Inhomogeneities in the daily mean/maximum/ minimum temperature （Tm/Tmax/Tmin） series from 1960- 2008 at 549 National Standard Stations （NSSs） in China were analyzed by using the Multiple Analysis of Series for Hom...Inhomogeneities in the daily mean/maximum/ minimum temperature （Tm/Tmax/Tmin） series from 1960- 2008 at 549 National Standard Stations （NSSs） in China were analyzed by using the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization （MASH） software package. Typical biases in the dataset were illustrated via the cases of Beijing （B J）, Wutaishan （WT）, Urumqi （UR） and Henan （HN） stations. The homogenized dataset shows a mean warming trend of 0.261/0.193/0.344℃/decade for the annual series of Tm/Tmax/Tmin, slightly smaller than that of the original dataset by 0.006/0.009/0.007℃/decade. However, considerable differences between the adjusted and original datasets were found at the local scale. The adjusted Tmin series shows a significant warming trend almost everywhere for all seasons, while there are a number of stations with an insignificant trend in the original dataset. The adjusted Tm data exhibit significant warming trends annually as well as for the autumn and winter seasons in northern China, and cooling trends only for the summer in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and parts of central China and for the spring in southwestern China, while the original data show cooling trends at several stations for the annual and seasonal scales in the Qinghai, Shanxi, Hebei, and Xinjiang provinces. The adjusted Tmax data exhibit cooling trends for summers at a number of stations in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers and for springs and winters at a few stations in southwestern China, while the original data show cooling trends at three/four stations for the annual/autumn periods in the Qinghai and Yunnan provinces. In general, the number of stations with a cooling trend was much smaller in the adjusted Tm and Tmax dataset than in the original dataset. The cooling trend for summers is mainly due to cooling in August. The results of homogenization using MASH appear to be robust; in particular, different groups of stations with consideration of elevation led to minor effects in the results.展开更多
In this paper we report an analysis of sampling error uncertainties in mean maximum and minimum temperatures （Tmax and Tmin） carried out on monthly,seasonal and annual scales,including an examination of homogenized ...In this paper we report an analysis of sampling error uncertainties in mean maximum and minimum temperatures （Tmax and Tmin） carried out on monthly,seasonal and annual scales,including an examination of homogenized and original data collected at 731 meteorological stations across China for the period 1951-2004.Uncertainties of the gridded data and national average,linear trends and their uncertainties,as well as the homogenization effect on uncertainties are assessed.It is shown that the sampling error variances of homogenized Tmax and Tmin,which are larger in winter than in summer,have a marked northwest-southeast gradient distribution,while the sampling error variances of the original data are found to be larger and irregular.Tmax and Tmin increase in all months of the year in the study period 1951-2004,with the largest warming and uncertainties being 0.400℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋ 0.269℃ （10 yr）-1 and 0.578℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋ 0.211℃ （10 yr）-1 in February,and the least being 0.022℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋ 0.085℃ （10 yr）-1 and 0.104℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋0.070℃ （10 yr）-1 in August.Homogenization can remove large uncertainties in the original records resulting from various non-natural changes in China.展开更多
In this paper the authors generalize the classic random bipartite graph model, and define a model of the random bipartite multigraphs as follows：let m = m（n） be a positive integer-valued function on n and ζ（n,m;{...In this paper the authors generalize the classic random bipartite graph model, and define a model of the random bipartite multigraphs as follows：let m = m（n） be a positive integer-valued function on n and ζ（n,m;{pk}） the probability space consisting of all the labeled bipartite multigraphs with two vertex sets A ={a_1,a_2,...,a_n} and B = {b_1,b_2,...,b_m}, in which the numbers t_（ai）,b_j of the edges between any two vertices a_i∈A and b_j∈ B are identically distributed independent random variables with distribution P{t_（ai）,b_j=k}=pk,k=0,1,2,...,where pk ≥0 and ∞Σk=0 pk=1. They obtain that X_（c,d,A）, the number of vertices in A with degree between c and d of G_（n,m）∈ζ（n, m;{pk}） has asymptotically Poisson distribution, and answer the following two questions about the space ζ（n,m;{pk}） with {pk} having geometric distribution, binomial distribution and Poisson distribution, respectively. Under which condition for {pk} can there be a function D（n） such that almost every random multigraph G_（n,m）∈ζ（n,m;{pk}） has maximum degree D（n）in A？ under which condition for {pk} has almost every multigraph G（n,m）∈ζ（n,m;{pk}） a unique vertex of maximum degree in A？展开更多
