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英国A Level考试制度的演进脉络及其对我国高考改革的镜鉴
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作者 温军英 《宁波大学学报(教育科学版)》 2026年第1期122-132,共11页
A Level考试素有“英国高考”之称。其制度演进大致经历了发轫与探索、扩张与调适、回归与重塑三个阶段,其主要变革内容包括四个方面:组织形式从年终末考的线性考试模式发展为一年多考的模块化考试,再回归线性考试模式;考试评价从常模... A Level考试素有“英国高考”之称。其制度演进大致经历了发轫与探索、扩张与调适、回归与重塑三个阶段,其主要变革内容包括四个方面:组织形式从年终末考的线性考试模式发展为一年多考的模块化考试,再回归线性考试模式;考试评价从常模参照转变为标准参照,评价手段逐步优化;考试要求从注重学科深度转变为强调知识广度,再发展为追求广度和深度并重;考试内容从偏重学术性转变为普职并重,再发展为职普融通和强调基础学科。变革的动因既有来自外部的国际竞争加剧和国内政党轮替,也有来自内部的文化价值观驱动和考试选才效度追求。A Level考试制度对我国高考改革有一定启发,我国可结合国情,以基础学科为支点、职普融通为路径、多样化的考试选择为依托、预测效度为导向,开展本土化探索。 展开更多
关键词 A level 高考 考试 选科 高校招生
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Strategies of allocating root-shoot biomass in plantations and natural forests at various community stages and moisture levels
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作者 Wenjing Chen Lei Liu +3 位作者 Josep Penuelas Guoyi Zhou Langqin Hua Zhurong Wu 《Journal of Forestry Research》 2026年第2期85-99,共15页
The root-to-shoot(R/S)ratio is a critical indicator of the balance between root biomass and shoot biomass,representing the ecological strategies and adaptive responses of plants to environmental conditions.However,the... The root-to-shoot(R/S)ratio is a critical indicator of the balance between root biomass and shoot biomass,representing the ecological strategies and adaptive responses of plants to environmental conditions.However,the patterns of change in community R/S ratios during forest succession and their response to moisture levels across broad geographic gradients remains unclear.Based on forest biomass data from a national field inventory of 5,825 plots conducted across China between 2011 and 2015,this study looked into allocating biomass shoots and roots at the early,middle,and late stages of growth in plantations and succession in natural forests,and evaluated how moisture availability influences this allocation.The results revealed a significant decline in R/S ratios from early to late stages for both plantations and natural forests.Shoot and root biomass in plantations grew isometrically during the early and middle succession stages but shifted to allometric growth in the late stage,with the slope of the log-transformed shoot-root biomass relationship differing significantly across growth stages.Natural forests,in contrast,maintained isometric growth across successional stages,showing no significant variation in the slope of the log-transformed shoot-root biomass relationship.Environmental factors,particularly moisture levels,strongly influenced R/S ratios.Moisture levels significantly affected size-corrected R/S ratios,particularly in the middle stage of plantations and the early and middle stages of natural forests,supporting the hypothesis of optimal allocation.These findings suggest that in water-limited regions,forest management should prioritize drought-tolerant,deep-rooted native species,encourage mixed-species planting in the early stage,and reduce logging intensity in mature plantations.Conserving natural forests to maintain successional dynamics is essential for long-term ecological resilience.These findings emphasize the importance of balancing productivity with ecological sustainability by adapting practices to specific environments and forest types under climate change. 展开更多
