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Modeling and analysis of maneuver laws based on higher order multi-resolution dynamic mode decomposition for hypersonic glide vehicles
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作者 Zichu Liu Yudong Hu +2 位作者 Changsheng Gao Wuxing Jing Xudong Ji 《Defence Technology(防务技术)》 2025年第6期34-47,共14页
The precise characterization of hypersonic glide vehicle(HGV) maneuver laws in complex flight scenarios still faces challenges. Non-stationary changes in flight state due to abrupt changes in maneuver modes place high... The precise characterization of hypersonic glide vehicle(HGV) maneuver laws in complex flight scenarios still faces challenges. Non-stationary changes in flight state due to abrupt changes in maneuver modes place high demands on the accuracy of modeling methods. To address this issue, a novel maneuver laws modeling and analysis method based on higher order multi-resolution dynamic mode decomposition(HMDMD) is proposed in this work. A joint time-space-frequency decomposition of the vehicle's state sequence in the complex flight scenario is achieved with the higher order Koopman assumption and standard multi-resolution dynamic mode decomposition, and an approximate dynamic model is established. The maneuver laws can be reconstructed and analyzed with extracted multi-scale spatiotemporal modes with clear physical meaning. Based on the dynamic model of HGV, two flight scenarios are established with constant angle of attack and complex maneuver laws, respectively. Simulation results demonstrate that the maneuver laws obtained using the HMDMD method are highly consistent with those derived from the real dynamic model, the modeling accuracy is better than other common modeling methods, and the method has strong interpretability. 展开更多
关键词 Hypersonic glide vehicle Dynamic mode decomposition Higher order koopman assumption Manoeuvre law modeling INTERPRETABILITY
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Kinetic model for calcium sulfate decomposition at high temperature 被引量:10
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作者 闫志强 王泽安 +2 位作者 王小锋 刘豪 邱建荣 《Transactions of Nonferrous Metals Society of China》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2015年第10期3490-3497,共8页
A modified shrinking unreacted-core model,based on thermogravimetric analysis,was developed to investigate CaSO4 decomposition in oxy-fuel combustion,especially under isothermal condition which is difficult to achieve... A modified shrinking unreacted-core model,based on thermogravimetric analysis,was developed to investigate CaSO4 decomposition in oxy-fuel combustion,especially under isothermal condition which is difficult to achieve in actual experiments due to high-temperature corrosion.A method was proposed to calculate the reaction rate constant for CaSO4 decomposition.Meanwhile,the diffusion of SO2 and O2,and the sintering of CaO were fully considered during the development of model.The results indicate that the model can precisely predict the decomposition of CaSO4 under high SO2 concentration(1100×10-6).Concentrations of SO2 and O2 on the unreacted-core surface were found to increase first and then decrease with increasing temperature,and the average specific surface area and porosity of each CaO sintering layer decreased with increasing time.The increase of SO2 and/or O2 concentration inhibited CaSO4 decomposition.Moreover,the kinetics of CaSO4 decomposition had obvious dependence on temperature and the decomposition rate can be dramatically accelerated with increasing temperature. 展开更多
关键词 oxy-fuel combustion shrinking unreacted-core model CASO4 decomposition CaO sintering
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Recursive State-space Model Identification of Non-uniformly Sampled Systems Using Singular Value Decomposition 被引量:2
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作者 王宏伟 刘涛 《Chinese Journal of Chemical Engineering》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2014年第Z1期1268-1273,共6页
In this paper a recursive state-space model identification method is proposed for non-uniformly sampled systems in industrial applications. Two cases for measuring all states and only output(s) of such a system are co... In this paper a recursive state-space model identification method is proposed for non-uniformly sampled systems in industrial applications. Two cases for measuring all states and only output(s) of such a system are considered for identification. In the case of state measurement, an identification algorithm based on the singular value decomposition(SVD) is developed to estimate the model parameter matrices by using the least-squares fitting. In the case of output measurement only, another identification algorithm is given by combining the SVD approach with a hierarchical identification strategy. An example is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed identification method. 展开更多