Maximum and minimum temperatures time series of Congo-Brazzaville are analyzed for trend and discontinuities over the period 1932 to 2010. Temperatures series show an irregular increase. A total of 8 synoptic stations...Maximum and minimum temperatures time series of Congo-Brazzaville are analyzed for trend and discontinuities over the period 1932 to 2010. Temperatures series show an irregular increase. A total of 8 synoptic stations show positive trends in their annual mean maximum temperature series, and 7 of them are significant, with higher trends for urban stations. Annual mean minimum temperature showed 6 stations having positive trends. This increase is in relation with observations at regional scale. However, the differences are observed between large towns (Brazzaville and Pointe-Noire), and small or rural towns (Dolisie, Sibiti, Impfondo, Djambala). Trends in diurnal temperature range (DTR) are large positive trends in maximum temperature that are mainly observed in cities. The curve of DTR shows a decreasing trend which indicates the increasing of minimum temperatures. The effects of urbanization on temperature trends are investigated. Most stations regarded as urban stations are still useful for trend analysis;being situated on the suburban of the studied cities, they are therefore, not substantially influenced by the urban heat island.展开更多
Treatment of skeletal Cl II includes functional orthopedic treatment, head-gears, extraction of the upper premolars and orthognathic surgery. To treat any patient with functional appliances (bite jumping) an adequate ...Treatment of skeletal Cl II includes functional orthopedic treatment, head-gears, extraction of the upper premolars and orthognathic surgery. To treat any patient with functional appliances (bite jumping) an adequate overjet is necessary. In this case an 11 years old female patient has skeletal CLII due to mandibular deficiency with ANB angle 8 degrees, overbite: 3 mm, overjet: 1 mm, extremely convex profile and underdeveloped chin due to the hyper muscle contraction of the lower lip to obtain oral seal. To obtain an adequate overjet lower first premolars were extracted and maximum retraction using mini screws (for maximum anchorage) was applied. Afterwards Rahhal functional appliance was used by the patient 16 hours a day for 6 months and 10 hours a day for another 6 months for retention. After that fixed orthodontic treatment was completed. Lateral cephalometrics were taken, traced and analyzed. In the result Skeletal CLI was obtained (ANB 4 degree), straight facial profile, normal over bite overjet and particular chin development were noticed. As a conclusion, in skeletal CLII malocclusions, lower incisor protrusion will cause a contraindication for functional treatment. Extraction of the lower premolars and retraction of the lower incisors followed by functional orthopedic treatment is an efficient method to treat these cases instead of waiting for orthognathic surgery, also reducing the muscle pressure on the chin will change the development characteristics of it.展开更多
The resistance status of a vertex of a connected graph is the sum of the resistance distance between this vertex and any other vertices of the graph. The minimum(maximum,resp.) resistance status of a connected graph i...The resistance status of a vertex of a connected graph is the sum of the resistance distance between this vertex and any other vertices of the graph. The minimum(maximum,resp.) resistance status of a connected graph is the minimum(maximum, resp.) resistance status of all vertices of the graph. In this paper, we determine the extremal values and corresponding extremal graphs for the minimum(maximum, resp.) resistance status over all unicyclic graphs of fixed order, and we also discuss the dependence of the minimum(maximum, resp.) resistance status on the girth of unicyclic graphs.展开更多
In this paper, we discuss the problem of extreme value for Brownian motion with positive drift. We obtain the joint distribution of the maximum excursion and the minimum excursion.
