To quantify the seismic resilience of buildings,a method for evaluating functional loss from the component level to the overall building is proposed,and the dual-parameter seismic resilience assessment method based on...To quantify the seismic resilience of buildings,a method for evaluating functional loss from the component level to the overall building is proposed,and the dual-parameter seismic resilience assessment method based on postearthquake loss and recovery time is improved.A threelevel function tree model is established,which can consider the dynamic changes in weight coefficients of different category of components relative to their functional losses.Bayesian networks are utilized to quantify the impact of weather conditions,construction technology levels,and worker skill levels on component repair time.A method for determining the real-time functional recovery curve of buildings based on the component repair process is proposed.Taking a three-story teaching building as an example,the seismic resilience indices under basic earthquakes and rare earthquakes are calculated.The results show that the seismic resilience grade of the teaching building is comprehensively judged as GradeⅢ,and its resilience grade is more significantly affected by postearthquake loss.The proposed method can be used to predict the seismic resilience of buildings prior to earthquakes,identify weak components within buildings,and provide guidance for taking measures to enhance the seismic resilience of buildings.展开更多
This paper deeply analyzes the characteristics of core courses of the traffic engineering specialty and the problems existing in traditional assessment methods,and proposes a series of reform measures for the assessme...This paper deeply analyzes the characteristics of core courses of the traffic engineering specialty and the problems existing in traditional assessment methods,and proposes a series of reform measures for the assessment methods of core courses of the traffic engineering specialty.By introducing diversified assessment methods,focusing on process assessment,and strengthening the assessment of practical abilities,the aim is to improve students’learning enthusiasm and initiative,and cultivate students’innovation ability and practical ability to meet the needs of traffic engineering professionals in the new era.展开更多
In the past,the lightning strike risk assessment of wind farms mainly referred to the Lightning Protection Part 2:Risk Management(IEC 62305-2-2010)and the Lightning Protection of Wind Energy System(IEC 61400-24-2019)b...In the past,the lightning strike risk assessment of wind farms mainly referred to the Lightning Protection Part 2:Risk Management(IEC 62305-2-2010)and the Lightning Protection of Wind Energy System(IEC 61400-24-2019)based on protection angle method.In fact,the basic idea of the two is the same,that is,the source of the lightning fan is replaced by S1-S4 of the former lightning building with the latter ND-NDJ.According to the above method of wind farm evaluation,it has been proved that the practice can not achieve good results.Taking offshore wind farm as an example,this paper introduces a new method of establishing six evaluation indicators to determine the risk level according to the new technology and compliance principle of regional lightning protection(semi-circular method),which can be used for reference by wind farm technicians.展开更多
0 INTRODUCTION In recent years,modern railways have been actively under construction in the complex mountainous area of Southwest China.However,rockfall poses a significant threat to both construction and operation ph...0 INTRODUCTION In recent years,modern railways have been actively under construction in the complex mountainous area of Southwest China.However,rockfall poses a significant threat to both construction and operation phases of railway projects(Yan et al.,2023;Chen et al.,2022;Fanos and Pradhan,2018).展开更多
This article aims to enhance seismic hazard assessment methods for Kazakhstan’s seismotectonic conditions.It combines probabilistic seismic hazard analysis(PSHA),ground motion simulation,sitespecific geological and g...This article aims to enhance seismic hazard assessment methods for Kazakhstan’s seismotectonic conditions.It combines probabilistic seismic hazard analysis(PSHA),ground motion simulation,sitespecific geological and geotechnical data analysis,and seismic scenario analysis to develop Probabilistic General Seismic Zoning(GSZ)maps for Kazakhstan and Probabilistic Seismic Microzoning maps for Almaty.These maps align with Eurocode 8 principles,incorporating seismic intensity and engineering parameters like peak ground acceleration(PGA).The new procedure,applied in national projects,has resulted in GSZ maps for the country,seismic microzoning maps for Almaty,and detailed seismic zoning maps for East Kazakhstan.These maps,part of a regulatory document,guide earthquake-resistant design and construction.They offer a comprehensive assessment of seismic hazards,integrating traditional Medvedev-Sponheuer-Karnik(MSK-64)intensity scale points with quantitative parameters like peak ground acceleration.This innovative approach promises to advance methods for quantifying seismic hazards in specific regions.展开更多
