Given the crucial role of land surface processes in global and regional climates, there is a pressing need to test and verify the performance of land surface models via comparisons to observations. In this study, the ...Given the crucial role of land surface processes in global and regional climates, there is a pressing need to test and verify the performance of land surface models via comparisons to observations. In this study, the eddy covariance measurements from 20 FLUXNET sites spanning more than 100 site-years were utilized to evaluate the performance of the Common Land Model （CoLM） over different vegetation types in various climate zones. A decomposition method was employed to separate both the observed and simulated energy fluxes, i.e., the sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, net radiation, and ground heat flux, at three timescales ranging from stepwise （30 rain） to monthly. A comparison between the simulations and observations indicated that CoLM produced satisfactory simulations of all four energy fluxes, although the different indexes did not exhibit consistent results among the different fluxes, A strong agreement between the simulations and observations was found for the seasonal cycles at the 20 sites, whereas CoLM underestimated the latent heat flux at the sites with distinct dry and wet seasons, which might be associated with its weakness in simulating soil water during the dry season. CoLM cannot explicitly simulate the midday depression of leaf gas exchange, which may explain why CoLM also has a maximum diurnal bias at noon in the summer. Of the eight selected vegetation types analyzed, CoLM performs best for evergreen broadleaf forests and worst for croplands and wetlands.展开更多
Towards a better understanding of hydrological interactions between the land surface and atmosphere, land surface mod- els are routinely used to simulate hydro-meteorological fluxes. However, there is a lack of observ...Towards a better understanding of hydrological interactions between the land surface and atmosphere, land surface mod- els are routinely used to simulate hydro-meteorological fluxes. However, there is a lack of observations available for model forcing, to estimate the hydro-meteorological fluxes in East Asia. In this study, Common Land Model （CLM） was used in offline-mode during the summer monsoon period of 2006 in East Asia, with different forcings from Asiaflux, Korea Land Data Assimilation System （KLDAS）, and Global Land Data Assimilation System （GLDAS）, at point and regional scales, separately. The CLM results were compared with observations from Asiaflux sites. The estimated net radiation showed good agreement, with r = 0.99 for the point scale and 0.85 for the regional scale. The estimated sensible and latent heat fluxes using Asiaflux and KLDAS data indicated reasonable agreement, with r = 0.70. The estimated soil moisture and soil temperature showed similar patterns to observations, although the estimated water fluxes using KLDAS showed larger discrepancies than those of Asiaflux because of scale mismatch. The spatial distribution of hydro-meteorological fluxes according to KLDAS for East Asia were compared to the CLM results with GLDAS, and the GLDAS provided online. The spatial distributions of CLM with KLDAS were analogous to CLM with GLDAS, and the standalone GLDAS data. The results indicate that KLDAS is a good potential source of high spatial resolution forcing data. Therefore, the KLDAS is a promising alternative product, capable of compensating for the lack of observations and low resolution grid data for East Asia.展开更多
Background:An increasing number of ecological processes have been incorporated into Earth system models.However,model evaluations usually lag behind the fast development of models,leading to a pervasive simulation unc...Background:An increasing number of ecological processes have been incorporated into Earth system models.However,model evaluations usually lag behind the fast development of models,leading to a pervasive simulation uncertainty in key ecological processes,especially the terrestrial carbon(C)cycle.Traceability analysis provides a theoretical basis for tracking and quantifying the structural uncertainty of simulated C storage in models.Thus,a new tool of model evaluation based on the traceability analysis is urgently needed to efficiently diagnose the sources of inter-model variations on the terrestrial C cycle in Earth system models.Methods:A new cloud-based model evaluation platform,i.e.,the online traceability analysis system for model evaluation(TraceME v1.0),was established.The TraceME was applied to analyze the uncertainties of seven models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6).Results:The TraceME can effectively diagnose the key sources of different land C dynamics among CMIIP6 models.For example,the analyses based on TraceME showed that the estimation of global land C storage varied about 2.4 folds across the seven CMIP6 models.Among all models,IPSL-CM6A-LR simulated the lowest land C storage,which mainly resulted from its shortest baseline C residence time.Over the historical period of 1850–2014,gross primary productivity and baseline C residence time were the major uncertainty contributors to the inter-model variation in ecosystem C storage in most land grid cells.Conclusion:TraceME can facilitate model evaluation by identifying sources of model uncertainty and provides a new tool for the next generation of model evaluation.展开更多
The veracity of land evaluation is tightly related to the reasonable weights of land evaluation fac- tors. By mapping qualitative linguistic words into a fine-changeable cloud drops and translating the uncertain facto...The veracity of land evaluation is tightly related to the reasonable weights of land evaluation fac- tors. By mapping qualitative linguistic words into a fine-changeable cloud drops and translating the uncertain factor conditions into quantitative values with the uncertain illation based on cloud model, and then, inte- grating correlation analysis, a new way of figuring out the weight of land evaluation factors is proposed. It may solve the limitations of the conventional ways.展开更多