[Objective]The research aimed to analyze temporal and spatial variation characteristics of temperature in Shangqiu City during 1961-2010.[Method]Based on temperature data in eight meteorological stations of Shangqiu d...[Objective]The research aimed to analyze temporal and spatial variation characteristics of temperature in Shangqiu City during 1961-2010.[Method]Based on temperature data in eight meteorological stations of Shangqiu during 1961-2010,by using trend analysis method,the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of annual average temperature,annual average maximum and minimum temperatures,annual extreme maximum and minimum temperatures,daily range of annual average temperature in Shangqiu City were analyzed.M-K method was used to determine mutation year of temperature.[Result]The annual average temperature,annual average minimum temperature and annual extreme minimum temperature respectively rose at 0.122,0.255 and 0.488℃/10 a.The variation trend of annual average maximum temperature wasn’t obvious.The daily range of annual average temperature and annual extreme maximum temperature respectively declined at-0.217 and-0.292℃/10 a.Seen from spatial distribution,the increase amplitudes of annual average temperature,annual average minimum temperature and annual extreme minimum temperature were all large in the east and small in the west.The decrease amplitude of daily range of annual average temperature was large in the east and small in the west.The decrease amplitude of annual extreme maximum temperature was large in the west and small in the east.The annual average maximum temperature had trends of increase and decrease.The annual average temperature,annual average minimum temperature and daily range of annual average temperature all mutated in 1997.The annual average maximum temperature didn’t have obvious mutation point.The annual extreme maximum temperature mutated in 1973.The annual extreme minimum temperature respectively mutated in 1989 and 1999.[Conclusion]The research played important guidance significances in adjustment of agricultural production structure,regional climate planning,reasonably using climate resource and replying climate change in Shangqiu City.展开更多
The aim of this paper is to determine the maximum values of the track length (Lmax) of alpha particles in Nuclear Track Detector (type CR-39) using a new method by taking the relation between the etching time and the ...The aim of this paper is to determine the maximum values of the track length (Lmax) of alpha particles in Nuclear Track Detector (type CR-39) using a new method by taking the relation between the etching time and the diameter square of alpha particle with different energies at constant bulk etch rate VB (1.45 μm/hr) by using TRACK_TEST program from Brun et al. function and Yu et al. function. Using the new equation, the maximum values of the track lengths of alpha particles measured in CR-39 detector have been found to be in a good agreement with the values measured by using Brun et al. function and Yu et al. function in TRACK_TEST program.展开更多
We study a new family of random variables that each arise as the distribution of the maximum or minimum of a random number N of i.i.d. random variables X<sub>1</sub>, X<sub>2</sub>,…, X<sub...We study a new family of random variables that each arise as the distribution of the maximum or minimum of a random number N of i.i.d. random variables X<sub>1</sub>, X<sub>2</sub>,…, X<sub>N</sub>, each distributed as a variable X with support on [0, 1]. The general scheme is first outlined, and several special cases are studied in detail. Wherever appropriate, we find estimates of the parameter θ in the one-parameter family in question.展开更多
Post-processing correction is an effective way to improve the model forecasting result. Especially, the machine learning methods have played increasingly important roles in recent years. Taking the meteorological obse...Post-processing correction is an effective way to improve the model forecasting result. Especially, the machine learning methods have played increasingly important roles in recent years. Taking the meteorological observational data in a period of two years as the reference, the maximum and minimum temperature predictions of Shenyang station from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and national intelligent grid forecasts are objectively corrected by using wavelet analysis, sliding training and other technologies. The evaluation results show that the sliding training time window of the