Weather forecasting is crucial for agriculture,transportation,and industry.Deep Learning(DL)has greatly improved the prediction accuracy.Among them,Graph Neural Networks(GNNs)excel at processing weather data by establ...Weather forecasting is crucial for agriculture,transportation,and industry.Deep Learning(DL)has greatly improved the prediction accuracy.Among them,Graph Neural Networks(GNNs)excel at processing weather data by establishing connections between regions.This allows them to understand complex patterns that traditional methods might miss.As a result,achieving more accurate predictions becomes possible.The paper reviews the role of GNNs in short-to medium-range weather forecasting.The methods are classified into three categories based on dataset differences.The paper also further identifies five promising research frontiers.These areas aim to boost forecasting precision and enhance computational efficiency.They offer valuable insights for future weather forecasting systems.展开更多
In this paper, the authors develop the earlier work of Chen Jiabin et al. (1986). In order to reduce spectral truncation errors, the reference atmosphere has been introduced in ECMWF model, and the spectrally-represen...In this paper, the authors develop the earlier work of Chen Jiabin et al. (1986). In order to reduce spectral truncation errors, the reference atmosphere has been introduced in ECMWF model, and the spectrally-represented variables, temperature, geopotential height and orography, are replaced by their deviations from the reference atmosphere. Two modified semi- implicit schemes have been proposed to alleviate the computational instability due to the introduction of reference atmosphere. Concerning the deviation of surface geopotential height from reference atmosphere, an exact computational formulation has been used instead of the approximate one in the earlier work. To re duce aliasing errors in the computations of the deviation of the surface geopotential height, a spectral fit has been used slightly to modify the original Gaussian grid-point values of orography.A series of experiments has been performed in order to assess the impact of the reference atmosphere on ECMWF medium- range forecasts at the resolution T21, T42 and T63. The results we have obtained reveal that the reference atmosphere introduced in ECMWF spectral model is generally beneficial to the mean statistical scores of 1000-200 hPa height 10-day forecasts over the globe. In the Southern Hemisphere, it is a clear improvement for T21, T42 and T63 throughout the 10-day forecast period. In the Northern Hemisphere, the impact of the reference atmos phere on anomaly correlation is positive for resolution T21, a very slightly damaging at T42 and almost neutral at T63 in the range of day 1 to day 4. Beyond the day 4 there is a clear improvement at all resolutions.展开更多
Since the initiation of the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction project by the World Meteorological Organization,the accuracy of model forecasts has improved notably.However,substantial discrepancies have been observed...Since the initiation of the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction project by the World Meteorological Organization,the accuracy of model forecasts has improved notably.However,substantial discrepancies have been observed among forecast results produced by different ensemble members when applied to South China.To enhance the accuracy of sub-seasonal forecasts in this region,it is essential to develop new methods that can effectively leverage multiple predictive models.This study introduces a weighted ensemble forecasting method based on online learning to improve forecast accuracy.We utilized ensemble forecasts from three models:the Integrated Forecasting System model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,the Climate Forecast System Version 2 model from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction,and the Beijing Climate Center-Climate Prediction System version 3 model from the China Meteorological Administration.The ensemble weights are trained using an online learning approach.The results indicate that the forecasts obtained through online learning outperform those of the original dynamical models.Compared to the simple ensemble results of the three models,the weighted ensemble model showed a stronger capability to capture temperature and precipitation patterns in South China.Therefore,this method has the potential to improve the accuracy of sub-seasonal forecasts in this region.展开更多
Wind speed is a crucial parameter affecting wind energy utilization.However,its volatility leads to time-varying power output.Herein,a novel Seq2Seq model integrating deep learning,data denoising,and a shape-aware los...Wind speed is a crucial parameter affecting wind energy utilization.However,its volatility leads to time-varying power output.Herein,a novel Seq2Seq model integrating deep learning,data denoising,and a shape-aware loss function is proposed for accurate multistep wind speed forecasting.In this model,the wind speed data is first denoised using the maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform.Next,an encoder-decoder network based on a temporal convolutional network,bidirectional gated recurrent unit,and multihead self-attention is employed for forecasting.Additionally,to enhance the ability of the model to identify temporal dynamics,a shape-aware loss function,ITILDE-Q,is employed in the model.To verify the effectiveness of the proposed model,a comparative experiment and an ablation experiment were conducted using three datasets of measured wind speeds.Three error metrics and a similarity metric were adopted for comprehensive evaluation.The experimental results showed that the proposed model consistently outperforms benchmark models in all tested forecasting scenarios,with particularly pronounced differences in performance over longer forecast horizons.Furthermore,the synergistic interaction of the three key components contributes to the extraordinary performance of the proposed model.展开更多
This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of tropical cyclone(TC)forecast performance in the western North Pacific from 2013 to 2022,based on operational forecasts issued by the China Meteorological Administratio...This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of tropical cyclone(TC)forecast performance in the western North Pacific from 2013 to 2022,based on operational forecasts issued by the China Meteorological Administration.The analysis reveals systematic improvements in both track and intensity forecasts over the decade,with distinct error characteristics observed across various forecast parameters.Track forecast errors have steadily decreased,particularly for longer lead times,while error magnitudes have increased with longer forecast lead times.Intensity forecasts show similar progressive enhancements,with maximum sustained wind speed errors decreasing by 0.26 m/s per year for 120 h forecasts.The study also identifies several key patterns in forecast performance:typhoon-grade or stronger TCs exhibit smaller track errors than week or weaker systems;intensity forecasts systematically overestimate weaker TCs while underestimating stronger systems;and spatial error distributions show greater track inaccuracies near landmasses and regional intensity biases.These findings highlight both the significant advances in TC forecasting capability achieved through improved modeling and observational systems,and the remaining challenges in predicting TC changes and landfall behavior,providing valuable benchmarks for future forecast system development.展开更多
