为明确机场服务质量的影响因素及旅客对机场服务质量满意程度,提高机场服务质量,运用逼近理想解排序法(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution,TOPSIS)与贝叶斯网络结合的评估模型,建立大型运输机场服务...为明确机场服务质量的影响因素及旅客对机场服务质量满意程度,提高机场服务质量,运用逼近理想解排序法(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution,TOPSIS)与贝叶斯网络结合的评估模型,建立大型运输机场服务质量评价指标体系。运用双向推理诊断模型评价机场服务质量,对机场满意度正向推理以及影响指标的反向敏感性诊断。对旅客机场服务质量满意度以及影响因素进行深入研究,并以某大型运输机场为例验证方法的可行性。研究结果表明,旅客对该机场的服务质量满意概率为0.67,一般满意概率为0.21。反向诊断得到行李提取系统、进出机场综合交通与城市连接的便利性、安检服务效率等影响因素敏感性较高。为机场科学制定提升服务质量措施提供理论基础。展开更多
High-precision methane gas detection is of great importance in industrial safety, energy production and environmental protection, etc. However, in the existing measurement techniques, the methane gas concentration inf...High-precision methane gas detection is of great importance in industrial safety, energy production and environmental protection, etc. However, in the existing measurement techniques, the methane gas concentration information is susceptible to noise, which leads to its useful signal being drowned by noise. A fusion algorithm of variational modal decomposition(VMD) and improved wavelet threshold filtering is proposed, which is used in combination with tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy(TDLAS) to implement a non-contact, high-resolution methane gas concentration detection. The fusion algorithm can perform noise reduction and further segmentation of the methane gas detection signal. And the simulation and experiment verify the effectiveness of the fusion algorithm, and the experimental results show that for the detection of air containing 10 ppm, 30 ppm, 60 ppm, 80 ppm, and 99 ppm methane, the errors are 12.75%, 8.18%, 3.37%, 2.46%, and 1.78%, respectively.展开更多
In this paper,an advanced satellite navigation filter design,referred to as the Variational Bayesian Maximum Correntropy Extended Kalman Filter(VBMCEKF),is introduced to enhance robustness and adaptability in scenario...In this paper,an advanced satellite navigation filter design,referred to as the Variational Bayesian Maximum Correntropy Extended Kalman Filter(VBMCEKF),is introduced to enhance robustness and adaptability in scenarios with non-Gaussian noise and heavy-tailed outliers.The proposed design modifies the extended Kalman filter(EKF)for the global navigation satellite system(GNSS),integrating the maximum correntropy criterion(MCC)and the variational Bayesian(VB)method.This adaptive algorithm effectively reduces non-line-of-sight(NLOS)reception contamination and improves estimation accuracy,particularly in time-varying GNSS measurements.Experimental results show that the proposed method significantly outperforms conventional approaches in estimation accuracy under heavy-tailed outliers and non-Gaussian noise.By combining MCC with VB approximation for real-time noise covariance estimation using fixed-point iteration,the VBMCEKF achieves superior filtering performance in challenging GNSS conditions.The method’s adaptability and precision make it ideal for improving satellite navigation performance in stochastic environments.展开更多
This study investigates photonuclear reaction(γ,n)cross-sections using Bayesian neural network(BNN)analysis.After determining the optimal network architecture,which features two hidden layers,each with 50 hidden node...This study investigates photonuclear reaction(γ,n)cross-sections using Bayesian neural network(BNN)analysis.After determining the optimal network architecture,which features two hidden layers,each with 50 hidden nodes,training was conducted for 30,000 iterations to ensure comprehensive data capture.By analyzing the distribution of absolute errors positively correlated with the cross-section for the isotope 159Tb,as well as the relative errors unrelated to the cross-section,we confirmed that the network effectively captured the data features without overfitting.Comparison with the TENDL-2021 Database demonstrated the BNN's reliability in fitting photonuclear cross-sections with lower average errors.The predictions for nuclei with single and double giant dipole resonance peak cross-sections,the accurate determination of the photoneutron reaction threshold in the low-energy region,and the precise description of trends in the high-energy cross-sections further demonstrate the network's generalization ability on the validation set.This can be attributed to the consistency of the training data.By using consistent training sets from different laboratories,Bayesian neural networks can predict nearby unknown cross-sections based on existing laboratory data,thereby estimating the potential differences between other laboratories'existing data and their own measurement results.Experimental measurements of photonuclear reactions on the newly constructed SLEGS beamline will contribute to clarifying the differences in cross-sections within the existing data.展开更多
