Deep neural networks(DNNs)are widely used in real-world applications,thanks to their exceptional performance in image recognition.However,their vulnerability to attacks,such as Trojan and data poison,can compromise th...Deep neural networks(DNNs)are widely used in real-world applications,thanks to their exceptional performance in image recognition.However,their vulnerability to attacks,such as Trojan and data poison,can compromise the integrity and stability of DNN applications.Therefore,it is crucial to verify the integrity of DNN models to ensure their security.Previous research on model watermarking for integrity detection has encountered the issue of overexposure of model parameters during embedding and extraction of the watermark.To address this problem,we propose a novel score-based black-box DNN fragile watermarking framework called fragile trigger generation(FTG).The FTG framework only requires the prediction probability distribution of the final output of the classifier during the watermarking process.It generates different fragile samples as the trigger,based on the classification prediction probability of the target classifier and a specified prediction probability mask to watermark it.Different prediction probability masks can promote the generation of fragile samples in corresponding distribution types.The whole watermarking process does not affect the performance of the target classifier.When verifying the watermarking information,the FTG only needs to compare the prediction results of the model on the samples with the previous label.As a result,the required model parameter information is reduced,and the FTG only needs a few samples to detect slight modifications in the model.Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method and show its superiority over related work.The FTG framework provides a robust solution for verifying the integrity of DNN models,and its effectiveness in detecting slight modifications makes it a valuable tool for ensuring the security and stability of DNN applications.展开更多
With the raising complexity of modern civil aircraft,both academy and industry have shown strong interests on MBSE(Model-Based System Engineering).However,following the application of MBSE,the duration of the design p...With the raising complexity of modern civil aircraft,both academy and industry have shown strong interests on MBSE(Model-Based System Engineering).However,following the application of MBSE,the duration of the design phase exceeded expectations.This paper conducted a survey to the relevant participants involved in the design,revealed that a lack of proper process management is a critical issue.The current MBSE methodology does not provide clear guidelines for monitoring,controlling,and managing processes,which are crucial for both efficiency and effectiveness.To address this,the present paper introduced an improved Process Model(PM)within the MBSE framework for civil aircraft design.This improved model incorporates three new Management Blocks(MB):Progress Management Block(PMB),Review Management Block(RMB),and Configuration Management Block(CMB),developed based on the Capability Maturity Model Integration(CMMI).These additions aim to streamline the design process and better align it with engineering practices.The upgraded MBSE method with the improved PM offers a more structured approach to manage complex aircraft design projects,and a case study is conducted to validate its potential to reduce timelines and enhance overall project outcomes.展开更多
Background As information technology has advanced and been popularized,open pit mining has rapidly developed toward integration and digitization.The three-dimensional reconstruction technology has been successfully ap...Background As information technology has advanced and been popularized,open pit mining has rapidly developed toward integration and digitization.The three-dimensional reconstruction technology has been successfully applied to geological reconstruction and modeling of surface scenes in open pit mines.However,an integrated modeling method for surface and underground mine sites has not been reported.Methods In this study,we propose an integrated modeling method for open pit mines that fuses a real scene on the surface with an underground geological model.Based on oblique photography,a real-scene model was established on the surface.Based on the surface-stitching method proposed,the upper and lower surfaces and sides of the model were constructed in stages to construct a complete underground three-dimensional geological model,and the aboveground and underground models were registered together to build an integrated open pit mine model.Results The oblique photography method used reconstructed a surface model of an open pit mine using a real scene.The surface-stitching algorithm proposed was compared with the ball-pivoting and Poisson algorithms,and the integrity of the reconstructed model was markedly superior to that of the other two reconstruction methods.In addition,the surface-stitching algorithm was applied to the reconstruction of different formation models and showed good stability and reconstruction efficiency.Finally,the aboveground and underground models were accurately fitted after registration to form an integrated model.Conclusions The proposed method can efficiently establish an integrated open pit model.Based on the integrated model,an open pit auxiliary planning system was designed and realized.It supports the functions of mining planning and output calculation,assists users in mining planning and operation management,and improves production efficiency and management levels.展开更多
We investigate the integrability of the Rabi model,which is traditionally viewed as not Yang–Baxter-integrable despite its solvability.Building on efforts by Bogoliubov and Kulish(2013 J.Math.Sci.19214–30),Amico et ...We investigate the integrability of the Rabi model,which is traditionally viewed as not Yang–Baxter-integrable despite its solvability.Building on efforts by Bogoliubov and Kulish(2013 J.Math.Sci.19214–30),Amico et al(2007 Nucl.Phys.B 787283–300),and Batchelor and Zhou(2015 Phys.Rev.A 91053808),who explored special limiting cases of the model,we develop a spin–boson interaction Hamiltonian under more general boundary conditions,particularly focusing on open boundary conditions with off-diagonal terms.Our approach maintains the direction of the spin in the z direction and also preserves the boson particle number operator a^(†)a,marking a progression beyond previous efforts that have primarily explored reduced forms of the Rabi model from Yang–Baxter algebra.We also address the presence of‘unwanted’quadratic boson terms a^(2) and a^(†2),which share coefficients with the boson particle number operator.Interestingly,these terms vanish when spectral parameter u=±θ_(s),simplifying the model to a limiting case of operator-valued twists,a scenario previously discussed by Batchelor and Zhou(2015 Phys.Rev.A 91053808).展开更多
Quantification of river flood risks is a prerequisite for floodplain management and development.The lower Yellow River(LYR)is characterized by a complex channel–floodplain system,which is prone to flooding but inhabi...Quantification of river flood risks is a prerequisite for floodplain management and development.The lower Yellow River(LYR)is characterized by a complex channel–floodplain system,which is prone to flooding but inhabits a large population on the floodplains.Many floodplain management modes have been presented,but implementation effects of these management modes have not been evaluated correctly.An integrated model was first proposed to evaluate the flood risks to people’s life and property,covering an improved module of two-dimensional(2D)morphodynamic processes and a module of flood risk evaluation for people,buildings and crops on the floodplains.Two simulation cases were then conducted to validate the model accuracy,including the hyperconcentrated flood event and dike-breach induced flood event occurring in the LYR.Finally,the integrated model was applied to key floodplains in the LYR,and the effects of different floodplain management modes were quantified on the risks to people’s life and property under an extreme flood event.Results indicate that:①Satisfactory accuracy was achieved in the simulation of these two flood events.The maximum sediment concentration was just underestimated by 9%,and the simulated inundation depth agreed well with the field record;②severe inundation was predicted to occur in most domains under the current topography(SchemeⅠ),which would be alleviated after implementing different floodplain management modes,with the area in slight inundation degree accounting for a large proportion under the mode of“construction of protection embankment”(SchemeⅡ)and the area in medium inundation degree occupying a high ratio under the mode of“floodplain partition harnessing”(SchemeⅢ);and③compared with SchemeⅠ,the high-risk area for people’s life and property would reduce by 21%–49%under SchemeⅡ,and by 35%–93%under SchemeⅢ.展开更多
