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Road pavement performance prediction using a time series long short-term memory (LSTM) model
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作者 Chuanchuan HOU Huan WANG +1 位作者 Wei GUAN Jun CHEN 《Journal of Zhejiang University-Science A(Applied Physics & Engineering)》 2025年第5期424-437,共14页
Intelligent maintenance of roads and highways requires accurate deterioration evaluation and performance prediction of asphalt pavement.To this end,we develop a time series long short-term memory(LSTM)model to predict... Intelligent maintenance of roads and highways requires accurate deterioration evaluation and performance prediction of asphalt pavement.To this end,we develop a time series long short-term memory(LSTM)model to predict key performance indicators(PIs)of pavement,namely the international roughness index(IRI)and rutting depth(RD).Subsequently,we propose a comprehensive performance indicator for the pavement quality index(PQI),which leverages the highway performance assessment standard method,entropy weight method,and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.This indicator can evaluate the overall performance condition of the pavement.The data used for the model development and analysis are extracted from tests on two full-scale accelerated test tracks,called MnRoad and RIOHTrack.Six variables are used as predictors,including temperature,precipitation,total traffic volume,asphalt surface layer thickness,pavement age,and maintenance condition.Furthermore,wavelet denoising is performed to analyze the impact of missing or abnormal data on the LSTM model accuracy.In comparison to a traditional autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMAX)model,the proposed LSTM model performs better in terms of PI prediction and resiliency to noise.Finally,the overall prediction accuracy of our proposed performance indicator PQI is 93.8%. 展开更多
关键词 Asphalt pavement performance model International roughness index(IRI) Rutting depth(RD) Long short-term memory(lstm)model Pavement management system
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基于Modelica-LSTM双驱动的数字孪生机床热误差补偿模型构建
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作者 孙丽 王诗灏 +3 位作者 姜锋 关咏臻 徐家淳 刘荣玺 《制造技术与机床》 北大核心 2025年第10期205-213,共9页
针对数控机床在高速、高负载运行中因热变形导致的热误差问题,提出一种基于Modelica多领域建模与长短期记忆网络(long short-term memory,LSTM)联合驱动的热误差补偿方法。通过Modelica构建机床机械、电气、热力学多物理场耦合的高保真... 针对数控机床在高速、高负载运行中因热变形导致的热误差问题,提出一种基于Modelica多领域建模与长短期记忆网络(long short-term memory,LSTM)联合驱动的热误差补偿方法。通过Modelica构建机床机械、电气、热力学多物理场耦合的高保真数字孪生模型,结合LSTM对机理模型未覆盖的非线性动态误差进行数据驱动补偿。实验以五轴数控加工中心DMG MORI DMU 50为对象,在预热、阶梯加载及扰动工况下采集温度、振动和热误差数据,验证模型性能。结果表明,Modelica-LSTM双驱动模型相较于单一Modelica机理模型,均方根误差降低51.2%,补偿后误差波动幅度减少72%,在高温及动态工况下显著提升预测精度。该方法为高精密机床热误差补偿提供了物理与数据协同驱动的有效解决方案。 展开更多
关键词 数控机床 热误差补偿 modelICA 长短期记忆网络 多领域建模 数字孪生
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Dynamic intelligent prediction approach for landslide displacement based on biological growth models and CNN-LSTM 被引量:2
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作者 WANG Ziqian FANG Xiangwei +3 位作者 ZHANG Wengang WANG Luqi WANG Kai CHEN Chao 《Journal of Mountain Science》 2025年第1期71-88,共18页
Influenced by complex external factors,the displacement-time curve of reservoir landslides demonstrates both short-term and long-term diversity and dynamic complexity.It is difficult for existing methods,including Reg... Influenced by complex external factors,the displacement-time curve of reservoir landslides demonstrates both short-term and long-term diversity and dynamic complexity.It is difficult for existing methods,including Regression models and Neural network models,to perform multi-characteristic coupled displacement prediction because they fail to consider landslide creep characteristics.This paper integrates the creep characteristics of landslides with non-linear intelligent algorithms and proposes a dynamic intelligent landslide displacement prediction method based on a combination