Bayesian-optimized lithology identification has important basic geological research significance and engineering application value,and this paper proposes a Bayesian-optimized lithology identification method based on ...Bayesian-optimized lithology identification has important basic geological research significance and engineering application value,and this paper proposes a Bayesian-optimized lithology identification method based on machine learning of rock visible and near-infrared spectral data.First,the rock spectral data are preprocessed using Savitzky-Golay(SG)smoothing to remove the noise of the spectral data;then,the preprocessed rock spectral data are downscaled using Principal Component Analysis(PCA)to reduce the redundancy of the data,optimize the effective discriminative information,and obtain the rock spectral features;finally,a Bayesian-optimized lithology identification model is established based on rock spectral features,optimize the model hyperparameters using Bayesian optimization(BO)algorithm to avoid the combination of hyperparameters falling into the local optimal solution,and output the predicted type of rock,so as to realize the Bayesian-optimized lithology identification.In addition,this paper conducts comparative analysis on models based on Artificial Neural Network(ANN)/Random Forest(RF),dimensionality reduction/full band,and optimization algorithms.It uses the confusion matrix,accuracy,Precison(P),Recall(R)and F_(1)values(F_(1))as the evaluation indexes of model accuracy.The results indicate that the lithology identification model optimized by the BO-ANN after dimensionality reduction achieves an accuracy of up to 99.80%,up to 99.79%and up to 99.79%.Compared with the BO-RF model,it has higher identification accuracy and better stability for each type of rock identification.The experiments and reliability analysis show that the Bayesian-optimized lithology identification method proposed in this paper has good robustness and generalization performance,which is of great significance for realizing fast,accurate and Bayesian-optimized lithology identification in tunnel site.展开更多
Engineering tests can yield inaccurate data due to instrument errors,human factors,and environmental interference,introducing uncertainty in numerical model updating.This study employs the probability-box(p-box)method...Engineering tests can yield inaccurate data due to instrument errors,human factors,and environmental interference,introducing uncertainty in numerical model updating.This study employs the probability-box(p-box)method for representing observational uncertainty and develops a two-step approximate Bayesian computation(ABC)framework using time-series data.Within the ABC framework,Euclidean and Bhattacharyya distances are employed as uncertainty quantification metrics to delineate approximate likelihood functions in the initial and subsequent steps,respectively.A novel variational Bayesian Monte Carlo method is introduced to efficiently apply the ABC framework amidst observational uncertainty,resulting in rapid convergence and accurate parameter estimation with minimal iterations.The efficacy of the proposed updating strategy is validated by its application to a shear frame model excited by seismic wave and an aviation pump force sensor for thermal output analysis.The results affirm the efficiency,robustness,and practical applicability of the proposed method.展开更多
Recently,machine learning has become a powerful tool for predicting nuclear charge radius RC,providing novel insights into complex physical phenomena.This study employs a continuous Bayesian probability(CBP)estimator ...Recently,machine learning has become a powerful tool for predicting nuclear charge radius RC,providing novel insights into complex physical phenomena.This study employs a continuous Bayesian probability(CBP)estimator and Bayesian model averaging(BMA)to optimize the predictions of RCfrom sophisticated theoretical models.The CBP estimator treats the residual between the theoretical and experimental values of RCas a continuous variable and derives its posterior probability density function(PDF)from Bayesian theory.The BMA method assigns weights to models based on their predictive performance for benchmark nuclei,thereby accounting for the unique strengths of each model.In global optimization,the CBP estimator improved the predictive accuracy of the three theoretical models by approximately 60%.The extrapolation analyses consistently achieved an improvement rate of approximately 45%,demonstrating the robustness of the CBP estimator.Furthermore,the combination of the CBP and BMA methods reduces the standard deviation to below 0.02 fm,effectively reproducing the pronounced shell effects on RCof the Ca and Sr isotope chains.The studies in this paper propose an efficient method to accurately describe RCof unknown nuclei,with potential applications in research on other nuclear properties.展开更多
Objective To investigate the spatiotemporal patterns and socioeconomic factors influencing the incidence of tuberculosis(TB)in the Guangdong Province between 2010 and 2019.Method Spatial and temporal variations in TB ...Objective To investigate the spatiotemporal patterns and socioeconomic factors influencing the incidence of tuberculosis(TB)in the Guangdong Province between 2010 and 2019.Method Spatial and temporal variations in TB incidence were mapped using heat maps and hierarchical clustering.Socioenvironmental influencing factors were evaluated using a Bayesian spatiotemporal conditional autoregressive(ST-CAR)model.Results Annual incidence of TB in Guangdong decreased from 91.85/100,000 in 2010 to 53.06/100,000in 2019.Spatial hotspots were found in northeastern Guangdong,particularly in Heyuan,Shanwei,and Shantou,while Shenzhen,Dongguan,and Foshan had the lowest rates in the Pearl River Delta.The STCAR model showed that the TB risk was lower with higher per capita Gross Domestic Product(GDP)[Relative Risk(RR),0.91;95%Confidence Interval(CI):0.86–0.98],more the ratio of licensed physicians and physician(RR,0.94;95%CI:0.90-0.98),and higher per capita public expenditure(RR,0.94;95%CI:0.90–0.97),with a marginal effect of population density(RR,0.86;95%CI:0.86–1.00).Conclusion The incidence of TB in Guangdong varies spatially and temporally.Areas with poor economic conditions and insufficient healthcare resources are at an increased risk of TB infection.Strategies focusing on equitable health resource distribution and economic development are the key to TB control.展开更多
