21st Century economy is full competitive market structure,severe capitalism exists in markets.Both capitalism and full competition requires monetary policy to increase demand in business markets.Because markets and fi...21st Century economy is full competitive market structure,severe capitalism exists in markets.Both capitalism and full competition requires monetary policy to increase demand in business markets.Because markets and firms face isomorphism threats that make competition severe.European Monetary System has gold-euro relations.ECB runs like second IMF in global and European economy.There may be need of third IMF in global economy.It may establish in China as Asia Central Bank.All three IMFs enable monetary authorities to apply effective monetary policy in global economy.Because capitalism requires money and monetary for demand in 21st Century.In addition,without third IMFs,ECB currently apply propositions of neoclassical monetarism in Europe.That policy would support demand and firms in European economy as it is very much important in global economy.展开更多
This paper investigates the stability of the international monetary system using the new open economic analysis framework. Our research has discovered that conditions for the stability of the international monetary sy...This paper investigates the stability of the international monetary system using the new open economic analysis framework. Our research has discovered that conditions for the stability of the international monetary system are such that the economic volume of reserve currency countries must be large enough and that the solvency capacity growth rate of reserve currency countries should be no lower than the real output growth rate of non- reserve currency countries and the real return of the reserve currency,＂ the existence of the valuation effect cannot secure the stability of a reserve currency,＂ and inclusion of the euro and the Japanese yen into international reserve currencies cannot stabilize the international monetary system, while Renminbi internationalization plays an irreplaceable role to the stability of the international monetary system.展开更多
Neo-merchantalism is the use of national currency in international trade among countries to increase global trade. This is called as open currency in the study. Neo-merchantalism also includes open trade to facilitate...Neo-merchantalism is the use of national currency in international trade among countries to increase global trade. This is called as open currency in the study. Neo-merchantalism also includes open trade to facilitate trade among countries. Thirdly, neo-merchantalism covers International Monetary Fund （IMF）. Because IMF regulates and controls money flow among countries in international trade, neo-merchantalism could be presented as follows： neo-merchantalism = open trade ＋ open currency ＋ IMF. Open trade and open currency exist in merchantalism theory. But today, there is also IMF control. Therefore, neo-merchantalism = merchantalism ＋ IMF. Globalism started in 1990 in global markets. It increased the amount of global trade from 13 trillion dollars to 60 trillion dollars. Therefore, each country has 6%-7% economic growth in global markets in the 2000s. It is expected that neo-merchantalism theory doubles global trade up to 100 trillion dollars. Because each country uses its money to do intemational trade, IMF＇s restrictions are important in currency flow, as countries may overprint their money to do more trade that increases inflation rate in global economies. For example, emission of United States （US） dollars increased 50% after 2008 crises in American economy. Therefore, the Federal Reserve aims to stop quantitative enlargement policy in order to impede inflation in American economy. In neo-merchantalism, IMF can restrict money print and currency flow according to country＇s gross domestic product （GDP）, because quantity theory in economy requires that a country can issue its national currency according to its national GDP.展开更多
Mainstream theories have not sufficiently explored the organic connection between fiscal and monetary systems.The requirement to establish a modern fiscal,tax,and financial system necessitates a more profound understa...Mainstream theories have not sufficiently explored the organic connection between fiscal and monetary systems.The requirement to establish a modern fiscal,tax,and financial system necessitates a more profound understanding of the interrelated effects between fiscal and monetary systems.This paper,based on a comprehensive analytical framework for fiscal influence on the monetary system,explores the institutional foundation,transmission channels,and regulatory capabilities through which the fiscal authorities affect monetary circulation.There are three findings.First,the Treasury Single Account(TSA)system,the capital contributor responsibility system with the fiscal authorities fulfilling responsibilities as the capital contributor for state-owned commercial banks,and the fiscal credit system endow fiscal authorities with the