关键词 Root-to-shoot ratios Biomass allocation Forest type Community stage Moisture levels Allometric scaling
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Improved expert system of rockburst intensity level prediction based on machine learning and data-driven:Supported by 1114 rockburst cases in 197 rock underground projects
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作者 PANG Hong-li GONG Feng-qiang +1 位作者 GAO Ming-zhong DAI Jin-hao 《Journal of Central South University》 2026年第1期335-356,共22页
Accurate prediction of rockburst intensity levels is crucial for ensuring the safety of deep hard rock engineering construction.This paper introduced an expert system for rockburst intensity level prediction that empl... Accurate prediction of rockburst intensity levels is crucial for ensuring the safety of deep hard rock engineering construction.This paper introduced an expert system for rockburst intensity level prediction that employs machine learning algorithms as the basis for its inference rules.The system comprises four modules:a database,a repository,an inference engine,and an interpreter.A database containing 1114 rockburst cases was used to construct 357 datasets that serve as the repository for the expert system.Additionally,19 types of machine learning algorithms were used to establish 6783 micro-models to construct cognitive rules within the inference engine.By integrating probability theory and marginal analysis,a fuzzy scoring method based on the SoftMax function was developed and applied to the interpreter for rockburst intensity level prediction,effectively restoring the continuity of rockburst characteristics.The research results indicate that ensemble algorithms based on decision trees are more effective in capturing the characteristics of rockburst.Key factors for accurate prediction of rockburst intensity include uniaxial compressive strength,elastic energy index,the maximum principal stress,tangential stress,and their composite indicators.The accuracy of the proposed rockburst intensity level prediction expert system was verified using 20 engineering rockburst cases,with predictions aligning closely with the actual rockburst intensity levels. 展开更多
关键词 rock mechanics ROCKBURST rockburst intensity level prediction expert system machine learning supervised learning
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A Level物理教材内容及试题分析——以“天文宇宙学”为例
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作者 孟庆楠 《中学物理教学参考》 2026年第9期57-59,共3页
基于核心素养分析英国高中A Level物理教材中的天体宇宙学内容,剖析该部分内容的教学目标,以2023年6月考季第10题为例,探讨其试题命制的特点,通过对教材内容的梳理和试题的深入分析,为中学物理教学及试题多样化提供参考。
关键词 核心素养 A level物理教材 天体物理 试题命制
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The characteristics of cerebral cortical oxygenation levels and functional connectivity under upper and lower limb exercise-induced fatigue
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作者 Feng Li Yajie Wang +3 位作者 Xinyi Wang Jiawei Bi Ye Luo Lingyan Huang 《Sports Medicine and Health Science》 2026年第1期61-69,共9页
