and AB-RBFN.Additionally,a traditional weighted method,Information Value(IV),and a benchmark machine learning(ML)model,Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network(MLP),were employed for comparison and validation.The models were developed using ten landslide conditioning factors,which included slope,aspect,elevation,curvature,land cover,geomorphology,overburden depth,lithology,distance to rivers and distance to roads.These factors were instrumental in predicting the output variable,which was the probability of landslide occurrence.Statistical analysis of the models’performance indicated that the DG-RBFN model,with an Area Under ROC Curve(AUC)of 0.931,outperformed the other models.The AB-RBFN model achieved an AUC of 0.929,the MB-RBFN model had an AUC of 0.913,and the MLP model recorded an AUC of 0.926.These results suggest that the advanced ensemble ML model DG-RBFN was more accurate than traditional statistical model,single MLP model,and other ensemble models in preparing trustworthy landslide susceptibility maps,thereby enhancing land use planning and decision-making.
基金The National Nat-ural Science Foundation of China (NSFC), Grant Nos.90711003, 40375014the program of GYHY200706005, and the APCC Visiting Scientist Program jointly supportedthis work.
文摘The 21-yr ensemble predictions of model precipitation and circulation in the East Asian and western North Pacific （Asia-Pacific） summer monsoon region （0°-50°N, 100° 150°E） were evaluated in nine different AGCM, used in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center （APCC） multi-model ensemble seasonal prediction system. The analysis indicates that the precipitation anomaly patterns of model ensemble predictions are substantially different from the observed counterparts in this region, but the summer monsoon circulations are reasonably predicted. For example, all models can well produce the interannual variability of the western North Pacific monsoon index （WNPMI） defined by 850 hPa winds, but they failed to predict the relationship between WNPMI and precipitation anomalies. The interannual variability of the 500 hPa geopotential height （GPH） can be well predicted by the models in contrast to precipitation anomalies. On the basis of such model performances and the relationship between the interannual variations of 500 hPa GPH and precipitation anomalies, we developed a statistical scheme used to downscale the summer monsoon precipitation anomaly on the basis of EOF and singular value decomposition （SVD）. In this scheme, the three leading EOF modes of 500 hPa GPH anomaly fields predicted by the models are firstly corrected by the linear regression between the principal components in each model and observation, respectively. Then, the corrected model GPH is chosen as the predictor to downscale the precipitation anomaly field, which is assembled by the forecasted expansion coefficients of model 500 hPa GPH and the three leading SVD modes of observed precipitation anomaly corresponding to the prediction of model 500 hPa GPH during a 19-year training period. The cross-validated forecasts suggest that this downscaling scheme may have a potential to improve the forecast skill of the precipitation anomaly in the South China Sea, western North Pacific and the East Asia Pacific regions, where the anomaly correlation coefficient （ACC） has been improved by 0.14, corresponding to the reduced RMSE of 10.4% in the conventional multi-model ensemble （MME） forecast.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.4140508391437220 and 41305066)+1 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province(Grant No.2015JJ3098)the Fund Project for The Education Department of Hunan Province(Grant No.14C0897)
文摘In order to reduce the uncertainty of offline land surface model （LSM） simulations of land evapotranspiration （ET）, we used ensemble simulations based on three meteorological forcing datasets [Princeton, ITPCAS （Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences）, Qian] and four LSMs （BATS, VIC, CLM3.0 and CLM3.5）, to explore the trends and spatiotemporal characteristics of ET, as well as the spatiotemporal pattern of ET in response to climate factors over China's Mainland during 1982-2007. The results showed that various simulations of each member and their arithmetic mean （EnsAVlean） could capture the spatial distribution and seasonal pattern of ET sufficiently well, where they exhibited more significant spatial and seasonal variation in the ET compared with observation-based ET estimates （Obs_MTE）. For the mean annual ET, we found that the BATS forced by Princeton forcing overestimated the annual mean ET compared with Obs_MTE for most of the basins in China, whereas the VIC forced by Princeton forcing showed underestimations. By contrast, the Ens_Mean was closer to Obs_MTE, although the results were underestimated over Southeast China. Furthermore, both the Obs_MTE and Ens_Mean exhibited a significant increasing trend during 1982-98; whereas after 1998, when the last big EI Nifio event occurred, the Ens_Mean tended to decrease significantly between 1999 and 2007, although the change was not significant for Obs_MTE. Changes in air temperature and shortwave radiation played key roles in the long-term variation in ET over the humid area of China, but precipitation mainly controlled the long-term variation in ET in arid and semi-arid areas of China.
