Purpose:The study examines the synergy and hysteresis in the evolution of funding and its supported literature,depicts their temporal correlation mechanism,which aids in improving trend predictions.Design/methodology/...Purpose:The study examines the synergy and hysteresis in the evolution of funding and its supported literature,depicts their temporal correlation mechanism,which aids in improving trend predictions.Design/methodology/approach:The study uses the LDA model to identify topics in funding texts and supported papers.A cosine similarity algorithm was employed to estimate the nexus between topics and construct the topic evolution time series.Similarly,the hysteresis effect in topic evolution is analyzed based on topic popularity and content,leading to insights into their temporal correlation mechanism.Findings:The study finds that fund and sponsored paper topics exhibit strong collaboration with a noticeable lag in evolution.The fund topics significantly influence sponsored paper topics after a two-year lag.Moreover,the lag effect is inversely proportional to the topic’s similarity.Research limitations:We use the LDA model to determine the hysteresis effect in topic evolution despite its limitations in handling long-tail words and domain-specific vocabulary.Furthermore,the timing of the emergence of the focal topic in funds is undermined,affecting the findings.Practical implications:These findings enhance the accuracy and scientific validity of trend prediction.Estimating and identifying patterns can help technology managers anticipate future research hotspots,supporting informed decision-making and technology management.Originality/value:This study introduces a research framework to quantitatively and visually analyze the hysteresis effect,revealing the correlation and evolutionary patterns between fund research topics and their funded papers.展开更多
In this study,we use observations from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry(SABER)instrument onboard the Thermosphere–Ionosphere–Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics(TIMED)satellite to de...In this study,we use observations from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry(SABER)instrument onboard the Thermosphere–Ionosphere–Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics(TIMED)satellite to develop and apply a new local-time binning method to investigate the long-term evolution of mesospheric water vapor at high latitudes.The proposed method accounts for the gradual local-time drift of the SABER orbit by aligning seasonal observation windows and selecting samples observed at similar local times.This approach minimizes tidal aliasing and ensures more consistent sampling,yielding more reliable estimates of long-term water vapor trends at high latitudes.The results show that drying signals primarily appear in the polar regions.However,in the southern hemisphere,a drying trend is observed only in autumn,whereas winter and summer mainly show moistening trends.In contrast,the northern hemisphere exhibits drying signals in the polar regions during all seasons,showing a clear seasonal asymmetry.Additionally,the water vapor trend in the northern hemisphere is particularly pronounced in February(late winter),with moistening reaching up to+2.0 ppmv.The winter in the southern hemisphere(July–August)also shows moistening,but the trend is still weaker than in the northern hemisphere.These differences highlight the strong moistening trend in the northern hemisphere during winter and underscore the significant asymmetry in seasonal water vapor changes between the two hemispheres.These findings emphasize the limitations of water vapor trend estimates across different seasons and latitudes.Moreover,they provide new insights into the spatiotemporal variability associated with tidal structures,underscoring the importance of optimizing local-time sampling strategies for reliable long-term trend detection.展开更多
The Yangtze River Delta(YRD)region has witnessed a consistent decrease in NO_(2),CO,and PM_(2.5) from 2016 to 2023.However,ozone has exhibited fluctuating patterns.Quantifying ozone contributions from emissions,both w...The Yangtze River Delta(YRD)region has witnessed a consistent decrease in NO_(2),CO,and PM_(2.5) from 2016 to 2023.However,ozone has exhibited fluctuating patterns.Quantifying ozone contributions from emissions,both within and outside the YRD,is essential for understanding city-cluster-scale ozone pollution(CCSOP).To address these concerns,a comprehensive approach combining Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filtering,Empirical Orthogonal Function,Absolute Principal Component Score,andMultiple Linear Regression methods(KZ-EOF-APCs-MLR)was employed to quantify the impacts of meteorological factors,local and non-local emission contributions of ozone(LECO and NECO).Emission changes were identified as the predominant factor shaping annual fluctuations in ambient ozone.Notably,during the previous andmiddle stages of the COVID-19 pandemic(from2017 to 2021),emissions reductions led to a marked decrease in YRD ozone levels(-7.01μg/m^(3)),with a pronounced rebound post-pandemic(2022 to 2023)(+8.04μg/m^(3)).Seasonally,the emissioninduced ozone exhibited fluctuating upward trend during autumn and winter,suggesting a transition of ozone pollution towards colder seasons.Spatially,high LECO concentrated in the eastern YRD(EYRD)across spring,autumn,and winter,becoming prominent in the central YRD(CYRD)during summer.During CCSOP,the CYRD exhibited the highest LECO and exceedance frequency(20.82μg/m^(3) and 45.27%).LECO explained a large portion of ozone variability during CCSOP,particularly in the EYRD,while NECO showed less explanatory power but consistently high contributions(148.05±15.52μg/m^(3)).These findings offer valuable insights for a deeper understanding of the evolving patterns of ozone pollution and the issue of CCSOP in the YRD.展开更多