of the Biological Growth model(BG),Convolutional Neural Network(CNN),and Long ShortTerm Memory Network(LSTM).This prediction approach improves three different biological growth models,thereby effectively extracting landslide creep characteristic parameters.Simultaneously,it integrates external factors(rainfall and reservoir water level)to construct an internal and external comprehensive dataset for data augmentation,which is input into the improved CNN-LSTM model.Thereafter,harnessing the robust feature extraction capabilities and spatial translation invariance of CNN,the model autonomously captures short-term local fluctuation characteristics of landslide displacement,and combines LSTM's efficient handling of long-term nonlinear temporal data to improve prediction performance.An evaluation of the Liangshuijing landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area indicates that BG-CNN-LSTM exhibits high prediction accuracy,excellent generalization capabilities when dealing with various types of landslides.The research provides an innovative approach to achieving the whole-process,realtime,high-precision displacement predictions for multicharacteristic coupled landslides. 展开更多
关键词 Reservoir landslides Displacement prediction CNN lstm Biological growth model
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A Comparative Study of Optimized-LSTM Models Using Tree-Structured Parzen Estimator for Traffic Flow Forecasting in Intelligent Transportation 被引量:1
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作者 Hamza Murad Khan Anwar Khan +3 位作者 Santos Gracia Villar Luis Alonso DzulLopez Abdulaziz Almaleh Abdullah M.Al-Qahtani 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 2025年第5期3369-3388,共20页
Traffic forecasting with high precision aids Intelligent Transport Systems(ITS)in formulating and optimizing traffic management strategies.The algorithms used for tuning the hyperparameters of the deep learning models... Traffic forecasting with high precision aids Intelligent Transport Systems(ITS)in formulating and optimizing traffic management strategies.The algorithms used for tuning the hyperparameters of the deep learning models often have accurate results at the expense of high computational complexity.To address this problem,this paper uses the Tree-structured Parzen Estimator(TPE)to tune the hyperparameters of the Long Short-term Memory(LSTM)deep learning framework.The Tree-structured Parzen Estimator(TPE)uses a probabilistic approach with an adaptive searching mechanism by classifying the objective function values into good and bad samples.This ensures fast convergence in tuning the hyperparameter values in the deep learning model for performing prediction while still maintaining a certain degree of accuracy.It also overcomes the problem of converging to local optima and avoids timeconsuming random search and,therefore,avoids high computational complexity in prediction accuracy.The proposed scheme first performs data smoothing and normalization on the input data,which is then fed to the input of the TPE for tuning the hyperparameters.The traffic data is then input to the LSTM model with tuned parameters to perform the traffic prediction.The three optimizers:Adaptive Moment Estimation(Adam),Root Mean Square Propagation(RMSProp),and Stochastic Gradient Descend with Momentum(SGDM)are also evaluated for accuracy prediction and the best optimizer is then chosen for final traffic prediction in TPE-LSTM model.Simulation results verify the effectiveness of the proposed model in terms of accuracy of prediction over the benchmark schemes. 展开更多
关键词 Short-term traffic prediction sequential time series prediction TPE tree-structured parzen estimator lstm hyperparameter tuning hybrid prediction model
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Load-measurement method for floating offshore wind turbines based on a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network