基金co-supported by the National Natural Science Foundation (Grant Nos. 41005052 and 41375086)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA05110201)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2010CB950403)
文摘Seasonal prediction of summer rainfall over the Yangtze River valley（YRV） is valuable for agricultural and industrial production and freshwater resource management in China, but remains a major challenge. Earlier multi-model ensemble（MME） prediction schemes for summer rainfall over China focus on single-value prediction, which cannot provide the necessary uncertainty information, while commonly-used ensemble schemes for probability density function（PDF） prediction are not adapted to YRV summer rainfall prediction. In the present study, an MME PDF prediction scheme is proposed based on the ENSEMBLES hindcasts. It is similar to the earlier Bayesian ensemble prediction scheme, but with optimization of ensemble members and a revision of the variance modeling of the likelihood function. The optimized ensemble members are regressed YRV summer rainfall with factors selected from model outputs of synchronous 500-h Pa geopotential height as predictors. The revised variance modeling of the likelihood function is a simple linear regression with ensemble spread as the predictor. The cross-validation skill of 1960–2002 YRV summer rainfall prediction shows that the new scheme produces a skillful PDF prediction, and is much better-calibrated, sharper, and more accurate than the earlier Bayesian ensemble and raw ensemble.
基金Construction Program of the Key Discipline of State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine of China(ZYYZDXK-2023069)Research Project of Shanghai Municipal Health Commission (2024QN018)Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine Science and Technology Development Program (23KFL005)。
文摘Objective To develop a non-invasive predictive model for coronary artery stenosis severity based on adaptive multi-modal integration of traditional Chinese and western medicine data.Methods Clinical indicators,echocardiographic data,traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)tongue manifestations,and facial features were collected from patients who underwent coro-nary computed tomography angiography(CTA)in the Cardiac Care Unit(CCU)of Shanghai Tenth People's Hospital between May 1,2023 and May 1,2024.An adaptive weighted multi-modal data fusion(AWMDF)model based on deep learning was constructed to predict the severity of coronary artery stenosis.The model was evaluated using metrics including accura-cy,precision,recall,F1 score,and the area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve(AUC).Further performance assessment was conducted through comparisons with six ensemble machine learning methods,data ablation,model component ablation,and various decision-level fusion strategies.Results A total of 158 patients were included in the study.The AWMDF model achieved ex-cellent predictive performance(AUC=0.973,accuracy=0.937,precision=0.937,recall=0.929,and F1 score=0.933).Compared with model ablation,data ablation experiments,and various traditional machine learning models,the AWMDF model demonstrated superior per-formance.Moreover,the adaptive weighting strategy outperformed alternative approaches,including simple weighting,averaging,voting,and fixed-weight schemes.Conclusion The AWMDF model demonstrates potential clinical value in the non-invasive prediction of coronary artery disease and could serve as a tool for clinical decision support.
基金Special Research Program for Public Welfare(Meteorology)of China(GYHY200906009,GYHY201006015,GYHY200906007)National Natural Science Foundation of China(4107503541475044)
文摘This study investigates multi-model ensemble forecasts of track and intensity of tropical cyclones over the western Pacific, based on forecast outputs from the China Meteorological Administration, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Japan Meteorological Agency and National Centers for Environmental Prediction in the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble(TIGGE) datasets. The multi-model ensemble schemes, namely the bias-removed ensemble mean(BREM) and superensemble(SUP), are compared with the ensemble mean(EMN) and single-model forecasts. Moreover, a new model bias estimation scheme is investigated and applied to the BREM and SUP schemes. The results showed that, compared with single-model forecasts and EMN, the multi-model ensembles of the BREM and SUP schemes can have smaller errors in most cases. However, there were also circumstances where BREM was less skillful than EMN, indicating that using a time-averaged error as model bias is not optimal. A new model bias estimation scheme of the biweight mean is introduced. Through minimizing the negative influence of singular errors, this scheme can obtain a more accurate model bias estimation and improve the BREM forecast skill. The application of the biweight mean in the bias calculation of SUP also resulted in improved skill. The results indicate that the modification of multi-model ensemble schemes through this bias estimation method is feasible.