The Pearl River Delta(PRD)region has been identified as a significant hotspot of wet ammonium deposition.However,the absence of long-term monitoring data in the area hinders the comprehension of the historical trends ...The Pearl River Delta(PRD)region has been identified as a significant hotspot of wet ammonium deposition.However,the absence of long-term monitoring data in the area hinders the comprehension of the historical trends and changes in wet NH_(4)^(+)-N deposition in response to emissions,which interferes with the ability to make effective decisions.This study has analyzed the long-term trends of wet NH_(4)^(+)-N deposition flux and has quantified the effect of anthropogenic emissions and meteorological factors at a typical urban site and a typical forest site in the PRD region from 2009 to 2020.It revealed a significant decreasing trend in wet NH_(4)^(+)-N flux in both the typical urban and forest areas of the PRD region,at-6.2%/year(p<0.001)and-3.3%/year(p<0.001),respectively.Anthropogenic emissions are thought to have contributed 47%–57%of the wet NH_(4)^(+)-N deposition trend over the past 12 years compared to meteorological factors.Meteorological conditions dominated the interannual fluctuations in wet NH_(4)^(+)-N deposition with an absolute contribution of 46%–52%,while anthropogenic emissions change alone explained 10%–31%.NH_(3)emissions have the greatest impact on the urban area among anthropogenic emission factors,while SO_(2)emissions have the greatest impact on the forest area.Additionally,precipitation was identified as the primary meteorological driver for both sites.Our findings also imply that the benefits of NH_(3)emissions reductions might not immediately emerge due to interference from weather-related factors.展开更多
Rail corrugation, as a prevalent type of rail damage in heavy railways, induces diseases in the track structure. In order to ensure the safe operation of trains, an improved whale optimization algorithm is proposed to...Rail corrugation, as a prevalent type of rail damage in heavy railways, induces diseases in the track structure. In order to ensure the safe operation of trains, an improved whale optimization algorithm is proposed to optimize the rail corrugation evolution trend prediction model of the least squares support vector machine (IPCA-ELWOA-LSSVM). The elite reverse learning combined with the Lévy flight strategy is introduced to improve the whale optimization algorithm. The improved WOA (ELWOA) algorithm is used to continuously optimize the kernel parameter σ and the normalization parameter γ in the LSSVM model. Finally, the improved prediction model is validated using data from a domestic heavy-duty railway experimental line database and compared with the prediction model before optimization and the other commonly used models. The experimental results show that the ELWOA-LSSVM prediction model has the highest accuracy, which proves that the proposed method has high accuracy in predicting the rail corrugation evolution trend.展开更多
Using the ERA5 wave reanalysis,the distributions and trends of global available wave energy storage during 1980−2019 are analyzed.The results show that the available wave energy storage is not only related to total wa...Using the ERA5 wave reanalysis,the distributions and trends of global available wave energy storage during 1980−2019 are analyzed.The results show that the available wave energy storage is not only related to total wave energy storage but is also affected by the local available wave probability.Different distributions and trends between the available wave energy and total wave energy storage are observed.Larger values of total wave energy storage are concentrated in the high-latitude westerlies zone,whereas available wave energy storage exhibits greater concentration in the middle-low latitude regions.In each basin,there is a notable upward trend in both total wave energy storage and available wave energy storage.However,the northern Hemisphere(NH)exhibits an increasing trend in available wave probability,whereas the southern Hemisphere(SH)experiences a decreasing trend.This divergence contributes to the spatial distributions of available wave energy storage becoming increasingly uniform.These trends in wave energy are primarily influenced by changes in significant wave height.Although the increasing trend of significant wave height across all frequency ranges induces the growth of total wave energy storage,only the increasing of wave heights falling in 1.3−4 m can cause the growth of available wave energy storage.The consistent increasing rates of wave height under different mean levels contribute to the divergent trends in available wave probability.展开更多
