The results of mass appraisal in many countries are used as a basis for calculating the amount of real estate tax,therefore,regardless of the methods used to calculate it,the resulting value should be as close as poss...The results of mass appraisal in many countries are used as a basis for calculating the amount of real estate tax,therefore,regardless of the methods used to calculate it,the resulting value should be as close as possible to the market value of the real estate to maintain a balance of interests between the state and the rights holders.In practice,this condition is not always met,since,firstly,the quality of market data is often very low,and secondly,some markets are characterized by low activity,which is expressed in a deficit of information on asking prices.The aim of the work is ecological valuation of land use:how regression-based mass appraisal can inform ecological conservation,land degradation,and sustainable land management.Four multiple regression models were constructed for AI generated map of land plots for recreational use in St.Petersburg(Russia)with different volumes of market information(32,30,20 and 15 units of market information with four price-forming factors).During the analysis of the quality of the models,it was revealed that the best result is shown by the model built on the maximum sample size,then the model based on 15 analogs,which proves that a larger number of analog objects does not always allow us to achieve better results,since the more analog objects there are.展开更多
The work proposes a distributed Kalman filtering(KF)algorithm to track a time-varying unknown signal process for a stochastic regression model over network systems in a cooperative way.We provide the stability analysi...The work proposes a distributed Kalman filtering(KF)algorithm to track a time-varying unknown signal process for a stochastic regression model over network systems in a cooperative way.We provide the stability analysis of the proposed distributed KF algorithm without independent and stationary signal assumptions,which implies that the theoretical results are able to be applied to stochastic feedback systems.Note that the main difficulty of stability analysis lies in analyzing the properties of the product of non-independent and non-stationary random matrices involved in the error equation.We employ analysis techniques such as stochastic Lyapunov function,stability theory of stochastic systems,and algebraic graph theory to deal with the above issue.The stochastic spatio-temporal cooperative information condition shows the cooperative property of multiple sensors that even though any local sensor cannot track the time-varying unknown signal,the distributed KF algorithm can be utilized to finish the filtering task in a cooperative way.At last,we illustrate the property of the proposed distributed KF algorithm by a simulation example.展开更多
To accurately model flows with shock waves using staggered-grid Lagrangian hydrodynamics, the artificial viscosity has to be introduced to convert kinetic energy into internal energy, thereby increasing the entropy ac...To accurately model flows with shock waves using staggered-grid Lagrangian hydrodynamics, the artificial viscosity has to be introduced to convert kinetic energy into internal energy, thereby increasing the entropy across shocks. Determining the appropriate strength of the artificial viscosity is an art and strongly depends on the particular problem and experience of the researcher. The objective of this study is to pose the problem of finding the appropriate strength of the artificial viscosity as an optimization problem and solve this problem using machine learning (ML) tools, specifically using surrogate models based on Gaussian Process regression (GPR) and Bayesian analysis. We describe the optimization method and discuss various practical details of its implementation. The shock-containing problems for which we apply this method all have been implemented in the LANL code FLAG (Burton in Connectivity structures and differencing techniques for staggered-grid free-Lagrange hydrodynamics, Tech. Rep. UCRL-JC-110555, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, 1992, 1992, in Consistent finite-volume discretization of hydrodynamic conservation laws for unstructured grids, Tech. Rep. CRL-JC-118788, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, 1992, 1994, Multidimensional discretization of conservation laws for unstructured polyhedral grids, Tech. Rep. UCRL-JC-118306, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, 1992, 1994, in FLAG, a multi-dimensional, multiple mesh, adaptive free-Lagrange, hydrodynamics code. In: NECDC, 1992). First, we apply ML to find optimal values to isolated shock problems of different strengths. Second, we apply ML to optimize the viscosity for a one-dimensional (1D) propagating detonation problem based on Zel’dovich-von Neumann-Doring (ZND) (Fickett and Davis in Detonation: theory and experiment. Dover books on physics. Dover Publications, Mineola, 2000) detonation theory using a reactive burn model. We compare results for default (currently used values in FLAG) and optimized values of the artificial viscosity for these problems demonstrating the potential for significant improvement in the accuracy of computations.展开更多
As maritime activities increase globally,there is a greater dependency on technology in monitoring,control,and surveillance of vessel activity.One of the most prominent systems for monitoring vessel activity is the Au...As maritime activities increase globally,there is a greater dependency on technology in monitoring,control,and surveillance of vessel activity.One of the most prominent systems for monitoring vessel activity is the Automatic Identification System(AIS).An increase in both vessels fitted with AIS transponders and satellite and terrestrial AIS receivers has resulted in a significant increase in AIS messages received globally.This resultant rich spatial and temporal data source related to vessel activity provides analysts with the ability to perform enhanced vessel movement analytics,of which a pertinent example is the improvement of vessel location predictions.In this paper,we propose a novel strategy for predicting future locations of vessels making use of historic AIS data.The proposed method uses a Linear Regression Model(LRM)and utilizes historic AIS movement data in the form of a-priori generated spatial maps of the course over ground(LRMAC).The LRMAC is an accurate low complexity first-order method that is easy to implement operationally and shows promising results in areas where there is a consistency in the directionality of historic vessel movement.In areas where the historic directionality of vessel movement is diverse,such as areas close to harbors and ports,the LRMAC defaults to the LRM.The proposed LRMAC method is compared to the Single-Point Neighbor Search(SPNS),which is also a first-order method and has a similar level of computational complexity,and for the use case of predicting tanker and cargo vessel trajectories up to 8 hours into the future,the LRMAC showed improved results both in terms of prediction accuracy and execution time.展开更多