Objective:Esophageal cancer has made a great contribution to the cancer burden in Jiangsu Province,East China.This study was aimed at reporting esophageal cancer incidence trend in 2009-2019 and its prediction to 2030...Objective:Esophageal cancer has made a great contribution to the cancer burden in Jiangsu Province,East China.This study was aimed at reporting esophageal cancer incidence trend in 2009-2019 and its prediction to 2030.Methods:The burden of esophageal cancer in Jiangsu in 2019 was estimated using 54 cancer registries’data selected from Jiangsu Cancer Registry.Incident cases of 16 cancer registries were applied for the temporal trend from 2009 to 2019.The burden of esophageal cancer by 2030 was projected using the Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model.Results:About 24,886 new cases of esophageal cancer(17,233 males and 7,653 females)occurred in Jiangsu in 2019.Rural regions of Jiangsu had the highest incidence rate.The age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR,per 100,000 population)of esophageal cancer in Jiangsu decreased from 27.72 per 100,000 in 2009 to 14.18 per 100,000 in 2019.The BAPC model showed that the ASIR would decline from 13.01 per 100,000 in 2020 to 4.88 per 100,000 in 2030.Conclusions:According to the data,esophageal cancer incidence rates were predicted to decline until 2030,yet the disease burden is still significant in Jiangsu.The existing approaches to prevention and control are effective and need to be maintained.展开更多
Full waveform inversion methods evaluate the properties of subsurface media by minimizing the misfit between synthetic and observed data.However,these methods omit measurement errors and physical assumptions in modeli...Full waveform inversion methods evaluate the properties of subsurface media by minimizing the misfit between synthetic and observed data.However,these methods omit measurement errors and physical assumptions in modeling,resulting in several problems in practical applications.In particular,full waveform inversion methods are very sensitive to erroneous observations(outliers)that violate the Gauss–Markov theorem.Herein,we propose a method for addressing spurious observations or outliers.Specifically,we remove outliers by inverting the synthetic data using the local convexity of the Gaussian distribution.To achieve this,we apply a waveform-like noise model based on a specific covariance matrix definition.Finally,we build an inversion problem based on the updated data,which is consistent with the wavefield reconstruction inversion method.Overall,we report an alternative optimization inversion problem for data containing outliers.The proposed method is robust because it uses uncertainties.This method enables accurate inversion,even when based on noisy models or a wrong wavelet.展开更多
A Bayesian network reconstruction method based on norm minimization is proposed to address the sparsity and iterative divergence issues in network reconstruction caused by noise and missing values.This method achieves...A Bayesian network reconstruction method based on norm minimization is proposed to address the sparsity and iterative divergence issues in network reconstruction caused by noise and missing values.This method achieves precise adjustment of the network structure by constructing a preliminary random network model and introducing small-world network characteristics and combines L1 norm minimization regularization techniques to control model complexity and optimize the inference process of variable dependencies.In the experiment of game network reconstruction,when the success rate of the L1 norm minimization model’s existence connection reconstruction reaches 100%,the minimum data required is about 40%,while the minimum data required for a sparse Bayesian learning network is about 45%.In terms of operational efficiency,the running time for minimizing the L1 normis basically maintained at 1.0 s,while the success rate of connection reconstruction increases significantly with an increase in data volume,reaching a maximum of 13.2 s.Meanwhile,in the case of a signal-to-noise ratio of 10 dB,the L1 model achieves a 100% success rate in the reconstruction of existing connections,while the sparse Bayesian network had the highest success rate of 90% in the reconstruction of non-existent connections.In the analysis of actual cases,the maximum lift and drop track of the research method is 0.08 m.The mean square error is 5.74 cm^(2).The results indicate that this norm minimization-based method has good performance in data efficiency and model stability,effectively reducing the impact of outliers on the reconstruction results to more accurately reflect the actual situation.展开更多