Various slow slip events(SSEs)with distinct characteristics have been detected globally,particularly in regions with dense Global Navigation Satellite Systems(GNSS)networks.In the Hikurangi subduction zone of New Zeal...Various slow slip events(SSEs)with distinct characteristics have been detected globally,particularly in regions with dense Global Navigation Satellite Systems(GNSS)networks.In the Hikurangi subduction zone of New Zealand,SSEs frequently occur alongside seismic activity,especially in the Manawatu and Kapiti regions.This study analyzes the 2021-2023 Kapiti-Manawatu long-term SSE using daily displacement data(2019-2023)from 53 GPS stations.The network inversion filter(NIF)method is applied to extract slow slip signals,revealing spatial migration with alternating slip between Kapiti and Manawatu,characterized by distinct phases of acceleration and deceleration.Manawatu exhibits higher slip rates,exceeding 4 cm/month,with greater cumulative slip and surface displacement than Kapiti.A moderate temporal correlation(coefficient 0.59)between seismic activity in the region and slip acceleration in Manawatu suggests that seismic events may contribute to the slip,while no significant correlation is observed in Kapiti.展开更多
Extreme waves may considerably impact crucial coastal and marine engineering structures. The First Scientific Assessment Report on Ocean and Climate Change of China and The Fourth Assessment Report on Climate Change o...Extreme waves may considerably impact crucial coastal and marine engineering structures. The First Scientific Assessment Report on Ocean and Climate Change of China and The Fourth Assessment Report on Climate Change of China were published in 2020 and 2022, respectively.However, no concrete results on the long-term trends in wave changes in China have been obtained. In this study, long-term trends in extreme wave elements over the past 55 years were investigated using wave data from five in situ observation sites(i.e., Lao Hu Tan, Cheng Shan Tou,Ri Zhao, Nan Ji, Wei Zhou) along the coast of China. The five stations showed different trends in wave height. Results show a general downward trend in wave heights at the LHT and CST stations, reaching-0.78 and-1.44 cm/a, respectively, in summer at middle and high latitudes. NJI stations at middle-to-low latitudes are influenced by the winter monsoon and summer tropical cyclones, showing a substantial increase in extreme wave heights(0.7 cm/a in winter and 2.68 cm/a in summer). The cumulative duration of H_(1/10) ≥ 3 m at NJI and RZH has grown since 1990.展开更多
1. Features of the ecologic environment1.1 Closeness and aridity of the interier continent Xinjing is located in the hinterland of Eurasia where ocean humid air current is diffi-cult to reach. As a result, the climate...1. Features of the ecologic environment1.1 Closeness and aridity of the interier continent Xinjing is located in the hinterland of Eurasia where ocean humid air current is diffi-cult to reach. As a result, the climate is very arid with 150mm of mean annual precipitation.展开更多
With the continuous expansion of the scale of renewable energy installation,the demand for energy storage has increased significantly.However,there are significant differences in the value of energy storage in differe...With the continuous expansion of the scale of renewable energy installation,the demand for energy storage has increased significantly.However,there are significant differences in the value of energy storage in different scenarios,and the phenomenon of diminishing marginal benefits of energy storage is becoming more apparent.Therefore,themulti-dimensional value evolution trend of energy storage has become a key issue.This study selects indicators from three dimensions of energy storage:low-carbon emission reduction,smoothing wind and solar power fluctuations,and saving generation costs,quantifying the economic,environmental,and technical values of energy storage.This forms a quantitative evaluation system for energy storage value.By comparing the calculated system values under different energy storage capacities,the marginal value evolution trend of energy storage is obtained.Meanwhile,considering factors such as the utilization rate of renewable energy,the change in energy storage value under different scenarios is analyzed.The results show that the value of long-duration energy storage is significantly affected by the energy storage capacity.Specifically,when the charge-discharge efficiency of longduration energy storage reaches 0.6 or above,the system value increases significantly.Additionally,appropriately reducing the cost of energy storage capacity also helps to improve its system value.展开更多
