With the observational wind data and the Zebiak-Cane model, the impact of Madden-Iulian Oscillation （MJO） as external forcing on El Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） predictability is studied. The observational dat...With the observational wind data and the Zebiak-Cane model, the impact of Madden-Iulian Oscillation （MJO） as external forcing on El Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） predictability is studied. The observational data are analyzed with Continuous Wavelet Transform （CWT） and then used to extract MJO signals, which are added into the model to get a new model. After the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation （CNOP） method has been used, the initial errors which can evolve into maximum prediction error, model errors and their join errors are gained and then the Nifio 3 indices and spatial structures of three kinds of errors are investigated. The results mainly show that the observational MJO has little impact on the maximum prediction error of ENSO events and the initial error affects much greater than model error caused by MJO forcing. These demonstrate that the initial error might be the main error source that produces uncertainty in ENSO prediction, which could provide a theoretical foundation for the adaptive data assimilation of the ENSO forecast and contribute to the ENSO target observation.展开更多
Logarithmic general error distribution is an extension of lognormal distribution. In this paper, with optimal norming constants the higher-order expansion of distribution of partial maximum of logarithmic general erro...Logarithmic general error distribution is an extension of lognormal distribution. In this paper, with optimal norming constants the higher-order expansion of distribution of partial maximum of logarithmic general error distribution is derived.展开更多
In this paper we report an analysis of sampling error uncertainties in mean maximum and minimum temperatures （Tmax and Tmin） carried out on monthly,seasonal and annual scales,including an examination of homogenized ...In this paper we report an analysis of sampling error uncertainties in mean maximum and minimum temperatures （Tmax and Tmin） carried out on monthly,seasonal and annual scales,including an examination of homogenized and original data collected at 731 meteorological stations across China for the period 1951-2004.Uncertainties of the gridded data and national average,linear trends and their uncertainties,as well as the homogenization effect on uncertainties are assessed.It is shown that the sampling error variances of homogenized Tmax and Tmin,which are larger in winter than in summer,have a marked northwest-southeast gradient distribution,while the sampling error variances of the original data are found to be larger and irregular.Tmax and Tmin increase in all months of the year in the study period 1951-2004,with the largest warming and uncertainties being 0.400℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋ 0.269℃ （10 yr）-1 and 0.578℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋ 0.211℃ （10 yr）-1 in February,and the least being 0.022℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋ 0.085℃ （10 yr）-1 and 0.104℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋0.070℃ （10 yr）-1 in August.Homogenization can remove large uncertainties in the original records resulting from various non-natural changes in China.展开更多
In the numerical prediction of weather or climate events,the uncertainty of the initial values and/or prediction models can bring the forecast result’s uncertainty.Due to the absence of true states,studies on this pr...In the numerical prediction of weather or climate events,the uncertainty of the initial values and/or prediction models can bring the forecast result’s uncertainty.Due to the absence of true states,studies on this problem mainly focus on the three subproblems of predictability,i.e.,the lower bound of the maximum predictable time,the upper bound of the prediction error,and the lower bound of the maximum allowable initial error.Aimed at the problem of the lower bound estimation of the maximum allowable initial error,this study first illustrates the shortcoming of the existing estimation,and then presents a new estimation based on the initial observation precision and proves it theoretically.Furthermore,the new lower bound estimations of both the two-dimensional ikeda model and lorenz96 model are obtained by using the cnop(conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation)method and a pso(particle swarm optimization)algorithm,and the estimated precisions are also analyzed.Besides,the estimations yielded by the existing and new formulas are compared;the results show that the estimations produced by the existing formula are often incorrect.展开更多
Real time remaining useful life(RUL) prediction based on condition monitoring is an essential part in condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the real time RUL prediction of the nonlinear degrad...Real time remaining useful life(RUL) prediction based on condition monitoring is an essential part in condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the real time RUL prediction of the nonlinear degradation process, the measurement error is not considered and forecasting uncertainty is large. Therefore, an approximate analytical RUL distribution in a closed-form of a nonlinear Wiener based degradation process with measurement errors was proposed. The maximum likelihood estimation approach was used to estimate the unknown fixed parameters in the proposed model. When the newly observed data are available, the random parameter is updated by the Bayesian method to make the estimation adapt to the item's individual characteristic and reduce the uncertainty of the estimation. The simulation results show that considering measurement errors in the degradation process can significantly improve the accuracy of real time RUL prediction.展开更多
