For predictive purposes and for understanding the relationship between the US market and Canadian newsprint producers an econometric model was built. In this study, a simultaneous-equation model was developed, which c...For predictive purposes and for understanding the relationship between the US market and Canadian newsprint producers an econometric model was built. In this study, a simultaneous-equation model was developed, which consisted of four equations, one each for the supply, export, consumption and price of newsprint. The period of 1955-1986 was covered by this model. The data for the years 1985 and 1986 were reserved to test the predictive power of the model. In fitting the four equations for the period of 1955 -1984, the coefficients of determination, the R -square values, between observed and predicted values were higher than 99 per cent. The test results of the forecasting power showed that there was no statistically significant difference between predicted and observed values at the 5 per cent level of significance. Sources of forecasting error are expressed as three partial inequality coefficients associated with bias, variance and covariance of predicted and observed values. The error could not be展开更多
In recent years,carbon emissions have gradually evolved from an environment issue into a political and economic one.Carbon tariff has brought about new trade barriers of developed countries,and in order to enhance the...In recent years,carbon emissions have gradually evolved from an environment issue into a political and economic one.Carbon tariff has brought about new trade barriers of developed countries,and in order to enhance the industrial competitiveness of developed countries,it will produce unfavorable impact on developing countries.Concentrated on the manufacturing industry,which is the most intensive high-carbon industry in China's export structure,this article studies the relationship between carbon tariff policy and industry structure of export trade and builds up a relation between climate change and international trade.First,by means of establishing a partial equilibrium model,it applies geometric analysis and mathematical analysis to compute the impact on China's manufacturing export trade and the consequences of the introduction of the US carbon tariff to China's manufacturing industry that has already imposed a domestic shipping carbon tax.Furthermore,with the application of the GTAP model,it estimates the overall economic and welfare effects on China's manufacturing industry if the US and Europe introduce carbon tariff by means of four ways,and then analyzes the influence on China's manufacturing industry export structure and social welfare as well.The result shows that the introduction of the US carbon import tariff lowers China's export price and export volume,and the implementation of a domestic carbon tax justifies a higher export price and a lower export volume for China.However,the degree of export reduction is smaller than that under the effect of the US carbon tariff.In the case of developed countries imposing carbon tariff on China's energy-intensive industries,such as chemical rubber products,oil and coal-processing industry and paper industry,whose export would be reduced,the negative impact on the paper industry is the severest,which will decrease the paper industry's export ranging from 1.79%to 6.05%,whereas the other industries' export will increase.Anyhow,it will promote China's manufacturing industry to adjust the export structure to a certain extent.In addition,it will lead to a decrease in China's welfare,with a decrease between $2,134 billion and $8,347 billion.Finally,this paper provides information on international coordination,export structure adjustment and green manufacturing adjustment as a reference for the development of China's manufacturing industry.展开更多
Carbon-motivated border tax adjustment is a unilateral international trade policy aimed at compensating for the loss ofcompetitiveness of carbon-intensive products due to carbon dioxide abatement actions.It violates f...Carbon-motivated border tax adjustment is a unilateral international trade policy aimed at compensating for the loss ofcompetitiveness of carbon-intensive products due to carbon dioxide abatement actions.It violates fundamental principlesof the UNFCCC and potentially conflicts with the core WTO principle of non-discrimination as reflected in the GATTArticle Ⅰ and Article Ⅲ.Based on an analysis of carbon emissions embodied in China’s industrial exports,this paperevaluates with a recursive dynamic CGE model the potential impacts of the carbon duty on China’s industrial production,exports and employment.The results of a simulation show that with a tariff rate of US＄30 or US＄60 per ton of carbon,theoutput of China’s industrial sectors would decline by 0.62-1.22 percent,exports by 3.53-6.95 percent,and employment by1.22-2.39 percent.The authors suggest several measures of alleviating the impacts of carbon duty and put forward a carbonduty policy based on carbon consumption per capita as a countermeasure.展开更多
