The packaging quality of coaxial laser diodes(CLDs)plays a pivotal role in determining their optical performance and long-term reliability.As the core packaging process,high-precision laser welding requires precise co...The packaging quality of coaxial laser diodes(CLDs)plays a pivotal role in determining their optical performance and long-term reliability.As the core packaging process,high-precision laser welding requires precise control of process parameters to suppress optical power loss.However,the complex nonlinear relationship between welding parameters and optical power loss renders traditional trial-and-error methods inefficient and imprecise.To address this challenge,a physics-informed(PI)and data-driven collaboration approach for welding parameter optimization is proposed.First,thermal-fluid-solid coupling finite element method(FEM)was employed to quantify the sensitivity of welding parameters to physical characteristics,including residual stress.This analysis facilitated the identification of critical factors contributing to optical power loss.Subsequently,a Gaussian process regression(GPR)model incorporating finite element simulation prior knowledge was constructed based on the selected features.By introducing physics-informed kernel(PIK)functions,stress distribution patterns were embedded into the prediction model,achieving high-precision optical power loss prediction.Finally,a Bayesian optimization(BO)algorithm with an adaptive sampling strategy was implemented for efficient parameter space exploration.Experimental results demonstrate that the proposedmethod effectively establishes explicit physical correlations between welding parameters and optical power loss.The optimized welding parameters reduced optical power loss by 34.1%,providing theoretical guidance and technical support for reliable CLD packaging.展开更多
Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)imaging method(GIM)has been successfully applied to global regions to investigate vertical land motion(VLM)of the Earth's surface.GNSS images derived from conventional GIM m...Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)imaging method(GIM)has been successfully applied to global regions to investigate vertical land motion(VLM)of the Earth's surface.GNSS images derived from conventional GIM method may present fragmented patches and encounter problems caused by excessive smoothing of velocity peaks,leading to difficulty in short-wavelength deformation detection and improper geophysical interpretation.Therefore,we propose a novel GNSS imaging method based on Gaussian process regression with velocity uncertainty considered(GPR-VU).Gaussian processing regression is introduced to describe the spatial relationship between neighboring site pairs as a priori weights and then reweight velocities by known station uncertainties,converting the discrete velocity field to a continuous one.The GPR-VU method is applied to reconstruct VLM images in the southwestern United States and the eastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,China,using the GNSS position time series in vertical direction.Compared to the traditional GIM method,the root-mean-square(RMS)and overall accuracy of the confusion matrix of the GPR-VU method increase by 5.0%and 14.0%from the 1°×1°checkerboard test in the southwestern United States.Similarly,the RMS and overall accuracy increase by 33.7%and 15.8%from the 6°×6°checkerboard test in the eastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.These checkerboard tests validate the capability to effectively capture the spatiotemporal variations characteristics of VLM and show that this algorithm outperforms the sparsely distributed network in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.The images from the GPR-VU method using real data in both regions show significant subsidence around Lassen Volcanic in northern California within a 30 km radius,slight uplift in the northern Sichuan Basin,and subsidence in its central and southern sections.These results further qualitatively illustrate consistency with previous findings.The GPR-VU method outperforms in diminishing the effect by fragmented patches,excessive smoothing of velocity peaks,and detecting potential short-wavelength deformations.展开更多
Robot interaction control with variable impedance parameters may conform to task requirements during continuous interaction with dynamic environments.Iterative learning(IL)is effective to learn desired impedance param...Robot interaction control with variable impedance parameters may conform to task requirements during continuous interaction with dynamic environments.Iterative learning(IL)is effective to learn desired impedance parameters for robots under unknown environments,and Gaussian process(GP)is a nonparametric Bayesian approach that models complicated functions with provable confidence using limited data.In this paper,we propose an impedance IL method enhanced by a sparse online Gaussian process(SOGP)to speed up learning convergence and improve generalization.The SOGP for variable impedance modeling is updated in the same iteration by removing similar data points from previous iterations while learning impedance parameters in multiple iterations.The proposed IL-SOGP method is verified by high-fidelity simulations of a collaborative robot with 7 degrees of freedom based on the admittance control framework.It is shown that the proposed method accelerates iterative convergence and improves generalization compared to the classical IL-based impedance learning method.展开更多