The microstructure evolution of a new directionally solidified（DS） Ni-based superalloy used for gas turbine blades after long-term aging at 950 ℃ was investigated.The results show that the γ ＇ phase becomes more ...The microstructure evolution of a new directionally solidified（DS） Ni-based superalloy used for gas turbine blades after long-term aging at 950 ℃ was investigated.The results show that the γ ＇ phase becomes more regular in dendritic arm and interdendritic area,while both the mass fraction and the size of γ ＇ phase increase gradually with increasing aging time.During long-term aging,the MC carbide dissolves on the edge to provide the carbon for the formation of M23C6 carbide by the precipitation of Cr at the grain boundary.The rose-shaped γ ＇/γ eutectic partly dissolves into γ matrix and the aging promotes it transform into raft-shape γ ＇.The microstructure is generally stable and no needle-like topologically close-packed phase（TCP） can be found after aging for 1 000 h.展开更多
Researching the dynamic distribution characteristics and trend evolution of agricultural carbon emissions is of considerable significance in formulating an effective agricultural carbon reduction policy.Based on measu...Researching the dynamic distribution characteristics and trend evolution of agricultural carbon emissions is of considerable significance in formulating an effective agricultural carbon reduction policy.Based on measurement of agricultural carbon emissions of 31 provinces over the period 2002-2011,the study observed regional differences and the dynamic evolution of distribution of agricultural carbon emissions using agricultural carbon intensity as the indicator,accompanied by Gini coefficients and the kernel density estimation method.The results demonstrate first that agricultural carbon emissions for China show an obvious nonequilibrium nature in regard to spatial distribution.According to the differences in agricultural carbon emissions dynamic trends,we divided the 31 regions into four types- continuous decline,fluctuating decline,continuous increase,and fluctuating increase.Further,agricultural carbon emissions intensity showed a downward trend with significant differences in the research areas.Second,the gap in spatial distribution of national agricultural carbon emissions is gradually expanding based on the results calculated by Gini coefficient.From the perception of regional differences in agricultural carbon emissions,the eastern region showed an average level,the gap was more obvious in the central region,while western region showed a trend of fluctuating downward.Third,according to estimation by kernel density,the regional disparity in agricultural carbon emissions had a downward,but limited,trend.In regard to agricultural carbon emissions over the three areas,the regional gap not only tended to decrease but also showed a "four way" differentiation phenomenon in the eastern region.The difference in the central region difference was narrower.On the whole,the gap for the western region reduced steadily over a small range.展开更多
In the travel process of urban residents,travelers will take a series of activities such as imitation and exclusion by observing other people’s travel modes,which affects their following trips.This process can be see...In the travel process of urban residents,travelers will take a series of activities such as imitation and exclusion by observing other people’s travel modes,which affects their following trips.This process can be seen as a repeated game between members of the travelers.Based on the analysis of this game and its evolution trend,a multi-dimensional game model of low-carbon travel for residents is established.The two dimensional game strategies include whether to accept the low-carbon concept and whether to choose low-carbon travel.Combined with evolutionary game theory,the low-carbon travel choices of residents in different cities are simulated,and the evolutionary stability strategies are obtained.Finally,the influences of the main parameters of the model on the evolution process and stability strategies are discussed.The results show that travelers would develop towards two trends.Cities with more developed public traffic system have a higher proportion of receiving low-carbon concept and choosing low-carbon travel.Cities with underdeveloped public transport system could increase this proportion by some measures such as encouraging residents to choose slow transport and increasing the propaganda of low-carbon travel,but the positive effects of the measures like propaganda have a limited impact on the proportion.展开更多
Because of the influence of human activities, the evolution of the Modaomen Estuary is no longer a purely natural process. We used a long-term morphodynamic model （PRD-LTMM-10） to study the evolution of the estuary ...Because of the influence of human activities, the evolution of the Modaomen Estuary is no longer a purely natural process. We used a long-term morphodynamic model （PRD-LTMM-10） to study the evolution of the estuary from 1977 to 1988. The model incorporated modules for riprap-siltation promotion and waterway dredging. The model can simulate the morphodynamic evolutionary processes occurring in the Modaomen Estuary during the period of interest. We were able to isolate the long-term influences of various human engineering activities and the roles of natural factors in estuarine evolution. The governance projects had the largest effect on the natural development of the estuary, resulting in larger siltation on the west side. Installation of riprap and reclamation of submerged land resulted in scouring of the main Hengzhou Channel causing deep trough out-shift. Severe siltation narrowed the upper end of the Longshiku Deep Trough.展开更多
