Medium-term forecasting is an important category of electric load forecasting that covers a time span of up to one year ahead. It suits outage and maintenance planning, as well as load switching operation. We propose ...Medium-term forecasting is an important category of electric load forecasting that covers a time span of up to one year ahead. It suits outage and maintenance planning, as well as load switching operation. We propose a new methodol-ogy that uses hourly daily loads to predict the next year hourly loads, and hence predict the peak loads expected to be reached in the next coming year. The technique is based on implementing multivariable regression on previous year's hourly loads. Three regression models are investigated in this research: the linear, the polynomial, and the exponential power. The proposed models are applied to real loads of the Jordanian power system. Results obtained using the pro-posed methods showed that their performance is close and they outperform results obtained using the widely used ex-ponential regression technique. Moreover, peak load prediction has about 90% accuracy using the proposed method-ology. The methods are generic and simple and can be implemented to hourly loads of any power system. No extra in-formation other than the hourly loads is required.展开更多
Accurate Electric Load Forecasting(ELF)is crucial for optimizing production capacity,improving operational efficiency,and managing energy resources effectively.Moreover,precise ELF contributes to a smaller environment...Accurate Electric Load Forecasting(ELF)is crucial for optimizing production capacity,improving operational efficiency,and managing energy resources effectively.Moreover,precise ELF contributes to a smaller environmental footprint by reducing the risks of disruption,downtime,and waste.However,with increasingly complex energy consumption patterns driven by renewable energy integration and changing consumer behaviors,no single approach has emerged as universally effective.In response,this research presents a hybrid modeling framework that combines the strengths of Random Forest(RF)and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)models,enhanced with advanced feature selection—Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevancy and Maximum Synergy(MRMRMS)method—to produce a sparse model.Additionally,the residual patterns are analyzed to enhance forecast accuracy.High-resolution weather data from Weather Underground and historical energy consumption data from PJM for Duke Energy Ohio and Kentucky(DEO&K)are used in this application.This methodology,termed SP-RF-ARIMA,is evaluated against existing approaches;it demonstrates more than 40%reduction in mean absolute error and root mean square error compared to the second-best method.展开更多
Wind power,solar power,and electrical load forecasting are essential works to ensure the safe and stable operation of the electric power system.With the increasing permeability of new energy and the rising demand resp...Wind power,solar power,and electrical load forecasting are essential works to ensure the safe and stable operation of the electric power system.With the increasing permeability of new energy and the rising demand response load,the uncertainty on the production and load sides are both increased,bringing new challenges to the forecasting work and putting forward higher requirements to the forecasting accuracy.Most review/survey papers focus on one specific forecasting object(wind,solar,or load),a few involve the above two or three objects,but the forecasting objects are surveyed separately.Some papers predict at least two kinds of objects simultaneously to cope with the increasing uncertainty at both production and load sides.However,there is no corresponding review at present.Hence,our study provides a comprehensive review of wind,solar,and electrical load forecasting methods.Furthermore,the survey of Numerical Weather Prediction wind speed/irradiance correction methods is also included in this manuscript.Challenges and future research directions are discussed at last.展开更多
Management and efficient operations in critical infrastructures such as smart grids take huge advantage of accurate power load forecasting,which,due to its non-linear nature,remains a challenging task.Recently,deep le...Management and efficient operations in critical infrastructures such as smart grids take huge advantage of accurate power load forecasting,which,due to its non-linear nature,remains a challenging task.Recently,deep learning has emerged in the machine learning field achieving impressive performance in a vast range of tasks,from image classification to machine translation.Applications of deep learning models to the electric load forecasting problem are gaining interest among researchers as well as the industry,but a comprehensive and sound comparison among different-also traditional-architectures is not yet available in the literature.This work aims at filling the gap by reviewing and experimentally evaluating four real world datasets on the most recent trends in electric load forecasting,by contrasting deep learning architectures on short-term forecast(oneday-ahead prediction).Specifically,the focus is on feedforward and recurrent neural networks,sequence-to-sequence models and temporal convolutional neural networks along with architectural variants,which are known in the signal processing community but are novel to the load forecasting one.展开更多
Electric vehicle(EV)charging load is greatly affected by many traffic factors,such as road congestion.Accurate ultra short-term load forecasting(STLF)results for regional EV charging load are important to the scheduli...Electric vehicle(EV)charging load is greatly affected by many traffic factors,such as road congestion.Accurate ultra short-term load forecasting(STLF)results for regional EV charging load are important to the scheduling plan of regional charging load,which can be derived to realize the optimal vehicle to grid benefit.In this paper,a regional-level EV ultra STLF method is proposed and discussed.The usage degree of all charging piles is firstly defined by us based on the usage frequency of charging piles,and then constructed by our collected EV charging transactiondata in thefield.Secondly,these usagedegrees are combinedwithhistorical charging loadvalues toform the inputmatrix for the deep learning based load predictionmodel.Finally,long short-termmemory(LSTM)neural network is used to construct EV charging load forecastingmodel,which is trained by the formed inputmatrix.The comparison experiment proves that the proposed method in this paper has higher prediction accuracy compared with traditionalmethods.In addition,load characteristic index for the fluctuation of adjacent day load and adjacent week load are proposed by us,and these fluctuation factors are used to assess the prediction accuracy of the EV charging load,together with the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE).展开更多