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作者 Yonggang LIN Xiangheng FENG +1 位作者 Hongwei LIU Yong SUN 《Journal of Zhejiang University-Science A(Applied Physics & Engineering)》 2025年第5期456-470,共15页
Complicated loads encountered by floating offshore wind turbines(FOWTs)in real sea conditions are crucial for future optimization of design,but obtaining data on them directly poses a challenge.To address this issue,w... Complicated loads encountered by floating offshore wind turbines(FOWTs)in real sea conditions are crucial for future optimization of design,but obtaining data on them directly poses a challenge.To address this issue,we applied machine learning techniques to obtain hydrodynamic and aerodynamic loads of FOWTs by measuring platform motion responses and wave-elevation sequences.First,a computational fluid dynamics(CFD)simulation model of the floating platform was established based on the dynamic fluid body interaction technique and overset grid technology.Then,a long short-term memory(LSTM)neural network model was constructed and trained to learn the nonlinear relationship between the waves,platform-motion inputs,and hydrodynamic-load outputs.The optimal model was determined after analyzing the sensitivity of parameters such as sample characteristics,network layers,and neuron numbers.Subsequently,the effectiveness of the hydrodynamic load model was validated under different simulation conditions,and the aerodynamic load calculation was completed based on the D'Alembert principle.Finally,we built a hybrid-scale FOWT model,based on the software in the loop strategy,in which the wind turbine was replaced by an actuation system.Model tests were carried out in a wave basin and the results demonstrated that the root mean square errors of the hydrodynamic and aerodynamic load measurements were 4.20%and 10.68%,respectively. 展开更多
关键词 Floating offshore wind turbine(FOWT) Long short-term memory(lstm)neural network Machine learning technique Load measurement Hybrid-scale model test
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Enhanced forecasting of coastal chlorophyll-a through AdaBoost-optimized LSTM models
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作者 Wenxiang Ding Caiyun Zhang +2 位作者 Xueding Li Liyu Zhang Nengwang Chen 《Acta Oceanologica Sinica》 2025年第7期147-160,共14页
Algal blooms pose significant threats to marine ecosystems and human health.Accurate forecasting of chlorophyll-a(Chl-a)concentration is critical for effective control of harmful algal blooms(HABs).This study proposes... Algal blooms pose significant threats to marine ecosystems and human health.Accurate forecasting of chlorophyll-a(Chl-a)concentration is critical for effective control of harmful algal blooms(HABs).This study proposes a novel approach for enhancing Chl-a concentration forecasting by integrating the AdaBoost algorithm with long short-term memory(LSTM)neural networks.We developed a strong forecasting model by combining adaptive boosting(AdaBoost)with LSTM models in Xiamen Bay,China.This model achieved higher correlation coefficients and lower root mean square errors than individual weak models.The AdaBoost-optimized model increased the frequency of low absolute errors while decreasing the occurrence of high absolute errors,which indicated improved overall prediction accuracy and reliability.Moreover,the model effectively reduced performance fluctuations,which are frequent in deep learning models.The application of a non-uniform initial weighting scheme within the AdaBoost framework further enhanced model performance for high Chl-a concentration values,which are critical for detecting HABs.The optimization effect of AdaBoost was validated by applying it to data collected from the Ningde area.A robust framework is provided in this study to improve Chl-a concentration predictions and offer valuable insights for managing coastal ecosystems facing the challenges of algal blooms. 展开更多
关键词 chlorophyll-a concentration forecasting long short-term memory(lstm) ADABOOST deep learning ensemble learning