The solar cycle(SC),a phenomenon caused by the quasi-periodic regular activities in the Sun,occurs approximately every 11 years.Intense solar activity can disrupt the Earth’s ionosphere,affecting communication and na...The solar cycle(SC),a phenomenon caused by the quasi-periodic regular activities in the Sun,occurs approximately every 11 years.Intense solar activity can disrupt the Earth’s ionosphere,affecting communication and navigation systems.Consequently,accurately predicting the intensity of the SC holds great significance,but predicting the SC involves a long-term time series,and many existing time series forecasting methods have fallen short in terms of accuracy and efficiency.The Time-series Dense Encoder model is a deep learning solution tailored for long time series prediction.Based on a multi-layer perceptron structure,it outperforms the best previously existing models in accuracy,while being efficiently trainable on general datasets.We propose a method based on this model for SC forecasting.Using a trained model,we predict the test set from SC 19 to SC 25 with an average mean absolute percentage error of 32.02,root mean square error of 30.3,mean absolute error of 23.32,and R^(2)(coefficient of determination)of 0.76,outperforming other deep learning models in terms of accuracy and training efficiency on sunspot number datasets.Subsequently,we use it to predict the peaks of SC 25 and SC 26.For SC 25,the peak time has ended,but a stronger peak is predicted for SC 26,of 199.3,within a range of 170.8-221.9,projected to occur during April 2034.展开更多
Accurate short-term electricity price forecasts are essential for market participants to optimize bidding strategies,hedge risk and plan generation schedules.By leveraging advanced data analytics and machine learning ...Accurate short-term electricity price forecasts are essential for market participants to optimize bidding strategies,hedge risk and plan generation schedules.By leveraging advanced data analytics and machine learning methods,accurate and reliable price forecasts can be achieved.This study forecasts day-ahead prices in Türkiye’s electricity market using eXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost).We benchmark XGBoost against four alternatives—Support Vector Machines(SVM),Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM),Random Forest(RF),and Gradient Boosting(GBM)—using 8760 hourly observations from 2023 provided by Energy Exchange Istanbul(EXIST).All models were trained on an identical chronological 80/20 train–test split,with hyperparameters tuned via 5-fold cross-validation on the training set.XGBoost achieved the best performance(Mean Absolute Error(MAE)=144.8 TRY/MWh,Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)=201.8 TRY/MWh,coefficient of determination(R^(2))=0.923)while training in 94 s.To enhance interpretability and identify key drivers,we employed Shapley Additive Explanations(SHAP),which highlighted a strong association between higher prices and increased natural-gas-based generation.The results provide a clear performance benchmark and practical guidance for selecting forecasting approaches in day-ahead electricity markets.展开更多
Deep learning-based methods have become alternatives to traditional numerical weather prediction systems,offering faster computation and the ability to utilize large historical datasets.However,the application of deep...Deep learning-based methods have become alternatives to traditional numerical weather prediction systems,offering faster computation and the ability to utilize large historical datasets.However,the application of deep learning to medium-range regional weather forecasting with limited data remains a significant challenge.In this work,three key solutions are proposed:(1)motivated by the need to improve model performance in data-scarce regional forecasting scenarios,the authors innovatively apply semantic segmentation models,to better capture spatiotemporal features and improve prediction accuracy;(2)recognizing the challenge of overfitting and the inability of traditional noise-based data augmentation methods to effectively enhance model robustness,a novel learnable Gaussian noise mechanism is introduced that allows the model to adaptively optimize perturbations for different locations,ensuring more effective learning;and(3)to address the issue of error accumulation in autoregressive prediction,as well as the challenge of learning difficulty and the lack of intermediate data utilization in one-shot prediction,the authors propose a cascade prediction approach that effectively resolves these problems while significantly improving model forecasting performance.The method achieves a competitive result in The East China Regional AI Medium Range Weather Forecasting Competition.Ablation experiments further validate the effectiveness of each component,highlighting their contributions to enhancing prediction performance.展开更多
Marine forecasting is critical for navigation safety and disaster prevention.However,traditional ocean numerical forecasting models are often limited by substantial errors and inadequate capture of temporal-spatial fe...Marine forecasting is critical for navigation safety and disaster prevention.However,traditional ocean numerical forecasting models are often limited by substantial errors and inadequate capture of temporal-spatial features.To address the limitations,the paper proposes a TimeXer-based numerical forecast correction model optimized by an exogenous-variable attention mechanism.The model treats target forecast values as internal variables,and incorporates historical temporal-spatial data and seven-day numerical forecast results from traditional models as external variables based on the embedding strategy of TimeXer.Using a self-attention structure,the model captures correlations between exogenous variables and target sequences,explores intrinsic multi-dimensional relationships,and subsequently corrects endogenous variables with the mined exogenous features.The model’s performance is evaluated using metrics including MSE(Mean Squared Error),MAE(Mean Absolute Error),RMSE(Root Mean Square Error),MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error),MSPE(Mean Square Percentage Error),and computational time,with TimeXer and PatchTST models serving as benchmarks.Experiment results show that the proposed model achieves lower errors and higher correction accuracy for both one-day and seven-day forecasts.展开更多
Sustainable energy systems will entail a change in the carbon intensity projections,which should be carried out in a proper manner to facilitate the smooth running of the grid and reduce greenhouse emissions.The prese...Sustainable energy systems will entail a change in the carbon intensity projections,which should be carried out in a proper manner to facilitate the smooth running of the grid and reduce greenhouse emissions.The present article outlines the TransCarbonNet,a novel hybrid deep learning framework with self-attention characteristics added to the bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory(Bi-LSTM)network to forecast the carbon intensity of the grid several days.The proposed temporal fusion model not only learns the local temporal interactions but also the long-term patterns of the carbon emission data;hence,it is able to give suitable forecasts over a period of seven days.TransCarbonNet takes advantage of a multi-head self-attention element to identify significant temporal connections,which means the Bi-LSTM element calculates sequential dependencies in both directions.Massive tests on two actual data sets indicate much improved results in comparison with the existing results,with mean relative errors of 15.3 percent and 12.7 percent,respectively.The framework has given explicable weights of attention that reveal critical periods that influence carbon intensity alterations,and informed decisions on the management of carbon sustainability.The effectiveness of the proposed solution has been validated in numerous cases of operations,and TransCarbonNet is established to be an effective tool when it comes to carbon-friendly optimization of the grid.展开更多
