The complexity of coupled risks,which refer to the compounded effects of interacting uncertainties across multiple interdependent objectives,is inherent to cities functioning as dynamic,interdependent systems.A disrup...The complexity of coupled risks,which refer to the compounded effects of interacting uncertainties across multiple interdependent objectives,is inherent to cities functioning as dynamic,interdependent systems.A disruption in one domain ripples across various urban systems,often with unforeseen consequences.Central to this complexity are people,whose behaviors,needs,and vulnerabilities shape risk evolution and response effectiveness.Realizing cities as complex systems centered on human needs and behaviors is essential to understanding the complexities of coupled urban risks.This paper adopts a complex systems perspective to examine the intricacies of coupled urban risks,emphasizing the critical role of human decisions and behavior in shaping these dynamics.We focus on two key dimensions:cascading hazards in urban environments and cascading failures across interdependent exposed systems in cities.Existing risk assessment models often fail to capture the complexity of these processes,particularly when factoring in human decision-making.To tackle these challenges,we advocate for a standardized taxonomy of cascading hazards,urban components,and their interactions.At its core is a people-centric perspective,emphasizing the bidirectional interactions between people and the systems that serve them.Building on this foundation,we argue the need for an integrated,people-centric risk assessment framework that evaluates event impacts in relation to the hierarchical needs of people and incorporates their preparedness and response capacities.By leveraging real-time data,advanced simulations,and innovative validation methods,this framework aims to enhance the accuracy of coupled urban risk modeling.To effectively manage coupled urban risks,cities can draw from proven strategies in real complex systems.However,given the escalating uncertainties and complexities associated with climate change,prioritizing people-centric strategies is crucial.This approach will empower cities to build resilience not only against known hazards but also against evolving and unforeseen challenges in an increasingly uncertain world.展开更多
Flooding is a natural phenomenon influenced by various factors and occurs frequently across many regions in Indonesia,including Gedebage in Bandung City,West Java.Gedebage is one of the city’s lowest-lying areas,with...Flooding is a natural phenomenon influenced by various factors and occurs frequently across many regions in Indonesia,including Gedebage in Bandung City,West Java.Gedebage is one of the city’s lowest-lying areas,with an elevation of 666-669 meters above sea level,making it particularly prone to recurrent flooding.The main issue is the absence of an integrated disaster management system.This research aims to identify the drainage system’s asset life cycle(planning,implementation,and operation&maintenance)and assess flood risk in Gedebage.The risk assessment was conducted using questionnaires to evaluate the likelihood and potential impact of risks.In response to major risks,appropriate mitigation strategies were developed.Mitigation efforts included both structural and non-structural measures.The structural mitigation design involved selecting technological alternatives using the Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP),a decision-making tool that helps compare multiple criteria and alternatives in a structured way.The results indicate that 27% of the assessed risks were unacceptable,42% undesirable,and 31% acceptable.Flood risk in Gedebage can be managed through structural actions,such as drainage revitalization using a closed system,and non-structural strategies,including human-centric,administrative,and cultural approaches.Based on AHP analysis,the most effective technology was a closed drainage system and porous paving blocks.展开更多
Against the backdrop of intensifying global water scarcity,reclaimed water reuse has emerged as a critical strategy for ecological replenishment of landscape water bodies.However,its potential ecological risks remain ...Against the backdrop of intensifying global water scarcity,reclaimed water reuse has emerged as a critical strategy for ecological replenishment of landscape water bodies.However,its potential ecological risks remain underexplored.This study aims to establish a multidimensional ecological safety evaluation framework for reclaimed water replenishment systems and propose hierarchical risk prevention strategies.By integrating ecotoxicological assays(algae growth inhibition,Daphnia behavioral anomalies,zebrafish embryo toxicity),multimedia exposure modeling,and Monte Carlo probabilistic simulations,the risk contributions and spatial heterogeneity of typical pollutants are quantitatively analyzed.Results revealed that sulfamethoxazole(RQ=2.3)and diclofenac(RQ=1.8)posed high ecological risks,with their effects nonlinearly correlated with hydraulic retention time(HRT<3 days)and nutrient loading(TN>1.2 mg/L).A three-tier risk prevention system was developed based on the“source-pathway-receptor”framework:ozone-activated carbon pretreatment achieved 85%removal efficiency for pharmaceutical contaminants,ecological floating beds enhanced nitrogen and phosphorus retention by 40%-60%,and hydraulic regulation(flow velocity>0.1 m/s)effectively suppressed pathogen proliferation.The innovation of this study lies in establishing a chemical-biological-hydrological coupled risk quantification model for reclaimed water reuse scenarios.The hierarchical prevention standards have been incorporated into local reclaimed water management regulations,providing a scientific foundation and technical paradigm for sustainable landscape water replenishment.展开更多
Related to complexity, there is a wide diversity of concepts, ranging from ‘‘systemic" to ‘‘complex", implying a need for a unified terminology. Per different authors, the main drivers of complexity can ...Related to complexity, there is a wide diversity of concepts, ranging from ‘‘systemic" to ‘‘complex", implying a need for a unified terminology. Per different authors, the main drivers of complexity can be found in human behaviour and uncertainty. This complexity, structural or dynamic can be organizational, technological, or nested in their relationship. ISO international standard 31000:2009 definition of risk management ‘‘coordinated activities to direct and control an organization with regard to risk", when applied to economic sectors, industry, services, project, or activity, it requires the use of models or theories as guidelines. Therefore, as its basic elements comprehend human behaviour and/or uncertainty, risk management to be effective and adapted as much as possible to reality, must be operational within complex systems, as already demonstrated in different R&D environments. Risk management faces demanding challenges when approaching specific and endogenous needs, such as the mining sector. This paper presents a multivariable function analysis methodology approach based on complex system modelling and through real data corresponding to a risk management tool in the mining sector.展开更多