基金funded by Taif University,Saudi Arabia,project No.(TU-DSPP-2024-263).
文摘Deep learning algorithms have been rapidly incorporated into many different applications due to the increase in computational power and the availability of massive amounts of data.Recently,both deep learning and ensemble learning have been used to recognize underlying structures and patterns from high-level features to make predictions/decisions.With the growth in popularity of deep learning and ensemble learning algorithms,they have received significant attention from both scientists and the industrial community due to their superior ability to learn features from big data.Ensemble deep learning has exhibited significant performance in enhancing learning generalization through the use of multiple deep learning algorithms.Although ensemble deep learning has large quantities of training parameters,which results in time and space overheads,it performs much better than traditional ensemble learning.Ensemble deep learning has been successfully used in several areas,such as bioinformatics,finance,and health care.In this paper,we review and investigate recent ensemble deep learning algorithms and techniques in health care domains,medical imaging,health care data analytics,genomics,diagnosis,disease prevention,and drug discovery.We cover several widely used deep learning algorithms along with their architectures,including deep neural networks(DNNs),convolutional neural networks(CNNs),recurrent neural networks(RNNs),and generative adversarial networks(GANs).Common healthcare tasks,such as medical imaging,electronic health records,and genomics,are also demonstrated.Furthermore,in this review,the challenges inherent in reducing the burden on the healthcare system are discussed and explored.Finally,future directions and opportunities for enhancing healthcare model performance are discussed.
文摘Traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)demonstrates distinctive advantages in disease prevention and treatment.However,analyzing its biological mechanisms through the modern medical research paradigm of“single drug,single target”presents significant challenges due to its holistic approach.Network pharmacology and its core theory of network targets connect drugs and diseases from a holistic and systematic perspective based on biological networks,overcoming the limitations of reductionist research models and showing considerable value in TCM research.Recent integration of network target computational and experimental methods with artificial intelligence(AI)and multi-modal multi-omics technologies has substantially enhanced network pharmacology methodology.The advancement in computational and experimental techniques provides complementary support for network target theory in decoding TCM principles.This review,centered on network targets,examines the progress of network target methods combined with AI in predicting disease molecular mechanisms and drug-target relationships,alongside the application of multi-modal multi-omics technologies in analyzing TCM formulae,syndromes,and toxicity.Looking forward,network target theory is expected to incorporate emerging technologies while developing novel approaches aligned with its unique characteristics,potentially leading to significant breakthroughs in TCM research and advancing scientific understanding and innovation in TCM.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.62371323,62401380,U2433217,U2333209,and U20A20161)Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan Province,China(Nos.2025ZNSFSC1476)+2 种基金Sichuan Science and Technology Program,China(Nos.2024YFG0010 and 2024ZDZX0046)the Institutional Research Fund from Sichuan University(Nos.2024SCUQJTX030)the Open Fund of Key Laboratory of Flight Techniques and Flight Safety,CAAC(Nos.GY2024-01A).
文摘With the advent of the next-generation Air Traffic Control(ATC)system,there is growing interest in using Artificial Intelligence(AI)techniques to enhance Situation Awareness(SA)for ATC Controllers(ATCOs),i.e.,Intelligent SA(ISA).However,the existing AI-based SA approaches often rely on unimodal data and lack a comprehensive description and benchmark of the ISA tasks utilizing multi-modal data for real-time ATC environments.To address this gap,by analyzing the situation awareness procedure of the ATCOs,the ISA task is refined to the processing of the two primary elements,i.e.,spoken instructions and flight trajectories.Subsequently,the ISA is further formulated into Controlling Intent Understanding(CIU)and Flight Trajectory Prediction(FTP)tasks.For the CIU task,an innovative automatic speech recognition and understanding framework is designed to extract the controlling intent from unstructured and continuous ATC communications.For the FTP task,the single-and multi-horizon FTP approaches are investigated to support the high-precision prediction of the situation evolution.A total of 32 unimodal/multi-modal advanced methods with extensive evaluation metrics are introduced to conduct the benchmarks on the real-world multi-modal ATC situation dataset.Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of AI-based techniques in enhancing ISA for the ATC environment.