Intelligent systems and methods such as the neural network （NN） are usually used in electric power systems for short-term electrical load forecasting. However, a vast amount of electrical load data is often redundan...Intelligent systems and methods such as the neural network （NN） are usually used in electric power systems for short-term electrical load forecasting. However, a vast amount of electrical load data is often redundant, and linearly or nonlinearly correlated with each other. Highly correlated input data can result in erroneous prediction results given out by an NN model. Besides this, the determination of the topological structure of an NN model has always been a problem for designers. This paper presents a new artificial intelligence hybrid procedure for next day electric load forecasting based on partial least squares （PLS） and NN. PLS is used for the compression of data input space, and helps to determine the structure of the NN model. The hybrid PLS-NN model can be used to predict hourly electric load on weekdays and weekends. The advantage of this methodology is that the hybrid model can provide faster convergence and more precise prediction results in comparison with abductive networks algorithm. Extensive testing on the electrical load data of the Puget power utility in the USA confirms the validity of the proposed approach.展开更多
Electric load forecasting has been a major area of research in the last decade since the production of accurate short-term forecasts for electricity loads has proven to be a key to success for many of the decision mak...Electric load forecasting has been a major area of research in the last decade since the production of accurate short-term forecasts for electricity loads has proven to be a key to success for many of the decision makers in the energy sector, from power generation to operation of the system. The objective of this research is to analyze the capacity of the MLP （multilayer perceptron neural network） versus SOM （self-organizing map neural network） for short-term load forecasting. The MLP is one of the most commonly used networks. It can be used for classification problems, model construction, series forecasting and discrete control. On the other hand, the SOM is a type of artificial neural network that is trained using unsupervised data to produce a low-dimensional, discretized representation of an input space of training samples in a cell map. Historical data of real global load demand were used for the research. Both neural models provide good prediction results, but the results obtained with the SOM maps are markedly better Also the main advantage of SOM maps is that they reach good results as a network unsupervised. It is much easier to train and interpret the results.展开更多
Increasing energy demands due to factors such as population,globalization,and industrialization has led to increased challenges for existing energy infrastructure.Efficient ways of energy generation and energy consump...Increasing energy demands due to factors such as population,globalization,and industrialization has led to increased challenges for existing energy infrastructure.Efficient ways of energy generation and energy consumption like smart grids and smart homes are implemented to face these challenges with reliable,cheap,and easily available sources of energy.Grid integration of renewable energy and other clean distributed generation is increasing continuously to reduce carbon and other air pollutants emissions.But the integration of distributed energy sources and increase in electric demand enhance instability in the grid.Short-term electrical load forecasting reduces the grid fluctuation and enhances the robustness and power quality of the grid.Electrical load forecasting in advance on the basic historical data modelling plays a crucial role in peak electrical demand control,reinforcement of the grid demand,and generation balancing with cost reduction.But accurate forecasting of electrical data is a very challenging task due to the nonstationary and nonlinearly nature of the data.Machine learning and artificial intelligence have recognized more accurate and reliable load forecastingmethods based on historical load data.The purpose of this study is to model the electrical load of Jajpur,Orissa Grid for forecasting of load using regression type machine learning algorithms Gaussian process regression(GPR).The historical electrical data and whether data of Jajpur is taken for modelling and simulation and the data is decided in such a way that the model will be considered to learn the connection among past,current,and future dependent variables,factors,and the relationship among data.Based on this modelling of data the network will be able to forecast the peak load of the electric grid one day ahead.The study is very helpful in grid stability and peak load control management.展开更多
In recent years, Rwanda’s rapid economic development has created the “Rwanda Africa Wonder”, but it has also led to a substantial increase in energy consumption with the ambitious goal of reaching universal access ...In recent years, Rwanda’s rapid economic development has created the “Rwanda Africa Wonder”, but it has also led to a substantial increase in energy consumption with the ambitious goal of reaching universal access by 2024. Meanwhile, on the basis of the rapid and dynamic connection of new households, there is uncertainty about generating, importing, and exporting energy whichever imposes a significant barrier. Long-Term Load Forecasting (LTLF) will be a key to the country’s utility plan to examine the dynamic electrical load demand growth patterns and facilitate long-term planning for better and more accurate power system master plan expansion. However, a Support Vector Machine (SVM) for long-term electric load forecasting is presented in this paper for accurate load mix planning. Considering that an individual forecasting model usually cannot work properly for LTLF, a hybrid Q-SVM will be introduced to improve forecasting accuracy. Finally, effectively assess model performance and efficiency, error metrics, and model benchmark parameters there assessed. The case study demonstrates that the new strategy is quite useful to improve LTLF accuracy. The historical electric load data of Rwanda Energy Group (REG), a national utility company from 1998 to 2020 was used to test the forecast model. The simulation results demonstrate the proposed algorithm enhanced better forecasting accuracy.展开更多