Carbon emissions have become a critical concern in the global effort to combat climate change,with each country or region contributing differently based on its economic structures,energy sources,and industrial activit...Carbon emissions have become a critical concern in the global effort to combat climate change,with each country or region contributing differently based on its economic structures,energy sources,and industrial activities.The factors influencing carbon emissions vary across countries and sectors.This study examined the factors influencing CO_(2)emissions in the 7 South American countries including Argentina,Brazil,Chile,Colombia,Ecuador,Peru,and Venezuela.We used the Seemingly Unrelated Regression(SUR)model to analyse the relationship of CO_(2)emissions with gross domestic product(GDP),renewable energy use,urbanization,industrialization,international tourism,agricultural productivity,and forest area based on data from 2000 to 2022.According to the SUR model,we found that GDP and industrialization had a moderate positive effect on CO_(2)emissions,whereas renewable energy use had a moderate negative effect on CO_(2)emissions.International tourism generally had a positive impact on CO_(2)emissions,while forest area tended to decrease CO_(2)emissions.Different variables had different effects on CO_(2)emissions in the 7 South American countries.In Argentina and Venezuela,GDP,international tourism,and agricultural productivity significantly affected CO_(2)emissions.In Colombia,GDP and international tourism had a negative impact on CO_(2)emissions.In Brazil,CO_(2)emissions were primarily driven by GDP,while in Chile,Ecuador,and Peru,international tourism had a negative effect on CO_(2)emissions.Overall,this study highlights the importance of country-specific strategies for reducing CO_(2)emissions and emphasizes the varying roles of these driving factors in shaping environmental quality in the 7 South American countries.展开更多
This study aims to analyze and predict the relationship between the average price per box in the cigarette market of City A and government procurement,providing a scientific basis and support for decision-making.By re...This study aims to analyze and predict the relationship between the average price per box in the cigarette market of City A and government procurement,providing a scientific basis and support for decision-making.By reviewing relevant theories and literature,qualitative prediction methods,regression prediction models,and other related theories were explored.Through the analysis of annual cigarette sales data and government procurement data in City A,a comprehensive understanding of the development of the tobacco industry and the economic trends of tobacco companies in the county was obtained.By predicting and analyzing the average price per box of cigarette sales across different years,corresponding prediction results were derived and compared with actual sales data.The prediction results indicate that the correlation coefficient between the average price per box of cigarette sales and government procurement is 0.982,implying that government procurement accounts for 96.4%of the changes in the average price per box of cigarettes.These findings offer an in-depth exploration of the relationship between the average price per box of cigarettes in City A and government procurement,providing a scientific foundation for corporate decision-making and market operations.展开更多
Firstly,based on the data of air quality and the meteorological data in Baoding City from 2017 to 2021,the correlations of meteorological elements and pollutants with O_(3)concentration were explored to determine the ...Firstly,based on the data of air quality and the meteorological data in Baoding City from 2017 to 2021,the correlations of meteorological elements and pollutants with O_(3)concentration were explored to determine the forecast factors of forecast models.Secondly,the O_(3)-8h concentration in Baoding City in 2021 was predicted based on the constructed models of multiple linear regression(MLR),backward propagation neural network(BPNN),and auto regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA),and the predicted values were compared with the observed values to test their prediction effects.The results show that overall,the MLR,BPNN and ARIMA models were able to forecast the changing trend of O_(3)-8h concentration in Baoding in 2021,but the BPNN model gave better forecast results than the ARIMA and MLR models,especially for the prediction of the high values of O_(3)-8h concentration,and the correlation coefficients between the predicted values and the observed values were all higher than 0.9 during June-September.The mean error(ME),mean absolute error(MAE),and root mean square error(RMSE)of the predicted values and the observed values of daily O_(3)-8h concentration based on the BPNN model were 0.45,19.11 and 24.41μg/m 3,respectively,which were significantly better than those of the MLR and ARIMA models.The prediction effects of the MLR,BPNN and ARIMA models were the best at the pollution level,followed by the excellent level,and it was the worst at the good level.In comparison,the prediction effect of BPNN model was better than that of the MLR and ARIMA models as a whole,especially for the pollution and excellent levels.The TS scores of the BPNN model were all above 66%,and the PC values were above 86%.The BPNN model can forecast the changing trend of O_(3)concentration more accurately,and has a good practical application value,but at the same time,the predicted high values of O_(3)concentration should be appropriately increased according to error characteristics of the model.展开更多
Under-fitting problems usually occur in regression models for dam safety monitoring.To overcome the local convergence of the regression, a genetic algorithm (GA) was proposed using a real parameter coding, a ranking s...Under-fitting problems usually occur in regression models for dam safety monitoring.To overcome the local convergence of the regression, a genetic algorithm (GA) was proposed using a real parameter coding, a ranking selection operator, an arithmetical crossover operator and a uniform mutation operator, and calculated the least-square error of the observed and computed values as its fitness function. The elitist strategy was used to improve the speed of the convergence. After that, the modified genetic algorithm was applied to reassess the coefficients of the regression model and a genetic regression model was set up. As an example, a slotted gravity dam in the Northeast of China was introduced. The computational results show that the genetic regression model can solve the under-fitting problems perfectly.展开更多
