A grey-box modelling framework was developed for the estimation of cut point temperature of a crude distillation unit(CDU)under uncertainty in crude composition and process conditions.First principle(FP)model of CDU w...A grey-box modelling framework was developed for the estimation of cut point temperature of a crude distillation unit(CDU)under uncertainty in crude composition and process conditions.First principle(FP)model of CDU was developed for Pakistani crudes from Zamzama and Kunnar fields.A hybrid methodology based on the integration of Taguchi method and genetic algorithm(GA)was employed to estimate the optimal cut point temperature for various sets of process variables.Optimised datasets were utilised to develop an artificial neural networks(ANN)model for the prediction of optimum values of cut points.The ANN model was then used to replace the hybrid framework of the Taguchi method and the GA.The integration of the ANN and FP model makes it a grey-box(GB)model.For the case of Zamama crude,the GB model helped in the decrease of up to 38.93%in energy required per kilo barrel of diesel and an 8.2%increase in diesel production compared to the stand-alone FP model under uncertainty.Similarly,for Kunnar crude,up to 18.87%decrease in energy required per kilo barrel of diesel and a 33.96%increase in diesel production was observed in comparison to the stand-alone FP model.展开更多
Based on the traditional Nielsen model,a unified failure model on the uniformly reinforced concrete box section members under combined forces was introduced by Luo and Liu.One of their contributions is adjustment of t...Based on the traditional Nielsen model,a unified failure model on the uniformly reinforced concrete box section members under combined forces was introduced by Luo and Liu.One of their contributions is adjustment of the shear carrying capacity of concrete at the member failure surface.In the unified failure model,the comparison with the experimental results verified this adjustment.Nevertheless,it should be pointed out that the adjustment factor of shear carrying capacity at member failure surface for the reinforced concrete members in the unified failure model is a fixed adjustment constant for all experiment data,which is basically determined by curve fitting.However,the adjustment factor should vary with the normal stress at the member failure surface.In this paper,an advanced theoretical model is introduced,in which the adjustment factor of shear carrying capacity at failure surface is a variable related to the normal stress at failure surface.Furthermore,the advanced unified failure model on the uniformly reinforced concrete box section member can still be expressed in a simple form.Finally,the comparison with several groups of test data has verified that this advanced model is more accurate and feasible to be used in design.展开更多
Volatile organic compounds(VOCs)oxidation processes play a very important role in atmospheric chemistry,and the chemical reactions are expressed in various manners in chemical mechanisms.To gain an improved understand...Volatile organic compounds(VOCs)oxidation processes play a very important role in atmospheric chemistry,and the chemical reactions are expressed in various manners in chemical mechanisms.To gain an improved understanding of VOCs evolution during oxidation processes and evaluate the discrepancies of VOCs oxidation schemes among different mechanisms,we used the total VOC reactivity as a diagnostic and evaluated tool to explore the differences for six widely used chemical mechanisms.We compared the total VOC reactivity evolution under high-NO_(x)xconditions for several sets of precursors,including n-pentane,toluene,ethene,isoprene and a mixture of 57 Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations(PAMS)species in a 0-D photochemical box model.Inter-comparison of total VOC reactivity of individual precursor simulations showed discrepancies to different extent of the oxidation schemes among the studied mechanisms,which are mainly attributed to the different lumping approaches for organic species.The PAMS simulation showed smaller discrepancy than individual precursor cases in terms of total VOC reactivity.SAPRC07 and RACM2 performances are found to better match the MCM for simulation of total VOC reactivity.Evidences suggest that the performance in simulating secondary organic products,OH concentrations and NO_(x)concentrations are related to the OH reactivity discrepancies among various chemical mechanisms.Information in this study can be used in selection of chemical mechanisms to better model OH reactivity in different environments.The results in this study also provide directions to further improve the ability in modelling total VOC reactivity with the chemical mechanisms.展开更多
