This paper describes a new approach to intelligent model based predictive control scheme for deriving a complex system. In the control scheme presented, the main problem of the linear model based predictive control th...This paper describes a new approach to intelligent model based predictive control scheme for deriving a complex system. In the control scheme presented, the main problem of the linear model based predictive control theory in dealing with severe nonlinear and time variant systems is thoroughly solved. In fact, this theory could appropriately be improved to a perfect approach for handling all complex systems, provided that they are firstly taken into consideration in line with the outcomes presented. This control scheme is organized based on a multi-fuzzy-based predictive control approach as well as a multi-fuzzy-based predictive model approach, while an intelligent decision mechanism system (IDMS) is used to identify the best fuzzy-based predictive model approach and the corresponding fuzzy-based predictive control approach, at each instant of time. In order to demonstrate the validity of the proposed control scheme, the single linear model based generalized predictive control scheme is used as a benchmark approach. At last, the appropriate tracking performance of the proposed control scheme is easily outperformed in comparison with previous one.展开更多
The spring (March-April-May) rainfall over northern China (SPRNC) is predicted by using the interannual increment approach. DY denotes the difference between the current year and previous years. The seasonal forecast ...The spring (March-April-May) rainfall over northern China (SPRNC) is predicted by using the interannual increment approach. DY denotes the difference between the current year and previous years. The seasonal forecast model for the DY of SPRNC is constructed based on the data that are taken from the 1965-2002 period (38 years), in which six predictors are available no later than the current month of February. This is favorable so that the seasonal forecasts can be made one month ahead. Then, SPRNC and the percentage anomaly of SPRNC are obtained by the predicted DY of SPRNC. The model performs well in the prediction of the inter-annual variation of the DY of SPRNC during 1965-2002, with a correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed DY of SPRNC of 0.87. This accounts for 76% of the total variance, with a low value for the average root mean square error (RMSE) of 20%. Both the results of the hindcast for the period of 2003-2010 (eight years) and the cross-validation test for the period of 1965-2009 (45 years) illustrate the good prediction capability of the model, with a small mean relative error of 10%, an RMSE of 17% and a high rate of coherence of 87.5% for the hindcasts of the percentage anomaly of SPRNC.展开更多
To represent model uncertainties more comprehensively,a stochastically perturbed parameterization(SPP)scheme consisting of temporally and spatially varying perturbations of 18 parameters in the microphysics,convection...To represent model uncertainties more comprehensively,a stochastically perturbed parameterization(SPP)scheme consisting of temporally and spatially varying perturbations of 18 parameters in the microphysics,convection,boundary layer,and surface layer parameterization schemes,as well as the stochastically perturbed parameterization tendencies(SPPT)scheme,and the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter(SKEB)scheme,is applied in the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System-Regional Ensemble Prediction System(GRAPES-REPS)to evaluate and compare the general performance of various combinations of multiple stochastic physics schemes.Six experiments are performed for a summer month(1-30 June 2015)over China and multiple verification metrics are used.The results show that:(1)All stochastic experiments outperform the control(CTL)experiment,and all combinations of stochastic parameterization schemes perform better than the single SPP scheme,indicating that stochastic methods can effectively improve the forecast skill,and combinations of multiple stochastic parameterization schemes can better represent model uncertainties;(2)The combination of all three stochastic physics schemes(SPP,SPPT,and SKEB)outperforms any other combination of two schemes in precipitation forecasting and surface and upper-air verification to better represent the model uncertainties and improve the forecast skill;(3)Combining SKEB with SPP and/or SPPT results in a notable increase in the spread and reduction in outliers for the upper-air wind speed.SKEB directly perturbs the wind field and therefore its addition will greatly impact the upper-air wind-speed fields,and it contributes most to the improvement in spread and outliers for wind;(4)The introduction of SPP has a positive added value,and does not lead to large changes in the evolution of the kinetic energy(KE)spectrum at any wavelength;(5)The introduction of SPPT and SKEB would cause a 5%-10%and 30%-80%change in the KE of mesoscale systems,and all three stochastic schemes(SPP,SPPT,and SKEB)mainly affect the KE of mesoscale systems.This study indicates the potential of combining multiple stochastic physics schemes and lays a foundation for the future development and design of regional and global ensembles.展开更多