This study aims to explore the impact of fatigue induced by different limb exercises on cerebral cortical oxygenation levels and functional connectivity strength using functional near-infrared spectroscopy(fNIRS).Fati... This study aims to explore the impact of fatigue induced by different limb exercises on cerebral cortical oxygenation levels and functional connectivity strength using functional near-infrared spectroscopy(fNIRS).Fatigue was induced using an upper limb ergometer or a lower limb ergometer,with the load increasing gradually each minute.fNIRS covering the prefrontal cortex and motor cortex were used to collect data during the resting state,both before and after fatigue induction.A two-way ANOVA was conducted to examine differences in oxyhemoglobin(HbO_(2))and functional connectivity before and after fatigue induction in both groups,with the significance level set at 0.05.Exercise-induced fatigue in both the upper and lower limbs leads to a significant decrease in cerebral cortical oxygenation levels.Upper limb fatigue leads to a significant reduction in functional connectivity,there were significant decreases in connectivity within the motor cortex,between the motor cortex and frontal regions,and between the right ventrolateral prefrontal cortex and other frontal regions.Conversely,no significant changes were observed before and after lower limb fatigue.Future studies should focus on examining the extent to which how changes in the cerebral cortex,induced by exercise fatigue,are linked to exercise-and/or performance-related outcomes. 展开更多
关键词 Brain functional connectivity Cerebral oxygenation level Exercise-induced fatigue Functional near-infrared spectroscopy
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Enhancing High-Level Opening Up
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《ChinAfrica》 2026年第3期2-2,共1页
Hainan Province in south China is the country’s second-largest island and the largest free trade port by area.It has entered a historic phase in China’s drive to promote high-level institutional opening up.On 18 Dec... Hainan Province in south China is the country’s second-largest island and the largest free trade port by area.It has entered a historic phase in China’s drive to promote high-level institutional opening up.On 18 December 2025,Hainan officially launched island-wide special customs operations,commonly referred to as“customs closure.”From that date,goods entering or leaving the island,except those traded with the Chinese mainland,are subject to simplified customs procedures and potentially reduced or zero tariffs. 展开更多
关键词 free trade port Hainan Province reduced zero tariff high level opening up simplified customs procedures customs closure institutional opening up
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Heimtextil 2026 sharpened its global market relevance by attracting more top-level decision-makers
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《China Textile》 2026年第1期46-48,共3页
During 13 to 16 January 2026,with 148 participating nations,rising global relevance and a marked increase in visitor quality,Heimtextil 2026 stood for stability and reliability in a volatile market environment.Once ag... During 13 to 16 January 2026,with 148 participating nations,rising global relevance and a marked increase in visitor quality,Heimtextil 2026 stood for stability and reliability in a volatile market environment.Once again,3,000 exhibitors from across the globe placed their trust in the industry’s central platform in Frankfurt,presenting current collections,materials and textile solutions for holistic interior design to approximately 47,000 buyers.Under the motto“Lead the Change”,Heimtextil brought evolving market dynamics,Artificial Intelligence(AI)and new business opportunities to life.The focus was on progressive design approaches,visionary talents,functional textiles and new hospitality concepts shaping the future of interior design.A tangible sense of confidence and a clear commitment to Heimtextil as a strong industry partner resonated throughout the exhibition halls. 展开更多