Predicting the behavior of renewable energy systems requires models capable of generating accurate forecasts from limited historical data,a challenge that becomes especially pronounced when commissioning new facil-iti...Predicting the behavior of renewable energy systems requires models capable of generating accurate forecasts from limited historical data,a challenge that becomes especially pronounced when commissioning new facil-ities where operational records are scarce.This review aims to synthesize recent progress in data-efficient deep learning approaches for addressing such“cold-start”forecasting problems.It primarily covers three interrelated domains—solar photovoltaic(PV),wind power,and electrical load forecasting—where data scarcity and operational variability are most critical,while also including representative studies on hydropower and carbon emission prediction to provide a broader systems perspective.To this end,we examined trends from over 150 predominantly peer-reviewed studies published between 2019 and mid-2025,highlighting advances in zero-shot and few-shot meta-learning frameworks that enable rapid model adaptation with minimal labeled data.Moreover,transfer learning approaches combined with spatiotemporal graph neural networks have been employed to transfer knowledge from existing energy assets to new,data-sparse environments,effectively capturing hidden dependencies among geographic features,meteorological dynamics,and grid structures.Synthetic data generation has further proven valuable for expanding training samples and mitigating overfitting in cold-start scenarios.In addition,large language models and explainable artificial intelligence(XAI)—notably conversational XAI systems—have been used to interpret and communicate complex model behaviors in accessible terms,fostering operator trust from the earliest deployment stages.By consolidating methodological advances,unresolved challenges,and open-source resources,this review provides a coherent overview of deep learning strategies that can shorten the data-sparse ramp-up period of new energy infrastructures and accelerate the transition toward resilient,low-carbon electricity grids.展开更多
Engineering multiscale structural hierarchies in glassy alloys enable a broad spectrum of potential applications.Metallic glasses were born in hierarchical structures from atomic-to-nanometer scales.However,the frozen...Engineering multiscale structural hierarchies in glassy alloys enable a broad spectrum of potential applications.Metallic glasses were born in hierarchical structures from atomic-to-nanometer scales.However,the frozen-in structures in traditional metallic glasses prepared by rapid quenching techniques are challenging to tailor.Here,we show that a PdNiPbulk nanostructured glass of polyamorphous interfacial structures was prepared by inert-gas condensation with a laser evaporation source,and its multiscale structures could be engineered.In-situ scattering experiment results reveal polyamorphous phase transitions occurred in the interfacial regions,which are accompanied by the evolution of medium-range order and the nanoscale heterogeneous structures during the condensation process of glassy nanoparticles under high pressure and the following heating process.Moreover,changes in the cluster connectivity resulting from repacking of the local ordering induced by pressure and temperature could be observed.The thermophysical and mechanical properties,including boson peaks,hardness,and elasticity modulus,could be changed as a function of heat-treatment parameters.Our findings would shed light on the synthesis of bulk nanostructured glassy alloys with tailorable thermodynamic and dynamical behavior as well as mechanical properties based on the understanding of metastability for polyamorphous interfacial phases.展开更多
Fe-based metallic glasses are promising functional materials for advanced magnetism and sensor fields.Tailoring magnetic performance in amorphous materials requires a thorough knowledge of the correlation between stru...Fe-based metallic glasses are promising functional materials for advanced magnetism and sensor fields.Tailoring magnetic performance in amorphous materials requires a thorough knowledge of the correlation between structural disorder and magnetic order,which remains ambiguous.Two practical difficulties remain:the first is directly observing subtle magnetic structural changes on multiple scales,and the second is precisely regulating the various amorphous states.Here we propose a novel approach to tailor the amorphous structure through the liquid-liquid phase transition.In-situ synchrotron diffraction has unraveled a medium-range ordering process dominated by edge-sharing cluster connectivity during the liquid-liquid phase transition.Moreover,nanodomains with topological order have been found to exist in composition with liquid-liquid phase transition,manifesting as hexagonal patterns in small-angle neutron scattering profiles.The liquid-liquid phase transition can induce the nanodomains to be more locally ordered,generating stronger exchange interactions due to the reduced Fe–Fe bond length and the enhanced structural order,leading to the increment of saturation magnetization.Furthermore,the increased local heterogeneity at the medium-range scale enhances the magnetic anisotropy,promoting the permeability response under applied stress and leading to a better stress-impedance effect.These experimental results pave the way to tailor the magnetic structure and performance through the liquid-liquid phase transition.展开更多
Developing ductile bulk metallic glasses(BMGs)can benefit from an in-depth understanding of the structure-property relation during plastic deformation.However,endowing BMGs with tensile ductility in BMGs needs to reve...Developing ductile bulk metallic glasses(BMGs)can benefit from an in-depth understanding of the structure-property relation during plastic deformation.However,endowing BMGs with tensile ductility in BMGs needs to reveal the response of critical structure units during deformation.Here,we report the experimental results of an in-situ synchrotron high-energy X-ray study of a Zr-based BMG under uniaxial tension after preprocessing by canning compression of the three-dimensional compressive stress state.It is revealed that the canning-compressed BMG(CC-BMG)sample has better tensile ductility and higher ultimate strength than the as-cast sample,which possesses heterogeneous and loosely packed local struc-tures on medium-range scales.The experimental results revealed two stages of plastic deformation in the CC-BMGs compared with one stage of plastic deformation in the as-cast BMG.Moreover,the shift in the first sharp diffraction peak along the tension direction for the canning-compressed sample is substan-tially more pronounced than that of the as-cast sample.Furthermore,the real-space analysis illustrates a competition mechanism between the 2-atom and 3-atom connection modes on medium-range order during the plastic deformation of the CC-BMG.Additionally,the ordering on the medium-range scale de-creases in the first plastic deformation stage but increases in the second plastic deformation stage.There-fore,a structural crossover phenomenon occurs in the CC-BMG during plastic deformation.Our results demonstrate a structure-property correlation for the CC-BMGs of heterogeneous medium-range ordered structures,which may be beneficial for endowing BMGs with ductility based on medium-range order engineering techniques.展开更多
A method of multi-spectral analysis is used to study the spectral characteristics of surface and upper-level meteorological elements over the Great Wall Station (62°12'S, 58°57'W), Antarctica and the...A method of multi-spectral analysis is used to study the spectral characteristics of surface and upper-level meteorological elements over the Great Wall Station (62°12'S, 58°57'W), Antarctica and their phasecorrelation, propagation of mean oscillation at 500hPa level in the Southern Hemisphere and their corresponding synoptic sense. the results are summed up as follows: 1. Over the sub-Antatctic zone, as in the Northern Hemisphere there generally exist quasi-weekly oscillation and quasi-biweekly oscillation. In different seasons the oscillations of meteorological elements are different: in winter season quasi-biweekly oscillation is dominant, while in summer season quasi-weekly oscillation is dominant. 2. From the Earth's surface to the lower stratosphere there is a distinct quasi-weekly oscillation at each isobaric surface, but the most intense oscillation appears at 200-300hPa, and the oscillations of height and temperature are propagated downward. 3. Both in winter and summer seasons the quasi-biweekly oscillation are propagated from west to east, and the mean velocity of its propagation is about 7-17 longtitude / day. 4. The quasi-biweekly oscillation and the quasi-weekly oscillation over the sub - Antarctic zone are closely related to the activity and intensity variation of polar vortex at 500hPa, while at 1000hPa they reflect an interaction between the circumpolar depression and the sub-tropical high. The quasi-biweekly oscillation may be a reflection of inherent oscillation of the polar vortex, where as the quasi-weekly oscillation is a result of forced oscillation by external disturbance.A large number of calculations and analysis made reveals the features of medium-range oscillation over the sub-Antarctic zone. The results are of significance for understanding the behaviour of synoptic dynamics and making the weather forecast.This work is supported by National Committee for Antarctic Research.展开更多
