This study aims to assess seismic hazards and develop effective mitigation strategies for the Mentawai-Siberut region in Indonesia.The research uses quantitative and qualitative methods to analyze historical seismic d...This study aims to assess seismic hazards and develop effective mitigation strategies for the Mentawai-Siberut region in Indonesia.The research uses quantitative and qualitative methods to analyze historical seismic data,predictive models,and stakeholder perspectives.The quantitative analysis includes seismic hazard estimation using the Gutenberg-Richter formula,ground movement analysis based on GMPE,and time interval calculations to forecast future earthquakes.Qualitative methods involve Policy Network Theory to explore the roles and interactions of various stakeholders in disaster management,including government agencies,Indonesian Archipelago Youth Association(NGOs),local communities,and academic researchers.Findings reveal significant seismic activity in the area,with historical earthquakes of magnitudes 8 and 9 occurring at intervals of 18 to 232 years.Predictions suggest a potential magnitude 8 earthquake around 2083,with a megathrust event likely around 2123.The study also identifies economic costs and losses,with damage from a megathrust estimated between USD 1.5–2.5 billion and 10-20 billion,including destroyed homes and displaced populations.Challenges include infrastructure limitations,logistical constraints,and enhancing disaster preparedness and response.The study emphasizes the importance of improving infrastructure,strengthening disaster preparedness,and updating early warning systems.Effective collaboration among stakeholders and integrating local knowledge into disaster management strategies are crucial for enhancing regional resilience.Recommendations include completing infrastructure projects like the Trans-Mentawai Road,increasing community engagement,and utilizing scientific data for evidence-based policymaking.Addressing these recommendations and limitations is essential for developing a robust disaster management framework to mitigate regional seismic risks.展开更多
Alaska geology and plate tectonics have not been well understood due to an active Yakutat plate, believed to be part of the remains of an ancient Kula plate, not being acknowledged to exist in Alaska. It is positioned...Alaska geology and plate tectonics have not been well understood due to an active Yakutat plate, believed to be part of the remains of an ancient Kula plate, not being acknowledged to exist in Alaska. It is positioned throughout most of southcentral Alaska beneath the North American plate and above the NNW subducting Pacific plate. The Kula？ plate and its eastern spreading ridge were partially ＂captured＂ by the North American plate in the Paleocene. Between 63 Ma and 32 Ma, large volumes of volcanics erupted from its subducted N-S striking spreading ridge through a slab window. The eruptions stopped at 32 Ma, likely due to the Pacific plate fiat-slab subducting from the south beneath this spreading ridge. At 28 Ma, magmatism started again to the east; indicating a major shift to the east of this ＂refusing to die＂ spreading ridge. The captured Yakutat plate has also been subducting since 63 Ma to the WSW. It started to change to WSW fiat-slab subduction at 32 Ma, which stopped all subduction magmatism in W and SW Alaska by 22 Ma. The Yakutat plate subduction has again increased with the impact/joining of the coastal Yakutat terrane from the ESE about 5 Ma, resulting in the Cook Inlet Quaternary volcanism of southcentral Alaska. During the 1964 Alaska earthquake, sudden movements along the southcentral Alaska thrust faults between the Yakutat plate and the Pacific plate occurred. Specifically, the movements consisted of the Pacific plate moving NNW under the buried Yakutat plate and of the coastal Yakutat terrane, which is considered part of the Yakutat plate, thrusting WSW onto the Pacific plate. These were the two main sources of energy release for the E part of this earthquake. Only limited movement between the Yakutat plate and the North American plate occurred during this 1964 earthquake event. Buried paleopeat age dates indicate the thrust boundary between the Yakutat plate and North American plate will move in about 230 years, resulting in a more ＂continental＂ type megathrust earthquake for southcentral Alaska. There are, therefore, at least two different types ofmegathrust earthquakes occurring in southcentral Alaska： the more oceanic 1964 type and the more continental type. In addition, large ＂active＂ WSW oriented strike-slip faults are recognized in the Yakutat plate, called slice faults, which represent another earthquake hazard for the region. These slice faults also indicate important oil/gas and mineral resource locations.展开更多