The ECHAM5 model is coupled with the widely used Common Land Model(CoLM). ECHAM5 is a state-of-theart atmospheric general circulation model incorporated into the integrated weather and climate model of the Chinese Aca...The ECHAM5 model is coupled with the widely used Common Land Model(CoLM). ECHAM5 is a state-of-theart atmospheric general circulation model incorporated into the integrated weather and climate model of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS-CSM). Land surface schemes in ECHAM5 are simple and do not provide an adequate representation of the vegetation canopy and snow/frozen soil processes. Two AMIP(Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project)-type experiments using ECHAM5 and ECHAM5-CoLM are run over 30 yr and the results are compared with reanalysis and observational data. It is found that the pattern of land surface temperature simulated by ECHAM5-CoLM is significantly improved relative to ECHAM5. Specifically, the cold bias over Eurasia is removed and the root-mean-square error is reduced in most regions. The seasonal variation in the zonal mean land surface temperature and the in situ soil temperature at 20-and 80-cm depths are both better simulated by ECHAM5-CoLM. ECHAM5-CoLM produces a more reasonable spatial pattern in the soil moisture content, whereas ECHAM5 predicts much drier soils. The seasonal cycle of soil moisture content from ECHAM5-CoLM is a better match to the observational data in six specific regions. ECHAM5-CoLM reproduces the observed spatial patterns of both sensible and latent heat fluxes. The strong positive bias in precipitation over land is reduced in ECHAM5-CoLM, especially over the southern Tibetan Plateau and middle–lower reaches of the Yangtze River during the summer monsoon rainy season.展开更多
As an important and typical arid inland region in China,Shiyang River Basin plays an important role in maintaining the sustainable development of eco-environment,whose ecological land suitability restricts the develop...As an important and typical arid inland region in China,Shiyang River Basin plays an important role in maintaining the sustainable development of eco-environment,whose ecological land suitability restricts the development of the local human activities.Therefore,Shiyang River Basin was selected as the case study,the minimum cumulative resistance(MCR)model and GIS technique were integrated to create land suitability evaluation map.We calculated the MCR value of ecological source and living source,and divided the whole basin into five partitions according to the difference between ecological source and living source,and analyzed the patterns and characteristics of the ecological land suitability evaluation(ELSE)regions,respectively.The results showed that:1)The suitable ecological land includes prohibited development region and restricted development region,which accounts for 15.45%and 23.35%of the total land area of the Shiyang River Basin,respectively.These two regions mainly distributed high altitude region in the southern Qilian Mountain and low altitude region where had high density of rivers.2)The protection of ecological land requires not only conserving existing ecological land but also focusing on ecological buffer belts around ecological sources and improving ecological land service ability.3)Ecological networks should be constructed through artificial planting trees around the boundary of oasis and ecological restoration region.Buffer greenbelts should also be established between optimized development region and ecological restoration region.展开更多
The delimitation of urban development boundaries plays an important role in optimizing the nation land space.“Double evaluation”is one of the important means to study and predict the scale of new construction land i...The delimitation of urban development boundaries plays an important role in optimizing the nation land space.“Double evaluation”is one of the important means to study and predict the scale of new construction land in the future and to determine the spatial distribution of urban construction land.This study combines the“double evaluation”with the FLUS(Future Land-Use Simulation)model to study the delimitation of the urban development boundary of Yichang.The results show that:(1)the“double evaluation”method comprehensively considers the carrying capacity of the resource environmental bear and the suitability of urban development;(2)the FLUS model can better couple the“double evaluation”method for Land Use/Land Cover(LULC)suitability evaluation,Land Use/land Cover Change(LUCC)simulation and urban development boundary delineation,and the overall accuracy of the simulation reaches 96%;(3)according to the requirements of relevant national policies,this study divides the urban development boundary of the study area into concentrated construction areas,elastic development areas and special purpose areas.This function-based division can meet the requirements of urban flexible development,ecological protection and urban safety.This research combines the FLUS model,which is widely used in the simulation of LUCC,with the double evaluation method used in China’s new round of land and space planning to obtain the result of the urban development boundary.This result is consistent with the existing plan of the study area.展开更多
The paper applies multi-dimension to lower technology-projection pursuit evaluation model in the conservation of water and soil discipline domain, optimizes the projection direction using the improved acceleration gen...The paper applies multi-dimension to lower technology-projection pursuit evaluation model in the conservation of water and soil discipline domain, optimizes the projection direction using the improved acceleration genetic algorithms, transforms the multi-dimensional data target to lower sub-space, and values soil adaptability of Dongdagou basin in Keshan County by searching the optimal projection direction and the projection function data. The paper provides a new notion and method for the conservation of water and soil in small basin.展开更多
