Long-term memory(LTM)in the climate system has been well recognized and applied in different research fields,but the origins of this property are still not clear.In this work,the authors contribute to this issue by st...Long-term memory(LTM)in the climate system has been well recognized and applied in different research fields,but the origins of this property are still not clear.In this work,the authors contribute to this issue by studying model simulations under different scenarios.The global mean temperatures from pre-industrial control runs(pi Control),historical(all forcings)simulations,natural forcing only simulations(Historical Nat),greenhouse gas forcing only simulations(Historical GHG),etc.,are analyzed using the detrended fluctuation analysis.The authors find that the LTM already exists in the pi Control simulations,indicating the important roles of internal natural variability in producing the LTM.By comparing the results among different scenarios,the LTM from the piControl runs is further found to be strengthened by adding natural forcings such as the volcanic forcing and the solar forcing.Accordingly,the observed LTM in the climate system is suggested to be mainly controlled by both the‘internal’natural variability and the‘external’natural forcings.The anthropogenic forcings,however,may weaken the LTM.In the projections from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5,a weakening trend of the LTM strength is found.In view of the close relations between the climate memory and the climate predictability,a reduced predictability may be expected in a warming climate.展开更多
This study assesses vulnerability of agriculture to drought, using WINISAREG model and seasonal SPI2-index for eight climate regions （1951-2004）. Results relative to Plovdiv show that in soils of large TAW （total a...This study assesses vulnerability of agriculture to drought, using WINISAREG model and seasonal SPI2-index for eight climate regions （1951-2004）. Results relative to Plovdiv show that in soils of large TAW （total available water） net irrigation requirements NIRs range from 0 to 380 mm. In soils of small TAW, NIRs reach 440 mm in the very dry year. NIRs in Sofia/Silistra are about 100 mm smaller than in Plovdiv while in Sandanski they are 30-110 mm larger. Rainfed maize is associated with great yield variability （29% 〈 Cv 〈 72%）. Considering an economical RYD （relative yield decrease） threshold, 32% of years are risky when TA Wis large in Plovdiv that is double than in Sofia and half than in Sandanski. In North Bulgaria the risky years are 10% in Pleven/Silistra that is half than in Lom. In Plovdiv region reliable relationships （R2 〉 91%） were found relating the SPI2 ＂July-Aug.＂ with simulated RYD of rainfed maize while remaining relationships were less accurate （73% 〈 R2 〈 86%）. Economical losses are produced when High Peak Season SPI2 〈 ＋ 0.20 in Sandanski, SPI2 〈 - 0.50 in Plovdiv and SPI2 〈 - 0.90 in Sofia. In North Bulgaria the SPI2 threshold ranges from - 0.75 to - 1.50. Derived reliable relationships and SPl-thresholds are used for drought vulnerability mapping.展开更多
Deep convection in the Labrador Sea is confined within a small region in the southwest part of the basin.The strength of deep convection in this region is related to the local atmospheric and ocean characteristics,whi...Deep convection in the Labrador Sea is confined within a small region in the southwest part of the basin.The strength of deep convection in this region is related to the local atmospheric and ocean characteristics,which favor processes of deep convection preconditioning and intense air-sea exchange during the winter season.In this study,we explored the effect of eddy-induced flux transport on the stratification of the Labrador Sea and the properties of deep convection.Simulations from an eddy-resolving ocean model are presented for the Labrador Sea.The general circulation was well simulated by the model,including the seasonal cycle of the deep Labrador Current.The simulated distribution of the surface eddy kinetic energy was also close to that derived from Topex-Poseidon satellite altimeter data,but with smaller magnitude.The energy transfer diagnostics indicated that Irminger rings are generated by both baroclinic and barotropic processes; however,when they propagate into the interior basin,the barotropic process also disperses them by converting the eddy energy to the mean flow.In contrast to eddy-permitting simulations,deep convection in the Labrador Sea was better represented in the eddyresolving model regarding their lateral position.Further analysis indicated that the improvement might be due to the lateral eddy flux associated with the resolved Irminger rings in the eddy-resolving model,which contributes to a realistic position of the isopycnal dome in the Labrador Sea and correspondingly a realistic site of deep convection.展开更多
Kuwait's shrimp fishery presents typical tropical shrimp fishery characteristics with highly variable recruitment, fast growth and strong seasonal patterns. Both the General Production Model and Age-structured Mod...Kuwait's shrimp fishery presents typical tropical shrimp fishery characteristics with highly variable recruitment, fast growth and strong seasonal patterns. Both the General Production Model and Age-structured Model were chosen to assess the stock status of the Kuwait's shrimp fishery. The estimated Maximum Sustainable Yield(MSY) was 2 518 metric ton(t) with a corresponding fishing eff orts( f MSY) 7 265 standard boat-days from the General Production Model. Similar results from the Age-structured Model were 1 936 t and 6 449 boat-days respectively. Comparing these results with the average annual shrimp landings(1 772 t) and average fishing eff ort(9 710 boat-days) in the past 10 years, we concluded that the fishery was overfished. Model simulations to show the changes of recruitment, biomass and possible catch under different fishing eff ort scenarios indicated possible stock collapse if the fishing eff ort continually increase. But both shrimp recruitment and biomass will increase if the current fishing eff ort is reduced. Model simulations also showed a possible increase of MSY by delaying the opening or by closing the season earlier. Based on these results, recommendations to improve the management of Kuwait's shrimp fishery are presented.展开更多
A new flexible tether-net space robotic system used to capture space debris is presented in this paper. With a mass point assumption, a dynamic model of the tether-net system was established in orbital frame by applyi...A new flexible tether-net space robotic system used to capture space debris is presented in this paper. With a mass point assumption, a dynamic model of the tether-net system was established in orbital frame by applying Lagrange Equations. In order to investigate the net in-plane trajectories after being cast, the non-controlled R-bar and V-bar captures were simulated with ignoring the out-of-plane libration, and the effect of in-plane libration on the trajectories of the capture net was demonstrated by simulation results. With an effort to damp the in-plane libration, the control scheme based on tether tension was investigated, then an integrated control scheme was proposed by introducing thrusters into the system, and the nonlinear close-loop dynamics was linearised by feedforward strategy. Simulation results show that the feedforward controller is effective for in-plane libration damping and enables the capture net to track an expected trajectory.展开更多
