Compared with traditional real-time forecasting,this paper proposes a Grey Markov Model(GMM) to forecast the maximum water levels at hydrological stations in the estuary area.The GMM combines the Grey System and Marko...Compared with traditional real-time forecasting,this paper proposes a Grey Markov Model(GMM) to forecast the maximum water levels at hydrological stations in the estuary area.The GMM combines the Grey System and Markov theory into a higher precision model.The GMM takes advantage of the Grey System to predict the trend values and uses the Markov theory to forecast fluctuation values,and thus gives forecast results involving two aspects of information.The procedure for forecasting annul maximum water levels with the GMM contains five main steps:1) establish the GM(1,1) model based on the data series;2) estimate the trend values;3) establish a Markov Model based on relative error series;4) modify the relative errors caused in step 2,and then obtain the relative errors of the second order estimation;5) compare the results with measured data and estimate the accuracy.The historical water level records(from 1960 to 1992) at Yuqiao Hydrological Station in the estuary area of the Haihe River near Tianjin,China are utilized to calibrate and verify the proposed model according to the above steps.Every 25 years' data are regarded as a hydro-sequence.Eight groups of simulated results show reasonable agreement between the predicted values and the measured data.The GMM is also applied to the 10 other hydrological stations in the same estuary.The forecast results for all of the hydrological stations are good or acceptable.The feasibility and effectiveness of this new forecasting model have been proved in this paper.展开更多
In this paper, we describe an improved adaptive partial response maximum likelihood （PRML） method combining modulation code tbr signal waveform modulation multi-level disc. This improved adaptive PRML method employs...In this paper, we describe an improved adaptive partial response maximum likelihood （PRML） method combining modulation code tbr signal waveform modulation multi-level disc. This improved adaptive PRML method employs partial response equalizer and adaptive viterbi detector combining modulation code. Compared with the traditional adaptive PRML detector, the improved PRML detector additionally employs illogical sequence detector and corrector. Illogical sequence detector and corrector can aw）id the appearance of illogical sequences effectively, which do not follow the law of modulation code for signal waveform modulation multi-level disc, and obtain the correct sequences. We implement the improved PRML detector using a DSP and an FPGA chip. The experimental results show good performance. The higher efficient and lower complexity can be obtained by using the improved PRML method than by using the previous PRML method. Meanwhile, resource utilization of the improved PRML detector is not changed, but the bit error rate （BER） is reduced by more than 20%.展开更多
A grey model with periodic term for sea-level analysis is presented.The present model keeps some advantages of tea GM (1, 1 )model, which well reflects the trend of sea-level changes and gives out the change rate as ...A grey model with periodic term for sea-level analysis is presented.The present model keeps some advantages of tea GM (1, 1 )model, which well reflects the trend of sea-level changes and gives out the change rate as well as the acceleration of sea level conveniently.level conveniently.In addition, the present model can reproduce the periodic phenomena of sealevel, hence, it overcomes the shortcomings of the GM(1,1) model that is unsuitable for forecasting monthly mean sealevel with apparent periodicity, and its prediction accuracy is improved.The present model is used to analyse Guangxi coast sea level,the results show that the rise rates of relative sea level at Beihai, Weizhou and Bailongwei are 1 .67,2 .51 and 0.89 mm/a respectively, the relative sea level at Shitoubu has a falling trend with a rate of 0. 5- 1 .0 mm/a, the rise rate of eustatic sea level along the Guangxi coast is 2 .0 mm/a. In comparison with the model with a lineartrend term plus a periodic term, the simulation accuracies of both models are about the same.展开更多
Fishponds waters intended to satisfy the nutritional needs of the populations in terms of supply of fish resources are strongly and unfortunately exposed to the mobility and dispersion of metallic trace elements (TMEs...Fishponds waters intended to satisfy the nutritional needs of the populations in terms of supply of fish resources are strongly and unfortunately exposed to the mobility and dispersion of metallic trace elements (TMEs) or to the persistence in the environment and in the form of pesticide residues from human activities. The objective of this work is to evaluate, on the one hand, the levels of identified pesticide residues and, on the other hand, those of researched TMEs (lead, cadmium, mercury and arsenic) in the waters of ponds used for fish farming in Zépréguhé, a locality located 9 km from the town of Daloa in the centre-west of Côte d’Ivoire. The dosage of the samples carried out by means of a gas chromatograph coupled to a mass spectrometer (GC/MS) made it possible to detect nine (9) pesticide molecules, including eight (8) organochlorines and a single molecule from the pyrethroid family, obtained from the detection limit of 0.006 μg/L and the quantification limit of 0.018 μg/L. The maximum average concentration was obtained with α-endosulfan for a content reaching 0.8038 μg/L and well above the maximum admissible concentration of 0.1 μg/L. The TMEs were quantified using an atomic absorption spectrophotometer (AAS). Arsenic is the most abundant metal with an average concentration of 9.497 μg/L. With the exception of lead, these measured levels are above the acceptable limit values for freshwater. This study showed that human activities such as the use of fertilisers and plant protection products in plantations, sand extraction and road traffic have a negative impact on the quality of the water in ponds used for fish breeding.展开更多