In the presence of multicollinearity in logistic regression, the variance of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) becomes inflated. Siray et al. (2015) [1] proposed a restricted Liu estimator in logistic regression ...In the presence of multicollinearity in logistic regression, the variance of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) becomes inflated. Siray et al. (2015) [1] proposed a restricted Liu estimator in logistic regression model with exact linear restrictions. However, there are some situations, where the linear restrictions are stochastic. In this paper, we propose a Stochastic Restricted Maximum Likelihood Estimator (SRMLE) for the logistic regression model with stochastic linear restrictions to overcome this issue. Moreover, a Monte Carlo simulation is conducted for comparing the performances of the MLE, Restricted Maximum Likelihood Estimator (RMLE), Ridge Type Logistic Estimator(LRE), Liu Type Logistic Estimator(LLE), and SRMLE for the logistic regression model by using Scalar Mean Squared Error (SMSE).展开更多
In this paper maximum ranked set sampling procedure with unequal samples (MRSSU) is proposed. Maximum likelihood estimator and modified maximum likelihood estimator are obtained and their properties are studied under ...In this paper maximum ranked set sampling procedure with unequal samples (MRSSU) is proposed. Maximum likelihood estimator and modified maximum likelihood estimator are obtained and their properties are studied under exponential distribution. These methods are studied under both perfect and imperfect ranking (with errors in ranking). These estimators are then compared with estimators based on simple random sampling (SRS) and ranked set sampling (RSS) procedures. It is shown that relative efficiencies of the estimators based on MRSSU are better than those of the estimator based on SRS. Simulation results show that efficiency of proposed estimator is better than estimator based on RSS under ranking error.展开更多
Correctly estimating the forecast error covariance matrix is a key step in any data assimilation scheme. If it is not correctly estimated, the assimilated states could be far from the true states. A popular method to ...Correctly estimating the forecast error covariance matrix is a key step in any data assimilation scheme. If it is not correctly estimated, the assimilated states could be far from the true states. A popular method to address this problem is error covariance matrix inflation. That is, to multiply the forecast error covariance matrix by an appropriate factor. In this paper, analysis states are used to construct the forecast error covariance matrix and an adaptive estimation procedure associated with the error covariance matrix inflation technique is developed. The proposed assimilation scheme was tested on the Lorenz-96 model and 2D Shallow Water Equation model, both of which are associated with spatially correlated observational systems. The experiments showed that by introducing the proposed structure of the forecast error eovariance matrix and applying its adaptive estimation procedure, the assimilation results were further improved.展开更多
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.41405062
文摘With the observational wind data and the Zebiak-Cane model, the impact of Madden-Iulian Oscillation （MJO） as external forcing on El Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） predictability is studied. The observational data are analyzed with Continuous Wavelet Transform （CWT） and then used to extract MJO signals, which are added into the model to get a new model. After the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation （CNOP） method has been used, the initial errors which can evolve into maximum prediction error, model errors and their join errors are gained and then the Nifio 3 indices and spatial structures of three kinds of errors are investigated. The results mainly show that the observational MJO has little impact on the maximum prediction error of ENSO events and the initial error affects much greater than model error caused by MJO forcing. These demonstrate that the initial error might be the main error source that produces uncertainty in ENSO prediction, which could provide a theoretical foundation for the adaptive data assimilation of the ENSO forecast and contribute to the ENSO target observation.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(11171275)the Natural Science Foundation Project of CQ(cstc2012jj A00029)the Doctoral Grant of University of Shanghai for Science and Technology(BSQD201608)
文摘Logarithmic general error distribution is an extension of lognormal distribution. In this paper, with optimal norming constants the higher-order expansion of distribution of partial maximum of logarithmic general error distribution is derived.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41130103)the 973 Program (Grant Nos. 2009CB421406 and 2012CB955401)+1 种基金the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (Grant No. EL133E09SE4048)the US National Science Foundation (Grant Nos. AGS-1015926 and AGS-1015957)