Land use/cover change(LUCC)constitutes the spatial and temporal patterns of ecological security,and the construction of ecological networks is an effective way to ensure ecological security.Exploring the spatial and t...Land use/cover change(LUCC)constitutes the spatial and temporal patterns of ecological security,and the construction of ecological networks is an effective way to ensure ecological security.Exploring the spatial and temporal change characteristics of ecological network and analyzing the integrated relationship between LUCC and ecological security are crucial for ensuring regional ecological security.Gansu is one of the provinces with fragile ecological environment in China,and rapid changes in land use patterns in recent decades have threatened ecological security.Therefore,taking Gansu Province as the study area,this study simulated its land use pattern in 2050 using patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model based on the LUCC trend from 2000 to 2020 and integrated the LUCC into morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA)to identify ecological sources and extract the ecological corridors to construct ecological network using circuit theory.The results revealed that,according to the prediction results in 2050,the areas of cultivated land,forest land,grassland,water body,construction land,and unused land would be 63,447.52,39,510.80,148,115.18,4605.21,8368.89,and 161,752.40 km^(2),respectively.The number of ecological sources in Gansu Province would increase to 80,with a total area of 99,927.18 km^(2).The number of ecological corridors would increase to 191,with an estimated total length of 6120.66 km.Both ecological sources and ecological corridors showed a sparse distribution in the northwest and dense distribution in the southeast of the province at the spatial scale.The number of ecological pinch points would reach 312 and the total area would expect to increase to 842.84 km^(2),with the most pronounced increase in the Longdong region.Compared with 2020,the number and area of ecological barriers in 2050 would decrease significantly by 63 and 370.71 km^(2),respectively.In general,based on the prediction results,the connectivity of ecological network of Gansu Province would increase in 2050.To achieve the predicted ecological network in 2050,emphasis should be placed on the protection of cultivated land and ecological land,the establishment of ecological sources in desert areas,the reinforcement of the protection for existing ecological sources,and the construction of ecological corridors to enhance the stability of ecological network.This study provides valuable theoretical support and references for the future construction of ecological networks and regional land resource management decision-making.展开更多
The Erenhot-Huailai zone, as an important dust emission source area in northern China, affects the air quality of Beijing City, Tianjin City, and Hebei Province and human activities in this zone have a profound impact...The Erenhot-Huailai zone, as an important dust emission source area in northern China, affects the air quality of Beijing City, Tianjin City, and Hebei Province and human activities in this zone have a profound impact on surface dust emission. In order to explore the main source areas of surface dust emission and quantify the impacts of human activities on surface dust emission, we investigated the surface dust emission of different land types on the Erenhot-Huailai zone by model simulation, field observation, and comparative analysis. The results showed that the average annual inhalable atmospheric particles(PM_(10)) dust emission fluxes in arid grassland, Hunshandake Sandy Land, semi-arid grassland,semi-arid agro-pastoral area, dry sub-humid agro-pastoral area, and semi-humid agro-pastoral area were 4.41, 0.71, 3.64, 1.94, 0.24, and 0.14 t/hm^(2), respectively, and dust emission in these lands occurred mainly from April to May. Due to the influence of human activities on surface dust emission, dust emission fluxes from different land types were 1.66–4.41 times greater than those of their background areas, and dust emission fluxes from the main dust source areas were 1.66–3.89 times greater than those of their background areas. According to calculation, the amount of PM_(10) dust emission influenced by human disturbance accounted for up to 58.00% of the total dust emission in the study area. In addition, the comparative analysis of model simulation and field observation results showed that the simulated and observed dust emission fluxes were relatively close to each other, with differences ranging from 0.01 to 0.21 t/hm^(2) in different months, which indicated that the community land model version 4.5(CLM4.5) had a high accuracy. In conclusion, model simulation results have important reference significance for identifying dust source areas and quantifying the contribution of human activities to surface dust emission.展开更多
Vulnerability assessment is a systematic process to identify security gaps in the design and evaluation of physical protection systems.Adversarial path planning is a widely used method for identifying potential vulner...Vulnerability assessment is a systematic process to identify security gaps in the design and evaluation of physical protection systems.Adversarial path planning is a widely used method for identifying potential vulnerabilities and threats to the security and resilience of critical infrastructures.However,achieving efficient path optimization in complex large-scale three-dimensional(3D)scenes remains a significant challenge for vulnerability assessment.This paper introduces a novel A^(*)-algorithmic framework for 3D security modeling and vulnerability assessment.Within this framework,the 3D facility models were first developed in 3ds Max and then incorporated into Unity for A^(*)heuristic pathfinding.The A^(*)-heuristic pathfinding algorithm was implemented with a geometric probability model to refine the detection and distance fields and achieve a rational approximation of the cost to reach the goal.An admissible heuristic is ensured by incorporating the minimum probability of detection(P_(D)^(min))and diagonal distance to estimate the heuristic function.The 3D A^(*)heuristic search was demonstrated using a hypothetical laboratory facility,where a comparison was also carried out between the A^(*)and Dijkstra algorithms for optimal path identification.Comparative results indicate that the proposed A^(*)-heuristic algorithm effectively identifies the most vulnerable adversarial pathfinding with high efficiency.Finally,the paper discusses hidden phenomena and open issues in efficient 3D pathfinding for security applications.展开更多
To mill fine and well-defined micro-dimpled structures,a machining manner of spiral trajectory tool reciprocating motion,where the tool repeats the process of‘feed milling–retract–cutting feed–feed milling again’...To mill fine and well-defined micro-dimpled structures,a machining manner of spiral trajectory tool reciprocating motion,where the tool repeats the process of‘feed milling–retract–cutting feed–feed milling again’along the spiral trajectory,was proposed.From the kinematics analysis,it is found that the machining quality of micro-dimpled structures is highly dependent on the machining trajectory using spiral trajectory tool reciprocating motion.To reveal this causation,simulation modelling and experimental studies were carried out.A simulation model was developed to quantitatively and qualitatively investigate the influence of the trajectory discretization strategies(constant-angle and constant-arc length)and parameters(discrete angle,discrete arc length,and pitch)on surface texture and residual height of micro-dimpled structures.Subsequently,micro-dimpled structures were milled under different trajectory discretization strategies and parameters with spiral trajectory tool reciprocating motion.A comprehensive comparison between the milled results and simulation analysis was made based on geometry accuracy,surface morphology and surface roughness of milled dimples.Meanwhile,the errors and factors affecting the above three aspects were analyzed.The results demonstrate both the feasibility of the established simulation model and the machining capability of this machining way in milling high-quality micro-dimpled structures.Spiral trajectory tool reciprocating motion provides a new machining way for milling micro-dimpled structures and micro-dimpled functional surfaces.And an appropriate machining trajectory can be generated based on the optimized trajectory parameters,thus contributing to the improvement of machining quality and efficiency.展开更多