In this article, Milkov and Sassen＇s model is selected to calculate the thickness of the gas hydrate stable zone （GHSZ） and the amount of gas hydrate in the Xisha （西沙） Trough at present and at the last glacial ...In this article, Milkov and Sassen＇s model is selected to calculate the thickness of the gas hydrate stable zone （GHSZ） and the amount of gas hydrate in the Xisha （西沙） Trough at present and at the last glacial maximum （LGM）, respectively, and the effects of the changes in the bottom water temperature and the sea level on these were also discussed. The average thickness of the GHSZ in Xisha Trough is estimated to be 287 m and 299 m based on the relationship between the GHSZ thickness and the water depth established in this study at present and at LGM, respectively. Then, by assuming that the distributed area of gas hydrates is 8 000 km^2 and that the gas hydrate saturation is 1.2% of the sediment volume, the amounts of gas hydrate are estimated to be -2.76×10^10 m^3 and -2.87×10^10 m^3, and the volumes of hydrate-bound gases are -4.52×10^12 m^3 and -4.71×10^12 m^3 at present and at LGM, respectively. The above results show that the thickness of GHSZ decreases with the bottom water temperature increase and increases with the sea level increase, wherein the effect of the former is larger than that of the latter, that the average thickness of GHSZ in Xisha Trough had been reduced by -12 m, and that 1.9×10^11 m^3 of methane is released from approximately 1.1×10^9m^3 of gas hydrate since LGM. The released methane should have greatly affected the environment.展开更多
A nonlinear two-dimension dynamic model of storm surge (SS) and astronomical tide(AT) was used to investigate the effects of SS and AT on expected sea level rise (SLR) at principalcoastal stations in the Shanghai regi...A nonlinear two-dimension dynamic model of storm surge (SS) and astronomical tide(AT) was used to investigate the effects of SS and AT on expected sea level rise (SLR) at principalcoastal stations in the Shanghai region and to estimate numerically the probable maximum water lerel for2010 - 2050. Evidence suggests tha SLR causes reduction of SS; that its influence on SS depends on theintensity and path of a tropical cyclone and the station locality; tha the SLR’s effects on AT vary periodi-cally, with the peried being the same as tha of the AT’s: and that as the SLR increment grows, its impactincreases; below mean sea level (MSL) the effect is positive at rising tide and negative at ebb tide, andvice versa for the effect above MSL. Study of the probable maximum water level (by assuming SLR, SSalong favorable tropical cyclone’s path, its possible maximum intensity and effectivee spring AT at a rangeof set paths of Cyclones 5612, 8114, 9417) showed that the probable maximum water level is 740, 745,and 751 cm in the years 2010, 2030, and 2050, respetively, over the target region.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (50879085)the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University(NCET-07-0778)the Key Technology Research Project of Dynamic Environmental Flume for Ocean Monitoring Facilities (201005027-4)
文摘Compared with traditional real-time forecasting,this paper proposes a Grey Markov Model(GMM) to forecast the maximum water levels at hydrological stations in the estuary area.The GMM combines the Grey System and Markov theory into a higher precision model.The GMM takes advantage of the Grey System to predict the trend values and uses the Markov theory to forecast fluctuation values,and thus gives forecast results involving two aspects of information.The procedure for forecasting annul maximum water levels with the GMM contains five main steps:1) establish the GM(1,1) model based on the data series;2) estimate the trend values;3) establish a Markov Model based on relative error series;4) modify the relative errors caused in step 2,and then obtain the relative errors of the second order estimation;5) compare the results with measured data and estimate the accuracy.The historical water level records(from 1960 to 1992) at Yuqiao Hydrological Station in the estuary area of the Haihe River near Tianjin,China are utilized to calibrate and verify the proposed model according to the above steps.Every 25 years' data are regarded as a hydro-sequence.Eight groups of simulated results show reasonable agreement between the predicted values and the measured data.The GMM is also applied to the 10 other hydrological stations in the same estuary.The forecast results for all of the hydrological stations are good or acceptable.The feasibility and effectiveness of this new forecasting model have been proved in this paper.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.61127010)
文摘In this paper, we describe an improved adaptive partial response maximum likelihood （PRML） method combining modulation code tbr signal waveform modulation multi-level disc. This improved adaptive PRML method employs partial response equalizer and adaptive viterbi detector combining modulation code. Compared with the traditional adaptive PRML detector, the improved PRML detector additionally employs illogical sequence detector and corrector. Illogical sequence detector and corrector can aw）id the appearance of illogical sequences effectively, which do not follow the law of modulation code for signal waveform modulation multi-level disc, and obtain the correct sequences. We implement the improved PRML detector using a DSP and an FPGA chip. The experimental results show good performance. The higher efficient and lower complexity can be obtained by using the improved PRML method than by using the previous PRML method. Meanwhile, resource utilization of the improved PRML detector is not changed, but the bit error rate （BER） is reduced by more than 20%.