Understanding the viscoelastic structure of subduction zones is essential for assessing seismic hazards and understanding subduction-zone dynamics.However,the influence of lateral variations in elastic upper-plate thi...Understanding the viscoelastic structure of subduction zones is essential for assessing seismic hazards and understanding subduction-zone dynamics.However,the influence of lateral variations in elastic upper-plate thickness(H_(c))remains poorly constrained and is often overlooked.In this study,we use two-dimensional forward viscoelastic earthquake-cycle models to fit both horizontal and vertical Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)observations.We identify a clear trade-off between locking depth(D)and H_(c)in both components.To resolve this ambiguity,we incorporate constraints from thermal models and tremor distributions along the Cascadia Subduction Zone.As a novel result extending beyond previous kinematic models,our results reveal a systematic northward increase in H_(c)from~20 km to~30 km.This trend correlates with increasing oceanic plate age and likely reflects variations in the subaccretion and wedge-cooling processes along the trench-parallel direction.In contrast,D remains relatively uniform at~10 km,consistent with previous findings.These results demonstrate the robustness of our approach for simultaneously constraining H_(c)and D,and they suggest it may be applied to other subduction zones.Lateral variations in H_(c)significantly affect crust deformation and should not be ignored in earthquake-cycle models.Accounting for these heterogeneities improves estimates of H_(c)and D and enhances our understanding of megathrust locking,seismic hazard potential,and the physical conditions controlling episodic tremor and slip events.展开更多
Two long-term slow slip events(SSEs) in Lower Cook Inlet, Alaska, were identified by Li SS et al.(2016). The earlier SSE lasted at least 9 years with M_(w) ~7.8 and had an average slip rate of ~82 mm/year. The latter ...Two long-term slow slip events(SSEs) in Lower Cook Inlet, Alaska, were identified by Li SS et al.(2016). The earlier SSE lasted at least 9 years with M_(w) ~7.8 and had an average slip rate of ~82 mm/year. The latter SSE, occurring in a similar area, lasted approximately 2 years with M_(w) ~7.2 and an average slip rate of ~91 mm/year. To test whether these SSEs triggered earthquakes near the slow slip area, we calculated the Coulomb stressing rate changes on receiver faults by using two fault geometry definitions: nodal planes of focal mechanism solutions of past earthquakes, and optimally oriented fault planes. Regions in the shallow slab(30–60 km) that experienced a significant increase in the Coulomb stressing rate due to slip by the SSEs showed an increase in seismicity rates during SSE periods. No correlation was found in the volumes that underwent a significant increase in the Coulomb stressing rate during the SSE within the crust and the intermediate slab. We modeled variations in seismicity rates by using a combination of the Coulomb stress transfer model and the framework of rate-and-state friction. Our model indicated that the SSEs increased the Coulomb stress changes on adjacent faults,thereby increasing the seismicity rates even though the ratio of the SSE stressing rate to the background stressing rate was small. Each long-term SSE in Alaska brought the megathrust updip of the SSE areas closer to failure by up to 0.1–0.15 MPa. The volumes of significant Coulomb stress changes caused by the Upper and Lower Cook Inlet SSEs did not overlap.展开更多
Seafloor irregularities influence rupture behavior along the subducting slab and in the overriding plate,thus affecting earthquake cycles.Whether seafloor irregularities increase the likelihood of large earthquakes in...Seafloor irregularities influence rupture behavior along the subducting slab and in the overriding plate,thus affecting earthquake cycles.Whether seafloor irregularities increase the likelihood of large earthquakes in a subduction zone remains contested,partially due to focus put either on fault development or on rupture pattern.Here,we simulate a subducting slab with a seafloor irregularity and the resulting deformation pattern of the overriding plate using the discrete element method.Our simulations illustrate the rupture along three major fault systems:megathrust,splay and backthrust faults.Our results show different rupture dimensions of earthquake events varying from tens to ca.140 km.Our results suggest that the recurrence interval of megathrust events with rupture length of ca.100 km is ca.140 years,which is overall comparable to the paleoseismic records at the Mentawai area of the Sumatran zone.We further propose the coseismic slip amounts decrease and interseismic slip amounts increase from the surface downwards gradually.We conclude that the presence of seafloor irregularities significantly affects rupture events along the slab as well as fault patterns in the overriding plate.展开更多