By the use of space-time spectral analysis and band-pass filter, some of the features of the medium-range oscillations in the summer tropical easterlies (10 S-20 N) at 200 hPa are investigated based on a two-year (198...By the use of space-time spectral analysis and band-pass filter, some of the features of the medium-range oscillations in the summer tropical easterlies (10 S-20 N) at 200 hPa are investigated based on a two-year (1980 and 1982) wind (u, v) data set for the period from May to September. Space-time power spectral analysis shows that the total energy of the westward moving waves was the largest and that of the standing waves and eastward mov ing waves was relatively small in the 200 hPa easterlies: the total energy of the eastward moving waves was m minimum at 10° N. Three kinds of the medium-range oscillations with about 50 day, 25 day and quasi-biweekly periods were found in the easterlies, which all show a remarkable interannual variations and latitudinal differences in these two years. The wave energy of zonal wind is mainly associated with the planetary waves (1-3). which all may make important contributions to the 50 day and 25 day oscillations in different years or different latitudes, The quasi-biweekly oscillation is mainly related to the synoptic waves (4-6). In equatorial region, the 50 day oscillation was dominant with a eastward phase propagation in 1982 while the dominant oscillation in 1980 was of 25 day period with a westward phase propagations in 1980. Both of them are of the mode of zonal wavenumber 1. Strong westward 50 day oscillation was found in 10° N-20° N in these two years. Regular propagations of the meridional wind 50 cay oscillation were also found in the easterlies.The 50 day and 25 day oscillation of zonal wind all demonstrate southward phase propagation over the region of the South Asia monsoon and northward phase propagation near international date line, where are the climatic mean position of the tropical upper-tropospheric easterly jet and the tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT). respectively.展开更多
In this paper, we use a spectral model for the medium-range numerical weather forecast to discuss the impact of the diurnal variation of solar radiation on the medium-range weather processes. Under the tests of two ty...In this paper, we use a spectral model for the medium-range numerical weather forecast to discuss the impact of the diurnal variation of solar radiation on the medium-range weather processes. Under the tests of two typical winter and summer cases, we find that the influences of the diurnal variation of solar radiation on summer weather are really important, especially on its rainfall, surface heat transport and 500 hPa height field. On winter weather, however, the influences are very weak.展开更多
In this paper, using the daily grid data (2.5 × 2.5) of the ECMWF / WMO, we have computed respectively the three-dimensional wave activity flux in the stages of pre-onset, prevailing and post ending of Meiyu from...In this paper, using the daily grid data (2.5 × 2.5) of the ECMWF / WMO, we have computed respectively the three-dimensional wave activity flux in the stages of pre-onset, prevailing and post ending of Meiyu from 1 to 31 July 1982. The potential vorticity field is taken as the physical quantity relating the wave activity flux to the variation of the subtropical high over the Western Pacific. It is found that the three-dimensional wave activity flux is a powerful means for diagnosis of the variation of the subtropical high over the Western Pacific: The region of the subtropical high is just the confluence area of wave energy, whose changes in intensity and range decide the variation of the subtropical high. The confluence of wave energy comes from the monsoon flow in low latitudes, the Meiyu rain belts in middle latitudes and the heating fields on the eastern side of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. The relation between these sources and the subtropical high displays the self-adjusting mechanism among members of East-Asia summer monsoon.展开更多
Marine heatwaves(MHWs),which can exert devastating socioeconomic and ecological impacts,have attracted much public interest in recent years.In this study,we evaluate the sub-seasonal forecast skill of MHWs based on th...Marine heatwaves(MHWs),which can exert devastating socioeconomic and ecological impacts,have attracted much public interest in recent years.In this study,we evaluate the sub-seasonal forecast skill of MHWs based on the Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology Climate Forecast System version 1.1(NUIST CFS1.1)and analyze the related physical processes.Our results show that the model can accurately forecast the occurrence of MHWs on a global scale out to a lead time of 25 days.Notably,even at lead times of 51–55 days,the forecast skill in most tropical regions,as well as in the northeastern and southeastern Pacific,is superior to both random forecasts and persistence forecasts.Accurate predictions of sea level pressure,zonal currents,and mixed-layer depth are important for MHW forecasting.Furthermore,we also conduct forecast skill assessments for two well-documented MHW events.Due to its ability to correctly forecast the changes in heat flux anomalies at a lead time of 25 days,the model can accurately forecast the strong MHW event that occurred in the South China Sea in May–October 2020.However,the forecasting results were less than optimal for the strong MHW event that occurred along the Australian west coast in January–April 2011.Although the model accurately forecasts its occurrence,the forecast of its intensity is poor.Additionally,when the lead time exceeds 10 days,forecasts of the relevant physical processes of this MHW event are also inaccurate.展开更多
Accurate short-term wind power forecast technique plays a crucial role in maintaining the safety and economic efficiency of smart grids.Although numerous studies have employed various methods to forecast wind power,th...Accurate short-term wind power forecast technique plays a crucial role in maintaining the safety and economic efficiency of smart grids.Although numerous studies have employed various methods to forecast wind power,there remains a research gap in leveraging swarm intelligence algorithms to optimize the hyperparameters of the Transformer model for wind power prediction.To improve the accuracy of short-term wind power forecast,this paper proposes a hybrid short-term wind power forecast approach named STL-IAOA-iTransformer,which is based on seasonal and trend decomposition using LOESS(STL)and iTransformer model optimized by improved arithmetic optimization algorithm(IAOA).First,to fully extract the power data features,STL is used to decompose the original data into components with less redundant information.The extracted components as well as the weather data are then input into iTransformer for short-term wind power forecast.The final predicted short-term wind power curve is obtained by combining the predicted components.To improve the model accuracy,IAOA is employed to optimize the hyperparameters of iTransformer.The proposed approach is validated using real-generation data from different seasons and different power stations inNorthwest China,and ablation experiments have been conducted.Furthermore,to validate the superiority of the proposed approach under different wind characteristics,real power generation data fromsouthwestChina are utilized for experiments.Thecomparative results with the other six state-of-the-art prediction models in experiments show that the proposed model well fits the true value of generation series and achieves high prediction accuracy.展开更多
基金supported by Key Laboratory of Smart Earth(KF2023ZD03-05)CMA Innovative and Development Program(CXFZ.20231035)+2 种基金National Key R&D Program of China(No.2021ZD0111902)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.62472014,U21B2038)the Scientific and Technological Project of China Meteorological Administration(CMAJBGS202505).