The spatial-temporal distribution of charging loads for electric vehicles is influenced by multiple factors,Nowadays,the accuracy of the forecasts needs to be improved and the completeness of the modeling is relativel...The spatial-temporal distribution of charging loads for electric vehicles is influenced by multiple factors,Nowadays,the accuracy of the forecasts needs to be improved and the completeness of the modeling is relatively lacking.Therefore,this paper proposes a method for modeling the charging load of electric vehicles based on the influence of multiple factors.First,an in-depth analysis of the factors affecting the charging load of electric vehicles was conducted.Then,a model of electric vehicle electricity consumption per unit kilometer was constructed based on the influencing factors.Next,the electric vehicle,the charging station,the traffic network and the grid are modeled separately.In addition,a unified model of vehicle-station-road-network was constructed through the interaction and coupling of information between the models.Finally,the spatial-temporal distribution of electric vehicle charging loads was simulated using real data from a region.The study shows that the model is able to simulate the charging load of electric vehicles more accurately.Different traffic flows and areas have a significant impact on the charging load distribution.展开更多
This paper presents an artificial neural network, ANN, based approach for estimating short-term wholesale electricity prices using past price and demand data. The objective is to utilize the piecewise continuous na-tu...This paper presents an artificial neural network, ANN, based approach for estimating short-term wholesale electricity prices using past price and demand data. The objective is to utilize the piecewise continuous na-ture of electricity prices on the time domain by clustering the input data into time ranges where the variation trends are maintained. Due to the imprecise nature of cluster boundaries a fuzzy inference technique is em-ployed to handle data that lies at the intersections. As a necessary step in forecasting prices the anticipated electricity demand at the target time is estimated first using a separate ANN. The Australian New-South Wales electricity market data was used to test the system. The developed system shows considerable im-provement in performance compared with approaches that regard price data as a single continuous time se-ries, achieving MAPE of less than 2% for hours with steady prices and 8% for the clusters covering time pe-riods with price spikes.展开更多
Electric vehicles(EVs)are expected to be key nodes connecting transportation-electricity-communication networks.Advanced automotive electronics technologies enhance EVs’perception,computing,and communication capacity...Electric vehicles(EVs)are expected to be key nodes connecting transportation-electricity-communication networks.Advanced automotive electronics technologies enhance EVs’perception,computing,and communication capacity,which in turn can boost the operational efficiency of intelligent transportation systems(ITSs).EVs couple the ITS to the power system,providing a promising solution to charging congestion and transformer overload via navigation and forecasting approaches.This study proposes a privacy-preserving EV charging situation awareness framework and method to forecast the ultra-short-term load of charging stations.The proposed method only relies on public information from commercial service providers.In the case study,data are powered by the Baidu LBS cloud and EV-SGCC platform,and the experiment is conducted within an area of Pudong New District in Shanghai.Based on the results,the charging load of charging stations can be adequately forecasted more than 1 min ahead with low communication and computing power requirements.This research provides the basis for further studies on operation optimization and electricity market transaction of charging stations.展开更多
At present,the large-scale access to electric vehicles(EVs)is exerting considerable pressure on the distribution network.Hence,it is particularly important to analyze the capacity of the distribution network to accomm...At present,the large-scale access to electric vehicles(EVs)is exerting considerable pressure on the distribution network.Hence,it is particularly important to analyze the capacity of the distribution network to accommodate EVs.To this end,we propose a method for analyzing the EV capacity of the distribution network by considering the composition of the conventional load.First,the analysis and pretreatment methods for the distribution network architecture and conventional load are proposed.Second,the charging behavior of an EVis simulated by combining the Monte Carlo method and the trip chain theory.After obtaining the temporal and spatial distribution of the EV charging load,themethod of distribution according to the proportion of the same type of conventional load among the nodes is adopted to integrate the EV charging load with the conventional load of the distribution network.By adjusting the EV ownership,the EV capacity in the distribution network is analyzed and solved on the basis of the following indices:node voltage,branch current,and transformer capacity.Finally,by considering the 10-kV distribution network in some areas of an actual city as an example,we show that the proposed analysis method can obtain a more reasonable number of EVs to be accommodated in the distribution network.展开更多
Electrical load forecasting is very crucial for electrical power systems’planning and operation.Both electrical buildings’load demand and meteorological datasets may contain hidden patterns that are required to be i...Electrical load forecasting is very crucial for electrical power systems’planning and operation.Both electrical buildings’load demand and meteorological datasets may contain hidden patterns that are required to be investigated and studied to show their potential impact on load forecasting.The meteorological data are analyzed in this study through different data mining techniques aiming to predict the electrical load demand of a factory located in Riyadh,Saudi Arabia.The factory load and meteorological data used in this study are recorded hourly between 2016 and 2017.These data are provided by King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy and Saudi Electricity Company at a site located in Riyadh.After applying the data pre-processing techniques to prepare the data,different machine learning algorithms,namely Artificial Neural Network and Support Vector Regression(SVR),are applied and compared to predict the factory load.In addition,for the sake of selecting the optimal set of features,13 different combinations of features are investigated in this study.The outcomes of this study emphasize selecting the optimal set of features as more features may add complexity to the learning process.Finally,the SVR algorithm with six features provides the most accurate prediction values to predict the factory load.展开更多