maximum temperature is smaller than that of the minimum temperature, and their difference is the largest in August, with a difference of 2.6 days. The objective correction product of maximum temperature shows a good performance in spring, while that of minimum temperature performs well throughout the whole year, with an accuracy improvement of 97% to 186%. The correction effect in the central plains is better than in the regions with complex terrain. As for the national intelligent grid forecasts, the objective correction products have shown positive skills in predicting the maximum temperatures in spring (the skill-score reaches 0.59) and in predicting the minimum temperature at most times of the year (the skill-score reaches 0.68).展开更多
The weather in Nagano Prefecture, Japan, can be roughly classified into four types according to principal component analysis and k-means clustering. We predicted the extreme values of the maximum daily and hourly prec...The weather in Nagano Prefecture, Japan, can be roughly classified into four types according to principal component analysis and k-means clustering. We predicted the extreme values of the maximum daily and hourly precipitation in Nagano Prefecture using the extreme value theory. For the maximum daily precipitation, the vales of ξ in Matsumoto, Karuizawa, Sugadaira, and Saku were positive;therefore, it has no upper bound and tends to take large values. Therefore, it is dangerous and caution is required. The values of ξ in Nagano, Kisofukushima, and Minamishinano were determined to be zero, therefore, there was no upper limit, the probability of obtaining a large value was low, and caution was required. We predicted the maximum return levels for return periods of 10, 20, 50, and 100 years along with respective 95% confidence intervals in Nagano, Matsumoto, Karuizawa, Sugadaira, Saku, Kisofukushima, and Minamishinano. In Matsumoto, the 100-year return level was 182 mm, with a 95% CI [129, 236]. In Minamishinano, the 100-year return level was 285 mm, with a 95% CI [173, 398]. The 100-year return levels for the maximum daily rainfall were 285, 271, and 271 mm in Minamishinano, Saku, and Karuizawa, respectively, where the changes in the daily maximum rainfall were larger than those at other points. Because these values are large, caution is required during heavy rainfall. The 100-year return levels for the maximum daily and hourly precipitation were similar in Karuizawa and Saku. In Sugadaira, the 100-year return level for a maximum hourly rainfall of 107.2 mm was larger than the maximum daily rainfall. Hence, it is necessary to be careful about short-term rainfall events.展开更多
For more information,please click www.echinacities.com While it's at least very annoying,and at most woefully erroneous that many Chinese people judge all foreigners to be totally minted,it's not hard to see w...For more information,please click www.echinacities.com While it's at least very annoying,and at most woefully erroneous that many Chinese people judge all foreigners to be totally minted,it's not hard to see why,when many foreigners are here living decadent lifestyles,partying on weekends(and weekdays),travelling all over the country and mincing around town with Macbooks,iPods and Ray Bans.But then there are the secret 'squirrelers',who scrimp together just enough cash to展开更多
Statisticians are usually concerned with the proposition of new distributions. In this paper we point out that a unified and concise derivation procedure of the distribution of the minimum or maximum of a random numbe...Statisticians are usually concerned with the proposition of new distributions. In this paper we point out that a unified and concise derivation procedure of the distribution of the minimum or maximum of a random number N of indepen-dent and identically distributed continuous random variables Yi,{i = 1,2,…,N} is obtained if one compounds the probability generating function of N with the survival or the distribution func-tion of Yi. Expressions are then derived in closed form for the density, hazard and quantile func-tions of the minimum or maximum. The methodology is illustrated with examples of the distributions proposed by Adamidis and Loukas (1998), Kus (2007), Tahmasbi and Rezaei (2008), Barreto-Souza and Cribari-Neto (2009), Cancho, Louzada, and Barriga (2011) and Louzada, Roman and Cancho (2011).展开更多