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A Hybrid LSTM-Single Candidate Optimizer Model for Short-Term Wind Power Prediction
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作者 Mehmet Balci Emrah Dokur Ugur Yuzgec 《Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences》 2025年第7期945-968,共24页
Accurate prediction of wind energy plays a vital role in maintaining grid stability and supporting the broader shift toward renewable energy systems.Nevertheless,the inherently variable nature of wind and the intricac... Accurate prediction of wind energy plays a vital role in maintaining grid stability and supporting the broader shift toward renewable energy systems.Nevertheless,the inherently variable nature of wind and the intricacy of high-dimensional datasets pose major obstacles to reliable forecasting.To address these difficulties,this study presents an innovative hybrid method for short-term wind power prediction by combining a Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)network with a Single Candidate Optimizer(SCO)algorithm.In contrast to conventional techniques that rely on random parameter initialization,the proposed LSTM-SCO framework leverages the distinctive capability of SCO to work with a single candidate solution,thereby substantially reducing the computational overhead compared to traditional population-based metaheuristics.The performance of the model was benchmarked against various classical and deep learning models across datasets from three geographically diverse sites,using multiple evaluation metrics.Experimental findings demonstrate that the SCO-optimized model enhances prediction accuracy by up to 12.5%over standard LSTM implementations. 展开更多
关键词 lstm wind forecasting hybrid forecasting model single candidate optimizer
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Runoff simulation and prediction of typical basins in the Jiziwan Region of the Yellow River Basin based on Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)neural network
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作者 SUN Jiaqi ZHANG Jianyun +4 位作者 WANG Xiaojun WANG Ao WU Xijun ZOU Rui MIAO Ping 《Journal of Mountain Science》 2025年第10期3545-3563,共19页
This study employs the Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)rainfall-runoff model to simulate and predict runoff in typical basins of the Jiziwan Region of the Yellow River,aiming to overcome the shortcomings of traditional hy... This study employs the Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)rainfall-runoff model to simulate and predict runoff in typical basins of the Jiziwan Region of the Yellow River,aiming to overcome the shortcomings of traditional hydrological models in complex nonlinear environments.The Jiziwan Region of the Yellow River is affected by human activities such as urbanization,agricultural development,and water resource management,leading to increasingly complex hydrological processes.Traditional hydrological models struggle to effectively capture the relationship between rainfall and runoff.The LSTM rainfall-runoff model,using deep learning techniques,automatically extracts features from data,identifies complex patterns and long-term dependency in time series,and provides more accurate and reliable runoff predictions.The results demonstrate that the LSTM rainfall-runoff model adapts well to the complex hydrological characteristics of the Jiziwan Region,showing superior performance over traditional hydrological models,especially in addressing the changing trends under the influence of climate change and human activities.By analyzing the interannual and within-year variations of runoff under different climate change scenarios,the model can predict the evolution trends of runoff under future climate conditions,providing a scientific basis for water resource management and decision-making.The results indicate that under different climate change scenarios,the