Studies to enhance the management of electrical energy have gained considerable momentum in recent years. The question of how much energy will be needed in households is a pressing issue as it allows the management pl...Studies to enhance the management of electrical energy have gained considerable momentum in recent years. The question of how much energy will be needed in households is a pressing issue as it allows the management plan of the available resources at the power grids and consumer levels. A non-intrusive inference process can be adopted to predict the amount of energy required by appliances. In this study, an inference process of appliance consumption based on temporal and environmental factors used as a soft sensor is proposed. First, a study of the correlation between the electrical and environmental variables is presented. Then, a resampling process is applied to the initial data set to generate three other subsets of data. All the subsets were evaluated to deduce the adequate granularity for the prediction of the energy demand. Then, a cloud-assisted deep neural network model is designed to forecast short-term energy consumption in a residential area while preserving user privacy. The solution is applied to the consumption data of four appliances elected from a set of real household power data. The experiment results show that the proposed framework is effective for estimating consumption with convincing accuracy.展开更多
Lately,in modern smart power grids,energy demand for accurate forecast of electricity is gaining attention,with increased interest of research.This is due to the fact that a good energy demand forecast would lead to p...Lately,in modern smart power grids,energy demand for accurate forecast of electricity is gaining attention,with increased interest of research.This is due to the fact that a good energy demand forecast would lead to proper responses for electricity demand.In addition,proper energy demand forecast would ensure efficient planning of the electricity industry and is critical in the scheduling of the power grid capacity and management of the entire power network.As most power systems are been deregulated and with the rapid introduction and development of smart-metering technologies in Oman,new opportunities may arise considering the efficiency and reliability of the power system;like price-based demand response programs.These programs could either be a large scale for household,commercial or industrial users.However,excellent demand forecasting models are crucial for the deployment of these smart metering in the power grid based on good knowledge of the electricity market structure.Consequently,in this paper,an overview of the Oman regulatory regime,financial mechanism,price control,and distribution system security standard were presented.More so,the energy demand forecast in Oman was analysed,using the econometric model to forecasts its energy peak demand.The energy econometric analysis in this study describes the relationship between the growth of historical electricity consumption and macro-economic parameters(by region,and by tariff),considering a case study of Mazoon Electricity Distribution Company(MZEC),which is one of the major power distribution companies in Oman,for effective energy demand in the power grid.展开更多
Minimax probability machine regression （MPMR） was proposed for chaotic load time series global prediction. In MPMR, regression function maximizes the minimum probability that future predication will be within an ε ...Minimax probability machine regression （MPMR） was proposed for chaotic load time series global prediction. In MPMR, regression function maximizes the minimum probability that future predication will be within an ε to the true regression function. After exploring the principle of MPMR, and verifying the chaotic property of the load series from a certain power system, one-day-ahead predictions for 24 time points next day wcre done with MPMR. Thc results demonstrate that MPMP has satisfactory prediction efficiency. Kernel function shape parameter and regression tube value may influence the MPMR-based system performance. In the experiments, cross validation was used to choose the two parameters.展开更多
Electric vehicles(EVs)are a sustainable mode of transportation,significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions.The development of EV charging stations is crucial for supporting the growing number of EVs and integratin...Electric vehicles(EVs)are a sustainable mode of transportation,significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions.The development of EV charging stations is crucial for supporting the growing number of EVs and integrating them into smart grid infrastructure.Efficient use of these stations requires optimized energy management and accurate forecasting of EV charging behaviors.However,forecasting accuracy is often hindered by missing data due to connectivity issues and equipment failures.To address these challenges,this study introduces a novel data imputation method ResiDualNet(Residual Dual BiLSTM-CNN Path Network),which is a residual sequence-to-sequence technique for imputing missing EV charging data.This model effectively captures underlying temporal and long-term dependencies,demonstrating strong performance across various scenarios.We compare our proposed model with two commonly used imputation methods KNN and Mean Imputation and one generative model,Generative Adversarial Network(GAN),across four different EV charging datasets.Experimental results demonstrate that our model significantly outperforms the others,showing an average improvement of 82%in terms of root mean squared error(RMSE)across all datasets.To further assess the effectiveness of our imputation model,we utilize three cutting-edge and newly introduced forecasting models:Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory(BiLSTM),Mogrifier LSTM,and Sample Convolution and Interaction Network(SCINet)to predict EV charging load.The results indicate that SCINet outperforms the other forecasting techniques.Moreover,for SCINet,the dataset imputed by our proposed model performs second best after the real dataset,confirming the effectiveness of our imputation approach in improving forecasting accuracy for EV charging data.The complete source code is provided in the following repository:https://github.com/fffahim/ResiDualNet.git.展开更多
