Background Cotton is one of the most important commercial crops after food crops,especially in countries like India,where it’s grown extensively under rainfed conditions.Because of its usage in multiple industries,su...Background Cotton is one of the most important commercial crops after food crops,especially in countries like India,where it’s grown extensively under rainfed conditions.Because of its usage in multiple industries,such as textile,medicine,and automobile industries,it has greater commercial importance.The crop’s performance is greatly influenced by prevailing weather dynamics.As climate changes,assessing how weather changes affect crop performance is essential.Among various techniques that are available,crop models are the most effective and widely used tools for predicting yields.Results This study compares statistical and machine learning models to assess their ability to predict cotton yield across major producing districts of Karnataka,India,utilizing a long-term dataset spanning from 1990 to 2023 that includes yield and weather factors.The artificial neural networks(ANNs)performed superiorly with acceptable yield deviations ranging within±10%during both vegetative stage(F1)and mid stage(F2)for cotton.The model evaluation metrics such as root mean square error(RMSE),normalized root mean square error(nRMSE),and modelling efficiency(EF)were also within the acceptance limits in most districts.Furthermore,the tested ANN model was used to assess the importance of the dominant weather factors influencing crop yield in each district.Specifically,the use of morning relative humidity as an individual parameter and its interaction with maximum and minimum tempera-ture had a major influence on cotton yield in most of the yield predicted districts.These differences highlighted the differential interactions of weather factors in each district for cotton yield formation,highlighting individual response of each weather factor under different soils and management conditions over the major cotton growing districts of Karnataka.Conclusions Compared with statistical models,machine learning models such as ANNs proved higher efficiency in forecasting the cotton yield due to their ability to consider the interactive effects of weather factors on yield forma-tion at different growth stages.This highlights the best suitability of ANNs for yield forecasting in rainfed conditions and for the study on relative impacts of weather factors on yield.Thus,the study aims to provide valuable insights to support stakeholders in planning effective crop management strategies and formulating relevant policies.展开更多
Numerical models are crucial for quantifying the ocean-atmosphere interactions associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)phenomenon in the tropical Pacific.Current coupled models often exhibit signifi...Numerical models are crucial for quantifying the ocean-atmosphere interactions associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)phenomenon in the tropical Pacific.Current coupled models often exhibit significant biases and inter-model differences in simulating ENSO,underscoring the need for alternative modeling approaches.The Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS)is a sophisticated ocean model widely used for regional studies and has been coupled with various atmospheric models.However,its application in simulating ENSO processes on a basin scale in the tropical Pacific has not been explored.For the first time,this study presents the development of a basin-scale hybrid coupled model(HCM)for the tropical Pacific,integrating ROMS with a statistical atmospheric model that captures the interannual relationships between sea surface temperature(SST)and wind stress anomalies.The HCM is evaluated for its capability to simulate the annual mean,seasonal,and interannual variations of the oceanic state in the tropical Pacific.Results demonstrate that the model effectively reproduces the ENSO cycle,with a dominant oscillation period of approximately two years.The ROMS-based HCM developed here offers an efficient and robust tool for investigating climate variability in the tropical Pacific.展开更多
Accurate assessment of coal brittleness is crucial in the design of coal seam drilling and underground coal mining operations.This study proposes a method for evaluating the brittleness of gas-bearing coal based on a ...Accurate assessment of coal brittleness is crucial in the design of coal seam drilling and underground coal mining operations.This study proposes a method for evaluating the brittleness of gas-bearing coal based on a statistical damage constitutive model and energy evolution mechanisms.Initially,integrating the principle of effective stress and the Hoek-Brown criterion,a statistical damage constitutive model for gas-bearing coal is established and validated through triaxial compression tests under different gas pressures to verify its accuracy and applicability.Subsequently,employing energy evolution mechanism,two energy characteristic parameters(elastic energy proportion and dissipated energy proportion)are analyzed.Based on the damage stress thresholds,the damage evolution characteristics of gas bearing coal were explored.Finally,by integrating energy characteristic parameters with damage parameters,a novel brittleness index is proposed.The results demonstrate that the theoretical curves derived from the statistical damage constitutive model closely align with the test curves,accurately reflecting the stress−strain characteristics of gas-bearing coal and revealing the stress drop and softening characteristics of coal in the post-peak stage.The shape parameter and scale parameter represent the brittleness and macroscopic strength of the coal,respectively.As gas pressure increases from 1 to 5 MPa,the shape parameter and the scale parameter decrease by 22.18%and 60.45%,respectively,indicating a reduction in both brittleness and strength of the coal.Parameters such as maximum damage rate and peak elastic energy storage limit positively correlate with coal brittleness.The brittleness index effectively captures the brittleness characteristics and reveals a decrease in brittleness and an increase in sensitivity to plastic deformation under higher gas pressure conditions.展开更多
This study presents an innovative development of the exponentially weighted moving average(EWMA)control chart,explicitly adapted for the examination of time series data distinguished by seasonal autoregressive moving ...This study presents an innovative development of the exponentially weighted moving average(EWMA)control chart,explicitly adapted for the examination of time series data distinguished by seasonal autoregressive moving average behavior—SARMA(1,1)L under exponential white noise.Unlike previous works that rely on simplified models such as AR(1)or assume independence,this research derives for the first time an exact two-sided Average Run Length(ARL)formula for theModified EWMAchart under SARMA(1,1)L conditions,using a mathematically rigorous Fredholm integral approach.The derived formulas are validated against numerical integral equation(NIE)solutions,showing strong agreement and significantly reduced computational burden.Additionally,a performance comparison index(PCI)is introduced to assess the chart’s detection capability.Results demonstrate that the proposed method exhibits superior sensitivity to mean shifts in autocorrelated environments,outperforming existing approaches.The findings offer a new,efficient framework for real-time quality control in complex seasonal processes,with potential applications in environmental monitoring and intelligent manufacturing systems.展开更多