关键词 Non-uniformly sampling system STATE-SPACE model IDENTIFICATION SINGULAR value decomposition RECURSIVE algorithm
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A hybrid decomposition-boosting model for short-term multi-step solar radiation forecasting with NARX neural network 被引量:4
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作者 HUANG Jia-hao LIU Hui 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2021年第2期507-526,共20页
Due to global energy depletion,solar energy technology has been widely used in the world.The output power of the solar energy systems is affected by solar radiation.Accurate short-term forecasting of solar radiation c... Due to global energy depletion,solar energy technology has been widely used in the world.The output power of the solar energy systems is affected by solar radiation.Accurate short-term forecasting of solar radiation can ensure the safety of photovoltaic grids and improve the utilization efficiency of the solar energy systems.In the study,a new decomposition-boosting model using artificial intelligence is proposed to realize the solar radiation multi-step prediction.The proposed model includes four parts:signal decomposition(EWT),neural network(NARX),Adaboost and ARIMA.Three real solar radiation datasets from Changde,China were used to validate the efficiency of the proposed model.To verify the robustness of the multi-step prediction model,this experiment compared nine models and made 1,3,and 5 steps ahead predictions for the time series.It is verified that the proposed model has the best performance among all models. 展开更多
关键词 solar radiation forecasting multi-step forecasting smart hybrid model signal decomposition
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Model reduction for supersonic cavity flow using proper orthogonal decomposition(POD)and Galerkin projection 被引量:2
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作者 Chao ZHANG Zhenhua WAN Dejun SUN 《Applied Mathematics and Mechanics(English Edition)》 SCIE EI CSCD 2017年第5期723-736,共14页
The reduced-order model (ROM) for the two-dimensional supersonic cavity flow based on proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) and Galerkin projection is investigated. Presently, popular ROMs in cavity flows are base... The reduced-order model (ROM) for the two-dimensional supersonic cavity flow based on proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) and Galerkin projection is investigated. Presently, popular ROMs in cavity flows are based on an isentropic assumption, valid only for flows at low or moderate Mach numbers. A new ROM is constructed involving primitive variables of the fully compressible Navier-Stokes (N-S) equations, which is suitable for flows at high Mach numbers. Compared with the direct numerical simulation (DNS) results, the proposed model predicts flow dynamics (e.g., dominant frequency and amplitude) accurately for supersonic cavity flows, and is robust. The comparison between the present transient flow fields and those of the DNS shows that the proposed ROM can capture self-sustained oscillations of a shear layer. In addition, the present model reduction method can be easily extended to other supersonic flows. 展开更多
关键词 supersonic cavity flow reduced-order model (ROM) proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) Galerkin projection
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Adaptive polarimetric decomposition using incoherent ground scattering models without reflection symmetry assumption 被引量:2
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作者 Xiaoguang CHENG Wenli HUANG Jianya GONG 《Geo-Spatial Information Science》 SCIE EI CSCD 2015年第1期1-10,共10页
Most of the current incoherent polarimetric decompositions employ coherent models to describe ground scattering;however,this cannot truly reflect the fact especially in natural ground surfaces.This paper proposes a hi... Most of the current incoherent polarimetric decompositions employ coherent models to describe ground scattering;however,this cannot truly reflect the fact especially in natural ground surfaces.This paper proposes a highly adaptive decomposition with incoherent ground scattering models(ADIGSM).In ADIGSM,Neumann’s adaptive model is employed to describe volume scattering,and to explain cross-polarized power in remainder matrix,so that we can obtain orientation angle randomness for both volume scattering and the dominant ground scattering.The computation of volume scattering parameters is strictly constrained for non-negative eigenvalues,while the volume scattering parameters that explain the most cross-polarized power are selected.When applying ADIGSM to NASA’s UAVSAR data,the negative component powers were obtained in quite a few forest pixels.Compared with several newest decompositions,the volume scattering power is obviously lowered,especially in areas dominated by surface scattering or double bounce scattering.The orientation angle randomness of each component is reasonable as well.ADIGSM has potential to be applied in the fields such as PolSAR image classification,land cover mapping,speckle filtering,soil moisture and roughness estimation,etc. 展开更多