Tropospheric ozone is a secondary air pollutant produced in the presence of nitrogen oxides (NO_x),volatile organic compounds (VOCs),and solar radiation.In an urban environment,ground-level vehicular exhaust is the ma...Tropospheric ozone is a secondary air pollutant produced in the presence of nitrogen oxides (NO_x),volatile organic compounds (VOCs),and solar radiation.In an urban environment,ground-level vehicular exhaust is the major anthropogenic source of ozone precursors.In the cases of street canyons,pollutant dilution is weakened by the surrounding buildings that creates localized high concentration of NO_x and VOCs,and thus leads to high potential of ozone formation.By considering the major physical and chemical p...展开更多
The xanthan fermentation data in the stationary phase was analyzed using the black box and the metabolic network models. The data consistency is checked through the elemental balance in the black box model. In the met...The xanthan fermentation data in the stationary phase was analyzed using the black box and the metabolic network models. The data consistency is checked through the elemental balance in the black box model. In the metabolic network model, the metabolic flux distribution in the cell is calculated using the metabolic flux analysis method, then the maintenance coefficients is calculated.展开更多
To solve nutrient flux and budget among waters with distinct salinity difference for water-salt- nutrient budget, a traditional method is to build a stoichiometrically linked steady state model. However, the tradition...To solve nutrient flux and budget among waters with distinct salinity difference for water-salt- nutrient budget, a traditional method is to build a stoichiometrically linked steady state model. However, the traditional way cannot cope appropriately with those without distinct salinity difference that parallel to coastline or in a complex current system, as the results would be highly affected by box division in time and space, such as the Changjiang （Yangtze） River estuary （CRE） and adjacent waters （30.75°-31.75°N, 122°10′-123°20′E）. Therefore, we developed a hydrodynamic box model based on the traditional way and the regional oceanic modeling system model （ROMS）. Using data from four cruises in 2005, horizontal, vertical and boundary nutrient fluxes were calculated in the hydrodynamic box model, in which flux fields and the major controlling factors were studied. Results show that the nutrient flux varied greatly in season and space. Water flux outweighs the nutrient concentration in horizontal flux, and upwelling flux outweighs upward diffusion flux in vertical direction （upwelling flux and upward diffusion flux regions overlap largely all the year）. Vertical flux in spring and summer are much greater than that in autumn and winter. The maximum vertical flux for DIP （dissolved inorganic phosphate） occurs in summer. Additional to the fluxes of the ChanNiang River discharge, coastal currents, the Taiwan Warm Current, and the upwelling, nutrient flux inflow from the southern Yellow Sea and outflow southward are found crucial to nutrient budgets of the study area. Horizontal nutrient flux is controlled by physical dilution and confined to coastal waters with a little into the open seas. The study area acts as a conveyer transferring nutrients from the Yellow Sea to the East China Sea in the whole year. In addition, vertical nutrient flux in spring and summer is a main source of DIP. Therefore, the hydrodynamic ROMS-based box model is superior to the traditional one in estimating nutrient fluxes in a complicated hydrodynamic current system and provides a modified box model approach to material flux research.展开更多
Sediment collapse and subsequent lateral downslope migration play important roles in shaping the habitats and regulating sedimentary organic carbon(SOC)cycling in hadal trenches.In this study,three sediment cores were...Sediment collapse and subsequent lateral downslope migration play important roles in shaping the habitats and regulating sedimentary organic carbon(SOC)cycling in hadal trenches.In this study,three sediment cores were collected using a human-occupied vehicle across the axis of the southern Yap Trench(SYT).The total organic carbon(TOC)and total nitrogen(TN)contents,δ13C,radiocarbon ages,specific surface areas,and grain size compositions of sediments from three cores were measured.We explored the influence of the lateral downslope transport on the dispersal of the sediments and established a tentative box model for the SOC balance.In the SYT,the surface TOC content decreased with water depth and was decoupled by the funneling effect of the V-shaped hadal trench.However,the sedimentation(0.0025 cm/a)and SOC accumulation rates(∼0.038 g/(m^(2)·a)(in terms of OC))were approximately 50%higher in the deeper hadal region than in the abyssal region(0.0016 cm/a and∼0.026 