基金supported by the Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF)funded by the Ministry of Education(NRF-2022R1I1A3063493).
文摘Smart manufacturing and Industry 4.0 are transforming traditional manufacturing processes by utilizing innovative technologies such as the artificial intelligence(AI)and internet of things(IoT)to enhance efficiency,reduce costs,and ensure product quality.In light of the recent advancement of Industry 4.0,identifying defects has become important for ensuring the quality of products during the manufacturing process.In this research,we present an ensemble methodology for accurately classifying hot rolled steel surface defects by combining the strengths of four pre-trained convolutional neural network(CNN)architectures:VGG16,VGG19,Xception,and Mobile-Net V2,compensating for their individual weaknesses.We evaluated our methodology on the Xsteel surface defect dataset(XSDD),which comprises seven different classes.The ensemble methodology integrated the predictions of individual models through two methods:model averaging and weighted averaging.Our evaluation showed that the model averaging ensemble achieved an accuracy of 98.89%,a recall of 98.92%,a precision of 99.05%,and an F1-score of 98.97%,while the weighted averaging ensemble reached an accuracy of 99.72%,a recall of 99.74%,a precision of 99.67%,and an F1-score of 99.70%.The proposed weighted averaging ensemble model outperformed the model averaging method and the individual models in detecting defects in terms of accuracy,recall,precision,and F1-score.Comparative analysis with recent studies also showed the superior performance of our methodology.
基金Shanghai Frontier Science Research Center for Modern Textiles,Donghua University,ChinaOpen Project of Henan Key Laboratory of Intelligent Manufacturing of Mechanical Equipment,Zhengzhou University of Light Industry,China(No.IM202303)National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2019YFB1706300)。
文摘A personalized outfit recommendation has emerged as a hot research topic in the fashion domain.However,existing recommendations do not fully exploit user style preferences.Typically,users prefer particular styles such as casual and athletic styles,and consider attributes like color and texture when selecting outfits.To achieve personalized outfit recommendations in line with user style preferences,this paper proposes a personal style guided outfit recommendation with multi-modal fashion compatibility modeling,termed as PSGNet.Firstly,a style classifier is designed to categorize fashion images of various clothing types and attributes into distinct style categories.Secondly,a personal style prediction module extracts user style preferences by analyzing historical data.Then,to address the limitations of single-modal representations and enhance fashion compatibility,both fashion images and text data are leveraged to extract multi-modal features.Finally,PSGNet integrates these components through Bayesian personalized ranking(BPR)to unify the personal style and fashion compatibility,where the former is used as personal style features and guides the output of the personalized outfit recommendation tailored to the target user.Extensive experiments on large-scale datasets demonstrate that the proposed model is efficient on the personalized outfit recommendation.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(22379021 and 22479021)。
文摘As batteries become increasingly essential for energy storage technologies,battery prognosis,and diagnosis remain central to ensure reliable operation and effective management,as well as to aid the in-depth investigation of degradation mechanisms.However,dynamic operating conditions,cell-to-cell inconsistencies,and limited availability of labeled data have posed significant challenges to accurate and robust prognosis and diagnosis.Herein,we introduce a time-series-decomposition-based ensembled lightweight learning model(TELL-Me),which employs a synergistic dual-module framework to facilitate accurate and reliable forecasting.The feature module formulates features with physical implications and sheds light on battery aging mechanisms,while the gradient module monitors capacity degradation rates and captures aging trend.TELL-Me achieves high accuracy in end-of-life prediction using minimal historical data from a single battery without requiring offline training dataset,and demonstrates impressive generality and robustness across various operating conditions and battery types.Additionally,by correlating feature contributions with degradation mechanisms across different datasets,TELL-Me is endowed with the diagnostic ability that not only enhances prediction reliability but also provides critical insights into the design and optimization of next-generation batteries.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61873283)the Changsha Science&Technology Project(KQ1707017)the innovation-driven project of the Central South University(2019CX005).