This paper extends the one-dimensional(1D)nonlocal strain gradient integral model(NStraGIM)to the two-dimensional(2D)Kirchhoff axisymmetric nanoplates,based on nonlocal strain gradient integral relations formulated al...This paper extends the one-dimensional(1D)nonlocal strain gradient integral model(NStraGIM)to the two-dimensional(2D)Kirchhoff axisymmetric nanoplates,based on nonlocal strain gradient integral relations formulated along both the radial and circumferential directions.By transforming the proposed integral constitutive equations into the equivalent differential forms,complemented by the corresponding constitutive boundary conditions(CBCs),a well-posed mathematical formulation is established for analyzing the axisymmetric bending and buckling of annular/circular functionally graded(FG)sandwich nanoplates.The boundary conditions at the inner edge of a solid nanoplate are derived by L'H?spital's rule.The numerical solution is obtained by the generalized differential quadrature method(GDQM).The accuracy of the proposed model is validated through comparison with the data from the existing literature.A parameter study is conducted to demonstrate the effects of FG sandwich parameters,size parameters,and nonlocal gradient parameters.展开更多
As a prominent mode of variability in the tropical stratosphere on the interannual timescale,the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation(QBO)can significantly influence global atmospheric circulation and weather patterns.This stud...As a prominent mode of variability in the tropical stratosphere on the interannual timescale,the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation(QBO)can significantly influence global atmospheric circulation and weather patterns.This study explores the dynamic processes of QBO disruptions using the integrated climate model of the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)by nudging the tropical zonal winds toward observations.A comparative analysis with ERA5 reanalysis data shows that the nudged runs accurately replicate the general characteristics of the QBO,including the alternating QBO wind regimes and QBO disruption events.The evolution of the QBO winds is diagnosed using empirical orthogonal function and root-mean-square difference analyses,and the rarity of the disruption events is confirmed in the CMA model.Different aspects of the QBO disruptions and the relevant dynamics are present in the model.Firstly,the momentum budget analysis highlights the crucial roles of extratropical Rossby waves and non-orographic gravity waves in the transition from westerly to easterly winds during a disruption.Secondly,Kelvin waves and non-orographic gravity waves explain much of the transition from easterly to westerly winds near 40 hPa.Thirdly,the positive tendency from enhanced vertical advection further accelerates westerly momentum development via secondary meridional circulation.These findings underscore the importance of nudging techniques in understanding QBO dynamics,which provides valuable insights for future climate model improvements toward better forecasting QBO-related climate variability.Notably,due to model limitations,no QBO disruptions were simulated in the free-run experiments.展开更多
To address the issue of disturbance compensation deviation in linear active disturbance rejection control(LADRC),a linear active disturbance rejection control method with reference to the integral chain model(LADRC-R)...To address the issue of disturbance compensation deviation in linear active disturbance rejection control(LADRC),a linear active disturbance rejection control method with reference to the integral chain model(LADRC-R)is proposed.By constructing an ideal control reference model,a dynamic correlation between output deviation and uncompensated disturbances is established,and a dual-loop compensation mechanism is designed.Based on theoretical analysis and frequency-domain characteristics of typical first/second-order systems,this method maintains the parameter-tuning advantages of LADRC while reducing disturbance effects by 50%and introducing no phase lag during low-frequency disturbance suppression.Simulations on second-order systems verify its robustness under parameter perturbations,gain mismatch,and complex disturbances,and an optimized design scheme for the deviation compensator is proposed to suppress discontinuous measurement noise interference.Finally,the engineering effectiveness of this method in precision motion control is validated on an electromagnetic suspension platform,providing a new approach to improving the control performance of LADRC in environments with uncertain disturbances.展开更多
BACKGROUND Peripherally inserted central catheter(PICC)is the preferred intravenous route for chemotherapy in patients with cancer,but its complications,especially deep vein thrombosis(DVT),are becoming increasingly p...BACKGROUND Peripherally inserted central catheter(PICC)is the preferred intravenous route for chemotherapy in patients with cancer,but its complications,especially deep vein thrombosis(DVT),are becoming increasingly prevalent.Medical staff proficient in intubation and maintenance techniques can reduce complications.The multivariate integration teaching model applies the integration of“teaching learning application”to medical training,which helps shift the prevention of complications from“passive management of complications”to“active construction of risk immunity”,thereby ensuring foundational competency for PICC in patients with cancer.AIM To investigate the efficacy of the multivariate integration teaching model in patients with gastric cancer and concurrent DVT after PICC intubation and analyze its effect on patients’quality of life index(QLI)and satisfaction.METHODS A retrospective analysis of medical records of 100 patients with gastric cancer and PICC treated at Zhejiang Provincial People’s Hospital from May 2019 to November 2020 was conducted.According to the different treatment methods and teaching modes received by medical staff,they were divided into a control group and an experimental group,with 50 cases in each group.The routine clinical teaching model and the multivariate integration teaching model were administered to the medical staff for the control group and the experimental group,respectively,to compare the incidence rates of DVT and other adverse reactions,QLI scores,Karnofsky Performance Scale scores,Mental Status Scale in Non-Psychiatric Settings scores,patient satisfaction,medical staff’s test marks,and satisfaction evaluation of the teaching model.RESULTS Compared with the control group,the experimental group exhibited significantly lower incidence rates of DVT and other adverse reactions and MSSNS scores but significantly higher QLI scores,KPS scores,patient satisfaction,medical staff’s test marks,and their satisfaction evaluations of the teaching model(P<0.05).CONCLUSION In a single-center practice,performing the multivariate integration teaching model for medical staff may effectively improve the patients’QLI and satisfaction and may have certain application value in preventing DVT in patients with gastric cancer and PICC.展开更多
Objective:To explore the connotation of the integrated medical-care-rehabilitation nursing model and its application effect in elderly patients with chronic diseases.Methods:A total of 122 elderly patients with chroni...Objective:To explore the connotation of the integrated medical-care-rehabilitation nursing model and its application effect in elderly patients with chronic diseases.Methods:A total of 122 elderly patients with chronic diseases admitted to our hospital from January 2023 to June 2023 were selected and randomly divided into an observation group(62 cases)and a control group(60 cases).Both groups received routine nursing during hospitalization.After discharge,the control group received conventional continuous nursing,while the observation group was given the integrated medical-care-rehabilitation nursing model.The psychological status of the elderly patients in the two groups was compared before nursing and 6 months after nursing.Assessments were made on their clinical symptoms of mental health,self-care ability,health behaviors,and mastery of knowledge about elderly chronic diseases.Results:Six months after nursing,the scores of self-rated clinical symptoms of mental health and negative coping in both groups were lower than those before nursing(P<0.05).Meanwhile,the scores of negative coping,self-care ability,and health behaviors in both groups were higher than those before nursing(P<0.05).Conclusion:The integrated medical-care-rehabilitation nursing model can not only improve the nursing quality for elderly patients with chronic diseases but also foster their positive mentality,help them understand knowledge about diet and health care related to chronic diseases,enhance their self-care ability and health awareness,and assist them in achieving better recovery[1].展开更多