The conventional single model strategy may be ill- suited due to the multiplicity of operation phases and system uncertainty. A novel global-local discriminant analysis （GLDA） based Gaussian process regression （GPR...The conventional single model strategy may be ill- suited due to the multiplicity of operation phases and system uncertainty. A novel global-local discriminant analysis （GLDA） based Gaussian process regression （GPR） approach is developed for the quality prediction of nonlinear and multiphase batch processes. After the collected data is preprocessed through batchwise unfolding, the hidden Markov model （HMM） is applied to identify different operation phases. A GLDA algorithm is also presented to extract the appropriate process variables highly correlated with the quality variables, decreasing the complexity of modeling. Besides, the multiple local GPR models are built in the reduced- dimensional space for all the identified operation phases. Furthermore, the HMM-based state estimation is used to classify each measurement sample of a test batch into a corresponding phase with the maximal likelihood estimation. Therefore, the local GPR model with respect to specific phase is selected for online prediction. The effectiveness of the proposed prediction approach is demonstrated through the multiphase penicillin fermentation process. The comparison results show that the proposed GLDA-GPR approach is superior to the regular GPR model and the GPR based on HMM （HMM-GPR） model.展开更多
Presented is a multiple model soft sensing method based on Affinity Propagation （AP）, Gaussian process （GP） and Bayesian committee machine （BCM）. AP clustering arithmetic is used to cluster training samples acco...Presented is a multiple model soft sensing method based on Affinity Propagation （AP）, Gaussian process （GP） and Bayesian committee machine （BCM）. AP clustering arithmetic is used to cluster training samples according to their operating points. Then, the sub-models are estimated by Gaussian Process Regression （GPR）. Finally, in order to get a global probabilistic prediction, Bayesian committee mactnne is used to combine the outputs of the sub-estimators. The proposed method has been applied to predict the light naphtha end point in hydrocracker fractionators. Practical applications indicate that it is useful for the online prediction of quality monitoring in chemical processes.展开更多
High pressure die casting (HPDC) is a versatile material processing method for mass-production of metal parts with complex geometries,and this method has been widely used in manufacturing various products of excellent...High pressure die casting (HPDC) is a versatile material processing method for mass-production of metal parts with complex geometries,and this method has been widely used in manufacturing various products of excellent dimensional accuracy and productivity. In order to ensure the quality of the components,a number of variables need to be properly set. A novel methodology for high pressure die casting process optimization was developed,validated and applied to selection of optimal parameters,which incorporate design of experiment (DOE),Gaussian process (GP) regression technique and genetic algorithms (GA). This new approach was applied to process optimization for cast magnesium alloy notebook shell. After being trained,using data generated by PROCAST (FEM-based simulation software),the GP model approximated well with the simulation by extracting useful information from the simulation results. With the help of MATLAB,the GP/GA based approach has achieved the optimum solution of die casting process condition settings.展开更多
Let {Xi}i=1^∞ be a standardized stationary Gaussian sequence with covariance function τ（n） =EX1Xn＋1, Sn =∑i=1^nXi,and X^-n=Sn/n.And let Nn be the point process formed by the exceedances of random level （x/√2 l...Let {Xi}i=1^∞ be a standardized stationary Gaussian sequence with covariance function τ（n） =EX1Xn＋1, Sn =∑i=1^nXi,and X^-n=Sn/n.And let Nn be the point process formed by the exceedances of random level （x/√2 log n＋√2 log n-log（4π log n）/2√log n） √1-τ（n） ＋ X^-n by X1,X2,…, Xn. Under some mild conditions, Nn and Sn are asymptotically independent, and Nn converges weakly to a Poisson process on （0,1].展开更多
Ballistic Missile Trajectory Prediction(BMTP)is critical to air defense systems.Most Trajectory Prediction(TP)methods focus on the coast and reentry phases,in which the Ballistic Missile(BM)trajectories are modeled as...Ballistic Missile Trajectory Prediction(BMTP)is critical to air defense systems.Most Trajectory Prediction(TP)methods focus on the coast and reentry phases,in which the Ballistic Missile(BM)trajectories are modeled as ellipses or the state components are propagated by the dynamic integral equations on time scales.In contrast,the boost-phase TP is more challenging because there are many unknown forces acting on the BM in this phase.To tackle this difficult problem,a novel BMTP method by using Gaussian Processes(GPs)is proposed in this paper.In particular,the GP is employed to train the prediction error model of the boost-phase trajectory database,in which the error refers to the difference between the true BM state at the prediction moment and the integral extrapolation of the BM state.And the final BMTP is a combination of the dynamic equation based numerical integration and the GP-based prediction error.Since the trained GP aims to capture the relationship between the numerical integration and the unknown error,the modified BM state prediction is closer to the true one compared with the original TP.Furthermore,the GP is able to output the uncertainty information of the TP,which is of great significance for determining the warning range centered on the predicted BM state.Simulation results show that the proposed method effectively improves the BMTP accuracy during the boost phase and provides reliable uncertainty estimation boundaries.展开更多
Reliable process monitoring is important for ensuring process safety and product quality.A production process is generally characterized bymultiple operation modes,and monitoring thesemultimodal processes is challengi...Reliable process monitoring is important for ensuring process safety and product quality.A production process is generally characterized bymultiple operation modes,and monitoring thesemultimodal processes is challenging.Most multimodal monitoring methods rely on the assumption that the modes are independent of each other,which may not be appropriate for practical application.This study proposes a transition-constrained Gaussian mixture model method for efficient multimodal process monitoring.This technique can reduce falsely and frequently occurring mode transitions by considering the time series information in the mode identification of historical and online data.This process enables the identified modes to reflect the stability of actual working conditions,improve mode identification accuracy,and enhance monitoring reliability in cases of mode overlap.Case studies on a numerical simulation example and simulation of the penicillin fermentation process are provided to verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach inmultimodal process monitoring with mode overlap.展开更多