Coral reef limestone(CRL)constitutes a distinctive marine carbonate formation with complex mechanical properties.This study investigates the multiscale damage and fracture mechanisms of CRL through integrated experime...Coral reef limestone(CRL)constitutes a distinctive marine carbonate formation with complex mechanical properties.This study investigates the multiscale damage and fracture mechanisms of CRL through integrated experimental testing,digital core technology,and theoretical modelling.Two CRL types with contrasting mesostructures were characterized across three scales.Macroscopically,CRL-I and CRL-II exhibited mean compressive strengths of 8.46 and 5.17 MPa,respectively.Mesoscopically,CRL-I featured small-scale highly interconnected pores,whilst CRL-II developed larger stratified pores with diminished connectivity.Microscopically,both CRL matrices demonstrated remarkable similarity in mineral composition and mechanical properties.A novel voxel average-based digital core scaling methodology was developed to facilitate numerical simulation of cross-scale damage processes,revealing network-progressive failure in CRL-I versus directional-brittle failure in CRL-II.Furthermore,a damage statistical constitutive model based on digital core technology and mesoscopic homogenisation theory established quantitative relationships between microelement strength distribution and macroscopic mechanical behavior.These findings illuminate the fundamental mechanisms through which mesoscopic structure governs the macroscopic mechanical properties of CRL.展开更多
As a key node of modern transportation network,the informationization management of road tunnels is crucial to ensure the operation safety and traffic efficiency.However,the existing tunnel vehicle modeling methods ge...As a key node of modern transportation network,the informationization management of road tunnels is crucial to ensure the operation safety and traffic efficiency.However,the existing tunnel vehicle modeling methods generally have problems such as insufficient 3D scene description capability and low dynamic update efficiency,which are difficult to meet the demand of real-time accurate management.For this reason,this paper proposes a vehicle twin modeling method for road tunnels.This approach starts from the actual management needs,and supports multi-level dynamic modeling from vehicle type,size to color by constructing a vehicle model library that can be flexibly invoked;at the same time,semantic constraint rules with geometric layout,behavioral attributes,and spatial relationships are designed to ensure that the virtual model matches with the real model with a high degree of similarity;ultimately,the prototype system is constructed and the case region is selected for the case study,and the dynamic vehicle status in the tunnel is realized by integrating real-time monitoring data with semantic constraints for precise virtual-real mapping.Finally,the prototype system is constructed and case experiments are conducted in selected case areas,which are combined with real-time monitoring data to realize dynamic updating and three-dimensional visualization of vehicle states in tunnels.The experiments show that the proposed method can run smoothly with an average rendering efficiency of 17.70 ms while guaranteeing the modeling accuracy(composite similarity of 0.867),which significantly improves the real-time and intuitive tunnel management.The research results provide reliable technical support for intelligent operation and emergency response of road tunnels,and offer new ideas for digital twin modeling of complex scenes.展开更多
The treatment and disposal of radioactive waste are presently facing great challenges.Spent ion exchange resins have become a focus of attention due to their high production and serious environmental risks.In this pap...The treatment and disposal of radioactive waste are presently facing great challenges.Spent ion exchange resins have become a focus of attention due to their high production and serious environmental risks.In this paper,a simplified model of cationic exchange resin is proposed,and the degradation processes of cationic resin monomer initiated by hydroxyl radicals(·OH)are clarified by combining statistical molecular fragmentation(SMF)model and density functional theory(DFT)calculations.The prediction of active sites indicates that the S-O bonds and the C-S bond of the sulfonic group are more likely to react during the degradation.The meta-position of the sulfonic group on the benzene ring is the most active site,and the benzene ring without the sulfonic group has a certain reactivity.The C11-C14 and C17-C20 bonds,on the carbon skeleton,are the most easily broken.It is also found that dihydroxy addition and elimination reactions play a major role in the process of desulfonation,carbon skeleton cleavage and benzene ring separation.The decomposition mechanisms found through the combination of physical models and chemical calculations,provide theoretical guidance for the treatment of complex polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.展开更多
In this study,the gradients of Total Electron Content(TEC)for a midlatitude region are estimated and grouped with respect to the distance between neighboring stations,time periods within a day,and satellite directions...In this study,the gradients of Total Electron Content(TEC)for a midlatitude region are estimated and grouped with respect to the distance between neighboring stations,time periods within a day,and satellite directions.Annual medians of these gradients for quiet days are computed as templates.The metric distances(L2N)and Symmetric Kullback-Leibler Distances(SKLD)are obtained between the templates and the daily gradient series.The grouped histograms are fitted to the prospective Probability Density Functions(PDF).The method is applied to the Slant Total Electron Content(STEC)estimates from the Turkish National Permanent GPS Network(TNPGN-Active)for 2015.The highest gradients are observed in the east-west axis with a maximum of 25 mm/km during a geomagnetic storm.The maximum differences from the gradient templates occur for neighboring stations within100-130 km distance away from each other,during night hours,and for regions bordering the Black Sea and the Mediterranean in the northeast and southeast of Turkey.The empirical PDFs of the stationpair gradients are predominantly Weibull-distributed.The mean values of Weibull PDFs in all station groups are between 1.2 and 1.8 mm/km,with an increase during noon and afternoon hours.The standard deviations of the gradient PDFs generally increase during night hours.The algorithm will form a basis for quantifying the stochastic variations of the spatial rate of change of TEC trends in midlatitude regions,thus supplementing reliable and accurate regional monitoring of ionospheric variability.展开更多
The present study aims to establish a relationship between serum AMH levels and age in a large group of women living in Bulgaria, as well as to establish reference age-specific AMH levels in women that would serve as ...The present study aims to establish a relationship between serum AMH levels and age in a large group of women living in Bulgaria, as well as to establish reference age-specific AMH levels in women that would serve as an initial estimate of ovarian age. A total of 28,016 women on the territory of the Republic of Bulgaria were tested for serum AMH levels with a median age of 37.0 years (interquartile range 32.0 to 41.0). For women aged 20 - 29 years, the Bulgarian population has relatively high median levels of AMH, similar to women of Asian origin. For women aged 30 - 34 years, our results are comparable to those of women living in Western Europe. For women aged 35 - 39 years, our results are comparable to those of women living in the territory of India and Kenya. For women aged 40 - 44 years, our results were lower than those for women from the Western European and Chinese populations, close to the Indian and higher than Korean and Kenya populations, respectively. Our results for women of Bulgarian origin are also comparable to US Latina women at age 30, 35 and 40 ages. On the base on constructed a statistical model to predicting the decline in AMH levels at different ages, we found non-linear structure of AMH decline for the low AMH 3.5) the dependence of the decline of AMH on age was confirmed as linear. In conclusion, we evaluated the serum level of AMH in Bulgarian women and established age-specific AMH percentile reference values based on a large representative sample. We have developed a prognostic statistical model that can facilitate the application of AMH in clinical practice and the prediction of reproductive capacity and population health.展开更多