A fuzzy observations-based radial basis function neural network （FORBFNN） is presented for modeling nonlinear systems in which the observations of response are imprecise but can be represented as fuzzy membership fu...A fuzzy observations-based radial basis function neural network （FORBFNN） is presented for modeling nonlinear systems in which the observations of response are imprecise but can be represented as fuzzy membership functions. In the FORBFNN model, the weight coefficients of nodes in the hidden layer are identified by using the fuzzy expectation-maximization （ EM ） algorithm, whereas the optimal number of these nodes as well as the centers and widths of radial basis functions are automatically constructed by using a data-driven method. Namely, the method starts with an initial node, and then a new node is added in a hidden layer according to some rules. This procedure is not terminated until the model meets the preset requirements. The method considers both the accuracy and complexity of the model. Numerical simulation results show that the modeling method is effective, and the established model has high prediction accuracy.展开更多
In this paper, based on the theory of parameter estimation, we give a selection method and, in a sense of a good character of the parameter estimation, we think that it is very reasonable. Moreover, we offer a calcula...In this paper, based on the theory of parameter estimation, we give a selection method and, in a sense of a good character of the parameter estimation, we think that it is very reasonable. Moreover, we offer a calculation method of selection statistic and an applied example.展开更多
Rainfall is an important factor in estimating the event mean concentration （EMC） which is used to quantify the washed-off pollutant concentrations from non-point sources （NPSs）. Pollutant loads could also be calcu...Rainfall is an important factor in estimating the event mean concentration （EMC） which is used to quantify the washed-off pollutant concentrations from non-point sources （NPSs）. Pollutant loads could also be calculated using rainfall, catchment area and runoff coefficient. In this study, runoff quantity and quality data gathered from a 28-month monitoring conducted on the road and parking lot sites in Korea were evaluated using multiple linear regression （MLR） to develop equations for estimating pollutant loads and EMCs as a function of rainfall variables. The results revealed that total event rainfall and average rainfall intensity are possible predictors of pollutant loads. Overall, the models are indicators of the high uncertainties of NPSs; perhaps estimation of EMCs and loads could be accurately obtained by means of water quality sampling or a long term monitoring is needed to gather more data that can be used for the development of estimation models.展开更多
The radial basis function （RBF） emerged as a variant of artificial neural network. Generalized regression neural network （GRNN） is one type of RBF, and its principal advantages are that it can quickly learn and ra...The radial basis function （RBF） emerged as a variant of artificial neural network. Generalized regression neural network （GRNN） is one type of RBF, and its principal advantages are that it can quickly learn and rapidly converge to the optimal regression surface with large number of data sets. Hyperspectral reflectance （350 to 2500 nm） data were recorded at two different rice sites in two experiment fields with two cultivars, three nitrogen treatments and one plant density （45 plants m^-2）. Stepwise multivariable regression model （SMR） and RBF were used to compare their predictability for the leaf area index （LAI） and green leaf chlorophyll density （GLCD） of rice based on reflectance （R） and its three different transformations, the first derivative reflectance （D1）, the second derivative reflectance （D2） and the log-transformed reflectance （LOG）. GRNN based on D1 was the best model for the prediction of rice LAI and CLCD. The relationships between different transformations of reflectance and rice parameters could be further improved when RBF was employed. Owing to its strong capacity for nonlinear mapping and good robustness, GRNN could maximize the sensitivity to chlorophyll content using D1. It is concluded that RBF may provide a useful exploratory and predictive tool for the estimation of rice biophysical parameters.展开更多
Backgrounds:Evaluating the growth performance of pigs in real-time is laborious and expensive,thus mathematical models based on easily accessible variables are developed.Multiple regression(MR)is the most widely used ...Backgrounds:Evaluating the growth performance of pigs in real-time is laborious and expensive,thus mathematical models based on easily accessible variables are developed.Multiple regression(MR)is the most widely used tool to build prediction models in swine nutrition,while the artificial neural networks(ANN)model is reported to be more accurate than MR model in prediction performance.Therefore,the potential of ANN models in predicting the growth performance of pigs was evaluated and compared with MR models in this study.Results:Body weight(BW),net energy(NE)intake,standardized ileal digestible lysine(SID Lys)intake,and their quadratic terms were selected as input variables to predict ADG and F/G among 10 candidate variables.In the training phase,MR models showed high accuracy in both ADG and F/G prediction(R^(2)_(ADG)=0.929,R^(2)_(F/G)=0.886)while ANN models with 4,6 neurons and radial basis activation function yielded the best performance in ADG and F/G prediction(R^(2)_(ADG)=0.964,R^(2)_(F/G)=0.932).In the testing phase,these ANN models showed better accuracy in ADG prediction(CCC:0.976 vs.0.861,R^(2):0.951 vs.0.584),and F/G prediction(CCC:0.952 vs.0.900,R^(2):0.905 vs.0.821)compared with the MR models.Meanwhile,the“over-fitting”occurred in MR models but not in ANN models.On validation data from the animal trial,ANN models exhibited superiority over MR models in both ADG and F/G prediction(P<0.01).Moreover,the growth stages have a significant effect on the prediction accuracy of the models.Conclusion:Body weight,NE intake and SID Lys intake can be used as input variables to predict the growth performance of growing-finishing pigs,with trained ANN models are more flexible and accurate than MR models.Therefore,it is promising to use ANN models in related swine nutrition studies in the future.展开更多