Failure mechanism and impact resistance of a human porous cranium are studied in detail by means of theoretical and numerical methods.It is hypothesized that pore distribution of a cranium directly affects cranial ene...Failure mechanism and impact resistance of a human porous cranium are studied in detail by means of theoretical and numerical methods.It is hypothesized that pore distribution of a cranium directly affects cranial energy absorption,and a stretched beam model and a real beam model are taken as the example for the verification.Meanwhile,for the purpose of comparison with numerical results,a theoretical model is also proposed for the prediction of residual velocity and contact force of the impactor for an impacted skull.Compared with the real beam model,the stretched beam model containing through-thickness pores is easily deformed under the impact,thereby buffering well the external impact energy.The energy absorption efficiency of both the stretched beam model and real beam model is concerned with the threshold velocity for penetration which is directly related to the size of the structural damage area.Overall,there is good agreement between numerical and theoretical results.In addition,the effect of structural geometric parameters(shape and size of the impactor)on the impact resistance of the skull bone is theoretically investigated.The study provides reference for the evaluation of the energy absorption and failure mechanism of the skull under impact loads.展开更多
The prediction of pregnancy-related hazards must be accurate and timely to safeguard mother and fetal health.This study aims to enhance risk prediction in pregnancywith a novel deep learningmodel based on a Long Short...The prediction of pregnancy-related hazards must be accurate and timely to safeguard mother and fetal health.This study aims to enhance risk prediction in pregnancywith a novel deep learningmodel based on a Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)generator,designed to capture temporal relationships in cardiotocography(CTG)data.This methodology integrates CTG signals with demographic characteristics and utilizes preprocessing techniques such as noise reduction,normalization,and segmentation to create high-quality input for themodel.It uses convolutional layers to extract spatial information,followed by LSTM layers to model sequences for superior predictive performance.The overall results show that themodel is robust,with an accuracy of 91.5%,precision of 89.8%,recall of 90.4%,and F1-score of 90.1%that outperformed the corresponding baselinemodels,CNN(Convolutional Neural Network)and traditional RNN(Recurrent Neural Network),by 2.3%and 6.1%,respectively.Rather,the ability to detect pregnancy-related abnormalities has considerable therapeutic potential,with the possibility for focused treatments and individualized maternal healthcare approaches,the research team concluded.展开更多
Sewer corrosion is a critical issue that significantly threatens sewer systems,contributing to approximately 40%of sewer infrastructure deterioration.Although numerous review studies have been conducted in this field,...Sewer corrosion is a critical issue that significantly threatens sewer systems,contributing to approximately 40%of sewer infrastructure deterioration.Although numerous review studies have been conducted in this field,gaps persist in identifying the complex factors driving corrosion and understanding their interrelationships.These deficiencies impede the development of accurate corrosion prediction models and the identification of more effective mitigation strategies.This research aims to deepen the understanding of the underlying causes of sewer corrosion,evaluate the latest advancements in prediction models,and explore current mitigation techniques.A novel hybrid approach is employed,combining bibliometric,scientometric,and systematic analysis.While widely used in other fields,this methodology is new in sewer corrosion.The key findings of this study include a comprehensive identification of the various factors influencing corrosion,an overview of existing corrosion prediction models,and an evaluation of currently employed mitigation strategies.Additionally,this research highlights critical research gaps and suggests future avenues for investigation,with the potential to support municipalities in more efficient and flexible management of sewer infrastructure.展开更多