High-precision filtering estimation is one of the key techniques for strapdown inertial navigation system/global navigation satellite system(SINS/GNSS)integrated navigation system,and its estimation plays an important...High-precision filtering estimation is one of the key techniques for strapdown inertial navigation system/global navigation satellite system(SINS/GNSS)integrated navigation system,and its estimation plays an important role in the performance evaluation of the navigation system.Traditional filter estimation methods usually assume that the measurement noise conforms to the Gaussian distribution,without considering the influence of the pollution introduced by the GNSS signal,which is susceptible to external interference.To address this problem,a high-precision filter estimation method using Gaussian process regression(GPR)is proposed to enhance the prediction and estimation capability of the unscented quaternion estimator(USQUE)to improve the navigation accuracy.Based on the advantage of the GPR machine learning function,the estimation performance of the sliding window for model training is measured.This method estimates the output of the observation information source through the measurement window and realizes the robust measurement update of the filter.The combination of GPR and the USQUE algorithm establishes a robust mechanism framework,which enhances the robustness and stability of traditional methods.The results of the trajectory simulation experiment and SINS/GNSS car-mounted tests indicate that the strategy has strong robustness and high estimation accuracy,which demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.展开更多
In this paper,we consider an inference problem for an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by a general one-dimensional centered Gaussian process(G_(t))t≥0.The second order mixed partial derivative of the covariance fun...In this paper,we consider an inference problem for an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by a general one-dimensional centered Gaussian process(G_(t))t≥0.The second order mixed partial derivative of the covariance function R(t,s)=E[GtGs]can be decomposed into two parts,one of which coincides with that of fractional Brownian motion and the other of which is bounded by(ts)^(β-1)up to a constant factor.This condition is valid for a class of continuous Gaussian processes that fails to be self-similar or to have stationary increments;some examples of this include the subfractional Brownian motion and the bi-fractional Brownian motion.Under this assumption,we study the parameter estimation for a drift parameter in the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by the Gaussian noise(G_(t))t≥0.For the least squares estimator and the second moment estimator constructed from the continuous observations,we prove the strong consistency and the asympotic normality,and obtain the Berry-Esséen bounds.The proof is based on the inner product's representation of the Hilbert space(h)associated with the Gaussian noise(G_(t))t≥0,and the estimation of the inner product based on the results of the Hilbert space associated with the fractional Brownian motion.展开更多
Cutting tool condition directly affects machining quality and efficiency.In order to avoid severely worn tools used during machining process and fully release the remaining useful life in the meanwhile,a reliable eval...Cutting tool condition directly affects machining quality and efficiency.In order to avoid severely worn tools used during machining process and fully release the remaining useful life in the meanwhile,a reliable evaluation method of remaining useful life of cutting tools is quite necessary.Due to the variation of cutting conditions,it is a challenge to predict remaining useful life of cutting tools by a unified model.In order to address this issue,this paper proposes a method for predicting the remaining useful life of cutting tools in variable cutting conditions based on Gaussian process regression model incorporated with tool wear mechanism,where the predicted value at adjacent moments is constrained to a linear relationship by the covariance matrix of Gaussian model based on the assumption of progressive tool wear process,so the wear process under continuous changing conditions can be modelled.In addition to that,the input feature space and the output of the model are also enhanced by considering the tool wear mechanism for improving prediction accuracy.Machining experiments are performed to verify the proposed method,and the results show that the proposed could improve the prediction of tool remaining useful life significantly.展开更多
It remains challenging to effectively estimate the remaining capacity of the secondary lithium-ion batteries that have been widely adopted for consumer electronics,energy storage,and electric vehicles.Herein,by integr...It remains challenging to effectively estimate the remaining capacity of the secondary lithium-ion batteries that have been widely adopted for consumer electronics,energy storage,and electric vehicles.Herein,by integrating regular real-time current short pulse tests with data-driven Gaussian process regression algorithm,an efficient battery estimation has been successfully developed and validated for batteries with capacity ranging from 100%of the state of health(SOH)to below 50%,reaching an average accuracy as high as 95%.Interestingly,the proposed pulse test strategy for battery capacity measurement could reduce test time by more than 80%compared with regular long charge/discharge tests.The short-term features of the current pulse test were selected for an optimal training process.Data at different voltage stages and state of charge(SOC)are collected and explored to find the most suitable estimation model.In particular,we explore the validity of five different machine-learning methods for estimating capacity driven by pulse features,whereas Gaussian process regression with Matern kernel performs the best,providing guidance for future exploration.The new strategy of combining short pulse tests with machine-learning algorithms could further open window for efficiently forecasting lithium-ion battery remaining capacity.展开更多
