This manuscript presents a stochastic model updating method, taking both uncertainties in models and variability in testing into account. The updated finite element（FE） models obtained through the proposed technique...This manuscript presents a stochastic model updating method, taking both uncertainties in models and variability in testing into account. The updated finite element（FE） models obtained through the proposed technique can aid in the analysis and design of structural systems. The authors developed a stochastic model updating method integrating distance discrimination analysis（DDA） and advanced Monte Carlo（MC） technique to（1） enable more efficient MC by using a response surface model,（2） calibrate parameters with an iterative test-analysis correlation based upon DDA, and（3） utilize and compare different distance functions as correlation metrics. Using DDA, the influence of distance functions on model updating results is analyzed. The proposed stochastic method makes it possible to obtain a precise model updating outcome with acceptable calculation cost. The stochastic method is demonstrated on a helicopter case study updated using both Euclidian and Mahalanobis distance metrics. It is observed that the selected distance function influences the iterative calibration process and thus, the calibration outcome, indicating that an integration of different metrics might yield improved results.展开更多
An improved method using kernel density estimation （KDE） and confidence level is presented for model validation with small samples. Decision making is a challenging problem because of input uncertainty and only smal...An improved method using kernel density estimation （KDE） and confidence level is presented for model validation with small samples. Decision making is a challenging problem because of input uncertainty and only small samples can be used due to the high costs of experimental measurements. However, model validation provides more confidence for decision makers when improving prediction accuracy at the same time. The confidence level method is introduced and the optimum sample variance is determined using a new method in kernel density estimation to increase the credibility of model validation. As a numerical example, the static frame model validation challenge problem presented by Sandia National Laboratories has been chosen. The optimum bandwidth is selected in kernel density estimation in order to build the probability model based on the calibration data. The model assessment is achieved using validation and accreditation experimental data respectively based on the probability model. Finally, the target structure prediction is performed using validated model, which are consistent with the results obtained by other researchers. The results demonstrate that the method using the improved confidence level and kernel density estimation is an effective approach to solve the model validation problem with small samples.展开更多
For surface runoff estimation in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)model,the curve number(CN)procedure is commonly adopted to calculate surface runoff by dynamically updating CN values based on antecedent soil m...For surface runoff estimation in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)model,the curve number(CN)procedure is commonly adopted to calculate surface runoff by dynamically updating CN values based on antecedent soil moisture condition(SCSI)in field.From SWAT2005 and onward,an alternative approach has become available to apply the CN method by relating the runoff potential to daily evapotranspiration(SCSII).While improved runoff prediction with SCSII has been reported in several case studies,few investigations have been made on its influence to water quality output or on the model uncertainty associated with the SCSII method.The objectives of the research were:(1)to quantify the improvements in hydrologic and water quality predictions obtained through different surface runoff estimation techniques;and(2)to examine how model uncertainty is affected by combining different surface runoff estimation techniques within SWAT using Bayesian model averaging(BMA).Applications of BMA provide an alternative approach to investigate the nature of structural uncertainty associated with both CN methods.Results showed that SCSII and BMA associated approaches exhibit improved performance in both discharge and total NO3 predictions compared to SCSI.In addition,the application of BMA has a positive effect on finding well performed solutions in the multi-dimensional parameter space,but the predictive uncertainty is not evidently reduced or enhanced.Therefore,we recommend additional future SWAT calibration/validation research with an emphasis on the impact of SCSII on the prediction of other pollutants.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 10972019)the Innovation Foundation of BUAA for Ph.D. Graduates of China, and the China Scholarship Council
文摘This manuscript presents a stochastic model updating method, taking both uncertainties in models and variability in testing into account. The updated finite element（FE） models obtained through the proposed technique can aid in the analysis and design of structural systems. The authors developed a stochastic model updating method integrating distance discrimination analysis（DDA） and advanced Monte Carlo（MC） technique to（1） enable more efficient MC by using a response surface model,（2） calibrate parameters with an iterative test-analysis correlation based upon DDA, and（3） utilize and compare different distance functions as correlation metrics. Using DDA, the influence of distance functions on model updating results is analyzed. The proposed stochastic method makes it possible to obtain a precise model updating outcome with acceptable calculation cost. The stochastic method is demonstrated on a helicopter case study updated using both Euclidian and Mahalanobis distance metrics. It is observed that the selected distance function influences the iterative calibration process and thus, the calibration outcome, indicating that an integration of different metrics might yield improved results.
基金Funding of Jiangsu Innovation Program for Graduate Education (CXZZ11_0193)NUAA Research Funding (NJ2010009)
文摘An improved method using kernel density estimation （KDE） and confidence level is presented for model validation with small samples. Decision making is a challenging problem because of input uncertainty and only small samples can be used due to the high costs of experimental measurements. However, model validation provides more confidence for decision makers when improving prediction accuracy at the same time. The confidence level method is introduced and the optimum sample variance is determined using a new method in kernel density estimation to increase the credibility of model validation. As a numerical example, the static frame model validation challenge problem presented by Sandia National Laboratories has been chosen. The optimum bandwidth is selected in kernel density estimation in order to build the probability model based on the calibration data. The model assessment is achieved using validation and accreditation experimental data respectively based on the probability model. Finally, the target structure prediction is performed using validated model, which are consistent with the results obtained by other researchers. The results demonstrate that the method using the improved confidence level and kernel density estimation is an effective approach to solve the model validation problem with small samples.
基金This study was supported in part by the US DA-National Institute of Food and Agriculture grants 2007-51130-03876,2009-51130-06038the Research Program for Agricultural Science&Technology Development(Project No.PJ008566)National Academy of Agricultural Science,Rural Development Administration,Republic of Korea,and the USDA-NRCS Conservation Effects Assessment Project(CEAP)-Wildlife and Cropland components.
文摘For surface runoff estimation in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)model,the curve number(CN)procedure is commonly adopted to calculate surface runoff by dynamically updating CN values based on antecedent soil moisture condition(SCSI)in field.From SWAT2005 and onward,an alternative approach has become available to apply the CN method by relating the runoff potential to daily evapotranspiration(SCSII).While improved runoff prediction with SCSII has been reported in several case studies,few investigations have been made on its influence to water quality output or on the model uncertainty associated with the SCSII method.The objectives of the research were:(1)to quantify the improvements in hydrologic and water quality predictions obtained through different surface runoff estimation techniques;and(2)to examine how model uncertainty is affected by combining different surface runoff estimation techniques within SWAT using Bayesian model averaging(BMA).Applications of BMA provide an alternative approach to investigate the nature of structural uncertainty associated with both CN methods.Results showed that SCSII and BMA associated approaches exhibit improved performance in both discharge and total NO3 predictions compared to SCSI.In addition,the application of BMA has a positive effect on finding well performed solutions in the multi-dimensional parameter space,but the predictive uncertainty is not evidently reduced or enhanced.Therefore,we recommend additional future SWAT calibration/validation research with an emphasis on the impact of SCSII on the prediction of other pollutants.