The current suitability evaluation methods for land resources human activity in China suffer from theoretical deficiencies related to fundamental data accuracy,elevation and slope classification,and suitability class ...The current suitability evaluation methods for land resources human activity in China suffer from theoretical deficiencies related to fundamental data accuracy,elevation and slope classification,and suitability class judgment.Empirical application of these methods is also hindered by excessive evaluation indicators,data acquisition difficulties,and limited applicability to high altitude regions.To address these issues,this paper proposes a technical evaluation framework for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP)that employs selected key parameters varying with elevation and slope to establish grid-scale evaluation models for construction land suitability(CLS)and arable land suitability(ALS).A generalized algorithm is then proposed for key parameters such as air density,air temperature,slope suitability for construction,and soil erosion resistance of sloping arable land.Empirical research is conducted using Milin County in southeast Xizang as a case study,with interval measurements of 100 m in elevation and 1°in slope.The evaluation model is tested using grid accuracies of 30 m,50 m,100 m,250 m,500 m,and 1000 m.The results reveal that:Firstly,the CLS and ALS can be categorized into five classes:highly suitable,suitable,moderately suitable,marginally suitable,and unsuitable,with varying area ratios under different grid accuracies.Secondly,existing construction lands in Milin County are mainly distributed in suitable,highly suitable,and moderately suitable CLS classes,accounting for over 94%of the total area studied under different grid accuracies.While arable land is mainly distributed in suitable,highly suitable,and moderately suitable ALS classes,accounting for over 96%.Thirdly,the empirical research in Milin County indicates that the evaluation method,quantitative model,and parameters algorithm for evaluating human activity suitability of land resources on the QTP are feasible and applicable,with a recommended grid accuracy within 100 m and a maximum of 250 m.Fourthly,the paper establishes a correspondence between land suitability(including construction land and arable land)and topographic factors(elevation and slope)that can be applied to the QTP.Finally,some professional defects in the evaluation methods of available land resources in Major Function Zoning and“Double Evaluations”of Territorial Spatial Planning in China when applied to the QTP are identified.展开更多
Cultivated land is an important natural resource to ensure food,ecological and economic security.The cultivated land quality evaluation(CQE)is greatly significant for protecting and managing cultivated land.In this st...Cultivated land is an important natural resource to ensure food,ecological and economic security.The cultivated land quality evaluation(CQE)is greatly significant for protecting and managing cultivated land.In this study,320 counties in the black soil region of Northeast China(BSRNC)represent the research units used to construct the CQE system measuring the soil properties(SP),cultivated land productivity(CLP),ecological environment(EE)and social economy(SE).The total of 19 factors were selected to calculate the integrated fertility index(IFI)and divided into grades.Simultaneously,we used the coupling coordination degree model to comprehensively analyze the spatial pattern of the cultivated land quality(CLQ)in the BSRNC,and use the structural equation model(SEM)to analyze the driving mechanism.The results show the following:1)The CLQ of 262 counties in the BSRNC is in a state of coupling and coordination,and the coupling and coordination degree presents a spatial distribution pattern of‘high in the southwest and northeast,low in the northwest and southeast’.The coordinated development degree of 271 counties is between 0.4 and 0.6,which is in a transitional state between coordination and disorder.2)The CLQ in the BSRNC is generally good,with an average grade of 3.High-quality cultivated land accounts for 58.45%of all counties,middle-and upper-quality cultivated land accounts for 27.05%,and poor-quality cultivated land accounts for 14.49%.3)The SEM analysis shows that the SP,CLP,EE,and SE all influence the CLQ.Among them,the SP has the largest driving force on the CLQ,while the SE has the smallest driving force on it.The results confirm that the main factors affecting the evaluation results are crop productivity level,normalized difference vegetation index,ratio vegetation index,difference vegetation index,and organic carbon content.When implementing protection measures in counties with a low CLQ,considering a balanced coordination of multiple systems and reasonably controlling the quality degradation are important.This study provides the current situation and driving factors of the CLQ in the BSRNC and will play an important role in black soil governance and utilization.展开更多
Any computer system with known vulnerabilities can be presented using attack graphs. An attacker generally has a mission to reach a goal state that he expects to achieve. Expected Path Length (EPL) [1] in the context ...Any computer system with known vulnerabilities can be presented using attack graphs. An attacker generally has a mission to reach a goal state that he expects to achieve. Expected Path Length (EPL) [1] in the context of an attack graph describes the length or number of steps that the attacker has to take in achieving the goal state. However, EPL varies and it is based on the “state of vulnerabilities” [2] [3] in a given computer system. Any vulnerability throughout its life cycle passes through several stages that we identify as “states of the vulnerability life cycle” [2] [3]. In our previous studies we have developed mathematical models using Markovian theory to estimate the probability of a given vulnerability being in a particular state of its life cycle. There, we have considered a typical model of a computer network system with two computers subject to three vulnerabilities, and developed a method driven by an algorithm to estimate the EPL of this network system as a function of time. This approach is important because it allows us to monitor a computer system during the process of being exploited. Proposed non-homogeneous model in this study estimates the behavior of the EPL as a function of time and therefore act as an index of the risk associated with the network system getting exploited.展开更多
An objective and quantitative evaluation method on land environmental quality for agricultural purpose in a county range is studied in this paper. The method takes into account the quantity of heat, precipitation, met...An objective and quantitative evaluation method on land environmental quality for agricultural purpose in a county range is studied in this paper. The method takes into account the quantity of heat, precipitation, meteorological disaster and soil fertility, which have close relationship to the potential productivity of land and can be expressed conveniently and accurately by taking Kai County as an example. Besides comprehensive grading assessment, assessment with Hilbert Space distance coefficiency and comprehensive judgement by fuzzy sets theory, the assessment factors are expanded to 18 parameters, and fuzzy dominance matrix and fuzzy clustering methods are adopted for regional comprehensive identification of agriculture-use land. Among these methods, each benefits from association with the other. In this paper, an all-round and objective new way for understanding of land environmental quality is put forward.展开更多