The effective and timely diagnosis and treatment of ocular diseases are key to the rapid recovery of patients.Today,the mass disease that needs attention in this context is cataracts.Although deep learning has signifi...The effective and timely diagnosis and treatment of ocular diseases are key to the rapid recovery of patients.Today,the mass disease that needs attention in this context is cataracts.Although deep learning has significantly advanced the analysis of ocular disease images,there is a need for a probabilistic model to generate the distributions of potential outcomes and thusmake decisions related to uncertainty quantification.Therefore,this study implements a Bayesian Convolutional Neural Networks(BCNN)model for predicting cataracts by assigning probability values to the predictions.It prepares convolutional neural network(CNN)and BCNN models.The proposed BCNN model is CNN-based in which reparameterization is in the first and last layers of the CNN model.This study then trains them on a dataset of cataract images filtered from the ocular disease fundus images fromKaggle.The deep CNN model has an accuracy of 95%,while the BCNN model has an accuracy of 93.75% along with information on uncertainty estimation of cataracts and normal eye conditions.When compared with other methods,the proposed work reveals that it can be a promising solution for cataract prediction with uncertainty estimation.展开更多
In traditional sensing,each parameter is treated as a real number in the signal demodulation,whereas the electric field of light is a complex number.The real and imaginary parts obey the Kramers-Kronig relationship,wh...In traditional sensing,each parameter is treated as a real number in the signal demodulation,whereas the electric field of light is a complex number.The real and imaginary parts obey the Kramers-Kronig relationship,which is expected to help further enhance sensing precision.We propose a self-Bayesian estimate of the method,aiming at reducing measurement variance.This method utilizes the intensity and phase of the parameter to be measured,achieving statistical optimization of the estimated value through Bayesian inference,effectively reducing the measurement variance.To demonstrate the effectiveness of this method,we adopted an optical fiber heterodyne interference sensing vibration measurement system.The experimental results show that the signal-to-noise ratio is effectively improved within the frequency range of 200 to 500 kHz.Moreover,it is believed that the self-Bayesian estimation method holds broad application prospects in various types of optical sensing.展开更多
Integrating Bayesian Optimization with Volume of Fluid (VOF) simulations, this work aims to optimize the operational conditions and geometric parameters of T-junction microchannels for target droplet sizes. Bayesian O...Integrating Bayesian Optimization with Volume of Fluid (VOF) simulations, this work aims to optimize the operational conditions and geometric parameters of T-junction microchannels for target droplet sizes. Bayesian Optimization utilizes Gaussian Process (GP) as its core model and employs an adaptive search strategy to efficiently explore and identify optimal combinations of operational parameters within a limited parameter space, thereby enabling rapid optimization of the required parameters to achieve the target droplet size. Traditional methods typically rely on manually selecting a series of operational parameters and conducting multiple simulations to gradually approach the target droplet size. This process is time-consuming and prone to getting trapped in local optima. In contrast, Bayesian Optimization adaptively adjusts its search strategy, significantly reducing computational costs and effectively exploring global optima, thus greatly improving optimization efficiency. Additionally, the study investigates the impact of rectangular rib structures within the T-junction microchannel on droplet generation, revealing how the channel geometry influences droplet formation and size. After determining the target droplet size, we further applied Bayesian Optimization to refine the rib geometry. The integration of Bayesian Optimization with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) offers a promising tool and provides new insights into the optimal design of microfluidic devices.展开更多