Firstly,based on the data of air quality and the meteorological data in Baoding City from 2017 to 2021,the correlations of meteorological elements and pollutants with O_(3)concentration were explored to determine the ...Firstly,based on the data of air quality and the meteorological data in Baoding City from 2017 to 2021,the correlations of meteorological elements and pollutants with O_(3)concentration were explored to determine the forecast factors of forecast models.Secondly,the O_(3)-8h concentration in Baoding City in 2021 was predicted based on the constructed models of multiple linear regression(MLR),backward propagation neural network(BPNN),and auto regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA),and the predicted values were compared with the observed values to test their prediction effects.The results show that overall,the MLR,BPNN and ARIMA models were able to forecast the changing trend of O_(3)-8h concentration in Baoding in 2021,but the BPNN model gave better forecast results than the ARIMA and MLR models,especially for the prediction of the high values of O_(3)-8h concentration,and the correlation coefficients between the predicted values and the observed values were all higher than 0.9 during June-September.The mean error(ME),mean absolute error(MAE),and root mean square error(RMSE)of the predicted values and the observed values of daily O_(3)-8h concentration based on the BPNN model were 0.45,19.11 and 24.41μg/m 3,respectively,which were significantly better than those of the MLR and ARIMA models.The prediction effects of the MLR,BPNN and ARIMA models were the best at the pollution level,followed by the excellent level,and it was the worst at the good level.In comparison,the prediction effect of BPNN model was better than that of the MLR and ARIMA models as a whole,especially for the pollution and excellent levels.The TS scores of the BPNN model were all above 66%,and the PC values were above 86%.The BPNN model can forecast the changing trend of O_(3)concentration more accurately,and has a good practical application value,but at the same time,the predicted high values of O_(3)concentration should be appropriately increased according to error characteristics of the model.展开更多
Transpiration element is included in the integrated stomatal conductance photosynthesis model by considering gaseous transfer processes, so the present model is capable to simulate the influence of boundary layer con...Transpiration element is included in the integrated stomatal conductance photosynthesis model by considering gaseous transfer processes, so the present model is capable to simulate the influence of boundary layer conductance. Leuning in his revised Ball's model replaced relative humidity with VPD s (the vapor pressure deficit from stomatal pore to leaf surface) and thereby made the relation with transpiration more straightforward, and made it possible for the regulation of transpiration and the influence of boundary layer conductance to be integrated into the combined model. If the differences in water vapor and CO 2 concentration between leaf and ambient air are considered, VPD s , the evaporative demand, is influenced by stomatal and boundary layer conductance. The physiological responses of photosynthesis, transpiration, and stomatal function, and the changes of intercellular CO 2 and water use efficiency to environmental factors, such as wind speed, photon flux density, leaf temperature and ambient CO 2, are analyzed. It is shown that if the boundary layer conductance drops to a level comparable with stomatal conductance, the results of simulation by the model presented here differ significantly from those by the previous model, and, in some cases, are more realistic than the latter.展开更多
A novel simulation program with an integrated circuit emphasis（SPICE） model developed for trench-gate metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistor（M OSFET）devices is proposed. The drift region resistance was ...A novel simulation program with an integrated circuit emphasis（SPICE） model developed for trench-gate metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistor（M OSFET）devices is proposed. The drift region resistance was modeled according to the physical characteristics and the specific structure of the trench-gate MOSFET device. For the accurate simulation of dynamic characteristics, three important capacitances, gate-to-drain capacitance Cgd, gate-to-source capacitance Cgsand drain-to-source capacitance Cds, were modeled, respectively, in the proposed model. Furthermore,the self-heating effect, temperature effect and breakdown characteristic were taken into account; the self-heating model and breakdown model were built in the proposed model; and the temperature parameters of the model were revised. The proposed model is verified by experimental results, and the errors between measured data and simulation results of the novel model are less than 5%. Therefore, the model can give an accurate description for both the static and dynamic characteristics of the trench-gate MOSFET device.展开更多
Bailongjiang watershed in southern Gansu province, China, is one of the most landslide-prone regions in China, characterized by very high frequency of landslide occurrence. In order to predict the landslide occurrence...Bailongjiang watershed in southern Gansu province, China, is one of the most landslide-prone regions in China, characterized by very high frequency of landslide occurrence. In order to predict the landslide occurrence, a comprehensive map of landslide susceptibility is required which may be significantly helpful in reducing loss of property and human life. In this study, an integrated model of information value method and logistic regression is proposed by using their merits at maximum and overcoming their weaknesses, which may enhance precision and accuracy of landslide susceptibility assessment. A detailed and reliable landslide inventory with 1587 landslides was prepared and randomly divided into two groups,(i) training dataset and(ii) testing dataset. Eight distinct landslide conditioning factors including lithology, slope gradient, aspect, elevation, distance to drainages,distance to faults, distance to roads and vegetation coverage were selected for landslide susceptibility mapping. The produced landslide susceptibility maps were validated by the success rate and prediction rate curves. The validation results show that the success rate and the prediction rate of the integrated model are 81.7 % and 84.6 %, respectively, which indicate that the proposed integrated method is reliable to produce an accurate landslide susceptibility map and the results may be used for landslides management and mitigation.展开更多
The grounded theory of qualitative methods was applied to researching the social integration of tourism la-bor migrants in the Jiuhua Mountain of Anhui Province, China. The research was conducted based on the in-depth...The grounded theory of qualitative methods was applied to researching the social integration of tourism la-bor migrants in the Jiuhua Mountain of Anhui Province, China. The research was conducted based on the in-depth in-terviewing of 15 samples, open-consultation and the analysis of secondhand data. The integration models of tourism labor migrants in the Jiuhua Mountain were formed through four processes including theoretic sampling, cod-ing-analysis, cross-tabulation and contextualization. The result shows that modes of production and life styles decide self-integration orientation of tourism labor migrants in the Jiuhua Mountain. Cultural differences are fundamental dis-similarity between tourism labor migrants and natives. There are three kinds of integration models including rapid, free and gradually advancing integration. The differences among different types of migrants’ integration models are re-markable. Taking the working integration as the abscissa and taking the life integration as the coordinate, an "S" model of integration matrix appears in the gradually advancing integration of intermediate and high administers from the working to the life which should be paid special attention to.展开更多