Bayesian network has a powerful ability/or reasoning and semantic representation, which combined with qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, with prior knowledge and observed data, and provides an effective w...Bayesian network has a powerful ability/or reasoning and semantic representation, which combined with qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, with prior knowledge and observed data, and provides an effective way to deal with prediction, classification and clustering. Firstly, this paper presented an overview of Bayesian network and its characteristics, and discussed how to learn a Bayesian net- work structure from given data, and then constructed a Bayesian network model for land resource evaluation with expert knowledge and the dataset. The experimental results based on the test dataset are that evaluation accuracy is 87.5%, and Kappa index is 0. 826. All these prove the method is feasible and efficient, and indicate that Bayesian network is a promising approach for land resource evaluation.展开更多
Under climate and land use changes,water cycle is expected to be intensified.This will likely result in frequent hydrometeorological extremes events such as droughts and floods,and affect the water balance components....Under climate and land use changes,water cycle is expected to be intensified.This will likely result in frequent hydrometeorological extremes events such as droughts and floods,and affect the water balance components.A distributed model(WaSiM)was calibrated and validated to evaluate water resources and flood hazard in the Zou catchment,Benin,for the period 1991–2009.The model was calibrated and validated at a threshold of 120 m3/s and its performance in simulating lower discharge was evaluated.The results show that the model was able to satisfactory simulate streamflow using different thresholds with the Kling and Gupta efficiency(KGE)between 0.5 and 0.85.The model performance decreases with increasing discharge threshold.The overall water balance predicted by the model is consistent with the hydroclimatic condition of the basin.The runoff coefficient varies between 15%and 18%(11%and 14%respectively)of the total annual rainfall during the calibration(validation)period.By considering the discharge above the threshold of 120 m3/s the model performances were acceptable with regards to the uncertainties in discharge measurement mainly in peak discharge.Hence,the model is able to reproduce satisfactorily the hydrological processes in the study area and could be used for impact assessment.展开更多
准确估算陆地生态系统呼吸(Ecosystem respiration,RE)对全球陆地生态系统碳收支研究具有重要意义.模型模拟是估算陆地RE变化的一种常用手段.然而目前陆地生态系统过程模型的RE模拟尚未得到充分验证.基于耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(Coupl...准确估算陆地生态系统呼吸(Ecosystem respiration,RE)对全球陆地生态系统碳收支研究具有重要意义.模型模拟是估算陆地RE变化的一种常用手段.然而目前陆地生态系统过程模型的RE模拟尚未得到充分验证.基于耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5,CMIP5)的通用陆面模型(Community land model,CLM)RE模拟结果和全球通量网(FLUXNET)66个站点的涡度相关通量观测数据(277条站点年数据)评估CLM模型对RE的模拟效果.结果表明:(1)在空间尺度上,CLM低估了高纬度站点RE,高估了低纬度站点RE,但高纬度低估量更大导致空间格局整体低估(相对误差为-3.56%).(2)在时间尺度上,CLM模型基本捕捉了RE的年际和季节变化,相关系数分别为0.60(P < 0.001)和0.63(P < 0.001);CLM低估年尺度和月尺度的RE(以C计),绝对误差分别是-182.21 g m-2 a-1、-120.16 g m-2 mon-1,相对误差分别是-17.84%、-10.60%.(3)CLM模型对不同植被功能型的RE模拟效果不同,由优及差依次为混交林、常绿针叶林、草地、农田、落叶阔叶林、常绿阔叶林.本研究在时空尺度上量化了CLM模型的生态系统呼吸模拟误差,并分析了土壤呼吸Q10和MRbase参数以及土壤碳库模拟等因素的影响,可为CLM模型的生态系统呼吸模块参数优化提供依据,进而提升其模拟精度.展开更多
Improving and validating land surface models based on integrated observations in deserts is one of the challenges in land modeling. Particularly, key parameters and parameterization schemes in desert regions need to b...Improving and validating land surface models based on integrated observations in deserts is one of the challenges in land modeling. Particularly, key parameters and parameterization schemes in desert regions need to be evaluated in-situ to improve the models. In this study, we calibrated the land-surface key parameters and evaluated several formulations or schemes for thermal roughness length （z 0h ） in the common land model （CoLM）. Our parameter calibration and scheme evaluation were based on the observed data during a torrid summer （29 July to 11 September 2009） over the Taklimakan Desert hinterland. First, the importance of the key parameters in the experiment was evaluated based on their physics principles and the significance of these key parameters were further validated using sensitivity test. Second, difference schemes （or physics-based formulas） of z 0h were adopted to simulate the variations of energy-related variables （e.g., sensible heat flux and surface skin temperature） and the simulated variations were then compared with the observed data. Third, the z 0h scheme that performed best （i.e., Y07） was then selected to replace the defaulted one （i.e., Z98）; the revised scheme and the superiority of Y07 over Z98 was further demonstrated by comparing the simulated results with the observed data. Admittedly, the revised model did a relatively poor job of simulating the diurnal variations of surface soil heat flux, and nighttime soil temperature was also underestimated, calling for further improvement of the model for desert regions.展开更多
The method to estimate NSSR （net surface shortwave radiation） from LST （land surface temperature） in regional scale is discussed. First, an elliptical model between the time series of normalized LST and NSSR was d...The method to estimate NSSR （net surface shortwave radiation） from LST （land surface temperature） in regional scale is discussed. First, an elliptical model between the time series of normalized LST and NSSR was developed using the daily evolution of LST and NSSR. Second, time series of LST and NSSR were simulated by common land model （CoLM） and were proved to be of high accuracy. On the basis of these, a non-linear least square ellipse fitting using the genetic algorithm method was used to fit the normalized LST and NSSR. Finally, LST was inverted using MODIS （moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer） data with the split-window algorithm, and the regional NSSR was then estimated with LST and an elliptical model. The validation result shows that the derived average NSSR of 50×50 pixels of MODIS data was quite close to the observed data, and the distribution was reasonable, which indicates that the proposed method was capable of estimating NSSR on a regional scale.展开更多