In this paper we apply the nonlinear time series analysis method to small-time scale traffic measurement data. The prediction-based method is used to determine the embedding dimension of the traffic data. Based on the...In this paper we apply the nonlinear time series analysis method to small-time scale traffic measurement data. The prediction-based method is used to determine the embedding dimension of the traffic data. Based on the reconstructed phase space, the local support vector machine prediction method is used to predict the traffic measurement data, and the BIC-based neighbouring point selection method is used to choose the number of the nearest neighbouring points for the local support vector machine regression model. The experimental results show that the local support vector machine prediction method whose neighbouring points are optimized can effectively predict the small-time scale traffic measurement data and can reproduce the statistical features of real traffic measurements.展开更多
In this paper,a class of functional-coefficient regression models is proposed and an estimation procedure based on the locally weighted least equares is suggested.This class of models,with the proposed estimation meth...In this paper,a class of functional-coefficient regression models is proposed and an estimation procedure based on the locally weighted least equares is suggested.This class of models,with the proposed estimation method,is a powerful means for exploratory data analysis.展开更多
Wavelets are applied to detect the jumps in a heteroscedastic regression model. It is shown that the wavelet coefficients of the data have significantly large absolute values across fine scale levels near the jump poi...Wavelets are applied to detect the jumps in a heteroscedastic regression model. It is shown that the wavelet coefficients of the data have significantly large absolute values across fine scale levels near the jump points. Then a procedure is developed to estimate the jumps and jump heights. All estimators are proved to be consistent.展开更多
In this article,a procedure for estimating the coefficient functions on the functional-coefficient regression models with different smoothing variables in different coefficient functions is defined.First step,by the l...In this article,a procedure for estimating the coefficient functions on the functional-coefficient regression models with different smoothing variables in different coefficient functions is defined.First step,by the local linear technique and the averaged method,the initial estimates of the coefficient functions are given.Second step,based on the initial estimates,the efficient estimates of the coefficient functions are proposed by a one-step back-fitting procedure.The efficient estimators share the same asymptotic normalities as the local linear estimators for the functional-coefficient models with a single smoothing variable in different functions.Two simulated examples show that the procedure is effective.展开更多
A geometric framework is proposed for semiparametric nonlinear regression models based on the concept of least favorable curve, introduced by Severini and Wong (1992). The authors use this framework to drive three kin...A geometric framework is proposed for semiparametric nonlinear regression models based on the concept of least favorable curve, introduced by Severini and Wong (1992). The authors use this framework to drive three kinds of improved approximate confidence regions for the parameter and parameter subset in terms of curvatures. The results obtained by Hamilton et al. (1982), Hamilton (1986) and Wei (1994) are extended to semiparametric nonlinear regression models.展开更多
Spatial models are effective in obtaining local details on grassland biomass,and their accuracy has important practical significance for the stable management of grasses and livestock.To this end,the present study uti...Spatial models are effective in obtaining local details on grassland biomass,and their accuracy has important practical significance for the stable management of grasses and livestock.To this end,the present study utilized measured quadrat data of grass yield across different regions in the main growing season of temperate grasslands in Ningxia of China(August 2020),combined with hydrometeorology,elevation,net primary productivity(NPP),and other auxiliary data over the same period.Accordingly,non-stationary characteristics of the spatial scale,and the effects of influencing factors on grass yield were analyzed using a mixed geographically weighted regression(MGWR)model.The results showed that the model was suitable for correlation analysis.The spatial scale of ratio resident-area index(PRI)was the largest,followed by the digital elevation model,NPP,distance from gully,distance from river,average July rainfall,and daily temperature range;whereas the spatial scales of night light,distance from roads,and relative humidity(RH)were the most limited.All influencing factors maintained positive and negative effects on grass yield,save for the strictly negative effect of RH.The regression results revealed a multiscale differential spatial response regularity of different influencing factors on grass yield.Regression parameters revealed that the results of Ordinary least squares(OLS)(Adjusted R^(2)=0.642)and geographically weighted regression(GWR)(Adjusted R^(2)=0.797)models were worse than those of MGWR(Adjusted R^(2)=0.889)models.Based on the results of the RMSE and radius index,the simulation effect also was MGWR>GWR>OLS models.Ultimately,the MGWR model held the strongest prediction performance(R^(2)=0.8306).Spatially,the grass yield was high in the south and west,and low in the north and east of the study area.The results of this study provide a new technical support for rapid and accurate estimation of grassland yield to dynamically adjust grazing decision in the semi-arid loess hilly region.展开更多
Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ri...Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p 〈0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to cheek the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height （X1 ） and potential energy （X2 ） significantly impact （p 〈 0. 0001 ） the amplitude-based refleeted rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all 〉 0.05 （0.2839, 0.3438, respectively）. That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height （ X1 ） and potential energy （X2） can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model. Investigation of 6 predictive powers （ R2, Max-rescaled R^2, Sorners＇ D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively） indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.展开更多
基金financed as part of the project“Development of a methodology for instrumental base formation for analysis and modeling of the spatial socio-economic development of systems based on internal reserves in the context of digitalization”(FSEG-2023-0008)funded by the Russian Science Foundation(Agreement 23-41-10001,https://doi.org/https://rscf.ru/project/23-41-10001/).