文摘In this paper we report an analysis of sampling error uncertainties in mean maximum and minimum temperatures （Tmax and Tmin） carried out on monthly,seasonal and annual scales,including an examination of homogenized and original data collected at 731 meteorological stations across China for the period 1951-2004.Uncertainties of the gridded data and national average,linear trends and their uncertainties,as well as the homogenization effect on uncertainties are assessed.It is shown that the sampling error variances of homogenized Tmax and Tmin,which are larger in winter than in summer,have a marked northwest-southeast gradient distribution,while the sampling error variances of the original data are found to be larger and irregular.Tmax and Tmin increase in all months of the year in the study period 1951-2004,with the largest warming and uncertainties being 0.400℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋ 0.269℃ （10 yr）-1 and 0.578℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋ 0.211℃ （10 yr）-1 in February,and the least being 0.022℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋ 0.085℃ （10 yr）-1 and 0.104℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋0.070℃ （10 yr）-1 in August.Homogenization can remove large uncertainties in the original records resulting from various non-natural changes in China.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41331174)
文摘In the numerical prediction of weather or climate events,the uncertainty of the initial values and/or prediction models can bring the forecast result’s uncertainty.Due to the absence of true states,studies on this problem mainly focus on the three subproblems of predictability,i.e.,the lower bound of the maximum predictable time,the upper bound of the prediction error,and the lower bound of the maximum allowable initial error.Aimed at the problem of the lower bound estimation of the maximum allowable initial error,this study first illustrates the shortcoming of the existing estimation,and then presents a new estimation based on the initial observation precision and proves it theoretically.Furthermore,the new lower bound estimations of both the two-dimensional ikeda model and lorenz96 model are obtained by using the cnop(conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation)method and a pso(particle swarm optimization)algorithm,and the estimated precisions are also analyzed.Besides,the estimations yielded by the existing and new formulas are compared;the results show that the estimations produced by the existing formula are often incorrect.
基金Projects(51475462,61374138,61370031)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Real time remaining useful life(RUL) prediction based on condition monitoring is an essential part in condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the real time RUL prediction of the nonlinear degradation process, the measurement error is not considered and forecasting uncertainty is large. Therefore, an approximate analytical RUL distribution in a closed-form of a nonlinear Wiener based degradation process with measurement errors was proposed. The maximum likelihood estimation approach was used to estimate the unknown fixed parameters in the proposed model. When the newly observed data are available, the random parameter is updated by the Bayesian method to make the estimation adapt to the item's individual characteristic and reduce the uncertainty of the estimation. The simulation results show that considering measurement errors in the degradation process can significantly improve the accuracy of real time RUL prediction.
文摘In the presence of multicollinearity in logistic regression, the variance of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) becomes inflated. Siray et al. (2015) [1] proposed a restricted Liu estimator in logistic regression model with exact linear restrictions. However, there are some situations, where the linear restrictions are stochastic. In this paper, we propose a Stochastic Restricted Maximum Likelihood Estimator (SRMLE) for the logistic regression model with stochastic linear restrictions to overcome this issue. Moreover, a Monte Carlo simulation is conducted for comparing the performances of the MLE, Restricted Maximum Likelihood Estimator (RMLE), Ridge Type Logistic Estimator(LRE), Liu Type Logistic Estimator(LLE), and SRMLE for the logistic regression model by using Scalar Mean Squared Error (SMSE).
文摘In this paper maximum ranked set sampling procedure with unequal samples (MRSSU) is proposed. Maximum likelihood estimator and modified maximum likelihood estimator are obtained and their properties are studied under exponential distribution. These methods are studied under both perfect and imperfect ranking (with errors in ranking). These estimators are then compared with estimators based on simple random sampling (SRS) and ranked set sampling (RSS) procedures. It is shown that relative efficiencies of the estimators based on MRSSU are better than those of the estimator based on SRS. Simulation results show that efficiency of proposed estimator is better than estimator based on RSS under ranking error.
基金supported by the National Program on Key Basic Research Project of China (Grant No. 2010CB950703)the National Natural Science foundation of China General Program (Grant No. 40975062)the Young Scholars Fundation of Beijing Normal University (Grant No. 105502GK)
文摘Correctly estimating the forecast error covariance matrix is a key step in any data assimilation scheme. If it is not correctly estimated, the assimilated states could be far from the true states. A popular method to address this problem is error covariance matrix inflation. That is, to multiply the forecast error covariance matrix by an appropriate factor. In this paper, analysis states are used to construct the forecast error covariance matrix and an adaptive estimation procedure associated with the error covariance matrix inflation technique is developed. The proposed assimilation scheme was tested on the Lorenz-96 model and 2D Shallow Water Equation model, both of which are associated with spatially correlated observational systems. The experiments showed that by introducing the proposed structure of the forecast error eovariance matrix and applying its adaptive estimation procedure, the assimilation results were further improved.