In this article, we consider the drift parameter estimation problem for the nonergodic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process defined as dXt = OXtdt + dGt, i > 0 with an unknown parameter θ> 0, where G is a Gaussian proces...In this article, we consider the drift parameter estimation problem for the nonergodic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process defined as dXt = OXtdt + dGt, i > 0 with an unknown parameter θ> 0, where G is a Gaussian process. We assume that the process {xt,t≥ 0} is observed at discrete time instants t1=△n,…, tn = n△n, and we construct two least squares type estimators θn and θn for θ on the basis of the discrete observations ,{xti,i= 1,…, n} as →∞. Then, we provide sufficient conditions, based on properties of G, which ensure that θn and θn are strongly consistent and the sequences √n△n(θn-θ) and √n△n(θn-θ) are tight. Our approach offers an elementary proof of [11], which studied the case when G is a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter H∈(1/2, 1). As such, our results extend the recent findings by [11] to the case of general Hurst parameter H∈(0,1). We also apply our approach to study subfractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and bifractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes.展开更多
A novel model named Multi-scale Gaussian Processes (MGP) is proposed. Motivated by the ideas of multi-scale representations in the wavelet theory, in the new model, a Gaussian process is represented at a scale by a li...A novel model named Multi-scale Gaussian Processes (MGP) is proposed. Motivated by the ideas of multi-scale representations in the wavelet theory, in the new model, a Gaussian process is represented at a scale by a linear basis that is composed of a scale function and its different translations. Finally the distribution of the targets of the given samples can be obtained at different scales. Compared with the standard Gaussian Processes (GP) model, the MGP model can control its complexity conveniently just by adjusting the scale pa-rameter. So it can trade-off the generalization ability and the empirical risk rapidly. Experiments verify the fea-sibility of the MGP model, and exhibit that its performance is superior to the GP model if appropriate scales are chosen.展开更多
The dynamic soft sensor based on a single Gaussian process regression(GPR) model has been developed in fermentation processes.However,limitations of single regression models,for multiphase/multimode fermentation proce...The dynamic soft sensor based on a single Gaussian process regression(GPR) model has been developed in fermentation processes.However,limitations of single regression models,for multiphase/multimode fermentation processes,may result in large prediction errors and complexity of the soft sensor.Therefore,a dynamic soft sensor based on Gaussian mixture regression(GMR) was proposed to overcome the problems.Two structure parameters,the number of Gaussian components and the order of the model,are crucial to the soft sensor model.To achieve a simple and effective soft sensor,an iterative strategy was proposed to optimize the two structure parameters synchronously.For the aim of comparisons,the proposed dynamic GMR soft sensor and the existing dynamic GPR soft sensor were both investigated to estimate biomass concentration in a Penicillin simulation process and an industrial Erythromycin fermentation process.Results show that the proposed dynamic GMR soft sensor has higher prediction accuracy and is more suitable for dynamic multiphase/multimode fermentation processes.展开更多
Gaussian process(GP)has fewer parameters,simple model and output of probabilistic sense,when compared with the methods such as support vector machines.Selection of the hyper-parameters is critical to the performance o...Gaussian process(GP)has fewer parameters,simple model and output of probabilistic sense,when compared with the methods such as support vector machines.Selection of the hyper-parameters is critical to the performance of Gaussian process model.However,the common-used algorithm has the disadvantages of difficult determination of iteration steps,over-dependence of optimization effect on initial values,and easily falling into local optimum.To solve this problem,a method combining the Gaussian process with memetic algorithm was proposed.Based on this method,memetic algorithm was used to search the optimal hyper parameters of Gaussian process regression(GPR)model in the training process and form MA-GPR algorithms,and then the model was used to predict and test the results.When used in the marine long-range precision strike system(LPSS)battle effectiveness evaluation,the proposed MA-GPR model significantly improved the prediction accuracy,compared with the conjugate gradient method and the genetic algorithm optimization process.展开更多
In order to meet the demand of online optimal running, a novel soft sensor modeling approach based on Gaussian processes was proposed. The approach is moderately simple to implement and use without loss of performance...In order to meet the demand of online optimal running, a novel soft sensor modeling approach based on Gaussian processes was proposed. The approach is moderately simple to implement and use without loss of performance. It is trained by optimizing the hyperparameters using the scaled conjugate gradient algorithm with the squared exponential covariance function employed. Experimental simulations show that the soft sensor modeling approach has the advantage via a real-world example in a refinery. Meanwhile, the method opens new possibilities for application of kernel methods to potential fields.展开更多
基金funded by the National Key R&D Program of China,Grant No.2024YFF0504904.