文摘The results of mass appraisal in many countries are used as a basis for calculating the amount of real estate tax,therefore,regardless of the methods used to calculate it,the resulting value should be as close as possible to the market value of the real estate to maintain a balance of interests between the state and the rights holders.In practice,this condition is not always met,since,firstly,the quality of market data is often very low,and secondly,some markets are characterized by low activity,which is expressed in a deficit of information on asking prices.The aim of the work is ecological valuation of land use:how regression-based mass appraisal can inform ecological conservation,land degradation,and sustainable land management.Four multiple regression models were constructed for AI generated map of land plots for recreational use in St.Petersburg(Russia)with different volumes of market information(32,30,20 and 15 units of market information with four price-forming factors).During the analysis of the quality of the models,it was revealed that the best result is shown by the model built on the maximum sample size,then the model based on 15 analogs,which proves that a larger number of analog objects does not always allow us to achieve better results,since the more analog objects there are.
基金supported in part by Sichuan Science and Technology Program under Grant No.2025ZNSFSC151in part by the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grant No.XDA27030201+1 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.U21B6001in part by the Natural Science Foundation of Tianjin under Grant No.24JCQNJC01930.
文摘The work proposes a distributed Kalman filtering(KF)algorithm to track a time-varying unknown signal process for a stochastic regression model over network systems in a cooperative way.We provide the stability analysis of the proposed distributed KF algorithm without independent and stationary signal assumptions,which implies that the theoretical results are able to be applied to stochastic feedback systems.Note that the main difficulty of stability analysis lies in analyzing the properties of the product of non-independent and non-stationary random matrices involved in the error equation.We employ analysis techniques such as stochastic Lyapunov function,stability theory of stochastic systems,and algebraic graph theory to deal with the above issue.The stochastic spatio-temporal cooperative information condition shows the cooperative property of multiple sensors that even though any local sensor cannot track the time-varying unknown signal,the distributed KF algorithm can be utilized to finish the filtering task in a cooperative way.At last,we illustrate the property of the proposed distributed KF algorithm by a simulation example.
基金This work was performed under the auspices of the National Nuclear Security Administration of the US Department of Energy at Los Alamos National Laboratory under Contract No.89233218CNA000001The Authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the US Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration Advanced Simulation and Computing Program.LA-UR-22-33159.
文摘To accurately model flows with shock waves using staggered-grid Lagrangian hydrodynamics, the artificial viscosity has to be introduced to convert kinetic energy into internal energy, thereby increasing the entropy across shocks. Determining the appropriate strength of the artificial viscosity is an art and strongly depends on the particular problem and experience of the researcher. The objective of this study is to pose the problem of finding the appropriate strength of the artificial viscosity as an optimization problem and solve this problem using machine learning (ML) tools, specifically using surrogate models based on Gaussian Process regression (GPR) and Bayesian analysis. We describe the optimization method and discuss various practical details of its implementation. The shock-containing problems for which we apply this method all have been implemented in the LANL code FLAG (Burton in Connectivity structures and differencing techniques for staggered-grid free-Lagrange hydrodynamics, Tech. Rep. UCRL-JC-110555, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, 1992, 1992, in Consistent finite-volume discretization of hydrodynamic conservation laws for unstructured grids, Tech. Rep. CRL-JC-118788, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, 1992, 1994, Multidimensional discretization of conservation laws for unstructured polyhedral grids, Tech. Rep. UCRL-JC-118306, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, 1992, 1994, in FLAG, a multi-dimensional, multiple mesh, adaptive free-Lagrange, hydrodynamics code. In: NECDC, 1992). First, we apply ML to find optimal values to isolated shock problems of different strengths. Second, we apply ML to optimize the viscosity for a one-dimensional (1D) propagating detonation problem based on Zel’dovich-von Neumann-Doring (ZND) (Fickett and Davis in Detonation: theory and experiment. Dover books on physics. Dover Publications, Mineola, 2000) detonation theory using a reactive burn model. We compare results for default (currently used values in FLAG) and optimized values of the artificial viscosity for these problems demonstrating the potential for significant improvement in the accuracy of computations.