In this work, four empirical models of statistical thickness, namely the models of Harkins and Jura, Hasley, Carbon Black and Jaroniec, were compared in order to determine the textural properties (external surface and...In this work, four empirical models of statistical thickness, namely the models of Harkins and Jura, Hasley, Carbon Black and Jaroniec, were compared in order to determine the textural properties (external surface and surface of micropores) of a clay concrete without molasses and clay concretes stabilized with 8%, 12% and 16% molasses. The results obtained show that Hasley’s model can be used to obtain the external surfaces. However, it does not allow the surface of the micropores to be obtained, and is not suitable for the case of simple clay concrete (without molasses) and for clay concretes stabilized with molasses. The Carbon Black, Jaroniec and Harkins and Jura models can be used for clay concrete and stabilized clay concrete. However, the Carbon Black model is the most relevant for clay concrete and the Harkins and Jura model is for molasses-stabilized clay concrete. These last two models augur well for future research.展开更多
Damage statistical mechanics model of horizontal section height in the top caving was constructed in the paper. The influence factors including supporting pressure, dip angle and characteristic of coal on horizontal s...Damage statistical mechanics model of horizontal section height in the top caving was constructed in the paper. The influence factors including supporting pressure, dip angle and characteristic of coal on horizontal section height were analyzed as well. By terms of the practice project analysis, the horizontal section height increases with the increase of dip angle β and thickness of coal seam M. Dip angle of coal seam β has tremendous impact on horizontal section height, while thickness of coal seam M has slight impact. When thickness of coal seam is below 10m, horizontal section height increases sharply. While thickness exceeds 15m, it is not major factor influencing on horizontal section height any long.展开更多
Statistical expression of vapour pressure equations of metals is derived from the Debye model.The statistical distribution of T_(-p) ensemble is presented in an in-elab- orate mode and the partition function is define...Statistical expression of vapour pressure equations of metals is derived from the Debye model.The statistical distribution of T_(-p) ensemble is presented in an in-elab- orate mode and the partition function is defined.The vapour pressure of eleven metals have been calculated with the Debye equation and compared with those given by the E- instein equation and empirical equation.Comparison of results of calculation from dif- ferent methods show their evident accordance within the same orders of magnitude.展开更多
The wireless communication systems based on Unmanned Aerial Vehicles(UAVs) have found a wide range of applications recently. In this paper, we propose a new three-dimensional(3 D) non-stationary multiple-input multipl...The wireless communication systems based on Unmanned Aerial Vehicles(UAVs) have found a wide range of applications recently. In this paper, we propose a new three-dimensional(3 D) non-stationary multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO) channel model for the communication links between the UAV and mobile terminal(MT). The new model originates the traditional geometry-based stochastic models(GBSMs) but considers the non-stationary propagation environment due to the rapid movements of the UAV, MT, and clusters. Meanwhile, the upgrade time evolving algorithms of time-variant channel parameters, i.e., the path number based on birth-death processes of clusters, path delays, path powers, and angles of arrival and departure, are developed and optimized. In addition, the statistical properties of proposed GBSM including autocorrelation function(ACF), cross-correlation function(CCF), and Doppler power spectrum density(DPSD) are investigated and analyzed. Simulation results demonstrate that our proposed model provides a good agreement on the statistical properties with the corresponding derived theoretical ones, which indicates its usefulness for the performance evaluation and validation of the UAV based communication systems.展开更多
Landslide susceptibility mapping is vital for landslide risk management and urban planning.In this study,we used three statistical models[frequency ratio,certainty factor and index of entropy(IOE)]and a machine learni...Landslide susceptibility mapping is vital for landslide risk management and urban planning.In this study,we used three statistical models[frequency ratio,certainty factor and index of entropy(IOE)]and a machine learning model[random forest(RF)]for landslide susceptibility mapping in Wanzhou County,China.First,a landslide inventory map was prepared using earlier geotechnical investigation reports,aerial images,and field surveys.Then,the redundant factors were excluded from the initial fourteen landslide causal factors via factor correlation analysis.To determine the most effective causal factors,landslide susceptibility evaluations were performed based on four cases with different combinations of factors("cases").In the analysis,465(70%)landslide locations were randomly selected for model training,and 200(30%)landslide locations were selected for verification.The results showed that case 3 produced the best performance for the statistical models and that case 2 produced the best performance for the RF model.Finally,the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used to verify the accuracy of each model's results for its respective optimal case.The ROC curve analysis showed that the machine learning model performed better than the other three models,and among the three statistical models,the IOE model with weight coefficients was superior.展开更多
Statistical models using historical data on crop yields and weather to calibrate rela- tively simple regression equations have been widely and extensively applied in previous studies, and have provided a common altern...Statistical models using historical data on crop yields and weather to calibrate rela- tively simple regression equations have been widely and extensively applied in previous studies, and have provided a common alternative to process-based models, which require extensive input data on cultivar, management, and soil conditions. However, very few studies had been conducted to review systematically the previous statistical models for indentifying climate contributions to crop yields. This paper introduces three main statistical methods, i.e., time-series model, cross-section model and panel model, which have been used to identify such issues in the field of agrometeorology. Generally, research spatial scale could be categorized into two types using statistical models, including site scale and regional scale （e.g. global scale, national scale, provincial scale and county scale）. Four issues exist in identifying response sensitivity of crop yields to climate change by statistical models. The issues include the extent of spatial and temporal scale, non-climatic trend removal, colinearity existing in climate variables and non-consideration of adaptations. Respective resolutions for the above four issues have been put forward in the section of perspective on the future of statistical models finally.展开更多