文摘Weather forecasting is crucial for agriculture,transportation,and industry.Deep Learning(DL)has greatly improved the prediction accuracy.Among them,Graph Neural Networks(GNNs)excel at processing weather data by establishing connections between regions.This allows them to understand complex patterns that traditional methods might miss.As a result,achieving more accurate predictions becomes possible.The paper reviews the role of GNNs in short-to medium-range weather forecasting.The methods are classified into three categories based on dataset differences.The paper also further identifies five promising research frontiers.These areas aim to boost forecasting precision and enhance computational efficiency.They offer valuable insights for future weather forecasting systems.
文摘In this paper, the authors develop the earlier work of Chen Jiabin et al. (1986). In order to reduce spectral truncation errors, the reference atmosphere has been introduced in ECMWF model, and the spectrally-represented variables, temperature, geopotential height and orography, are replaced by their deviations from the reference atmosphere. Two modified semi- implicit schemes have been proposed to alleviate the computational instability due to the introduction of reference atmosphere. Concerning the deviation of surface geopotential height from reference atmosphere, an exact computational formulation has been used instead of the approximate one in the earlier work. To re duce aliasing errors in the computations of the deviation of the surface geopotential height, a spectral fit has been used slightly to modify the original Gaussian grid-point values of orography.A series of experiments has been performed in order to assess the impact of the reference atmosphere on ECMWF medium- range forecasts at the resolution T21, T42 and T63. The results we have obtained reveal that the reference atmosphere introduced in ECMWF spectral model is generally beneficial to the mean statistical scores of 1000-200 hPa height 10-day forecasts over the globe. In the Southern Hemisphere, it is a clear improvement for T21, T42 and T63 throughout the 10-day forecast period. In the Northern Hemisphere, the impact of the reference atmos phere on anomaly correlation is positive for resolution T21, a very slightly damaging at T42 and almost neutral at T63 in the range of day 1 to day 4. Beyond the day 4 there is a clear improvement at all resolutions.
基金Science and Technology Development Program of the“Taihu Light”(K20231023)CMA Numerical Weather Prediction R&D Project(TCYF2024QH007)+1 种基金“Qing Lan”Project of Jiangsu Province for C.H.LUWuxi University Research Start-up Fund for Introduced Talents(2023r037)。
文摘Since the initiation of the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction project by the World Meteorological Organization,the accuracy of model forecasts has improved notably.However,substantial discrepancies have been observed among forecast results produced by different ensemble members when applied to South China.To enhance the accuracy of sub-seasonal forecasts in this region,it is essential to develop new methods that can effectively leverage multiple predictive models.This study introduces a weighted ensemble forecasting method based on online learning to improve forecast accuracy.We utilized ensemble forecasts from three models:the Integrated Forecasting System model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,the Climate Forecast System Version 2 model from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction,and the Beijing Climate Center-Climate Prediction System version 3 model from the China Meteorological Administration.The ensemble weights are trained using an online learning approach.The results indicate that the forecasts obtained through online learning outperform those of the original dynamical models.Compared to the simple ensemble results of the three models,the weighted ensemble model showed a stronger capability to capture temperature and precipitation patterns in South China.Therefore,this method has the potential to improve the accuracy of sub-seasonal forecasts in this region.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52171284)。
文摘Wind speed is a crucial parameter affecting wind energy utilization.However,its volatility leads to time-varying power output.Herein,a novel Seq2Seq model integrating deep learning,data denoising,and a shape-aware loss function is proposed for accurate multistep wind speed forecasting.In this model,the wind speed data is first denoised using the maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform.Next,an encoder-decoder network based on a temporal convolutional network,bidirectional gated recurrent unit,and multihead self-attention is employed for forecasting.Additionally,to enhance the ability of the model to identify temporal dynamics,a shape-aware loss function,ITILDE-Q,is employed in the model.To verify the effectiveness of the proposed model,a comparative experiment and an ablation experiment were conducted using three datasets of measured wind speeds.Three error metrics and a similarity metric were adopted for comprehensive evaluation.The experimental results showed that the proposed model consistently outperforms benchmark models in all tested forecasting scenarios,with particularly pronounced differences in performance over longer forecast horizons.Furthermore,the synergistic interaction of the three key components contributes to the extraordinary performance of the proposed model.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China [grant number 2023YFC3008004]。
文摘This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of tropical cyclone(TC)forecast performance in the western North Pacific from 2013 to 2022,based on operational forecasts issued by the China Meteorological Administration.The analysis reveals systematic improvements in both track and intensity forecasts over the decade,with distinct error characteristics observed across various forecast parameters.Track forecast errors have steadily decreased,particularly for longer lead times,while error magnitudes have increased with longer forecast lead times.Intensity forecasts show similar progressive enhancements,with maximum sustained wind speed errors decreasing by 0.26 m/s per year for 120 h forecasts.The study also identifies several key patterns in forecast performance:typhoon-grade or stronger TCs exhibit smaller track errors than week or weaker systems;intensity forecasts systematically overestimate weaker TCs while underestimating stronger systems;and spatial error distributions show greater track inaccuracies near landmasses and regional intensity biases.These findings highlight both the significant advances in TC forecasting capability achieved through improved modeling and observational systems,and the remaining challenges in predicting TC changes and landfall behavior,providing valuable benchmarks for future forecast system development.
基金supported by the Academic Research Projects of Beijing Union University(ZK20202204)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(12250005,12073040,12273059,11973056,12003051,11573037,12073041,11427901,11572005,11611530679 and 12473052)+1 种基金the Strategic Priority Research Program of the China Academy of Sciences(XDB0560000,XDA15052200,XDB09040200,XDA15010700,XDB0560301,and XDA15320102)the Chinese Meridian Project(CMP).
文摘The solar cycle(SC),a phenomenon caused by the quasi-periodic regular activities in the Sun,occurs approximately every 11 years.Intense solar activity can disrupt the Earth’s ionosphere,affecting communication and navigation systems.Consequently,accurately predicting the intensity of the SC holds great significance,but predicting the SC involves a long-term time series,and many existing time series forecasting methods have fallen short in terms of accuracy and efficiency.The Time-series Dense Encoder model is a deep learning solution tailored for long time series prediction.Based on a multi-layer perceptron structure,it outperforms the best previously existing models in accuracy,while being efficiently trainable on general datasets.We propose a method based on this model for SC forecasting.Using a trained model,we predict the test set from SC 19 to SC 25 with an average mean absolute percentage error of 32.02,root mean square error of 30.3,mean absolute error of 23.32,and R^(2)(coefficient of determination)of 0.76,outperforming other deep learning models in terms of accuracy and training efficiency on sunspot number datasets.Subsequently,we use it to predict the peaks of SC 25 and SC 26.For SC 25,the peak time has ended,but a stronger peak is predicted for SC 26,of 199.3,within a range of 170.8-221.9,projected to occur during April 2034.