The source apportionment of PM2.5 is essential for pollution prevention.In view of the weaknesses of individual models,we proposed an integrated chemical mass balancesource emission inventory(CMB-SEI)model to acquire ...The source apportionment of PM2.5 is essential for pollution prevention.In view of the weaknesses of individual models,we proposed an integrated chemical mass balancesource emission inventory(CMB-SEI)model to acquire more accurate results.First,the SEI of secondary component precursors(SO2,NOx,NH3,and VOCs)was compiled to acquire the emission ratios of these sources for the precursors.Then,a regular CMB simulation was executed to obtain the contributions of primary particle sources and secondary components(SO4^2-,NO3^-3,NH4^+,and SOC).Afterwards,the contributions of secondary components were apportioned into primary sources according to the source emission ratios.The final source apportionment results combined the contributions of primary sources by CMB and SEI.This integrated approach was carried out via a case study of three coastal cities(Zhoushan,Taizhou,and Wenzhou;abbreviated WZ,TZ,and ZS)in Zhejiang Province,China.The regular CMB simulation results showed that PM2.5 pollution was mainly affected by secondary components and mobile sources.The SEI results indicated that electricity,industrial production and mobile sources were the largest contributors to the emission of PM2.5 gaseous precursors.The simulation results of the CMB-SEI model showed that PM2.5 pollution in the coastal areas of Zhejiang Province presented complex pollution characteristics dominated by mobile sources,electricity production sources and industrial production sources.Compared to the results of the CMB and SEI models alone,the CMB-SEI model completely apportioned PM2.5 to primary sources and simultaneously made the results more accurate and reliable in accordance with local industrial characteristics.展开更多
This article describes the integrated modeling approach for planning the size and the operation of constructed wetlands for maximizing retention of nonpoint source pollutant loads and reservoir water-quality improveme...This article describes the integrated modeling approach for planning the size and the operation of constructed wetlands for maximizing retention of nonpoint source pollutant loads and reservoir water-quality improvement at a catchment scale. The experimental field-scale wetland systems （four sets, 0.88 ha each） have been in operation since 2002, where water depth was maintained at 30-50 cm and hydraulic loading rate was at 6.3-18.8 cm/day. The wetland system was found to be adequate for treating polluted stream water with stable removal efficiency even during the winter. The integrated modeling system （modified-BASINS） was applied to the Seokmoon estuarine reservoir watershed and calibrated with monitoring data from constructed wetland, stream, and reservoir. The calibrated integrated modeling system estimated that constructing wetlands on 0.5% （about 114 ha） of the watershed area at the mouth of reservoir could reduce 11.61% and 13.49% of total external nitrogen and phosphorus loads, respectively. It also might improve the nitrogen and phosphorus concentration of the reservoir by 9.69% and 16.48%, respectively. The study suggested that about 0.1%-1.0% of the watershed area should be allocated for constructed wetland to meet specified water-quality standards for the estuarine reservoir at the polder area where land use planning is relatively less complicated.展开更多
The demand for fluorite resource is increasing rapidly as most fluorite deposits on Earth’s surface have been exhausted.The newly discovered fluorite deposits in Inner Mongolia are hosted by Permian metamorphosed san...The demand for fluorite resource is increasing rapidly as most fluorite deposits on Earth’s surface have been exhausted.The newly discovered fluorite deposits in Inner Mongolia are hosted by Permian metamorphosed sandy slate,intermediate-acid intrusive rocks and Cretaceous volcanic sedimentary rocks.The ore bodies are strictly controlled by faults and buried by cover rocks.The feasibility and effectiveness of multi-techniques for prospecting concealed fluorite ore bodies are evaluated,and 10 anomalies are delineated.On the basis of geological features and effectiveness of different methods,the optimum combinations of ore prospecting techniques are proposed for the exploration of zonal type and burial type concealed fluorite ore bodies.Based on comprehensive researches,an integrated exploration model is proposed:(i)select key prospecting targets based on geological backgrounds,regional geochemical anomalies of F and Ca,and remote sensing images;(ii)identify the spatial distribution of low resistivity anomaly and ore-controlling structure from geophysical survey;(iii)evaluate the mineralization potential in fault zone based on F and Ca anomalies in key sections selected from low resistivity anomaly zones;and(iv)evaluate the mineralization potential and reveal the spatial distribution of fluorite ore bodies and ore-controlling faults based on integrated geophysical and geochemical anomalies.The integrated exploration model is verified to be a powerful tool for prospecting concealed fluorite ore bodies in coverage area.展开更多
This study introduces a new global climate model--the Integrated Climate Model （ICM）--developed for the seasonal prediction of East Asian-western North Pacific （EA-WNP） climate by the Center for Monsoon System Res...This study introduces a new global climate model--the Integrated Climate Model （ICM）--developed for the seasonal prediction of East Asian-western North Pacific （EA-WNP） climate by the Center for Monsoon System Research at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics （CMSR, IAP）, Chinese Academy of Sciences. ICM integrates ECHAM5 and NEMO2.3 as its atmospheric and oceanic components, respectively, using OASIS3 as the coupler. The simulation skill of ICM is evaluated here, including the simulated climatology, interannual variation, and the influence of E1 Nifio as one of the most important factors on EA-WNP climate. ICM successfully reproduces the distribution of sea surface temperature （SST） and precipitation without climate shift, the seasonal cycle of equatorial Pacific SST, and the precipitation and circulation of East Asian summer monsoon. The most prominent biases of ICM are the excessive cold tongue and unrealistic westward phase propagation of equatorial Pacific SST. The main interannual variation of the tropical Pacific SST and EA-WNP climate E1 Nifio and the East Asia-Pacific Pattern--are also well simulated in ICM, with realistic spatial pattern and period. The simulated E1 Nifio has significant impact on EA-WNP climate, as in other models. The assessment shows ICM should be a reliable model for the seasonal prediction of EA-WNP climate.展开更多
Outbreaks of hand-foot-mouth disease（HFMD） have occurred many times and caused serious health burden in China since 2008. Application of modern information technology to prediction and early response can be helpful ...Outbreaks of hand-foot-mouth disease（HFMD） have occurred many times and caused serious health burden in China since 2008. Application of modern information technology to prediction and early response can be helpful for efficient HFMD prevention and control. A seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average（ARIMA） model for time series analysis was designed in this study. Eighty-four-month（from January 2009 to December 2015） retrospective data obtained from the Chinese Information System for Disease Prevention and Control were subjected to ARIMA modeling. The coefficient of determination（R^2）, normalized Bayesian Information Criterion（BIC） and Q-test P value were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of constructed models. Subsequently, the best-fitted ARIMA model was applied to predict the expected incidence of HFMD from January 2016 to December 2016. The best-fitted seasonal ARIMA model was identified as（1,0,1）（0,1,1）12, with the largest coefficient of determination（R^2=0.743） and lowest normalized BIC（BIC=3.645） value. The residuals of the model also showed non-significant autocorrelations（P_（Box-Ljung（Q））=0.299）. The predictions by the optimum ARIMA model adequately captured the pattern in the data and exhibited two peaks of activity over the forecast interval, including a major peak during April to June, and again a light peak for September to November. The ARIMA model proposed in this study can forecast HFMD incidence trend effectively, which could provide useful support for future HFMD prevention and control in the study area. Besides, further observations should be added continually into the modeling data set, and parameters of the models should be adjusted accordingly.展开更多
基金supported by Research Funders National Natural Science Foundation of China(62172001,U22B2047,62076147).