runoff in several typical basins of the Jiziwan Region exhibits different variation trends.Under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5,some basins,such as the Wuding River Basin,Tuwei River Basin,and Gushanchuan Basin,show a decreasing trend in annual runoff.For example,in the Wuding River Basin,the average runoff from 2025 to 2040 is 12.48 m^(3)/s(SSP1-2.6),with an annual decrease of 0.10 m^(3)/s;in the Tuwei River Basin,the runoff from 2025 to 2040 is 12.96 m^(3)/s(SSP1-2.6),with an annual decrease of 0.10 m^(3)/s.In contrast,under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5,with climate warming and changes in precipitation patterns,runoff in some basins shows an increasing trend,particularly during the snowmelt period and with increased summer precipitation,leading to a significant rise in runoff. 展开更多
关键词 lstm rainfall-runoff model Climate scenarios RUNOFF Yellow River Basin
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Attention⁃Based Multi⁃scale CNN and LSTM Model for Remaining Useful Life Estimation
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作者 DUAN Jiajun LU Zhong DU Zhiqiang 《Transactions of Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics》 2025年第S1期64-77,共14页
Current aero-engine life prediction areas typically focus on single-scale degradation features,and the existing methods are not comprehensive enough to capture the relationship within time series data.To address this ... Current aero-engine life prediction areas typically focus on single-scale degradation features,and the existing methods are not comprehensive enough to capture the relationship within time series data.To address this problem,we propose a novel remaining useful life(RUL)estimation method based on the attention mechanism.Our approach designs a two-layer multi-scale feature extraction module that integrates degradation features at different scales.These features are then processed in parallel by a self-attention module and a three-layer long short-term memory(LSTM)network,which together capture long-term dependencies and adaptively weigh important feature.The integration of degradation patterns from both components into the attention module enhances the model’s ability to capture long-term dependencies.Visualizing the attention module’s weight matrices further improves model interpretability.Experimental results on the C-MAPSS dataset demonstrate that our approach outperforms the existing state-of-the-art methods. 展开更多
关键词 attention mechanism convolutional neural network(CNN) long short-term memory(lstm) multi-scale feature extraction
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Prediction of Self-Care Behaviors in Patients Using High-Density Surface Electromyography Signals and an Improved Whale Optimization Algorithm-Based LSTM Model
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作者 Shuai Huang Dan Liu +4 位作者 Youfa Fu Jiadui Chen Ling He Jing Yan Di Yang 《Journal of Bionic Engineering》 2025年第4期1963-1984,共22页
Stroke survivors often face significant challenges when performing daily self-care activities due to upper limb motor impairments.Traditional surface electromyography(sEMG)analysis typically focuses on isolated hand p... Stroke survivors often face significant challenges when performing daily self-care activities due to upper limb motor impairments.Traditional surface electromyography(sEMG)analysis typically focuses on isolated hand postures,overlooking the complexity of object-interactive behaviors that are crucial for promoting patient independence.This study introduces a novel framework that combines high-density sEMG(HD-sEMG)signals with an improved Whale Optimization Algorithm(IWOA)-optimized Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)network to address this limitation.The key contributions of this work include:(1)the creation of a specialized HD-sEMG dataset that captures nine continuous self-care behaviors,along with time and posture markers,to better reflect