g/(m^(2)·a)(in terms of OC),respectively),indicating the occurrence of lateral downslope transport.The fluctuating variations in the prokaryotic abundances and the SOC accumulation rate suggest the periodic input of surficial sediments from the shallow region.The similar average TOC(0.31%–0.38%),TN(0.06%–0.07%)contents,and SOC compositions(terrestrial OC(11%–18%),marine phytoplanktonic OC(45%–53%),and microbial OC(32%–44%))of the three sites indicate that the lateral downslope transport has a significant mixing effect on the SOC composition.The output fluxes of the laterally transported SOC(0.44–0.56 g/(m^(2)·a)(in terms of OC))contributed approximately(47%–73%)of the total SOC input,and this proportion increased with water depth.The results of this study demonstrate the importance of lateral downslope transport in the spatial distribution and development of biomes.展开更多
A dynamic box model was applied to study the characteristics of biogeochemical cycling of PO<sub>4</sub>-P,NO<sub>3</sub>-N,AOU,POC and PON in the southern Taiwan Strait region based on field d...A dynamic box model was applied to study the characteristics of biogeochemical cycling of PO<sub>4</sub>-P,NO<sub>3</sub>-N,AOU,POC and PON in the southern Taiwan Strait region based on field data of the"Minnan Taiwan Bank Fishing Ground Upwelling Ecosystem Study" during the period of Dec.1987-Nov.1988.According to the unique hydrological and topographical features of the region,six boxesand three layers were considered in the model.The variation rates and fluxes of elements induced by hor-izontal current,upwelling,by diffusion,sinking of particles and biogeochemical processes were estimatedrespectively.Results further confirmed that upwellings had important effects in this region.Thenearshore upwelling areas had net input fluxes of nutrients brought by upwelling water,also had high de-pletion rates of nutrients and production rates of particulate organic matter and dissolved oxygen.Theabnormal net production of nutrients in the middle layer（10-30m） indicated the important role of bacte-ria in this high production region.展开更多
In this study, a dynamic modeling method for foil-like underwater vehicles is introduced and experimentally verified in different sea tests of the Hadal ARV. The dumping force of a foil-like underwater vehicle is sens...In this study, a dynamic modeling method for foil-like underwater vehicles is introduced and experimentally verified in different sea tests of the Hadal ARV. The dumping force of a foil-like underwater vehicle is sensitive to swing motion. Some foil-like underwater vehicles swing periodically when performing a free-fall dive task in experiments. Models using conventional modeling methods yield solutions with asymptotic stability, which cannot simulate the self-sustained swing motion. By improving the ridge regression optimization algorithm, a grey-box modeling method based on 378 viscous drag coefficients using the Taylor series expansion is proposed in this study. The method is optimized for over-fitting and convergence problems caused by large parameter matrices. Instead of the PMM test data, the unsteady computational fluid dynamics calculation results are used in modeling. The obtained model can better simulate the swing motion of the underwater vehicle. Simulation and experimental results show a good consistency in free-fall tests during sea trials, as well as a prediction of the dive speed in the swing state.展开更多
In this paper, the Box-Jenkins modelling procedure is used to determine an ARIMA model and go further to forecasting. We consider data of Malaria cases from Ministry of Health (Kabwe District)-Zambia for the period, 2...In this paper, the Box-Jenkins modelling procedure is used to determine an ARIMA model and go further to forecasting. We consider data of Malaria cases from Ministry of Health (Kabwe District)-Zambia for the period, 2009 to 2013 for age 1 to under 5 years. The model-building process involves three steps: tentative identification of a model from the ARIMA class, estimation of parameters in the identified model, and diagnostic checks. Results show that an appropriate model is simply an ARIMA (1, 0, 0) due to the fact that, the ACF has an exponential decay and the PACF has a spike at lag 1 which is an indication of the said model. The forecasted Malaria cases for January and February, 2014 are 220 and 265, respectively.展开更多
开发有效的风机电磁暂态模型是进行海上风电并网研究的基础。根据不同生产厂家所提供的直驱风机模型,提出了一种基于厂家黑盒模型的直驱风机电磁暂态建模方法。利用厂家所提供的模型测试数据解析风机的故障响应特性,推导了不同厂家在电...开发有效的风机电磁暂态模型是进行海上风电并网研究的基础。根据不同生产厂家所提供的直驱风机模型,提出了一种基于厂家黑盒模型的直驱风机电磁暂态建模方法。利用厂家所提供的模型测试数据解析风机的故障响应特性,推导了不同厂家在电压故障下有功和无功功率响应表达式,包括故障期间的穿越控制过程及不同过程间的暂态切换策略。提出了加权平均压降的风电场等值方法,采用自主研发的全电磁暂态仿真软件(power system model,PSModel)对我国广东某海上风电场进行全电磁暂态建模。根据稳态潮流及暂态特性结果验证了模型可通过系统测试,且有效实现了海上风电场的全电磁暂态建模,从而为该风场接入大电网后的安全稳定分析提供了研究基础。展开更多