The observed long-term trends in extreme temperatures in Hong Kong were studied based on the meteorological data recorded at the Hong Kong Observatory Headquarters from 1885-2008. Results show that, over the past 124 ...The observed long-term trends in extreme temperatures in Hong Kong were studied based on the meteorological data recorded at the Hong Kong Observatory Headquarters from 1885-2008. Results show that, over the past 124 years, the extreme daily minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as the length of the warm spell in Hong Kong, exhibit statistically significant long-term rising trends, while the length of the cold spell shows a statistically significant decreasing trend. The time-dependent return period analysis also indicated that the return period for daily minimum temperature at 4°C or lower lengthened considerably from 6 years in 1900 to over 150 years in 2000, while the return periods for daily maximum temperature reaching 35°C or above shortened drastically from 32 years in 1900 to 4.5 years in 2000. Past trends in extreme temperatures from selected weather stations in southern China from 1951-2004 were also assessed. Over 70% of the stations studied yielded a statistically significant rising trend in extreme daily minimum temperature, while the trend for extreme maximum temperatures was found to vary, with no significant trend established for the majority of stations.展开更多
The world is currently undergoing profound changes which have never happened within the past century.Global competition in the technology and industry fields is becoming increasingly fierce.The strategic competition o...The world is currently undergoing profound changes which have never happened within the past century.Global competition in the technology and industry fields is becoming increasingly fierce.The strategic competition of the major powers further focuses on the manufacturing industry.Developed countries such as the United States,Germany,and Japan have successively put forward strategic plans such as“re-industrialization”and“return of manufacturing industry”,aiming to seize the commanding heights of a new round of global high-end technology competition and expand international market share.Standing at the historic intersection of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and China's accelerated high-quality development,the“14th Five-Year Plan”clearly pointed out that intelligent manufacturing is the main development trend to promote China's manufacturing to the medium-high end of the global value chain.This reflects the importance of advanced manufacturing for national strategic layout.To better grasp the development direction of advanced manufacturing equipment,the development process and current application status of manufacturing equipment are summarized,and thereafter the characteristics of manufacturing equipment in different development stages of the manufacturing industry are analyzed.Finally,the development trend of advanced milling equipment is prospected.展开更多
The current paper establishes the analytical models of the long-term evolution and perturbation compensation strategy for Medium Earth Orbits（MEO）shallow-resonant navigation constellation,with application to the Chi...The current paper establishes the analytical models of the long-term evolution and perturbation compensation strategy for Medium Earth Orbits（MEO）shallow-resonant navigation constellation,with application to the Chinese Bei Dou Navigation Satellite System（BDS）.The long-term perturbation model for the relative motion is developed based on the Hamiltonian model,and the long-term evolution law is analyzed.The relationship between the control boundary of the constellation and the offset of the orbital elements is analyzed,and a general analytical method for calculating the offset of the orbit elements is proposed.The analytical model is further improved when the luni-solar perturbations are included.The long-term evolutions of the BDS MEO constellation within 10 years are illustrated,and the effectiveness of the proposed analytical perturbation compensation calculation approach is compared with the traditional numerical results.We found the fundamental reason for the nonlinear variations of the relative longitude of ascending node and the mean argument of latitude is the long-periodic variations of the orbital inclination due to the luni-solar perturbations.The proposed analytical approach can avoid the numerical iterations,and reveal the essential relationship between the orbital element offsets and the secular drifts of the constellation configuration.Moreover,there is no need for maintaining the BDS MEO constellation within 10 years while using the perturbation compensation method.展开更多