real-world patient interactions;(2)the development of a multi-channel feature fusion module based on Pascal’s theorem,which enables efficient signal segmentation and spatial–temporal feature extraction;and(3)the enhancement of the IWOA algorithm,which integrates optimal point set initialization,a diversity-driven pooling mechanism,and cosine-based differential evolution to optimize LSTM hyperparameters,thereby improving convergence and global search capabilities.Experimental results demonstrate superior performance,achieving 99.58%accuracy in self-care behavior recognition and 86.19%accuracy for 17 continuous gestures on the Ninapro db2 benchmark.The framework operates with low latency,meeting the real-time requirements for assistive devices.By enabling precise,context-aware recognition of daily activities,this work advances personalized rehabilitation technologies,empowering stroke patients to regain autonomy in self-care tasks.The proposed methodology offers a robust,scalable solution for clinical applications,bridging the gap between laboratory-based gesture recognition and practical,patient-centered care. 展开更多
关键词 Self-care behaviors High-density surface electromyography(HD-sEMG) Long Short-Term memory(lstm)network Multi-channel feature fusion
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Multi-scale Numerical Simulations for Crack Propagation in NiTi Shape Memory Alloys by Molecular Dynamics-based Cohesive Zone Model
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作者 LI Yunfei WANG Yuancen HE Qinshu 《Journal of Wuhan University of Technology(Materials Science)》 2025年第2期599-609,共11页
The multi-scale modeling combined with the cohesive zone model(CZM)and the molecular dynamics(MD)method were preformed to simulate the crack propagation in NiTi shape memory alloys(SMAs).The metallographic microscope ... The multi-scale modeling combined with the cohesive zone model(CZM)and the molecular dynamics(MD)method were preformed to simulate the crack propagation in NiTi shape memory alloys(SMAs).The metallographic microscope and image processing technology were employed to achieve a quantitative grain size distribution of NiTi alloys so as to provide experimental data for molecular dynamics modeling at the atomic scale.Considering the size effect of molecular dynamics model on material properties,a reasonable modeling size was provided by taking into account three characteristic dimensions from the perspective of macro,meso,and micro scales according to the Buckinghamπtheorem.Then,the corresponding MD simulation on deformation and fracture behavior was investigated to derive a parameterized traction-separation(T-S)law,and then it was embedded into cohesive elements of finite element software.Thus,the crack propagation behavior in NiTi alloys was reproduced by the finite element method(FEM).The experimental results show that the predicted initiation fracture toughness is in good agreement with experimental data.In addition,it is found that the dynamics initiation fracture toughness increases with decreasing grain size and increasing loading velocity. 展开更多
关键词 NiTi shape memory alloys multi-scale numerical simulation crack propagation the cohesive zone model molecular dynamics simulation
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Spatial-temporal simulation and prediction of root zone soil moisture based on Hydrus-1D and CNN-LSTM-attention models in Yutian Oasis,southern Xinjiang,China
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作者 Xiaobo LÜ Ilyas NURMEMET +4 位作者 Sentian XIAO Jing ZHAO Xinru YU Yilizhati AILI Shiqin LI 《Pedosphere》 2025年第5期846-857,共12页