ability to influence money creation.Second,fiscal authorities exert a significant influence on the monetary market:With regard to money supply,treasury deposits are a vital factor influencing the broad money,and the impact of treasury deposits on money supply exhibits significant cyclical characteristics;And in terms of public financial product production,over the past decade,the proportion of fiscal credit relative to commercial credit has been on the rise,with 11.04%to 31.29%of loans from financial institutions in 2022 categorized as fiscal credit.Third,relevant authorities have employed open market operations to counteract disturbances from treasury revenues and expenditures,have utilized structural monetary policy tools in conjunction with fiscal production of public financial products,expanded government bond space through the characteristics of state-owned financial capital as a fiscal contributor,and supported the central bank’s macro-prudential management through their role as the capital contributor for state-owned commercial banks.展开更多
There exist dual features of internationalization and regionalization in the current international monetary system, and the U.S. dollar is still in a dominant position in the system. A lack of relevant institutional c...There exist dual features of internationalization and regionalization in the current international monetary system, and the U.S. dollar is still in a dominant position in the system. A lack of relevant institutional constraints has led to institutional deficiencies and systematic risks in the international monetary system, and resulted in the frequent financial crises in the world in recent years. As an emerging economy closely related to the current international monetary system, China has responsibilities and obligations to participate actively in international monetary system reform and push forward international monetary system reform through institutional supply.展开更多
The study empirically assesses how macroprudential policy interacts with systemic risk,industrial production,and monetary intervention on a global level from January 2006 to December 2018.We adopt the aggregate proxie...The study empirically assesses how macroprudential policy interacts with systemic risk,industrial production,and monetary intervention on a global level from January 2006 to December 2018.We adopt the aggregate proxies of these variables,capturing their global effects,and use a novel econometric technique,namely,smooth local projections.The study finds that global macroprudential policy leads the monetary policy,exhibiting a countercyclical pattern concerning industrial production.The latter has an inverse bidirectional linkage with systemic risk.Thus,an ex-ante tight macroprudential policy can indirectly mitigate global systemic risk through its pro-growth effect on industrial production,although no convincing evidence exists for the direct impact of a macroprudential intervention on systemic risk.The study results endure several extensions and a robustness check,which builds on alternative measures of global systemic stress and real economic activity,thereby legitimizing the increased importance attached to the macroprudential policy since the 2007–2009 global financial crisis.展开更多
We often hear statements like“the market raises expectations for central bank interest rate cuts,resulting in higher commodity prices”.Given the current situation,the People’s Bank of China might adopt a more accom...We often hear statements like“the market raises expectations for central bank interest rate cuts,resulting in higher commodity prices”.Given the current situation,the People’s Bank of China might adopt a more accommodative monetary policy to mitigate the impact of the China-U.S.trade friction.Will this further easing of the monetary environment lead to an increase in natural gas prices?展开更多
We employ the Multi-Scale Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity Confidence Indicator(MS-LPPLS-CI)approach to identify positive and negative bubbles in the short-,medium,and long-term for the Indian stock market,using wee...We employ the Multi-Scale Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity Confidence Indicator(MS-LPPLS-CI)approach to identify positive and negative bubbles in the short-,medium,and long-term for the Indian stock market,using weekly data from November 2003 to December 2020.We use a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach to analyze the predictive impact of monetary policy shocks on bubble indicators.We find,in general,strong evidence of predictability across the entire conditional distribution for the two monetary policy shock factors,with stronger impacts for negative bubbles.Our findings have critical implications for the Reserve Bank of India,academics,and investors.展开更多