Strategic management of equipment system develop-ment must attach importance to effective strategic risk manage-ment.Aiming at the identification of strategic risk of equipment system development,firstly,the source of...Strategic management of equipment system develop-ment must attach importance to effective strategic risk manage-ment.Aiming at the identification of strategic risk of equipment system development,firstly,the source of strategic risk of equip-ment system development is analyzed and classified.Based on this,a causal loop diagram of strategic risk of equipment sys-tem development based on system dynamics is established.The system dynamics analysis software Vensim PLE is used to carry out the risk influencing factors analysis,risk consequences ana-lysis,risk feedback loop identification and corresponding pre-control measures,and achieves a good risk identification effect.展开更多
Climate change poses a serious threat to the future food security of China, which is among the most disaster-prone countries in the world. This paper discusses the implications of climate change for China＇s agricultu...Climate change poses a serious threat to the future food security of China, which is among the most disaster-prone countries in the world. This paper discusses the implications of climate change for China＇s agricultural sector. Its main objectives are to identify the agricultural risks associated with climate change, to introduce a conceptual framework for agricultural climate risk management and to enumerate key adaptation strategies, challenges, and recommendations.展开更多
Recent economic crises like the 2008 financial tsunami has demonstrated a critical need for better understanding of the topologies and various economic,social,and technical mechanisms of the increasingly interconnecte...Recent economic crises like the 2008 financial tsunami has demonstrated a critical need for better understanding of the topologies and various economic,social,and technical mechanisms of the increasingly interconnected global financial system.Such a system largely relies on the interconnectedness of various financial entities such as banks,firms,and investors through complex financial relationships such as interbank payment networks,investment relations,or supply chains.A network-based perspective or approach is needed to study various financial networks in order to improve or extend financial theories,as well as develop business applications.Moreover,with the advance of big data related technologies,and the availability of huge amounts of financial and economic network data,advanced computing technologies and data analytics that can comprehend such big data are also needed.We referred this approach as financial network analytics.We suggest that it will enable stakeholders better understand the network dynamics within the interconnected global financial system and help designing financial policies such as managing and monitoring banking systemic risk,as well as developing intelligent business applications like banking advisory systems.In this paper,we review the existing research about financial network analytics and then discuss its main research challenges from the economic,social,and technological perspectives.展开更多
Flood control operation,a non-engineering measure,can efficiently manage flood disasters within a river basin.However,numerous uncertainties exit in the real-time operation of flood control systems,creating risks in d...Flood control operation,a non-engineering measure,can efficiently manage flood disasters within a river basin.However,numerous uncertainties exit in the real-time operation of flood control systems,creating risks in decision-making.As an efficient tool to mitigate these risks,risk management has garnered increasing attention in real-time flood control operation.This communication offers a series of suggestions for future research concerning risk management in real-time flood control operation,including risk assessment,risk diagnosis,and risk control methods.展开更多
As more and more Chinese and foreign-funded banks settle in the China(Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone(CSPFTZ), it has become an imperative to enhance risk management of offshore banking. At the international level, th...As more and more Chinese and foreign-funded banks settle in the China(Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone(CSPFTZ), it has become an imperative to enhance risk management of offshore banking. At the international level, the regulatory effort for offshore banking mainly focuses on tax evasion and money laundering.Existing regulatory frameworks have established standards to identify countries providing facilities for money laundering and developed punitive measures. In terms of strategy, it is suggested that, firstly, relevant regulatory measures should be improved in the short term, and it is necessary to define the scope of offshore banking and regulatory measures for Chinese banks and foreign-funded banks under a suitable legal framework. Secondly,it is necessary to establish risk exposure mechanism and risk evaluation system for the offshore banking in the CSPFTZ, while risk management measures are implemented based on on-site supervision. Thirdly, in the medium and long term, it is necessary to enhance management of potential risks which can be created by offshore banking due to deregulation. Fourthly, on the one hand, specific regulations should be formulated to provide a regulatory basis for taxation; on the other hand, tax informational exchange agreements(TIEAs) may be used as a reference for achieving effective tax regulation.展开更多
Through the analysis of our country＇s present construction risk management, the paper points out that the construction risk management system should be established on the construction insurance and guarantee, then pu...Through the analysis of our country＇s present construction risk management, the paper points out that the construction risk management system should be established on the construction insurance and guarantee, then puts forwards detailed countermeasures from six aspects, which consist of basic contents of establishing the construction insurance and guarantee system, issuing related laws which will speed up the implementing of the system, expediting the development of the agencies and market entities of the construction insurance and guarantee, establishing associations of the construction insurance and guarantee, enhancing government＇s support of imolementing the system.展开更多