关键词 polarimetric synthetic aperture radar(PolSAR) polarimetric decomposition non-negative eigenvalue decomposition(NNED) scattering model
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Modified version of three-component model-based decomposition for polarimetric SAR data 被引量:1
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作者 ZHANG Shuang YU Xiangchuan WANG Lu 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2019年第2期270-277,共8页
A new hybrid Freeman/eigenvalue decomposition based on the orientation angle compensation and the various extended volume models for polarimetric synthetic aperture radar(PolSAR) data are presented. There are three st... A new hybrid Freeman/eigenvalue decomposition based on the orientation angle compensation and the various extended volume models for polarimetric synthetic aperture radar(PolSAR) data are presented. There are three steps in the novel version of the three-component model-based decomposition.Firstly, two special unitary transform matrices are applied on the coherency matrix for deorientation to decrease the correlation between the co-polarized term and the cross-polarized term.Secondly, two new conditions are proposed to distinguish the manmade structures and the nature media after the orientation angle compensation. Finally, in order to adapt to the scattering properties of different media, five different volume scattering models are used to decompose the coherency matrix. These new conditions pre-resolves man-made structures, which is beneficial to the subsequent selection of a more suitable volume scattering model.Fully PolSAR data on San Francisco are used in the experiments to prove the efficiency of the proposed hybrid Freeman/eigenvalue decomposition. 展开更多
关键词 polarimetric synthetic aperture RADAR (PolSAR) RADAR polarimetry hybrid Freeman/eigenvalue decomposition scattering model
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Establishment of a multi-cycle generalized Weng model and its application in forecasts of global oil supply 被引量:1
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作者 Yi Jin Xu Tang +2 位作者 Cui-Yang Feng Jian-Liang Wang Bao-Sheng Zhang 《Petroleum Science》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2017年第3期616-621,共6页
Low oil prices under the influence of economic structure transformation and slow economic growth have hit the existing markets of traditional big oil suppliers and upgraded the conflict of oil production capacity and ... Low oil prices under the influence of economic structure transformation and slow economic growth have hit the existing markets of traditional big oil suppliers and upgraded the conflict of oil production capacity and interest between OPEC producers and other big oil supplier countries such as the USA and Russia. Forecasting global oil production is significant for all countries for energy strategy planning, although many past forecasts have later been proved to be very seriously incorrect. In this paper,the original generalized Weng model is expanded to a multi-cycle generalized Weng model to better reflect the multi-cycle phenomena caused by political, economic and technological factors. This is used to forecast global oil production based on parameter selection from a large sample, depletion rate of remaining resources, constraints on oil reserves and cycle number determination. This research suggests that the world will reach its peak oil production in 2022, at about 4340×10~6 tonnes. China needs to plan for oil import diversity, a domestic oil production structure based on the supply pattern of large oil suppliers worldwide and the oil demand for China's own development. 展开更多
关键词 Oil production multi-cycle Generalized Weng model Energy strategy
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Hybrid Model Based on Wavelet Decomposition for Electricity Consumption Prediction 被引量:1
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作者 XIA Chenxia WANG Zilong JHONY Choon Yeong Ng 《Journal of Donghua University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2019年第1期77-87,共11页