文摘The packaging quality of coaxial laser diodes(CLDs)plays a pivotal role in determining their optical performance and long-term reliability.As the core packaging process,high-precision laser welding requires precise control of process parameters to suppress optical power loss.However,the complex nonlinear relationship between welding parameters and optical power loss renders traditional trial-and-error methods inefficient and imprecise.To address this challenge,a physics-informed(PI)and data-driven collaboration approach for welding parameter optimization is proposed.First,thermal-fluid-solid coupling finite element method(FEM)was employed to quantify the sensitivity of welding parameters to physical characteristics,including residual stress.This analysis facilitated the identification of critical factors contributing to optical power loss.Subsequently,a Gaussian process regression(GPR)model incorporating finite element simulation prior knowledge was constructed based on the selected features.By introducing physics-informed kernel(PIK)functions,stress distribution patterns were embedded into the prediction model,achieving high-precision optical power loss prediction.Finally,a Bayesian optimization(BO)algorithm with an adaptive sampling strategy was implemented for efficient parameter space exploration.Experimental results demonstrate that the proposedmethod effectively establishes explicit physical correlations between welding parameters and optical power loss.The optimized welding parameters reduced optical power loss by 34.1%,providing theoretical guidance and technical support for reliable CLD packaging.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42274035)the Major Science and Technology Program for Hubei Province(No.2022AAA002)the Hunan Provincial Land Surveying and Mapping Project(HNGTCH-2023-05)。
文摘Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)imaging method(GIM)has been successfully applied to global regions to investigate vertical land motion(VLM)of the Earth's surface.GNSS images derived from conventional GIM method may present fragmented patches and encounter problems caused by excessive smoothing of velocity peaks,leading to difficulty in short-wavelength deformation detection and improper geophysical interpretation.Therefore,we propose a novel GNSS imaging method based on Gaussian process regression with velocity uncertainty considered(GPR-VU).Gaussian processing regression is introduced to describe the spatial relationship between neighboring site pairs as a priori weights and then reweight velocities by known station uncertainties,converting the discrete velocity field to a continuous one.The GPR-VU method is applied to reconstruct VLM images in the southwestern United States and the eastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,China,using the GNSS position time series in vertical direction.Compared to the traditional GIM method,the root-mean-square(RMS)and overall accuracy of the confusion matrix of the GPR-VU method increase by 5.0%and 14.0%from the 1°×1°checkerboard test in the southwestern United States.Similarly,the RMS and overall accuracy increase by 33.7%and 15.8%from the 6°×6°checkerboard test in the eastern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.These checkerboard tests validate the capability to effectively capture the spatiotemporal variations characteristics of VLM and show that this algorithm outperforms the sparsely distributed network in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.The images from the GPR-VU method using real data in both regions show significant subsidence around Lassen Volcanic in northern California within a 30 km radius,slight uplift in the northern Sichuan Basin,and subsidence in its central and southern sections.These results further qualitatively illustrate consistency with previous findings.The GPR-VU method outperforms in diminishing the effect by fragmented patches,excessive smoothing of velocity peaks,and detecting potential short-wavelength deformations.
基金supported in part by the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF)Grant Funded by the Korea Government(MSIT)(RS-2025-00555064).Recommended by Associate Editor Zengguang Hou.
文摘Robot interaction control with variable impedance parameters may conform to task requirements during continuous interaction with dynamic environments.Iterative learning(IL)is effective to learn desired impedance parameters for robots under unknown environments,and Gaussian process(GP)is a nonparametric Bayesian approach that models complicated functions with provable confidence using limited data.In this paper,we propose an impedance IL method enhanced by a sparse online Gaussian process(SOGP)to speed up learning convergence and improve generalization.The SOGP for variable impedance modeling is updated in the same iteration by removing similar data points from previous iterations while learning impedance parameters in multiple iterations.The proposed IL-SOGP method is verified by high-fidelity simulations of a collaborative robot with 7 degrees of freedom based on the admittance control framework.It is shown that the proposed method accelerates iterative convergence and improves generalization compared to the classical IL-based impedance learning method.