This study examines the systemic risk caused by major events in the international energy market(IEM)and proposes a management strategy to mitigate it. Using the tail-event driven network(TENET)method, this study const...This study examines the systemic risk caused by major events in the international energy market(IEM)and proposes a management strategy to mitigate it. Using the tail-event driven network(TENET)method, this study constructed a tail-risk spillover network(TRSN) of IEM and simulated the dynamic spillover tail-risk process through the cascading failure mechanism. The study found that renewable energy markets contributed more to systemic risk during the Paris Agreement and the COVID-19pandemic, while fossil energy markets played a larger role during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This study identifies systemically important markets(SM) and critical tail-risk spillover paths as potential sources of systemic risk. The research confirms that cutting off the IEM risk spillover path can greatly reduce systemic risk and the influence of SM. This study offers insights into the management of systemic risk in IEM and provides policy recommendations to reduce the impact of shock events.展开更多
In the last decade,the risk evaluation and the investment decision are among the most prominent issues of efficient project management.Especially,the innovative financial sources could have some specific risk appetite...In the last decade,the risk evaluation and the investment decision are among the most prominent issues of efficient project management.Especially,the innovative financial sources could have some specific risk appetite due to the increasing return of invest-ment.Hence,it is important to uncover the risk factors of fintech investments and investigate the possible impacts with an integrated approach to the strategic priorities of fintech lending.Accordingly,this study aims to analyze a unique risk set and the stra-tegic priorities of fintech lending for clean energy projects.The most important contri-butions to the literature can be listed as to construct an impact-direction map of risk-based strategic priorities for fintech lending in clean energy projects and to measure the possible influences by using a hybrid decision making system with golden cut and bipolar q-rung orthopair fuzzy sets.The extension of multi stepwise weight assessment ratio analysis(M-SWARA)is applied for weighting the risk factors of fintech lending.The extension of elimination and choice translating reality(ELECTRE)is employed for con-structing and ranking the risk-based strategic priorities for clean energy projects.In this process,data is obtained with the evaluation of three different decision makers.The main superiority of the proposed model by comparing with the previous models in the literature is that significant improvements are made to the classical SWARA method so that a new technique is created with the name of M-SWARA.Hence,the causality analysis between the criteria can also be performed in this proposed model.The find-ings demonstrate that security is the most critical risk factor for fintech lending system.Moreover,volume is found as the most critical risk-based strategy for fintech lending.In this context,fintech companies need to take some precautions to effectively manage the security risk.For this purpose,the main risks to information technologies need to be clearly identified.Next,control steps should be put for these risks to be managed properly.Furthermore,it has been determined that the most appropriate strategy to increase the success of the fintech lending system is to increase the number of financi-ers integrated into the system.Within this framework,the platform should be secure and profitable to persuade financiers.展开更多
Risk precontrol management system of coal mines safety( RPMSCS) provides a set of preventive safety management strategy for high-risk coal industries, which has captured extensive attentions. Fundamentally,there are s...Risk precontrol management system of coal mines safety( RPMSCS) provides a set of preventive safety management strategy for high-risk coal industries, which has captured extensive attentions. Fundamentally,there are several membership systems with subsystems in the management system, and the subsystem reliability has an important influence on the management system performance. Through analyzing the structure characteristics of the management system,the phase type distribution was employed to analyze its subsystem reliability by considering repair process and three states including working,fail-abnormal,and fail-emergency states. The reliability indices of the subsystem were derived respectively,including the probabilities that the subsystem in three states,mean time to the first failure, mean time to first failemergency,mean working time to first fail-emergency,and mean maintenance time to the first fail-emergency, are derived respectively. The probabilities of the membership systems and the management system in three states were also derived. Some numerical examples were used to show the procedures. The result is important for better understanding the management system operation and improving its operational performance from the respect of system reliability.展开更多
This article considers threats to a project slipping on budget,schedule and fit-for-purpose.Threat is used here as the collective for risks（quantifiable bad things that can happen）and uncertainties（poorly or not qu...This article considers threats to a project slipping on budget,schedule and fit-for-purpose.Threat is used here as the collective for risks（quantifiable bad things that can happen）and uncertainties（poorly or not quantifiable bad possible events）.Based on experience with projects in developing countries this review considers that（a）project slippage is due to uncertainties rather than risks,（b）while eventuation of some bad things is beyond control,managed execution and oversight are stil the primary means to keeping within budget,on time and fit-for-purpose,（c）improving project delivery is less about bigger and more complex and more about coordinated focus,effectiveness and developing thought-out heuristics,and（d）projects take longer and cost more partly because threat identification is inaccurate,the scope of identified threats is too narrow,and the threat assessment product is not integrated into overall project decision-making and execution.Almost by definition,what is poorly known is likely to cause problems.Yet it is not just the unquantifiability and intangibility of uncertainties causing project slippage,but that they are insufficiently taken into account in project planning and execution that cause budget and time overruns.Improving project performance requires purpose-driven and managed deployment of scarce seasoned professionals.This can be aided with independent oversight by deeply experienced panelists who contribute technical insights and can potentially show that diligence is seen to be done.展开更多