文摘Dissolved oxygen(DO)is an important indicator of aquaculture,and its accurate forecasting can effectively improve the quality of aquatic products.In this paper,a new DO hybrid forecasting model is proposed that includes three stages:multi-factor analysis,adaptive decomposition,and an optimizationbased ensemble.First,considering the complex factors affecting DO,the grey relational(GR)degree method is used to screen out the environmental factors most closely related to DO.The consideration of multiple factors makes model fusion more effective.Second,the series of DO,water temperature,salinity,and oxygen saturation are decomposed adaptively into sub-series by means of the empirical wavelet transform(EWT)method.Then,five benchmark models are utilized to forecast the sub-series of EWT decomposition.The ensemble weights of these five sub-forecasting models are calculated by particle swarm optimization and gravitational search algorithm(PSOGSA).Finally,a multi-factor ensemble model for DO is obtained by weighted allocation.The performance of the proposed model is verified by timeseries data collected by the pacific islands ocean observing system(PacIOOS)from the WQB04 station at Hilo.The evaluation indicators involved in the experiment include the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE),Kling–Gupta efficiency(KGE),mean absolute percent error(MAPE),standard deviation of error(SDE),and coefficient of determination(R^(2)).Example analysis demonstrates that:①The proposed model can obtain excellent DO forecasting results;②the proposed model is superior to other comparison models;and③the forecasting model can be used to analyze the trend of DO and enable managers to make better management decisions.
基金supported by the Knowledge Innovation Key Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) under Grant No.KZCX2-YW-217Doctor Research Startup Project at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,the CAS under Grant No.7-098300
文摘A Bayesian probabilistic prediction scheme of the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) summer rainfall is proposed to combine forecast information from multi-model ensemble dataset provided by ENSEMBLES project.Due to the low forecast skill of rainfall in dynamic models,the time series of regressed YRV summer rainfall are selected as ensemble members in the new scheme,instead of commonly-used YRV summer rainfall simulated by models.Each time series of regressed YRV summer rainfall is derived from a simple linear regression.The predictor in each simple linear regression is the skillfully simulated circulation or surface temperature factor which is highly linear with the observed YRV summer rainfall in the training set.The high correlation between the ensemble mean of these regressed YRV summer rainfall and observation benefit extracting more sample information from the ensemble system.The results show that the cross-validated skill of the new scheme over the period of 1960 to 2002 is much higher than equally-weighted ensemble,multiple linear regression,and Bayesian ensemble with simulated YRV summer rainfall as ensemble members.In addition,the new scheme is also more skillful than reference forecasts (random forecast at a 0.01 significance level for ensemble mean and climatology forecast for probability density function).
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42271037Key Research and Development Program Project of Anhui Province,No.2022m07020011+1 种基金The University Synergy Innovation Program of Anhui Province,No.GXXT-2021-048Science Foundation for Excellent Young Scholars of Anhui,No.2108085Y13。
文摘Flood susceptibility modeling is crucial for rapid flood forecasting, disaster reduction strategies, evacuation planning, and decision-making. Machine learning(ML) models have proven to be effective tools for assessing flood susceptibility. However, most previous studies have focused on individual models or comparative performance, underscoring the unique strengths and weaknesses of each model. In this study, we propose a stacking ensemble learning algorithm that harnesses the strengths of a diverse range of machine learning models. The findings reveal the following:(1) The stacking ensemble learning, using RF-XGBCB-LR model, significantly enhances flood susceptibility simulation.(2) In addition to rainfall,key flood drivers in the study area include NDVI, and impervious surfaces. Over 40% of the study area, primarily in the northeast and southeast, exhibits high flood susceptibility, with higher risks for populations compared to cropland.(3) In the northeast of the study area,heavy precipitation, low terrain, and NDVI values are key indicators contributing to high flood susceptibility, while long-duration precipitation, mountainous topography, and upper reach vegetation are the main drivers in the southeast. This study underscores the effectiveness of ML, particularly ensemble learning, in flood modeling. It identifies vulnerable areas and contributes to improved flood risk management.