With the aid of multi-agent based modeling approach to complex systems, the hierarchy simulation models of carrier-based aircraft catapult launch are developed. Ocean, carrier, aircraft, and atmosphere are treated as ...With the aid of multi-agent based modeling approach to complex systems, the hierarchy simulation models of carrier-based aircraft catapult launch are developed. Ocean, carrier, aircraft, and atmosphere are treated as aggregation agents, the detailed components like catapult, landing gears, and disturbances are considered as meta-agents, which belong to their aggregation agent. Thus, the model with two layers is formed i.e. the aggregation agent layer and the meta-agent layer. The information communication among all agents is described. The meta-agents within one aggregation agent communicate with each other directly by information sharing, but the meta-agents, which belong to different aggregation agents exchange their information through the aggregation layer first, and then perceive it from the sharing environment, that is the aggregation agent. Thus, not only the hierarchy model is built, but also the environment perceived by each agent is specified. Meanwhile, the problem of balancing the independency of agent and the resource consumption brought by real-time communication within multi-agent system （MAS） is resolved. Each agent involved in carrier-based aircraft catapult launch is depicted, with considering the interaction within disturbed atmospheric environment and multiple motion bodies including carrier, aircraft, and landing gears. The models of reactive agents among them are derived based on tensors, and the perceived messages and inner frameworks of each agent are characterized. Finally, some results of a simulation instance are given. The simulation and modeling of dynamic system based on multi-agent system is of benefit to express physical concepts and logical hierarchy clearly and precisely. The system model can easily draw in kinds of other agents to achieve a precise simulation of more complex system. This modeling technique makes the complex integral dynamic equations of multibodies decompose into parallel operations of single agent, and it is convenient to expand, maintain, and reuse the program codes.展开更多
AIGaN/GaN HEMTs are investigated by numerical simulation from the self-consistent solution of Schr6dinger-Poisson-hydrodynamic （HD） systems. The influences of polarization charge and quantum effects are considered i...AIGaN/GaN HEMTs are investigated by numerical simulation from the self-consistent solution of Schr6dinger-Poisson-hydrodynamic （HD） systems. The influences of polarization charge and quantum effects are considered in this model. Then the two-dimensional conduction band and electron distribution, electron temperature characteristics, Id versus Vd and Id versus Vg, transfer characteristics and transconductance curves are obtained. Corresponding analysis and discussion based on the simulation results are subsequently given.展开更多
Validating simulation model is one of the important aspects for modeling and simulation. Some methods of validating model are compared and analyzed. Several typical methods, such as TIC’s inequality coefficient, gray...Validating simulation model is one of the important aspects for modeling and simulation. Some methods of validating model are compared and analyzed. Several typical methods, such as TIC’s inequality coefficient, gray interconnected analysis, direct spectrum estimation, maximum entropy spectral estimation based on Burg or Marple, are chosen and programmed in C language. Some examples by using the program are given. The results show that the program is available and it is best to adopt multi methods for validating models.展开更多
The epidermal growth factor receptor（EGFR）—tyrosine kinase inhibitors（TKIs） monotherapies have limited efficacy in the treatment of EGFR mutation-negative non-small cell lung cancers（NSCLCs）. In the present stu...The epidermal growth factor receptor（EGFR）—tyrosine kinase inhibitors（TKIs） monotherapies have limited efficacy in the treatment of EGFR mutation-negative non-small cell lung cancers（NSCLCs）. In the present study, we aimed to investigate the combined effect of erlotinib（ER） and cabozantinib（CAB） on NSCLC cell lines harboring wild-type EGFR and to optimize the dosage regimens using pharmacodynamic（PD） modeling and simulation. Therefore, we examined the combined effect of ER and CAB on cell viability, cloning, apoptosis induction, migration and growth dynamics in H1299 and A549 cells. PD modeling and simulation were also performed to quantitatively describe the H1299 cells growth dynamics and to optimize the dosage regimens as well. Our results showed that CAB effectively enhanced the sensitivity of both cell lines to ER. The PD models fitted the data well, and some important parameters were obtained. The exponential（λ_0） and linear（λ_1） growth rates of H1299 cells were 0.0241 h^（–1） and 360 cells？h^（–1）, respectively. The Emax of ER and CAB was 0.0091 h^（–1） and 0.0085 h^（–1）, and the EC50 was 0.812 μM and 1.16 μM, respectively. The synergistic effect observed in the experiments was further confirmed by the estimated combination index φ（1.37）,（95% confidence interval： 1.24–1.50）, obtained from PD modeling. Furthermore, the dosage regimens were optimized using simulations. In summary, both the experimental and modeling results demonstrated the synergistic interaction between ER and CAB in NSCLCs without EGFR mutations. Sequential combinations of ER and CAB provided an option for the therapy of the NSCLCs with wild-type EGFR, which would provide some references for preclinical study and translational research as well.展开更多
A novel simulation program with an integrated circuit emphasis（SPICE） model developed for trench-gate metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistor（M OSFET）devices is proposed. The drift region resistance was ...A novel simulation program with an integrated circuit emphasis（SPICE） model developed for trench-gate metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistor（M OSFET）devices is proposed. The drift region resistance was modeled according to the physical characteristics and the specific structure of the trench-gate MOSFET device. For the accurate simulation of dynamic characteristics, three important capacitances, gate-to-drain capacitance Cgd, gate-to-source capacitance Cgsand drain-to-source capacitance Cds, were modeled, respectively, in the proposed model. Furthermore,the self-heating effect, temperature effect and breakdown characteristic were taken into account; the self-heating model and breakdown model were built in the proposed model; and the temperature parameters of the model were revised. The proposed model is verified by experimental results, and the errors between measured data and simulation results of the novel model are less than 5%. Therefore, the model can give an accurate description for both the static and dynamic characteristics of the trench-gate MOSFET device.展开更多
A deep understanding of crop-water eco-physiological relations is the basis for quantifying plant physiological responses to soil water stress. Pot experiments were conducted to investigate the winter wheat crop-water...A deep understanding of crop-water eco-physiological relations is the basis for quantifying plant physiological responses to soil water stress. Pot experiments were conducted to investigate the winter wheat crop-water relations under both drought and waterlogging conditions in two sequential growing seasons from 2000 to 2002, and then the data were used to develop and validate models simulating the responses of winter wheat growth to drought and waterlogging stress. The experiment consisted of four treatments, waterlogging (keep 1 to 2 cm water layer depth above soil surface), control (70%-80% field capacity), light drought (40%-50% field capacity) and severe drought (30%-40% field capacity) with six replicates at five stages in the 2000-2001 growth season. Three soil water content treatments (waterlogging, control and drought) with two replicates were designed in the 2001-2002 growth season. Waterlogging and control treatments are the same as in the 2000-2001 growth season. For the drought treatment, no water was supplied and the soil moisture decreased from field capacity to wilting point. Leaf net photosynthetic rate, transpiration rate, predawn leaf water potential, soil water potential, soil water content and dry matter weight of individual organs were measured. Based on crop-water eco-physiological relations, drought and waterlogging stress factors for winter wheat growth simulation model were put forward. Drought stress factors integrated soil water availability, the sensitivity of different development stages and the difference between physiological processes (such as photosynthesis, transpiration and partitioning). The quantification of waterlogging stress factor considered different crop species, soil water status, waterlogging days and sensitivity at different growth stages. Data sets from the pot experiments revealed favorable performance reliability for the simulation sub-models with the drought and waterlogging stress factors.展开更多