Risk management control （RMC） system is of vital importance to firms, especially the commercial banks. However, the existing models of risk management are always built from the perspective of financial regulators an...Risk management control （RMC） system is of vital importance to firms, especially the commercial banks. However, the existing models of risk management are always built from the perspective of financial regulators and neglect the practicability within the organization. In order to better facilitate the enterprise risk management （ERM）, this paper is trying to construct a new framework of RMC system from the standpoint of the management team. The foundations of our design are COSO ERM report, as well as multi-disciplinary theories and methods, such as economy, psychology, and behavior. We establish a three-component RMC system for commercial banks, which include setting RMC standards, monitoring RMC execution, and rewarding results from standards execution. Then, we introduce an extended three-factor RMC system model. This system and its extended framework are meaningful and referential for both theory and practice of commercial banks＇ risk management.展开更多
Risk management in public procurement is a critical aspect that needs to be addressed in the public sector.Several studies have been conducted to understand the challenges and factors influencing risk management in pu...Risk management in public procurement is a critical aspect that needs to be addressed in the public sector.Several studies have been conducted to understand the challenges and factors influencing risk management in public procurement.These studies have explored the importance of risk management principles,the role of political influence,and the need for effective risk assessment and anticipation.The research has also highlighted the need for specific risk management mechanisms and tools to be implemented in public procurement processes.Risk management reforms in the public sector are essential but often circumvented due to assorted reasons,such as political influence and the emergence of new risks.The research investigation employs a quantitative research design.A total of 380 questionnaires were recovered from respondents.The study showed that the public sector has a procurement risk management system that is effective,but there may be some areas for improvement in the prequalification process,onboarding process,and support provided to newly onboarded suppliers.Additionally,the public sector used some strategies to mitigate and control contract risks during the procurement process,but there were some areas for improvement in the review and lessons learned process,risk mitigation measures,contract monitoring and performance evaluation mechanisms,and communication and documentation process.Finally,the results suggest that there were constraints placed on the risk management strategies currently utilized by professionals working in the public sector.These constraints include insufficient support and buy-in from senior management and stakeholders,bureaucratic or administrative hurdles,inadequate policies and regulations,insufficient training and skill development opportunities,and insufficient resources.The study highlights the significance of tackling risk management in the realm of public procurement and offers valuable perspectives on avenues for enhancement,obstacles encountered by practitioners,and the necessity of thorough evaluation and revisions.Through the adoption of the suggestions originating from this study,governmental entities can improve their procurement risk management frameworks and guarantee improved adherence to risk management principles.展开更多
Climate services (CS) are crucial for mitigating and managing the impacts and risks associated with climate-induced disasters. While evidence over the past decade underscores their effectiveness across various domains...Climate services (CS) are crucial for mitigating and managing the impacts and risks associated with climate-induced disasters. While evidence over the past decade underscores their effectiveness across various domains, particularly agriculture, to maximize their potential, it is crucial to identify emerging priority areas and existing research gaps for future research agendas. As a contribution to this effort, this paper employs the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology to review the state-of-the-art in the field of climate services for disaster risk management. A comprehensive search across five literature databases combined with a snowball search method using ResearchRabbit was conducted and yielded 242 peer-reviewed articles, book sections, and reports over 2013-2023 after the screening process. The analysis revealed flood, drought, and food insecurity as major climate-related disasters addressed in the reviewed literature. Major climate services addressed included early warning systems, (sub)seasonal forecasts and impact-based warnings. Grounded in the policy processes’ theoretical perspective, the main focus identified and discussed three prevailing policy-oriented priority areas: 1) development of climate services, 2) use-adoption-uptake, and 3) evaluation of climate services. In response to the limitations of the prevalent supply-driven and top-down approach to climate services promotion, co-production emerges as a cross-cutting critical aspect of the identified priority areas. Despite the extensive research in the field, more attention is needed, particularly pronounced in the science-policy interface perspective, which in practice bridges scientific knowledge and policy decisions for effective policy processes. This perspective offers a valuable analytical lens as an entry point for further investigation. Hence, future research agendas would generate insightful evidence by scrutinizing this critical aspect given its importance to institutions and climate services capacity, to better understand intricate facets of the development and the integration of climate services into disaster risk management.展开更多
In recent years, the number of the listing corporations in China is increasing, and the promotion of the national economic development is also more obvious. But in the process, because of the short time onto the marke...In recent years, the number of the listing corporations in China is increasing, and the promotion of the national economic development is also more obvious. But in the process, because of the short time onto the market and the lack of the expvrience, some of the listed companies also cannot be compared with the enterprises in the western developed countries in a large extent. Especially in the aspect of the financial management, there are many defects. For example, the control efforts of the financial risks arc inadequate, and the awareness of the management personnel and the employees on the risks is weak, and so on In this case, the listed corporations must strengthen the management of the company＇s financial risks, develop the more comprehensive financial risk managernent system, and thus ensurc that the companies can have the healthy, stable and sustainable development.展开更多