Despite dedicated effort for many decades,statistical description of highly technologically important wall turbulence remains a great challenge.Current models are unfortunately incomplete,or empirical,or qualitative.A...Despite dedicated effort for many decades,statistical description of highly technologically important wall turbulence remains a great challenge.Current models are unfortunately incomplete,or empirical,or qualitative.After a review of the existing theories of wall turbulence,we present a new framework,called the structure ensemble dynamics （SED）,which aims at integrating the turbulence dynamics into a quantitative description of the mean flow.The SED theory naturally evolves from a statistical physics understanding of non-equilibrium open systems,such as fluid turbulence, for which mean quantities are intimately coupled with the fluctuation dynamics.Starting from the ensemble-averaged Navier-Stokes（EANS） equations,the theory postulates the existence of a finite number of statistical states yielding a multi-layer picture for wall turbulence.Then,it uses order functions（ratios of terms in the mean momentum as well as energy equations） to characterize the states and transitions between states.Application of the SED analysis to an incompressible channel flow and a compressible turbulent boundary layer shows that the order functions successfully reveal the multi-layer structure for wall-bounded turbulence, which arises as a quantitative extension of the traditional view in terms of sub-layer,buffer layer,log layer and wake. Furthermore,an idea of using a set of hyperbolic functions for modeling transitions between layers is proposed for a quantitative model of order functions across the entire flow domain.We conclude that the SED provides a theoretical framework for expressing the yet-unknown effects of fluctuation structures on the mean quantities,and offers new methods to analyze experimental and simulation data.Combined with asymptotic analysis,it also offers a way to evaluate convergence of simulations.The SED approach successfully describes the dynamics at both momentum and energy levels, in contrast with all prevalent approaches describing the mean velocity profile only.Moreover,the SED theoretical framework is general,independent of the flow system to study, while the actual functional form of the order functions may vary from flow to flow.We assert that as the knowledge of order functions is accumulated and as more flows are analyzed, new principles（such as hierarchy,symmetry,group invariance,etc.） governing the role of turbulent structures in the mean flow properties will be clarified and a viable theory of turbulence might emerge.展开更多
Land degradation causes serious environmental problems in many regions of the world, and although it can be effectively assessed and monitored using a time series of rainfall and a normalized difference vegetation ind...Land degradation causes serious environmental problems in many regions of the world, and although it can be effectively assessed and monitored using a time series of rainfall and a normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） from remotely-sensed imagery, dividing human-induced land degradation from vegetation dynamics due to climate change is not a trivial task. This paper presented a multilevel statistical modeling of the NDVI-rainfall relationship to detect human-induced land degradation at local and landscape scales in the Ordos Plateau of Inner Mongolia, China, and recognized that anthropogenic activities result in either positive （land restoration and re-vegetation） or negative （degradation） trends. Linear regressions were used to assess the accuracy of the multi- level statistical model. The results show that： （1） land restoration was the dominant process in the Ordos Plateau between 1998 and 2012; （2） the effect of the statistical removal of precipitation revealed areas of human-induced land degradation and improvement, the latter reflecting successful restoration projects and changes in land man- agement in many parts of the Ordos; （3） compared to a simple linear regression, multilevel statistical modeling could be used to analyze the relationship between the NDVI and rainfall and improve the accuracy of detecting the effect of human activities. Additional factors should be included when analyzing the NDVI-rainfall relationship and detecting human-induced loss of vegetation cover in drylands to improve the accuracy of the approach and elimi- nate some observed non-significant residual trends.展开更多
A current statistical model for maneuvering acceleration using an adaptive extended Kalman filter（CS-MAEKF） algorithm is proposed to solve problems existing in conventional extended Kalman filters such as large esti...A current statistical model for maneuvering acceleration using an adaptive extended Kalman filter（CS-MAEKF） algorithm is proposed to solve problems existing in conventional extended Kalman filters such as large estimation error and divergent tendencies in the presence of continuous maneuvering acceleration. A membership function is introduced in this algorithm to adaptively modify the upper and lower limits of loitering vehicles＇ maneuvering acceleration and for realtime adjustment of maneuvering acceleration variance. This allows the algorithm to have superior static and dynamic performance for loitering vehicles undergoing different maneuvers. Digital simulations and dynamic flight testing show that the yaw angle accuracy of the algorithm is 30% better than conventional algorithms, and pitch and roll angle calculation precision is improved by 60%.The mean square deviation of heading and attitude angle error during dynamic flight is less than3.05°. Experimental results show that CS-MAEKF meets the application requirements of miniature loitering vehicles.展开更多
Current statistical model(CSM) has a good performance in maneuvering target tracking. However, the fixed maneuvering frequency will deteriorate the tracking results, such as a serious dynamic delay, a slowly convergin...Current statistical model(CSM) has a good performance in maneuvering target tracking. However, the fixed maneuvering frequency will deteriorate the tracking results, such as a serious dynamic delay, a slowly converging speedy and a limited precision when using Kalman filter(KF) algorithm. In this study, a new current statistical model and a new Kalman filter are proposed to improve the performance of maneuvering target tracking. The new model which employs innovation dominated subjection function to adaptively adjust maneuvering frequency has a better performance in step maneuvering target tracking, while a fluctuant phenomenon appears. As far as this problem is concerned, a new adaptive fading Kalman filter is proposed as well. In the new Kalman filter, the prediction values are amended in time by setting judgment and amendment rules,so that tracking precision and fluctuant phenomenon of the new current statistical model are improved. The results of simulation indicate the effectiveness of the new algorithm and the practical guiding significance.展开更多
基金funded through India Meteorological Department,New Delhi,India under the Forecasting Agricultural output using Space,Agrometeorol ogy and Land based observations(FASAL)project and fund number:No.ASC/FASAL/KT-11/01/HQ-2010.