基金The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.JUDCF12027,JUSRP51323B)the Scientific Innovation Research of College Graduates in Jiangsu Province(No.CXLX12_0734)
文摘The conventional single model strategy may be ill- suited due to the multiplicity of operation phases and system uncertainty. A novel global-local discriminant analysis （GLDA） based Gaussian process regression （GPR） approach is developed for the quality prediction of nonlinear and multiphase batch processes. After the collected data is preprocessed through batchwise unfolding, the hidden Markov model （HMM） is applied to identify different operation phases. A GLDA algorithm is also presented to extract the appropriate process variables highly correlated with the quality variables, decreasing the complexity of modeling. Besides, the multiple local GPR models are built in the reduced- dimensional space for all the identified operation phases. Furthermore, the HMM-based state estimation is used to classify each measurement sample of a test batch into a corresponding phase with the maximal likelihood estimation. Therefore, the local GPR model with respect to specific phase is selected for online prediction. The effectiveness of the proposed prediction approach is demonstrated through the multiphase penicillin fermentation process. The comparison results show that the proposed GLDA-GPR approach is superior to the regular GPR model and the GPR based on HMM （HMM-GPR） model.
基金Supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (2006AA040309)National BasicResearch Program of China (2007CB714000)
文摘Presented is a multiple model soft sensing method based on Affinity Propagation （AP）, Gaussian process （GP） and Bayesian committee machine （BCM）. AP clustering arithmetic is used to cluster training samples according to their operating points. Then, the sub-models are estimated by Gaussian Process Regression （GPR）. Finally, in order to get a global probabilistic prediction, Bayesian committee mactnne is used to combine the outputs of the sub-estimators. The proposed method has been applied to predict the light naphtha end point in hydrocracker fractionators. Practical applications indicate that it is useful for the online prediction of quality monitoring in chemical processes.
文摘High pressure die casting (HPDC) is a versatile material processing method for mass-production of metal parts with complex geometries,and this method has been widely used in manufacturing various products of excellent dimensional accuracy and productivity. In order to ensure the quality of the components,a number of variables need to be properly set. A novel methodology for high pressure die casting process optimization was developed,validated and applied to selection of optimal parameters,which incorporate design of experiment (DOE),Gaussian process (GP) regression technique and genetic algorithms (GA). This new approach was applied to process optimization for cast magnesium alloy notebook shell. After being trained,using data generated by PROCAST (FEM-based simulation software),the GP model approximated well with the simulation by extracting useful information from the simulation results. With the help of MATLAB,the GP/GA based approach has achieved the optimum solution of die casting process condition settings.
基金Supported by the Program for Excellent Talents in Chongqing Higher Education Institutions (120060-20600204)
文摘Let {Xi}i=1^∞ be a standardized stationary Gaussian sequence with covariance function τ（n） =EX1Xn＋1, Sn =∑i=1^nXi,and X^-n=Sn/n.And let Nn be the point process formed by the exceedances of random level （x/√2 log n＋√2 log n-log（4π log n）/2√log n） √1-τ（n） ＋ X^-n by X1,X2,…, Xn. Under some mild conditions, Nn and Sn are asymptotically independent, and Nn converges weakly to a Poisson process on （0,1].
基金support from National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.61873205,61771399)Aerospace Science Foundation of China(No.2019-HT-XGD)Natural Science Basic Research Plan in Shaanxi Province of China(No.2020JM-101).
文摘Ballistic Missile Trajectory Prediction(BMTP)is critical to air defense systems.Most Trajectory Prediction(TP)methods focus on the coast and reentry phases,in which the Ballistic Missile(BM)trajectories are modeled as ellipses or the state components are propagated by the dynamic integral equations on time scales.In contrast,the boost-phase TP is more challenging because there are many unknown forces acting on the BM in this phase.To tackle this difficult problem,a novel BMTP method by using Gaussian Processes(GPs)is proposed in this paper.In particular,the GP is employed to train the prediction error model of the boost-phase trajectory database,in which the error refers to the difference between the true BM state at the prediction moment and the integral extrapolation of the BM state.And the final BMTP is a combination of the dynamic equation based numerical integration and the GP-based prediction error.Since the trained GP aims to capture the relationship between the numerical integration and the unknown error,the modified BM state prediction is closer to the true one compared with the original TP.Furthermore,the GP is able to output the uncertainty information of the TP,which is of great significance for determining the warning range centered on the predicted BM state.Simulation results show that the proposed method effectively improves the BMTP accuracy during the boost phase and provides reliable uncertainty estimation boundaries.