[Objective] The study was to explore the major factors affecting diary cattle brucellosis risk assessment,as well as their strong-to-weak sequence,so as to provide theoretical basis for assessing diary cattle brucello...[Objective] The study was to explore the major factors affecting diary cattle brucellosis risk assessment,as well as their strong-to-weak sequence,so as to provide theoretical basis for assessing diary cattle brucellosis risk level in different regions.[Method] From 4 dimensions of feeding and importing,breeding,housing and polyculture situation,an evaluation index system was set up,and diary cattle brucellosis risk survey was conducted in 3 typical regions.Finally,systematic multilevel grey relation entropy method was applied to perform data analysis.[Result] The strong-to-weak sequence of Level 1 impact factor of diary cattle brucellosis was as follows：feeding and importinghousingpolyculture situationbreeding;the sequence of Level 2 impact factor was U32〉U12〉U11〉U31〉U21〉U42〉U43〉U23〉U22〉U41;the risk level sequence of 3 typical regions was Province A（County A1,A2,A3）Province B（County B1,B2,B3）Province C（County C1,C2,C3）.[Conclusion] According to the weight of Level 1 index strata,administrative departments at all levels and dairy cattle farmers should lay emphasis on the aspects of feeding,importing and housing;viewed from the perspective of Level 2 index strata,dairy cattle farmers should value the siting of cattle field,the brucellosis surveillance before importing and milking modes most.According to the diary cattle brucellosis risk level of 3 typical regions,if administrative departments at all levels strengthen peoples＇ awareness of their personal health and increase investment in this area,with new healthy cultured atmosphere built,the risk level of diary cattle brucellosis will surly decline.展开更多
As the air combat environment becomes more complicated and changeable, accurate threat assessment of air target has a significant impact on air defense operations. This paper proposes an improved generalized intuition...As the air combat environment becomes more complicated and changeable, accurate threat assessment of air target has a significant impact on air defense operations. This paper proposes an improved generalized intuitionistic fuzzy soft set (GIFSS) method for dynamic assessment of air target threat. Firstly, the threat assessment index is reasonably determined by analyzing the typical characteristics of air targets. Secondly, after the GIFSS at different time is obtained, the index weight is determined by the intuitionistic fuzzy set entropy and the relative entropy theory. Then, the inverse Poisson distribution method is used to determine the weight of time series, and then the time-weighted GIFSS is obtained. Finally, threat assessment of five air targets is carried out by using the improved GIFSS (I-GIFSS) and comparison methods. The validity and superiority of the proposed method are verified by calculation and comparison.展开更多
Four assessment methods （two pollution indexes and two fuzzy mathematical models） were employed to investigate the environmental quality of four soils around a ferroalloy plant in Nanjing City. Environmental quality...Four assessment methods （two pollution indexes and two fuzzy mathematical models） were employed to investigate the environmental quality of four soils around a ferroalloy plant in Nanjing City. Environmental quality was assessed as class Ⅳ （moderately polluted） for each soil with single-factor index method, and was identified to be classes Ⅳ, Ⅲ （slightly polluted）, Ⅲ, and Ⅲ for soils A, B, C, and D, respectively, with the comprehensive index model. In comparison with the single-factor index method, the comprehensive index model concerned both dominant parameter and average contribution of all factors to the integrated environmental quality. Using the two fuzzy mathematical methods （single-factor deciding and weighted average models）, the environmental risks were determined to be classes Ⅳ, Ⅲ, Ⅱ （clean）, and Ⅱ for soils A, B, C, and D, respectively. However, divergence of the membership degree to each pollution class still occurred between the two methods. In fuzzy mathematical methods, membership functions were used to describe the limits between different pollution degrees, and different weights were allocated for the factors according to pollution contribution. Introduction of membership degree and weight of each factor to fuzzy mathematical models made the methods more reasonable in the field of environmental risk assessment.展开更多
Traditional occupational disease control and prevention has remained prevalent in China over recent decades. There are appropriately 30,000 new case reports of occupational diseases annually. Although China has alread...Traditional occupational disease control and prevention has remained prevalent in China over recent decades. There are appropriately 30,000 new case reports of occupational diseases annually. Although China has already established a series of occupational disease prevention programs, occupational health risk assessment （OHRA） strategies continue to be a limitation.展开更多
