With Zunyi CINRAD/CD Doppler radar data and other data,a hail wind and heavy rainfall in short time occurred on July 10,2008 in northern Guizhou Province was analyzed in this study.The results showed that the system w...With Zunyi CINRAD/CD Doppler radar data and other data,a hail wind and heavy rainfall in short time occurred on July 10,2008 in northern Guizhou Province was analyzed in this study.The results showed that the system was affected by the southward of cold air pressure in a low-shear vortex zone.Echo monomer initially developed and arranged along the shear line,and there was hail weather in echo location with intense development.Before the hail shooting,the strongest echo value was 60-65 dBz.When the hail shooting,the low-elevation echo intensity sharply increased to 55-60 dBz with echo height of 11-15 km and VIL values>35 kg/m2,and its echo distribution showed band characteristics of vortex.When the vortex center moved to the original echo,echo intensity increased,resulting in a profound and lasting convergence of cyclones,and hail or strong wind occurred on the ground.Hail and strong short-term precipitation in towns of northern Renhuai might be related to the left inverted U-terrain.Echoes from Yongxing and Yuquan in Meitan,Xuekong and Xitou in Renhuai were the supercell echoes,and other regional hail shooting echoes were strong multi-monomer echoes.展开更多
为提升低空风切变预报精度,本文综合运用欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代再分析资料[European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)fifth-generation reanalysis data,ERA5]和美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Envi...为提升低空风切变预报精度,本文综合运用欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代再分析资料[European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)fifth-generation reanalysis data,ERA5]和美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)的FNL全球再分析资料(Final Operational Global Analysis)、先进星载热发射和反射辐射仪全球数字高程模型以及兰州中川机场的实况观测资料,采用中尺度数值天气预报模式(Weather Research and Forecasting Model,WRF)、WRF结合计算流体动力学(Computational Fluid Dynamics,CFD)方法、长短期神经网络(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)方法,对2021年4月15-16日兰州中川机场的两次风切变过程进行模拟分析。结果表明:(1)在小于1 km的网格中使用大涡模拟,WRF模式在单个站点风速模拟任务中表现更好,但在近地面水平风场风速模拟效果上,不如WRF模式结合计算流体力学模型方案;(2)对于飞机降落过程中遭遇的两次低空风切变的模拟,WRF-LES和WRF-CFD两种模式都可以模拟出第一次低空风切变,而第二次受传入模式的WRF风速数据值较小的影响,两种模式风速差都没有达到阈值,需要在后续工作中进一步验证;(3)低风速条件(6 m·s^(-1))下,基于LSTM的单变量风速预测模型平均绝对误差基本维持在0.59 m·s^(-1),能较好地把握不同地形与环流背景条件下风速变化的非线性关系,虽然受到WRF误差和观测要素不全的限制,多变量风速预测能在保证平均绝对百分比误差小于6.60%的情况下,以更高的计算效率和泛化能力实现风速预测。本文不仅验证了WRF-CFD和WRF-LES耦合方案在风场和低空风切变预报中的差异,还探讨了基于LSTM的风速预测的可行性和准确性,期望为提高风场模拟精度,缩短精细风场模拟时间提供新的视角和方法。展开更多
文摘With Zunyi CINRAD/CD Doppler radar data and other data,a hail wind and heavy rainfall in short time occurred on July 10,2008 in northern Guizhou Province was analyzed in this study.The results showed that the system was affected by the southward of cold air pressure in a low-shear vortex zone.Echo monomer initially developed and arranged along the shear line,and there was hail weather in echo location with intense development.Before the hail shooting,the strongest echo value was 60-65 dBz.When the hail shooting,the low-elevation echo intensity sharply increased to 55-60 dBz with echo height of 11-15 km and VIL values>35 kg/m2,and its echo distribution showed band characteristics of vortex.When the vortex center moved to the original echo,echo intensity increased,resulting in a profound and lasting convergence of cyclones,and hail or strong wind occurred on the ground.Hail and strong short-term precipitation in towns of northern Renhuai might be related to the left inverted U-terrain.Echoes from Yongxing and Yuquan in Meitan,Xuekong and Xitou in Renhuai were the supercell echoes,and other regional hail shooting echoes were strong multi-monomer echoes.
文摘为提升低空风切变预报精度,本文综合运用欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代再分析资料[European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)fifth-generation reanalysis data,ERA5]和美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)的FNL全球再分析资料(Final Operational Global Analysis)、先进星载热发射和反射辐射仪全球数字高程模型以及兰州中川机场的实况观测资料,采用中尺度数值天气预报模式(Weather Research and Forecasting Model,WRF)、WRF结合计算流体动力学(Computational Fluid Dynamics,CFD)方法、长短期神经网络(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)方法,对2021年4月15-16日兰州中川机场的两次风切变过程进行模拟分析。结果表明:(1)在小于1 km的网格中使用大涡模拟,WRF模式在单个站点风速模拟任务中表现更好,但在近地面水平风场风速模拟效果上,不如WRF模式结合计算流体力学模型方案;(2)对于飞机降落过程中遭遇的两次低空风切变的模拟,WRF-LES和WRF-CFD两种模式都可以模拟出第一次低空风切变,而第二次受传入模式的WRF风速数据值较小的影响,两种模式风速差都没有达到阈值,需要在后续工作中进一步验证;(3)低风速条件(6 m·s^(-1))下,基于LSTM的单变量风速预测模型平均绝对误差基本维持在0.59 m·s^(-1),能较好地把握不同地形与环流背景条件下风速变化的非线性关系,虽然受到WRF误差和观测要素不全的限制,多变量风速预测能在保证平均绝对百分比误差小于6.60%的情况下,以更高的计算效率和泛化能力实现风速预测。本文不仅验证了WRF-CFD和WRF-LES耦合方案在风场和低空风切变预报中的差异,还探讨了基于LSTM的风速预测的可行性和准确性,期望为提高风场模拟精度,缩短精细风场模拟时间提供新的视角和方法。