The total nitrogen(TN)is a major factor contributing to eutrophication and is a crucial parameter in assessing surface water quality.Accurate and rapid methods are crucial for determining the TN content in water.Herei...The total nitrogen(TN)is a major factor contributing to eutrophication and is a crucial parameter in assessing surface water quality.Accurate and rapid methods are crucial for determining the TN content in water.Herein,a fast,highly sensitive,and pollution-free approach is proposed,which combines ultraviolet(UV)absorption spectroscopy with Bayesian optimized least squares support vector machine(LSSVM)for detecting TN content in water.Water samples collected from sampling points near the Yangtze River basin in Chongqing of China were analyzed using national standard methods to measure TN content as reference values.The prediction of TN content in water was achieved by integrating the UV absorption spectra of water samples with LSSVM.To make the model quickly and accurately select the optimal parameters to improve the accuracy of the prediction model,the Bayesian optimization(BO)algorithm was used to optimize the parameters of the LSSVM.Results show that the prediction model performs well in predicting TN concentration,with a high coefficient of prediction determination(R^(2)=0.9413)and a low root mean square error of prediction(RMSE=0.0779 mg/L).Comparative analysis with previous studies indicates that the model used in this paper achieves lower prediction errors and superior predictive performance.展开更多
文摘为明确机场服务质量的影响因素及旅客对机场服务质量满意程度,提高机场服务质量,运用逼近理想解排序法(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution,TOPSIS)与贝叶斯网络结合的评估模型,建立大型运输机场服务质量评价指标体系。运用双向推理诊断模型评价机场服务质量,对机场满意度正向推理以及影响指标的反向敏感性诊断。对旅客机场服务质量满意度以及影响因素进行深入研究,并以某大型运输机场为例验证方法的可行性。研究结果表明,旅客对该机场的服务质量满意概率为0.67,一般满意概率为0.21。反向诊断得到行李提取系统、进出机场综合交通与城市连接的便利性、安检服务效率等影响因素敏感性较高。为机场科学制定提升服务质量措施提供理论基础。
基金supported by the Project Grant from Heilongjiang Bayi Agricultural Reclamation University,Heilongjiang,China (No.XDB201813)。
文摘High-precision methane gas detection is of great importance in industrial safety, energy production and environmental protection, etc. However, in the existing measurement techniques, the methane gas concentration information is susceptible to noise, which leads to its useful signal being drowned by noise. A fusion algorithm of variational modal decomposition(VMD) and improved wavelet threshold filtering is proposed, which is used in combination with tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy(TDLAS) to implement a non-contact, high-resolution methane gas concentration detection. The fusion algorithm can perform noise reduction and further segmentation of the methane gas detection signal. And the simulation and experiment verify the effectiveness of the fusion algorithm, and the experimental results show that for the detection of air containing 10 ppm, 30 ppm, 60 ppm, 80 ppm, and 99 ppm methane, the errors are 12.75%, 8.18%, 3.37%, 2.46%, and 1.78%, respectively.
基金supported by the National Science and Technology Council,Taiwan under grants NSTC 111-2221-E-019-047 and NSTC 112-2221-E-019-030.
文摘In this paper,an advanced satellite navigation filter design,referred to as the Variational Bayesian Maximum Correntropy Extended Kalman Filter(VBMCEKF),is introduced to enhance robustness and adaptability in scenarios with non-Gaussian noise and heavy-tailed outliers.The proposed design modifies the extended Kalman filter(EKF)for the global navigation satellite system(GNSS),integrating the maximum correntropy criterion(MCC)and the variational Bayesian(VB)method.This adaptive algorithm effectively reduces non-line-of-sight(NLOS)reception contamination and improves estimation accuracy,particularly in time-varying GNSS measurements.Experimental results show that the proposed method significantly outperforms conventional approaches in estimation accuracy under heavy-tailed outliers and non-Gaussian noise.By combining MCC with VB approximation for real-time noise covariance estimation using fixed-point iteration,the VBMCEKF achieves superior filtering performance in challenging GNSS conditions.The method’s adaptability and precision make it ideal for improving satellite navigation performance in stochastic environments.
基金supported by National key research and development program(No.2022YFA1602404)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.12388102,12275338,12005280)the Key Laboratory of Nuclear Data foundation(No.JCKY2022201C152)。
文摘This study investigates photonuclear reaction(γ,n)cross-sections using Bayesian neural network(BNN)analysis.After determining the optimal network architecture,which features two hidden layers,each with 50 hidden nodes,training was conducted for 30,000 iterations to ensure comprehensive data capture.By analyzing the distribution of absolute errors positively correlated with the cross-section for the isotope 159Tb,as well as the relative errors unrelated to the cross-section,we confirmed that the network effectively captured the data features without overfitting.Comparison with the TENDL-2021 Database demonstrated the BNN's reliability in fitting photonuclear cross-sections with lower average errors.The predictions for nuclei with single and double giant dipole resonance peak cross-sections,the accurate determination of the photoneutron reaction threshold in the low-energy region,and the precise description of trends in the high-energy cross-sections further demonstrate the network's generalization ability on the validation set.This can be attributed to the consistency of the training data.By using consistent training sets from different laboratories,Bayesian neural networks can predict nearby unknown cross-sections based on existing laboratory data,thereby estimating the potential differences between other laboratories'existing data and their own measurement results.Experimental measurements of photonuclear reactions on the newly constructed SLEGS beamline will contribute to clarifying the differences in cross-sections within the existing data.