文摘Accurate short-term electricity price forecasts are essential for market participants to optimize bidding strategies,hedge risk and plan generation schedules.By leveraging advanced data analytics and machine learning methods,accurate and reliable price forecasts can be achieved.This study forecasts day-ahead prices in Türkiye’s electricity market using eXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost).We benchmark XGBoost against four alternatives—Support Vector Machines(SVM),Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM),Random Forest(RF),and Gradient Boosting(GBM)—using 8760 hourly observations from 2023 provided by Energy Exchange Istanbul(EXIST).All models were trained on an identical chronological 80/20 train–test split,with hyperparameters tuned via 5-fold cross-validation on the training set.XGBoost achieved the best performance(Mean Absolute Error(MAE)=144.8 TRY/MWh,Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)=201.8 TRY/MWh,coefficient of determination(R^(2))=0.923)while training in 94 s.To enhance interpretability and identify key drivers,we employed Shapley Additive Explanations(SHAP),which highlighted a strong association between higher prices and increased natural-gas-based generation.The results provide a clear performance benchmark and practical guidance for selecting forecasting approaches in day-ahead electricity markets.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 62376217]the Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by CAST[grant number 2023QNRC001]the Joint Research Project for Meteorological Capacity Improvement[grant number 24NLTSZ003]。
文摘Deep learning-based methods have become alternatives to traditional numerical weather prediction systems,offering faster computation and the ability to utilize large historical datasets.However,the application of deep learning to medium-range regional weather forecasting with limited data remains a significant challenge.In this work,three key solutions are proposed:(1)motivated by the need to improve model performance in data-scarce regional forecasting scenarios,the authors innovatively apply semantic segmentation models,to better capture spatiotemporal features and improve prediction accuracy;(2)recognizing the challenge of overfitting and the inability of traditional noise-based data augmentation methods to effectively enhance model robustness,a novel learnable Gaussian noise mechanism is introduced that allows the model to adaptively optimize perturbations for different locations,ensuring more effective learning;and(3)to address the issue of error accumulation in autoregressive prediction,as well as the challenge of learning difficulty and the lack of intermediate data utilization in one-shot prediction,the authors propose a cascade prediction approach that effectively resolves these problems while significantly improving model forecasting performance.The method achieves a competitive result in The East China Regional AI Medium Range Weather Forecasting Competition.Ablation experiments further validate the effectiveness of each component,highlighting their contributions to enhancing prediction performance.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program Project(2023YFC3107804)Planning Fund Project of Humanities and Social Sciences Research of the Ministry of Education(24YJA880097)the Graduate Education Reform Project in North China University of Technology(217051360025XN095-17)。
文摘Marine forecasting is critical for navigation safety and disaster prevention.However,traditional ocean numerical forecasting models are often limited by substantial errors and inadequate capture of temporal-spatial features.To address the limitations,the paper proposes a TimeXer-based numerical forecast correction model optimized by an exogenous-variable attention mechanism.The model treats target forecast values as internal variables,and incorporates historical temporal-spatial data and seven-day numerical forecast results from traditional models as external variables based on the embedding strategy of TimeXer.Using a self-attention structure,the model captures correlations between exogenous variables and target sequences,explores intrinsic multi-dimensional relationships,and subsequently corrects endogenous variables with the mined exogenous features.The model’s performance is evaluated using metrics including MSE(Mean Squared Error),MAE(Mean Absolute Error),RMSE(Root Mean Square Error),MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error),MSPE(Mean Square Percentage Error),and computational time,with TimeXer and PatchTST models serving as benchmarks.Experiment results show that the proposed model achieves lower errors and higher correction accuracy for both one-day and seven-day forecasts.
基金funded by the Deanship of Scientific Research and Libraries at Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University,through the“Nafea”Program,Grant No.(NP-45-082).
文摘Sustainable energy systems will entail a change in the carbon intensity projections,which should be carried out in a proper manner to facilitate the smooth running of the grid and reduce greenhouse emissions.The present article outlines the TransCarbonNet,a novel hybrid deep learning framework with self-attention characteristics added to the bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory(Bi-LSTM)network to forecast the carbon intensity of the grid several days.The proposed temporal fusion model not only learns the local temporal interactions but also the long-term patterns of the carbon emission data;hence,it is able to give suitable forecasts over a period of seven days.TransCarbonNet takes advantage of a multi-head self-attention element to identify significant temporal connections,which means the Bi-LSTM element calculates sequential dependencies in both directions.Massive tests on two actual data sets indicate much improved results in comparison with the existing results,with mean relative errors of 15.3 percent and 12.7 percent,respectively.The framework has given explicable weights of attention that reveal critical periods that influence carbon intensity alterations,and informed decisions on the management of carbon sustainability.The effectiveness of the proposed solution has been validated in numerous cases of operations,and TransCarbonNet is established to be an effective tool when it comes to carbon-friendly optimization of the grid.
文摘Predicting the behavior of renewable energy systems requires models capable of generating accurate forecasts from limited historical data,a challenge that becomes especially pronounced when commissioning new facil-ities where operational records are scarce.This review aims to synthesize recent progress in data-efficient deep learning approaches for addressing such“cold-start”forecasting problems.It primarily covers three interrelated domains—solar photovoltaic(PV),wind power,and electrical load forecasting—where data scarcity and operational variability are most critical,while also including representative studies on hydropower and carbon emission prediction to provide a broader systems perspective.To this end,we examined trends from over 150 predominantly peer-reviewed studies published between 2019 and mid-2025,highlighting advances in zero-shot and few-shot meta-learning frameworks that enable rapid model adaptation with minimal labeled data.Moreover,transfer learning approaches combined with spatiotemporal graph neural networks have been employed to transfer knowledge from existing energy assets to new,data-sparse environments,effectively capturing hidden dependencies among geographic features,meteorological dynamics,and grid structures.Synthetic data generation has further proven valuable for expanding training samples and mitigating overfitting in cold-start scenarios.In addition,large language models and explainable artificial intelligence(XAI)—notably conversational XAI systems—have been used to interpret and communicate complex model behaviors in accessible terms,fostering operator trust from the earliest deployment stages.By consolidating methodological advances,unresolved challenges,and open-source resources,this review provides a coherent overview of deep learning strategies that can shorten the data-sparse ramp-up period of new energy infrastructures and accelerate the transition toward resilient,low-carbon electricity grids.