For the implementation of power market in China,medium-and Iong-term security checks are essential for bilateral transactions,of which the electricity quantity that constitutes the generation feasible region(GFR)is th...For the implementation of power market in China,medium-and Iong-term security checks are essential for bilateral transactions,of which the electricity quantity that constitutes the generation feasible region(GFR)is the target.However,uncertainties from load forecasting errors and transmission contingencies are threats to medium-and Iong-term electricity tradi ng in terms of their in flue nces on the GFR.In this paper,we prese nt a graphic distortio n pattern in a typical threegenerator system using the Monte Carlo method and projection theory based on security constrained economic dispatch.The underlying potential risk to GFR from uncertainties is clearly visualized,and their impact characteristics are discussed.A case study on detailed GFR distortion was included to dem on strate the effectiveness of this visualization model.The result implies that a small uncertainty could distort the GFR to a remarkable extent and that different line-contingency precipitates disparate the GFR distortion patterns,thereby eliciting great emphasis on load forecasting and line reliability in electricity transacti ons.展开更多
文摘Medium-term forecasting is an important category of electric load forecasting that covers a time span of up to one year ahead. It suits outage and maintenance planning, as well as load switching operation. We propose a new methodol-ogy that uses hourly daily loads to predict the next year hourly loads, and hence predict the peak loads expected to be reached in the next coming year. The technique is based on implementing multivariable regression on previous year's hourly loads. Three regression models are investigated in this research: the linear, the polynomial, and the exponential power. The proposed models are applied to real loads of the Jordanian power system. Results obtained using the pro-posed methods showed that their performance is close and they outperform results obtained using the widely used ex-ponential regression technique. Moreover, peak load prediction has about 90% accuracy using the proposed method-ology. The methods are generic and simple and can be implemented to hourly loads of any power system. No extra in-formation other than the hourly loads is required.
基金supported by the Startup Grant(PG18929)awarded to F.Shokoohi.
文摘Accurate Electric Load Forecasting(ELF)is crucial for optimizing production capacity,improving operational efficiency,and managing energy resources effectively.Moreover,precise ELF contributes to a smaller environmental footprint by reducing the risks of disruption,downtime,and waste.However,with increasingly complex energy consumption patterns driven by renewable energy integration and changing consumer behaviors,no single approach has emerged as universally effective.In response,this research presents a hybrid modeling framework that combines the strengths of Random Forest(RF)and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)models,enhanced with advanced feature selection—Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevancy and Maximum Synergy(MRMRMS)method—to produce a sparse model.Additionally,the residual patterns are analyzed to enhance forecast accuracy.High-resolution weather data from Weather Underground and historical energy consumption data from PJM for Duke Energy Ohio and Kentucky(DEO&K)are used in this application.This methodology,termed SP-RF-ARIMA,is evaluated against existing approaches;it demonstrates more than 40%reduction in mean absolute error and root mean square error compared to the second-best method.
基金supported by China Three Gorges Corporation(Key technology research and demonstration application of large-scale source-net-load-storage integration under the vision of carbon neutrality)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(2020MS021).
文摘Wind power,solar power,and electrical load forecasting are essential works to ensure the safe and stable operation of the electric power system.With the increasing permeability of new energy and the rising demand response load,the uncertainty on the production and load sides are both increased,bringing new challenges to the forecasting work and putting forward higher requirements to the forecasting accuracy.Most review/survey papers focus on one specific forecasting object(wind,solar,or load),a few involve the above two or three objects,but the forecasting objects are surveyed separately.Some papers predict at least two kinds of objects simultaneously to cope with the increasing uncertainty at both production and load sides.However,there is no corresponding review at present.Hence,our study provides a comprehensive review of wind,solar,and electrical load forecasting methods.Furthermore,the survey of Numerical Weather Prediction wind speed/irradiance correction methods is also included in this manuscript.Challenges and future research directions are discussed at last.
基金Innosuisse-Schweizerische Agentur für Innovationsförderung,Grant/Award Number:1155002544。
文摘Management and efficient operations in critical infrastructures such as smart grids take huge advantage of accurate power load forecasting,which,due to its non-linear nature,remains a challenging task.Recently,deep learning has emerged in the machine learning field achieving impressive performance in a vast range of tasks,from image classification to machine translation.Applications of deep learning models to the electric load forecasting problem are gaining interest among researchers as well as the industry,but a comprehensive and sound comparison among different-also traditional-architectures is not yet available in the literature.This work aims at filling the gap by reviewing and experimentally evaluating four real world datasets on the most recent trends in electric load forecasting,by contrasting deep learning architectures on short-term forecast(oneday-ahead prediction).Specifically,the focus is on feedforward and recurrent neural networks,sequence-to-sequence models and temporal convolutional neural networks along with architectural variants,which are known in the signal processing community but are novel to the load forecasting one.
基金supported by National Key R&D Program of China(No.2021YFB2601602).