In this paper, Black Box approach is presented for behavioral modeling of a non linear power amplifier with memory effects. Large signal parameters of a Motorola LDMOS power amplifier driven by a WCDMA signal were ext...In this paper, Black Box approach is presented for behavioral modeling of a non linear power amplifier with memory effects. Large signal parameters of a Motorola LDMOS power amplifier driven by a WCDMA signal were extracted while taking into considerations the power amplifier’s bandwidth. The proposed model was validated based on the simulated data. Some validation results are presented both in the time and frequency domains, using WCDMA signal.展开更多
Concept of black box, condition of modeling and control methods were introduced. Taking high purity silica brick as an example, the silica brick featured with high purity, low porosity, low true density and high stren...Concept of black box, condition of modeling and control methods were introduced. Taking high purity silica brick as an example, the silica brick featured with high purity, low porosity, low true density and high strength was developed through problem analysis, test design, modeling and optimization. Using information technology to upgrade refractories industry was discussed.展开更多
In this paper, the Box-Jenkins modelling procedure is used to determine an ARIMA model and go further to forecasting. The mobile cellular subscription data for the study were taken from the administrative data submitt...In this paper, the Box-Jenkins modelling procedure is used to determine an ARIMA model and go further to forecasting. The mobile cellular subscription data for the study were taken from the administrative data submitted to the Zambia Information and Communications Technology Authority (ZICTA) as quarterly returns by all three mobile network operators Airtel Zambia, MTN Zambia and Zamtel. The time series of annual figures for mobile cellular subscription for all mobile network operators is from 2000 to 2014 and has a total of 15 observations. Results show that the ARIMA (1, 2, 1) is an adequate model which best fits the mobile cellular subscription time series and is therefore suitable for forecasting subscription. The model predicts a gradual rise in mobile cellular subscription in the next 5 years, culminating to about 9.0% cumulative increase in 2019.展开更多
In order to solve the problem of difficult modeling and identification caused by time-variable parameters,multiple inputs and outputs and unstable open loop,a subsystem model-based close-loop grey-box identification m...In order to solve the problem of difficult modeling and identification caused by time-variable parameters,multiple inputs and outputs and unstable open loop,a subsystem model-based close-loop grey-box identification method was put forward when consider the main coupling effects of hydraulic Stewart platform.Firstly,the whole system is divided into three TITO(Two Input Two Output) subsystems according to the characteristics of the pseudo-mass matrix,hence transfer function matrix model of the subsystem can also be found.Secondly,since the Stewart platform is unstable,the close-loop transfer model of the subsystem is derived under the proportional controllers.The inverse M serial is adopted as the identification signal to get the experimental data.All parameters of the subsystem are determined in close-loop indirect identification by PEM(Prediction Error Method).Finally,a case study validates the correctness and effectiveness of the subsystem model-based close-loop grey-box identification method for hydraulic Stewart platform.展开更多
The Japanese medical costs for cataract treatments reached 270 billion yen in fiscal year 2012. Since the length of stay (LOS) in hospital is much longer than other major countries, controlling the medical costs by re...The Japanese medical costs for cataract treatments reached 270 billion yen in fiscal year 2012. Since the length of stay (LOS) in hospital is much longer than other major countries, controlling the medical costs by reducing LOS becomes an important issue in Japan. In this paper, we evaluated the effects of the 2010 revision of the Japanese medical payment system (DPC/PDPS) on LOS for cataract operations. The Box-Cox transformation model, Nawata’s estimators and Hausman tests were used in the analysis. To evaluate the effects, we analyzed a dataset obtained from 34 DPC hospitals (Hp1-34) where one-eye cataract operations were performed both before (April 2008-March 2010) and after (April 2010-March 2012) the 2010 revision and there were more than 500 patients. The dataset contained information from 32,593 patients. We did not admit the effect of the 2010 revision in this study, and there were large differences LOS among hospitals, even after removing the influences of factors such as patient characteristics and types of principal diseases.展开更多