An experiment was conducted during Kharif seasons of 2009 and 2010 on sandy loam soil of West Bengal, India to evaluate the productivity and economic viability of maize ＋ legume intercropping systems in additive as w...An experiment was conducted during Kharif seasons of 2009 and 2010 on sandy loam soil of West Bengal, India to evaluate the productivity and economic viability of maize ＋ legume intercropping systems in additive as well as in replacement series with different row proportions. Maize （Zea rnays L.） cv. ＂Vijay＂ （composite）, green gram （Vigna radiata L.） cv. ＂Samrat＂, black gram （Vigna mungo L.） cv. ＂Sarada＂, soybean （Glycine max L. Merril） cv. ＂PK 327＂ and peanut （Arachis hypogaea L.） cv. ＂JL 24＂, were tested in monoculture as well as in intercropping situations with 1：1 （additive series） and 1：2 ratios （replacement series）. The result indicated that intercropped legumes improved the yield components of maize and offered some bonus yield. The highest maize grain yield （2,916.28 kg/ha） and maize equivalent yield （4,831.45 kg/ha） were recorded with maize ＋ green gram （1：1） and maize ＋ peanut （1：I）, respectively. The values of all the competition functions were always greater than unity and maize ＋ black gram （1：2） recorded the highest values of land equivalent ratio （1.433）, area time equivalent ratio （1.374） and land equivalent coefficient （0.421）. Maximum monetary advantage （Rs. 10,579.13） was found with maize ＋ green gam （l：1）. Maize ＋ peanut （1：2） combination recorded the highest relative net return （2.01）, net return （Rs. 28,523.08）, benefit-cost ratio （2.76） ad per day return （Rs. 259.30）.展开更多
Using system clustering method to group China's provinces into 3 new groups according to their housing prices, then establishing a state-space model and applying the Kalman filter calculation, we made a comparativ...Using system clustering method to group China's provinces into 3 new groups according to their housing prices, then establishing a state-space model and applying the Kalman filter calculation, we made a comparative analysis of the influences of different types of monetary policy instruments towards different regional housing prices. The empirical results show that both the quantitative instruments represented by M2 and the pricing instruments represented by real interest rate have increasing influences on different regional housing prices,but the former influence is much stronger than the latter. The influential differences of quantitative instruments to regional housing prices are much greater. It means the higher the regional housing price is, the greater the influence is. Therefore, the central bank shall optimize the combination of monetary policy instruments according to the above characteristics of different types of monetary policy instruments in order to acquire the regulatory target of real estate market.展开更多
This study investigates the international spillover effects of US unconventional monetary policy(UMP)-frequently called large-scale asset purchases or quantitative easing(QE)—on advanced and emerging market economies...This study investigates the international spillover effects of US unconventional monetary policy(UMP)-frequently called large-scale asset purchases or quantitative easing(QE)—on advanced and emerging market economies,using structural vector autoregressive models with high-frequency daily data.Blinder(Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis Rev 92(6):465–479,2010)argued that the QE measures primarily aim to reduce US interest rate spreads,such as term and risk premiums.Considering this argument and recent empirical evidence,we use two spreads as indicators of US UMP:the mortgage and term spreads.Based on data from 20 emerging and 20 advanced countries,our empirical findings reveal that US unconventional monetary policies significantly affect financial conditions in emerging and advanced countries by altering the risktaking behavior of investors.This result suggests that the risk-taking channel plays an important role in transmitting the effects of these policies to the rest of the world.The extent of these effects depends on the type of QE measures.QE measures such as purchases of private sector securities that lower the US mortgage spread exert stronger and more significant spillover effects on international financial markets than those that reduce the US term spread.Furthermore,the estimated financial spillovers vary substantially across countries and between and within the emerging and advanced countries that we examine in this study.展开更多
Empirical research has shown that there were international spillover effects from the U.S. monetary policy to output level, net exports and price levels of each country, and the impact on prices in each country was of...Empirical research has shown that there were international spillover effects from the U.S. monetary policy to output level, net exports and price levels of each country, and the impact on prices in each country was of synchronous effect. The structural impulse response analysis showed that U.S. monetary policy could improve U.S. income and payment without damaging U.S. economic growth, but the shocks negatively affected the economic growth in the rest of the world. Hence, it's important to pay close attention to the moral risks of U.S. monetary policy to evade the global shocks caused by the "benefit-itself-at-the-expense-of-others" polices of the American government. Besides these findings, U.S. monetary policy shocks strongly affect China's trade surplus fluctuations. Based on this, we propose that the approaches of balancing China's current account could be explored efficiently from the perspective of monetary policy.展开更多