关键词 holistic interior design rising global relevance participating nations volatile market environment top level decision makers visitor quality reliability global market relevance
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Simulating Groundwater Levels Responses to Precipitation and Withdrawal:A Lag-time Deep Learning Model
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作者 LI Shuai ZHU Lin +3 位作者 GAO Lei GONG Huili LI Xiaojuan SU Xiaosi 《Chinese Geographical Science》 2026年第2期351-364,共14页
Groundwater level(GWL)is a key indicator used to accurately assess groundwater resources and form the foundation for ef-fective groundwater management.This paper integrates a Gate Recurrent Unit(GRU)model with a Multi... Groundwater level(GWL)is a key indicator used to accurately assess groundwater resources and form the foundation for ef-fective groundwater management.This paper integrates a Gate Recurrent Unit(GRU)model with a Multi-head Self-attention mechan-ism(MSAM-GRU)to simulate GWLs in both confined and unconfined aquifers simultaneously.The model innovatively captures the lag times between GWLs in the unconfined aquifer and precipitation,as well as between GWLs in the confined aquifer and the upper aquifer.We have assessed the effectiveness of the proposed model using a case study in the Beijing Plain,China from January 2005 to December 2020.With the consideration of lag times,the results indicated that the MSAM-GRU model exhibits a maximum 67%and 73%reduction in RMSE compared to the Attention mechanism-GRU(AM-GRU)and GRU model,respectively.MSAM-GRU model exhibited a 31%reduction in RMSE and a 0.12 increase in R^(2) compared to the same model that do not account for lag time.In Region I,the shortest lag time of GWL in the unconfined aquifer was two months,while that in the confined aquifer was three months,indicating a longer delayed response in the confined aquifer.MSAM-GRU model considering lag time,was then applied to simulate the GWLs in the unconfined aquifer under different scenarios and to analyze whether GWL fluctuations affect subway operations.The simulation res-ults showed that under the scenario 1,the GWL in the unconfined aquifer would rise above the depth of subway station floor,threaten-ing the operation of subways.This study can provide reliable technical support for the accurate simulation of GWLs in multi-aquifer systems. 展开更多
关键词 groundwater level(GWL) Multi-head Self-attentionmechanism-Gate Recurrent Unit(MSAM-GRU) PRECIPITATION unconfined aquifer and confined aquifer Beijing Plain China
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英国T-Level行动计划的特色、举措与启示
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作者 杨立力 李建国 《荆楚理工学院学报》 2026年第1期16-23,共8页
英国政府为解决高校培养技能与雇主所需技能不匹配问题,推行了T-Level行动计划。T-Level行动计划依据国家与地方两个层面的数据调查,基于雇主和利益相关者需求,制定技能人才的培养目标、课程规划及技术资格认证,强调通过“工作本位”学... 英国政府为解决高校培养技能与雇主所需技能不匹配问题,推行了T-Level行动计划。T-Level行动计划依据国家与地方两个层面的数据调查,基于雇主和利益相关者需求,制定技能人才的培养目标、课程规划及技术资格认证,强调通过“工作本位”学习培养技能,并通过核心知识测评与职业专项技能考核相结合进行技能评价,在一定程度上提升了社会所需技能人才培养的质量。这为我国职业教育中高质量复合型技能人才的培养带来了三点启示:一是构建利益相关者共建、职普融通的技能培养体系;二是创建围绕“工作本位”的技能培养教学和评价模式;三是建立基于人的全面发展需求的多维技能结构。 展开更多