Since remote sensing can provide information on the actual status of an agricultural crop, the integration between remote sensing data and crop growth simulation models has become an important trend for yield estimati...Since remote sensing can provide information on the actual status of an agricultural crop, the integration between remote sensing data and crop growth simulation models has become an important trend for yield estimation and prediction.The main objective of this research was to combine a rice growth simulation model with remote sensing data to estimate rice grain yield for different growing seasons leading to an assessment of rice yield at regional levels. Integration between NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) data and the rice growth simulation model ORYZA1 to develop a new software, which was named as Rice-SRS Model, resulted in accurate estimates for rice yield in Shaoxing, China, with an estimation error reduced to 1.03% and 0.79% over-estimation and 0.79% under-estimation for early, single and late season rice, respectively. Selecting suitable dates for remote sensing images was an important factor which could influence estimation accuracy. Thus, given the different growing periods for each rice season, four images were needed for early and late rice, while five images were preferable for single season rice.Estimating rice yield using two or three images was possible, however, if images were obtained during the panicle initiation and heading stages.展开更多
Using physical simulation models, rainfall-induced landslides have been simulated under various rainfall intensities. During these simulations, we have monitored the physical and mechanical behaviors of the landslide ...Using physical simulation models, rainfall-induced landslides have been simulated under various rainfall intensities. During these simulations, we have monitored the physical and mechanical behaviors of the landslide over the slip surface at different heights of the model slopes, as well as taking the whole slope to identify its deformation and failure processes. The results show that the rainfall duration corresponding to the initiation of the debris landslide and is exponentially related to rainfall intensity. Corresponding to the three intervals of the rainfall intensity, there are three types of slope failure modes:(1) the small-slump failure at the leading edge of the slope;(2) the block-slump failure but sometimes there are large blocks sliding down;and(3) the bulk failure but sometimes there is the block-slump failure. Based on the total rainfall-lasting time and the associated proportion of failed mass volume, the early warning of debris landslide can be classified into five grades, i.e., red, orange to red, orange, yellow to orange and yellow, which correspond to the five slope failure modes, respectively.展开更多
Six paddy soils of Shanghai, China, were studied after 120 days of anaerobicincubation at 25 deg C and 35 deg C. Four models, the effective accumulated temperature model, theone-component first-order exponential model...Six paddy soils of Shanghai, China, were studied after 120 days of anaerobicincubation at 25 deg C and 35 deg C. Four models, the effective accumulated temperature model, theone-component first-order exponential model (the one-pool model), the two-component first-orderexponential model (the two-pool model), and the two-component first-order plus zero-orderexponential model including a constant term (the special model), were fitted to the data of observedmineral-N during incubation using non-linear regression procedures. The two-pool model and thespecial model gave the best fits amongst the four models, and parameters in the special model weremore reasonable than those in the other three. Results showed that the special model gave a betterprediction of nitrogen mineralization under flooded conditions than the other three models.展开更多
In this study, a regional air quality model system （RAQMS） was applied to investigate the spatial distributions and seasonal variations of atmospheric aerosols in 2006 over East Asia. Model validations demonstrated ...In this study, a regional air quality model system （RAQMS） was applied to investigate the spatial distributions and seasonal variations of atmospheric aerosols in 2006 over East Asia. Model validations demonstrated that RAQMS was able to reproduce the evolution processes of aerosol components reasonably well. Ground-level PM10 （particles with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm） concentrations were highest in spring and lowest in summer and were characterized by three maximum centers： the Taklimakan Desert （-1000 μg m^-3）, the Gobi Desert （-400 μg m^-3）, and the Huabei Plain （- 300 μg m^-3） of China. Vertically, high PM10 concentrations ranging from 100 μg m-3 to 250 μg m-3 occurred from the surface to an altitude of 6000 m at 30°-45°N in spring. In winter, the vertical gradient was so large that most aerosols were restricted in the boundary layer. Both sulfate and ammonium reached their highest concentrations in autumn, while nitrate reached its maximum level in winter. Black carbon and organic carbon aerosol concentrations reached maximums in winter. Soil dust were strongest in spring, whereas sea salt exerted the strongest influence on the coastal regions of eastern China in summer. The estimated burden of anthropogenic aerosols was largest in winter （1621 Gg） and smallest in summer （1040 Gg）. The sulfate burden accounted for -42% of the total anthropogenic aerosol burden. The dust burden was about twice the anthropogenic aerosol burden, implying the potentially important impacts of the natural aerosols on air quality and climate over East Asia.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China grant number 41675088the CAS Pioneer Hundred Talents Program。
文摘Long-term memory(LTM)in the climate system has been well recognized and applied in different research fields,but the origins of this property are still not clear.In this work,the authors contribute to this issue by studying model simulations under different scenarios.The global mean temperatures from pre-industrial control runs(pi Control),historical(all forcings)simulations,natural forcing only simulations(Historical Nat),greenhouse gas forcing only simulations(Historical GHG),etc.,are analyzed using the detrended fluctuation analysis.The authors find that the LTM already exists in the pi Control simulations,indicating the important roles of internal natural variability in producing the LTM.By comparing the results among different scenarios,the LTM from the piControl runs is further found to be strengthened by adding natural forcings such as the volcanic forcing and the solar forcing.Accordingly,the observed LTM in the climate system is suggested to be mainly controlled by both the‘internal’natural variability and the‘external’natural forcings.The anthropogenic forcings,however,may weaken the LTM.In the projections from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5,a weakening trend of the LTM strength is found.In view of the close relations between the climate memory and the climate predictability,a reduced predictability may be expected in a warming climate.