文摘Electric vehicle(EV)charging load is greatly affected by many traffic factors,such as road congestion.Accurate ultra short-term load forecasting(STLF)results for regional EV charging load are important to the scheduling plan of regional charging load,which can be derived to realize the optimal vehicle to grid benefit.In this paper,a regional-level EV ultra STLF method is proposed and discussed.The usage degree of all charging piles is firstly defined by us based on the usage frequency of charging piles,and then constructed by our collected EV charging transactiondata in thefield.Secondly,these usagedegrees are combinedwithhistorical charging loadvalues toform the inputmatrix for the deep learning based load predictionmodel.Finally,long short-termmemory(LSTM)neural network is used to construct EV charging load forecastingmodel,which is trained by the formed inputmatrix.The comparison experiment proves that the proposed method in this paper has higher prediction accuracy compared with traditionalmethods.In addition,load characteristic index for the fluctuation of adjacent day load and adjacent week load are proposed by us,and these fluctuation factors are used to assess the prediction accuracy of the EV charging load,together with the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE).
文摘Intelligent systems and methods such as the neural network （NN） are usually used in electric power systems for short-term electrical load forecasting. However, a vast amount of electrical load data is often redundant, and linearly or nonlinearly correlated with each other. Highly correlated input data can result in erroneous prediction results given out by an NN model. Besides this, the determination of the topological structure of an NN model has always been a problem for designers. This paper presents a new artificial intelligence hybrid procedure for next day electric load forecasting based on partial least squares （PLS） and NN. PLS is used for the compression of data input space, and helps to determine the structure of the NN model. The hybrid PLS-NN model can be used to predict hourly electric load on weekdays and weekends. The advantage of this methodology is that the hybrid model can provide faster convergence and more precise prediction results in comparison with abductive networks algorithm. Extensive testing on the electrical load data of the Puget power utility in the USA confirms the validity of the proposed approach.
文摘Electric load forecasting has been a major area of research in the last decade since the production of accurate short-term forecasts for electricity loads has proven to be a key to success for many of the decision makers in the energy sector, from power generation to operation of the system. The objective of this research is to analyze the capacity of the MLP （multilayer perceptron neural network） versus SOM （self-organizing map neural network） for short-term load forecasting. The MLP is one of the most commonly used networks. It can be used for classification problems, model construction, series forecasting and discrete control. On the other hand, the SOM is a type of artificial neural network that is trained using unsupervised data to produce a low-dimensional, discretized representation of an input space of training samples in a cell map. Historical data of real global load demand were used for the research. Both neural models provide good prediction results, but the results obtained with the SOM maps are markedly better Also the main advantage of SOM maps is that they reach good results as a network unsupervised. It is much easier to train and interpret the results.
文摘Increasing energy demands due to factors such as population,globalization,and industrialization has led to increased challenges for existing energy infrastructure.Efficient ways of energy generation and energy consumption like smart grids and smart homes are implemented to face these challenges with reliable,cheap,and easily available sources of energy.Grid integration of renewable energy and other clean distributed generation is increasing continuously to reduce carbon and other air pollutants emissions.But the integration of distributed energy sources and increase in electric demand enhance instability in the grid.Short-term electrical load forecasting reduces the grid fluctuation and enhances the robustness and power quality of the grid.Electrical load forecasting in advance on the basic historical data modelling plays a crucial role in peak electrical demand control,reinforcement of the grid demand,and generation balancing with cost reduction.But accurate forecasting of electrical data is a very challenging task due to the nonstationary and nonlinearly nature of the data.Machine learning and artificial intelligence have recognized more accurate and reliable load forecastingmethods based on historical load data.The purpose of this study is to model the electrical load of Jajpur,Orissa Grid for forecasting of load using regression type machine learning algorithms Gaussian process regression(GPR).The historical electrical data and whether data of Jajpur is taken for modelling and simulation and the data is decided in such a way that the model will be considered to learn the connection among past,current,and future dependent variables,factors,and the relationship among data.Based on this modelling of data the network will be able to forecast the peak load of the electric grid one day ahead.The study is very helpful in grid stability and peak load control management.
文摘In recent years, Rwanda’s rapid economic development has created the “Rwanda Africa Wonder”, but it has also led to a substantial increase in energy consumption with the ambitious goal of reaching universal access by 2024. Meanwhile, on the basis of the rapid and dynamic connection of new households, there is uncertainty about generating, importing, and exporting energy whichever imposes a significant barrier. Long-Term Load Forecasting (LTLF) will be a key to the country’s utility plan to examine the dynamic electrical load demand growth patterns and facilitate long-term planning for better and more accurate power system master plan expansion. However, a Support Vector Machine (SVM) for long-term electric load forecasting is presented in this paper for accurate load mix planning. Considering that an individual forecasting model usually cannot work properly for LTLF, a hybrid Q-SVM will be introduced to improve forecasting accuracy. Finally, effectively assess model performance and efficiency, error metrics, and model benchmark parameters there assessed. The case study demonstrates that the new strategy is quite useful to improve LTLF accuracy. The historical electric load data of Rwanda Energy Group (REG), a national utility company from 1998 to 2020 was used to test the forecast model. The simulation results demonstrate the proposed algorithm enhanced better forecasting accuracy.