基金financially supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2021YFB3802800)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51871120)+8 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.BK20200019)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Nos.309190111073092001000430919011404)supports by Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Joint Laboratory for Neutron Scattering Science and Technology and Shenzhen Science and Technology Innovation Commission(No.JCYJ202000109105618137)support from Qing Lan project and the distinguished professor project of Jiangsu provincesupport by the Shenzhen Science and Technology Innovation Committee(No.JCYJ20170413140446951)the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(No.2016YFA0401501)supported by the US DOE Office of Science,Office of Basic Energy Sciences。
文摘Engineering multiscale structural hierarchies in glassy alloys enable a broad spectrum of potential applications.Metallic glasses were born in hierarchical structures from atomic-to-nanometer scales.However,the frozen-in structures in traditional metallic glasses prepared by rapid quenching techniques are challenging to tailor.Here,we show that a PdNiPbulk nanostructured glass of polyamorphous interfacial structures was prepared by inert-gas condensation with a laser evaporation source,and its multiscale structures could be engineered.In-situ scattering experiment results reveal polyamorphous phase transitions occurred in the interfacial regions,which are accompanied by the evolution of medium-range order and the nanoscale heterogeneous structures during the condensation process of glassy nanoparticles under high pressure and the following heating process.Moreover,changes in the cluster connectivity resulting from repacking of the local ordering induced by pressure and temperature could be observed.The thermophysical and mechanical properties,including boson peaks,hardness,and elasticity modulus,could be changed as a function of heat-treatment parameters.Our findings would shed light on the synthesis of bulk nanostructured glassy alloys with tailorable thermodynamic and dynamical behavior as well as mechanical properties based on the understanding of metastability for polyamorphous interfacial phases.
基金financially supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2021YFB3802800)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.BK20200019)+6 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52222104,12261160364,51871120,and 51520105001)support from the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Joint Laboratory for Neutron Scattering Science and Technologysupport of the Shenzhen Science and Technology Innovation Committee(No.JCYJ20170413140446951)partial support by the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,Project N_CityU173/22support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.12275154)the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(No.2021B1515140028)supported by the US DOE Office of Science,Office of Basic Energy Sciences.
文摘Fe-based metallic glasses are promising functional materials for advanced magnetism and sensor fields.Tailoring magnetic performance in amorphous materials requires a thorough knowledge of the correlation between structural disorder and magnetic order,which remains ambiguous.Two practical difficulties remain:the first is directly observing subtle magnetic structural changes on multiple scales,and the second is precisely regulating the various amorphous states.Here we propose a novel approach to tailor the amorphous structure through the liquid-liquid phase transition.In-situ synchrotron diffraction has unraveled a medium-range ordering process dominated by edge-sharing cluster connectivity during the liquid-liquid phase transition.Moreover,nanodomains with topological order have been found to exist in composition with liquid-liquid phase transition,manifesting as hexagonal patterns in small-angle neutron scattering profiles.The liquid-liquid phase transition can induce the nanodomains to be more locally ordered,generating stronger exchange interactions due to the reduced Fe–Fe bond length and the enhanced structural order,leading to the increment of saturation magnetization.Furthermore,the increased local heterogeneity at the medium-range scale enhances the magnetic anisotropy,promoting the permeability response under applied stress and leading to a better stress-impedance effect.These experimental results pave the way to tailor the magnetic structure and performance through the liquid-liquid phase transition.
基金the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2021YFB3802800)the National Natural Sci-ence Foundation of China(Nos.52222104,12261160364,51871120 and 51520105001)+3 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.BK20200019)Si Lan acknowledges the support by Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Joint Laboratory for Neutron Scat-tering Science and Technology and Shenzhen Science and Technol-ogy Innovation Commission(No.JCYJ20200109105618137)the resources of the China Spallation Neutron Source located in Dongguan,China,and the Advanced Photon Source,a US Department of Energy(DOE)Office of Science User Facility op-erated for the DOE Office of Science by Argonne National Labora-tory under Contract No.DE-AC02-06CH11357the US DOE Office of Science,Office of Basic Energy Sciences.The neutron scattering experiments carried out at the Spallation Neutron Source were sponsored by the Scientific User Facilities Di-vision,Office of Basic Energy Sciences,U.S.Department of Energy,under Contract No.DE-AC05-00OR22725 with Oak Ridge National Laboratory.
文摘Developing ductile bulk metallic glasses(BMGs)can benefit from an in-depth understanding of the structure-property relation during plastic deformation.However,endowing BMGs with tensile ductility in BMGs needs to reveal the response of critical structure units during deformation.Here,we report the experimental results of an in-situ synchrotron high-energy X-ray study of a Zr-based BMG under uniaxial tension after preprocessing by canning compression of the three-dimensional compressive stress state.It is revealed that the canning-compressed BMG(CC-BMG)sample has better tensile ductility and higher ultimate strength than the as-cast sample,which possesses heterogeneous and loosely packed local struc-tures on medium-range scales.The experimental results revealed two stages of plastic deformation in the CC-BMGs compared with one stage of plastic deformation in the as-cast BMG.Moreover,the shift in the first sharp diffraction peak along the tension direction for the canning-compressed sample is substan-tially more pronounced than that of the as-cast sample.Furthermore,the real-space analysis illustrates a competition mechanism between the 2-atom and 3-atom connection modes on medium-range order during the plastic deformation of the CC-BMG.Additionally,the ordering on the medium-range scale de-creases in the first plastic deformation stage but increases in the second plastic deformation stage.There-fore,a structural crossover phenomenon occurs in the CC-BMG during plastic deformation.Our results demonstrate a structure-property correlation for the CC-BMGs of heterogeneous medium-range ordered structures,which may be beneficial for endowing BMGs with ductility based on medium-range order engineering techniques.