The potential demand on financial risk management has being increased considerably by the reason of Basel 11 regulations and instabilities in economy. In recent years, financial institutions and companies have been st...The potential demand on financial risk management has being increased considerably by the reason of Basel 11 regulations and instabilities in economy. In recent years, financial institutions and companies have been struggled for building up intensive financial risk management tools due to Basel II guidance on establishing financial self-assessment systems. In this respect, decision support system has a significant role on effectuating intensive financial risk management roadmap. In this study, a reformative financial risk management system is presented with the combination of determining financial risks with their importance, calculating risk scores and making suggestions based on detected risk scores by applying corrective actions. First, financial risk factors and indicators of these risk variables are selected and weights of these variables are specified by using fuzzy goal programming. After that, total risk scores are calculated and amendatory financial activities are appeared by means of expertons method which also provides possibilities of the alternative decisions. To illustrate the performance of integrated and multistage decision support system, a survey is applied on the end users.展开更多
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71821001,72371109,72071088,72074089,and 51938004)Strategic Study Project of Chinese Academy of Engineering(2022-JB-02)Project of Interdisciplinary Research Support Program in Huazhong University of Science and Technology(2023-32)。
文摘The complexity of coupled risks,which refer to the compounded effects of interacting uncertainties across multiple interdependent objectives,is inherent to cities functioning as dynamic,interdependent systems.A disruption in one domain ripples across various urban systems,often with unforeseen consequences.Central to this complexity are people,whose behaviors,needs,and vulnerabilities shape risk evolution and response effectiveness.Realizing cities as complex systems centered on human needs and behaviors is essential to understanding the complexities of coupled urban risks.This paper adopts a complex systems perspective to examine the intricacies of coupled urban risks,emphasizing the critical role of human decisions and behavior in shaping these dynamics.We focus on two key dimensions:cascading hazards in urban environments and cascading failures across interdependent exposed systems in cities.Existing risk assessment models often fail to capture the complexity of these processes,particularly when factoring in human decision-making.To tackle these challenges,we advocate for a standardized taxonomy of cascading hazards,urban components,and their interactions.At its core is a people-centric perspective,emphasizing the bidirectional interactions between people and the systems that serve them.Building on this foundation,we argue the need for an integrated,people-centric risk assessment framework that evaluates event impacts in relation to the hierarchical needs of people and incorporates their preparedness and response capacities.By leveraging real-time data,advanced simulations,and innovative validation methods,this framework aims to enhance the accuracy of coupled urban risk modeling.To effectively manage coupled urban risks,cities can draw from proven strategies in real complex systems.However,given the escalating uncertainties and complexities associated with climate change,prioritizing people-centric strategies is crucial.This approach will empower cities to build resilience not only against known hazards but also against evolving and unforeseen challenges in an increasingly uncertain world.
基金supported by the Research,Community Service,and Innovation/Penelitian,Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat dan Inovasi(P2MI)scheme of the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering,Bandung Institute of Technology/Institut Teknologi Bandung(ITB),grant number[Dean's Decree No.71B/IT1.C06/SK-TA/2023].
文摘Flooding is a natural phenomenon influenced by various factors and occurs frequently across many regions in Indonesia,including Gedebage in Bandung City,West Java.Gedebage is one of the city’s lowest-lying areas,with an elevation of 666-669 meters above sea level,making it particularly prone to recurrent flooding.The main issue is the absence of an integrated disaster management system.This research aims to identify the drainage system’s asset life cycle(planning,implementation,and operation&maintenance)and assess flood risk in Gedebage.The risk assessment was conducted using questionnaires to evaluate the likelihood and potential impact of risks.In response to major risks,appropriate mitigation strategies were developed.Mitigation efforts included both structural and non-structural measures.The structural mitigation design involved selecting technological alternatives using the Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP),a decision-making tool that helps compare multiple criteria and alternatives in a structured way.The results indicate that 27% of the assessed risks were unacceptable,42% undesirable,and 31% acceptable.Flood risk in Gedebage can be managed through structural actions,such as drainage revitalization using a closed system,and non-structural strategies,including human-centric,administrative,and cultural approaches.Based on AHP analysis,the most effective technology was a closed drainage system and porous paving blocks.
文摘Against the backdrop of intensifying global water scarcity,reclaimed water reuse has emerged as a critical strategy for ecological replenishment of landscape water bodies.However,its potential ecological risks remain underexplored.This study aims to establish a multidimensional ecological safety evaluation framework for reclaimed water replenishment systems and propose hierarchical risk prevention strategies.By integrating ecotoxicological assays(algae growth inhibition,Daphnia behavioral anomalies,zebrafish embryo toxicity),multimedia exposure modeling,and Monte Carlo probabilistic simulations,the risk contributions and spatial heterogeneity of typical pollutants are quantitatively analyzed.Results revealed that sulfamethoxazole(RQ=2.3)and diclofenac(RQ=1.8)posed high ecological risks,with their effects nonlinearly correlated with hydraulic retention time(HRT<3 days)and nutrient loading(TN>1.2 mg/L).A three-tier risk prevention system was developed based on the“source-pathway-receptor”framework:ozone-activated carbon pretreatment achieved 85%removal efficiency for pharmaceutical contaminants,ecological floating beds enhanced nitrogen and phosphorus retention by 40%-60%,and hydraulic regulation(flow velocity>0.1 m/s)effectively suppressed pathogen proliferation.The innovation of this study lies in establishing a chemical-biological-hydrological coupled risk quantification model for reclaimed water reuse scenarios.The hierarchical prevention standards have been incorporated into local reclaimed water management regulations,providing a scientific foundation and technical paradigm for sustainable landscape water replenishment.