基金support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos:52379103 and 52279103)the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(Grant No:ZR2023YQ049).
文摘Bayesian-optimized lithology identification has important basic geological research significance and engineering application value,and this paper proposes a Bayesian-optimized lithology identification method based on machine learning of rock visible and near-infrared spectral data.First,the rock spectral data are preprocessed using Savitzky-Golay(SG)smoothing to remove the noise of the spectral data;then,the preprocessed rock spectral data are downscaled using Principal Component Analysis(PCA)to reduce the redundancy of the data,optimize the effective discriminative information,and obtain the rock spectral features;finally,a Bayesian-optimized lithology identification model is established based on rock spectral features,optimize the model hyperparameters using Bayesian optimization(BO)algorithm to avoid the combination of hyperparameters falling into the local optimal solution,and output the predicted type of rock,so as to realize the Bayesian-optimized lithology identification.In addition,this paper conducts comparative analysis on models based on Artificial Neural Network(ANN)/Random Forest(RF),dimensionality reduction/full band,and optimization algorithms.It uses the confusion matrix,accuracy,Precison(P),Recall(R)and F_(1)values(F_(1))as the evaluation indexes of model accuracy.The results indicate that the lithology identification model optimized by the BO-ANN after dimensionality reduction achieves an accuracy of up to 99.80%,up to 99.79%and up to 99.79%.Compared with the BO-RF model,it has higher identification accuracy and better stability for each type of rock identification.The experiments and reliability analysis show that the Bayesian-optimized lithology identification method proposed in this paper has good robustness and generalization performance,which is of great significance for realizing fast,accurate and Bayesian-optimized lithology identification in tunnel site.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U23B20105).
文摘Engineering tests can yield inaccurate data due to instrument errors,human factors,and environmental interference,introducing uncertainty in numerical model updating.This study employs the probability-box(p-box)method for representing observational uncertainty and develops a two-step approximate Bayesian computation(ABC)framework using time-series data.Within the ABC framework,Euclidean and Bhattacharyya distances are employed as uncertainty quantification metrics to delineate approximate likelihood functions in the initial and subsequent steps,respectively.A novel variational Bayesian Monte Carlo method is introduced to efficiently apply the ABC framework amidst observational uncertainty,resulting in rapid convergence and accurate parameter estimation with minimal iterations.The efficacy of the proposed updating strategy is validated by its application to a shear frame model excited by seismic wave and an aviation pump force sensor for thermal output analysis.The results affirm the efficiency,robustness,and practical applicability of the proposed method.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.12475135,12035011,and 12475119)the Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation,China(No.ZR2020MA096)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.22CX03017A)。
文摘Recently,machine learning has become a powerful tool for predicting nuclear charge radius RC,providing novel insights into complex physical phenomena.This study employs a continuous Bayesian probability(CBP)estimator and Bayesian model averaging(BMA)to optimize the predictions of RCfrom sophisticated theoretical models.The CBP estimator treats the residual between the theoretical and experimental values of RCas a continuous variable and derives its posterior probability density function(PDF)from Bayesian theory.The BMA method assigns weights to models based on their predictive performance for benchmark nuclei,thereby accounting for the unique strengths of each model.In global optimization,the CBP estimator improved the predictive accuracy of the three theoretical models by approximately 60%.The extrapolation analyses consistently achieved an improvement rate of approximately 45%,demonstrating the robustness of the CBP estimator.Furthermore,the combination of the CBP and BMA methods reduces the standard deviation to below 0.02 fm,effectively reproducing the pronounced shell effects on RCof the Ca and Sr isotope chains.The studies in this paper propose an efficient method to accurately describe RCof unknown nuclei,with potential applications in research on other nuclear properties.