文摘As maritime activities increase globally,there is a greater dependency on technology in monitoring,control,and surveillance of vessel activity.One of the most prominent systems for monitoring vessel activity is the Automatic Identification System(AIS).An increase in both vessels fitted with AIS transponders and satellite and terrestrial AIS receivers has resulted in a significant increase in AIS messages received globally.This resultant rich spatial and temporal data source related to vessel activity provides analysts with the ability to perform enhanced vessel movement analytics,of which a pertinent example is the improvement of vessel location predictions.In this paper,we propose a novel strategy for predicting future locations of vessels making use of historic AIS data.The proposed method uses a Linear Regression Model(LRM)and utilizes historic AIS movement data in the form of a-priori generated spatial maps of the course over ground(LRMAC).The LRMAC is an accurate low complexity first-order method that is easy to implement operationally and shows promising results in areas where there is a consistency in the directionality of historic vessel movement.In areas where the historic directionality of vessel movement is diverse,such as areas close to harbors and ports,the LRMAC defaults to the LRM.The proposed LRMAC method is compared to the Single-Point Neighbor Search(SPNS),which is also a first-order method and has a similar level of computational complexity,and for the use case of predicting tanker and cargo vessel trajectories up to 8 hours into the future,the LRMAC showed improved results both in terms of prediction accuracy and execution time.
文摘Carbon emissions have become a critical concern in the global effort to combat climate change,with each country or region contributing differently based on its economic structures,energy sources,and industrial activities.The factors influencing carbon emissions vary across countries and sectors.This study examined the factors influencing CO_(2)emissions in the 7 South American countries including Argentina,Brazil,Chile,Colombia,Ecuador,Peru,and Venezuela.We used the Seemingly Unrelated Regression(SUR)model to analyse the relationship of CO_(2)emissions with gross domestic product(GDP),renewable energy use,urbanization,industrialization,international tourism,agricultural productivity,and forest area based on data from 2000 to 2022.According to the SUR model,we found that GDP and industrialization had a moderate positive effect on CO_(2)emissions,whereas renewable energy use had a moderate negative effect on CO_(2)emissions.International tourism generally had a positive impact on CO_(2)emissions,while forest area tended to decrease CO_(2)emissions.Different variables had different effects on CO_(2)emissions in the 7 South American countries.In Argentina and Venezuela,GDP,international tourism,and agricultural productivity significantly affected CO_(2)emissions.In Colombia,GDP and international tourism had a negative impact on CO_(2)emissions.In Brazil,CO_(2)emissions were primarily driven by GDP,while in Chile,Ecuador,and Peru,international tourism had a negative effect on CO_(2)emissions.Overall,this study highlights the importance of country-specific strategies for reducing CO_(2)emissions and emphasizes the varying roles of these driving factors in shaping environmental quality in the 7 South American countries.
基金National Social Science Fund Project“Research on the Operational Risks and Prevention of Government Procurement of Community Services Project System”(Project No.21CSH018)Research and Application of SDM Cigarette Supply Strategy Based on Consumer Data Analysis(Project No.2023ASXM07)。
文摘This study aims to analyze and predict the relationship between the average price per box in the cigarette market of City A and government procurement,providing a scientific basis and support for decision-making.By reviewing relevant theories and literature,qualitative prediction methods,regression prediction models,and other related theories were explored.Through the analysis of annual cigarette sales data and government procurement data in City A,a comprehensive understanding of the development of the tobacco industry and the economic trends of tobacco companies in the county was obtained.By predicting and analyzing the average price per box of cigarette sales across different years,corresponding prediction results were derived and compared with actual sales data.The prediction results indicate that the correlation coefficient between the average price per box of cigarette sales and government procurement is 0.982,implying that government procurement accounts for 96.4%of the changes in the average price per box of cigarettes.These findings offer an in-depth exploration of the relationship between the average price per box of cigarettes in City A and government procurement,providing a scientific foundation for corporate decision-making and market operations.
基金the Project of the Key Open Laboratory of Atmospheric Detection,China Meteorological Administration(2023KLAS02M)the Second Batch of Science and Technology Project of China Meteorological Administration("Jiebangguashuai"):the Research and Development of Short-term and Near-term Warning Products for Severe Convective Weather in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region(CMAJBGS202307).
文摘Firstly,based on the data of air quality and the meteorological data in Baoding City from 2017 to 2021,the correlations of meteorological elements and pollutants with O_(3)concentration were explored to determine the forecast factors of forecast models.Secondly,the O_(3)-8h concentration in Baoding City in 2021 was predicted based on the constructed models of multiple linear regression(MLR),backward propagation neural network(BPNN),and auto regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA),and the predicted values were compared with the observed values to test their prediction effects.The results show that overall,the MLR,BPNN and ARIMA models were able to forecast the changing trend of O_(3)-8h concentration in Baoding in 2021,but the BPNN model gave better forecast results than the ARIMA and MLR models,especially for the prediction of the high values of O_(3)-8h concentration,and the correlation coefficients between the predicted values and the observed values were all higher than 0.9 during June-September.The mean error(ME),mean absolute error(MAE),and root mean square error(RMSE)of the predicted values and the observed values of daily O_(3)-8h concentration based on the BPNN model were 0.45,19.11 and 24.41μg/m 3,respectively,which were significantly better than those of the MLR and ARIMA models.The prediction effects of the MLR,BPNN and ARIMA models were the best at the pollution level,followed by the excellent level,and it was the worst at the good level.In comparison,the prediction effect of BPNN model was better than that of the MLR and ARIMA models as a whole,especially for the pollution and excellent levels.The TS scores of the BPNN model were all above 66%,and the PC values were above 86%.The BPNN model can forecast the changing trend of O_(3)concentration more accurately,and has a good practical application value,but at the same time,the predicted high values of O_(3)concentration should be appropriately increased according to error characteristics of the model.