文摘Related to complexity, there is a wide diversity of concepts, ranging from ‘‘systemic" to ‘‘complex", implying a need for a unified terminology. Per different authors, the main drivers of complexity can be found in human behaviour and uncertainty. This complexity, structural or dynamic can be organizational, technological, or nested in their relationship. ISO international standard 31000:2009 definition of risk management ‘‘coordinated activities to direct and control an organization with regard to risk", when applied to economic sectors, industry, services, project, or activity, it requires the use of models or theories as guidelines. Therefore, as its basic elements comprehend human behaviour and/or uncertainty, risk management to be effective and adapted as much as possible to reality, must be operational within complex systems, as already demonstrated in different R&D environments. Risk management faces demanding challenges when approaching specific and endogenous needs, such as the mining sector. This paper presents a multivariable function analysis methodology approach based on complex system modelling and through real data corresponding to a risk management tool in the mining sector.
文摘Strategic management of equipment system develop-ment must attach importance to effective strategic risk manage-ment.Aiming at the identification of strategic risk of equipment system development,firstly,the source of strategic risk of equip-ment system development is analyzed and classified.Based on this,a causal loop diagram of strategic risk of equipment sys-tem development based on system dynamics is established.The system dynamics analysis software Vensim PLE is used to carry out the risk influencing factors analysis,risk consequences ana-lysis,risk feedback loop identification and corresponding pre-control measures,and achieves a good risk identification effect.
基金supported by the World Bank,NSFCC-GIAR(71161140351)
文摘Climate change poses a serious threat to the future food security of China, which is among the most disaster-prone countries in the world. This paper discusses the implications of climate change for China＇s agricultural sector. Its main objectives are to identify the agricultural risks associated with climate change, to introduce a conceptual framework for agricultural climate risk management and to enumerate key adaptation strategies, challenges, and recommendations.
基金This research was partially supported by Department of informatics,Faculty of Economics,Business Administration and Information Technology,University of Zurich.
文摘Recent economic crises like the 2008 financial tsunami has demonstrated a critical need for better understanding of the topologies and various economic,social,and technical mechanisms of the increasingly interconnected global financial system.Such a system largely relies on the interconnectedness of various financial entities such as banks,firms,and investors through complex financial relationships such as interbank payment networks,investment relations,or supply chains.A network-based perspective or approach is needed to study various financial networks in order to improve or extend financial theories,as well as develop business applications.Moreover,with the advance of big data related technologies,and the availability of huge amounts of financial and economic network data,advanced computing technologies and data analytics that can comprehend such big data are also needed.We referred this approach as financial network analytics.We suggest that it will enable stakeholders better understand the network dynamics within the interconnected global financial system and help designing financial policies such as managing and monitoring banking systemic risk,as well as developing intelligent business applications like banking advisory systems.In this paper,we review the existing research about financial network analytics and then discuss its main research challenges from the economic,social,and technological perspectives.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51909062)the National Key R&D Program(Grant No.2022YFC3202801).
文摘Flood control operation,a non-engineering measure,can efficiently manage flood disasters within a river basin.However,numerous uncertainties exit in the real-time operation of flood control systems,creating risks in decision-making.As an efficient tool to mitigate these risks,risk management has garnered increasing attention in real-time flood control operation.This communication offers a series of suggestions for future research concerning risk management in real-time flood control operation,including risk assessment,risk diagnosis,and risk control methods.
文摘As more and more Chinese and foreign-funded banks settle in the China(Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone(CSPFTZ), it has become an imperative to enhance risk management of offshore banking. At the international level, the regulatory effort for offshore banking mainly focuses on tax evasion and money laundering.Existing regulatory frameworks have established standards to identify countries providing facilities for money laundering and developed punitive measures. In terms of strategy, it is suggested that, firstly, relevant regulatory measures should be improved in the short term, and it is necessary to define the scope of offshore banking and regulatory measures for Chinese banks and foreign-funded banks under a suitable legal framework. Secondly,it is necessary to establish risk exposure mechanism and risk evaluation system for the offshore banking in the CSPFTZ, while risk management measures are implemented based on on-site supervision. Thirdly, in the medium and long term, it is necessary to enhance management of potential risks which can be created by offshore banking due to deregulation. Fourthly, on the one hand, specific regulations should be formulated to provide a regulatory basis for taxation; on the other hand, tax informational exchange agreements(TIEAs) may be used as a reference for achieving effective tax regulation.