Since reform and opening-up in 1978, changes in China's industrial structure have generally followed the pattern of "Kuznets facts" but still exhibits some unique characteristics, which led us to raise t...Since reform and opening-up in 1978, changes in China's industrial structure have generally followed the pattern of "Kuznets facts" but still exhibits some unique characteristics, which led us to raise the following three questions regarding China's structural transformation:(1) Why did the share of China's agricultural and manufacturing employment reduce/increase intermittently rather than continuously?(2) Why did the share of China's agricultural employment increase during certain periods? When the share of manufacturing employment reduced, why did the workforce reversely flow into agriculture rather than move to the service sector?(3) Why did growth in the share of China's service sector employment decelerate before reaching its peak? Why did the share of employment in the industrial sector suddenly increase after an abrupt decline? This paper creates a multisector economic growth model that contains non-homothetic preferences and differentiated productivity, and incorporates the "two drivers" therein for a demand-side estimation and analysis. The result shows that China's economic growth model driven by net export and investment is a critical factor for explaining the three questions regarding its structural transformation. This paper believes that only by implementing supply-side structural reforms, reducing the dependence on net export and investment, and achieving sustainable endogenous economic growth will China be able to expedite its industrial restructuring.展开更多
Non-point source(NPS) pollution is considered to be one of the main threats of the aquatic environment. Mountainous regions are particularly important water sources for urban areas. The various driving factors of NPS ...Non-point source(NPS) pollution is considered to be one of the main threats of the aquatic environment. Mountainous regions are particularly important water sources for urban areas. The various driving factors of NPS pollution such as terrain, precipitation, and vegetation type in mountainous regions show clear spatial heterogeneity. Consequently, the management systems required for NPS pollution in mountainous regions are complex. In this study, we developed a framework to estimate and map the treatment costs for NPS pollution in mountainous regions and applied this method in Baoxing County, a typical mountainous county in Sichuan Province of southwest China. The export levels of total nitrogen(TN) and total phosphorus(TP) in Baoxing County were estimated using the water purification model in InVEST(Itegrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) tool. NPS pollutant treatment costs were calculated based on the level of pollutants exports, water yield, water quality targets, and treatment costs of NPS pollutants per unit mass. The results show that at the watershed level the amounts of TN and TP exported in Baoxing County were below threshold limits. However, at the sub-watershed level, TN and TP excesses of 291.64 and 2.96 tons per year were found, respectively, with mean TN and TP treatment costs of 6.58 US$/hm^2 and 0.35 US$/hm^2. Appraising pollution treatment cost intuitively reflects the overall expenditure in NPS pollution reduction from an economic perspective. This study provides a foundation for the implementation of Payment for Ecosystem Service(PES) and the prevention and control of NPS pollution.展开更多
Overall level of export fluctuations of the export-oriented countries with rising export volume partly stem from the market failure caused by free choice of export enterprises,some government intervention thus may be ...Overall level of export fluctuations of the export-oriented countries with rising export volume partly stem from the market failure caused by free choice of export enterprises,some government intervention thus may be necessary.To reduce the level of fluctuations of the export growth rates in these countries,this paper,taking the significant differences of the exports among various markets into account and thus using a new index named relative variance to measure the export volatility risks,proposes a model of merchandise market portfolio,a modified version of Markowitz model,available to provide explicit guidelines for the firms,the industries and even the whole country to optimize the structure of their export markets.An application of this model to the case of China’s apple is then discussed.The results show that the market share of China’s apple in 7 sub-markets should be redistributed drastically.展开更多
The establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area has promoted the friendly bilateral economic cooperation,and ASEAN has become one of the largest vegetable export markets for China. Using constant market share( CMS) m...The establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area has promoted the friendly bilateral economic cooperation,and ASEAN has become one of the largest vegetable export markets for China. Using constant market share( CMS) model,this paper analyzes the export competitiveness of vegetables from China to ASEAN and the main influencing factors. The results show that competitiveness is the main factor in promoting the export growth of vegetables from China to ASEAN,and compared with demand effect and structure effect,competitiveness effect makes the greatest contribution to export growth.展开更多