文摘Deep neural networks(DNNs)are widely used in real-world applications,thanks to their exceptional performance in image recognition.However,their vulnerability to attacks,such as Trojan and data poison,can compromise the integrity and stability of DNN applications.Therefore,it is crucial to verify the integrity of DNN models to ensure their security.Previous research on model watermarking for integrity detection has encountered the issue of overexposure of model parameters during embedding and extraction of the watermark.To address this problem,we propose a novel score-based black-box DNN fragile watermarking framework called fragile trigger generation(FTG).The FTG framework only requires the prediction probability distribution of the final output of the classifier during the watermarking process.It generates different fragile samples as the trigger,based on the classification prediction probability of the target classifier and a specified prediction probability mask to watermark it.Different prediction probability masks can promote the generation of fragile samples in corresponding distribution types.The whole watermarking process does not affect the performance of the target classifier.When verifying the watermarking information,the FTG only needs to compare the prediction results of the model on the samples with the previous label.As a result,the required model parameter information is reduced,and the FTG only needs a few samples to detect slight modifications in the model.Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method and show its superiority over related work.The FTG framework provides a robust solution for verifying the integrity of DNN models,and its effectiveness in detecting slight modifications makes it a valuable tool for ensuring the security and stability of DNN applications.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.62073267)。
文摘With the raising complexity of modern civil aircraft,both academy and industry have shown strong interests on MBSE(Model-Based System Engineering).However,following the application of MBSE,the duration of the design phase exceeded expectations.This paper conducted a survey to the relevant participants involved in the design,revealed that a lack of proper process management is a critical issue.The current MBSE methodology does not provide clear guidelines for monitoring,controlling,and managing processes,which are crucial for both efficiency and effectiveness.To address this,the present paper introduced an improved Process Model(PM)within the MBSE framework for civil aircraft design.This improved model incorporates three new Management Blocks(MB):Progress Management Block(PMB),Review Management Block(RMB),and Configuration Management Block(CMB),developed based on the Capability Maturity Model Integration(CMMI).These additions aim to streamline the design process and better align it with engineering practices.The upgraded MBSE method with the improved PM offers a more structured approach to manage complex aircraft design projects,and a case study is conducted to validate its potential to reduce timelines and enhance overall project outcomes.
基金Supported by Liaoning Province Science and Technology Research Project(2021JH1/10400011)National Natural Science Foundation of China(61971118).
文摘Background As information technology has advanced and been popularized,open pit mining has rapidly developed toward integration and digitization.The three-dimensional reconstruction technology has been successfully applied to geological reconstruction and modeling of surface scenes in open pit mines.However,an integrated modeling method for surface and underground mine sites has not been reported.Methods In this study,we propose an integrated modeling method for open pit mines that fuses a real scene on the surface with an underground geological model.Based on oblique photography,a real-scene model was established on the surface.Based on the surface-stitching method proposed,the upper and lower surfaces and sides of the model were constructed in stages to construct a complete underground three-dimensional geological model,and the aboveground and underground models were registered together to build an integrated open pit mine model.Results The oblique photography method used reconstructed a surface model of an open pit mine using a real scene.The surface-stitching algorithm proposed was compared with the ball-pivoting and Poisson algorithms,and the integrity of the reconstructed model was markedly superior to that of the other two reconstruction methods.In addition,the surface-stitching algorithm was applied to the reconstruction of different formation models and showed good stability and reconstruction efficiency.Finally,the aboveground and underground models were accurately fitted after registration to form an integrated model.Conclusions The proposed method can efficiently establish an integrated open pit model.Based on the integrated model,an open pit auxiliary planning system was designed and realized.It supports the functions of mining planning and output calculation,assists users in mining planning and operation management,and improves production efficiency and management levels.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.12275214,12247103,12047502)the Natural Science Basic Research Program of Shaanxi Province Grant Nos.2021JCW-19 and 2019JQ-107Shaanxi Key Laboratory for Theoretical Physics Frontiers in China.
文摘We investigate the integrability of the Rabi model,which is traditionally viewed as not Yang–Baxter-integrable despite its solvability.Building on efforts by Bogoliubov and Kulish(2013 J.Math.Sci.19214–30),Amico et al(2007 Nucl.Phys.B 787283–300),and Batchelor and Zhou(2015 Phys.Rev.A 91053808),who explored special limiting cases of the model,we develop a spin–boson interaction Hamiltonian under more general boundary conditions,particularly focusing on open boundary conditions with off-diagonal terms.Our approach maintains the direction of the spin in the z direction and also preserves the boson particle number operator a^(†)a,marking a progression beyond previous efforts that have primarily explored reduced forms of the Rabi model from Yang–Baxter algebra.We also address the presence of‘unwanted’quadratic boson terms a^(2) and a^(†2),which share coefficients with the boson particle number operator.Interestingly,these terms vanish when spectral parameter u=±θ_(s),simplifying the model to a limiting case of operator-valued twists,a scenario previously discussed by Batchelor and Zhou(2015 Phys.Rev.A 91053808).
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U2243238)the Program of the National Key Research and Development Plan(2023YFC3209304).