The core of network security is the risk assessment. In this letter,a risk assessment method is introduced to estimate the wireless network security. The method,which combines Analytic Hier-archy Process (AHP) method ...The core of network security is the risk assessment. In this letter,a risk assessment method is introduced to estimate the wireless network security. The method,which combines Analytic Hier-archy Process (AHP) method and fuzzy logical method,is applied to the risk assessment. Fuzzy logical method is applied to judge the important degree of each factor in the aspects of the probability,the influence and the uncontrollability,not to directly judge the important degree itself. The risk as-sessment is carved up 3 layers applying AHP method,the sort weight of the third layer is calculated by fuzzy logical method. Finally,the important degree is calculated by AHP method. By comparing the important degree of each factor,the risk which can be controlled by taking measures is known. The study of the case shows that the method can be easily used to the risk assessment of the wireless network security and its results conform to the actual situation.展开更多
It is widely recognized that assessments of the status of data-poor fish stocks are challenging and that Bayesian analysis is one of the methods which can be used to improve the reliability of stock assessments in dat...It is widely recognized that assessments of the status of data-poor fish stocks are challenging and that Bayesian analysis is one of the methods which can be used to improve the reliability of stock assessments in data-poor situations through borrowing strength from prior information deduced from species with good-quality data or other known information. Because there is considerable uncertainty remaining in the stock assessment of albacore tuna（Thunnus alalunga） in the Indian Ocean due to the limited and low-quality data, we investigate the advantages of a Bayesian method in data-poor stock assessment by using Indian Ocean albacore stock assessment as an example. Eight Bayesian biomass dynamics models with different prior assumptions and catch data series were developed to assess the stock. The results show（1） the rationality of choice of catch data series and assumption of parameters could be enhanced by analyzing the posterior distribution of the parameters;（2） the reliability of the stock assessment could be improved by using demographic methods to construct a prior for the intrinsic rate of increase（r）. Because we can make use of more information to improve the rationality of parameter estimation and the reliability of the stock assessment compared with traditional statistical methods by incorporating any available knowledge into the informative priors and analyzing the posterior distribution based on Bayesian framework in data-poor situations, we suggest that the Bayesian method should be an alternative method to be applied in data-poor species stock assessment, such as Indian Ocean albacore.展开更多
Liquid storage tanks are essential structures that are often located in residential and industrial areas; thus an assessment of their seismic performance is an important engineering issue. In this paper, the seismic r...Liquid storage tanks are essential structures that are often located in residential and industrial areas; thus an assessment of their seismic performance is an important engineering issue. In this paper, the seismic response ofunanchored steel liquid storage tanks is investigated using the endurance time （ET） dynamic analysis procedure and compared to responses obtained for anchored tanks under actual ground motions and intensifying ET records. In most cases, the results from ground motions are properly obtained with negligible differences using ET records. It is observed that uplifting of the tank base, which is closely related to the tank aspect ratio, has the greatest significance in the responses of the tank and can be predicted with reasonable accuracy by using currently available ET records.展开更多
Hazard factors, hazard-bearling objects, disaster-developing environment, and disaster-preventing capability play key roles in the formation of Tropical Cyclone （TC） disasters. Of all of these, the most important is...Hazard factors, hazard-bearling objects, disaster-developing environment, and disaster-preventing capability play key roles in the formation of Tropical Cyclone （TC） disasters. Of all of these, the most important is the intensity of hazard factors （risk sources）. In this study, this intensity is uniformly defined by the probability of hazard factors; then a relationship is established between disaster risk intensity and hazard factors. The exceedance probability of various hazard factors, including frequency and timing, scope of wind and rain, and maximum wind and rain of impacting TC cases, are calculated using data from TCs that impacted Shanghai fi＇om 1959-2006. The relationship between disaster situation and risk probability of hazard factors is analyzed, and the indices and model of TC disaster assessment are established based on the results. The process maximum wind speed and maximum daily precipitation are very important in TC-related disaster formation in Shanghai. The results of disaster indices coordinate with the results of the assessment model, and both can show the extent of probability of a TC disaster. Tests using TC data in 2007 and 2008 show that disasters caused by TC Krosa （0716） would be more serious than those by TC Wipha （0713）, and that TC Fung Wong （0808） would have a weak impact. Real-life situations validate these results.展开更多
