Poisson-Gumbel joint distribution model uses maximum wind speed corresponding to multiple typhoons to construct sample sequence.Thresholds are usually used to filter sample sequences to make them more consistent with ...Poisson-Gumbel joint distribution model uses maximum wind speed corresponding to multiple typhoons to construct sample sequence.Thresholds are usually used to filter sample sequences to make them more consistent with Poisson distribution.However,few studies have discussed the threshold setting and its impact on Poisson-Gumbel joint distribution model.In this study,a sample sequence based on the data of Qinzhou meteorological station from 2005 to 2018 were constructed.We set 0%,5%,10%,20%and 30%gradient thresholds.Then,we analyzed the influence of threshold change on the calculation results of maximum wind speed in different return periods.The results showed that:(1)When the threshold increases,the maximum wind speed of each return period will decrease gradually.This indicates that the length of the sample series may have a positive effect on the return period wind speed calculation in Gumbel and Poisson-Gumbel methods.Although the augment of the threshold increases the average value of the maximum wind speed of the sample sequence,it shortens the length of the sample sequence,resulting in a lower calculated value of the maximum wind speed.However,this deviation is not large.Taking the common 10%threshold as an example,the maximum wind speed calculation deviation in the 50 a return period is about 1.9%;(2)Theoretically,the threshold is set to make the sample sequence more consistent with Poisson distribution,but this example showed that the effect is worth further discussion.Although the overall trend showed that the increase of the threshold can makeχ2 decrease,the correlation coefficient of linear fitting was only 0.182.Taking Qinzhou meteorological station data as an example,theχ2 of 20%threshold was as high as 6.35,meaning that the selected sample sequence was not ideal.展开更多
Using the data on the maximum wind speed within ten minutes every month in the period 1971-2009 in Zhucheng City of Shandong Province, we conduct statistical analysis of the maximum wind speed in Zhucheng City. The re...Using the data on the maximum wind speed within ten minutes every month in the period 1971-2009 in Zhucheng City of Shandong Province, we conduct statistical analysis of the maximum wind speed in Zhucheng City. The results show that over thirty-nine years, the annual maximum wind speed in four seasons in Zhucheng City tends to decline. The annual maximum wind speed declines at the rate of 1.45 m/s every 10 years. It falls fastest in winter, with decline rate of 1.73 m/s every 10 years; it is close to the average annual maximum wind speed in spring and autumn, with decline rate of 1.44 m/s and 14.8 m/s every 10 years, respectively; it falls slowest in summer, and the extreme value of the maximum wind speed occurs mainly in spring. The curve of changes in the monthly maximum wind speed in Zhucheng City assumes diminishing shape of "two peaks and one trough". We conduct preliminary analysis of the windy weather situation, and put forth specific defensive measures against the hazards of strong winds in the different periods.展开更多
基金This work was supported by the Second Tibet Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(STEP)under grant number 2019QZKK0804the National Natural Science Foundation of China“Study on the dynamic mechanism of grassland ecosystem response to climate change in Qinghai Plateau”under grant number U20A2098.
文摘Poisson-Gumbel joint distribution model uses maximum wind speed corresponding to multiple typhoons to construct sample sequence.Thresholds are usually used to filter sample sequences to make them more consistent with Poisson distribution.However,few studies have discussed the threshold setting and its impact on Poisson-Gumbel joint distribution model.In this study,a sample sequence based on the data of Qinzhou meteorological station from 2005 to 2018 were constructed.We set 0%,5%,10%,20%and 30%gradient thresholds.Then,we analyzed the influence of threshold change on the calculation results of maximum wind speed in different return periods.The results showed that:(1)When the threshold increases,the maximum wind speed of each return period will decrease gradually.This indicates that the length of the sample series may have a positive effect on the return period wind speed calculation in Gumbel and Poisson-Gumbel methods.Although the augment of the threshold increases the average value of the maximum wind speed of the sample sequence,it shortens the length of the sample sequence,resulting in a lower calculated value of the maximum wind speed.However,this deviation is not large.Taking the common 10%threshold as an example,the maximum wind speed calculation deviation in the 50 a return period is about 1.9%;(2)Theoretically,the threshold is set to make the sample sequence more consistent with Poisson distribution,but this example showed that the effect is worth further discussion.Although the overall trend showed that the increase of the threshold can makeχ2 decrease,the correlation coefficient of linear fitting was only 0.182.Taking Qinzhou meteorological station data as an example,theχ2 of 20%threshold was as high as 6.35,meaning that the selected sample sequence was not ideal.
文摘Using the data on the maximum wind speed within ten minutes every month in the period 1971-2009 in Zhucheng City of Shandong Province, we conduct statistical analysis of the maximum wind speed in Zhucheng City. The results show that over thirty-nine years, the annual maximum wind speed in four seasons in Zhucheng City tends to decline. The annual maximum wind speed declines at the rate of 1.45 m/s every 10 years. It falls fastest in winter, with decline rate of 1.73 m/s every 10 years; it is close to the average annual maximum wind speed in spring and autumn, with decline rate of 1.44 m/s and 14.8 m/s every 10 years, respectively; it falls slowest in summer, and the extreme value of the maximum wind speed occurs mainly in spring. The curve of changes in the monthly maximum wind speed in Zhucheng City assumes diminishing shape of "two peaks and one trough". We conduct preliminary analysis of the windy weather situation, and put forth specific defensive measures against the hazards of strong winds in the different periods.