基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2021YFB2501602)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52077208)。
文摘The spatial-temporal distribution of charging loads for electric vehicles is influenced by multiple factors,Nowadays,the accuracy of the forecasts needs to be improved and the completeness of the modeling is relatively lacking.Therefore,this paper proposes a method for modeling the charging load of electric vehicles based on the influence of multiple factors.First,an in-depth analysis of the factors affecting the charging load of electric vehicles was conducted.Then,a model of electric vehicle electricity consumption per unit kilometer was constructed based on the influencing factors.Next,the electric vehicle,the charging station,the traffic network and the grid are modeled separately.In addition,a unified model of vehicle-station-road-network was constructed through the interaction and coupling of information between the models.Finally,the spatial-temporal distribution of electric vehicle charging loads was simulated using real data from a region.The study shows that the model is able to simulate the charging load of electric vehicles more accurately.Different traffic flows and areas have a significant impact on the charging load distribution.
文摘This paper presents an artificial neural network, ANN, based approach for estimating short-term wholesale electricity prices using past price and demand data. The objective is to utilize the piecewise continuous na-ture of electricity prices on the time domain by clustering the input data into time ranges where the variation trends are maintained. Due to the imprecise nature of cluster boundaries a fuzzy inference technique is em-ployed to handle data that lies at the intersections. As a necessary step in forecasting prices the anticipated electricity demand at the target time is estimated first using a separate ANN. The Australian New-South Wales electricity market data was used to test the system. The developed system shows considerable im-provement in performance compared with approaches that regard price data as a single continuous time se-ries, achieving MAPE of less than 2% for hours with steady prices and 8% for the clusters covering time pe-riods with price spikes.
基金the National Natural Science Founda-tion of China(Nos.52077139 and 52167014)the Science and Technology Project of State Grid Corporation of China(No.52094021000F)the Shanghai Sailing Program(No.21YF1408600)。
文摘Electric vehicles(EVs)are expected to be key nodes connecting transportation-electricity-communication networks.Advanced automotive electronics technologies enhance EVs’perception,computing,and communication capacity,which in turn can boost the operational efficiency of intelligent transportation systems(ITSs).EVs couple the ITS to the power system,providing a promising solution to charging congestion and transformer overload via navigation and forecasting approaches.This study proposes a privacy-preserving EV charging situation awareness framework and method to forecast the ultra-short-term load of charging stations.The proposed method only relies on public information from commercial service providers.In the case study,data are powered by the Baidu LBS cloud and EV-SGCC platform,and the experiment is conducted within an area of Pudong New District in Shanghai.Based on the results,the charging load of charging stations can be adequately forecasted more than 1 min ahead with low communication and computing power requirements.This research provides the basis for further studies on operation optimization and electricity market transaction of charging stations.
基金supported by the Science and Technology Project of Zhangjiakou Power Supply Company of State Grid Jibei Co.,Ltd.(SGJBZJ00YJJS2001096).
文摘At present,the large-scale access to electric vehicles(EVs)is exerting considerable pressure on the distribution network.Hence,it is particularly important to analyze the capacity of the distribution network to accommodate EVs.To this end,we propose a method for analyzing the EV capacity of the distribution network by considering the composition of the conventional load.First,the analysis and pretreatment methods for the distribution network architecture and conventional load are proposed.Second,the charging behavior of an EVis simulated by combining the Monte Carlo method and the trip chain theory.After obtaining the temporal and spatial distribution of the EV charging load,themethod of distribution according to the proportion of the same type of conventional load among the nodes is adopted to integrate the EV charging load with the conventional load of the distribution network.By adjusting the EV ownership,the EV capacity in the distribution network is analyzed and solved on the basis of the following indices:node voltage,branch current,and transformer capacity.Finally,by considering the 10-kV distribution network in some areas of an actual city as an example,we show that the proposed analysis method can obtain a more reasonable number of EVs to be accommodated in the distribution network.
基金Funding Statement:The researchers would like to thank the Deanship of Scientific Research,Qassim University for funding the publication of this project.
文摘Electrical load forecasting is very crucial for electrical power systems’planning and operation.Both electrical buildings’load demand and meteorological datasets may contain hidden patterns that are required to be investigated and studied to show their potential impact on load forecasting.The meteorological data are analyzed in this study through different data mining techniques aiming to predict the electrical load demand of a factory located in Riyadh,Saudi Arabia.The factory load and meteorological data used in this study are recorded hourly between 2016 and 2017.These data are provided by King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy and Saudi Electricity Company at a site located in Riyadh.After applying the data pre-processing techniques to prepare the data,different machine learning algorithms,namely Artificial Neural Network and Support Vector Regression(SVR),are applied and compared to predict the factory load.In addition,for the sake of selecting the optimal set of features,13 different combinations of features are investigated in this study.The outcomes of this study emphasize selecting the optimal set of features as more features may add complexity to the learning process.Finally,the SVR algorithm with six features provides the most accurate prediction values to predict the factory load.
基金funded by NARI Group’s Independent Project of China(Grant No.524609230125)the Foundation of NARI-TECH Nanjing Control System Ltd.of China(Grant No.0914202403120020).