The average risk indices,such as the loss of load expectation(LOLE)and expected demand not supplied(EDNS),have been widely used in risk assessment of power systems.However,the average indices can't distinguish bet...The average risk indices,such as the loss of load expectation(LOLE)and expected demand not supplied(EDNS),have been widely used in risk assessment of power systems.However,the average indices can't distinguish between the events of low probability but high damage and the events of high probability but low damage.In order to ov+rcome these shortcomings,this paper proposes an extended risk analysis framework for the power system based on the partitioned multi-objective risk method(PMRM).展开更多
The exploitation status of wind energy resources was analyzed, and the distribution of wind energy resources and regional meteorological stations were introduced, and then the assessment method of wind energy resource...The exploitation status of wind energy resources was analyzed, and the distribution of wind energy resources and regional meteorological stations were introduced, and then the assessment method of wind energy resources by using data from regional meteorological station was studied taking Huangjin Regional Meteorological Station in Xinning County in Hunan Province for example, besides, corresponding software was compiled. By means of SQL database and program, the method was used simply and easily and had positive meaning for the development of wind energy resources and excavation of wind farm in inland region.展开更多
Assessment of acid sulfate soil risk is an important step for acid sulfate soil management and its reliability depends very much on the suitability and accuracy of various analytical methods for estimating sulfide-der...Assessment of acid sulfate soil risk is an important step for acid sulfate soil management and its reliability depends very much on the suitability and accuracy of various analytical methods for estimating sulfide-derived potential acidity, actual acidity and acid-neutralizing capacity in acid sulfate soils. This paper critically reviews various analytical methods that are currently used for determination of the above parameters, as well as their implications for environmental risk assessment of acid sulfate soi1s.展开更多
Fatigue strength assessment of a horizontal axis wind turbine(HAWT)composite blade is considered.Fatigue load cases are identified,and loads are calculated by the GH Bladed software which is specified at the IEC61400 ...Fatigue strength assessment of a horizontal axis wind turbine(HAWT)composite blade is considered.Fatigue load cases are identified,and loads are calculated by the GH Bladed software which is specified at the IEC61400 international specification and GL(Germanisher Lloyd)regulations for the wind energy conversion system.Stress analysis is performed with a 3-D finite element method(FEM).Considering Saint-Venant′s principle,a uniform cross section FEM model is built at each critical zone.Stress transformation matrixes(STM)are set up by applied six unit load components on the FEM model separately.STM can be used to convert the external load into stresses in the linear elastic range.The main material of composite wind turbine blade is fiber reinforced plastics(FRP).In order to evaluate the degree of fatigue damage of FRP,the stresses of fiber direction are extracted and the well-known strength criterion-Puck theory is used.The total fatigue damage of each laminate on the critical point is counted by the rain-flow counting method and Miner′s damage law based on general S-N curves.Several sections of a 45.3mblade of a 2 MW wind turbine are studied using the fatigue evaluation method.The performance of this method is compared with far more costly business software FOCUS.The results show that the fatigue damage of multi-axis FRP can be assessed conveniently by the FEM-STM method.And the proposed method gives a reliable and efficient method to analyze the fatigue damage of slender composite structure with variable cross-sections.展开更多
Monte-Carlo method is used for estimating coalbed methane （CBM） resources in key coal mining areas of China. Monte-Carlo method is shown to be superior to the traditional volumetric method with constant parameters i...Monte-Carlo method is used for estimating coalbed methane （CBM） resources in key coal mining areas of China. Monte-Carlo method is shown to be superior to the traditional volumetric method with constant parameters in the calculation of CBM resources. The focus of the article is to introduce the main algorithm and the realization of functions estimated by Monte-Carlo method, including selection of parameters, determination of distribution function, generation of pseudo-random numbers, and evaluation of the parameters corresponding to pseudo-random numbers. A specified software on the basis of Monte-Carlo method is developed using Visual C＋＋ for the assessment of the CBM resources. A case study shows that calculation results using Monte-Carlo method have smaller error range in comparison with those using volumetric method.展开更多