文摘Background Cotton is one of the most important commercial crops after food crops,especially in countries like India,where it’s grown extensively under rainfed conditions.Because of its usage in multiple industries,such as textile,medicine,and automobile industries,it has greater commercial importance.The crop’s performance is greatly influenced by prevailing weather dynamics.As climate changes,assessing how weather changes affect crop performance is essential.Among various techniques that are available,crop models are the most effective and widely used tools for predicting yields.Results This study compares statistical and machine learning models to assess their ability to predict cotton yield across major producing districts of Karnataka,India,utilizing a long-term dataset spanning from 1990 to 2023 that includes yield and weather factors.The artificial neural networks(ANNs)performed superiorly with acceptable yield deviations ranging within±10%during both vegetative stage(F1)and mid stage(F2)for cotton.The model evaluation metrics such as root mean square error(RMSE),normalized root mean square error(nRMSE),and modelling efficiency(EF)were also within the acceptance limits in most districts.Furthermore,the tested ANN model was used to assess the importance of the dominant weather factors influencing crop yield in each district.Specifically,the use of morning relative humidity as an individual parameter and its interaction with maximum and minimum tempera-ture had a major influence on cotton yield in most of the yield predicted districts.These differences highlighted the differential interactions of weather factors in each district for cotton yield formation,highlighting individual response of each weather factor under different soils and management conditions over the major cotton growing districts of Karnataka.Conclusions Compared with statistical models,machine learning models such as ANNs proved higher efficiency in forecasting the cotton yield due to their ability to consider the interactive effects of weather factors on yield forma-tion at different growth stages.This highlights the best suitability of ANNs for yield forecasting in rainfed conditions and for the study on relative impacts of weather factors on yield.Thus,the study aims to provide valuable insights to support stakeholders in planning effective crop management strategies and formulating relevant policies.
基金Supported by the Laoshan Laboratory(No.LSKJ 202202404)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XDB 42000000)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(No.42030410)the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST,and the Jiangsu Innovation Research Group(No.JSSCTD 202346)。
文摘Numerical models are crucial for quantifying the ocean-atmosphere interactions associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)phenomenon in the tropical Pacific.Current coupled models often exhibit significant biases and inter-model differences in simulating ENSO,underscoring the need for alternative modeling approaches.The Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS)is a sophisticated ocean model widely used for regional studies and has been coupled with various atmospheric models.However,its application in simulating ENSO processes on a basin scale in the tropical Pacific has not been explored.For the first time,this study presents the development of a basin-scale hybrid coupled model(HCM)for the tropical Pacific,integrating ROMS with a statistical atmospheric model that captures the interannual relationships between sea surface temperature(SST)and wind stress anomalies.The HCM is evaluated for its capability to simulate the annual mean,seasonal,and interannual variations of the oceanic state in the tropical Pacific.Results demonstrate that the model effectively reproduces the ENSO cycle,with a dominant oscillation period of approximately two years.The ROMS-based HCM developed here offers an efficient and robust tool for investigating climate variability in the tropical Pacific.
基金Project(52274096)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(WS2023A03)supported by the State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base for Gas Geology and Gas Control,China。
文摘Accurate assessment of coal brittleness is crucial in the design of coal seam drilling and underground coal mining operations.This study proposes a method for evaluating the brittleness of gas-bearing coal based on a statistical damage constitutive model and energy evolution mechanisms.Initially,integrating the principle of effective stress and the Hoek-Brown criterion,a statistical damage constitutive model for gas-bearing coal is established and validated through triaxial compression tests under different gas pressures to verify its accuracy and applicability.Subsequently,employing energy evolution mechanism,two energy characteristic parameters(elastic energy proportion and dissipated energy proportion)are analyzed.Based on the damage stress thresholds,the damage evolution characteristics of gas bearing coal were explored.Finally,by integrating energy characteristic parameters with damage parameters,a novel brittleness index is proposed.The results demonstrate that the theoretical curves derived from the statistical damage constitutive model closely align with the test curves,accurately reflecting the stress−strain characteristics of gas-bearing coal and revealing the stress drop and softening characteristics of coal in the post-peak stage.The shape parameter and scale parameter represent the brittleness and macroscopic strength of the coal,respectively.As gas pressure increases from 1 to 5 MPa,the shape parameter and the scale parameter decrease by 22.18%and 60.45%,respectively,indicating a reduction in both brittleness and strength of the coal.Parameters such as maximum damage rate and peak elastic energy storage limit positively correlate with coal brittleness.The brittleness index effectively captures the brittleness characteristics and reveals a decrease in brittleness and an increase in sensitivity to plastic deformation under higher gas pressure conditions.
基金financially by the National Research Council of Thailand(NRCT)under Contract No.N42A670894.
文摘This study presents an innovative development of the exponentially weighted moving average(EWMA)control chart,explicitly adapted for the examination of time series data distinguished by seasonal autoregressive moving average behavior—SARMA(1,1)L under exponential white noise.Unlike previous works that rely on simplified models such as AR(1)or assume independence,this research derives for the first time an exact two-sided Average Run Length(ARL)formula for theModified EWMAchart under SARMA(1,1)L conditions,using a mathematically rigorous Fredholm integral approach.The derived formulas are validated against numerical integral equation(NIE)solutions,showing strong agreement and significantly reduced computational burden.Additionally,a performance comparison index(PCI)is introduced to assess the chart’s detection capability.Results demonstrate that the proposed method exhibits superior sensitivity to mean shifts in autocorrelated environments,outperforming existing approaches.The findings offer a new,efficient framework for real-time quality control in complex seasonal processes,with potential applications in environmental monitoring and intelligent manufacturing systems.