文摘Studies to enhance the management of electrical energy have gained considerable momentum in recent years. The question of how much energy will be needed in households is a pressing issue as it allows the management plan of the available resources at the power grids and consumer levels. A non-intrusive inference process can be adopted to predict the amount of energy required by appliances. In this study, an inference process of appliance consumption based on temporal and environmental factors used as a soft sensor is proposed. First, a study of the correlation between the electrical and environmental variables is presented. Then, a resampling process is applied to the initial data set to generate three other subsets of data. All the subsets were evaluated to deduce the adequate granularity for the prediction of the energy demand. Then, a cloud-assisted deep neural network model is designed to forecast short-term energy consumption in a residential area while preserving user privacy. The solution is applied to the consumption data of four appliances elected from a set of real household power data. The experiment results show that the proposed framework is effective for estimating consumption with convincing accuracy.
文摘Lately,in modern smart power grids,energy demand for accurate forecast of electricity is gaining attention,with increased interest of research.This is due to the fact that a good energy demand forecast would lead to proper responses for electricity demand.In addition,proper energy demand forecast would ensure efficient planning of the electricity industry and is critical in the scheduling of the power grid capacity and management of the entire power network.As most power systems are been deregulated and with the rapid introduction and development of smart-metering technologies in Oman,new opportunities may arise considering the efficiency and reliability of the power system;like price-based demand response programs.These programs could either be a large scale for household,commercial or industrial users.However,excellent demand forecasting models are crucial for the deployment of these smart metering in the power grid based on good knowledge of the electricity market structure.Consequently,in this paper,an overview of the Oman regulatory regime,financial mechanism,price control,and distribution system security standard were presented.More so,the energy demand forecast in Oman was analysed,using the econometric model to forecasts its energy peak demand.The energy econometric analysis in this study describes the relationship between the growth of historical electricity consumption and macro-economic parameters(by region,and by tariff),considering a case study of Mazoon Electricity Distribution Company(MZEC),which is one of the major power distribution companies in Oman,for effective energy demand in the power grid.
基金The research was supported by the Science & Research Foundation of East China Jiaotong University (No.23)
文摘Minimax probability machine regression （MPMR） was proposed for chaotic load time series global prediction. In MPMR, regression function maximizes the minimum probability that future predication will be within an ε to the true regression function. After exploring the principle of MPMR, and verifying the chaotic property of the load series from a certain power system, one-day-ahead predictions for 24 time points next day wcre done with MPMR. Thc results demonstrate that MPMP has satisfactory prediction efficiency. Kernel function shape parameter and regression tube value may influence the MPMR-based system performance. In the experiments, cross validation was used to choose the two parameters.
基金the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada(NSERC)a start-up grant from Concordia University,Canada.
文摘Electric vehicles(EVs)are a sustainable mode of transportation,significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions.The development of EV charging stations is crucial for supporting the growing number of EVs and integrating them into smart grid infrastructure.Efficient use of these stations requires optimized energy management and accurate forecasting of EV charging behaviors.However,forecasting accuracy is often hindered by missing data due to connectivity issues and equipment failures.To address these challenges,this study introduces a novel data imputation method ResiDualNet(Residual Dual BiLSTM-CNN Path Network),which is a residual sequence-to-sequence technique for imputing missing EV charging data.This model effectively captures underlying temporal and long-term dependencies,demonstrating strong performance across various scenarios.We compare our proposed model with two commonly used imputation methods KNN and Mean Imputation and one generative model,Generative Adversarial Network(GAN),across four different EV charging datasets.Experimental results demonstrate that our model significantly outperforms the others,showing an average improvement of 82%in terms of root mean squared error(RMSE)across all datasets.To further assess the effectiveness of our imputation model,we utilize three cutting-edge and newly introduced forecasting models:Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory(BiLSTM),Mogrifier LSTM,and Sample Convolution and Interaction Network(SCINet)to predict EV charging load.The results indicate that SCINet outperforms the other forecasting techniques.Moreover,for SCINet,the dataset imputed by our proposed model performs second best after the real dataset,confirming the effectiveness of our imputation approach in improving forecasting accuracy for EV charging data.The complete source code is provided in the following repository:https://github.com/fffahim/ResiDualNet.git.
基金the National Key R&D Program of China under Grant No.2020YFB0905900in part by the State Grid Corporation of China project“Research on inter-provincial price coupling mechanism of national unified electricity spot market”.
文摘For the implementation of power market in China,medium-and Iong-term security checks are essential for bilateral transactions,of which the electricity quantity that constitutes the generation feasible region(GFR)is the target.However,uncertainties from load forecasting errors and transmission contingencies are threats to medium-and Iong-term electricity tradi ng in terms of their in flue nces on the GFR.In this paper,we prese nt a graphic distortio n pattern in a typical threegenerator system using the Monte Carlo method and projection theory based on security constrained economic dispatch.The underlying potential risk to GFR from uncertainties is clearly visualized,and their impact characteristics are discussed.A case study on detailed GFR distortion was included to dem on strate the effectiveness of this visualization model.The result implies that a small uncertainty could distort the GFR to a remarkable extent and that different line-contingency precipitates disparate the GFR distortion patterns,thereby eliciting great emphasis on load forecasting and line reliability in electricity transacti ons.