文摘This study assesses vulnerability of agriculture to drought, using WINISAREG model and seasonal SPI2-index for eight climate regions （1951-2004）. Results relative to Plovdiv show that in soils of large TAW （total available water） net irrigation requirements NIRs range from 0 to 380 mm. In soils of small TAW, NIRs reach 440 mm in the very dry year. NIRs in Sofia/Silistra are about 100 mm smaller than in Plovdiv while in Sandanski they are 30-110 mm larger. Rainfed maize is associated with great yield variability （29% 〈 Cv 〈 72%）. Considering an economical RYD （relative yield decrease） threshold, 32% of years are risky when TA Wis large in Plovdiv that is double than in Sofia and half than in Sandanski. In North Bulgaria the risky years are 10% in Pleven/Silistra that is half than in Lom. In Plovdiv region reliable relationships （R2 〉 91%） were found relating the SPI2 ＂July-Aug.＂ with simulated RYD of rainfed maize while remaining relationships were less accurate （73% 〈 R2 〈 86%）. Economical losses are produced when High Peak Season SPI2 〈 ＋ 0.20 in Sandanski, SPI2 〈 - 0.50 in Plovdiv and SPI2 〈 - 0.90 in Sofia. In North Bulgaria the SPI2 threshold ranges from - 0.75 to - 1.50. Derived reliable relationships and SPl-thresholds are used for drought vulnerability mapping.
基金funded by the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Science through projects GOAPP and GR-631 and NSERCThe support of ACEnet (the Atlantic Computational Excellence Network), which provided the computing assistance for this work
文摘Deep convection in the Labrador Sea is confined within a small region in the southwest part of the basin.The strength of deep convection in this region is related to the local atmospheric and ocean characteristics,which favor processes of deep convection preconditioning and intense air-sea exchange during the winter season.In this study,we explored the effect of eddy-induced flux transport on the stratification of the Labrador Sea and the properties of deep convection.Simulations from an eddy-resolving ocean model are presented for the Labrador Sea.The general circulation was well simulated by the model,including the seasonal cycle of the deep Labrador Current.The simulated distribution of the surface eddy kinetic energy was also close to that derived from Topex-Poseidon satellite altimeter data,but with smaller magnitude.The energy transfer diagnostics indicated that Irminger rings are generated by both baroclinic and barotropic processes; however,when they propagate into the interior basin,the barotropic process also disperses them by converting the eddy energy to the mean flow.In contrast to eddy-permitting simulations,deep convection in the Labrador Sea was better represented in the eddyresolving model regarding their lateral position.Further analysis indicated that the improvement might be due to the lateral eddy flux associated with the resolved Irminger rings in the eddy-resolving model,which contributes to a realistic position of the isopycnal dome in the Labrador Sea and correspondingly a realistic site of deep convection.
基金Supported by the project "A Comprehensive Management Strategy for Long-term Sustainability of Kuwait’s Shrimp Stock",which was jointly supported by Kuwait Foundation for the Advancement of Sciences(KFAS)the Public Authority for Agricultural Affairs and Fisheries Resources of the State of Kuwait(PAAFR)the Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research
文摘Kuwait's shrimp fishery presents typical tropical shrimp fishery characteristics with highly variable recruitment, fast growth and strong seasonal patterns. Both the General Production Model and Age-structured Model were chosen to assess the stock status of the Kuwait's shrimp fishery. The estimated Maximum Sustainable Yield(MSY) was 2 518 metric ton(t) with a corresponding fishing eff orts( f MSY) 7 265 standard boat-days from the General Production Model. Similar results from the Age-structured Model were 1 936 t and 6 449 boat-days respectively. Comparing these results with the average annual shrimp landings(1 772 t) and average fishing eff ort(9 710 boat-days) in the past 10 years, we concluded that the fishery was overfished. Model simulations to show the changes of recruitment, biomass and possible catch under different fishing eff ort scenarios indicated possible stock collapse if the fishing eff ort continually increase. But both shrimp recruitment and biomass will increase if the current fishing eff ort is reduced. Model simulations also showed a possible increase of MSY by delaying the opening or by closing the season earlier. Based on these results, recommendations to improve the management of Kuwait's shrimp fishery are presented.
基金Sponsored by the High Technology Research & Development Program of China(Grant No.2002AA742012)
文摘A new flexible tether-net space robotic system used to capture space debris is presented in this paper. With a mass point assumption, a dynamic model of the tether-net system was established in orbital frame by applying Lagrange Equations. In order to investigate the net in-plane trajectories after being cast, the non-controlled R-bar and V-bar captures were simulated with ignoring the out-of-plane libration, and the effect of in-plane libration on the trajectories of the capture net was demonstrated by simulation results. With an effort to damp the in-plane libration, the control scheme based on tether tension was investigated, then an integrated control scheme was proposed by introducing thrusters into the system, and the nonlinear close-loop dynamics was linearised by feedforward strategy. Simulation results show that the feedforward controller is effective for in-plane libration damping and enables the capture net to track an expected trajectory.