文摘A grey model with periodic term for sea-level analysis is presented.The present model keeps some advantages of tea GM (1, 1 )model, which well reflects the trend of sea-level changes and gives out the change rate as well as the acceleration of sea level conveniently.level conveniently.In addition, the present model can reproduce the periodic phenomena of sealevel, hence, it overcomes the shortcomings of the GM(1,1) model that is unsuitable for forecasting monthly mean sealevel with apparent periodicity, and its prediction accuracy is improved.The present model is used to analyse Guangxi coast sea level,the results show that the rise rates of relative sea level at Beihai, Weizhou and Bailongwei are 1 .67,2 .51 and 0.89 mm/a respectively, the relative sea level at Shitoubu has a falling trend with a rate of 0. 5- 1 .0 mm/a, the rise rate of eustatic sea level along the Guangxi coast is 2 .0 mm/a. In comparison with the model with a lineartrend term plus a periodic term, the simulation accuracies of both models are about the same.
文摘Fishponds waters intended to satisfy the nutritional needs of the populations in terms of supply of fish resources are strongly and unfortunately exposed to the mobility and dispersion of metallic trace elements (TMEs) or to the persistence in the environment and in the form of pesticide residues from human activities. The objective of this work is to evaluate, on the one hand, the levels of identified pesticide residues and, on the other hand, those of researched TMEs (lead, cadmium, mercury and arsenic) in the waters of ponds used for fish farming in Zépréguhé, a locality located 9 km from the town of Daloa in the centre-west of Côte d’Ivoire. The dosage of the samples carried out by means of a gas chromatograph coupled to a mass spectrometer (GC/MS) made it possible to detect nine (9) pesticide molecules, including eight (8) organochlorines and a single molecule from the pyrethroid family, obtained from the detection limit of 0.006 μg/L and the quantification limit of 0.018 μg/L. The maximum average concentration was obtained with α-endosulfan for a content reaching 0.8038 μg/L and well above the maximum admissible concentration of 0.1 μg/L. The TMEs were quantified using an atomic absorption spectrophotometer (AAS). Arsenic is the most abundant metal with an average concentration of 9.497 μg/L. With the exception of lead, these measured levels are above the acceptable limit values for freshwater. This study showed that human activities such as the use of fertilisers and plant protection products in plantations, sand extraction and road traffic have a negative impact on the quality of the water in ponds used for fish breeding.
基金This paper is supported by the Innovation Program of the Chi-nese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-YW-211)the Na-tional Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40676043)+1 种基金the Foundation of Key Laboratory of Marginal Sea Geology, the South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. MSGL0509)the Start-up Foundation for Doctor Scientific Research of South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
文摘In this article, Milkov and Sassen＇s model is selected to calculate the thickness of the gas hydrate stable zone （GHSZ） and the amount of gas hydrate in the Xisha （西沙） Trough at present and at the last glacial maximum （LGM）, respectively, and the effects of the changes in the bottom water temperature and the sea level on these were also discussed. The average thickness of the GHSZ in Xisha Trough is estimated to be 287 m and 299 m based on the relationship between the GHSZ thickness and the water depth established in this study at present and at LGM, respectively. Then, by assuming that the distributed area of gas hydrates is 8 000 km^2 and that the gas hydrate saturation is 1.2% of the sediment volume, the amounts of gas hydrate are estimated to be -2.76×10^10 m^3 and -2.87×10^10 m^3, and the volumes of hydrate-bound gases are -4.52×10^12 m^3 and -4.71×10^12 m^3 at present and at LGM, respectively. The above results show that the thickness of GHSZ decreases with the bottom water temperature increase and increases with the sea level increase, wherein the effect of the former is larger than that of the latter, that the average thickness of GHSZ in Xisha Trough had been reduced by -12 m, and that 1.9×10^11 m^3 of methane is released from approximately 1.1×10^9m^3 of gas hydrate since LGM. The released methane should have greatly affected the environment.
文摘A nonlinear two-dimension dynamic model of storm surge (SS) and astronomical tide(AT) was used to investigate the effects of SS and AT on expected sea level rise (SLR) at principalcoastal stations in the Shanghai region and to estimate numerically the probable maximum water lerel for2010 - 2050. Evidence suggests tha SLR causes reduction of SS; that its influence on SS depends on theintensity and path of a tropical cyclone and the station locality; tha the SLR’s effects on AT vary periodi-cally, with the peried being the same as tha of the AT’s: and that as the SLR increment grows, its impactincreases; below mean sea level (MSL) the effect is positive at rising tide and negative at ebb tide, andvice versa for the effect above MSL. Study of the probable maximum water level (by assuming SLR, SSalong favorable tropical cyclone’s path, its possible maximum intensity and effectivee spring AT at a rangeof set paths of Cyclones 5612, 8114, 9417) showed that the probable maximum water level is 740, 745,and 751 cm in the years 2010, 2030, and 2050, respetively, over the target region.