基金Higher Education Commission,Pakistan,under the National Research Program for Universities Project,Grant/Award Number:NBU-FPEJ-2024-1243-02。
文摘A grey-box modelling framework was developed for the estimation of cut point temperature of a crude distillation unit(CDU)under uncertainty in crude composition and process conditions.First principle(FP)model of CDU was developed for Pakistani crudes from Zamzama and Kunnar fields.A hybrid methodology based on the integration of Taguchi method and genetic algorithm(GA)was employed to estimate the optimal cut point temperature for various sets of process variables.Optimised datasets were utilised to develop an artificial neural networks(ANN)model for the prediction of optimum values of cut points.The ANN model was then used to replace the hybrid framework of the Taguchi method and the GA.The integration of the ANN and FP model makes it a grey-box(GB)model.For the case of Zamama crude,the GB model helped in the decrease of up to 38.93%in energy required per kilo barrel of diesel and an 8.2%increase in diesel production compared to the stand-alone FP model under uncertainty.Similarly,for Kunnar crude,up to 18.87%decrease in energy required per kilo barrel of diesel and a 33.96%increase in diesel production was observed in comparison to the stand-alone FP model.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.50378054)the National Basic Research Program(973)of China(No.2002CB412709)
文摘Based on the traditional Nielsen model,a unified failure model on the uniformly reinforced concrete box section members under combined forces was introduced by Luo and Liu.One of their contributions is adjustment of the shear carrying capacity of concrete at the member failure surface.In the unified failure model,the comparison with the experimental results verified this adjustment.Nevertheless,it should be pointed out that the adjustment factor of shear carrying capacity at member failure surface for the reinforced concrete members in the unified failure model is a fixed adjustment constant for all experiment data,which is basically determined by curve fitting.However,the adjustment factor should vary with the normal stress at the member failure surface.In this paper,an advanced theoretical model is introduced,in which the adjustment factor of shear carrying capacity at failure surface is a variable related to the normal stress at failure surface.Furthermore,the advanced unified failure model on the uniformly reinforced concrete box section member can still be expressed in a simple form.Finally,the comparison with several groups of test data has verified that this advanced model is more accurate and feasible to be used in design.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41877302)Guangdong Natural Science Funds for Distinguished Young Scholar(No.2018B030306037)+2 种基金the National Key R&D Plan of China(No.2019YFE0106300)Guangdong Innovative and Entrepreneurial Research Team Program(No.2016ZT06N263)supported by the Special Fund Project for Science and Technology Innovation Strategy of Guangdong Province(No.2019B121205004)
文摘Volatile organic compounds(VOCs)oxidation processes play a very important role in atmospheric chemistry,and the chemical reactions are expressed in various manners in chemical mechanisms.To gain an improved understanding of VOCs evolution during oxidation processes and evaluate the discrepancies of VOCs oxidation schemes among different mechanisms,we used the total VOC reactivity as a diagnostic and evaluated tool to explore the differences for six widely used chemical mechanisms.We compared the total VOC reactivity evolution under high-NO_(x)xconditions for several sets of precursors,including n-pentane,toluene,ethene,isoprene and a mixture of 57 Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations(PAMS)species in a 0-D photochemical box model.Inter-comparison of total VOC reactivity of individual precursor simulations showed discrepancies to different extent of the oxidation schemes among the studied mechanisms,which are mainly attributed to the different lumping approaches for organic species.The PAMS simulation showed smaller discrepancy than individual precursor cases in terms of total VOC reactivity.SAPRC07 and RACM2 performances are found to better match the MCM for simulation of total VOC reactivity.Evidences suggest that the performance in simulating secondary organic products,OH concentrations and NO_(x)concentrations are related to the OH reactivity discrepancies among various chemical mechanisms.Information in this study can be used in selection of chemical mechanisms to better model OH reactivity in different environments.The results in this study also provide directions to further improve the ability in modelling total VOC reactivity with the chemical mechanisms.