Modeling tools simulate the functioning of ecosystems and their interactions with human activities,helping decision makers understand how interventions impact ecosystems and evaluate management strategies.This leads t...Modeling tools simulate the functioning of ecosystems and their interactions with human activities,helping decision makers understand how interventions impact ecosystems and evaluate management strategies.This leads to informed decisions that balance human development and environmental protection.Among these models,Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)stands out for its ability to simulate multiple biophysical processes that can be linked to the provision of ecosystem services(ES).Although SWAT has been successfully applied for the evaluation of ES,the development of complementary approaches that translate the results of SWAT into monetary terms is still in its early stages.To narrow this gap,this review article aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of the literature on the relationship between SWAT model results and economic analysis.Specifically,the review summarizes the research conducted on the use of SWAT model results to estimate economic values,including the different methodologies used and the types of economic values estimated.The review will also discuss the limitations and challenges of these approaches,provide a critical evaluation of the strengths and weaknesses of the research in this area,and provide recommendations to strengthen SWAT application for the economic evaluation of management strategies.展开更多
This works examine the responses of housing prices to the monetary policies in various Chinese cities. Thirty-five large and medium sized Chinese cities are classified into six clusters applying the minimum variance c...This works examine the responses of housing prices to the monetary policies in various Chinese cities. Thirty-five large and medium sized Chinese cities are classified into six clusters applying the minimum variance clustering method according to the calculated correlation coefficients between the housing price indices of every two cities.Time difference correlation analysis is then employed to quantify the relations between the housing price indices of the six clusters and the monetary policies.It is suggested that the housing prices of various cities evolved at different paces and their responses to the monetary policies are heterogeneous,and local economic features are more important than geographic distances in determining the housing price trends.展开更多
In the framework of an overlapping generations model, forward-looking monetary policy roles and backward-looking monetary policy rules were investigated. It is shown that the monetary steady state is more likely to be...In the framework of an overlapping generations model, forward-looking monetary policy roles and backward-looking monetary policy rules were investigated. It is shown that the monetary steady state is more likely to be indeterminate under an active forwardlooking rule than under the corresponding backward-looking rule. It is also shown that backward-looking roles can render the monetary steady state unstable.展开更多
We construct recurrence plots(RPs)and conduct recurrence quantification analysis(RQA)to investigate the dynamic properties of the new Center for Financial Stability(CFS)Divisia monetary aggregates for the United State...We construct recurrence plots(RPs)and conduct recurrence quantification analysis(RQA)to investigate the dynamic properties of the new Center for Financial Stability(CFS)Divisia monetary aggregates for the United States.In this study,we use the lat-est vintage of Divisia aggregates,maintained within CFS.We use monthly data,from January 1967 to December 2020,which is a sample period that includes the extreme economic events of the 2007–2009 global financial crisis.We then make comparisons between narrow and broad Divisia money measures and find evidence of a nonlinear but reserved possible chaotic explanation of their origin.The application of RPs to broad Divisia monetary aggregates encompasses an additional drift structure around the global financial crisis in 2008.Applying the moving window RQA to the growth rates of narrow and broad Divisia monetary aggregates,we identify periods of changes in data-generating processes and associate such changes to monetary policy regimes and financial innovations that occurred during those times.展开更多
In this paper, a time_varying AR model is constructed by using the vector_space algorithm of compactly_supported biorthonormal wavelet transform. It is developed for forecasting narrow monetary multipliers in China .