文摘Under-fitting problems usually occur in regression models for dam safety monitoring.To overcome the local convergence of the regression, a genetic algorithm (GA) was proposed using a real parameter coding, a ranking selection operator, an arithmetical crossover operator and a uniform mutation operator, and calculated the least-square error of the observed and computed values as its fitness function. The elitist strategy was used to improve the speed of the convergence. After that, the modified genetic algorithm was applied to reassess the coefficients of the regression model and a genetic regression model was set up. As an example, a slotted gravity dam in the Northeast of China was introduced. The computational results show that the genetic regression model can solve the under-fitting problems perfectly.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51106025,51106027,51036002)Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education(No.20130092110061)the Youth Foundation of Nanjing Institute of Technology(No.QKJA201303)
文摘A fuzzy observations-based radial basis function neural network （FORBFNN） is presented for modeling nonlinear systems in which the observations of response are imprecise but can be represented as fuzzy membership functions. In the FORBFNN model, the weight coefficients of nodes in the hidden layer are identified by using the fuzzy expectation-maximization （ EM ） algorithm, whereas the optimal number of these nodes as well as the centers and widths of radial basis functions are automatically constructed by using a data-driven method. Namely, the method starts with an initial node, and then a new node is added in a hidden layer according to some rules. This procedure is not terminated until the model meets the preset requirements. The method considers both the accuracy and complexity of the model. Numerical simulation results show that the modeling method is effective, and the established model has high prediction accuracy.
基金Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Education Committee
文摘In this paper, based on the theory of parameter estimation, we give a selection method and, in a sense of a good character of the parameter estimation, we think that it is very reasonable. Moreover, we offer a calculation method of selection statistic and an applied example.
基金provided by the Korean Ministry of Environment and Eco Star Project
文摘Rainfall is an important factor in estimating the event mean concentration （EMC） which is used to quantify the washed-off pollutant concentrations from non-point sources （NPSs）. Pollutant loads could also be calculated using rainfall, catchment area and runoff coefficient. In this study, runoff quantity and quality data gathered from a 28-month monitoring conducted on the road and parking lot sites in Korea were evaluated using multiple linear regression （MLR） to develop equations for estimating pollutant loads and EMCs as a function of rainfall variables. The results revealed that total event rainfall and average rainfall intensity are possible predictors of pollutant loads. Overall, the models are indicators of the high uncertainties of NPSs; perhaps estimation of EMCs and loads could be accurately obtained by means of water quality sampling or a long term monitoring is needed to gather more data that can be used for the development of estimation models.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40571115)the National High Tech-nology Research and Development Program (863 Program) of China (Nos.2006AA120101 and 2007AA10Z205)
文摘The radial basis function （RBF） emerged as a variant of artificial neural network. Generalized regression neural network （GRNN） is one type of RBF, and its principal advantages are that it can quickly learn and rapidly converge to the optimal regression surface with large number of data sets. Hyperspectral reflectance （350 to 2500 nm） data were recorded at two different rice sites in two experiment fields with two cultivars, three nitrogen treatments and one plant density （45 plants m^-2）. Stepwise multivariable regression model （SMR） and RBF were used to compare their predictability for the leaf area index （LAI） and green leaf chlorophyll density （GLCD） of rice based on reflectance （R） and its three different transformations, the first derivative reflectance （D1）, the second derivative reflectance （D2） and the log-transformed reflectance （LOG）. GRNN based on D1 was the best model for the prediction of rice LAI and CLCD. The relationships between different transformations of reflectance and rice parameters could be further improved when RBF was employed. Owing to its strong capacity for nonlinear mapping and good robustness, GRNN could maximize the sensitivity to chlorophyll content using D1. It is concluded that RBF may provide a useful exploratory and predictive tool for the estimation of rice biophysical parameters.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(32072764, 31702121)the 2115 Talent Development Program of China Agricultural UniversityNational Key Research and Development Program of China (2019YFD1002605)
文摘Backgrounds:Evaluating the growth performance of pigs in real-time is laborious and expensive,thus mathematical models based on easily accessible variables are developed.Multiple regression(MR)is the most widely used tool to build prediction models in swine nutrition,while the artificial neural networks(ANN)model is reported to be more accurate than MR model in prediction performance.Therefore,the potential of ANN models in predicting the growth performance of pigs was evaluated and compared with MR models in this study.Results:Body weight(BW),net energy(NE)intake,standardized ileal digestible lysine(SID Lys)intake,and their quadratic terms were selected as input variables to predict ADG and F/G among 10 candidate variables.In the training phase,MR models showed high accuracy in both ADG and F/G prediction(R^(2)_(ADG)=0.929,R^(2)_(F/G)=0.886)while ANN models with 4,6 neurons and radial basis activation function yielded the best performance in ADG and F/G prediction(R^(2)_(ADG)=0.964,R^(2)_(F/G)=0.932).In the testing phase,these ANN models showed better accuracy in ADG prediction(CCC:0.976 vs.0.861,R^(2):0.951 vs.0.584),and F/G prediction(CCC:0.952 vs.0.900,R^(2):0.905 vs.0.821)compared with the MR models.Meanwhile,the“over-fitting”occurred in MR models but not in ANN models.On validation data from the animal trial,ANN models exhibited superiority over MR models in both ADG and F/G prediction(P<0.01).Moreover,the growth stages have a significant effect on the prediction accuracy of the models.Conclusion:Body weight,NE intake and SID Lys intake can be used as input variables to predict the growth performance of growing-finishing pigs,with trained ANN models are more flexible and accurate than MR models.Therefore,it is promising to use ANN models in related swine nutrition studies in the future.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No 60573065)the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province,China (Grant No Y2007G33)the Key Subject Research Foundation of Shandong Province,China(Grant No XTD0708)