The performance evaluation of automatic carrier landing system(ACLS)is an important part in the field of carrier aircraft landing control.Combining grey analytic hierarchy theory and data normalization theory,an impro...The performance evaluation of automatic carrier landing system(ACLS)is an important part in the field of carrier aircraft landing control.Combining grey analytic hierarchy theory and data normalization theory,an improved grey analytic hierarchy method is introduced to evaluate the performance of ACLS.A complete performance evaluation indicators system of ACLS is established,and the definition and calculation formula of each indicator are provided.The grey analytic hierarchy model is modified to improve the real-time performance of the algorithm,where traditional expert scoring sampling matrix is substituted by an indicator normalized sample matrix.Taking a certain ACLS as an example,the experimental simulation is carried out,and the simulation results verify the reliability and the accuracy of the improved grey analytic hierarchy method.展开更多
基金supported by the R&D Special Fund for Nonprofit Industry (Meteorology) (Grant Nos. GYHY200706025, GYHY201206013 and GYHY201306066)
文摘Given the crucial role of land surface processes in global and regional climates, there is a pressing need to test and verify the performance of land surface models via comparisons to observations. In this study, the eddy covariance measurements from 20 FLUXNET sites spanning more than 100 site-years were utilized to evaluate the performance of the Common Land Model （CoLM） over different vegetation types in various climate zones. A decomposition method was employed to separate both the observed and simulated energy fluxes, i.e., the sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, net radiation, and ground heat flux, at three timescales ranging from stepwise （30 rain） to monthly. A comparison between the simulations and observations indicated that CoLM produced satisfactory simulations of all four energy fluxes, although the different indexes did not exhibit consistent results among the different fluxes, A strong agreement between the simulations and observations was found for the seasonal cycles at the 20 sites, whereas CoLM underestimated the latent heat flux at the sites with distinct dry and wet seasons, which might be associated with its weakness in simulating soil water during the dry season. CoLM cannot explicitly simulate the midday depression of leaf gas exchange, which may explain why CoLM also has a maximum diurnal bias at noon in the summer. Of the eight selected vegetation types analyzed, CoLM performs best for evergreen broadleaf forests and worst for croplands and wetlands.
基金supported by Space Core Technology Development Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF)funded by the Ministry of Science,ICTFuture Planning(NRF-2014M1A3A3A02034789)+1 种基金Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF)funded by the Ministry of Education(NRF-2013R1A1A2A10004743)the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant Weather Information Service Engine(WISE)project,KMA-2012-0001-A
文摘Towards a better understanding of hydrological interactions between the land surface and atmosphere, land surface mod- els are routinely used to simulate hydro-meteorological fluxes. However, there is a lack of observations available for model forcing, to estimate the hydro-meteorological fluxes in East Asia. In this study, Common Land Model （CLM） was used in offline-mode during the summer monsoon period of 2006 in East Asia, with different forcings from Asiaflux, Korea Land Data Assimilation System （KLDAS）, and Global Land Data Assimilation System （GLDAS）, at point and regional scales, separately. The CLM results were compared with observations from Asiaflux sites. The estimated net radiation showed good agreement, with r = 0.99 for the point scale and 0.85 for the regional scale. The estimated sensible and latent heat fluxes using Asiaflux and KLDAS data indicated reasonable agreement, with r = 0.70. The estimated soil moisture and soil temperature showed similar patterns to observations, although the estimated water fluxes using KLDAS showed larger discrepancies than those of Asiaflux because of scale mismatch. The spatial distribution of hydro-meteorological fluxes according to KLDAS for East Asia were compared to the CLM results with GLDAS, and the GLDAS provided online. The spatial distributions of CLM with KLDAS were analogous to CLM with GLDAS, and the standalone GLDAS data. The results indicate that KLDAS is a good potential source of high spatial resolution forcing data. Therefore, the KLDAS is a promising alternative product, capable of compensating for the lack of observations and low resolution grid data for East Asia.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2017YFA0604600)National Natural Science Foundation of China(31722009).
文摘Background:An increasing number of ecological processes have been incorporated into Earth system models.However,model evaluations usually lag behind the fast development of models,leading to a pervasive simulation uncertainty in key ecological processes,especially the terrestrial carbon(C)cycle.Traceability analysis provides a theoretical basis for tracking and quantifying the structural uncertainty of simulated C storage in models.Thus,a new tool of model evaluation based on the traceability analysis is urgently needed to efficiently diagnose the sources of inter-model variations on the terrestrial C cycle in Earth system models.Methods:A new cloud-based model evaluation platform,i.e.,the online traceability analysis system for model evaluation(TraceME v1.0),was established.The TraceME was applied to analyze the uncertainties of seven models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6).Results:The TraceME can effectively diagnose the key sources of different land C dynamics among CMIIP6 models.For example,the analyses based on TraceME showed that the estimation of global land C storage varied about 2.4 folds across the seven CMIP6 models.Among all models,IPSL-CM6A-LR simulated the lowest land C storage,which mainly resulted from its shortest baseline C residence time.Over the historical period of 1850–2014,gross primary productivity and baseline C residence time were the major uncertainty contributors to the inter-model variation in ecosystem C storage in most land grid cells.Conclusion:TraceME can facilitate model evaluation by identifying sources of model uncertainty and provides a new tool for the next generation of model evaluation.