In recent years,the ecological environment along highways in Tibetan Plateau has been severely affected due to the rapid construction of highways.In order to solve the problems of multiple indicators and inconsistent ...In recent years,the ecological environment along highways in Tibetan Plateau has been severely affected due to the rapid construction of highways.In order to solve the problems of multiple indicators and inconsistent criteria in the ecological impact assessment of highways,and to scientifically screen assessment indicators,the paper proposes a multi-round indicator screening method,which combines literature analysis,expert rating,and statistical analysis.Based on this screening method,normalized difference vegetation index,land surface temperature,elevation,and normalized difference soil index are screened out.Combined with multiple linear regression,an ecological impact assessment model is established and applied to ecological impact assessment of Gonghe-Yushu Expressway.The results show that the expressway construction is the first driving force for the deterioration of the ecological environment along the roadside,and its interference range on the desert grassland ecosystem is greater than that on the agroforestry system.The ecological environment within 150 m on both sides of the expressway should be protected.展开更多
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2023YFC3805003)。
文摘To quantify the seismic resilience of buildings,a method for evaluating functional loss from the component level to the overall building is proposed,and the dual-parameter seismic resilience assessment method based on postearthquake loss and recovery time is improved.A threelevel function tree model is established,which can consider the dynamic changes in weight coefficients of different category of components relative to their functional losses.Bayesian networks are utilized to quantify the impact of weather conditions,construction technology levels,and worker skill levels on component repair time.A method for determining the real-time functional recovery curve of buildings based on the component repair process is proposed.Taking a three-story teaching building as an example,the seismic resilience indices under basic earthquakes and rare earthquakes are calculated.The results show that the seismic resilience grade of the teaching building is comprehensively judged as GradeⅢ,and its resilience grade is more significantly affected by postearthquake loss.The proposed method can be used to predict the seismic resilience of buildings prior to earthquakes,identify weak components within buildings,and provide guidance for taking measures to enhance the seismic resilience of buildings.
基金Key Project of Educational Science of China Association for Transportation Education and Research(Class B)(JT2024ZD077)。
文摘This paper deeply analyzes the characteristics of core courses of the traffic engineering specialty and the problems existing in traditional assessment methods,and proposes a series of reform measures for the assessment methods of core courses of the traffic engineering specialty.By introducing diversified assessment methods,focusing on process assessment,and strengthening the assessment of practical abilities,the aim is to improve students’learning enthusiasm and initiative,and cultivate students’innovation ability and practical ability to meet the needs of traffic engineering professionals in the new era.
基金Supported by Research on Key Technologies of Lightning Intelligent Protection System for Guangdong Energy Hehe Sea Wind Farm(SFC/QZW-ZX-XF-24-020).
文摘In the past,the lightning strike risk assessment of wind farms mainly referred to the Lightning Protection Part 2:Risk Management(IEC 62305-2-2010)and the Lightning Protection of Wind Energy System(IEC 61400-24-2019)based on protection angle method.In fact,the basic idea of the two is the same,that is,the source of the lightning fan is replaced by S1-S4 of the former lightning building with the latter ND-NDJ.According to the above method of wind farm evaluation,it has been proved that the practice can not achieve good results.Taking offshore wind farm as an example,this paper introduces a new method of establishing six evaluation indicators to determine the risk level according to the new technology and compliance principle of regional lightning protection(semi-circular method),which can be used for reference by wind farm technicians.
基金supported by the Open Research Fund of Key Laboratory of Geological Hazards on Three Gorges Reservoir Area(China Three Gorges University),Ministry of Education(No.2022KDZ03)the Science and Technology Projects of Yunnan Provincial Science and Technology Department(No.202401AT070328)+1 种基金the Young talents project of“Xingdian Talent Support Program”in Yunnan Province(No.YNWR-QNBJ-2020-019)the Fund Project of China Academy of Railway Sciences Co.,Ltd.(No.2021YJ178)。
文摘0 INTRODUCTION In recent years,modern railways have been actively under construction in the complex mountainous area of Southwest China.However,rockfall poses a significant threat to both construction and operation phases of railway projects(Yan et al.,2023;Chen et al.,2022;Fanos and Pradhan,2018).