Root zone soil moisture(RZSM)plays a critical role in land-atmosphere hydrological cycles and serves as the primary water source for vegetation growth.However,the correlations between RZSM and its associated variables... Root zone soil moisture(RZSM)plays a critical role in land-atmosphere hydrological cycles and serves as the primary water source for vegetation growth.However,the correlations between RZSM and its associated variables,including surface soil moisture(SSM),often exhibit nonlinearities that are challenging to identify and quantify using conventional statistical techniques.Therefore,this study presents a hybrid convolutional neural network(CNN)-long short-term memory neural network(LSTM)-attention(CLA)model for predicting RZSM.Owing to the scarcity of soil moisture(SM)observation data,the physical model Hydrus-1D was employed to simulate a comprehensive dataset of spatial-temporal SM.Meteorological data and moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer vegetation characterization parameters were used as predictor variables for the training and validation of the CLA model.The results of the CLA model for SM prediction in the root zone were significantly enhanced compared with those of the traditional LSTM and CNN-LSTM models.This was particularly notable at the depth of 80–100 cm,where the fitness(R^(2))reached nearly 0.9298.Moreover,the root mean square error of the CLA model was reduced by 49%and 57%compared with those of the LSTM and CNN-LSTM models,respectively.This study demonstrates that the integration of physical modeling and deep learning methods provides a more comprehensive and accurate understanding of spatial-temporal SM variations in the root zone. 展开更多
关键词 arid region convolutional neural network deep learning method hybrid prediction model leaf area index long short-term memory neural network normalized difference vegetation index physical model surface soil moisture
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基于ARIMA-LSTM的矿区地表沉降预测方法 被引量:4
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作者 王磊 马驰骋 +1 位作者 齐俊艳 袁瑞甫 《计算机工程》 北大核心 2025年第1期98-105,共8页
煤矿开采安全问题尤其是采空区地表沉降现象会对人员安全及工程安全造成威胁,研究合适的矿区地表沉降预测方法具有很大意义。矿区地表沉降影响因素复杂,单一的深度学习模型对矿区地表沉降数据拟合效果差且现有的地表沉降预测研究多是单... 煤矿开采安全问题尤其是采空区地表沉降现象会对人员安全及工程安全造成威胁,研究合适的矿区地表沉降预测方法具有很大意义。矿区地表沉降影响因素复杂,单一的深度学习模型对矿区地表沉降数据拟合效果差且现有的地表沉降预测研究多是单独进行概率预测或考虑时序特性进行点预测,难以在考虑数据的时序特征的同时对其随机性进行定量描述。针对此问题,在对数据本身性质进行观察分析后选择差分整合移动平均自回归(ARIMA)模型进行时序特征的概率预测,结合长短时记忆(LSTM)网络模型来学习复杂的且具有长期依赖性的非线性时序特征。提出基于ARIMA-LSTM的地表沉降预测模型,利用ARIMA模型对数据的时序线性部分进行预测,并将ARIMA模型预测的残差数据辅助LSTM模型训练,在考虑时序特征的同时对数据的随机性进行描述。研究结果表明,相较于单独采用ARIMA或LSTM模型,该方法具有更高的预测精度(MSE为0.262 87,MAE为0.408 15,RMSE为0.512 71)。进一步的对比结果显示,预测结果与雷达卫星影像数据(经SBAS-INSAR处理后)趋势一致,证实了该方法的有效性。 展开更多
关键词 煤矿采空区 地表沉降预测 时序概率预测 差分整合移动平均自回归 长短时记忆网络
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基于CNN-LSTM-Attention 组合模型的黄金周旅游客流预测——以大理州为例 被引量:1
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作者 戢晓峰 郭雅诗 +2 位作者 陈方 黄志文 李武 《干旱区资源与环境》 北大核心 2025年第3期200-208,共9页
黄金周旅游客流预测一直是区域旅游管理的重大现实需求,能够为黄金周旅游组织提供更为精准的数据支持。文中基于百度迁徙数据和百度搜索指数数据,以卷积神经网络(CNN)、长短期记忆网络(LSTM)以及注意力机制(Attention)为基准,构建了CNN-... 黄金周旅游客流预测一直是区域旅游管理的重大现实需求,能够为黄金周旅游组织提供更为精准的数据支持。文中基于百度迁徙数据和百度搜索指数数据,以卷积神经网络(CNN)、长短期记忆网络(LSTM)以及注意力机制(Attention)为基准,构建了CNN-LSTM-Attention组合模型,对大理州黄金周日度旅游客流人数进行了预测,并基于SHAP算法进行了影响因素分析。结果显示:1)CNN-LSTM-Attention组合模型的预测精度优于RF模型、SVM模型、CNN模型、LSTM模型和CNN-LSTM模型。2)引入百度搜索指数特征后,模型的均方根误差(RMSE)、平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)、决定系数(R^(2))表现最优,表明百度搜索指数的加入在一定程度上提升了模型的预测精度。文中所构模型为黄金周旅游客流预测提供了新思路。 展开更多
关键词 客流预测 黄金周 卷积神经网络(CNN) 长短期记忆网络(lstm) 注意力机制
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城市内涝监测点积水深度LSTM预测模型 被引量:1
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作者 薛丰昌 杨猛 +2 位作者 陈剑飞 吕鑫 杨鋆霞 《测绘科学》 北大核心 2025年第3期159-167,共9页
针对如何利用积涝监测站观测的时序积涝监测数据和降雨数据,准确预测积涝点积水发展趋势的问题,以河南开封市城区为研究对象,收集了2020—2021年间12个积水监测站的小时积水深度数据和6个气象站的小时降水数据。通过对原始数据进行清洗... 针对如何利用积涝监测站观测的时序积涝监测数据和降雨数据,准确预测积涝点积水发展趋势的问题,以河南开封市城区为研究对象,收集了2020—2021年间12个积水监测站的小时积水深度数据和6个气象站的小时降水数据。通过对原始数据进行清洗和归一化处理,将气象站的小时降水数据与对应时间的积水深度数据作为样本,构建了基于双向长短期记忆网络(LSTM)的积水深度预测模型,该模型实现利用6h和3h的降水及积水监测数据,预测未来1h的积水深度。将2021年7月20—21日48h数据作为测试集,验证模型在极端强降雨条件下的预测能力,模型的均方根误差(RMSE)分别为2.10cm和3.94cm。研究结果表明,所建立的LSTM模型能够克服传统时序预测模型在处理非线性关系时的局限性,在积水深度预测方面具有较高的准确性和可靠性。 展开更多
关键词 城市内涝 积涝监测 lstm 预测模型
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基于Bi‑LSTM和时序注意力的异常心音检测 被引量:1