This study examines the exchange rate pass-through to the United States(US)restaurant and hotel prices by incorporating the effect of monetary policy uncertainty over the period 2001:M12 to 2019:M01.Using the nonlinea...This study examines the exchange rate pass-through to the United States(US)restaurant and hotel prices by incorporating the effect of monetary policy uncertainty over the period 2001:M12 to 2019:M01.Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag(NARDL)model,empirical evidence indicates asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.Moreover,a stronger pass-through effect is observed during depreciation and a negative shock in monetary policy uncertainty,corroborating asymmetric pass-through predictions.Our results further show that a positive shock in energy prices leads to an increase in restaurant and hotel prices.Furthermore,asymmetric causality indicates that a positive shock in the exchange rate causes a positive shock to restaurant and hotel prices.We found feedback causal effects between positive and negative shocks in monetary policy uncertainty and positive and negative shocks in the exchange rate.Additionally,we detected a one-way asymmetric causality,flowing from a positive(negative)shock to a positive(negative)shock in energy prices.Therefore,these findings provide insights for policymakers to achieve low and stable prices in the US restaurant and hotel industry through sound monetary policy formulations.Highlights.The drivers of restaurant and hotel business in tourism destinations are examined.There is asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.A stronger pass-through is observed during appreciation and a negative shock to monetary policy uncertainty.There is asymmetric causality from positive shock in exchange rate to postive shock in restaurant and hotel prices.展开更多
文摘21st Century economy is full competitive market structure,severe capitalism exists in markets.Both capitalism and full competition requires monetary policy to increase demand in business markets.Because markets and firms face isomorphism threats that make competition severe.European Monetary System has gold-euro relations.ECB runs like second IMF in global and European economy.There may be need of third IMF in global economy.It may establish in China as Asia Central Bank.All three IMFs enable monetary authorities to apply effective monetary policy in global economy.Because capitalism requires money and monetary for demand in 21st Century.In addition,without third IMFs,ECB currently apply propositions of neoclassical monetarism in Europe.That policy would support demand and firms in European economy as it is very much important in global economy.
基金the research program Renminbi Internationalization and Adjustment of Internal and External Imbalances of China’s Economy(NKZXB1222)supported by the Special Fund of Fundamental Scientific Research of Central Universities
文摘This paper investigates the stability of the international monetary system using the new open economic analysis framework. Our research has discovered that conditions for the stability of the international monetary system are such that the economic volume of reserve currency countries must be large enough and that the solvency capacity growth rate of reserve currency countries should be no lower than the real output growth rate of non- reserve currency countries and the real return of the reserve currency,＂ the existence of the valuation effect cannot secure the stability of a reserve currency,＂ and inclusion of the euro and the Japanese yen into international reserve currencies cannot stabilize the international monetary system, while Renminbi internationalization plays an irreplaceable role to the stability of the international monetary system.
文摘Neo-merchantalism is the use of national currency in international trade among countries to increase global trade. This is called as open currency in the study. Neo-merchantalism also includes open trade to facilitate trade among countries. Thirdly, neo-merchantalism covers International Monetary Fund （IMF）. Because IMF regulates and controls money flow among countries in international trade, neo-merchantalism could be presented as follows： neo-merchantalism = open trade ＋ open currency ＋ IMF. Open trade and open currency exist in merchantalism theory. But today, there is also IMF control. Therefore, neo-merchantalism = merchantalism ＋ IMF. Globalism started in 1990 in global markets. It increased the amount of global trade from 13 trillion dollars to 60 trillion dollars. Therefore, each country has 6%-7% economic growth in global markets in the 2000s. It is expected that neo-merchantalism theory doubles global trade up to 100 trillion dollars. Because each country uses its money to do intemational trade, IMF＇s restrictions are important in currency flow, as countries may overprint their money to do more trade that increases inflation rate in global economies. For example, emission of United States （US） dollars increased 50% after 2008 crises in American economy. Therefore, the Federal Reserve aims to stop quantitative enlargement policy in order to impede inflation in American economy. In neo-merchantalism, IMF can restrict money print and currency flow according to country＇s gross domestic product （GDP）, because quantity theory in economy requires that a country can issue its national currency according to its national GDP.
基金supported by the major project of the National Social Science Fund of China(No.20AJY020).