基金supported by the Science Fund for the Gansu Provincial Natural Science Foundation Project(22JR5RA339).
文摘Land use/cover change(LUCC)constitutes the spatial and temporal patterns of ecological security,and the construction of ecological networks is an effective way to ensure ecological security.Exploring the spatial and temporal change characteristics of ecological network and analyzing the integrated relationship between LUCC and ecological security are crucial for ensuring regional ecological security.Gansu is one of the provinces with fragile ecological environment in China,and rapid changes in land use patterns in recent decades have threatened ecological security.Therefore,taking Gansu Province as the study area,this study simulated its land use pattern in 2050 using patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model based on the LUCC trend from 2000 to 2020 and integrated the LUCC into morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA)to identify ecological sources and extract the ecological corridors to construct ecological network using circuit theory.The results revealed that,according to the prediction results in 2050,the areas of cultivated land,forest land,grassland,water body,construction land,and unused land would be 63,447.52,39,510.80,148,115.18,4605.21,8368.89,and 161,752.40 km^(2),respectively.The number of ecological sources in Gansu Province would increase to 80,with a total area of 99,927.18 km^(2).The number of ecological corridors would increase to 191,with an estimated total length of 6120.66 km.Both ecological sources and ecological corridors showed a sparse distribution in the northwest and dense distribution in the southeast of the province at the spatial scale.The number of ecological pinch points would reach 312 and the total area would expect to increase to 842.84 km^(2),with the most pronounced increase in the Longdong region.Compared with 2020,the number and area of ecological barriers in 2050 would decrease significantly by 63 and 370.71 km^(2),respectively.In general,based on the prediction results,the connectivity of ecological network of Gansu Province would increase in 2050.To achieve the predicted ecological network in 2050,emphasis should be placed on the protection of cultivated land and ecological land,the establishment of ecological sources in desert areas,the reinforcement of the protection for existing ecological sources,and the construction of ecological corridors to enhance the stability of ecological network.This study provides valuable theoretical support and references for the future construction of ecological networks and regional land resource management decision-making.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2016YFA0601901)Basic Scientific Research of Henan Academy of Sciences (240601083)Joint Fund of Henan Province Science and Technology Research and Development Program (225200810047)。
文摘The Erenhot-Huailai zone, as an important dust emission source area in northern China, affects the air quality of Beijing City, Tianjin City, and Hebei Province and human activities in this zone have a profound impact on surface dust emission. In order to explore the main source areas of surface dust emission and quantify the impacts of human activities on surface dust emission, we investigated the surface dust emission of different land types on the Erenhot-Huailai zone by model simulation, field observation, and comparative analysis. The results showed that the average annual inhalable atmospheric particles(PM_(10)) dust emission fluxes in arid grassland, Hunshandake Sandy Land, semi-arid grassland,semi-arid agro-pastoral area, dry sub-humid agro-pastoral area, and semi-humid agro-pastoral area were 4.41, 0.71, 3.64, 1.94, 0.24, and 0.14 t/hm^(2), respectively, and dust emission in these lands occurred mainly from April to May. Due to the influence of human activities on surface dust emission, dust emission fluxes from different land types were 1.66–4.41 times greater than those of their background areas, and dust emission fluxes from the main dust source areas were 1.66–3.89 times greater than those of their background areas. According to calculation, the amount of PM_(10) dust emission influenced by human disturbance accounted for up to 58.00% of the total dust emission in the study area. In addition, the comparative analysis of model simulation and field observation results showed that the simulated and observed dust emission fluxes were relatively close to each other, with differences ranging from 0.01 to 0.21 t/hm^(2) in different months, which indicated that the community land model version 4.5(CLM4.5) had a high accuracy. In conclusion, model simulation results have important reference significance for identifying dust source areas and quantifying the contribution of human activities to surface dust emission.
基金supported by the fundings from 2024 Young Talents Program for Science and Technology Thinking Tanks(No.XMSB20240711041)2024 Student Research Program on Dynamic Simulation and Force-on-Force Exercise of Nuclear Security in 3D Interactive Environment Using Reinforcement Learning,Natural Science Foundation of Top Talent of SZTU(No.GDRC202407)+2 种基金Shenzhen Science and Technology Program(No.KCXFZ20240903092603005)Shenzhen Science and Technology Program(No.JCYJ20241202124703004)Shenzhen Science and Technology Program(No.KJZD20230923114117032)。
文摘Vulnerability assessment is a systematic process to identify security gaps in the design and evaluation of physical protection systems.Adversarial path planning is a widely used method for identifying potential vulnerabilities and threats to the security and resilience of critical infrastructures.However,achieving efficient path optimization in complex large-scale three-dimensional(3D)scenes remains a significant challenge for vulnerability assessment.This paper introduces a novel A^(*)-algorithmic framework for 3D security modeling and vulnerability assessment.Within this framework,the 3D facility models were first developed in 3ds Max and then incorporated into Unity for A^(*)heuristic pathfinding.The A^(*)-heuristic pathfinding algorithm was implemented with a geometric probability model to refine the detection and distance fields and achieve a rational approximation of the cost to reach the goal.An admissible heuristic is ensured by incorporating the minimum probability of detection(P_(D)^(min))and diagonal distance to estimate the heuristic function.The 3D A^(*)heuristic search was demonstrated using a hypothetical laboratory facility,where a comparison was also carried out between the A^(*)and Dijkstra algorithms for optimal path identification.Comparative results indicate that the proposed A^(*)-heuristic algorithm effectively identifies the most vulnerable adversarial pathfinding with high efficiency.Finally,the paper discusses hidden phenomena and open issues in efficient 3D pathfinding for security applications.
基金co-supported the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52235010)the Heilongjiang Postdoctoral Fund(No.LBH-Z22136)the New Era Longjiang Excellent Master and Doctoral Dissertation Fund(No.LJYXL2022-057).