文摘In this paper we apply the nonlinear time series analysis method to small-time scale traffic measurement data. The prediction-based method is used to determine the embedding dimension of the traffic data. Based on the reconstructed phase space, the local support vector machine prediction method is used to predict the traffic measurement data, and the BIC-based neighbouring point selection method is used to choose the number of the nearest neighbouring points for the local support vector machine regression model. The experimental results show that the local support vector machine prediction method whose neighbouring points are optimized can effectively predict the small-time scale traffic measurement data and can reproduce the statistical features of real traffic measurements.
文摘In this paper,a class of functional-coefficient regression models is proposed and an estimation procedure based on the locally weighted least equares is suggested.This class of models,with the proposed estimation method,is a powerful means for exploratory data analysis.
文摘Wavelets are applied to detect the jumps in a heteroscedastic regression model. It is shown that the wavelet coefficients of the data have significantly large absolute values across fine scale levels near the jump points. Then a procedure is developed to estimate the jumps and jump heights. All estimators are proved to be consistent.
文摘In this article,a procedure for estimating the coefficient functions on the functional-coefficient regression models with different smoothing variables in different coefficient functions is defined.First step,by the local linear technique and the averaged method,the initial estimates of the coefficient functions are given.Second step,based on the initial estimates,the efficient estimates of the coefficient functions are proposed by a one-step back-fitting procedure.The efficient estimators share the same asymptotic normalities as the local linear estimators for the functional-coefficient models with a single smoothing variable in different functions.Two simulated examples show that the procedure is effective.
文摘A geometric framework is proposed for semiparametric nonlinear regression models based on the concept of least favorable curve, introduced by Severini and Wong (1992). The authors use this framework to drive three kinds of improved approximate confidence regions for the parameter and parameter subset in terms of curvatures. The results obtained by Hamilton et al. (1982), Hamilton (1986) and Wei (1994) are extended to semiparametric nonlinear regression models.
文摘Spatial models are effective in obtaining local details on grassland biomass,and their accuracy has important practical significance for the stable management of grasses and livestock.To this end,the present study utilized measured quadrat data of grass yield across different regions in the main growing season of temperate grasslands in Ningxia of China(August 2020),combined with hydrometeorology,elevation,net primary productivity(NPP),and other auxiliary data over the same period.Accordingly,non-stationary characteristics of the spatial scale,and the effects of influencing factors on grass yield were analyzed using a mixed geographically weighted regression(MGWR)model.The results showed that the model was suitable for correlation analysis.The spatial scale of ratio resident-area index(PRI)was the largest,followed by the digital elevation model,NPP,distance from gully,distance from river,average July rainfall,and daily temperature range;whereas the spatial scales of night light,distance from roads,and relative humidity(RH)were the most limited.All influencing factors maintained positive and negative effects on grass yield,save for the strictly negative effect of RH.The regression results revealed a multiscale differential spatial response regularity of different influencing factors on grass yield.Regression parameters revealed that the results of Ordinary least squares(OLS)(Adjusted R^(2)=0.642)and geographically weighted regression(GWR)(Adjusted R^(2)=0.797)models were worse than those of MGWR(Adjusted R^(2)=0.889)models.Based on the results of the RMSE and radius index,the simulation effect also was MGWR>GWR>OLS models.Ultimately,the MGWR model held the strongest prediction performance(R^(2)=0.8306).Spatially,the grass yield was high in the south and west,and low in the north and east of the study area.The results of this study provide a new technical support for rapid and accurate estimation of grassland yield to dynamically adjust grazing decision in the semi-arid loess hilly region.
基金This paper was financially supported by NSC96-2628-E-366-004-MY2 and NSC96-2628-E-132-001-MY2
文摘Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p 〈0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to cheek the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height （X1 ） and potential energy （X2 ） significantly impact （p 〈 0. 0001 ） the amplitude-based refleeted rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all 〉 0.05 （0.2839, 0.3438, respectively）. That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height （ X1 ） and potential energy （X2） can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model. Investigation of 6 predictive powers （ R2, Max-rescaled R^2, Sorners＇ D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively） indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.