文摘Mainstream theories have not sufficiently explored the organic connection between fiscal and monetary systems.The requirement to establish a modern fiscal,tax,and financial system necessitates a more profound understanding of the interrelated effects between fiscal and monetary systems.This paper,based on a comprehensive analytical framework for fiscal influence on the monetary system,explores the institutional foundation,transmission channels,and regulatory capabilities through which the fiscal authorities affect monetary circulation.There are three findings.First,the Treasury Single Account(TSA)system,the capital contributor responsibility system with the fiscal authorities fulfilling responsibilities as the capital contributor for state-owned commercial banks,and the fiscal credit system endow fiscal authorities with the ability to influence money creation.Second,fiscal authorities exert a significant influence on the monetary market:With regard to money supply,treasury deposits are a vital factor influencing the broad money,and the impact of treasury deposits on money supply exhibits significant cyclical characteristics;And in terms of public financial product production,over the past decade,the proportion of fiscal credit relative to commercial credit has been on the rise,with 11.04%to 31.29%of loans from financial institutions in 2022 categorized as fiscal credit.Third,relevant authorities have employed open market operations to counteract disturbances from treasury revenues and expenditures,have utilized structural monetary policy tools in conjunction with fiscal production of public financial products,expanded government bond space through the characteristics of state-owned financial capital as a fiscal contributor,and supported the central bank’s macro-prudential management through their role as the capital contributor for state-owned commercial banks.
文摘There exist dual features of internationalization and regionalization in the current international monetary system, and the U.S. dollar is still in a dominant position in the system. A lack of relevant institutional constraints has led to institutional deficiencies and systematic risks in the international monetary system, and resulted in the frequent financial crises in the world in recent years. As an emerging economy closely related to the current international monetary system, China has responsibilities and obligations to participate actively in international monetary system reform and push forward international monetary system reform through institutional supply.
文摘The study empirically assesses how macroprudential policy interacts with systemic risk,industrial production,and monetary intervention on a global level from January 2006 to December 2018.We adopt the aggregate proxies of these variables,capturing their global effects,and use a novel econometric technique,namely,smooth local projections.The study finds that global macroprudential policy leads the monetary policy,exhibiting a countercyclical pattern concerning industrial production.The latter has an inverse bidirectional linkage with systemic risk.Thus,an ex-ante tight macroprudential policy can indirectly mitigate global systemic risk through its pro-growth effect on industrial production,although no convincing evidence exists for the direct impact of a macroprudential intervention on systemic risk.The study results endure several extensions and a robustness check,which builds on alternative measures of global systemic stress and real economic activity,thereby legitimizing the increased importance attached to the macroprudential policy since the 2007–2009 global financial crisis.
文摘We often hear statements like“the market raises expectations for central bank interest rate cuts,resulting in higher commodity prices”.Given the current situation,the People’s Bank of China might adopt a more accommodative monetary policy to mitigate the impact of the China-U.S.trade friction.Will this further easing of the monetary environment lead to an increase in natural gas prices?
文摘We employ the Multi-Scale Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity Confidence Indicator(MS-LPPLS-CI)approach to identify positive and negative bubbles in the short-,medium,and long-term for the Indian stock market,using weekly data from November 2003 to December 2020.We use a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach to analyze the predictive impact of monetary policy shocks on bubble indicators.We find,in general,strong evidence of predictability across the entire conditional distribution for the two monetary policy shock factors,with stronger impacts for negative bubbles.Our findings have critical implications for the Reserve Bank of India,academics,and investors.
文摘An experiment was conducted during Kharif seasons of 2009 and 2010 on sandy loam soil of West Bengal, India to evaluate the productivity and economic viability of maize ＋ legume intercropping systems in additive as well as in replacement series with different row proportions. Maize （Zea rnays L.） cv. ＂Vijay＂ （composite）, green gram （Vigna radiata L.） cv. ＂Samrat＂, black gram （Vigna mungo L.） cv. ＂Sarada＂, soybean （Glycine max L. Merril） cv. ＂PK 327＂ and peanut （Arachis hypogaea L.） cv. ＂JL 24＂, were tested in monoculture as well as in intercropping situations with 1：1 （additive series） and 1：2 ratios （replacement series）. The result indicated that intercropped legumes improved the yield components of maize and offered some bonus yield. The highest maize grain yield （2,916.28 kg/ha） and maize equivalent yield （4,831.45 kg/ha） were recorded with maize ＋ green gram （1：1） and maize ＋ peanut （1：I）, respectively. The values of all the competition functions were always greater than unity and maize ＋ black gram （1：2） recorded the highest values of land equivalent ratio （1.433）, area time equivalent ratio （1.374） and land equivalent coefficient （0.421）. Maximum monetary advantage （Rs. 10,579.13） was found with maize ＋ green gam （l：1）. Maize ＋ peanut （1：2） combination recorded the highest relative net return （2.01）, net return （Rs. 28,523.08）, benefit-cost ratio （2.76） ad per day return （Rs. 259.30）.