文摘Through the analysis of our country＇s present construction risk management, the paper points out that the construction risk management system should be established on the construction insurance and guarantee, then puts forwards detailed countermeasures from six aspects, which consist of basic contents of establishing the construction insurance and guarantee system, issuing related laws which will speed up the implementing of the system, expediting the development of the agencies and market entities of the construction insurance and guarantee, establishing associations of the construction insurance and guarantee, enhancing government＇s support of imolementing the system.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(71974001,72374001)National Social Science Foundation of China(22ZDA112,19BTJ014)+3 种基金the Social Science Foundation of the Ministry of Education of China(21YJAZH081)Anhui Provincial Natural Science Foundation(2108085Y24)the University Social Science Research Project of Anhui Province(2022AH020048,SK2020A0051)the Anhui University of Finance and Economics Graduate Research Innovation Funds(ACYC2021390)。
文摘This study examines the systemic risk caused by major events in the international energy market(IEM)and proposes a management strategy to mitigate it. Using the tail-event driven network(TENET)method, this study constructed a tail-risk spillover network(TRSN) of IEM and simulated the dynamic spillover tail-risk process through the cascading failure mechanism. The study found that renewable energy markets contributed more to systemic risk during the Paris Agreement and the COVID-19pandemic, while fossil energy markets played a larger role during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This study identifies systemically important markets(SM) and critical tail-risk spillover paths as potential sources of systemic risk. The research confirms that cutting off the IEM risk spillover path can greatly reduce systemic risk and the influence of SM. This study offers insights into the management of systemic risk in IEM and provides policy recommendations to reduce the impact of shock events.
基金was the Key Scientific Research Project of Colleges and Universities in Henan Province“Research on the key role of Investment in the Optimization and upgrading of Industrial structure in Henan Province”(22A790014)National scientific research project cultivation fund project"Research on the Endogenous Mechanism,Performance Evaluation and Optimization Path of Science and Technology Finance Boosting China’s High quality Economic Development"(XKPY-2022030).
文摘In the last decade,the risk evaluation and the investment decision are among the most prominent issues of efficient project management.Especially,the innovative financial sources could have some specific risk appetite due to the increasing return of invest-ment.Hence,it is important to uncover the risk factors of fintech investments and investigate the possible impacts with an integrated approach to the strategic priorities of fintech lending.Accordingly,this study aims to analyze a unique risk set and the stra-tegic priorities of fintech lending for clean energy projects.The most important contri-butions to the literature can be listed as to construct an impact-direction map of risk-based strategic priorities for fintech lending in clean energy projects and to measure the possible influences by using a hybrid decision making system with golden cut and bipolar q-rung orthopair fuzzy sets.The extension of multi stepwise weight assessment ratio analysis(M-SWARA)is applied for weighting the risk factors of fintech lending.The extension of elimination and choice translating reality(ELECTRE)is employed for con-structing and ranking the risk-based strategic priorities for clean energy projects.In this process,data is obtained with the evaluation of three different decision makers.The main superiority of the proposed model by comparing with the previous models in the literature is that significant improvements are made to the classical SWARA method so that a new technique is created with the name of M-SWARA.Hence,the causality analysis between the criteria can also be performed in this proposed model.The find-ings demonstrate that security is the most critical risk factor for fintech lending system.Moreover,volume is found as the most critical risk-based strategy for fintech lending.In this context,fintech companies need to take some precautions to effectively manage the security risk.For this purpose,the main risks to information technologies need to be clearly identified.Next,control steps should be put for these risks to be managed properly.Furthermore,it has been determined that the most appropriate strategy to increase the success of the fintech lending system is to increase the number of financi-ers integrated into the system.Within this framework,the platform should be secure and profitable to persuade financiers.
文摘Risk precontrol management system of coal mines safety( RPMSCS) provides a set of preventive safety management strategy for high-risk coal industries, which has captured extensive attentions. Fundamentally,there are several membership systems with subsystems in the management system, and the subsystem reliability has an important influence on the management system performance. Through analyzing the structure characteristics of the management system,the phase type distribution was employed to analyze its subsystem reliability by considering repair process and three states including working,fail-abnormal,and fail-emergency states. The reliability indices of the subsystem were derived respectively,including the probabilities that the subsystem in three states,mean time to the first failure, mean time to first failemergency,mean working time to first fail-emergency,and mean maintenance time to the first fail-emergency, are derived respectively. The probabilities of the membership systems and the management system in three states were also derived. Some numerical examples were used to show the procedures. The result is important for better understanding the management system operation and improving its operational performance from the respect of system reliability.
文摘This article considers threats to a project slipping on budget,schedule and fit-for-purpose.Threat is used here as the collective for risks（quantifiable bad things that can happen）and uncertainties（poorly or not quantifiable bad possible events）.Based on experience with projects in developing countries this review considers that（a）project slippage is due to uncertainties rather than risks,（b）while eventuation of some bad things is beyond control,managed execution and oversight are stil the primary means to keeping within budget,on time and fit-for-purpose,（c）improving project delivery is less about bigger and more complex and more about coordinated focus,effectiveness and developing thought-out heuristics,and（d）projects take longer and cost more partly because threat identification is inaccurate,the scope of identified threats is too narrow,and the threat assessment product is not integrated into overall project decision-making and execution.Almost by definition,what is poorly known is likely to cause problems.Yet it is not just the unquantifiability and intangibility of uncertainties causing project slippage,but that they are insufficiently taken into account in project planning and execution that cause budget and time overruns.Improving project performance requires purpose-driven and managed deployment of scarce seasoned professionals.This can be aided with independent oversight by deeply experienced panelists who contribute technical insights and can potentially show that diligence is seen to be done.