The analysis of space-time surface deformation during earthquakes reveals the variable state of stress that occurs at deep crustal levels, and this information can be used to better understand the seismic cycle. Under...The analysis of space-time surface deformation during earthquakes reveals the variable state of stress that occurs at deep crustal levels, and this information can be used to better understand the seismic cycle. Understanding the possible mechanisms that produce earthquake precursors is a key issue for earthquake prediction. In the last years, modern geodesy can map the degree of seismic coupling during the interseismic period, as well as the coseismic and postseismic slip for great earthquakes along subduction zones. Earthquakes usually occur due to mass transfer and consequent gravity variations, where these changes have been monitored for intraplate earthquakes by means of terrestrial gravity measurements. When stresses and correspondent rupture areas are large, affecting hundreds of thousands of square kilometres（as occurs in some segments along plate interface zones）, satellite gravimetry data become relevant. This is due to the higher spatial resolution of this type of data when compared to terrestrial data, and also due to their homogeneous precision and availability across the whole Earth.Satellite gravity missions as GOCE can map the Earth gravity field with unprecedented precision and resolution. We mapped geoid changes from two GOCE satellite models obtained by the direct approach,which combines data from other gravity missions as GRACE and LAGEOS regarding their best characteristics. The results show that the geoid height diminished from a year to five months before the main seismic event in the region where maximum slip occurred after the Pisagua Mw = 8.2 great megathrust earthquake. This diminution is interpreted as accelerated inland-directed interseismic mass transfer before the earthquake, coinciding with the intermediate degree of seismic coupling reported in the region. We highlight the advantage of satellite data for modelling surficial deformation related to preseismic displacements. This deformation, combined to geodetical and seismological data, could be useful for delimiting and monitoring areas of higher seismic hazard potential.展开更多
文摘This study aims to assess seismic hazards and develop effective mitigation strategies for the Mentawai-Siberut region in Indonesia.The research uses quantitative and qualitative methods to analyze historical seismic data,predictive models,and stakeholder perspectives.The quantitative analysis includes seismic hazard estimation using the Gutenberg-Richter formula,ground movement analysis based on GMPE,and time interval calculations to forecast future earthquakes.Qualitative methods involve Policy Network Theory to explore the roles and interactions of various stakeholders in disaster management,including government agencies,Indonesian Archipelago Youth Association(NGOs),local communities,and academic researchers.Findings reveal significant seismic activity in the area,with historical earthquakes of magnitudes 8 and 9 occurring at intervals of 18 to 232 years.Predictions suggest a potential magnitude 8 earthquake around 2083,with a megathrust event likely around 2123.The study also identifies economic costs and losses,with damage from a megathrust estimated between USD 1.5–2.5 billion and 10-20 billion,including destroyed homes and displaced populations.Challenges include infrastructure limitations,logistical constraints,and enhancing disaster preparedness and response.The study emphasizes the importance of improving infrastructure,strengthening disaster preparedness,and updating early warning systems.Effective collaboration among stakeholders and integrating local knowledge into disaster management strategies are crucial for enhancing regional resilience.Recommendations include completing infrastructure projects like the Trans-Mentawai Road,increasing community engagement,and utilizing scientific data for evidence-based policymaking.Addressing these recommendations and limitations is essential for developing a robust disaster management framework to mitigate regional seismic risks.