基金The work was carried out in the framework of earmarked funding“Assessment of seismic hazard of territories of Kazakhstan on modern scientific and methodological basis”,programme code number F.0980.Source of funding-Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
文摘This article aims to enhance seismic hazard assessment methods for Kazakhstan’s seismotectonic conditions.It combines probabilistic seismic hazard analysis(PSHA),ground motion simulation,sitespecific geological and geotechnical data analysis,and seismic scenario analysis to develop Probabilistic General Seismic Zoning(GSZ)maps for Kazakhstan and Probabilistic Seismic Microzoning maps for Almaty.These maps align with Eurocode 8 principles,incorporating seismic intensity and engineering parameters like peak ground acceleration(PGA).The new procedure,applied in national projects,has resulted in GSZ maps for the country,seismic microzoning maps for Almaty,and detailed seismic zoning maps for East Kazakhstan.These maps,part of a regulatory document,guide earthquake-resistant design and construction.They offer a comprehensive assessment of seismic hazards,integrating traditional Medvedev-Sponheuer-Karnik(MSK-64)intensity scale points with quantitative parameters like peak ground acceleration.This innovative approach promises to advance methods for quantifying seismic hazards in specific regions.
基金Supported by Special Research Fund for Public Sector(Agriculture)(200903055)~~
文摘[Objective] The study was to explore the major factors affecting diary cattle brucellosis risk assessment,as well as their strong-to-weak sequence,so as to provide theoretical basis for assessing diary cattle brucellosis risk level in different regions.[Method] From 4 dimensions of feeding and importing,breeding,housing and polyculture situation,an evaluation index system was set up,and diary cattle brucellosis risk survey was conducted in 3 typical regions.Finally,systematic multilevel grey relation entropy method was applied to perform data analysis.[Result] The strong-to-weak sequence of Level 1 impact factor of diary cattle brucellosis was as follows：feeding and importinghousingpolyculture situationbreeding;the sequence of Level 2 impact factor was U32〉U12〉U11〉U31〉U21〉U42〉U43〉U23〉U22〉U41;the risk level sequence of 3 typical regions was Province A（County A1,A2,A3）Province B（County B1,B2,B3）Province C（County C1,C2,C3）.[Conclusion] According to the weight of Level 1 index strata,administrative departments at all levels and dairy cattle farmers should lay emphasis on the aspects of feeding,importing and housing;viewed from the perspective of Level 2 index strata,dairy cattle farmers should value the siting of cattle field,the brucellosis surveillance before importing and milking modes most.According to the diary cattle brucellosis risk level of 3 typical regions,if administrative departments at all levels strengthen peoples＇ awareness of their personal health and increase investment in this area,with new healthy cultured atmosphere built,the risk level of diary cattle brucellosis will surly decline.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51779263)
文摘As the air combat environment becomes more complicated and changeable, accurate threat assessment of air target has a significant impact on air defense operations. This paper proposes an improved generalized intuitionistic fuzzy soft set (GIFSS) method for dynamic assessment of air target threat. Firstly, the threat assessment index is reasonably determined by analyzing the typical characteristics of air targets. Secondly, after the GIFSS at different time is obtained, the index weight is determined by the intuitionistic fuzzy set entropy and the relative entropy theory. Then, the inverse Poisson distribution method is used to determine the weight of time series, and then the time-weighted GIFSS is obtained. Finally, threat assessment of five air targets is carried out by using the improved GIFSS (I-GIFSS) and comparison methods. The validity and superiority of the proposed method are verified by calculation and comparison.
基金the PhD Fund of the National Education Ministry of China (No20030284038)the Interna-tional Foundation for Science (NoW/4215)
文摘Four assessment methods （two pollution indexes and two fuzzy mathematical models） were employed to investigate the environmental quality of four soils around a ferroalloy plant in Nanjing City. Environmental quality was assessed as class Ⅳ （moderately polluted） for each soil with single-factor index method, and was identified to be classes Ⅳ, Ⅲ （slightly polluted）, Ⅲ, and Ⅲ for soils A, B, C, and D, respectively, with the comprehensive index model. In comparison with the single-factor index method, the comprehensive index model concerned both dominant parameter and average contribution of all factors to the integrated environmental quality. Using the two fuzzy mathematical methods （single-factor deciding and weighted average models）, the environmental risks were determined to be classes Ⅳ, Ⅲ, Ⅱ （clean）, and Ⅱ for soils A, B, C, and D, respectively. However, divergence of the membership degree to each pollution class still occurred between the two methods. In fuzzy mathematical methods, membership functions were used to describe the limits between different pollution degrees, and different weights were allocated for the factors according to pollution contribution. Introduction of membership degree and weight of each factor to fuzzy mathematical models made the methods more reasonable in the field of environmental risk assessment.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(81472961)the Joint Projects of the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China and the Health Bureau of Zhejiang Province(No.WSK 2014-2-004)the Zhejiang Provincial Program for the Cultivation of High-Level Innovative Health Talents
文摘Traditional occupational disease control and prevention has remained prevalent in China over recent decades. There are appropriately 30,000 new case reports of occupational diseases annually. Although China has already established a series of occupational disease prevention programs, occupational health risk assessment （OHRA） strategies continue to be a limitation.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.60573036).