The effective supply of electricity is the basis of ensuring economic development and people's normal life. It is difficult to store electricity, as leading to the production and consumption must be completed simu... The effective supply of electricity is the basis of ensuring economic development and people's normal life. It is difficult to store electricity, as leading to the production and consumption must be completed simultaneously. Therefore, it is of great significance to accurately predict the demand for electricity consumption for the production planning of electricity and the normal operation of the society. In this paper, a hybrid model is constructed to predict the electricity consumption in China. The structural breaks test of monthly electricity consumption in China from January 2010 to December 2016 is carried out by using the structural breaks unit root test. Based on the existence of structura breaks, the electricity consumption data are decomposed into low-frequency and high-frequency components by wavelet model, and the separated low frequency signal and high frequency signal are predicted by autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) and nonlinear autoregressive neural network(NAR), respectively. Therefore the wavelet-ARIMA-NAR hybrid model is constructed. In order to compare the effect of the hybrid model, the structural time series(STS) model is applied to predicting the electricity consumption. The results of prediction error test show that the hybrid model is more accurate for electricity consumption prediction. 展开更多
关键词 ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION forecasting WAVELET decomposition STRUCTURAL BREAKS STRUCTURAL time series(STS) model
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Reaction Rate Models for the Thermal Decomposition of Ibuprofen Crystals 被引量:2
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作者 Sundaram Ramukutty Esakki Ramachandran 《Journal of Crystallization Process and Technology》 2014年第2期71-78,共8页
Kinetics of the decomposition of racemic ibuprofen crystals were studied by non-isothermal analysis. Thermogravimetric analysis revealed that ibuprofen is thermally stable up to 152.6°C and the initial loss of ma... Kinetics of the decomposition of racemic ibuprofen crystals were studied by non-isothermal analysis. Thermogravimetric analysis revealed that ibuprofen is thermally stable up to 152.6°C and the initial loss of mass was due to evaporation only. Activation energy, pre-exponential factor, activation entropy and Gibbs free energy for the decomposition of ibuprofen were determined using the integral method of Coats-Redfern (CR). Geometrical contraction models were found to be the best fits. The Arrheinus equation for the thermal decomposition of ibuprofen is k = (1.1 × 107) e–79125/RT sec–1. 展开更多
关键词 IBUPROFEN model FITTING KINETICS decomposition Coats-Redfern Method
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Wavelet Decomposition Impacts on Traditional Forecasting Time Series Models 被引量:1
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作者 W.A.Shaikh S.F.Shah +1 位作者 S.M.Pandhiani M.A.Solangi 《Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences》 SCIE EI 2022年第3期1517-1532,共16页
This investigative study is focused on the impact of wavelet on traditional forecasting time-series models,which significantly shows the usage of wavelet algorithms.Wavelet Decomposition(WD)algorithm has been combined... This investigative study is focused on the impact of wavelet on traditional forecasting time-series models,which significantly shows the usage of wavelet algorithms.Wavelet Decomposition(WD)algorithm has been combined with various traditional forecasting time-series models,such as Least Square Support Vector Machine(LSSVM),Artificial Neural Network(ANN)and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines(MARS)and their effects are examined in terms of the statistical estimations.The WD has been used as a mathematical application in traditional forecast modelling to collect periodically measured parameters,which has yielded tremendous constructive outcomes.Further,it is observed that the wavelet combined models are classy compared to the various time series models in terms of performance basis.Therefore,combining wavelet forecasting models has yielded much better results. 展开更多
关键词 IMPACT wavelet decomposition COMBINED traditional forecasting models statistical analysis
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Decomposition mechanisms of nuclear-grade cationic exchange resin by advanced oxidation processes:Statistical molecular fragmentation model and DFT calculations 被引量:1
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作者 Xiang Meng Pierre Désesquelles Lejin Xu 《Journal of Environmental Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2024年第1期433-448,共16页