基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2021YFC3100800)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42407235 and 42271026)the Project of Sanya Yazhou Bay Science and Technology City(No.SCKJ-JYRC-2023-54).
文摘Coral reef limestone(CRL)constitutes a distinctive marine carbonate formation with complex mechanical properties.This study investigates the multiscale damage and fracture mechanisms of CRL through integrated experimental testing,digital core technology,and theoretical modelling.Two CRL types with contrasting mesostructures were characterized across three scales.Macroscopically,CRL-I and CRL-II exhibited mean compressive strengths of 8.46 and 5.17 MPa,respectively.Mesoscopically,CRL-I featured small-scale highly interconnected pores,whilst CRL-II developed larger stratified pores with diminished connectivity.Microscopically,both CRL matrices demonstrated remarkable similarity in mineral composition and mechanical properties.A novel voxel average-based digital core scaling methodology was developed to facilitate numerical simulation of cross-scale damage processes,revealing network-progressive failure in CRL-I versus directional-brittle failure in CRL-II.Furthermore,a damage statistical constitutive model based on digital core technology and mesoscopic homogenisation theory established quantitative relationships between microelement strength distribution and macroscopic mechanical behavior.These findings illuminate the fundamental mechanisms through which mesoscopic structure governs the macroscopic mechanical properties of CRL.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42301473,42271424,42171397)Chinese Postdoctoral Innovation Talents Support Program(No.BX20230299)+2 种基金China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2023M742884)Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan Province(Nos.24NSFSC2264,2025ZNSFSC0322)Key Research and Development Project of Sichuan Province(No.24ZDYF0633).
文摘As a key node of modern transportation network,the informationization management of road tunnels is crucial to ensure the operation safety and traffic efficiency.However,the existing tunnel vehicle modeling methods generally have problems such as insufficient 3D scene description capability and low dynamic update efficiency,which are difficult to meet the demand of real-time accurate management.For this reason,this paper proposes a vehicle twin modeling method for road tunnels.This approach starts from the actual management needs,and supports multi-level dynamic modeling from vehicle type,size to color by constructing a vehicle model library that can be flexibly invoked;at the same time,semantic constraint rules with geometric layout,behavioral attributes,and spatial relationships are designed to ensure that the virtual model matches with the real model with a high degree of similarity;ultimately,the prototype system is constructed and the case region is selected for the case study,and the dynamic vehicle status in the tunnel is realized by integrating real-time monitoring data with semantic constraints for precise virtual-real mapping.Finally,the prototype system is constructed and case experiments are conducted in selected case areas,which are combined with real-time monitoring data to realize dynamic updating and three-dimensional visualization of vehicle states in tunnels.The experiments show that the proposed method can run smoothly with an average rendering efficiency of 17.70 ms while guaranteeing the modeling accuracy(composite similarity of 0.867),which significantly improves the real-time and intuitive tunnel management.The research results provide reliable technical support for intelligent operation and emergency response of road tunnels,and offer new ideas for digital twin modeling of complex scenes.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.22176067).
文摘The treatment and disposal of radioactive waste are presently facing great challenges.Spent ion exchange resins have become a focus of attention due to their high production and serious environmental risks.In this paper,a simplified model of cationic exchange resin is proposed,and the degradation processes of cationic resin monomer initiated by hydroxyl radicals(·OH)are clarified by combining statistical molecular fragmentation(SMF)model and density functional theory(DFT)calculations.The prediction of active sites indicates that the S-O bonds and the C-S bond of the sulfonic group are more likely to react during the degradation.The meta-position of the sulfonic group on the benzene ring is the most active site,and the benzene ring without the sulfonic group has a certain reactivity.The C11-C14 and C17-C20 bonds,on the carbon skeleton,are the most easily broken.It is also found that dihydroxy addition and elimination reactions play a major role in the process of desulfonation,carbon skeleton cleavage and benzene ring separation.The decomposition mechanisms found through the combination of physical models and chemical calculations,provide theoretical guidance for the treatment of complex polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.
基金supported by TUBITAK 112E568,114E092,and 115E915 projectsTNPGN-Active RINEX data set is available to the IONOLAB group for the TUBITAK 109E055 project。
文摘In this study,the gradients of Total Electron Content(TEC)for a midlatitude region are estimated and grouped with respect to the distance between neighboring stations,time periods within a day,and satellite directions.Annual medians of these gradients for quiet days are computed as templates.The metric distances(L2N)and Symmetric Kullback-Leibler Distances(SKLD)are obtained between the templates and the daily gradient series.The grouped histograms are fitted to the prospective Probability Density Functions(PDF).The method is applied to the Slant Total Electron Content(STEC)estimates from the Turkish National Permanent GPS Network(TNPGN-Active)for 2015.The highest gradients are observed in the east-west axis with a maximum of 25 mm/km during a geomagnetic storm.The maximum differences from the gradient templates occur for neighboring stations within100-130 km distance away from each other,during night hours,and for regions bordering the Black Sea and the Mediterranean in the northeast and southeast of Turkey.The empirical PDFs of the stationpair gradients are predominantly Weibull-distributed.The mean values of Weibull PDFs in all station groups are between 1.2 and 1.8 mm/km,with an increase during noon and afternoon hours.The standard deviations of the gradient PDFs generally increase during night hours.The algorithm will form a basis for quantifying the stochastic variations of the spatial rate of change of TEC trends in midlatitude regions,thus supplementing reliable and accurate regional monitoring of ionospheric variability.