关键词 T-level行动计划 技术教育改革 工作本位学习 雇主项目考核
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CMA-MESO和CMA-SH9模式对中国东部地区降水预报的性能检验 被引量:1
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作者 徐同 王琴 +1 位作者 漆梁波 黄伟 《气象》 北大核心 2025年第2期167-181,共15页
采用标准降水检验方法和MODE空间检验方法,对CMA-MESO和CMA-SH9模式的2021年我国东部地区降水预报效果进行评估。结果表明:CMA-MESO和CMA-SH9模式对第二和第三季度的预报技巧相对较高,第一和第四季度的预报技巧相对较低,显示区域数值模... 采用标准降水检验方法和MODE空间检验方法,对CMA-MESO和CMA-SH9模式的2021年我国东部地区降水预报效果进行评估。结果表明:CMA-MESO和CMA-SH9模式对第二和第三季度的预报技巧相对较高,第一和第四季度的预报技巧相对较低,显示区域数值模式在暖季降水预报方面有较好的应用潜力。综合四个季度的ETS评分和BIAS分析,CMA-MESO模式第三季度降水预报技巧整体高于CMA-SH9模式,其他季节则是CMA-SH9模式预报技巧相对更高,另外,两家模式在各季度均存在BIAS偏大的特征,而且总体呈现出空报率较高的特征,改善这两方面的不足是提升区域模式降水预报技巧的重要抓手。四个季度的暴雨MODE空间检验结果显示,CMA-MESO和CMA-SH9模式对第二和第三季度的预报能力相对更优,但均存在对暴雨降水目标面积预报偏大的特征。CMA-SH9模式四个季度对暴雨降水目标各分位强度预报均相对观测值偏强,而CMA-MESO模式与观测值更为接近,仅第一季度呈现预报偏强特征。“21·7”河南特大暴雨和台风烟花的MODE空间检验结果显示CMA-MESO和CMA-SH9模式对大暴雨以上量级强降水预报均表现出影响范围偏大的特征,但对于降水极值预报偏小,CMA-SH9模式与观测极值更为接近。 展开更多
关键词 CMA-meso CMA-SH9 中国东部地区 降水检验
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CMA-MESO 3 km模式中自适应时间步长方案试验 被引量:2
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作者 邓莲堂 朱立娟 +1 位作者 张进 于翡 《气象科技》 2025年第1期10-21,共12页
时间步长是数值天气模式稳定运行的关键参数。为实现业务模式稳定运行并保证运行效率,根据CMA-MESO 3 km模式时间积分方案特点,设计了自适应时间步长方案。以模式最大库朗数为依据,提出瞄准法和削顶法两种方法。根据CMA-MESO模式动力框... 时间步长是数值天气模式稳定运行的关键参数。为实现业务模式稳定运行并保证运行效率,根据CMA-MESO 3 km模式时间积分方案特点,设计了自适应时间步长方案。以模式最大库朗数为依据,提出瞄准法和削顶法两种方法。根据CMA-MESO模式动力框架特点,研发了相应时间控制技术并在CMA-MESO 3 km系统中程序实现了自适应时间步长方案。个例和批量试验结果显示,采用瞄准法,模式中最大库朗数会在目标值附近变化,使模式更加稳定。采用削顶法,会调整模式中最大库朗数超出目标值的部分,保证模式稳定积分的同时,又尽量少地干预模式。总之,两种方法的自适应时间步长方案能够有效避免模式积分溢出情况,显著地提高模式的稳定性。对于3 km分辨率的模式来说,当库朗数目标值取1.2左右时,削顶法比瞄准法更适合业务运行。目前,自适应时间步长方案已投入业务应用。 展开更多
关键词 CMA-meso 自适应时间步长 瞄准法 削顶法
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Fast determination of meso-level mechanical parameters of PFC models 被引量:5
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作者 Guo Jianwei Xu Guoan +1 位作者 Jing Hongwen Kuang Tiejun 《International Journal of Mining Science and Technology》 SCIE EI 2013年第1期157-162,共6页
To solve the problems of blindness and inefficiency existing in the determination of meso-level mechanical parameters of particle flow code (PFC) models, we firstly designed and numerically carried out orthogonal test... To solve the problems of blindness and inefficiency existing in the determination of meso-level mechanical parameters of particle flow code (PFC) models, we firstly designed and numerically carried out orthogonal tests on rock samples to investigate the correlations between macro-and meso-level mechanical parameters of rock-like bonded granular materials. Then based on the artificial intelligent technology, the intelligent prediction systems for nine meso-level mechanical parameters of PFC models were obtained by creating, training and testing the prediction models with the set of data got from the orthogonal tests. Lastly the prediction systems were used to predict the meso-level mechanical parameters of one kind of sandy mudstone, and according to the predicted results the macroscopic properties of the rock were obtained by numerical tests. The maximum relative error between the numerical test results and real rock properties is 3.28% which satisfies the precision requirement in engineering. It shows that this paper provides a fast and accurate method for the determination of meso-level mechanical parameters of PFC models. 展开更多