The treatment and disposal of radioactive waste are presently facing great challenges.Spent ion exchange resins have become a focus of attention due to their high production and serious environmental risks.In this pap... The treatment and disposal of radioactive waste are presently facing great challenges.Spent ion exchange resins have become a focus of attention due to their high production and serious environmental risks.In this paper,a simplified model of cationic exchange resin is proposed,and the degradation processes of cationic resin monomer initiated by hydroxyl radicals(·OH)are clarified by combining statistical molecular fragmentation(SMF)model and density functional theory(DFT)calculations.The prediction of active sites indicates that the S-O bonds and the C-S bond of the sulfonic group are more likely to react during the degradation.The meta-position of the sulfonic group on the benzene ring is the most active site,and the benzene ring without the sulfonic group has a certain reactivity.The C11-C14 and C17-C20 bonds,on the carbon skeleton,are the most easily broken.It is also found that dihydroxy addition and elimination reactions play a major role in the process of desulfonation,carbon skeleton cleavage and benzene ring separation.The decomposition mechanisms found through the combination of physical models and chemical calculations,provide theoretical guidance for the treatment of complex polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. 展开更多
关键词 Cationic exchange resin Statistical molecular fragmentation model Density functional theory Hydroxyl radical decomposition mechanism
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A Three-section Algorithm of Dynamic Programming Based on Three-stage Decomposition System Model for Grade Transition Trajectory Optimization Problems
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作者 魏宇杰 江永亨 黄德先 《Chinese Journal of Chemical Engineering》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2014年第10期1122-1130,共9页
This paper introduces a practical solving scheme of gradetransition trajectory optimization(GTTO) problems under typical certificate-checking–updating framework. Due to complicated kinetics of polymerization,differen... This paper introduces a practical solving scheme of gradetransition trajectory optimization(GTTO) problems under typical certificate-checking–updating framework. Due to complicated kinetics of polymerization,differential/algebraic equations(DAEs) always cause great computational burden and system non-linearity usually makes GTTO non-convex bearing multiple optima. Therefore, coupled with the three-stage decomposition model, a three-section algorithm of dynamic programming(TSDP) is proposed based on the general iteration mechanism of iterative programming(IDP) and incorporated with adaptivegrid allocation scheme and heuristic modifications. The algorithm iteratively performs dynamic programming with heuristic modifications under constant calculation loads and adaptively allocates the valued computational resources to the regions that can further improve the optimality under the guidance of local error estimates. TSDP is finally compared with IDP and interior point method(IP) to verify its efficiency of computation. 展开更多
关键词 Gradetransition TRAJECTORY optimization Adaptivegrid ALLOCATION HEURISTIC modifications Three-section dynamic programming Three-stage decomposition model
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Parallel Computing of a Climate Model on the Dawn 1000 by Domain Decomposition Method
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作者 毕训强 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 1997年第4期138-141,共4页
In this paper the parallel computing of a grid-point nine-level atmospheric general circulation model on the Dawn 1000 is introduced. The model was developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Acad... In this paper the parallel computing of a grid-point nine-level atmospheric general circulation model on the Dawn 1000 is introduced. The model was developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). The Dawn 1000 is a MIMD massive parallel computer made by National Research Center for Intelligent Computer (NCIC), CAS. A two-dimensional domain decomposition method is adopted to perform the parallel computing. The potential ways to increase the speed-up ratio and exploit more resources of future massively parallel supercomputation are also discussed. 展开更多
关键词 Parallel computing Climate model DAWN 1000 MPP computer Domain decomposition
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Eigen-Space Decomposition(ESD)Method for the Design of Internal Model Controller(IMC)from Noisy Input and Output Plant Data
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作者 吴国海 华建兴 《Journal of China Textile University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 1999年第4期13-16,共4页