文摘Risk management control （RMC） system is of vital importance to firms, especially the commercial banks. However, the existing models of risk management are always built from the perspective of financial regulators and neglect the practicability within the organization. In order to better facilitate the enterprise risk management （ERM）, this paper is trying to construct a new framework of RMC system from the standpoint of the management team. The foundations of our design are COSO ERM report, as well as multi-disciplinary theories and methods, such as economy, psychology, and behavior. We establish a three-component RMC system for commercial banks, which include setting RMC standards, monitoring RMC execution, and rewarding results from standards execution. Then, we introduce an extended three-factor RMC system model. This system and its extended framework are meaningful and referential for both theory and practice of commercial banks＇ risk management.
文摘Risk management in public procurement is a critical aspect that needs to be addressed in the public sector.Several studies have been conducted to understand the challenges and factors influencing risk management in public procurement.These studies have explored the importance of risk management principles,the role of political influence,and the need for effective risk assessment and anticipation.The research has also highlighted the need for specific risk management mechanisms and tools to be implemented in public procurement processes.Risk management reforms in the public sector are essential but often circumvented due to assorted reasons,such as political influence and the emergence of new risks.The research investigation employs a quantitative research design.A total of 380 questionnaires were recovered from respondents.The study showed that the public sector has a procurement risk management system that is effective,but there may be some areas for improvement in the prequalification process,onboarding process,and support provided to newly onboarded suppliers.Additionally,the public sector used some strategies to mitigate and control contract risks during the procurement process,but there were some areas for improvement in the review and lessons learned process,risk mitigation measures,contract monitoring and performance evaluation mechanisms,and communication and documentation process.Finally,the results suggest that there were constraints placed on the risk management strategies currently utilized by professionals working in the public sector.These constraints include insufficient support and buy-in from senior management and stakeholders,bureaucratic or administrative hurdles,inadequate policies and regulations,insufficient training and skill development opportunities,and insufficient resources.The study highlights the significance of tackling risk management in the realm of public procurement and offers valuable perspectives on avenues for enhancement,obstacles encountered by practitioners,and the necessity of thorough evaluation and revisions.Through the adoption of the suggestions originating from this study,governmental entities can improve their procurement risk management frameworks and guarantee improved adherence to risk management principles.
文摘Climate services (CS) are crucial for mitigating and managing the impacts and risks associated with climate-induced disasters. While evidence over the past decade underscores their effectiveness across various domains, particularly agriculture, to maximize their potential, it is crucial to identify emerging priority areas and existing research gaps for future research agendas. As a contribution to this effort, this paper employs the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology to review the state-of-the-art in the field of climate services for disaster risk management. A comprehensive search across five literature databases combined with a snowball search method using ResearchRabbit was conducted and yielded 242 peer-reviewed articles, book sections, and reports over 2013-2023 after the screening process. The analysis revealed flood, drought, and food insecurity as major climate-related disasters addressed in the reviewed literature. Major climate services addressed included early warning systems, (sub)seasonal forecasts and impact-based warnings. Grounded in the policy processes’ theoretical perspective, the main focus identified and discussed three prevailing policy-oriented priority areas: 1) development of climate services, 2) use-adoption-uptake, and 3) evaluation of climate services. In response to the limitations of the prevalent supply-driven and top-down approach to climate services promotion, co-production emerges as a cross-cutting critical aspect of the identified priority areas. Despite the extensive research in the field, more attention is needed, particularly pronounced in the science-policy interface perspective, which in practice bridges scientific knowledge and policy decisions for effective policy processes. This perspective offers a valuable analytical lens as an entry point for further investigation. Hence, future research agendas would generate insightful evidence by scrutinizing this critical aspect given its importance to institutions and climate services capacity, to better understand intricate facets of the development and the integration of climate services into disaster risk management.
文摘In recent years, the number of the listing corporations in China is increasing, and the promotion of the national economic development is also more obvious. But in the process, because of the short time onto the market and the lack of the expvrience, some of the listed companies also cannot be compared with the enterprises in the western developed countries in a large extent. Especially in the aspect of the financial management, there are many defects. For example, the control efforts of the financial risks arc inadequate, and the awareness of the management personnel and the employees on the risks is weak, and so on In this case, the listed corporations must strengthen the management of the company＇s financial risks, develop the more comprehensive financial risk managernent system, and thus ensurc that the companies can have the healthy, stable and sustainable development.
文摘The potential demand on financial risk management has being increased considerably by the reason of Basel 11 regulations and instabilities in economy. In recent years, financial institutions and companies have been struggled for building up intensive financial risk management tools due to Basel II guidance on establishing financial self-assessment systems. In this respect, decision support system has a significant role on effectuating intensive financial risk management roadmap. In this study, a reformative financial risk management system is presented with the combination of determining financial risks with their importance, calculating risk scores and making suggestions based on detected risk scores by applying corrective actions. First, financial risk factors and indicators of these risk variables are selected and weights of these variables are specified by using fuzzy goal programming. After that, total risk scores are calculated and amendatory financial activities are appeared by means of expertons method which also provides possibilities of the alternative decisions. To illustrate the performance of integrated and multistage decision support system, a survey is applied on the end users.