关键词 Particle flow code meso-level mechanical parameter Macroscopic property Orthogonal test Intelligent prediction
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A REVIEW ON RESEARCH ON DEVELOPMENT OF LIGAMENT CONSTITUTIVE RELATIONS ON MACRO, MESO, AND MICRO LEVELS 被引量:1
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作者 Chao Wan Zhixiu Hao Shizhu Wen 《Acta Mechanica Solida Sinica》 SCIE EI CSCD 2013年第4期331-343,共13页
Ligaments are densely connective soft tissues capable of maintaining stability and function of knee joint.As an important factor,the constitutive relation of ligament would affect its biomechanics and further play an ... Ligaments are densely connective soft tissues capable of maintaining stability and function of knee joint.As an important factor,the constitutive relation of ligament would affect its biomechanics and further play an essential role in the research on ligament injury,healing and treatment.The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the current research on ligament constitutive relations on the macro,meso,and micro levels as well as the anatomy and histological structure of ligament.Some studies of biomechanical behaviors during ligament injury and healing periods have also been investigated.Based on the research on ligament constitutive relation in the past three decades,a discussion of some research perspectives is also presented,such as a validated accurate measuring method of in situ strain in ligament,a new constitutive relation involving the distribution of ultra-structural properties,and a rational estimation of ligament injury and healing process by the change of its ultra-structural or histological characteristics. 展开更多
关键词 constitutive relation LIGAMENT ULTRA-STRUCTURE MACRO meso MICRO
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基于CMA-MESO模式的机场高影响低温事件预测能力评估及订正
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作者 陈浩 何晓凤 唐娴 《气象与环境学报》 2025年第3期29-35,共7页
利用2021年东北地区13个机场天气报告(METAR)、气象站观测资料和数值模式产品,对易出现高影响低温事件的机场温度预测效果进行评估,并对高影响低温区间的预测能力进行检验,以期研究影响飞机起降的低温事件的预测能力,结果表明:东北绝大... 利用2021年东北地区13个机场天气报告(METAR)、气象站观测资料和数值模式产品,对易出现高影响低温事件的机场温度预测效果进行评估,并对高影响低温区间的预测能力进行检验,以期研究影响飞机起降的低温事件的预测能力,结果表明:东北绝大部分机场温度预报偏大,偏北、偏东和高海拔地区机场的温度绝对误差和均方根误差明显大于平原地区机场;温度误差、绝对误差和均方根误差均有明显的日变化和季节变化,06—07时是机场气温预报误差最大的时段;温度高于0℃时,预测与观测接近,温度低于0℃时,预测相对集中;ZBES、ZYMH和ZYLD采用累积概率密度订正方法对机场温度预报进行误差订正后,低温事件命中率分别提升56%、14%和9%。 展开更多
关键词 CMA-meso 温度预报 机场低温事件 订正
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基于Level Set方法的HG-80钢晶粒长大模型的建模与仿真
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作者 刘铭阳 陈学文 +5 位作者 周正 毛怡然 徐栋栋 李强 易浩 周旭东 《材料热处理学报》 北大核心 2025年第6期162-170,共9页
为了准确预测HG-80钢的晶粒长大过程并调控其微观组织,在900~1200℃的保温温度和10~1200s的保温时间条件下,采用Gleeble-1500D型热模拟机对其进行等温保温实验,分析其晶粒长大过程,并基于实验数据建立了Burke-Turnbull晶粒长大动力学模... 为了准确预测HG-80钢的晶粒长大过程并调控其微观组织,在900~1200℃的保温温度和10~1200s的保温时间条件下,采用Gleeble-1500D型热模拟机对其进行等温保温实验,分析其晶粒长大过程,并基于实验数据建立了Burke-Turnbull晶粒长大动力学模型。通过二次开发将计算所得的Burke-Turnbull模型参数导入DIGIMU■软件中,从晶粒尺寸分布、晶粒生长动力学和晶粒拓扑结构等方面,基于Level Set方法建立了描述HG-80钢的晶粒长大模型并通过DIGIMU■软件进行仿真计算。结果表明:随着保温时间的增加,实验钢的晶粒尺寸明显增大,晶粒生长速率逐渐减小,呈抛物线状增长;为了验证Burke-Turnbull模型的准确性,将平均晶粒尺寸的模型预测值与实验值进行对比,相关系数R为0.991,表明该模型的准确性较高;通过Level Set方法仿真计算得出的晶粒形貌与实验结果吻合良好,证明该模型能有效预测不同热处理条件下HG-80钢的晶粒长大过程。 展开更多