文摘The veracity of land evaluation is tightly related to the reasonable weights of land evaluation fac- tors. By mapping qualitative linguistic words into a fine-changeable cloud drops and translating the uncertain factor conditions into quantitative values with the uncertain illation based on cloud model, and then, inte- grating correlation analysis, a new way of figuring out the weight of land evaluation factors is proposed. It may solve the limitations of the conventional ways.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFB0200801,2017YFA0604300,and 2018YFC1507003)Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20100300)Basic Research Fund of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(2017Y004)
文摘The ECHAM5 model is coupled with the widely used Common Land Model(CoLM). ECHAM5 is a state-of-theart atmospheric general circulation model incorporated into the integrated weather and climate model of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS-CSM). Land surface schemes in ECHAM5 are simple and do not provide an adequate representation of the vegetation canopy and snow/frozen soil processes. Two AMIP(Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project)-type experiments using ECHAM5 and ECHAM5-CoLM are run over 30 yr and the results are compared with reanalysis and observational data. It is found that the pattern of land surface temperature simulated by ECHAM5-CoLM is significantly improved relative to ECHAM5. Specifically, the cold bias over Eurasia is removed and the root-mean-square error is reduced in most regions. The seasonal variation in the zonal mean land surface temperature and the in situ soil temperature at 20-and 80-cm depths are both better simulated by ECHAM5-CoLM. ECHAM5-CoLM produces a more reasonable spatial pattern in the soil moisture content, whereas ECHAM5 predicts much drier soils. The seasonal cycle of soil moisture content from ECHAM5-CoLM is a better match to the observational data in six specific regions. ECHAM5-CoLM reproduces the observed spatial patterns of both sensible and latent heat fluxes. The strong positive bias in precipitation over land is reduced in ECHAM5-CoLM, especially over the southern Tibetan Plateau and middle–lower reaches of the Yangtze River during the summer monsoon rainy season.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41861040,41761047)。
文摘As an important and typical arid inland region in China,Shiyang River Basin plays an important role in maintaining the sustainable development of eco-environment,whose ecological land suitability restricts the development of the local human activities.Therefore,Shiyang River Basin was selected as the case study,the minimum cumulative resistance(MCR)model and GIS technique were integrated to create land suitability evaluation map.We calculated the MCR value of ecological source and living source,and divided the whole basin into five partitions according to the difference between ecological source and living source,and analyzed the patterns and characteristics of the ecological land suitability evaluation(ELSE)regions,respectively.The results showed that:1)The suitable ecological land includes prohibited development region and restricted development region,which accounts for 15.45%and 23.35%of the total land area of the Shiyang River Basin,respectively.These two regions mainly distributed high altitude region in the southern Qilian Mountain and low altitude region where had high density of rivers.2)The protection of ecological land requires not only conserving existing ecological land but also focusing on ecological buffer belts around ecological sources and improving ecological land service ability.3)Ecological networks should be constructed through artificial planting trees around the boundary of oasis and ecological restoration region.Buffer greenbelts should also be established between optimized development region and ecological restoration region.
基金Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province(No.2021CFB402)Key Laboratory of National Geographic Census and Monitoring,Ministry of Natural Resources(No.2020NGCMZD03)。
文摘The delimitation of urban development boundaries plays an important role in optimizing the nation land space.“Double evaluation”is one of the important means to study and predict the scale of new construction land in the future and to determine the spatial distribution of urban construction land.This study combines the“double evaluation”with the FLUS(Future Land-Use Simulation)model to study the delimitation of the urban development boundary of Yichang.The results show that:(1)the“double evaluation”method comprehensively considers the carrying capacity of the resource environmental bear and the suitability of urban development;(2)the FLUS model can better couple the“double evaluation”method for Land Use/Land Cover(LULC)suitability evaluation,Land Use/land Cover Change(LUCC)simulation and urban development boundary delineation,and the overall accuracy of the simulation reaches 96%;(3)according to the requirements of relevant national policies,this study divides the urban development boundary of the study area into concentrated construction areas,elastic development areas and special purpose areas.This function-based division can meet the requirements of urban flexible development,ecological protection and urban safety.This research combines the FLUS model,which is widely used in the simulation of LUCC,with the double evaluation method used in China’s new round of land and space planning to obtain the result of the urban development boundary.This result is consistent with the existing plan of the study area.
文摘The paper applies multi-dimension to lower technology-projection pursuit evaluation model in the conservation of water and soil discipline domain, optimizes the projection direction using the improved acceleration genetic algorithms, transforms the multi-dimensional data target to lower sub-space, and values soil adaptability of Dongdagou basin in Keshan County by searching the optimal projection direction and the projection function data. The paper provides a new notion and method for the conservation of water and soil in small basin.
基金The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research,No.2019QZKK0406The National Key Research and Development Program of China,No.2018YFD1100101。
文摘The current suitability evaluation methods for land resources human activity in China suffer from theoretical deficiencies related to fundamental data accuracy,elevation and slope classification,and suitability class judgment.Empirical application of these methods is also hindered by excessive evaluation indicators,data acquisition difficulties,and limited applicability to high altitude regions.To address these issues,this paper proposes a technical evaluation framework for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP)that employs selected key parameters varying with elevation and slope to establish grid-scale evaluation models for construction land suitability(CLS)and arable land suitability(ALS).A generalized algorithm is then proposed for key parameters such as air density,air temperature,slope suitability for construction,and soil erosion resistance of sloping arable land.Empirical research is conducted using Milin County in southeast Xizang as a case study,with interval measurements of 100 m in elevation and 1°in slope.The evaluation model is tested using grid accuracies of 30 m,50 m,100 m,250 m,500 m,and 1000 m.The results reveal that:Firstly,the CLS and ALS can be categorized into five classes:highly suitable,suitable,moderately suitable,marginally suitable,and unsuitable,with varying area ratios under different grid accuracies.Secondly,existing construction lands in Milin County are mainly distributed in suitable,highly suitable,and moderately suitable CLS classes,accounting for over 94%of the total area studied under different grid accuracies.While arable land is mainly distributed in suitable,highly suitable,and moderately suitable ALS classes,accounting for over 96%.Thirdly,the empirical research in Milin County indicates that the evaluation method,quantitative model,and parameters algorithm for evaluating human activity suitability of land resources on the QTP are feasible and applicable,with a recommended grid accuracy within 100 m and a maximum of 250 m.Fourthly,the paper establishes a correspondence between land suitability(including construction land and arable land)and topographic factors(elevation and slope)that can be applied to the QTP.Finally,some professional defects in the evaluation methods of available land resources in Major Function Zoning and“Double Evaluations”of Territorial Spatial Planning in China when applied to the QTP are identified.