文摘Alaska geology and plate tectonics have not been well understood due to an active Yakutat plate, believed to be part of the remains of an ancient Kula plate, not being acknowledged to exist in Alaska. It is positioned throughout most of southcentral Alaska beneath the North American plate and above the NNW subducting Pacific plate. The Kula？ plate and its eastern spreading ridge were partially ＂captured＂ by the North American plate in the Paleocene. Between 63 Ma and 32 Ma, large volumes of volcanics erupted from its subducted N-S striking spreading ridge through a slab window. The eruptions stopped at 32 Ma, likely due to the Pacific plate fiat-slab subducting from the south beneath this spreading ridge. At 28 Ma, magmatism started again to the east; indicating a major shift to the east of this ＂refusing to die＂ spreading ridge. The captured Yakutat plate has also been subducting since 63 Ma to the WSW. It started to change to WSW fiat-slab subduction at 32 Ma, which stopped all subduction magmatism in W and SW Alaska by 22 Ma. The Yakutat plate subduction has again increased with the impact/joining of the coastal Yakutat terrane from the ESE about 5 Ma, resulting in the Cook Inlet Quaternary volcanism of southcentral Alaska. During the 1964 Alaska earthquake, sudden movements along the southcentral Alaska thrust faults between the Yakutat plate and the Pacific plate occurred. Specifically, the movements consisted of the Pacific plate moving NNW under the buried Yakutat plate and of the coastal Yakutat terrane, which is considered part of the Yakutat plate, thrusting WSW onto the Pacific plate. These were the two main sources of energy release for the E part of this earthquake. Only limited movement between the Yakutat plate and the North American plate occurred during this 1964 earthquake event. Buried paleopeat age dates indicate the thrust boundary between the Yakutat plate and North American plate will move in about 230 years, resulting in a more ＂continental＂ type megathrust earthquake for southcentral Alaska. There are, therefore, at least two different types ofmegathrust earthquakes occurring in southcentral Alaska： the more oceanic 1964 type and the more continental type. In addition, large ＂active＂ WSW oriented strike-slip faults are recognized in the Yakutat plate, called slice faults, which represent another earthquake hazard for the region. These slice faults also indicate important oil/gas and mineral resource locations.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2023YFF0803200)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42288201).
文摘Understanding the viscoelastic structure of subduction zones is essential for assessing seismic hazards and understanding subduction-zone dynamics.However,the influence of lateral variations in elastic upper-plate thickness(H_(c))remains poorly constrained and is often overlooked.In this study,we use two-dimensional forward viscoelastic earthquake-cycle models to fit both horizontal and vertical Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)observations.We identify a clear trade-off between locking depth(D)and H_(c)in both components.To resolve this ambiguity,we incorporate constraints from thermal models and tremor distributions along the Cascadia Subduction Zone.As a novel result extending beyond previous kinematic models,our results reveal a systematic northward increase in H_(c)from~20 km to~30 km.This trend correlates with increasing oceanic plate age and likely reflects variations in the subaccretion and wedge-cooling processes along the trench-parallel direction.In contrast,D remains relatively uniform at~10 km,consistent with previous findings.These results demonstrate the robustness of our approach for simultaneously constraining H_(c)and D,and they suggest it may be applied to other subduction zones.Lateral variations in H_(c)significantly affect crust deformation and should not be ignored in earthquake-cycle models.Accounting for these heterogeneities improves estimates of H_(c)and D and enhances our understanding of megathrust locking,seismic hazard potential,and the physical conditions controlling episodic tremor and slip events.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42104001)。
文摘Two long-term slow slip events(SSEs) in Lower Cook Inlet, Alaska, were identified by Li SS et al.(2016). The earlier SSE lasted at least 9 years with M_(w) ~7.8 and had an average slip rate of ~82 mm/year. The latter SSE, occurring in a similar area, lasted approximately 2 years with M_(w) ~7.2 and an average slip rate of ~91 mm/year. To test whether these SSEs triggered earthquakes near the slow slip area, we calculated the Coulomb stressing rate changes on receiver faults by using two fault geometry definitions: nodal planes of focal mechanism solutions of past earthquakes, and optimally oriented fault planes. Regions in the shallow slab(30–60 km) that experienced a significant increase in the Coulomb stressing rate due to slip by the SSEs showed an increase in seismicity rates during SSE periods. No correlation was found in the volumes that underwent a significant increase in the Coulomb stressing rate during the SSE within the crust and the intermediate slab. We modeled variations in seismicity rates by using a combination of the Coulomb stress transfer model and the framework of rate-and-state friction. Our model indicated that the SSEs increased the Coulomb stress changes on adjacent faults,thereby increasing the seismicity rates even though the ratio of the SSE stressing rate to the background stressing rate was small. Each long-term SSE in Alaska brought the megathrust updip of the SSE areas closer to failure by up to 0.1–0.15 MPa. The volumes of significant Coulomb stress changes caused by the Upper and Lower Cook Inlet SSEs did not overlap.