文摘Quantification of river flood risks is a prerequisite for floodplain management and development.The lower Yellow River(LYR)is characterized by a complex channel–floodplain system,which is prone to flooding but inhabits a large population on the floodplains.Many floodplain management modes have been presented,but implementation effects of these management modes have not been evaluated correctly.An integrated model was first proposed to evaluate the flood risks to people’s life and property,covering an improved module of two-dimensional(2D)morphodynamic processes and a module of flood risk evaluation for people,buildings and crops on the floodplains.Two simulation cases were then conducted to validate the model accuracy,including the hyperconcentrated flood event and dike-breach induced flood event occurring in the LYR.Finally,the integrated model was applied to key floodplains in the LYR,and the effects of different floodplain management modes were quantified on the risks to people’s life and property under an extreme flood event.Results indicate that:①Satisfactory accuracy was achieved in the simulation of these two flood events.The maximum sediment concentration was just underestimated by 9%,and the simulated inundation depth agreed well with the field record;②severe inundation was predicted to occur in most domains under the current topography(SchemeⅠ),which would be alleviated after implementing different floodplain management modes,with the area in slight inundation degree accounting for a large proportion under the mode of“construction of protection embankment”(SchemeⅡ)and the area in medium inundation degree occupying a high ratio under the mode of“floodplain partition harnessing”(SchemeⅢ);and③compared with SchemeⅠ,the high-risk area for people’s life and property would reduce by 21%–49%under SchemeⅡ,and by 35%–93%under SchemeⅢ.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.12172169)the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions。
文摘This paper extends the one-dimensional(1D)nonlocal strain gradient integral model(NStraGIM)to the two-dimensional(2D)Kirchhoff axisymmetric nanoplates,based on nonlocal strain gradient integral relations formulated along both the radial and circumferential directions.By transforming the proposed integral constitutive equations into the equivalent differential forms,complemented by the corresponding constitutive boundary conditions(CBCs),a well-posed mathematical formulation is established for analyzing the axisymmetric bending and buckling of annular/circular functionally graded(FG)sandwich nanoplates.The boundary conditions at the inner edge of a solid nanoplate are derived by L'H?spital's rule.The numerical solution is obtained by the generalized differential quadrature method(GDQM).The accuracy of the proposed model is validated through comparison with the data from the existing literature.A parameter study is conducted to demonstrate the effects of FG sandwich parameters,size parameters,and nonlocal gradient parameters.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42275056).
文摘As a prominent mode of variability in the tropical stratosphere on the interannual timescale,the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation(QBO)can significantly influence global atmospheric circulation and weather patterns.This study explores the dynamic processes of QBO disruptions using the integrated climate model of the China Meteorological Administration(CMA)by nudging the tropical zonal winds toward observations.A comparative analysis with ERA5 reanalysis data shows that the nudged runs accurately replicate the general characteristics of the QBO,including the alternating QBO wind regimes and QBO disruption events.The evolution of the QBO winds is diagnosed using empirical orthogonal function and root-mean-square difference analyses,and the rarity of the disruption events is confirmed in the CMA model.Different aspects of the QBO disruptions and the relevant dynamics are present in the model.Firstly,the momentum budget analysis highlights the crucial roles of extratropical Rossby waves and non-orographic gravity waves in the transition from westerly to easterly winds during a disruption.Secondly,Kelvin waves and non-orographic gravity waves explain much of the transition from easterly to westerly winds near 40 hPa.Thirdly,the positive tendency from enhanced vertical advection further accelerates westerly momentum development via secondary meridional circulation.These findings underscore the importance of nudging techniques in understanding QBO dynamics,which provides valuable insights for future climate model improvements toward better forecasting QBO-related climate variability.Notably,due to model limitations,no QBO disruptions were simulated in the free-run experiments.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.62063009,52262050)the National Key Research and Development Program during the 14th 5-Year Plan(No.2023YFB4302100)the Major Science and Technology Research and Development Special Project in Jiangxi Province(No.20232ACE01011).
文摘To address the issue of disturbance compensation deviation in linear active disturbance rejection control(LADRC),a linear active disturbance rejection control method with reference to the integral chain model(LADRC-R)is proposed.By constructing an ideal control reference model,a dynamic correlation between output deviation and uncompensated disturbances is established,and a dual-loop compensation mechanism is designed.Based on theoretical analysis and frequency-domain characteristics of typical first/second-order systems,this method maintains the parameter-tuning advantages of LADRC while reducing disturbance effects by 50%and introducing no phase lag during low-frequency disturbance suppression.Simulations on second-order systems verify its robustness under parameter perturbations,gain mismatch,and complex disturbances,and an optimized design scheme for the deviation compensator is proposed to suppress discontinuous measurement noise interference.Finally,the engineering effectiveness of this method in precision motion control is validated on an electromagnetic suspension platform,providing a new approach to improving the control performance of LADRC in environments with uncertain disturbances.
文摘BACKGROUND Peripherally inserted central catheter(PICC)is the preferred intravenous route for chemotherapy in patients with cancer,but its complications,especially deep vein thrombosis(DVT),are becoming increasingly prevalent.Medical staff proficient in intubation and maintenance techniques can reduce complications.The multivariate integration teaching model applies the integration of“teaching learning application”to medical training,which helps shift the prevention of complications from“passive management of complications”to“active construction of risk immunity”,thereby ensuring foundational competency for PICC in patients with cancer.AIM To investigate the efficacy of the multivariate integration teaching model in patients with gastric cancer and concurrent DVT after PICC intubation and analyze its effect on patients’quality of life index(QLI)and satisfaction.METHODS A retrospective analysis of medical records of 100 patients with gastric cancer and PICC treated at Zhejiang Provincial People’s Hospital from May 2019 to November 2020 was conducted.According to the different treatment methods and teaching modes received by medical staff,they were divided into a control group and an experimental group,with 50 cases in each group.The routine clinical teaching model and the multivariate integration teaching model were administered to the medical staff for the control group and the experimental group,respectively,to compare the incidence rates of DVT and other adverse reactions,QLI scores,Karnofsky Performance Scale scores,Mental Status Scale in Non-Psychiatric Settings scores,patient satisfaction,medical staff’s test marks,and satisfaction evaluation of the teaching model.RESULTS Compared with the control group,the experimental group exhibited significantly lower incidence rates of DVT and other adverse reactions and MSSNS scores but significantly higher QLI scores,KPS scores,patient satisfaction,medical staff’s test marks,and their satisfaction evaluations of the teaching model(P<0.05).CONCLUSION In a single-center practice,performing the multivariate integration teaching model for medical staff may effectively improve the patients’QLI and satisfaction and may have certain application value in preventing DVT in patients with gastric cancer and PICC.
文摘Objective:To explore the connotation of the integrated medical-care-rehabilitation nursing model and its application effect in elderly patients with chronic diseases.Methods:A total of 122 elderly patients with chronic diseases admitted to our hospital from January 2023 to June 2023 were selected and randomly divided into an observation group(62 cases)and a control group(60 cases).Both groups received routine nursing during hospitalization.After discharge,the control group received conventional continuous nursing,while the observation group was given the integrated medical-care-rehabilitation nursing model.The psychological status of the elderly patients in the two groups was compared before nursing and 6 months after nursing.Assessments were made on their clinical symptoms of mental health,self-care ability,health behaviors,and mastery of knowledge about elderly chronic diseases.Results:Six months after nursing,the scores of self-rated clinical symptoms of mental health and negative coping in both groups were lower than those before nursing(P<0.05).Meanwhile,the scores of negative coping,self-care ability,and health behaviors in both groups were higher than those before nursing(P<0.05).Conclusion:The integrated medical-care-rehabilitation nursing model can not only improve the nursing quality for elderly patients with chronic diseases but also foster their positive mentality,help them understand knowledge about diet and health care related to chronic diseases,enhance their self-care ability and health awareness,and assist them in achieving better recovery[1].