文摘Tropospheric ozone is a secondary air pollutant produced in the presence of nitrogen oxides (NO_x),volatile organic compounds (VOCs),and solar radiation.In an urban environment,ground-level vehicular exhaust is the major anthropogenic source of ozone precursors.In the cases of street canyons,pollutant dilution is weakened by the surrounding buildings that creates localized high concentration of NO_x and VOCs,and thus leads to high potential of ozone formation.By considering the major physical and chemical p...
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.29776035).
文摘The xanthan fermentation data in the stationary phase was analyzed using the black box and the metabolic network models. The data consistency is checked through the elemental balance in the black box model. In the metabolic network model, the metabolic flux distribution in the cell is calculated using the metabolic flux analysis method, then the maintenance coefficients is calculated.
基金Supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China(Nos.41121064,41276116)the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(No.2010CB428706)
文摘To solve nutrient flux and budget among waters with distinct salinity difference for water-salt- nutrient budget, a traditional method is to build a stoichiometrically linked steady state model. However, the traditional way cannot cope appropriately with those without distinct salinity difference that parallel to coastline or in a complex current system, as the results would be highly affected by box division in time and space, such as the Changjiang （Yangtze） River estuary （CRE） and adjacent waters （30.75°-31.75°N, 122°10′-123°20′E）. Therefore, we developed a hydrodynamic box model based on the traditional way and the regional oceanic modeling system model （ROMS）. Using data from four cruises in 2005, horizontal, vertical and boundary nutrient fluxes were calculated in the hydrodynamic box model, in which flux fields and the major controlling factors were studied. Results show that the nutrient flux varied greatly in season and space. Water flux outweighs the nutrient concentration in horizontal flux, and upwelling flux outweighs upward diffusion flux in vertical direction （upwelling flux and upward diffusion flux regions overlap largely all the year）. Vertical flux in spring and summer are much greater than that in autumn and winter. The maximum vertical flux for DIP （dissolved inorganic phosphate） occurs in summer. Additional to the fluxes of the ChanNiang River discharge, coastal currents, the Taiwan Warm Current, and the upwelling, nutrient flux inflow from the southern Yellow Sea and outflow southward are found crucial to nutrient budgets of the study area. Horizontal nutrient flux is controlled by physical dilution and confined to coastal waters with a little into the open seas. The study area acts as a conveyer transferring nutrients from the Yellow Sea to the East China Sea in the whole year. In addition, vertical nutrient flux in spring and summer is a main source of DIP. Therefore, the hydrodynamic ROMS-based box model is superior to the traditional one in estimating nutrient fluxes in a complicated hydrodynamic current system and provides a modified box model approach to material flux research.
基金The Scientific Research Fund of the Second Institute of Oceanography under contract Nos JG2011 and JG1516the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.41606090the National Basic Research Program(973 Program)of China under contract No.2015CB755904.