文摘The present study aims to establish a relationship between serum AMH levels and age in a large group of women living in Bulgaria, as well as to establish reference age-specific AMH levels in women that would serve as an initial estimate of ovarian age. A total of 28,016 women on the territory of the Republic of Bulgaria were tested for serum AMH levels with a median age of 37.0 years (interquartile range 32.0 to 41.0). For women aged 20 - 29 years, the Bulgarian population has relatively high median levels of AMH, similar to women of Asian origin. For women aged 30 - 34 years, our results are comparable to those of women living in Western Europe. For women aged 35 - 39 years, our results are comparable to those of women living in the territory of India and Kenya. For women aged 40 - 44 years, our results were lower than those for women from the Western European and Chinese populations, close to the Indian and higher than Korean and Kenya populations, respectively. Our results for women of Bulgarian origin are also comparable to US Latina women at age 30, 35 and 40 ages. On the base on constructed a statistical model to predicting the decline in AMH levels at different ages, we found non-linear structure of AMH decline for the low AMH 3.5) the dependence of the decline of AMH on age was confirmed as linear. In conclusion, we evaluated the serum level of AMH in Bulgarian women and established age-specific AMH percentile reference values based on a large representative sample. We have developed a prognostic statistical model that can facilitate the application of AMH in clinical practice and the prediction of reproductive capacity and population health.
文摘In this work, four empirical models of statistical thickness, namely the models of Harkins and Jura, Hasley, Carbon Black and Jaroniec, were compared in order to determine the textural properties (external surface and surface of micropores) of a clay concrete without molasses and clay concretes stabilized with 8%, 12% and 16% molasses. The results obtained show that Hasley’s model can be used to obtain the external surfaces. However, it does not allow the surface of the micropores to be obtained, and is not suitable for the case of simple clay concrete (without molasses) and for clay concretes stabilized with molasses. The Carbon Black, Jaroniec and Harkins and Jura models can be used for clay concrete and stabilized clay concrete. However, the Carbon Black model is the most relevant for clay concrete and the Harkins and Jura model is for molasses-stabilized clay concrete. These last two models augur well for future research.
基金This work was financially supported by the National Natural Science fund of China (No.50274058).
文摘Damage statistical mechanics model of horizontal section height in the top caving was constructed in the paper. The influence factors including supporting pressure, dip angle and characteristic of coal on horizontal section height were analyzed as well. By terms of the practice project analysis, the horizontal section height increases with the increase of dip angle β and thickness of coal seam M. Dip angle of coal seam β has tremendous impact on horizontal section height, while thickness of coal seam M has slight impact. When thickness of coal seam is below 10m, horizontal section height increases sharply. While thickness exceeds 15m, it is not major factor influencing on horizontal section height any long.
文摘Statistical expression of vapour pressure equations of metals is derived from the Debye model.The statistical distribution of T_(-p) ensemble is presented in an in-elab- orate mode and the partition function is defined.The vapour pressure of eleven metals have been calculated with the Debye equation and compared with those given by the E- instein equation and empirical equation.Comparison of results of calculation from dif- ferent methods show their evident accordance within the same orders of magnitude.
基金supported by the National Key Scientific Instrument and Equipment Development Project(Grant No.2013YQ200607)China NSF Grants(Grant No.61631020)+1 种基金Aeronautical Science Foundation of China(Grant No.2017ZC52021)Open Foundation for Graduate Innovation of NUAA(Grant No.kfjj20170405 and kfjj20180408)
文摘The wireless communication systems based on Unmanned Aerial Vehicles(UAVs) have found a wide range of applications recently. In this paper, we propose a new three-dimensional(3 D) non-stationary multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO) channel model for the communication links between the UAV and mobile terminal(MT). The new model originates the traditional geometry-based stochastic models(GBSMs) but considers the non-stationary propagation environment due to the rapid movements of the UAV, MT, and clusters. Meanwhile, the upgrade time evolving algorithms of time-variant channel parameters, i.e., the path number based on birth-death processes of clusters, path delays, path powers, and angles of arrival and departure, are developed and optimized. In addition, the statistical properties of proposed GBSM including autocorrelation function(ACF), cross-correlation function(CCF), and Doppler power spectrum density(DPSD) are investigated and analyzed. Simulation results demonstrate that our proposed model provides a good agreement on the statistical properties with the corresponding derived theoretical ones, which indicates its usefulness for the performance evaluation and validation of the UAV based communication systems.
基金the projects ‘‘The risk assessment of geological hazards induced by reservoir water level fluctuation in Chongqing, Three-Gorges Reservoir, China.’’ (No. 2016065135)‘‘The study of mechanism and forecast criterion of the gentle-dip landslides in The Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China’’ (No. 41572292) funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Landslide susceptibility mapping is vital for landslide risk management and urban planning.In this study,we used three statistical models[frequency ratio,certainty factor and index of entropy(IOE)]and a machine learning model[random forest(RF)]for landslide susceptibility mapping in Wanzhou County,China.First,a landslide inventory map was prepared using earlier geotechnical investigation reports,aerial images,and field surveys.Then,the redundant factors were excluded from the initial fourteen landslide causal factors via factor correlation analysis.To determine the most effective causal factors,landslide susceptibility evaluations were performed based on four cases with different combinations of factors("cases").In the analysis,465(70%)landslide locations were randomly selected for model training,and 200(30%)landslide locations were selected for verification.The results showed that case 3 produced the best performance for the statistical models and that case 2 produced the best performance for the RF model.Finally,the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used to verify the accuracy of each model's results for its respective optimal case.The ROC curve analysis showed that the machine learning model performed better than the other three models,and among the three statistical models,the IOE model with weight coefficients was superior.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41001057 The Science and Technology Strategic Pilot of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.XDA05090308+1 种基金 No.XDA05090310 Project Supported by State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, No.2011-KF-06
文摘Statistical models using historical data on crop yields and weather to calibrate rela- tively simple regression equations have been widely and extensively applied in previous studies, and have provided a common alternative to process-based models, which require extensive input data on cultivar, management, and soil conditions. However, very few studies had been conducted to review systematically the previous statistical models for indentifying climate contributions to crop yields. This paper introduces three main statistical methods, i.e., time-series model, cross-section model and panel model, which have been used to identify such issues in the field of agrometeorology. Generally, research spatial scale could be categorized into two types using statistical models, including site scale and regional scale （e.g. global scale, national scale, provincial scale and county scale）. Four issues exist in identifying response sensitivity of crop yields to climate change by statistical models. The issues include the extent of spatial and temporal scale, non-climatic trend removal, colinearity existing in climate variables and non-consideration of adaptations. Respective resolutions for the above four issues have been put forward in the section of perspective on the future of statistical models finally.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(90716008)the National Basic Research Program of China(2009CB724100).