文摘A method of multi-spectral analysis is used to study the spectral characteristics of surface and upper-level meteorological elements over the Great Wall Station (62°12'S, 58°57'W), Antarctica and their phasecorrelation, propagation of mean oscillation at 500hPa level in the Southern Hemisphere and their corresponding synoptic sense. the results are summed up as follows: 1. Over the sub-Antatctic zone, as in the Northern Hemisphere there generally exist quasi-weekly oscillation and quasi-biweekly oscillation. In different seasons the oscillations of meteorological elements are different: in winter season quasi-biweekly oscillation is dominant, while in summer season quasi-weekly oscillation is dominant. 2. From the Earth's surface to the lower stratosphere there is a distinct quasi-weekly oscillation at each isobaric surface, but the most intense oscillation appears at 200-300hPa, and the oscillations of height and temperature are propagated downward. 3. Both in winter and summer seasons the quasi-biweekly oscillation are propagated from west to east, and the mean velocity of its propagation is about 7-17 longtitude / day. 4. The quasi-biweekly oscillation and the quasi-weekly oscillation over the sub - Antarctic zone are closely related to the activity and intensity variation of polar vortex at 500hPa, while at 1000hPa they reflect an interaction between the circumpolar depression and the sub-tropical high. The quasi-biweekly oscillation may be a reflection of inherent oscillation of the polar vortex, where as the quasi-weekly oscillation is a result of forced oscillation by external disturbance.A large number of calculations and analysis made reveals the features of medium-range oscillation over the sub-Antarctic zone. The results are of significance for understanding the behaviour of synoptic dynamics and making the weather forecast.This work is supported by National Committee for Antarctic Research.
文摘By the use of space-time spectral analysis and band-pass filter, some of the features of the medium-range oscillations in the summer tropical easterlies (10 S-20 N) at 200 hPa are investigated based on a two-year (1980 and 1982) wind (u, v) data set for the period from May to September. Space-time power spectral analysis shows that the total energy of the westward moving waves was the largest and that of the standing waves and eastward mov ing waves was relatively small in the 200 hPa easterlies: the total energy of the eastward moving waves was m minimum at 10° N. Three kinds of the medium-range oscillations with about 50 day, 25 day and quasi-biweekly periods were found in the easterlies, which all show a remarkable interannual variations and latitudinal differences in these two years. The wave energy of zonal wind is mainly associated with the planetary waves (1-3). which all may make important contributions to the 50 day and 25 day oscillations in different years or different latitudes, The quasi-biweekly oscillation is mainly related to the synoptic waves (4-6). In equatorial region, the 50 day oscillation was dominant with a eastward phase propagation in 1982 while the dominant oscillation in 1980 was of 25 day period with a westward phase propagations in 1980. Both of them are of the mode of zonal wavenumber 1. Strong westward 50 day oscillation was found in 10° N-20° N in these two years. Regular propagations of the meridional wind 50 cay oscillation were also found in the easterlies.The 50 day and 25 day oscillation of zonal wind all demonstrate southward phase propagation over the region of the South Asia monsoon and northward phase propagation near international date line, where are the climatic mean position of the tropical upper-tropospheric easterly jet and the tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT). respectively.
文摘In this paper, we use a spectral model for the medium-range numerical weather forecast to discuss the impact of the diurnal variation of solar radiation on the medium-range weather processes. Under the tests of two typical winter and summer cases, we find that the influences of the diurnal variation of solar radiation on summer weather are really important, especially on its rainfall, surface heat transport and 500 hPa height field. On winter weather, however, the influences are very weak.
文摘In this paper, using the daily grid data (2.5 × 2.5) of the ECMWF / WMO, we have computed respectively the three-dimensional wave activity flux in the stages of pre-onset, prevailing and post ending of Meiyu from 1 to 31 July 1982. The potential vorticity field is taken as the physical quantity relating the wave activity flux to the variation of the subtropical high over the Western Pacific. It is found that the three-dimensional wave activity flux is a powerful means for diagnosis of the variation of the subtropical high over the Western Pacific: The region of the subtropical high is just the confluence area of wave energy, whose changes in intensity and range decide the variation of the subtropical high. The confluence of wave energy comes from the monsoon flow in low latitudes, the Meiyu rain belts in middle latitudes and the heating fields on the eastern side of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. The relation between these sources and the subtropical high displays the self-adjusting mechanism among members of East-Asia summer monsoon.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42030605 and 42088101)National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2020YFA0608004)High Performance Computing of Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology for their support of this work。
文摘Marine heatwaves(MHWs),which can exert devastating socioeconomic and ecological impacts,have attracted much public interest in recent years.In this study,we evaluate the sub-seasonal forecast skill of MHWs based on the Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology Climate Forecast System version 1.1(NUIST CFS1.1)and analyze the related physical processes.Our results show that the model can accurately forecast the occurrence of MHWs on a global scale out to a lead time of 25 days.Notably,even at lead times of 51–55 days,the forecast skill in most tropical regions,as well as in the northeastern and southeastern Pacific,is superior to both random forecasts and persistence forecasts.Accurate predictions of sea level pressure,zonal currents,and mixed-layer depth are important for MHW forecasting.Furthermore,we also conduct forecast skill assessments for two well-documented MHW events.Due to its ability to correctly forecast the changes in heat flux anomalies at a lead time of 25 days,the model can accurately forecast the strong MHW event that occurred in the South China Sea in May–October 2020.However,the forecasting results were less than optimal for the strong MHW event that occurred along the Australian west coast in January–April 2011.Although the model accurately forecasts its occurrence,the forecast of its intensity is poor.Additionally,when the lead time exceeds 10 days,forecasts of the relevant physical processes of this MHW event are also inaccurate.
基金supported by Yunnan Provincial Basic Research Project(202401AT070344,202301AT070443)National Natural Science Foundation of China(62263014,52207105)+1 种基金Yunnan Lancang-Mekong International Electric Power Technology Joint Laboratory(202203AP140001)Major Science and Technology Projects in Yunnan Province(202402AG050006).
文摘Accurate short-term wind power forecast technique plays a crucial role in maintaining the safety and economic efficiency of smart grids.Although numerous studies have employed various methods to forecast wind power,there remains a research gap in leveraging swarm intelligence algorithms to optimize the hyperparameters of the Transformer model for wind power prediction.To improve the accuracy of short-term wind power forecast,this paper proposes a hybrid short-term wind power forecast approach named STL-IAOA-iTransformer,which is based on seasonal and trend decomposition using LOESS(STL)and iTransformer model optimized by improved arithmetic optimization algorithm(IAOA).First,to fully extract the power data features,STL is used to decompose the original data into components with less redundant information.The extracted components as well as the weather data are then input into iTransformer for short-term wind power forecast.The final predicted short-term wind power curve is obtained by combining the predicted components.To improve the model accuracy,IAOA is employed to optimize the hyperparameters of iTransformer.The proposed approach is validated using real-generation data from different seasons and different power stations inNorthwest China,and ablation experiments have been conducted.Furthermore,to validate the superiority of the proposed approach under different wind characteristics,real power generation data fromsouthwestChina are utilized for experiments.Thecomparative results with the other six state-of-the-art prediction models in experiments show that the proposed model well fits the true value of generation series and achieves high prediction accuracy.