日最高、最低气温的预报是天气预报业务的重要组成部分,其精度提升对保障社会经济活动具有重要意义。针对数值模式在复杂地形区域系统性偏差显著的问题,本研究以湖南省为试验区(具有“凹”字形三级阶梯地貌,涵盖山地、丘陵、平原等多种...日最高、最低气温的预报是天气预报业务的重要组成部分,其精度提升对保障社会经济活动具有重要意义。针对数值模式在复杂地形区域系统性偏差显著的问题,本研究以湖南省为试验区(具有“凹”字形三级阶梯地貌,涵盖山地、丘陵、平原等多种下垫面类型),提出一种融合地理特征聚类的深度学习改进方案。基于欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)模式预报场、中国气象局陆面数据同化系统(CMA Land Data Assimilation System,CLDAS)再分析数据和地理变量,首先构建基准卷积神经网络CNN模型并针对地形特征处理策略设置三类对照实验:方案1(K-means聚类地理变量)、方案2(标准化非聚类地理变量)及方案3(无地理变量)。对比实验表明,方案1对24 h最高/低温度平均绝对误差MAE较方案3分别降低4.7%/9.4%,较方案2预报技巧提升2.5%/1.4%,证实地理特征聚类处理对模型性能具有显著增益。因此,优选方案1发展了未来72 h气温预报CNN-TC(Terrain Correction)模型。该模型表现出显著预报优势:相较ECMWF产品,最高/低温MAE降幅达23.5%~37.3%/20.8%~26.9%;较中央气象台指导预报产品SCMOC,最高/低温度误差降低18.7%~27.6%/26.8%~32.3%,其中24 h预报时效下,最高/低温度空间分布MAE区间由1.2~5.8℃/0.8~5.9℃(ECMWF)降低至0.9~1.7℃/0.8~1.7℃,区域稳定性大幅提升。分月检验表明,CNN-TC模型在所有月份均保持最优性能,MAE相对降幅覆盖5.6%~59.1%(最高温度)和6.3%~47.8%(最低温度)。典型强天气过程检验中,模型成功捕捉2022年11月寒潮过程的降温特征,较ECWMF和SCMOC表现均为最优,显示出优异的极端天气应对能力。本研究证实通过深度学习耦合地形特征聚类,可有效解决数值模式在复杂下垫面区域的系统性偏差问题,为山地气候区精细化气象服务提供了可靠的技术方案。展开更多
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China 2009CB421401 and 2006CB400503
文摘Inhomogeneities in the daily mean/maximum/ minimum temperature （Tm/Tmax/Tmin） series from 1960- 2008 at 549 National Standard Stations （NSSs） in China were analyzed by using the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization （MASH） software package. Typical biases in the dataset were illustrated via the cases of Beijing （B J）, Wutaishan （WT）, Urumqi （UR） and Henan （HN） stations. The homogenized dataset shows a mean warming trend of 0.261/0.193/0.344℃/decade for the annual series of Tm/Tmax/Tmin, slightly smaller than that of the original dataset by 0.006/0.009/0.007℃/decade. However, considerable differences between the adjusted and original datasets were found at the local scale. The adjusted Tmin series shows a significant warming trend almost everywhere for all seasons, while there are a number of stations with an insignificant trend in the original dataset. The adjusted Tm data exhibit significant warming trends annually as well as for the autumn and winter seasons in northern China, and cooling trends only for the summer in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and parts of central China and for the spring in southwestern China, while the original data show cooling trends at several stations for the annual and seasonal scales in the Qinghai, Shanxi, Hebei, and Xinjiang provinces. The adjusted Tmax data exhibit cooling trends for summers at a number of stations in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers and for springs and winters at a few stations in southwestern China, while the original data show cooling trends at three/four stations for the annual/autumn periods in the Qinghai and Yunnan provinces. In general, the number of stations with a cooling trend was much smaller in the adjusted Tm and Tmax dataset than in the original dataset. The cooling trend for summers is mainly due to cooling in August. The results of homogenization using MASH appear to be robust; in particular, different groups of stations with consideration of elevation led to minor effects in the results.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41130103)the 973 Program (Grant Nos. 2009CB421406 and 2012CB955401)+1 种基金the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (Grant No. EL133E09SE4048)the US National Science Foundation (Grant Nos. AGS-1015926 and AGS-1015957)
文摘In this paper we report an analysis of sampling error uncertainties in mean maximum and minimum temperatures （Tmax and Tmin） carried out on monthly,seasonal and annual scales,including an examination of homogenized and original data collected at 731 meteorological stations across China for the period 1951-2004.Uncertainties of the gridded data and national average,linear trends and their uncertainties,as well as the homogenization effect on uncertainties are assessed.It is shown that the sampling error variances of homogenized Tmax and Tmin,which are larger in winter than in summer,have a marked northwest-southeast gradient distribution,while the sampling error variances of the original data are found to be larger and irregular.Tmax and Tmin increase in all months of the year in the study period 1951-2004,with the largest warming and uncertainties being 0.400℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋ 0.269℃ （10 yr）-1 and 0.578℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋ 0.211℃ （10 yr）-1 in February,and the least being 0.022℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋ 0.085℃ （10 yr）-1 and 0.104℃ （10 yr）-1 ＋0.070℃ （10 yr）-1 in August.Homogenization can remove large uncertainties in the original records resulting from various non-natural changes in China.