A novel approach to design Internal Model Controller(IMC)is proposed in this paper directly from measuredinput and output plant data,which are assumed to becontaminated by measurement noise.In order to avoidthe compli... A novel approach to design Internal Model Controller(IMC)is proposed in this paper directly from measuredinput and output plant data,which are assumed to becontaminated by measurement noise.In order to avoidthe complicated structure-identification problem inmost cases,two Finite Impulse Response(FIR)modelsare taken to represent the plant model and the internalmodel controller respectively.Taking account of mea-surement noise both in the plant input and its output,anESD based Total Least Squares(TLS)solution is appliedfor the unbiased identification of the plant model and itsinverse model,the latter constitutes the internal modelcontroller according to the principle that the internalmodel controller approximates the inverse dynamics ofthe plant model.Simulations are given for a testifica-tion. 展开更多
关键词 Internal model control total least SQUARES EIGEN - space decomposition parameter estimation identification
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A Network Decomposition Model for Rubber-Like Materials Considering Topological Constraints
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作者 Bin Fu Xiaoxiang Yang Qing Li 《Acta Mechanica Solida Sinica》 SCIE EI CSCD 2018年第6期785-793,共9页
A molecular network constitutive model is proposed in this study.Based on the concept of molecular network decomposition,the molecular network was decomposed into a James-Guth 3-chain network model and an Arruda-Boyce... A molecular network constitutive model is proposed in this study.Based on the concept of molecular network decomposition,the molecular network was decomposed into a James-Guth 3-chain network model and an Arruda-Boyce 8-chain network model.Considering that the single molecular chain of rubber is constrained by the surrounding molecular networks, the 3-chain model and the 8-chain model were consequently modified using the tube theory.The proposed model contains four material parameters that were determined by fitting the uniaxial tensile test data from rubber-like materials,and the values of these parameters were utilized to determine the pure shear and the biaxial extension.The proposed model agrees well with the experimental data and can predict the test results of experiments performed under the conditions of pure shear and equi-biaxial deformation with acceptable accuracy. 展开更多
关键词 HYPERELASTIC NETWORK decomposition Rubber-like materials CONSTITUTIVE model Tube model
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Preliminaries for a New Mathematical Framework for Modelling Tumour Growth Using Stress State Decomposition Technique
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作者 Hector Ariel DiRado Pablo Alejandro Beneyto Javier Luis Mroginski 《Journal of Biosciences and Medicines》 2020年第2期73-81,共9页
The main goal of the present paper is to present a mathematical framework for modelling tumour growth based on stress state decomposition technique (SSDT). This is a straightforward extension of the model for multi-ph... The main goal of the present paper is to present a mathematical framework for modelling tumour growth based on stress state decomposition technique (SSDT). This is a straightforward extension of the model for multi-phase nonsaturated soil consolidation with pollutant transport presented by the authors and may be regarded as an alternative to classical frameworks based on TCAT theory. In this preliminary work, the Representative Volume Element (RVE) for tumour is proposed along with its comparison with the corresponding one for soils modelling developed formerly by the authors. Equations standing for tumour phase are flawlessly brought into correspondence with those of gaseous phase in the soil problem showing that a similar task may be carried out for the remainders phases taking part in both RVEs. Furthermore, stresses induced by nonlinear saturation and permeability dependence on suction for soil interstitial fluids transport finds its counterpart on the contact between the cancer cell membrane and interstitial fluids rendering a higher primary variables coupling degree than what was attained in TCAT theory. From these preliminaries assessments, it may be put forward that likewise the stress state decomposition procedure stands for an alternative for modelling multi-phase nonsaturated soil consolidation with pollutant transport;it does for modelling cancer as well. 展开更多
关键词 CANCER TUMOUR Growth MATHEMATICAL modelLING Stress State decomposition TECHNIQUE
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Analysis of a Residual Model for the Decomposition of Polarimetric SAR Data
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作者 Xiaojing Bai Binbin He Xiaowen Li 《Advances in Remote Sensing》 2013年第2期120-126,共7页