文摘To mill fine and well-defined micro-dimpled structures,a machining manner of spiral trajectory tool reciprocating motion,where the tool repeats the process of‘feed milling–retract–cutting feed–feed milling again’along the spiral trajectory,was proposed.From the kinematics analysis,it is found that the machining quality of micro-dimpled structures is highly dependent on the machining trajectory using spiral trajectory tool reciprocating motion.To reveal this causation,simulation modelling and experimental studies were carried out.A simulation model was developed to quantitatively and qualitatively investigate the influence of the trajectory discretization strategies(constant-angle and constant-arc length)and parameters(discrete angle,discrete arc length,and pitch)on surface texture and residual height of micro-dimpled structures.Subsequently,micro-dimpled structures were milled under different trajectory discretization strategies and parameters with spiral trajectory tool reciprocating motion.A comprehensive comparison between the milled results and simulation analysis was made based on geometry accuracy,surface morphology and surface roughness of milled dimples.Meanwhile,the errors and factors affecting the above three aspects were analyzed.The results demonstrate both the feasibility of the established simulation model and the machining capability of this machining way in milling high-quality micro-dimpled structures.Spiral trajectory tool reciprocating motion provides a new machining way for milling micro-dimpled structures and micro-dimpled functional surfaces.And an appropriate machining trajectory can be generated based on the optimized trajectory parameters,thus contributing to the improvement of machining quality and efficiency.
基金Aeronautical Science Foundation of China (2006ZA51004)
文摘With the aid of multi-agent based modeling approach to complex systems, the hierarchy simulation models of carrier-based aircraft catapult launch are developed. Ocean, carrier, aircraft, and atmosphere are treated as aggregation agents, the detailed components like catapult, landing gears, and disturbances are considered as meta-agents, which belong to their aggregation agent. Thus, the model with two layers is formed i.e. the aggregation agent layer and the meta-agent layer. The information communication among all agents is described. The meta-agents within one aggregation agent communicate with each other directly by information sharing, but the meta-agents, which belong to different aggregation agents exchange their information through the aggregation layer first, and then perceive it from the sharing environment, that is the aggregation agent. Thus, not only the hierarchy model is built, but also the environment perceived by each agent is specified. Meanwhile, the problem of balancing the independency of agent and the resource consumption brought by real-time communication within multi-agent system （MAS） is resolved. Each agent involved in carrier-based aircraft catapult launch is depicted, with considering the interaction within disturbed atmospheric environment and multiple motion bodies including carrier, aircraft, and landing gears. The models of reactive agents among them are derived based on tensors, and the perceived messages and inner frameworks of each agent are characterized. Finally, some results of a simulation instance are given. The simulation and modeling of dynamic system based on multi-agent system is of benefit to express physical concepts and logical hierarchy clearly and precisely. The system model can easily draw in kinds of other agents to achieve a precise simulation of more complex system. This modeling technique makes the complex integral dynamic equations of multibodies decompose into parallel operations of single agent, and it is convenient to expand, maintain, and reuse the program codes.
文摘AIGaN/GaN HEMTs are investigated by numerical simulation from the self-consistent solution of Schr6dinger-Poisson-hydrodynamic （HD） systems. The influences of polarization charge and quantum effects are considered in this model. Then the two-dimensional conduction band and electron distribution, electron temperature characteristics, Id versus Vd and Id versus Vg, transfer characteristics and transconductance curves are obtained. Corresponding analysis and discussion based on the simulation results are subsequently given.
文摘Validating simulation model is one of the important aspects for modeling and simulation. Some methods of validating model are compared and analyzed. Several typical methods, such as TIC’s inequality coefficient, gray interconnected analysis, direct spectrum estimation, maximum entropy spectral estimation based on Burg or Marple, are chosen and programmed in C language. Some examples by using the program are given. The results show that the program is available and it is best to adopt multi methods for validating models.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC,Grant No.81273583)
文摘The epidermal growth factor receptor（EGFR）—tyrosine kinase inhibitors（TKIs） monotherapies have limited efficacy in the treatment of EGFR mutation-negative non-small cell lung cancers（NSCLCs）. In the present study, we aimed to investigate the combined effect of erlotinib（ER） and cabozantinib（CAB） on NSCLC cell lines harboring wild-type EGFR and to optimize the dosage regimens using pharmacodynamic（PD） modeling and simulation. Therefore, we examined the combined effect of ER and CAB on cell viability, cloning, apoptosis induction, migration and growth dynamics in H1299 and A549 cells. PD modeling and simulation were also performed to quantitatively describe the H1299 cells growth dynamics and to optimize the dosage regimens as well. Our results showed that CAB effectively enhanced the sensitivity of both cell lines to ER. The PD models fitted the data well, and some important parameters were obtained. The exponential（λ_0） and linear（λ_1） growth rates of H1299 cells were 0.0241 h^（–1） and 360 cells？h^（–1）, respectively. The Emax of ER and CAB was 0.0091 h^（–1） and 0.0085 h^（–1）, and the EC50 was 0.812 μM and 1.16 μM, respectively. The synergistic effect observed in the experiments was further confirmed by the estimated combination index φ（1.37）,（95% confidence interval： 1.24–1.50）, obtained from PD modeling. Furthermore, the dosage regimens were optimized using simulations. In summary, both the experimental and modeling results demonstrated the synergistic interaction between ER and CAB in NSCLCs without EGFR mutations. Sequential combinations of ER and CAB provided an option for the therapy of the NSCLCs with wild-type EGFR, which would provide some references for preclinical study and translational research as well.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61604038)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2015M580376)+1 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.BK20160691)Jiangsu Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.1501010A)
文摘A novel simulation program with an integrated circuit emphasis（SPICE） model developed for trench-gate metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistor（M OSFET）devices is proposed. The drift region resistance was modeled according to the physical characteristics and the specific structure of the trench-gate MOSFET device. For the accurate simulation of dynamic characteristics, three important capacitances, gate-to-drain capacitance Cgd, gate-to-source capacitance Cgsand drain-to-source capacitance Cds, were modeled, respectively, in the proposed model. Furthermore,the self-heating effect, temperature effect and breakdown characteristic were taken into account; the self-heating model and breakdown model were built in the proposed model; and the temperature parameters of the model were revised. The proposed model is verified by experimental results, and the errors between measured data and simulation results of the novel model are less than 5%. Therefore, the model can give an accurate description for both the static and dynamic characteristics of the trench-gate MOSFET device.