文摘In this paper the authors generalize the classic random bipartite graph model, and define a model of the random bipartite multigraphs as follows：let m = m（n） be a positive integer-valued function on n and ζ（n,m;{pk}） the probability space consisting of all the labeled bipartite multigraphs with two vertex sets A ={a_1,a_2,...,a_n} and B = {b_1,b_2,...,b_m}, in which the numbers t_（ai）,b_j of the edges between any two vertices a_i∈A and b_j∈ B are identically distributed independent random variables with distribution P{t_（ai）,b_j=k}=pk,k=0,1,2,...,where pk ≥0 and ∞Σk=0 pk=1. They obtain that X_（c,d,A）, the number of vertices in A with degree between c and d of G_（n,m）∈ζ（n, m;{pk}） has asymptotically Poisson distribution, and answer the following two questions about the space ζ（n,m;{pk}） with {pk} having geometric distribution, binomial distribution and Poisson distribution, respectively. Under which condition for {pk} can there be a function D（n） such that almost every random multigraph G_（n,m）∈ζ（n,m;{pk}） has maximum degree D（n）in A？ under which condition for {pk} has almost every multigraph G（n,m）∈ζ（n,m;{pk}） a unique vertex of maximum degree in A？
文摘Maximum and minimum temperatures time series of Congo-Brazzaville are analyzed for trend and discontinuities over the period 1932 to 2010. Temperatures series show an irregular increase. A total of 8 synoptic stations show positive trends in their annual mean maximum temperature series, and 7 of them are significant, with higher trends for urban stations. Annual mean minimum temperature showed 6 stations having positive trends. This increase is in relation with observations at regional scale. However, the differences are observed between large towns (Brazzaville and Pointe-Noire), and small or rural towns (Dolisie, Sibiti, Impfondo, Djambala). Trends in diurnal temperature range (DTR) are large positive trends in maximum temperature that are mainly observed in cities. The curve of DTR shows a decreasing trend which indicates the increasing of minimum temperatures. The effects of urbanization on temperature trends are investigated. Most stations regarded as urban stations are still useful for trend analysis;being situated on the suburban of the studied cities, they are therefore, not substantially influenced by the urban heat island.
文摘Treatment of skeletal Cl II includes functional orthopedic treatment, head-gears, extraction of the upper premolars and orthognathic surgery. To treat any patient with functional appliances (bite jumping) an adequate overjet is necessary. In this case an 11 years old female patient has skeletal CLII due to mandibular deficiency with ANB angle 8 degrees, overbite: 3 mm, overjet: 1 mm, extremely convex profile and underdeveloped chin due to the hyper muscle contraction of the lower lip to obtain oral seal. To obtain an adequate overjet lower first premolars were extracted and maximum retraction using mini screws (for maximum anchorage) was applied. Afterwards Rahhal functional appliance was used by the patient 16 hours a day for 6 months and 10 hours a day for another 6 months for retention. After that fixed orthodontic treatment was completed. Lateral cephalometrics were taken, traced and analyzed. In the result Skeletal CLI was obtained (ANB 4 degree), straight facial profile, normal over bite overjet and particular chin development were noticed. As a conclusion, in skeletal CLII malocclusions, lower incisor protrusion will cause a contraindication for functional treatment. Extraction of the lower premolars and retraction of the lower incisors followed by functional orthopedic treatment is an efficient method to treat these cases instead of waiting for orthognathic surgery, also reducing the muscle pressure on the chin will change the development characteristics of it.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.12071158)。
文摘The resistance status of a vertex of a connected graph is the sum of the resistance distance between this vertex and any other vertices of the graph. The minimum(maximum,resp.) resistance status of a connected graph is the minimum(maximum, resp.) resistance status of all vertices of the graph. In this paper, we determine the extremal values and corresponding extremal graphs for the minimum(maximum, resp.) resistance status over all unicyclic graphs of fixed order, and we also discuss the dependence of the minimum(maximum, resp.) resistance status on the girth of unicyclic graphs.