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作者 卢官明 蔡亚宁 +3 位作者 卢峻禾 戚继荣 王洋 赵宇航 《南京邮电大学学报(自然科学版)》 北大核心 2025年第1期12-20,共9页
异常心音检测是对心脏病进行初步诊断的一种有效而方便的方法。为提升异常心音的检测性能,提出了一种基于双向长短时记忆网络(Bi⁃directional Long Short⁃Term Memory,Bi⁃LSTM)和时序注意力的异常心音检测算法。首先对心音片段进行分帧... 异常心音检测是对心脏病进行初步诊断的一种有效而方便的方法。为提升异常心音的检测性能,提出了一种基于双向长短时记忆网络(Bi⁃directional Long Short⁃Term Memory,Bi⁃LSTM)和时序注意力的异常心音检测算法。首先对心音片段进行分帧处理,使用平均幅度差函数(Average Magnitude Difference Function,AMDF)和短时过零率(Short⁃Time Zero⁃Crossing Rate,STZCR)提取每帧心音信号的初始特征;然后将它们拼接后作为Bi⁃LSTM的输入,并引入时序注意力机制,挖掘特征的长期依赖关系,提取心音信号的上下文时域特征;最后通过Softmax分类器,实现正常/异常心音的分类。在PhysioNet/CinC Challenge 2016提供的心音公共数据集上对所提出的算法使用10折交叉验证法进行了评估,其准确度、灵敏度、特异性、精度和F1评分分别为0.9579、0.9364、0.9642、0.8838和0.9093,优于已有的其他算法。实验结果表明,该算法在无需进行心音分段的基础上就能有效实现异常心音检测,在心血管疾病的临床辅助诊断中具有潜在的应用前景。 展开更多
关键词 心音分类 平均幅度差函数 短时过零率 双向长短时记忆网络 时序注意力机制
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基于SSA-LSTM-Attention的日光温室环境预测模型 被引量:1
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作者 孟繁佳 许瑞峰 +3 位作者 赵维娟 宋文臻 高艺璇 李莉 《农业工程学报》 北大核心 2025年第11期256-263,共8页
建立准确的温室环境预测模型有助于精准调控温室环境促进作物的生长发育,针对温室小气候具有时序性、非线性和强耦合等特点,该研究提出了一种基于SSA-LSTM-Attention(sparrow search algorithm-long short-term memoryattention mechani... 建立准确的温室环境预测模型有助于精准调控温室环境促进作物的生长发育,针对温室小气候具有时序性、非线性和强耦合等特点,该研究提出了一种基于SSA-LSTM-Attention(sparrow search algorithm-long short-term memoryattention mechanism)的日光温室环境预测模型。首先,通过温室物联网数据采集系统获取温室内外环境数据;其次,使用皮尔逊相关性分析法筛选出强相关性因子;最后,构建环境特征时间序列矩阵输入模型进行温室环境预测。对日光温室的室内温度、室内湿度、光照强度和土壤湿度4种环境因子的预测,SSA-LSTM-Attention模型的平均拟合指数达到了97.9%。相较于反向传播神经网络(back propagation neural network,BP)、门控循环单元(gate recurrent unit,GRU)、长短期记忆神经网络(long short term memory,LSTM)和LSTM-Attention(long short-term memory-attention mechanism)模型,分别提高8.1、4.1、3.5、3.0个百分点;平均绝对百分比误差为2.6%,分别降低6.5、3.2、2.8、2.5个百分点。试验结果表明,通过利用SSA自动优化LSTM-Attention模型的超参数,提高了模型预测精度,为日光温室环境超前调控提供了有效的数据支持。 展开更多
关键词 日光温室 麻雀搜索算法 长短期记忆网络 注意力机制 环境预测模型
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中国保险业系统性风险的评估与预警研究——基于Attention-LSTM模型的分析 被引量:1
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作者 师荣蓉 杨娅 《财经理论与实践》 北大核心 2025年第2期26-34,共9页
基于保险业系统性风险传导机制和预警机制的理论分析,利用CoVaR方法评估保险业系统性风险,从微观保险机构和宏观经济环境构建Attention-LSTM模型对保险业系统性风险进行预警分析。研究发现:当遭遇重大事件冲击时,系统重要性保险机构对... 基于保险业系统性风险传导机制和预警机制的理论分析,利用CoVaR方法评估保险业系统性风险,从微观保险机构和宏观经济环境构建Attention-LSTM模型对保险业系统性风险进行预警分析。研究发现:当遭遇重大事件冲击时,系统重要性保险机构对保险业的风险溢出增加;将金融压力指数纳入风险预警体系,其预测平均绝对误差、均方根误差和平均绝对百分比误差分别降低8.59%、7.27%和4.55%;Attention-LSTM模型能捕捉风险间的关联性和传染性,在预测准确性、泛化能力和时间稳定性方面均优于传统机器学习模型。鉴于此,应建立保险业风险分区管理体系,融合深度学习模型多维度构建保险业系统性风险预警机制。 展开更多
关键词 保险业系统性风险 评估 预警 Attention-lstm模型
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基于LSTM的舰载靶机适发窗口预报方法研究
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作者 戴勇 马智勇 +6 位作者 刘海瑞 刘浩 章雨驰 俞梦冉 李鹏 钱征华 李彤韡 《南京航空航天大学学报(自然科学版)》 北大核心 2025年第5期976-983,共8页
为提高舰载靶机发射过程中船舶运动姿态的预测精度,使用基于长短期记忆(Long short-term memory,LSTM)网络的船舶姿态预测方法。针对长时预测导致的误差累计问题,提出了改进窗口滑动法,通过对每次预测结果进行变分模态分解(Variational ... 为提高舰载靶机发射过程中船舶运动姿态的预测精度,使用基于长短期记忆(Long short-term memory,LSTM)网络的船舶姿态预测方法。针对长时预测导致的误差累计问题,提出了改进窗口滑动法,通过对每次预测结果进行变分模态分解(Variational mode decomposition,VMD)滤波,消除累积误差引起的预测结果振荡。通过有限元仿真及自主设计的船模实验平台开展波浪水池试验,采集横摇、纵摇、垂荡等关键姿态参数的时序数据。实验设置涵盖1级至5级典型海况条件。实验结果表明,该模型在升沉位移、横摇角及纵摇角预测中,均方误差(Mean squared error,MSE)最大降幅可达99.4%,MAPE降低至2.11%,验证了其工程应用的有效性。研究成果可为舰载靶机发射引导系统提供高精度的船舶运动态势预判,对提升着舰安全性具有重要工程价值。 展开更多
关键词 船舶 长短期记忆网络 姿态预测 靶机发射
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基于CoAtNet-LSTM模型的多传感器信息融合刀具磨损预测
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作者 李亚 尚轩丞 +1 位作者 王海瑞 朱贵富 《计量学报》 北大核心 2025年第10期1433-1445,共13页
基于长短时记忆网络(LSTM)与CoAtNet网络,提出了一种刀具磨损预测CoAtNet-LSTM模型。在时域、频域、时频域中提取传感器信号特征,并通过孤立森林算法进行信号特征异常值处理,再将其输入预测模型中获得刀具磨损预测值并通过Hyperband算... 基于长短时记忆网络(LSTM)与CoAtNet网络,提出了一种刀具磨损预测CoAtNet-LSTM模型。在时域、频域、时频域中提取传感器信号特征,并通过孤立森林算法进行信号特征异常值处理,再将其输入预测模型中获得刀具磨损预测值并通过Hyperband算法优化模型超参数。应用PHM2010数控铣床刀具数据集验证训练模型的预测精度。实验结果表明,该模型的决定系数相较于原CoAtNet和LSTM网络模型平均提升了12.73%、16.44%。 展开更多
关键词 几何量计量 刀具磨损 CoAtNet-lstm模型 长短期时间记忆网络 Hyperband算法 孤立森林算法
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