Introduction:Nipah virus(NiV)infection is a highly fatal zoonosis lacking specific vaccines or treatments,posing a persistent threat to global health security;its re-emergence in India in early 2026 has further amplif...Introduction:Nipah virus(NiV)infection is a highly fatal zoonosis lacking specific vaccines or treatments,posing a persistent threat to global health security;its re-emergence in India in early 2026 has further amplified these concerns.However,the risk of NiV importation into China remains unclear.Methods:This study employed an integrated risk matrix and Borda count method,driven by multisectoral data including epidemiological parameters,civil aviation capacity,customs import trade,and geographical proximity.Importation risk was evaluated across two dimensions:likelihood and consequences.The Borda count method was subsequently utilized to rank the comprehensive risks among identified affected countries.Results:Importation risk from five countries reporting NiV outbreaks between 1999 and 2026 was evaluated by scoring and ranking both likelihood and consequences.India and Bangladesh presented moderate importation risk to China,achieving the highest Borda points among South and Southeast Asian nations.Malaysia,the Philippines,and Singapore demonstrated low importation risk.Conclusions:Countries with documented NiV outbreaks represent potential sources of importation to China,where stochastic viral entry poses a persistent threat in an increasingly interconnected world.Continuous multi-source surveillance coupled with dynamic risk modeling is therefore essential for safeguarding national biosecurity.展开更多
基金Supported by the Beijing Natural Science Foundation(grant number 7254473)the Prevention and Control of Emerging and Major Infectious Diseases-National Science and Technology Major Project(grant number 2025ZD01901600).
文摘Introduction:Nipah virus(NiV)infection is a highly fatal zoonosis lacking specific vaccines or treatments,posing a persistent threat to global health security;its re-emergence in India in early 2026 has further amplified these concerns.However,the risk of NiV importation into China remains unclear.Methods:This study employed an integrated risk matrix and Borda count method,driven by multisectoral data including epidemiological parameters,civil aviation capacity,customs import trade,and geographical proximity.Importation risk was evaluated across two dimensions:likelihood and consequences.The Borda count method was subsequently utilized to rank the comprehensive risks among identified affected countries.Results:Importation risk from five countries reporting NiV outbreaks between 1999 and 2026 was evaluated by scoring and ranking both likelihood and consequences.India and Bangladesh presented moderate importation risk to China,achieving the highest Borda points among South and Southeast Asian nations.Malaysia,the Philippines,and Singapore demonstrated low importation risk.Conclusions:Countries with documented NiV outbreaks represent potential sources of importation to China,where stochastic viral entry poses a persistent threat in an increasingly interconnected world.Continuous multi-source surveillance coupled with dynamic risk modeling is therefore essential for safeguarding national biosecurity.