The boreal spring Antarctic Oscillation(AAO)has a significant impact on the spring and summer climate in China.This study evaluates the capability of the NCEP's Climate Forecast System,version 2(CFSv2),in predicti...The boreal spring Antarctic Oscillation(AAO)has a significant impact on the spring and summer climate in China.This study evaluates the capability of the NCEP's Climate Forecast System,version 2(CFSv2),in predicting the boreal spring AAO for the period 1983-2015.The results indicate that CFSv2 has poor skill in predicting the spring AAO,failing to predict the zonally symmetric spatial pattern of the AAO,with an insignificant correlation of 0.02 between the predicted and observed AAO Index(AAOI).Considering the interannual increment approach can amplify the prediction signals,we firstly establish a dynamical-statistical model to improve the interannual increment of the AAOI(DY AAOI),with two predictors of CFSv2-forecasted concurrent spring sea surface temperatures and observed preceding autumn sea ice.This dynamical-statistical model demonstrates good capability in predicting DY AAOI,with a significant correlation coeffcient of 0.58 between the observation and prediction during 1983-2015 in the two-year-out cross-validation.Then,we obtain an improved AAOI by adding the improved DY AAOI to the preceding observed AAOI.The improved AAOI shows a significant correlation coeffcient of 0.45 with the observed AAOI during 1983-2015.Moreover,the unrealistic atmospheric response to March-April-May sea ice in CFSv2 may be the possible cause for the failure of CFSv2 to predict the AAO.This study gives new clues regarding AAO prediction and short-term climate prediction.展开更多
With the application of 2.5D Woven Variable Thickness Composites(2.5DWVTC)in aviation and other fields,the issue of strength failure in this composite type has become a focal point.First,a three-step modeling approach...With the application of 2.5D Woven Variable Thickness Composites(2.5DWVTC)in aviation and other fields,the issue of strength failure in this composite type has become a focal point.First,a three-step modeling approach is proposed to rapidly construct full-scale meso-finite element models for Outer Reduction Yarn Woven Composites(ORYWC)and Inner Reduction Yarn Woven Composites(IRYWC).Then,six independent damage variables are identified:yarn fiber tension/compression,yarn matrix tension/compression,and resin matrix tension/compression.These variables are utilized to establish the constitutive equation of woven composites,considering the coupling effects of microscopic damage.Finally,combined with the Hashin failure criterion and von Mises failure criterion,the strength prediction model is implemented in ANSYS using APDL language to simulate the strength failure process of 2.5DWVTC.The results show that the predicted stiffness and strength values of various parts of ORYWC and IRYWC are in good agreement with the relevant test results.展开更多
文摘This paper describes a new approach to intelligent model based predictive control scheme for deriving a complex system. In the control scheme presented, the main problem of the linear model based predictive control theory in dealing with severe nonlinear and time variant systems is thoroughly solved. In fact, this theory could appropriately be improved to a perfect approach for handling all complex systems, provided that they are firstly taken into consideration in line with the outcomes presented. This control scheme is organized based on a multi-fuzzy-based predictive control approach as well as a multi-fuzzy-based predictive model approach, while an intelligent decision mechanism system (IDMS) is used to identify the best fuzzy-based predictive model approach and the corresponding fuzzy-based predictive control approach, at each instant of time. In order to demonstrate the validity of the proposed control scheme, the single linear model based generalized predictive control scheme is used as a benchmark approach. At last, the appropriate tracking performance of the proposed control scheme is easily outperformed in comparison with previous one.
基金Innovation Key Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(KZCX2-YW-QN202)Global Climate Change Research National Basic Research Program of China(2010CB950304)+1 种基金Innovation Key Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX2-YW-BR-14)Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) (GYHY200906018)
文摘The spring (March-April-May) rainfall over northern China (SPRNC) is predicted by using the interannual increment approach. DY denotes the difference between the current year and previous years. The seasonal forecast model for the DY of SPRNC is constructed based on the data that are taken from the 1965-2002 period (38 years), in which six predictors are available no later than the current month of February. This is favorable so that the seasonal forecasts can be made one month ahead. Then, SPRNC and the percentage anomaly of SPRNC are obtained by the predicted DY of SPRNC. The model performs well in the prediction of the inter-annual variation of the DY of SPRNC during 1965-2002, with a correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed DY of SPRNC of 0.87. This accounts for 76% of the total variance, with a low value for the average root mean square error (RMSE) of 20%. Both the results of the hindcast for the period of 2003-2010 (eight years) and the cross-validation test for the period of 1965-2009 (45 years) illustrate the good prediction capability of the model, with a small mean relative error of 10%, an RMSE of 17% and a high rate of coherence of 87.5% for the hindcasts of the percentage anomaly of SPRNC.