基金Project supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program) (No. 2003AA209030) High Technology Research and Development Program of Jiangsu Province (No. BG2004320) the National Natural Science Foundation
文摘A deep understanding of crop-water eco-physiological relations is the basis for quantifying plant physiological responses to soil water stress. Pot experiments were conducted to investigate the winter wheat crop-water relations under both drought and waterlogging conditions in two sequential growing seasons from 2000 to 2002, and then the data were used to develop and validate models simulating the responses of winter wheat growth to drought and waterlogging stress. The experiment consisted of four treatments, waterlogging (keep 1 to 2 cm water layer depth above soil surface), control (70%-80% field capacity), light drought (40%-50% field capacity) and severe drought (30%-40% field capacity) with six replicates at five stages in the 2000-2001 growth season. Three soil water content treatments (waterlogging, control and drought) with two replicates were designed in the 2001-2002 growth season. Waterlogging and control treatments are the same as in the 2000-2001 growth season. For the drought treatment, no water was supplied and the soil moisture decreased from field capacity to wilting point. Leaf net photosynthetic rate, transpiration rate, predawn leaf water potential, soil water potential, soil water content and dry matter weight of individual organs were measured. Based on crop-water eco-physiological relations, drought and waterlogging stress factors for winter wheat growth simulation model were put forward. Drought stress factors integrated soil water availability, the sensitivity of different development stages and the difference between physiological processes (such as photosynthesis, transpiration and partitioning). The quantification of waterlogging stress factor considered different crop species, soil water status, waterlogging days and sensitivity at different growth stages. Data sets from the pot experiments revealed favorable performance reliability for the simulation sub-models with the drought and waterlogging stress factors.
基金Project supported by the Commission of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defence, China (No.Y97# 14-6-2).
文摘Since remote sensing can provide information on the actual status of an agricultural crop, the integration between remote sensing data and crop growth simulation models has become an important trend for yield estimation and prediction.The main objective of this research was to combine a rice growth simulation model with remote sensing data to estimate rice grain yield for different growing seasons leading to an assessment of rice yield at regional levels. Integration between NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) data and the rice growth simulation model ORYZA1 to develop a new software, which was named as Rice-SRS Model, resulted in accurate estimates for rice yield in Shaoxing, China, with an estimation error reduced to 1.03% and 0.79% over-estimation and 0.79% under-estimation for early, single and late season rice, respectively. Selecting suitable dates for remote sensing images was an important factor which could influence estimation accuracy. Thus, given the different growing periods for each rice season, four images were needed for early and late rice, while five images were preferable for single season rice.Estimating rice yield using two or three images was possible, however, if images were obtained during the panicle initiation and heading stages.
基金This research is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41807274,41630640)the Sichuan Science and Technology Program(No.2019E0R2230230)the Scientific Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.KFJ-STS-QYZD-172)。
文摘Using physical simulation models, rainfall-induced landslides have been simulated under various rainfall intensities. During these simulations, we have monitored the physical and mechanical behaviors of the landslide over the slip surface at different heights of the model slopes, as well as taking the whole slope to identify its deformation and failure processes. The results show that the rainfall duration corresponding to the initiation of the debris landslide and is exponentially related to rainfall intensity. Corresponding to the three intervals of the rainfall intensity, there are three types of slope failure modes:(1) the small-slump failure at the leading edge of the slope;(2) the block-slump failure but sometimes there are large blocks sliding down;and(3) the bulk failure but sometimes there is the block-slump failure. Based on the total rainfall-lasting time and the associated proportion of failed mass volume, the early warning of debris landslide can be classified into five grades, i.e., red, orange to red, orange, yellow to orange and yellow, which correspond to the five slope failure modes, respectively.
基金Project supported by the National Key Basic Research Support Foundation (NKBRSF) of China (No. G199901881).
文摘Six paddy soils of Shanghai, China, were studied after 120 days of anaerobicincubation at 25 deg C and 35 deg C. Four models, the effective accumulated temperature model, theone-component first-order exponential model (the one-pool model), the two-component first-orderexponential model (the two-pool model), and the two-component first-order plus zero-orderexponential model including a constant term (the special model), were fitted to the data of observedmineral-N during incubation using non-linear regression procedures. The two-pool model and thespecial model gave the best fits amongst the four models, and parameters in the special model weremore reasonable than those in the other three. Results showed that the special model gave a betterprediction of nitrogen mineralization under flooded conditions than the other three models.
基金supported by the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX2-YW-Q11-03)the "Strategic Priority Research Program" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA05100502)+2 种基金the National 973 Project of China (Grant No. 2010CB950804)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (GrantNo. 41075106)the Hundred Talents Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
文摘In this study, a regional air quality model system （RAQMS） was applied to investigate the spatial distributions and seasonal variations of atmospheric aerosols in 2006 over East Asia. Model validations demonstrated that RAQMS was able to reproduce the evolution processes of aerosol components reasonably well. Ground-level PM10 （particles with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm） concentrations were highest in spring and lowest in summer and were characterized by three maximum centers： the Taklimakan Desert （-1000 μg m^-3）, the Gobi Desert （-400 μg m^-3）, and the Huabei Plain （- 300 μg m^-3） of China. Vertically, high PM10 concentrations ranging from 100 μg m-3 to 250 μg m-3 occurred from the surface to an altitude of 6000 m at 30°-45°N in spring. In winter, the vertical gradient was so large that most aerosols were restricted in the boundary layer. Both sulfate and ammonium reached their highest concentrations in autumn, while nitrate reached its maximum level in winter. Black carbon and organic carbon aerosol concentrations reached maximums in winter. Soil dust were strongest in spring, whereas sea salt exerted the strongest influence on the coastal regions of eastern China in summer. The estimated burden of anthropogenic aerosols was largest in winter （1621 Gg） and smallest in summer （1040 Gg）. The sulfate burden accounted for -42% of the total anthropogenic aerosol burden. The dust burden was about twice the anthropogenic aerosol burden, implying the potentially important impacts of the natural aerosols on air quality and climate over East Asia.