文摘Sediment collapse and subsequent lateral downslope migration play important roles in shaping the habitats and regulating sedimentary organic carbon(SOC)cycling in hadal trenches.In this study,three sediment cores were collected using a human-occupied vehicle across the axis of the southern Yap Trench(SYT).The total organic carbon(TOC)and total nitrogen(TN)contents,δ13C,radiocarbon ages,specific surface areas,and grain size compositions of sediments from three cores were measured.We explored the influence of the lateral downslope transport on the dispersal of the sediments and established a tentative box model for the SOC balance.In the SYT,the surface TOC content decreased with water depth and was decoupled by the funneling effect of the V-shaped hadal trench.However,the sedimentation(0.0025 cm/a)and SOC accumulation rates(∼0.038 g/(m^(2)·a)(in terms of OC))were approximately 50%higher in the deeper hadal region than in the abyssal region(0.0016 cm/a and∼0.026 g/(m^(2)·a)(in terms of OC),respectively),indicating the occurrence of lateral downslope transport.The fluctuating variations in the prokaryotic abundances and the SOC accumulation rate suggest the periodic input of surficial sediments from the shallow region.The similar average TOC(0.31%–0.38%),TN(0.06%–0.07%)contents,and SOC compositions(terrestrial OC(11%–18%),marine phytoplanktonic OC(45%–53%),and microbial OC(32%–44%))of the three sites indicate that the lateral downslope transport has a significant mixing effect on the SOC composition.The output fluxes of the laterally transported SOC(0.44–0.56 g/(m^(2)·a)(in terms of OC))contributed approximately(47%–73%)of the total SOC input,and this proportion increased with water depth.The results of this study demonstrate the importance of lateral downslope transport in the spatial distribution and development of biomes.
文摘A dynamic box model was applied to study the characteristics of biogeochemical cycling of PO<sub>4</sub>-P,NO<sub>3</sub>-N,AOU,POC and PON in the southern Taiwan Strait region based on field data of the"Minnan Taiwan Bank Fishing Ground Upwelling Ecosystem Study" during the period of Dec.1987-Nov.1988.According to the unique hydrological and topographical features of the region,six boxesand three layers were considered in the model.The variation rates and fluxes of elements induced by hor-izontal current,upwelling,by diffusion,sinking of particles and biogeochemical processes were estimatedrespectively.Results further confirmed that upwellings had important effects in this region.Thenearshore upwelling areas had net input fluxes of nutrients brought by upwelling water,also had high de-pletion rates of nutrients and production rates of particulate organic matter and dissolved oxygen.Theabnormal net production of nutrients in the middle layer（10-30m） indicated the important role of bacte-ria in this high production region.
基金financially supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2016YFC0300802)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDB06050200)
文摘In this study, a dynamic modeling method for foil-like underwater vehicles is introduced and experimentally verified in different sea tests of the Hadal ARV. The dumping force of a foil-like underwater vehicle is sensitive to swing motion. Some foil-like underwater vehicles swing periodically when performing a free-fall dive task in experiments. Models using conventional modeling methods yield solutions with asymptotic stability, which cannot simulate the self-sustained swing motion. By improving the ridge regression optimization algorithm, a grey-box modeling method based on 378 viscous drag coefficients using the Taylor series expansion is proposed in this study. The method is optimized for over-fitting and convergence problems caused by large parameter matrices. Instead of the PMM test data, the unsteady computational fluid dynamics calculation results are used in modeling. The obtained model can better simulate the swing motion of the underwater vehicle. Simulation and experimental results show a good consistency in free-fall tests during sea trials, as well as a prediction of the dive speed in the swing state.
文摘In this paper, the Box-Jenkins modelling procedure is used to determine an ARIMA model and go further to forecasting. We consider data of Malaria cases from Ministry of Health (Kabwe District)-Zambia for the period, 2009 to 2013 for age 1 to under 5 years. The model-building process involves three steps: tentative identification of a model from the ARIMA class, estimation of parameters in the identified model, and diagnostic checks. Results show that an appropriate model is simply an ARIMA (1, 0, 0) due to the fact that, the ACF has an exponential decay and the PACF has a spike at lag 1 which is an indication of the said model. The forecasted Malaria cases for January and February, 2014 are 220 and 265, respectively.