基金National Key Research and Development(R&D)Program of China,(Grant No.2018YFC1507405).
文摘To represent model uncertainties more comprehensively,a stochastically perturbed parameterization(SPP)scheme consisting of temporally and spatially varying perturbations of 18 parameters in the microphysics,convection,boundary layer,and surface layer parameterization schemes,as well as the stochastically perturbed parameterization tendencies(SPPT)scheme,and the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter(SKEB)scheme,is applied in the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System-Regional Ensemble Prediction System(GRAPES-REPS)to evaluate and compare the general performance of various combinations of multiple stochastic physics schemes.Six experiments are performed for a summer month(1-30 June 2015)over China and multiple verification metrics are used.The results show that:(1)All stochastic experiments outperform the control(CTL)experiment,and all combinations of stochastic parameterization schemes perform better than the single SPP scheme,indicating that stochastic methods can effectively improve the forecast skill,and combinations of multiple stochastic parameterization schemes can better represent model uncertainties;(2)The combination of all three stochastic physics schemes(SPP,SPPT,and SKEB)outperforms any other combination of two schemes in precipitation forecasting and surface and upper-air verification to better represent the model uncertainties and improve the forecast skill;(3)Combining SKEB with SPP and/or SPPT results in a notable increase in the spread and reduction in outliers for the upper-air wind speed.SKEB directly perturbs the wind field and therefore its addition will greatly impact the upper-air wind-speed fields,and it contributes most to the improvement in spread and outliers for wind;(4)The introduction of SPP has a positive added value,and does not lead to large changes in the evolution of the kinetic energy(KE)spectrum at any wavelength;(5)The introduction of SPPT and SKEB would cause a 5%-10%and 30%-80%change in the KE of mesoscale systems,and all three stochastic schemes(SPP,SPPT,and SKEB)mainly affect the KE of mesoscale systems.This study indicates the potential of combining multiple stochastic physics schemes and lays a foundation for the future development and design of regional and global ensembles.
基金This study was funded in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant 12002107)the National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents(Grant BX20190101)+3 种基金the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant 2019M661268)the Heilongjiang Postdoctoral Financial Assistance(Grant LBH-Z19061)The present work was also supported in part by Alexander von Humboldt Foundation(Grant 1155520)(University of Siegen,Germany)the Science and Technology on Advanced Composites in Special Environment Laboratory,Young Elite Scientist Sponsorship Program by CAST(Grant YESS20160190).
文摘Failure mechanism and impact resistance of a human porous cranium are studied in detail by means of theoretical and numerical methods.It is hypothesized that pore distribution of a cranium directly affects cranial energy absorption,and a stretched beam model and a real beam model are taken as the example for the verification.Meanwhile,for the purpose of comparison with numerical results,a theoretical model is also proposed for the prediction of residual velocity and contact force of the impactor for an impacted skull.Compared with the real beam model,the stretched beam model containing through-thickness pores is easily deformed under the impact,thereby buffering well the external impact energy.The energy absorption efficiency of both the stretched beam model and real beam model is concerned with the threshold velocity for penetration which is directly related to the size of the structural damage area.Overall,there is good agreement between numerical and theoretical results.In addition,the effect of structural geometric parameters(shape and size of the impactor)on the impact resistance of the skull bone is theoretically investigated.The study provides reference for the evaluation of the energy absorption and failure mechanism of the skull under impact loads.