基金supported by the Guangdong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Tuberculosis(No.2020B1111170014)。
文摘Objective To investigate the spatiotemporal patterns and socioeconomic factors influencing the incidence of tuberculosis(TB)in the Guangdong Province between 2010 and 2019.Method Spatial and temporal variations in TB incidence were mapped using heat maps and hierarchical clustering.Socioenvironmental influencing factors were evaluated using a Bayesian spatiotemporal conditional autoregressive(ST-CAR)model.Results Annual incidence of TB in Guangdong decreased from 91.85/100,000 in 2010 to 53.06/100,000in 2019.Spatial hotspots were found in northeastern Guangdong,particularly in Heyuan,Shanwei,and Shantou,while Shenzhen,Dongguan,and Foshan had the lowest rates in the Pearl River Delta.The STCAR model showed that the TB risk was lower with higher per capita Gross Domestic Product(GDP)[Relative Risk(RR),0.91;95%Confidence Interval(CI):0.86–0.98],more the ratio of licensed physicians and physician(RR,0.94;95%CI:0.90-0.98),and higher per capita public expenditure(RR,0.94;95%CI:0.90–0.97),with a marginal effect of population density(RR,0.86;95%CI:0.86–1.00).Conclusion The incidence of TB in Guangdong varies spatially and temporally.Areas with poor economic conditions and insufficient healthcare resources are at an increased risk of TB infection.Strategies focusing on equitable health resource distribution and economic development are the key to TB control.
文摘Objective:Esophageal cancer has made a great contribution to the cancer burden in Jiangsu Province,East China.This study was aimed at reporting esophageal cancer incidence trend in 2009-2019 and its prediction to 2030.Methods:The burden of esophageal cancer in Jiangsu in 2019 was estimated using 54 cancer registries’data selected from Jiangsu Cancer Registry.Incident cases of 16 cancer registries were applied for the temporal trend from 2009 to 2019.The burden of esophageal cancer by 2030 was projected using the Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model.Results:About 24,886 new cases of esophageal cancer(17,233 males and 7,653 females)occurred in Jiangsu in 2019.Rural regions of Jiangsu had the highest incidence rate.The age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR,per 100,000 population)of esophageal cancer in Jiangsu decreased from 27.72 per 100,000 in 2009 to 14.18 per 100,000 in 2019.The BAPC model showed that the ASIR would decline from 13.01 per 100,000 in 2020 to 4.88 per 100,000 in 2030.Conclusions:According to the data,esophageal cancer incidence rates were predicted to decline until 2030,yet the disease burden is still significant in Jiangsu.The existing approaches to prevention and control are effective and need to be maintained.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 42276055National Key Research and Development Program under Grant 2022YFC2803503Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under Grant 202262008.
文摘Full waveform inversion methods evaluate the properties of subsurface media by minimizing the misfit between synthetic and observed data.However,these methods omit measurement errors and physical assumptions in modeling,resulting in several problems in practical applications.In particular,full waveform inversion methods are very sensitive to erroneous observations(outliers)that violate the Gauss–Markov theorem.Herein,we propose a method for addressing spurious observations or outliers.Specifically,we remove outliers by inverting the synthetic data using the local convexity of the Gaussian distribution.To achieve this,we apply a waveform-like noise model based on a specific covariance matrix definition.Finally,we build an inversion problem based on the updated data,which is consistent with the wavefield reconstruction inversion method.Overall,we report an alternative optimization inversion problem for data containing outliers.The proposed method is robust because it uses uncertainties.This method enables accurate inversion,even when based on noisy models or a wrong wavelet.
基金supported by the Scientific and Technological Developing Scheme of Jilin Province,China(No.20240101371JC)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.62107008).
文摘A Bayesian network reconstruction method based on norm minimization is proposed to address the sparsity and iterative divergence issues in network reconstruction caused by noise and missing values.This method achieves precise adjustment of the network structure by constructing a preliminary random network model and introducing small-world network characteristics and combines L1 norm minimization regularization techniques to control model complexity and optimize the inference process of variable dependencies.In the experiment of game network reconstruction,when the success rate of the L1 norm minimization model’s existence connection reconstruction reaches 100%,the minimum data required is about 40%,while the minimum data required for a sparse Bayesian learning network is about 45%.In terms of operational efficiency,the running time for minimizing the L1 normis basically maintained at 1.0 s,while the success rate of connection reconstruction increases significantly with an increase in data volume,reaching a maximum of 13.2 s.Meanwhile,in the case of a signal-to-noise ratio of 10 dB,the L1 model achieves a 100% success rate in the reconstruction of existing connections,while the sparse Bayesian network had the highest success rate of 90% in the reconstruction of non-existent connections.In the analysis of actual cases,the maximum lift and drop track of the research method is 0.08 m.The mean square error is 5.74 cm^(2).The results indicate that this norm minimization-based method has good performance in data efficiency and model stability,effectively reducing the impact of outliers on the reconstruction results to more accurately reflect the actual situation.