基金supported in part by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grants 61973119 and 61603138in part by Shanghai Rising-Star Program under Grant 20QA1402600+1 种基金in part by the Open Funding from Shandong Key Laboratory of Big-data Driven Safety Control Technology for Complex Systems under Grant SKDN202001in part by the Programme of Introducing Talents of Discipline to Universities(the 111 Project)under Grant B17017.
文摘Reliable process monitoring is important for ensuring process safety and product quality.A production process is generally characterized bymultiple operation modes,and monitoring thesemultimodal processes is challenging.Most multimodal monitoring methods rely on the assumption that the modes are independent of each other,which may not be appropriate for practical application.This study proposes a transition-constrained Gaussian mixture model method for efficient multimodal process monitoring.This technique can reduce falsely and frequently occurring mode transitions by considering the time series information in the mode identification of historical and online data.This process enables the identified modes to reflect the stability of actual working conditions,improve mode identification accuracy,and enhance monitoring reliability in cases of mode overlap.Case studies on a numerical simulation example and simulation of the penicillin fermentation process are provided to verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach inmultimodal process monitoring with mode overlap.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61873275,61703419,425317829).
文摘High-precision filtering estimation is one of the key techniques for strapdown inertial navigation system/global navigation satellite system(SINS/GNSS)integrated navigation system,and its estimation plays an important role in the performance evaluation of the navigation system.Traditional filter estimation methods usually assume that the measurement noise conforms to the Gaussian distribution,without considering the influence of the pollution introduced by the GNSS signal,which is susceptible to external interference.To address this problem,a high-precision filter estimation method using Gaussian process regression(GPR)is proposed to enhance the prediction and estimation capability of the unscented quaternion estimator(USQUE)to improve the navigation accuracy.Based on the advantage of the GPR machine learning function,the estimation performance of the sliding window for model training is measured.This method estimates the output of the observation information source through the measurement window and realizes the robust measurement update of the filter.The combination of GPR and the USQUE algorithm establishes a robust mechanism framework,which enhances the robustness and stability of traditional methods.The results of the trajectory simulation experiment and SINS/GNSS car-mounted tests indicate that the strategy has strong robustness and high estimation accuracy,which demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.
文摘In this paper,we consider an inference problem for an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by a general one-dimensional centered Gaussian process(G_(t))t≥0.The second order mixed partial derivative of the covariance function R(t,s)=E[GtGs]can be decomposed into two parts,one of which coincides with that of fractional Brownian motion and the other of which is bounded by(ts)^(β-1)up to a constant factor.This condition is valid for a class of continuous Gaussian processes that fails to be self-similar or to have stationary increments;some examples of this include the subfractional Brownian motion and the bi-fractional Brownian motion.Under this assumption,we study the parameter estimation for a drift parameter in the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by the Gaussian noise(G_(t))t≥0.For the least squares estimator and the second moment estimator constructed from the continuous observations,we prove the strong consistency and the asympotic normality,and obtain the Berry-Esséen bounds.The proof is based on the inner product's representation of the Hilbert space(h)associated with the Gaussian noise(G_(t))t≥0,and the estimation of the inner product based on the results of the Hilbert space associated with the fractional Brownian motion.
基金National Natural Science Foundation Project of China(Nos.51925505,51921003)。
文摘Cutting tool condition directly affects machining quality and efficiency.In order to avoid severely worn tools used during machining process and fully release the remaining useful life in the meanwhile,a reliable evaluation method of remaining useful life of cutting tools is quite necessary.Due to the variation of cutting conditions,it is a challenge to predict remaining useful life of cutting tools by a unified model.In order to address this issue,this paper proposes a method for predicting the remaining useful life of cutting tools in variable cutting conditions based on Gaussian process regression model incorporated with tool wear mechanism,where the predicted value at adjacent moments is constrained to a linear relationship by the covariance matrix of Gaussian model based on the assumption of progressive tool wear process,so the wear process under continuous changing conditions can be modelled.In addition to that,the input feature space and the output of the model are also enhanced by considering the tool wear mechanism for improving prediction accuracy.Machining experiments are performed to verify the proposed method,and the results show that the proposed could improve the prediction of tool remaining useful life significantly.
基金support from Shenzhen Municipal Development and Reform Commission(Grant Number:SDRC[2016]172)Shenzhen Science and Technology Program(Grant No.KQTD20170810150821146)Interdisciplinary Research and Innovation Fund of Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School,and Shanghai Shun Feng Machinery Co.,Ltd.