文摘The prediction of pregnancy-related hazards must be accurate and timely to safeguard mother and fetal health.This study aims to enhance risk prediction in pregnancywith a novel deep learningmodel based on a Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)generator,designed to capture temporal relationships in cardiotocography(CTG)data.This methodology integrates CTG signals with demographic characteristics and utilizes preprocessing techniques such as noise reduction,normalization,and segmentation to create high-quality input for themodel.It uses convolutional layers to extract spatial information,followed by LSTM layers to model sequences for superior predictive performance.The overall results show that themodel is robust,with an accuracy of 91.5%,precision of 89.8%,recall of 90.4%,and F1-score of 90.1%that outperformed the corresponding baselinemodels,CNN(Convolutional Neural Network)and traditional RNN(Recurrent Neural Network),by 2.3%and 6.1%,respectively.Rather,the ability to detect pregnancy-related abnormalities has considerable therapeutic potential,with the possibility for focused treatments and individualized maternal healthcare approaches,the research team concluded.
基金supported by the Research Grants Council of the University Grants Committee in Hong Kong,China(No.RGC-15209022).
文摘Sewer corrosion is a critical issue that significantly threatens sewer systems,contributing to approximately 40%of sewer infrastructure deterioration.Although numerous review studies have been conducted in this field,gaps persist in identifying the complex factors driving corrosion and understanding their interrelationships.These deficiencies impede the development of accurate corrosion prediction models and the identification of more effective mitigation strategies.This research aims to deepen the understanding of the underlying causes of sewer corrosion,evaluate the latest advancements in prediction models,and explore current mitigation techniques.A novel hybrid approach is employed,combining bibliometric,scientometric,and systematic analysis.While widely used in other fields,this methodology is new in sewer corrosion.The key findings of this study include a comprehensive identification of the various factors influencing corrosion,an overview of existing corrosion prediction models,and an evaluation of currently employed mitigation strategies.Additionally,this research highlights critical research gaps and suggests future avenues for investigation,with the potential to support municipalities in more efficient and flexible management of sewer infrastructure.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFA0600703)the funding of the Jiangsu Innovation & Entrepreneurship Team and the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions
文摘The boreal spring Antarctic Oscillation(AAO)has a significant impact on the spring and summer climate in China.This study evaluates the capability of the NCEP's Climate Forecast System,version 2(CFSv2),in predicting the boreal spring AAO for the period 1983-2015.The results indicate that CFSv2 has poor skill in predicting the spring AAO,failing to predict the zonally symmetric spatial pattern of the AAO,with an insignificant correlation of 0.02 between the predicted and observed AAO Index(AAOI).Considering the interannual increment approach can amplify the prediction signals,we firstly establish a dynamical-statistical model to improve the interannual increment of the AAOI(DY AAOI),with two predictors of CFSv2-forecasted concurrent spring sea surface temperatures and observed preceding autumn sea ice.This dynamical-statistical model demonstrates good capability in predicting DY AAOI,with a significant correlation coeffcient of 0.58 between the observation and prediction during 1983-2015 in the two-year-out cross-validation.Then,we obtain an improved AAOI by adding the improved DY AAOI to the preceding observed AAOI.The improved AAOI shows a significant correlation coeffcient of 0.45 with the observed AAOI during 1983-2015.Moreover,the unrealistic atmospheric response to March-April-May sea ice in CFSv2 may be the possible cause for the failure of CFSv2 to predict the AAO.This study gives new clues regarding AAO prediction and short-term climate prediction.
基金supported by National Science and Technology Major Project,China(No.2017-IV-0007-0044)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52175142),National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52305170)Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan Province,China(No.2022NSFSC1885)。
文摘With the application of 2.5D Woven Variable Thickness Composites(2.5DWVTC)in aviation and other fields,the issue of strength failure in this composite type has become a focal point.First,a three-step modeling approach is proposed to rapidly construct full-scale meso-finite element models for Outer Reduction Yarn Woven Composites(ORYWC)and Inner Reduction Yarn Woven Composites(IRYWC).Then,six independent damage variables are identified:yarn fiber tension/compression,yarn matrix tension/compression,and resin matrix tension/compression.These variables are utilized to establish the constitutive equation of woven composites,considering the coupling effects of microscopic damage.Finally,combined with the Hashin failure criterion and von Mises failure criterion,the strength prediction model is implemented in ANSYS using APDL language to simulate the strength failure process of 2.5DWVTC.The results show that the predicted stiffness and strength values of various parts of ORYWC and IRYWC are in good agreement with the relevant test results.