文摘For predictive purposes and for understanding the relationship between the US market and Canadian newsprint producers an econometric model was built. In this study, a simultaneous-equation model was developed, which consisted of four equations, one each for the supply, export, consumption and price of newsprint. The period of 1955-1986 was covered by this model. The data for the years 1985 and 1986 were reserved to test the predictive power of the model. In fitting the four equations for the period of 1955 -1984, the coefficients of determination, the R -square values, between observed and predicted values were higher than 99 per cent. The test results of the forecasting power showed that there was no statistically significant difference between predicted and observed values at the 5 per cent level of significance. Sources of forecasting error are expressed as three partial inequality coefficients associated with bias, variance and covariance of predicted and observed values. The error could not be
基金Humanities and Social Science Project of the Ministry of Education[grant number 12YJA790052]Scientific Research Projects in Liaoning Provincial Department of Education[grant number W2013081]Innovation Team Project of Dalian Maritime University[grant number 3132013329]
文摘In recent years,carbon emissions have gradually evolved from an environment issue into a political and economic one.Carbon tariff has brought about new trade barriers of developed countries,and in order to enhance the industrial competitiveness of developed countries,it will produce unfavorable impact on developing countries.Concentrated on the manufacturing industry,which is the most intensive high-carbon industry in China's export structure,this article studies the relationship between carbon tariff policy and industry structure of export trade and builds up a relation between climate change and international trade.First,by means of establishing a partial equilibrium model,it applies geometric analysis and mathematical analysis to compute the impact on China's manufacturing export trade and the consequences of the introduction of the US carbon tariff to China's manufacturing industry that has already imposed a domestic shipping carbon tax.Furthermore,with the application of the GTAP model,it estimates the overall economic and welfare effects on China's manufacturing industry if the US and Europe introduce carbon tariff by means of four ways,and then analyzes the influence on China's manufacturing industry export structure and social welfare as well.The result shows that the introduction of the US carbon import tariff lowers China's export price and export volume,and the implementation of a domestic carbon tax justifies a higher export price and a lower export volume for China.However,the degree of export reduction is smaller than that under the effect of the US carbon tariff.In the case of developed countries imposing carbon tariff on China's energy-intensive industries,such as chemical rubber products,oil and coal-processing industry and paper industry,whose export would be reduced,the negative impact on the paper industry is the severest,which will decrease the paper industry's export ranging from 1.79%to 6.05%,whereas the other industries' export will increase.Anyhow,it will promote China's manufacturing industry to adjust the export structure to a certain extent.In addition,it will lead to a decrease in China's welfare,with a decrease between $2,134 billion and $8,347 billion.Finally,this paper provides information on international coordination,export structure adjustment and green manufacturing adjustment as a reference for the development of China's manufacturing industry.
文摘Carbon-motivated border tax adjustment is a unilateral international trade policy aimed at compensating for the loss ofcompetitiveness of carbon-intensive products due to carbon dioxide abatement actions.It violates fundamental principlesof the UNFCCC and potentially conflicts with the core WTO principle of non-discrimination as reflected in the GATTArticle Ⅰ and Article Ⅲ.Based on an analysis of carbon emissions embodied in China’s industrial exports,this paperevaluates with a recursive dynamic CGE model the potential impacts of the carbon duty on China’s industrial production,exports and employment.The results of a simulation show that with a tariff rate of US＄30 or US＄60 per ton of carbon,theoutput of China’s industrial sectors would decline by 0.62-1.22 percent,exports by 3.53-6.95 percent,and employment by1.22-2.39 percent.The authors suggest several measures of alleviating the impacts of carbon duty and put forward a carbonduty policy based on carbon consumption per capita as a countermeasure.