Accurate estimation of the double-bounce scattering fd and surface scattering fs coefficients with Freeman-Durden decomposition is still difficult. This difficulty arises because overestimation of the volume scatterin... Accurate estimation of the double-bounce scattering fd and surface scattering fs coefficients with Freeman-Durden decomposition is still difficult. This difficulty arises because overestimation of the volume scattering energy contribution Pv leads to negative values for fd and fs. A generalized residual model is introduced to estimate fd and fs. The relationship between Pv and the residual model is analyzed. Eigenvalues computed from the residual model must be positive to explain physical scattering mechanisms. The authors employ a new volumetric scattering model to minimize Pv as calculated by several decomposition methods. It is concluded that decreasing Pv can help reduce negative energy. This conclusion is validated using actual polarimetric SAR data. 展开更多
关键词 Freeman-Durden decomposition Polarimetric SAR RESIDUAL model NEGATIVE SCATTERING ENERGY
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Mathematical modelling of a biofilm: The Adomian decomposition method
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作者 Subramanian Muthukaruppan Alagu Eswari Lakshmanan Rajendran 《Natural Science》 2013年第4期456-462,共7页
A mathematical modelling by a biofilm under steady state conditions is discussed. The nonlinear differential Equations in biofilm reaction is solved using the Adomian decomposition method. Approximate analytical expre... A mathematical modelling by a biofilm under steady state conditions is discussed. The nonlinear differential Equations in biofilm reaction is solved using the Adomian decomposition method. Approximate analytical expressions for substrate concentration have been derived for all values of parameters δ and SL. These analytical results are compared with the available numerical results and are found to be in good agreement. 展开更多
关键词 MATHEMATICAL modeling Simulation Adomian decomposition Method INITIAL BOUNDARY VALUE Problems
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Analysis and Forecasting COVID-19 Outbreak in Pakistan Using Decomposition and Ensemble Model
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作者 Xiaoli Qiang Muhammad Aamir +3 位作者 Muhammad Naeem Shaukat Ali Adnan Aslam Zehui Shao 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 SCIE EI 2021年第7期841-856,共16页
COVID-19 has caused severe health complications and produced a substantial adverse economic impact around the world.Forecasting the trend of COVID-19 infections could help in executing policies to effectively reduce t... COVID-19 has caused severe health complications and produced a substantial adverse economic impact around the world.Forecasting the trend of COVID-19 infections could help in executing policies to effectively reduce the number of new cases.In this study,we apply the decomposition and ensemble model to forecast COVID-19 confirmed cases,deaths,and recoveries in Pakistan for the upcoming month until the end of July.For the decomposition of data,the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition(EEMD)technique is applied.EEMD decomposes the data into small components,called Intrinsic Mode Functions(IMFs).For individual IMFs modelling,we use the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)model.The data used in this study is obtained from the official website of Pakistan that is publicly available and designated for COVID-19 outbreak with daily updates.Our analyses reveal that the number of recoveries,new cases,and deaths are increasing in Pakistan exponentially.Based on the selected EEMD-ARIMA model,the new confirmed cases are expected to rise from 213,470 to 311,454 by 31 July 2020,which is an increase of almost 1.46 times with a 95%prediction interval of 246,529 to 376,379.The 95%prediction interval for recovery is 162,414 to 224,579,with an increase of almost two times in total from 100802 to 193495 by 31 July 2020.On the other hand,the deaths are expected to increase from 4395 to 6751,which is almost 1.54 times,with a 95%prediction interval of 5617 to 7885.Thus,the COVID-19 forecasting results of Pakistan are alarming for the next month until 31 July 2020.They also confirm that the EEMD-ARIMA model is useful for the short-term forecasting of COVID-19,and that it is capable of keeping track of the real COVID-19 data in nearly all scenarios.The decomposition and ensemble strategy can be useful to help decision-makers in developing short-term strategies about the current number of disease occurrences until an appropriate vaccine is developed. 展开更多
关键词 ANALYSIS ARIMA COVID-19 decomposition and ensemble model forecasting
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