基金the Humanity and Social Science on Youth Foundation of Ministry of Education of China(No.14YJC790152)the Foundation of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission(No.2016-SHNGE-03-ZD)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2013M531157)
文摘Using system clustering method to group China's provinces into 3 new groups according to their housing prices, then establishing a state-space model and applying the Kalman filter calculation, we made a comparative analysis of the influences of different types of monetary policy instruments towards different regional housing prices. The empirical results show that both the quantitative instruments represented by M2 and the pricing instruments represented by real interest rate have increasing influences on different regional housing prices,but the former influence is much stronger than the latter. The influential differences of quantitative instruments to regional housing prices are much greater. It means the higher the regional housing price is, the greater the influence is. Therefore, the central bank shall optimize the combination of monetary policy instruments according to the above characteristics of different types of monetary policy instruments in order to acquire the regulatory target of real estate market.
基金Funding was provided by Anadolu University Scientific Research Project Commission(Grant number:1605E282).
文摘This study investigates the international spillover effects of US unconventional monetary policy(UMP)-frequently called large-scale asset purchases or quantitative easing(QE)—on advanced and emerging market economies,using structural vector autoregressive models with high-frequency daily data.Blinder(Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis Rev 92(6):465–479,2010)argued that the QE measures primarily aim to reduce US interest rate spreads,such as term and risk premiums.Considering this argument and recent empirical evidence,we use two spreads as indicators of US UMP:the mortgage and term spreads.Based on data from 20 emerging and 20 advanced countries,our empirical findings reveal that US unconventional monetary policies significantly affect financial conditions in emerging and advanced countries by altering the risktaking behavior of investors.This result suggests that the risk-taking channel plays an important role in transmitting the effects of these policies to the rest of the world.The extent of these effects depends on the type of QE measures.QE measures such as purchases of private sector securities that lower the US mortgage spread exert stronger and more significant spillover effects on international financial markets than those that reduce the US term spread.Furthermore,the estimated financial spillovers vary substantially across countries and between and within the emerging and advanced countries that we examine in this study.
文摘Empirical research has shown that there were international spillover effects from the U.S. monetary policy to output level, net exports and price levels of each country, and the impact on prices in each country was of synchronous effect. The structural impulse response analysis showed that U.S. monetary policy could improve U.S. income and payment without damaging U.S. economic growth, but the shocks negatively affected the economic growth in the rest of the world. Hence, it's important to pay close attention to the moral risks of U.S. monetary policy to evade the global shocks caused by the "benefit-itself-at-the-expense-of-others" polices of the American government. Besides these findings, U.S. monetary policy shocks strongly affect China's trade surplus fluctuations. Based on this, we propose that the approaches of balancing China's current account could be explored efficiently from the perspective of monetary policy.
基金MERLIN project(Mainstreaming Ecological Restoration of freshwater-related ecosystems in a Landscape context:INnovation,upscaling and transformation),funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement ID 101036337.