基金This work is Earth Observatory of Singapore contribution(No.M4430217.B50.706022)the Ministry of Science and Technology(Grant Nos.MOST 109-2116-M-008-029-MY3,MOST 110-2124-M-002-008,and MOST 110-2634-F-008-008)。
文摘Seafloor irregularities influence rupture behavior along the subducting slab and in the overriding plate,thus affecting earthquake cycles.Whether seafloor irregularities increase the likelihood of large earthquakes in a subduction zone remains contested,partially due to focus put either on fault development or on rupture pattern.Here,we simulate a subducting slab with a seafloor irregularity and the resulting deformation pattern of the overriding plate using the discrete element method.Our simulations illustrate the rupture along three major fault systems:megathrust,splay and backthrust faults.Our results show different rupture dimensions of earthquake events varying from tens to ca.140 km.Our results suggest that the recurrence interval of megathrust events with rupture length of ca.100 km is ca.140 years,which is overall comparable to the paleoseismic records at the Mentawai area of the Sumatran zone.We further propose the coseismic slip amounts decrease and interseismic slip amounts increase from the surface downwards gradually.We conclude that the presence of seafloor irregularities significantly affects rupture events along the slab as well as fault patterns in the overriding plate.
文摘The analysis of space-time surface deformation during earthquakes reveals the variable state of stress that occurs at deep crustal levels, and this information can be used to better understand the seismic cycle. Understanding the possible mechanisms that produce earthquake precursors is a key issue for earthquake prediction. In the last years, modern geodesy can map the degree of seismic coupling during the interseismic period, as well as the coseismic and postseismic slip for great earthquakes along subduction zones. Earthquakes usually occur due to mass transfer and consequent gravity variations, where these changes have been monitored for intraplate earthquakes by means of terrestrial gravity measurements. When stresses and correspondent rupture areas are large, affecting hundreds of thousands of square kilometres（as occurs in some segments along plate interface zones）, satellite gravimetry data become relevant. This is due to the higher spatial resolution of this type of data when compared to terrestrial data, and also due to their homogeneous precision and availability across the whole Earth.Satellite gravity missions as GOCE can map the Earth gravity field with unprecedented precision and resolution. We mapped geoid changes from two GOCE satellite models obtained by the direct approach,which combines data from other gravity missions as GRACE and LAGEOS regarding their best characteristics. The results show that the geoid height diminished from a year to five months before the main seismic event in the region where maximum slip occurred after the Pisagua Mw = 8.2 great megathrust earthquake. This diminution is interpreted as accelerated inland-directed interseismic mass transfer before the earthquake, coinciding with the intermediate degree of seismic coupling reported in the region. We highlight the advantage of satellite data for modelling surficial deformation related to preseismic displacements. This deformation, combined to geodetical and seismological data, could be useful for delimiting and monitoring areas of higher seismic hazard potential.