基金Under the auspices of National Key R&D Program of China(No.2021YFD1500104-4)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42171407,42077242)+1 种基金Natural Science Foundation of Jilin Province(No.20210101098JC)Special Investigation on Basic Science and Technology Resources(No.2021FY100406)。
文摘Cultivated land is an important natural resource to ensure food,ecological and economic security.The cultivated land quality evaluation(CQE)is greatly significant for protecting and managing cultivated land.In this study,320 counties in the black soil region of Northeast China(BSRNC)represent the research units used to construct the CQE system measuring the soil properties(SP),cultivated land productivity(CLP),ecological environment(EE)and social economy(SE).The total of 19 factors were selected to calculate the integrated fertility index(IFI)and divided into grades.Simultaneously,we used the coupling coordination degree model to comprehensively analyze the spatial pattern of the cultivated land quality(CLQ)in the BSRNC,and use the structural equation model(SEM)to analyze the driving mechanism.The results show the following:1)The CLQ of 262 counties in the BSRNC is in a state of coupling and coordination,and the coupling and coordination degree presents a spatial distribution pattern of‘high in the southwest and northeast,low in the northwest and southeast’.The coordinated development degree of 271 counties is between 0.4 and 0.6,which is in a transitional state between coordination and disorder.2)The CLQ in the BSRNC is generally good,with an average grade of 3.High-quality cultivated land accounts for 58.45%of all counties,middle-and upper-quality cultivated land accounts for 27.05%,and poor-quality cultivated land accounts for 14.49%.3)The SEM analysis shows that the SP,CLP,EE,and SE all influence the CLQ.Among them,the SP has the largest driving force on the CLQ,while the SE has the smallest driving force on it.The results confirm that the main factors affecting the evaluation results are crop productivity level,normalized difference vegetation index,ratio vegetation index,difference vegetation index,and organic carbon content.When implementing protection measures in counties with a low CLQ,considering a balanced coordination of multiple systems and reasonably controlling the quality degradation are important.This study provides the current situation and driving factors of the CLQ in the BSRNC and will play an important role in black soil governance and utilization.
文摘Any computer system with known vulnerabilities can be presented using attack graphs. An attacker generally has a mission to reach a goal state that he expects to achieve. Expected Path Length (EPL) [1] in the context of an attack graph describes the length or number of steps that the attacker has to take in achieving the goal state. However, EPL varies and it is based on the “state of vulnerabilities” [2] [3] in a given computer system. Any vulnerability throughout its life cycle passes through several stages that we identify as “states of the vulnerability life cycle” [2] [3]. In our previous studies we have developed mathematical models using Markovian theory to estimate the probability of a given vulnerability being in a particular state of its life cycle. There, we have considered a typical model of a computer network system with two computers subject to three vulnerabilities, and developed a method driven by an algorithm to estimate the EPL of this network system as a function of time. This approach is important because it allows us to monitor a computer system during the process of being exploited. Proposed non-homogeneous model in this study estimates the behavior of the EPL as a function of time and therefore act as an index of the risk associated with the network system getting exploited.
文摘An objective and quantitative evaluation method on land environmental quality for agricultural purpose in a county range is studied in this paper. The method takes into account the quantity of heat, precipitation, meteorological disaster and soil fertility, which have close relationship to the potential productivity of land and can be expressed conveniently and accurately by taking Kai County as an example. Besides comprehensive grading assessment, assessment with Hilbert Space distance coefficiency and comprehensive judgement by fuzzy sets theory, the assessment factors are expanded to 18 parameters, and fuzzy dominance matrix and fuzzy clustering methods are adopted for regional comprehensive identification of agriculture-use land. Among these methods, each benefits from association with the other. In this paper, an all-round and objective new way for understanding of land environmental quality is put forward.
文摘Bayesian network has a powerful ability/or reasoning and semantic representation, which combined with qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, with prior knowledge and observed data, and provides an effective way to deal with prediction, classification and clustering. Firstly, this paper presented an overview of Bayesian network and its characteristics, and discussed how to learn a Bayesian net- work structure from given data, and then constructed a Bayesian network model for land resource evaluation with expert knowledge and the dataset. The experimental results based on the test dataset are that evaluation accuracy is 87.5%, and Kappa index is 0. 826. All these prove the method is feasible and efficient, and indicate that Bayesian network is a promising approach for land resource evaluation.
基金funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research(BMBF)through the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use(WASCAL).