基金Supported by the National Natural Foundation of China(10271062,10411076)Supported by the Research Fund for the Doctorial Program of Qufu Normal University(20050701)
文摘In this paper, we discuss the problem of extreme value for Brownian motion with positive drift. We obtain the joint distribution of the maximum excursion and the minimum excursion.
文摘[Objective]The research aimed to analyze temporal and spatial variation characteristics of temperature in Shangqiu City during 1961-2010.[Method]Based on temperature data in eight meteorological stations of Shangqiu during 1961-2010,by using trend analysis method,the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of annual average temperature,annual average maximum and minimum temperatures,annual extreme maximum and minimum temperatures,daily range of annual average temperature in Shangqiu City were analyzed.M-K method was used to determine mutation year of temperature.[Result]The annual average temperature,annual average minimum temperature and annual extreme minimum temperature respectively rose at 0.122,0.255 and 0.488℃/10 a.The variation trend of annual average maximum temperature wasn’t obvious.The daily range of annual average temperature and annual extreme maximum temperature respectively declined at-0.217 and-0.292℃/10 a.Seen from spatial distribution,the increase amplitudes of annual average temperature,annual average minimum temperature and annual extreme minimum temperature were all large in the east and small in the west.The decrease amplitude of daily range of annual average temperature was large in the east and small in the west.The decrease amplitude of annual extreme maximum temperature was large in the west and small in the east.The annual average maximum temperature had trends of increase and decrease.The annual average temperature,annual average minimum temperature and daily range of annual average temperature all mutated in 1997.The annual average maximum temperature didn’t have obvious mutation point.The annual extreme maximum temperature mutated in 1973.The annual extreme minimum temperature respectively mutated in 1989 and 1999.[Conclusion]The research played important guidance significances in adjustment of agricultural production structure,regional climate planning,reasonably using climate resource and replying climate change in Shangqiu City.
文摘The aim of this paper is to determine the maximum values of the track length (Lmax) of alpha particles in Nuclear Track Detector (type CR-39) using a new method by taking the relation between the etching time and the diameter square of alpha particle with different energies at constant bulk etch rate VB (1.45 μm/hr) by using TRACK_TEST program from Brun et al. function and Yu et al. function. Using the new equation, the maximum values of the track lengths of alpha particles measured in CR-39 detector have been found to be in a good agreement with the values measured by using Brun et al. function and Yu et al. function in TRACK_TEST program.
文摘We study a new family of random variables that each arise as the distribution of the maximum or minimum of a random number N of i.i.d. random variables X<sub>1</sub>, X<sub>2</sub>,…, X<sub>N</sub>, each distributed as a variable X with support on [0, 1]. The general scheme is first outlined, and several special cases are studied in detail. Wherever appropriate, we find estimates of the parameter θ in the one-parameter family in question.
文摘Post-processing correction is an effective way to improve the model forecasting result. Especially, the machine learning methods have played increasingly important roles in recent years. Taking the meteorological observational data in a period of two years as the reference, the maximum and minimum temperature predictions of Shenyang station from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and national intelligent grid forecasts are objectively corrected by using wavelet analysis, sliding training and other technologies. The evaluation results show that the sliding training time window of the maximum temperature is smaller than that of the minimum temperature, and their difference is the largest in August, with a difference of 2.6 days. The objective correction product of maximum temperature shows a good performance in spring, while that of minimum temperature performs well throughout the whole year, with an accuracy improvement of 97% to 186%. The correction effect in the central plains is better than in the regions with complex terrain. As for the national intelligent grid forecasts, the objective correction products have shown positive skills in predicting the maximum temperatures in spring (the skill-score reaches 0.59) and in predicting the minimum temperature at most times of the year (the skill-score reaches 0.68).
