The ability to accurately predict urban traffic flows is crucial for optimising city operations.Consequently,various methods for forecasting urban traffic have been developed,focusing on analysing historical data to u...The ability to accurately predict urban traffic flows is crucial for optimising city operations.Consequently,various methods for forecasting urban traffic have been developed,focusing on analysing historical data to understand complex mobility patterns.Deep learning techniques,such as graph neural networks(GNNs),are popular for their ability to capture spatio-temporal dependencies.However,these models often become overly complex due to the large number of hyper-parameters involved.In this study,we introduce Dynamic Multi-Graph Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Ordinary Differential Equation Networks(DMST-GNODE),a framework based on ordinary differential equations(ODEs)that autonomously discovers effective spatial-temporal graph neural network(STGNN)architectures for traffic prediction tasks.The comparative analysis of DMST-GNODE and baseline models indicates that DMST-GNODE model demonstrates superior performance across multiple datasets,consistently achieving the lowest Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)and Mean Absolute Error(MAE)values,alongside the highest accuracy.On the BKK(Bangkok)dataset,it outperformed other models with an RMSE of 3.3165 and an accuracy of 0.9367 for a 20-min interval,maintaining this trend across 40 and 60 min.Similarly,on the PeMS08 dataset,DMST-GNODE achieved the best performance with an RMSE of 19.4863 and an accuracy of 0.9377 at 20 min,demonstrating its effectiveness over longer periods.The Los_Loop dataset results further emphasise this model’s advantage,with an RMSE of 3.3422 and an accuracy of 0.7643 at 20 min,consistently maintaining superiority across all time intervals.These numerical highlights indicate that DMST-GNODE not only outperforms baseline models but also achieves higher accuracy and lower errors across different time intervals and datasets.展开更多
The prediction of regional traffic flows is important for traffic control and management in an intelligent traffic system.With the help of deep neural networks,the convolutional neural network or residual neural netwo...The prediction of regional traffic flows is important for traffic control and management in an intelligent traffic system.With the help of deep neural networks,the convolutional neural network or residual neural network,which can be applied only to regular grids,is adopted to capture the spatial dependence for flow prediction.However,the obtained regions are always irregular considering the road network and administrative boundaries;thus,dividing the city into grids is inaccurate for prediction.In this paper,we propose a new model based on multi-graph convolutional network and gated recurrent unit(MGCN-GRU)to predict traffic flows for irregular regions.Specifically,we first construct heterogeneous inter-region graphs for a city to reflect the rela-tionships among regions.In each graph,nodes represent the irregular regions and edges represent the relationship types between regions.Then,we propose a multi-graph convolutional network to fuse different inter-region graphs and additional attributes.The GRU is further used to capture the temporal dependence and to predict future traffic flows.Experimental results based on three real-world large-scale datasets(public bicycle system dataset,taxi dataset,and dockless bike-sharing dataset)show that our MGCN-GRU model outperforms a variety of existing methods.展开更多
文摘The ability to accurately predict urban traffic flows is crucial for optimising city operations.Consequently,various methods for forecasting urban traffic have been developed,focusing on analysing historical data to understand complex mobility patterns.Deep learning techniques,such as graph neural networks(GNNs),are popular for their ability to capture spatio-temporal dependencies.However,these models often become overly complex due to the large number of hyper-parameters involved.In this study,we introduce Dynamic Multi-Graph Spatial-Temporal Graph Neural Ordinary Differential Equation Networks(DMST-GNODE),a framework based on ordinary differential equations(ODEs)that autonomously discovers effective spatial-temporal graph neural network(STGNN)architectures for traffic prediction tasks.The comparative analysis of DMST-GNODE and baseline models indicates that DMST-GNODE model demonstrates superior performance across multiple datasets,consistently achieving the lowest Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)and Mean Absolute Error(MAE)values,alongside the highest accuracy.On the BKK(Bangkok)dataset,it outperformed other models with an RMSE of 3.3165 and an accuracy of 0.9367 for a 20-min interval,maintaining this trend across 40 and 60 min.Similarly,on the PeMS08 dataset,DMST-GNODE achieved the best performance with an RMSE of 19.4863 and an accuracy of 0.9377 at 20 min,demonstrating its effectiveness over longer periods.The Los_Loop dataset results further emphasise this model’s advantage,with an RMSE of 3.3422 and an accuracy of 0.7643 at 20 min,consistently maintaining superiority across all time intervals.These numerical highlights indicate that DMST-GNODE not only outperforms baseline models but also achieves higher accuracy and lower errors across different time intervals and datasets.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61903109)the Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(No.LY19F030021)。
文摘The prediction of regional traffic flows is important for traffic control and management in an intelligent traffic system.With the help of deep neural networks,the convolutional neural network or residual neural network,which can be applied only to regular grids,is adopted to capture the spatial dependence for flow prediction.However,the obtained regions are always irregular considering the road network and administrative boundaries;thus,dividing the city into grids is inaccurate for prediction.In this paper,we propose a new model based on multi-graph convolutional network and gated recurrent unit(MGCN-GRU)to predict traffic flows for irregular regions.Specifically,we first construct heterogeneous inter-region graphs for a city to reflect the rela-tionships among regions.In each graph,nodes represent the irregular regions and edges represent the relationship types between regions.Then,we propose a multi-graph convolutional network to fuse different inter-region graphs and additional attributes.The GRU is further used to capture the temporal dependence and to predict future traffic flows.Experimental results based on three real-world large-scale datasets(public bicycle system dataset,taxi dataset,and dockless bike-sharing dataset)show that our MGCN-GRU model outperforms a variety of existing methods.