基金the Project of the Key Open Laboratory of Atmospheric Detection,China Meteorological Administration(2023KLAS02M)the Second Batch of Science and Technology Project of China Meteorological Administration("Jiebangguashuai"):the Research and Development of Short-term and Near-term Warning Products for Severe Convective Weather in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region(CMAJBGS202307).
文摘Firstly,based on the data of air quality and the meteorological data in Baoding City from 2017 to 2021,the correlations of meteorological elements and pollutants with O_(3)concentration were explored to determine the forecast factors of forecast models.Secondly,the O_(3)-8h concentration in Baoding City in 2021 was predicted based on the constructed models of multiple linear regression(MLR),backward propagation neural network(BPNN),and auto regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA),and the predicted values were compared with the observed values to test their prediction effects.The results show that overall,the MLR,BPNN and ARIMA models were able to forecast the changing trend of O_(3)-8h concentration in Baoding in 2021,but the BPNN model gave better forecast results than the ARIMA and MLR models,especially for the prediction of the high values of O_(3)-8h concentration,and the correlation coefficients between the predicted values and the observed values were all higher than 0.9 during June-September.The mean error(ME),mean absolute error(MAE),and root mean square error(RMSE)of the predicted values and the observed values of daily O_(3)-8h concentration based on the BPNN model were 0.45,19.11 and 24.41μg/m 3,respectively,which were significantly better than those of the MLR and ARIMA models.The prediction effects of the MLR,BPNN and ARIMA models were the best at the pollution level,followed by the excellent level,and it was the worst at the good level.In comparison,the prediction effect of BPNN model was better than that of the MLR and ARIMA models as a whole,especially for the pollution and excellent levels.The TS scores of the BPNN model were all above 66%,and the PC values were above 86%.The BPNN model can forecast the changing trend of O_(3)concentration more accurately,and has a good practical application value,but at the same time,the predicted high values of O_(3)concentration should be appropriately increased according to error characteristics of the model.
文摘Transpiration element is included in the integrated stomatal conductance photosynthesis model by considering gaseous transfer processes, so the present model is capable to simulate the influence of boundary layer conductance. Leuning in his revised Ball's model replaced relative humidity with VPD s (the vapor pressure deficit from stomatal pore to leaf surface) and thereby made the relation with transpiration more straightforward, and made it possible for the regulation of transpiration and the influence of boundary layer conductance to be integrated into the combined model. If the differences in water vapor and CO 2 concentration between leaf and ambient air are considered, VPD s , the evaporative demand, is influenced by stomatal and boundary layer conductance. The physiological responses of photosynthesis, transpiration, and stomatal function, and the changes of intercellular CO 2 and water use efficiency to environmental factors, such as wind speed, photon flux density, leaf temperature and ambient CO 2, are analyzed. It is shown that if the boundary layer conductance drops to a level comparable with stomatal conductance, the results of simulation by the model presented here differ significantly from those by the previous model, and, in some cases, are more realistic than the latter.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61604038)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2015M580376)+1 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.BK20160691)Jiangsu Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.1501010A)
文摘A novel simulation program with an integrated circuit emphasis（SPICE） model developed for trench-gate metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistor（M OSFET）devices is proposed. The drift region resistance was modeled according to the physical characteristics and the specific structure of the trench-gate MOSFET device. For the accurate simulation of dynamic characteristics, three important capacitances, gate-to-drain capacitance Cgd, gate-to-source capacitance Cgsand drain-to-source capacitance Cds, were modeled, respectively, in the proposed model. Furthermore,the self-heating effect, temperature effect and breakdown characteristic were taken into account; the self-heating model and breakdown model were built in the proposed model; and the temperature parameters of the model were revised. The proposed model is verified by experimental results, and the errors between measured data and simulation results of the novel model are less than 5%. Therefore, the model can give an accurate description for both the static and dynamic characteristics of the trench-gate MOSFET device.
基金supported by the Project of the 12th Five-year National Sci-Tech Support Plan of China(2011BAK12B09)China Special Project of Basic Work of Science and Technology(2011FY110100-2)
文摘Bailongjiang watershed in southern Gansu province, China, is one of the most landslide-prone regions in China, characterized by very high frequency of landslide occurrence. In order to predict the landslide occurrence, a comprehensive map of landslide susceptibility is required which may be significantly helpful in reducing loss of property and human life. In this study, an integrated model of information value method and logistic regression is proposed by using their merits at maximum and overcoming their weaknesses, which may enhance precision and accuracy of landslide susceptibility assessment. A detailed and reliable landslide inventory with 1587 landslides was prepared and randomly divided into two groups,(i) training dataset and(ii) testing dataset. Eight distinct landslide conditioning factors including lithology, slope gradient, aspect, elevation, distance to drainages,distance to faults, distance to roads and vegetation coverage were selected for landslide susceptibility mapping. The produced landslide susceptibility maps were validated by the success rate and prediction rate curves. The validation results show that the success rate and the prediction rate of the integrated model are 81.7 % and 84.6 %, respectively, which indicate that the proposed integrated method is reliable to produce an accurate landslide susceptibility map and the results may be used for landslides management and mitigation.