关键词 HG-80钢 level Set方法 晶粒长大 Burke-Turnbull模型
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CMA-MESO 3 km模式10 m风预报产品在山西区域的定量检验及客观订正 被引量:2
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作者 苗青 董春卿 +1 位作者 孙颖姝 毕玉婷 《气象科技》 2025年第1期22-34,共13页
风场预报是智能网格预报的重要支撑,提高风场预报准确率,能够为风能预报提供核心保障。在综合评估2023年汛期CMA-MESO 3 km(China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale Model at 3 km resolution)模式在山西逐小时10 m风预报能力... 风场预报是智能网格预报的重要支撑,提高风场预报准确率,能够为风能预报提供核心保障。在综合评估2023年汛期CMA-MESO 3 km(China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale Model at 3 km resolution)模式在山西逐小时10 m风预报能力的基础上,基于自适应Kalman滤波方法,开展针对纬向风(U)、经向风(V)的客观订正,以期建立适应山西复杂地形特征的客观预报方案,促进国产模式本地化业务应用。结果表明:①全风速预报偏大,预报误差呈“单峰型”日变化,峰值出现在18:00-20:00,正偏差主要位于忻定和太原盆地以及山西南部。②U、V预报误差与预报值呈显著正相关,需考虑不同强度预报风速误差随时效变化的特征,避免订正不足或过订正。③Kalman滤波方案(KM)订正幅度小且不稳定,订正后均方根误差R MSE削减不足6%,准确率提升不足2%。④基于动态分级的改进方案(CBKM)突破KM订正瓶颈,更准确地估计系统误差并有效订正,更好再现不同地区风速日变化,平均误差M E趋近0,R MSE削减32.8%,风向、风速预报准确率分别提升8.29%、7.92%,峰值时刻订正率达83.49%。 展开更多
关键词 CMA-meso 3 km 10 m风 KALMAN滤波 动态分级
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基于机器学习的CMA-MESO模式气温预报订正方法研究
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作者 张会 陈军明 +5 位作者 王亚强 马凤莲 周煜 卢宇坤 刘通 张良玉 《气象与环境学报》 2025年第3期18-28,共11页
为提高雄安新区及上游保定地区气温预报准确性,利用CMA-MESO中尺度天气模式预报产品和地面观测数据,采用线性回归(Linear Regression)、长短期记忆全卷积网络(LSTM-FCN)和轻量级梯度提升机(LightGBM)等三种机器学习方法,围绕站点划分和... 为提高雄安新区及上游保定地区气温预报准确性,利用CMA-MESO中尺度天气模式预报产品和地面观测数据,采用线性回归(Linear Regression)、长短期记忆全卷积网络(LSTM-FCN)和轻量级梯度提升机(LightGBM)等三种机器学习方法,围绕站点划分和特征因子选择设计4种订正方案开展气温预报研究。结果显示:采用分区站点模型优于全站点模型,LightGBM在全部方案中表现最优。特别是结合起报时刻前48 h的实况数据以及预报时刻前4·k的预报或实况要素(在预报时效0~36 h内:0~12 h预报时效采用预报时刻前0~12 h的实况数据,k取0~12;13~36 h预报时效采用预报时刻前12h的预报数据,k固定为12)构建复合特征因子,LightGBM预测性能进一步提升。37个预报时效均在CMA-MESO模式预报结果基础上提高了精度,尤其在海拔超过1000 m的高原地区,均方根误差订正改善率超过30%。此外,在转折性天气背景下,这些方法依旧展现出较强的适应能力。从整体预报性能来看,LightGBM最优,均方根误差、平均绝对误差、准确率分别为1.86℃、1.42℃、75%,相比CMA-MESO预报,分别提高了36.5%、38.9%和44.4%。 展开更多
关键词 CMA-meso 预报订正 机器学习 气温预报
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Mineralization at Different Structural Levels in the Crust 被引量:1
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作者 LI Saisai ZHANG Hongrui HOU Zengqian 《Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition)》 2025年第4期1042-1058,共17页
Metallogenic research on structural levels can reveal vertical patterns of mineralization and facilitate the deep exploration of economic minerals.However,research focusing on the correlation between structural levels... Metallogenic research on structural levels can reveal vertical patterns of mineralization and facilitate the deep exploration of economic minerals.However,research focusing on the correlation between structural levels and mineralization remains limited.In this study,we summarize the deformation patterns and associated mineral deposits observed at different crustal levels(i.e.,surface,shallow,middle,and deep structural levels,corresponding to depths of<2,2-8,8-15,and>15 km,respectively).Furthermore,we examine the genetic association between structural levels and metallogenesis,demonstrating that distinct structural levels are linked to specific types of mineralization.Key factors that vary across crustal levels include temperature,pressure,and fluid circulation.Ore-forming processes involve interactions between structures and fluids under varying temperatures and pressures.Structural levels influence mineralization by controlling the temperatures,pressures,and deformation mechanisms that drive the activation,migration,and enrichment of ore-forming materials. 展开更多