文摘The core of network security is the risk assessment. In this letter,a risk assessment method is introduced to estimate the wireless network security. The method,which combines Analytic Hier-archy Process (AHP) method and fuzzy logical method,is applied to the risk assessment. Fuzzy logical method is applied to judge the important degree of each factor in the aspects of the probability,the influence and the uncontrollability,not to directly judge the important degree itself. The risk as-sessment is carved up 3 layers applying AHP method,the sort weight of the third layer is calculated by fuzzy logical method. Finally,the important degree is calculated by AHP method. By comparing the important degree of each factor,the risk which can be controlled by taking measures is known. The study of the case shows that the method can be easily used to the risk assessment of the wireless network security and its results conform to the actual situation.
基金The Innovation Program of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission under contract No.14ZZ147the Opening Project of Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources(Shanghai Ocean University),Ministry of Education under contract No.A1-0209-15-0503-1
文摘It is widely recognized that assessments of the status of data-poor fish stocks are challenging and that Bayesian analysis is one of the methods which can be used to improve the reliability of stock assessments in data-poor situations through borrowing strength from prior information deduced from species with good-quality data or other known information. Because there is considerable uncertainty remaining in the stock assessment of albacore tuna（Thunnus alalunga） in the Indian Ocean due to the limited and low-quality data, we investigate the advantages of a Bayesian method in data-poor stock assessment by using Indian Ocean albacore stock assessment as an example. Eight Bayesian biomass dynamics models with different prior assumptions and catch data series were developed to assess the stock. The results show（1） the rationality of choice of catch data series and assumption of parameters could be enhanced by analyzing the posterior distribution of the parameters;（2） the reliability of the stock assessment could be improved by using demographic methods to construct a prior for the intrinsic rate of increase（r）. Because we can make use of more information to improve the rationality of parameter estimation and the reliability of the stock assessment compared with traditional statistical methods by incorporating any available knowledge into the informative priors and analyzing the posterior distribution based on Bayesian framework in data-poor situations, we suggest that the Bayesian method should be an alternative method to be applied in data-poor species stock assessment, such as Indian Ocean albacore.
文摘Liquid storage tanks are essential structures that are often located in residential and industrial areas; thus an assessment of their seismic performance is an important engineering issue. In this paper, the seismic response ofunanchored steel liquid storage tanks is investigated using the endurance time （ET） dynamic analysis procedure and compared to responses obtained for anchored tanks under actual ground motions and intensifying ET records. In most cases, the results from ground motions are properly obtained with negligible differences using ET records. It is observed that uplifting of the tank base, which is closely related to the tank aspect ratio, has the greatest significance in the responses of the tank and can be predicted with reasonable accuracy by using currently available ET records.
基金National Basic Research Program of China or 973 Program (2009CB421505)Shanghai Key Agricultural Projects (Hu Nong Ke 2006-4-10)
文摘Hazard factors, hazard-bearling objects, disaster-developing environment, and disaster-preventing capability play key roles in the formation of Tropical Cyclone （TC） disasters. Of all of these, the most important is the intensity of hazard factors （risk sources）. In this study, this intensity is uniformly defined by the probability of hazard factors; then a relationship is established between disaster risk intensity and hazard factors. The exceedance probability of various hazard factors, including frequency and timing, scope of wind and rain, and maximum wind and rain of impacting TC cases, are calculated using data from TCs that impacted Shanghai fi＇om 1959-2006. The relationship between disaster situation and risk probability of hazard factors is analyzed, and the indices and model of TC disaster assessment are established based on the results. The process maximum wind speed and maximum daily precipitation are very important in TC-related disaster formation in Shanghai. The results of disaster indices coordinate with the results of the assessment model, and both can show the extent of probability of a TC disaster. Tests using TC data in 2007 and 2008 show that disasters caused by TC Krosa （0716） would be more serious than those by TC Wipha （0713）, and that TC Fung Wong （0808） would have a weak impact. Real-life situations validate these results.