文摘开发有效的风机电磁暂态模型是进行海上风电并网研究的基础。根据不同生产厂家所提供的直驱风机模型,提出了一种基于厂家黑盒模型的直驱风机电磁暂态建模方法。利用厂家所提供的模型测试数据解析风机的故障响应特性,推导了不同厂家在电压故障下有功和无功功率响应表达式,包括故障期间的穿越控制过程及不同过程间的暂态切换策略。提出了加权平均压降的风电场等值方法,采用自主研发的全电磁暂态仿真软件(power system model,PSModel)对我国广东某海上风电场进行全电磁暂态建模。根据稳态潮流及暂态特性结果验证了模型可通过系统测试,且有效实现了海上风电场的全电磁暂态建模,从而为该风场接入大电网后的安全稳定分析提供了研究基础。
文摘In this paper, Black Box approach is presented for behavioral modeling of a non linear power amplifier with memory effects. Large signal parameters of a Motorola LDMOS power amplifier driven by a WCDMA signal were extracted while taking into considerations the power amplifier’s bandwidth. The proposed model was validated based on the simulated data. Some validation results are presented both in the time and frequency domains, using WCDMA signal.
基金This paper is funded by National 11th ＂ Five-Year-Plan＂ Major Supporting Projects for Scientific and Technology. Its item name is ＂Green Manufacturing Processes and Equipment＂ with subject number of 2006BAF02A26.
文摘Concept of black box, condition of modeling and control methods were introduced. Taking high purity silica brick as an example, the silica brick featured with high purity, low porosity, low true density and high strength was developed through problem analysis, test design, modeling and optimization. Using information technology to upgrade refractories industry was discussed.
文摘In this paper, the Box-Jenkins modelling procedure is used to determine an ARIMA model and go further to forecasting. The mobile cellular subscription data for the study were taken from the administrative data submitted to the Zambia Information and Communications Technology Authority (ZICTA) as quarterly returns by all three mobile network operators Airtel Zambia, MTN Zambia and Zamtel. The time series of annual figures for mobile cellular subscription for all mobile network operators is from 2000 to 2014 and has a total of 15 observations. Results show that the ARIMA (1, 2, 1) is an adequate model which best fits the mobile cellular subscription time series and is therefore suitable for forecasting subscription. The model predicts a gradual rise in mobile cellular subscription in the next 5 years, culminating to about 9.0% cumulative increase in 2019.
文摘In order to solve the problem of difficult modeling and identification caused by time-variable parameters,multiple inputs and outputs and unstable open loop,a subsystem model-based close-loop grey-box identification method was put forward when consider the main coupling effects of hydraulic Stewart platform.Firstly,the whole system is divided into three TITO(Two Input Two Output) subsystems according to the characteristics of the pseudo-mass matrix,hence transfer function matrix model of the subsystem can also be found.Secondly,since the Stewart platform is unstable,the close-loop transfer model of the subsystem is derived under the proportional controllers.The inverse M serial is adopted as the identification signal to get the experimental data.All parameters of the subsystem are determined in close-loop indirect identification by PEM(Prediction Error Method).Finally,a case study validates the correctness and effectiveness of the subsystem model-based close-loop grey-box identification method for hydraulic Stewart platform.
文摘The Japanese medical costs for cataract treatments reached 270 billion yen in fiscal year 2012. Since the length of stay (LOS) in hospital is much longer than other major countries, controlling the medical costs by reducing LOS becomes an important issue in Japan. In this paper, we evaluated the effects of the 2010 revision of the Japanese medical payment system (DPC/PDPS) on LOS for cataract operations. The Box-Cox transformation model, Nawata’s estimators and Hausman tests were used in the analysis. To evaluate the effects, we analyzed a dataset obtained from 34 DPC hospitals (Hp1-34) where one-eye cataract operations were performed both before (April 2008-March 2010) and after (April 2010-March 2012) the 2010 revision and there were more than 500 patients. The dataset contained information from 32,593 patients. We did not admit the effect of the 2010 revision in this study, and there were large differences LOS among hospitals, even after removing the influences of factors such as patient characteristics and types of principal diseases.