文摘Since reform and opening-up in 1978, changes in China's industrial structure have generally followed the pattern of "Kuznets facts" but still exhibits some unique characteristics, which led us to raise the following three questions regarding China's structural transformation:(1) Why did the share of China's agricultural and manufacturing employment reduce/increase intermittently rather than continuously?(2) Why did the share of China's agricultural employment increase during certain periods? When the share of manufacturing employment reduced, why did the workforce reversely flow into agriculture rather than move to the service sector?(3) Why did growth in the share of China's service sector employment decelerate before reaching its peak? Why did the share of employment in the industrial sector suddenly increase after an abrupt decline? This paper creates a multisector economic growth model that contains non-homothetic preferences and differentiated productivity, and incorporates the "two drivers" therein for a demand-side estimation and analysis. The result shows that China's economic growth model driven by net export and investment is a critical factor for explaining the three questions regarding its structural transformation. This paper believes that only by implementing supply-side structural reforms, reducing the dependence on net export and investment, and achieving sustainable endogenous economic growth will China be able to expedite its industrial restructuring.
基金sponsored by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41371539)Guangxi Natural Science Foundation Program (Grant Nos. 2018GXNSFBA138026)Guangxi Young and Middle-aged University Teachers’ Scientific Research Ability Enhancement Project (Grant Nos. 2018KY0360)
文摘Non-point source(NPS) pollution is considered to be one of the main threats of the aquatic environment. Mountainous regions are particularly important water sources for urban areas. The various driving factors of NPS pollution such as terrain, precipitation, and vegetation type in mountainous regions show clear spatial heterogeneity. Consequently, the management systems required for NPS pollution in mountainous regions are complex. In this study, we developed a framework to estimate and map the treatment costs for NPS pollution in mountainous regions and applied this method in Baoxing County, a typical mountainous county in Sichuan Province of southwest China. The export levels of total nitrogen(TN) and total phosphorus(TP) in Baoxing County were estimated using the water purification model in InVEST(Itegrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs) tool. NPS pollutant treatment costs were calculated based on the level of pollutants exports, water yield, water quality targets, and treatment costs of NPS pollutants per unit mass. The results show that at the watershed level the amounts of TN and TP exported in Baoxing County were below threshold limits. However, at the sub-watershed level, TN and TP excesses of 291.64 and 2.96 tons per year were found, respectively, with mean TN and TP treatment costs of 6.58 US$/hm^2 and 0.35 US$/hm^2. Appraising pollution treatment cost intuitively reflects the overall expenditure in NPS pollution reduction from an economic perspective. This study provides a foundation for the implementation of Payment for Ecosystem Service(PES) and the prevention and control of NPS pollution.
基金the project(2018GWQNCX038)for innovative talents in regular universities of the Department of education of Guangdong Province in 2019.
文摘Overall level of export fluctuations of the export-oriented countries with rising export volume partly stem from the market failure caused by free choice of export enterprises,some government intervention thus may be necessary.To reduce the level of fluctuations of the export growth rates in these countries,this paper,taking the significant differences of the exports among various markets into account and thus using a new index named relative variance to measure the export volatility risks,proposes a model of merchandise market portfolio,a modified version of Markowitz model,available to provide explicit guidelines for the firms,the industries and even the whole country to optimize the structure of their export markets.An application of this model to the case of China’s apple is then discussed.The results show that the market share of China’s apple in 7 sub-markets should be redistributed drastically.
文摘The establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area has promoted the friendly bilateral economic cooperation,and ASEAN has become one of the largest vegetable export markets for China. Using constant market share( CMS) model,this paper analyzes the export competitiveness of vegetables from China to ASEAN and the main influencing factors. The results show that competitiveness is the main factor in promoting the export growth of vegetables from China to ASEAN,and compared with demand effect and structure effect,competitiveness effect makes the greatest contribution to export growth.