文摘The average risk indices,such as the loss of load expectation(LOLE)and expected demand not supplied(EDNS),have been widely used in risk assessment of power systems.However,the average indices can't distinguish between the events of low probability but high damage and the events of high probability but low damage.In order to ov+rcome these shortcomings,this paper proposes an extended risk analysis framework for the power system based on the partitioned multi-objective risk method(PMRM).
文摘The exploitation status of wind energy resources was analyzed, and the distribution of wind energy resources and regional meteorological stations were introduced, and then the assessment method of wind energy resources by using data from regional meteorological station was studied taking Huangjin Regional Meteorological Station in Xinning County in Hunan Province for example, besides, corresponding software was compiled. By means of SQL database and program, the method was used simply and easily and had positive meaning for the development of wind energy resources and excavation of wind farm in inland region.
文摘Assessment of acid sulfate soil risk is an important step for acid sulfate soil management and its reliability depends very much on the suitability and accuracy of various analytical methods for estimating sulfide-derived potential acidity, actual acidity and acid-neutralizing capacity in acid sulfate soils. This paper critically reviews various analytical methods that are currently used for determination of the above parameters, as well as their implications for environmental risk assessment of acid sulfate soi1s.
基金supported jointly by the National Basic Research Program of China(″973″Program)(No.2014CB046200)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.BK2014059)+1 种基金the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutionsthe National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.11172135)
文摘Fatigue strength assessment of a horizontal axis wind turbine(HAWT)composite blade is considered.Fatigue load cases are identified,and loads are calculated by the GH Bladed software which is specified at the IEC61400 international specification and GL(Germanisher Lloyd)regulations for the wind energy conversion system.Stress analysis is performed with a 3-D finite element method(FEM).Considering Saint-Venant′s principle,a uniform cross section FEM model is built at each critical zone.Stress transformation matrixes(STM)are set up by applied six unit load components on the FEM model separately.STM can be used to convert the external load into stresses in the linear elastic range.The main material of composite wind turbine blade is fiber reinforced plastics(FRP).In order to evaluate the degree of fatigue damage of FRP,the stresses of fiber direction are extracted and the well-known strength criterion-Puck theory is used.The total fatigue damage of each laminate on the critical point is counted by the rain-flow counting method and Miner′s damage law based on general S-N curves.Several sections of a 45.3mblade of a 2 MW wind turbine are studied using the fatigue evaluation method.The performance of this method is compared with far more costly business software FOCUS.The results show that the fatigue damage of multi-axis FRP can be assessed conveniently by the FEM-STM method.And the proposed method gives a reliable and efficient method to analyze the fatigue damage of slender composite structure with variable cross-sections.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40730422)the Foundation of China University of Mining & Technology (No. OF061003)State Key Laboratory of Geological Processes and Mineral Resources (No. GPMR2007-11)
文摘Monte-Carlo method is used for estimating coalbed methane （CBM） resources in key coal mining areas of China. Monte-Carlo method is shown to be superior to the traditional volumetric method with constant parameters in the calculation of CBM resources. The focus of the article is to introduce the main algorithm and the realization of functions estimated by Monte-Carlo method, including selection of parameters, determination of distribution function, generation of pseudo-random numbers, and evaluation of the parameters corresponding to pseudo-random numbers. A specified software on the basis of Monte-Carlo method is developed using Visual C＋＋ for the assessment of the CBM resources. A case study shows that calculation results using Monte-Carlo method have smaller error range in comparison with those using volumetric method.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(No.41801387)。
文摘In recent years,the ecological environment along highways in Tibetan Plateau has been severely affected due to the rapid construction of highways.In order to solve the problems of multiple indicators and inconsistent criteria in the ecological impact assessment of highways,and to scientifically screen assessment indicators,the paper proposes a multi-round indicator screening method,which combines literature analysis,expert rating,and statistical analysis.Based on this screening method,normalized difference vegetation index,land surface temperature,elevation,and normalized difference soil index are screened out.Combined with multiple linear regression,an ecological impact assessment model is established and applied to ecological impact assessment of Gonghe-Yushu Expressway.The results show that the expressway construction is the first driving force for the deterioration of the ecological environment along the roadside,and its interference range on the desert grassland ecosystem is greater than that on the agroforestry system.The ecological environment within 150 m on both sides of the expressway should be protected.