文摘Despite dedicated effort for many decades,statistical description of highly technologically important wall turbulence remains a great challenge.Current models are unfortunately incomplete,or empirical,or qualitative.After a review of the existing theories of wall turbulence,we present a new framework,called the structure ensemble dynamics （SED）,which aims at integrating the turbulence dynamics into a quantitative description of the mean flow.The SED theory naturally evolves from a statistical physics understanding of non-equilibrium open systems,such as fluid turbulence, for which mean quantities are intimately coupled with the fluctuation dynamics.Starting from the ensemble-averaged Navier-Stokes（EANS） equations,the theory postulates the existence of a finite number of statistical states yielding a multi-layer picture for wall turbulence.Then,it uses order functions（ratios of terms in the mean momentum as well as energy equations） to characterize the states and transitions between states.Application of the SED analysis to an incompressible channel flow and a compressible turbulent boundary layer shows that the order functions successfully reveal the multi-layer structure for wall-bounded turbulence, which arises as a quantitative extension of the traditional view in terms of sub-layer,buffer layer,log layer and wake. Furthermore,an idea of using a set of hyperbolic functions for modeling transitions between layers is proposed for a quantitative model of order functions across the entire flow domain.We conclude that the SED provides a theoretical framework for expressing the yet-unknown effects of fluctuation structures on the mean quantities,and offers new methods to analyze experimental and simulation data.Combined with asymptotic analysis,it also offers a way to evaluate convergence of simulations.The SED approach successfully describes the dynamics at both momentum and energy levels, in contrast with all prevalent approaches describing the mean velocity profile only.Moreover,the SED theoretical framework is general,independent of the flow system to study, while the actual functional form of the order functions may vary from flow to flow.We assert that as the knowledge of order functions is accumulated and as more flows are analyzed, new principles（such as hierarchy,symmetry,group invariance,etc.） governing the role of turbulent structures in the mean flow properties will be clarified and a viable theory of turbulence might emerge.
基金National Basic Research Program of China (2012CB722201)National Natural Science Foundation of China (30970504, 31060320)National Science and Technology Support Program (2011BAC07B01)
文摘Land degradation causes serious environmental problems in many regions of the world, and although it can be effectively assessed and monitored using a time series of rainfall and a normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） from remotely-sensed imagery, dividing human-induced land degradation from vegetation dynamics due to climate change is not a trivial task. This paper presented a multilevel statistical modeling of the NDVI-rainfall relationship to detect human-induced land degradation at local and landscape scales in the Ordos Plateau of Inner Mongolia, China, and recognized that anthropogenic activities result in either positive （land restoration and re-vegetation） or negative （degradation） trends. Linear regressions were used to assess the accuracy of the multi- level statistical model. The results show that： （1） land restoration was the dominant process in the Ordos Plateau between 1998 and 2012; （2） the effect of the statistical removal of precipitation revealed areas of human-induced land degradation and improvement, the latter reflecting successful restoration projects and changes in land man- agement in many parts of the Ordos; （3） compared to a simple linear regression, multilevel statistical modeling could be used to analyze the relationship between the NDVI and rainfall and improve the accuracy of detecting the effect of human activities. Additional factors should be included when analyzing the NDVI-rainfall relationship and detecting human-induced loss of vegetation cover in drylands to improve the accuracy of the approach and elimi- nate some observed non-significant residual trends.
文摘A current statistical model for maneuvering acceleration using an adaptive extended Kalman filter（CS-MAEKF） algorithm is proposed to solve problems existing in conventional extended Kalman filters such as large estimation error and divergent tendencies in the presence of continuous maneuvering acceleration. A membership function is introduced in this algorithm to adaptively modify the upper and lower limits of loitering vehicles＇ maneuvering acceleration and for realtime adjustment of maneuvering acceleration variance. This allows the algorithm to have superior static and dynamic performance for loitering vehicles undergoing different maneuvers. Digital simulations and dynamic flight testing show that the yaw angle accuracy of the algorithm is 30% better than conventional algorithms, and pitch and roll angle calculation precision is improved by 60%.The mean square deviation of heading and attitude angle error during dynamic flight is less than3.05°. Experimental results show that CS-MAEKF meets the application requirements of miniature loitering vehicles.
基金supported by Natural Science Foundation Research Project of Shanxi Science and Technology Department(2016JM1032)
文摘Current statistical model(CSM) has a good performance in maneuvering target tracking. However, the fixed maneuvering frequency will deteriorate the tracking results, such as a serious dynamic delay, a slowly converging speedy and a limited precision when using Kalman filter(KF) algorithm. In this study, a new current statistical model and a new Kalman filter are proposed to improve the performance of maneuvering target tracking. The new model which employs innovation dominated subjection function to adaptively adjust maneuvering frequency has a better performance in step maneuvering target tracking, while a fluctuant phenomenon appears. As far as this problem is concerned, a new adaptive fading Kalman filter is proposed as well. In the new Kalman filter, the prediction values are amended in time by setting judgment and amendment rules,so that tracking precision and fluctuant phenomenon of the new current statistical model are improved. The results of simulation indicate the effectiveness of the new algorithm and the practical guiding significance.