文摘Under climate and land use changes,water cycle is expected to be intensified.This will likely result in frequent hydrometeorological extremes events such as droughts and floods,and affect the water balance components.A distributed model(WaSiM)was calibrated and validated to evaluate water resources and flood hazard in the Zou catchment,Benin,for the period 1991–2009.The model was calibrated and validated at a threshold of 120 m3/s and its performance in simulating lower discharge was evaluated.The results show that the model was able to satisfactory simulate streamflow using different thresholds with the Kling and Gupta efficiency(KGE)between 0.5 and 0.85.The model performance decreases with increasing discharge threshold.The overall water balance predicted by the model is consistent with the hydroclimatic condition of the basin.The runoff coefficient varies between 15%and 18%(11%and 14%respectively)of the total annual rainfall during the calibration(validation)period.By considering the discharge above the threshold of 120 m3/s the model performances were acceptable with regards to the uncertainties in discharge measurement mainly in peak discharge.Hence,the model is able to reproduce satisfactorily the hydrological processes in the study area and could be used for impact assessment.
文摘准确估算陆地生态系统呼吸(Ecosystem respiration,RE)对全球陆地生态系统碳收支研究具有重要意义.模型模拟是估算陆地RE变化的一种常用手段.然而目前陆地生态系统过程模型的RE模拟尚未得到充分验证.基于耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5,CMIP5)的通用陆面模型(Community land model,CLM)RE模拟结果和全球通量网(FLUXNET)66个站点的涡度相关通量观测数据(277条站点年数据)评估CLM模型对RE的模拟效果.结果表明:(1)在空间尺度上,CLM低估了高纬度站点RE,高估了低纬度站点RE,但高纬度低估量更大导致空间格局整体低估(相对误差为-3.56%).(2)在时间尺度上,CLM模型基本捕捉了RE的年际和季节变化,相关系数分别为0.60(P < 0.001)和0.63(P < 0.001);CLM低估年尺度和月尺度的RE(以C计),绝对误差分别是-182.21 g m-2 a-1、-120.16 g m-2 mon-1,相对误差分别是-17.84%、-10.60%.(3)CLM模型对不同植被功能型的RE模拟效果不同,由优及差依次为混交林、常绿针叶林、草地、农田、落叶阔叶林、常绿阔叶林.本研究在时空尺度上量化了CLM模型的生态系统呼吸模拟误差,并分析了土壤呼吸Q10和MRbase参数以及土壤碳库模拟等因素的影响,可为CLM模型的生态系统呼吸模块参数优化提供依据,进而提升其模拟精度.
基金jointly funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(GrantNo40775019)Desert Meteorology Science Foundation of China(Grant NoSqj2009012)Project of Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology(Xinjiang University)Ministry of Education(Grant NoXJDX0206-2009-08)
文摘Improving and validating land surface models based on integrated observations in deserts is one of the challenges in land modeling. Particularly, key parameters and parameterization schemes in desert regions need to be evaluated in-situ to improve the models. In this study, we calibrated the land-surface key parameters and evaluated several formulations or schemes for thermal roughness length （z 0h ） in the common land model （CoLM）. Our parameter calibration and scheme evaluation were based on the observed data during a torrid summer （29 July to 11 September 2009） over the Taklimakan Desert hinterland. First, the importance of the key parameters in the experiment was evaluated based on their physics principles and the significance of these key parameters were further validated using sensitivity test. Second, difference schemes （or physics-based formulas） of z 0h were adopted to simulate the variations of energy-related variables （e.g., sensible heat flux and surface skin temperature） and the simulated variations were then compared with the observed data. Third, the z 0h scheme that performed best （i.e., Y07） was then selected to replace the defaulted one （i.e., Z98）; the revised scheme and the superiority of Y07 over Z98 was further demonstrated by comparing the simulated results with the observed data. Admittedly, the revised model did a relatively poor job of simulating the diurnal variations of surface soil heat flux, and nighttime soil temperature was also underestimated, calling for further improvement of the model for desert regions.
基金Supported by the Knowledge Innovation Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences (XMXX280722)China International Science and Technology Cooperation Project (0819)+1 种基金National Program on Key Basic Research Project (2010CB428800)Wong K C Education Foundation, Hong Kong
文摘The method to estimate NSSR （net surface shortwave radiation） from LST （land surface temperature） in regional scale is discussed. First, an elliptical model between the time series of normalized LST and NSSR was developed using the daily evolution of LST and NSSR. Second, time series of LST and NSSR were simulated by common land model （CoLM） and were proved to be of high accuracy. On the basis of these, a non-linear least square ellipse fitting using the genetic algorithm method was used to fit the normalized LST and NSSR. Finally, LST was inverted using MODIS （moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer） data with the split-window algorithm, and the regional NSSR was then estimated with LST and an elliptical model. The validation result shows that the derived average NSSR of 50×50 pixels of MODIS data was quite close to the observed data, and the distribution was reasonable, which indicates that the proposed method was capable of estimating NSSR on a regional scale.
文摘The performance evaluation of automatic carrier landing system(ACLS)is an important part in the field of carrier aircraft landing control.Combining grey analytic hierarchy theory and data normalization theory,an improved grey analytic hierarchy method is introduced to evaluate the performance of ACLS.A complete performance evaluation indicators system of ACLS is established,and the definition and calculation formula of each indicator are provided.The grey analytic hierarchy model is modified to improve the real-time performance of the algorithm,where traditional expert scoring sampling matrix is substituted by an indicator normalized sample matrix.Taking a certain ACLS as an example,the experimental simulation is carried out,and the simulation results verify the reliability and the accuracy of the improved grey analytic hierarchy method.