文摘It remains challenging to effectively estimate the remaining capacity of the secondary lithium-ion batteries that have been widely adopted for consumer electronics,energy storage,and electric vehicles.Herein,by integrating regular real-time current short pulse tests with data-driven Gaussian process regression algorithm,an efficient battery estimation has been successfully developed and validated for batteries with capacity ranging from 100%of the state of health(SOH)to below 50%,reaching an average accuracy as high as 95%.Interestingly,the proposed pulse test strategy for battery capacity measurement could reduce test time by more than 80%compared with regular long charge/discharge tests.The short-term features of the current pulse test were selected for an optimal training process.Data at different voltage stages and state of charge(SOC)are collected and explored to find the most suitable estimation model.In particular,we explore the validity of five different machine-learning methods for estimating capacity driven by pulse features,whereas Gaussian process regression with Matern kernel performs the best,providing guidance for future exploration.The new strategy of combining short pulse tests with machine-learning algorithms could further open window for efficiently forecasting lithium-ion battery remaining capacity.
基金supported and funded by Kuwait University,Research Project No.SM01/16
文摘In this article, we consider the drift parameter estimation problem for the nonergodic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process defined as dXt = OXtdt + dGt, i > 0 with an unknown parameter θ> 0, where G is a Gaussian process. We assume that the process {xt,t≥ 0} is observed at discrete time instants t1=△n,…, tn = n△n, and we construct two least squares type estimators θn and θn for θ on the basis of the discrete observations ,{xti,i= 1,…, n} as →∞. Then, we provide sufficient conditions, based on properties of G, which ensure that θn and θn are strongly consistent and the sequences √n△n(θn-θ) and √n△n(θn-θ) are tight. Our approach offers an elementary proof of [11], which studied the case when G is a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter H∈(1/2, 1). As such, our results extend the recent findings by [11] to the case of general Hurst parameter H∈(0,1). We also apply our approach to study subfractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and bifractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes.
文摘A novel model named Multi-scale Gaussian Processes (MGP) is proposed. Motivated by the ideas of multi-scale representations in the wavelet theory, in the new model, a Gaussian process is represented at a scale by a linear basis that is composed of a scale function and its different translations. Finally the distribution of the targets of the given samples can be obtained at different scales. Compared with the standard Gaussian Processes (GP) model, the MGP model can control its complexity conveniently just by adjusting the scale pa-rameter. So it can trade-off the generalization ability and the empirical risk rapidly. Experiments verify the fea-sibility of the MGP model, and exhibit that its performance is superior to the GP model if appropriate scales are chosen.
基金Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province of China(BK20130531)the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(PAPD[2011]6)Jiangsu Government Scholarship
文摘The dynamic soft sensor based on a single Gaussian process regression(GPR) model has been developed in fermentation processes.However,limitations of single regression models,for multiphase/multimode fermentation processes,may result in large prediction errors and complexity of the soft sensor.Therefore,a dynamic soft sensor based on Gaussian mixture regression(GMR) was proposed to overcome the problems.Two structure parameters,the number of Gaussian components and the order of the model,are crucial to the soft sensor model.To achieve a simple and effective soft sensor,an iterative strategy was proposed to optimize the two structure parameters synchronously.For the aim of comparisons,the proposed dynamic GMR soft sensor and the existing dynamic GPR soft sensor were both investigated to estimate biomass concentration in a Penicillin simulation process and an industrial Erythromycin fermentation process.Results show that the proposed dynamic GMR soft sensor has higher prediction accuracy and is more suitable for dynamic multiphase/multimode fermentation processes.
基金Project(513300303)supported by the General Armament Department,China
文摘Gaussian process(GP)has fewer parameters,simple model and output of probabilistic sense,when compared with the methods such as support vector machines.Selection of the hyper-parameters is critical to the performance of Gaussian process model.However,the common-used algorithm has the disadvantages of difficult determination of iteration steps,over-dependence of optimization effect on initial values,and easily falling into local optimum.To solve this problem,a method combining the Gaussian process with memetic algorithm was proposed.Based on this method,memetic algorithm was used to search the optimal hyper parameters of Gaussian process regression(GPR)model in the training process and form MA-GPR algorithms,and then the model was used to predict and test the results.When used in the marine long-range precision strike system(LPSS)battle effectiveness evaluation,the proposed MA-GPR model significantly improved the prediction accuracy,compared with the conjugate gradient method and the genetic algorithm optimization process.
文摘In order to meet the demand of online optimal running, a novel soft sensor modeling approach based on Gaussian processes was proposed. The approach is moderately simple to implement and use without loss of performance. It is trained by optimizing the hyperparameters using the scaled conjugate gradient algorithm with the squared exponential covariance function employed. Experimental simulations show that the soft sensor modeling approach has the advantage via a real-world example in a refinery. Meanwhile, the method opens new possibilities for application of kernel methods to potential fields.