文摘The weather in Nagano Prefecture, Japan, can be roughly classified into four types according to principal component analysis and k-means clustering. We predicted the extreme values of the maximum daily and hourly precipitation in Nagano Prefecture using the extreme value theory. For the maximum daily precipitation, the vales of ξ in Matsumoto, Karuizawa, Sugadaira, and Saku were positive;therefore, it has no upper bound and tends to take large values. Therefore, it is dangerous and caution is required. The values of ξ in Nagano, Kisofukushima, and Minamishinano were determined to be zero, therefore, there was no upper limit, the probability of obtaining a large value was low, and caution was required. We predicted the maximum return levels for return periods of 10, 20, 50, and 100 years along with respective 95% confidence intervals in Nagano, Matsumoto, Karuizawa, Sugadaira, Saku, Kisofukushima, and Minamishinano. In Matsumoto, the 100-year return level was 182 mm, with a 95% CI [129, 236]. In Minamishinano, the 100-year return level was 285 mm, with a 95% CI [173, 398]. The 100-year return levels for the maximum daily rainfall were 285, 271, and 271 mm in Minamishinano, Saku, and Karuizawa, respectively, where the changes in the daily maximum rainfall were larger than those at other points. Because these values are large, caution is required during heavy rainfall. The 100-year return levels for the maximum daily and hourly precipitation were similar in Karuizawa and Saku. In Sugadaira, the 100-year return level for a maximum hourly rainfall of 107.2 mm was larger than the maximum daily rainfall. Hence, it is necessary to be careful about short-term rainfall events.
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文摘Statisticians are usually concerned with the proposition of new distributions. In this paper we point out that a unified and concise derivation procedure of the distribution of the minimum or maximum of a random number N of indepen-dent and identically distributed continuous random variables Yi,{i = 1,2,…,N} is obtained if one compounds the probability generating function of N with the survival or the distribution func-tion of Yi. Expressions are then derived in closed form for the density, hazard and quantile func-tions of the minimum or maximum. The methodology is illustrated with examples of the distributions proposed by Adamidis and Loukas (1998), Kus (2007), Tahmasbi and Rezaei (2008), Barreto-Souza and Cribari-Neto (2009), Cancho, Louzada, and Barriga (2011) and Louzada, Roman and Cancho (2011).
文摘日最高、最低气温的预报是天气预报业务的重要组成部分,其精度提升对保障社会经济活动具有重要意义。针对数值模式在复杂地形区域系统性偏差显著的问题,本研究以湖南省为试验区(具有“凹”字形三级阶梯地貌,涵盖山地、丘陵、平原等多种下垫面类型),提出一种融合地理特征聚类的深度学习改进方案。基于欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)模式预报场、中国气象局陆面数据同化系统(CMA Land Data Assimilation System,CLDAS)再分析数据和地理变量,首先构建基准卷积神经网络CNN模型并针对地形特征处理策略设置三类对照实验:方案1(K-means聚类地理变量)、方案2(标准化非聚类地理变量)及方案3(无地理变量)。对比实验表明,方案1对24 h最高/低温度平均绝对误差MAE较方案3分别降低4.7%/9.4%,较方案2预报技巧提升2.5%/1.4%,证实地理特征聚类处理对模型性能具有显著增益。因此,优选方案1发展了未来72 h气温预报CNN-TC(Terrain Correction)模型。该模型表现出显著预报优势:相较ECMWF产品,最高/低温MAE降幅达23.5%~37.3%/20.8%~26.9%;较中央气象台指导预报产品SCMOC,最高/低温度误差降低18.7%~27.6%/26.8%~32.3%,其中24 h预报时效下,最高/低温度空间分布MAE区间由1.2~5.8℃/0.8~5.9℃(ECMWF)降低至0.9~1.7℃/0.8~1.7℃,区域稳定性大幅提升。分月检验表明,CNN-TC模型在所有月份均保持最优性能,MAE相对降幅覆盖5.6%~59.1%(最高温度)和6.3%~47.8%(最低温度)。典型强天气过程检验中,模型成功捕捉2022年11月寒潮过程的降温特征,较ECWMF和SCMOC表现均为最优,显示出优异的极端天气应对能力。本研究证实通过深度学习耦合地形特征聚类,可有效解决数值模式在复杂下垫面区域的系统性偏差问题,为山地气候区精细化气象服务提供了可靠的技术方案。