基金Under the auspices of the Social Science Foundation of China (No. 40771059)Project of Key Research Institute of Humanities and Social Science of Anhui Provincial Education Department (No. 2008sk082rd)
文摘The grounded theory of qualitative methods was applied to researching the social integration of tourism la-bor migrants in the Jiuhua Mountain of Anhui Province, China. The research was conducted based on the in-depth in-terviewing of 15 samples, open-consultation and the analysis of secondhand data. The integration models of tourism labor migrants in the Jiuhua Mountain were formed through four processes including theoretic sampling, cod-ing-analysis, cross-tabulation and contextualization. The result shows that modes of production and life styles decide self-integration orientation of tourism labor migrants in the Jiuhua Mountain. Cultural differences are fundamental dis-similarity between tourism labor migrants and natives. There are three kinds of integration models including rapid, free and gradually advancing integration. The differences among different types of migrants’ integration models are re-markable. Taking the working integration as the abscissa and taking the life integration as the coordinate, an "S" model of integration matrix appears in the gradually advancing integration of intermediate and high administers from the working to the life which should be paid special attention to.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2018YFC0214102)。
文摘The source apportionment of PM2.5 is essential for pollution prevention.In view of the weaknesses of individual models,we proposed an integrated chemical mass balancesource emission inventory(CMB-SEI)model to acquire more accurate results.First,the SEI of secondary component precursors(SO2,NOx,NH3,and VOCs)was compiled to acquire the emission ratios of these sources for the precursors.Then,a regular CMB simulation was executed to obtain the contributions of primary particle sources and secondary components(SO4^2-,NO3^-3,NH4^+,and SOC).Afterwards,the contributions of secondary components were apportioned into primary sources according to the source emission ratios.The final source apportionment results combined the contributions of primary sources by CMB and SEI.This integrated approach was carried out via a case study of three coastal cities(Zhoushan,Taizhou,and Wenzhou;abbreviated WZ,TZ,and ZS)in Zhejiang Province,China.The regular CMB simulation results showed that PM2.5 pollution was mainly affected by secondary components and mobile sources.The SEI results indicated that electricity,industrial production and mobile sources were the largest contributors to the emission of PM2.5 gaseous precursors.The simulation results of the CMB-SEI model showed that PM2.5 pollution in the coastal areas of Zhejiang Province presented complex pollution characteristics dominated by mobile sources,electricity production sources and industrial production sources.Compared to the results of the CMB and SEI models alone,the CMB-SEI model completely apportioned PM2.5 to primary sources and simultaneously made the results more accurate and reliable in accordance with local industrial characteristics.
文摘This article describes the integrated modeling approach for planning the size and the operation of constructed wetlands for maximizing retention of nonpoint source pollutant loads and reservoir water-quality improvement at a catchment scale. The experimental field-scale wetland systems （four sets, 0.88 ha each） have been in operation since 2002, where water depth was maintained at 30-50 cm and hydraulic loading rate was at 6.3-18.8 cm/day. The wetland system was found to be adequate for treating polluted stream water with stable removal efficiency even during the winter. The integrated modeling system （modified-BASINS） was applied to the Seokmoon estuarine reservoir watershed and calibrated with monitoring data from constructed wetland, stream, and reservoir. The calibrated integrated modeling system estimated that constructing wetlands on 0.5% （about 114 ha） of the watershed area at the mouth of reservoir could reduce 11.61% and 13.49% of total external nitrogen and phosphorus loads, respectively. It also might improve the nitrogen and phosphorus concentration of the reservoir by 9.69% and 16.48%, respectively. The study suggested that about 0.1%-1.0% of the watershed area should be allocated for constructed wetland to meet specified water-quality standards for the estuarine reservoir at the polder area where land use planning is relatively less complicated.
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.2652019191)China Geological Survey(No.1212011120187)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41502347)。
文摘The demand for fluorite resource is increasing rapidly as most fluorite deposits on Earth’s surface have been exhausted.The newly discovered fluorite deposits in Inner Mongolia are hosted by Permian metamorphosed sandy slate,intermediate-acid intrusive rocks and Cretaceous volcanic sedimentary rocks.The ore bodies are strictly controlled by faults and buried by cover rocks.The feasibility and effectiveness of multi-techniques for prospecting concealed fluorite ore bodies are evaluated,and 10 anomalies are delineated.On the basis of geological features and effectiveness of different methods,the optimum combinations of ore prospecting techniques are proposed for the exploration of zonal type and burial type concealed fluorite ore bodies.Based on comprehensive researches,an integrated exploration model is proposed:(i)select key prospecting targets based on geological backgrounds,regional geochemical anomalies of F and Ca,and remote sensing images;(ii)identify the spatial distribution of low resistivity anomaly and ore-controlling structure from geophysical survey;(iii)evaluate the mineralization potential in fault zone based on F and Ca anomalies in key sections selected from low resistivity anomaly zones;and(iv)evaluate the mineralization potential and reveal the spatial distribution of fluorite ore bodies and ore-controlling faults based on integrated geophysical and geochemical anomalies.The integrated exploration model is verified to be a powerful tool for prospecting concealed fluorite ore bodies in coverage area.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos.2012CB955604 and 2014CB953903)the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (Grant No.41375112)
文摘This study introduces a new global climate model--the Integrated Climate Model （ICM）--developed for the seasonal prediction of East Asian-western North Pacific （EA-WNP） climate by the Center for Monsoon System Research at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics （CMSR, IAP）, Chinese Academy of Sciences. ICM integrates ECHAM5 and NEMO2.3 as its atmospheric and oceanic components, respectively, using OASIS3 as the coupler. The simulation skill of ICM is evaluated here, including the simulated climatology, interannual variation, and the influence of E1 Nifio as one of the most important factors on EA-WNP climate. ICM successfully reproduces the distribution of sea surface temperature （SST） and precipitation without climate shift, the seasonal cycle of equatorial Pacific SST, and the precipitation and circulation of East Asian summer monsoon. The most prominent biases of ICM are the excessive cold tongue and unrealistic westward phase propagation of equatorial Pacific SST. The main interannual variation of the tropical Pacific SST and EA-WNP climate E1 Nifio and the East Asia-Pacific Pattern--are also well simulated in ICM, with realistic spatial pattern and period. The simulated E1 Nifio has significant impact on EA-WNP climate, as in other models. The assessment shows ICM should be a reliable model for the seasonal prediction of EA-WNP climate.
基金financially supported by the Health and Family Planning Commission of Hubei Province(No.WJ2017F047)the Health and Family Planning Commission of Wuhan(No.WG17D05)
文摘Outbreaks of hand-foot-mouth disease（HFMD） have occurred many times and caused serious health burden in China since 2008. Application of modern information technology to prediction and early response can be helpful for efficient HFMD prevention and control. A seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average（ARIMA） model for time series analysis was designed in this study. Eighty-four-month（from January 2009 to December 2015） retrospective data obtained from the Chinese Information System for Disease Prevention and Control were subjected to ARIMA modeling. The coefficient of determination（R^2）, normalized Bayesian Information Criterion（BIC） and Q-test P value were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of constructed models. Subsequently, the best-fitted ARIMA model was applied to predict the expected incidence of HFMD from January 2016 to December 2016. The best-fitted seasonal ARIMA model was identified as（1,0,1）（0,1,1）12, with the largest coefficient of determination（R^2=0.743） and lowest normalized BIC（BIC=3.645） value. The residuals of the model also showed non-significant autocorrelations（P_（Box-Ljung（Q））=0.299）. The predictions by the optimum ARIMA model adequately captured the pattern in the data and exhibited two peaks of activity over the forecast interval, including a major peak during April to June, and again a light peak for September to November. The ARIMA model proposed in this study can forecast HFMD incidence trend effectively, which could provide useful support for future HFMD prevention and control in the study area. Besides, further observations should be added continually into the modeling data set, and parameters of the models should be adjusted accordingly.