文摘Modeling tools simulate the functioning of ecosystems and their interactions with human activities,helping decision makers understand how interventions impact ecosystems and evaluate management strategies.This leads to informed decisions that balance human development and environmental protection.Among these models,Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)stands out for its ability to simulate multiple biophysical processes that can be linked to the provision of ecosystem services(ES).Although SWAT has been successfully applied for the evaluation of ES,the development of complementary approaches that translate the results of SWAT into monetary terms is still in its early stages.To narrow this gap,this review article aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of the literature on the relationship between SWAT model results and economic analysis.Specifically,the review summarizes the research conducted on the use of SWAT model results to estimate economic values,including the different methodologies used and the types of economic values estimated.The review will also discuss the limitations and challenges of these approaches,provide a critical evaluation of the strengths and weaknesses of the research in this area,and provide recommendations to strengthen SWAT application for the economic evaluation of management strategies.
基金Supported by the Hundred Talent Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.71103179 and 71102129Program for Young Innovative Research Team in China University of Political Science and Law, 2010 Fund Project under the Ministry of Education of China for Youth Who are Devoted to Humanities and Social Sciences Research 10YJC630425
文摘This works examine the responses of housing prices to the monetary policies in various Chinese cities. Thirty-five large and medium sized Chinese cities are classified into six clusters applying the minimum variance clustering method according to the calculated correlation coefficients between the housing price indices of every two cities.Time difference correlation analysis is then employed to quantify the relations between the housing price indices of the six clusters and the monetary policies.It is suggested that the housing prices of various cities evolved at different paces and their responses to the monetary policies are heterogeneous,and local economic features are more important than geographic distances in determining the housing price trends.
基金Project supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant No. 70071012）
文摘In the framework of an overlapping generations model, forward-looking monetary policy roles and backward-looking monetary policy rules were investigated. It is shown that the monetary steady state is more likely to be indeterminate under an active forwardlooking rule than under the corresponding backward-looking rule. It is also shown that backward-looking roles can render the monetary steady state unstable.
文摘We construct recurrence plots(RPs)and conduct recurrence quantification analysis(RQA)to investigate the dynamic properties of the new Center for Financial Stability(CFS)Divisia monetary aggregates for the United States.In this study,we use the lat-est vintage of Divisia aggregates,maintained within CFS.We use monthly data,from January 1967 to December 2020,which is a sample period that includes the extreme economic events of the 2007–2009 global financial crisis.We then make comparisons between narrow and broad Divisia money measures and find evidence of a nonlinear but reserved possible chaotic explanation of their origin.The application of RPs to broad Divisia monetary aggregates encompasses an additional drift structure around the global financial crisis in 2008.Applying the moving window RQA to the growth rates of narrow and broad Divisia monetary aggregates,we identify periods of changes in data-generating processes and associate such changes to monetary policy regimes and financial innovations that occurred during those times.
文摘In this paper, a time_varying AR model is constructed by using the vector_space algorithm of compactly_supported biorthonormal wavelet transform. It is developed for forecasting narrow monetary multipliers in China .
文摘This study examines the exchange rate pass-through to the United States(US)restaurant and hotel prices by incorporating the effect of monetary policy uncertainty over the period 2001:M12 to 2019:M01.Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag(NARDL)model,empirical evidence indicates asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.Moreover,a stronger pass-through effect is observed during depreciation and a negative shock in monetary policy uncertainty,corroborating asymmetric pass-through predictions.Our results further show that a positive shock in energy prices leads to an increase in restaurant and hotel prices.Furthermore,asymmetric causality indicates that a positive shock in the exchange rate causes a positive shock to restaurant and hotel prices.We found feedback causal effects between positive and negative shocks in monetary policy uncertainty and positive and negative shocks in the exchange rate.Additionally,we detected a one-way asymmetric causality,flowing from a positive(negative)shock to a positive(negative)shock in energy prices.Therefore,these findings provide insights for policymakers to achieve low and stable prices in the US restaurant and hotel industry through sound monetary policy formulations.Highlights.The drivers of restaurant and hotel business in tourism destinations are examined.There is asymmetric pass-through of exchange rate and monetary policy uncertainty.A stronger pass-through is observed during appreciation and a negative shock to monetary policy uncertainty.There is asymmetric causality from positive shock in exchange rate to postive shock in restaurant and hotel prices.