基金Saudi Arabia for funding this work through Small Research Group Project under Grant Number RGP.1/316/45.
文摘The effective and timely diagnosis and treatment of ocular diseases are key to the rapid recovery of patients.Today,the mass disease that needs attention in this context is cataracts.Although deep learning has significantly advanced the analysis of ocular disease images,there is a need for a probabilistic model to generate the distributions of potential outcomes and thusmake decisions related to uncertainty quantification.Therefore,this study implements a Bayesian Convolutional Neural Networks(BCNN)model for predicting cataracts by assigning probability values to the predictions.It prepares convolutional neural network(CNN)and BCNN models.The proposed BCNN model is CNN-based in which reparameterization is in the first and last layers of the CNN model.This study then trains them on a dataset of cataract images filtered from the ocular disease fundus images fromKaggle.The deep CNN model has an accuracy of 95%,while the BCNN model has an accuracy of 93.75% along with information on uncertainty estimation of cataracts and normal eye conditions.When compared with other methods,the proposed work reveals that it can be a promising solution for cataract prediction with uncertainty estimation.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Plan of China(Grant No.2022YFB3207402)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U1833104 and 61735011).
文摘In traditional sensing,each parameter is treated as a real number in the signal demodulation,whereas the electric field of light is a complex number.The real and imaginary parts obey the Kramers-Kronig relationship,which is expected to help further enhance sensing precision.We propose a self-Bayesian estimate of the method,aiming at reducing measurement variance.This method utilizes the intensity and phase of the parameter to be measured,achieving statistical optimization of the estimated value through Bayesian inference,effectively reducing the measurement variance.To demonstrate the effectiveness of this method,we adopted an optical fiber heterodyne interference sensing vibration measurement system.The experimental results show that the signal-to-noise ratio is effectively improved within the frequency range of 200 to 500 kHz.Moreover,it is believed that the self-Bayesian estimation method holds broad application prospects in various types of optical sensing.
基金support from National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFC3905400)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA0490102)National Natural Science Foundation of China(22178354,2242100322408374).
文摘Integrating Bayesian Optimization with Volume of Fluid (VOF) simulations, this work aims to optimize the operational conditions and geometric parameters of T-junction microchannels for target droplet sizes. Bayesian Optimization utilizes Gaussian Process (GP) as its core model and employs an adaptive search strategy to efficiently explore and identify optimal combinations of operational parameters within a limited parameter space, thereby enabling rapid optimization of the required parameters to achieve the target droplet size. Traditional methods typically rely on manually selecting a series of operational parameters and conducting multiple simulations to gradually approach the target droplet size. This process is time-consuming and prone to getting trapped in local optima. In contrast, Bayesian Optimization adaptively adjusts its search strategy, significantly reducing computational costs and effectively exploring global optima, thus greatly improving optimization efficiency. Additionally, the study investigates the impact of rectangular rib structures within the T-junction microchannel on droplet generation, revealing how the channel geometry influences droplet formation and size. After determining the target droplet size, we further applied Bayesian Optimization to refine the rib geometry. The integration of Bayesian Optimization with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) offers a promising tool and provides new insights into the optimal design of microfluidic devices.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.32171627 and 62105252)the Science and Technology Research Program of Chongqing Municipal Education Commission(No.KJZD-M202200602)the Hangzhou Science and Technology Development Project(No.202204T04).
文摘The total nitrogen(TN)is a major factor contributing to eutrophication and is a crucial parameter in assessing surface water quality.Accurate and rapid methods are crucial for determining the TN content in water.Herein,a fast,highly sensitive,and pollution-free approach is proposed,which combines ultraviolet(UV)absorption spectroscopy with Bayesian optimized least squares support vector machine(LSSVM)for detecting TN content in water.Water samples collected from sampling points near the Yangtze River basin in Chongqing of China were analyzed using national standard methods to measure TN content as reference values.The prediction of TN content in water was achieved by integrating the UV absorption spectra of water samples with LSSVM.To make the model quickly and accurately select the optimal parameters to improve the accuracy of the prediction model,the Bayesian optimization(BO)algorithm was used to optimize the parameters of the LSSVM.Results show that the prediction model performs well in predicting TN concentration,with a high coefficient of prediction determination(R^(2)=0.9413)and a low root mean square error of prediction(RMSE=0.0779 mg/L).Comparative analysis with previous studies indicates that the model used in this paper achieves lower prediction errors and superior predictive performance.