关键词 deformation MINERALIZATION structural control structural level crustal level
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Reservoir water level prediction using combined CEEMDAN-FE and RUN-SVM-RBFNN machine learning algorithms 被引量:2
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作者 Lan-ting Zhou Guan-lin Long +1 位作者 Can-can Hu Kai Zhang 《Water Science and Engineering》 2025年第2期177-186,共10页
Accurate prediction of water level changes in reservoirs is crucial for optimizing the operation of reservoir projects and ensuring their safety.This study proposed a method for reservoir water level prediction based ... Accurate prediction of water level changes in reservoirs is crucial for optimizing the operation of reservoir projects and ensuring their safety.This study proposed a method for reservoir water level prediction based on CEEMDAN-FE and RUN-SVM-RBFNN algorithms.By integrating the adaptive complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise(CEEMDAN)method and fuzzy entropy(FE)with the new and highly efficient Runge–Kuta optimizer(RUN),adaptive parameter optimization for the support vector machine(SVM)and radial basis function neural network(RBFNN)algorithms was achieved.Regression prediction was conducted on the two reconstructed sequences using SVM and RBFNN according to their respective features.This approach improved the accuracy and stability of predictions.In terms of accuracy,the combined model outperformed single models,with the determination coefficient,root mean square error,and mean absolute error values of 0.9975,0.2418 m,and 0.1616 m,respectively.In terms of stability,the model predicted more consistently in training and testing periods,with stable overall prediction accuracy and a better adaptive ability to complex datasets.The case study demonstrated that the combined prediction model effectively addressed the environmental factors affecting reservoir water levels,leveraged the strength of each predictive method,compensated for their limitations,and clarified the impacts of environmental factors on reservoir water levels. 展开更多
关键词 Time series Environmental variable Reservoir water level Data decomposition Optimization Forecasting
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CMA-MESO模式在ARM架构、麒麟系统超算上的效果评估
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作者 彭芳 严小冬 +1 位作者 齐大鹏 唐维尧 《山地气象学报》 2025年第6期12-19,共8页
【目的】为开展基于国产ARM架构超算的区域数值模式的适用性研究。【方法】以CMA-MESO模式为基准,分别在中国气象局超算派平台(X86架构)、贵州气象超算kunpeng平台(ARM架构、麒麟系统)进行预报试验,对温度和降水进行检验,评估CMA-MESO... 【目的】为开展基于国产ARM架构超算的区域数值模式的适用性研究。【方法】以CMA-MESO模式为基准,分别在中国气象局超算派平台(X86架构)、贵州气象超算kunpeng平台(ARM架构、麒麟系统)进行预报试验,对温度和降水进行检验,评估CMA-MESO模式在ARM架构国产超算上的可用性。【结果】1)2个不同架构平台各层的气象要素分布形状和结构的差异不明显。X86架构在加入同化后TS评分效果最好,ARM架构在加入同化后产生了负效果,其他指标随着预报时效的增加保持一致的变化趋势。2)长序列回算检验表明:ARM架构的小时降水均方根误差小于X86架构,TS评分高于X86架构,均方根误差随着预报时效的增加不断增大。2个平台温度的误差较小,变化趋势也一致,CMA-MESO模式在2个平台都表现出误差随预报时效增大而减小的趋势。3)模式的误差主要由积分模块带来,CMA-MESO模式在国产ARM架构平台的超算集群上可以保持与X86平台较小的预报差异,但国产ARM架构集群的计算性能不如主流的X86架构集群。【结论】ARM架构平台可以实现CMA-MESO模式的成功移植,计算结果不能完全与X86架构一致,总体预报评分与X86接近,基本满足业务和科研需求。 展开更多
关键词 CMA-meso ARM架构 鲲鹏 麒麟V10 检验评估
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