The microstructure evolution and its effect on the impact toughness of a new Ni-Fe based alloy GH984 G,used in 700℃ ultra-super critical coal-fired power plant,were investigated during thermal exposure at 650℃-750℃...The microstructure evolution and its effect on the impact toughness of a new Ni-Fe based alloy GH984 G,used in 700℃ ultra-super critical coal-fired power plant,were investigated during thermal exposure at 650℃-750℃ for up to 10,000 h.The results show that the impact toughness at room tempe rature drops rapidly at the early stage during thermal exposure at 700℃ and then has no significant change even if after exposure for 10,000 h.The significant decline of the impact toughness is attributed to the coarsening of M_(23)C_(6) carbides at grain boundaries,which weakens the grain boundary strength and leads to the aging-induced grain boundary embrittlement.The M_(23)C_(6) carbides have almost no change with further thermal exposure and the impact toughness also remains stable.Additionally,the impact toughness rises with the increase of thermal exposure temperature.The size of γ' after thermal exposure at 750℃ for10,000 h is much bigger than that at 650℃ and 700℃ for 10,000 h.There fore,the intragranular strength decreases significantly due to the transformation of the interaction between γ' and dislocation from stro ngly coupled dislocation shearing to Orowan bowing.More plastic deformation occurs within grains after thermal exposure at 750℃ for 10,000 h,which increases the impact toughness.展开更多
Thermal stabilities of microstructure and mechanical property have been investigated on superalloy U720Li, which is of great interest of application for jet engine and land-based turbine disc. The results showed that,...Thermal stabilities of microstructure and mechanical property have been investigated on superalloy U720Li, which is of great interest of application for jet engine and land-based turbine disc. The results showed that, the primary and secondary gamma' particles maintain good thermal stability at 650 and 700 degreesC with aging time up to 3000 h, while the tertiary gamma' is apparently dependent on aging temperature and time. The tertiary gamma' particles undergo a procedure of coarsening, dissolution and eventually complete disappearance with the increasing of aging time and temperature. They exhibit unusual high sensibility upon aging temperature, which is attributed to the lattice misfit between the gamma' precipitates and the matrix in the alloy. The grain boundary phase M23C6 remains stable without forming of sigma phase even with aging time up to 3000 h at 700 degreesC. Microhardness decreases apparently with increasing aging time and aging temperature. Theoretical analysis based on dislocation mechanism indicates that the change of microhardness should be attributed to the evolution of the tertiary gamma' during aging.展开更多
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.72104110 No.72274113)Basic Science(Natural Science)Research Projects in Higher Education Institutions in Jiangsu Province(No.22KJB630011)+2 种基金General Project of Philosophy and Social Sciences Research in Jiangsu Universities(No.2022SJYB0253)Taishan Scholar Foundation of Shandong province of China(tsqn202103069)Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation(No.ZR202111130115)。
文摘Purpose:The study examines the synergy and hysteresis in the evolution of funding and its supported literature,depicts their temporal correlation mechanism,which aids in improving trend predictions.Design/methodology/approach:The study uses the LDA model to identify topics in funding texts and supported papers.A cosine similarity algorithm was employed to estimate the nexus between topics and construct the topic evolution time series.Similarly,the hysteresis effect in topic evolution is analyzed based on topic popularity and content,leading to insights into their temporal correlation mechanism.Findings:The study finds that fund and sponsored paper topics exhibit strong collaboration with a noticeable lag in evolution.The fund topics significantly influence sponsored paper topics after a two-year lag.Moreover,the lag effect is inversely proportional to the topic’s similarity.Research limitations:We use the LDA model to determine the hysteresis effect in topic evolution despite its limitations in handling long-tail words and domain-specific vocabulary.Furthermore,the timing of the emergence of the focal topic in funds is undermined,affecting the findings.Practical implications:These findings enhance the accuracy and scientific validity of trend prediction.Estimating and identifying patterns can help technology managers anticipate future research hotspots,supporting informed decision-making and technology management.Originality/value:This study introduces a research framework to quantitatively and visually analyze the hysteresis effect,revealing the correlation and evolutionary patterns between fund research topics and their funded papers.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2022YFF0503703)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42130203,42275133,and 42241135).
文摘In this study,we use observations from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry(SABER)instrument onboard the Thermosphere–Ionosphere–Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics(TIMED)satellite to develop and apply a new local-time binning method to investigate the long-term evolution of mesospheric water vapor at high latitudes.The proposed method accounts for the gradual local-time drift of the SABER orbit by aligning seasonal observation windows and selecting samples observed at similar local times.This approach minimizes tidal aliasing and ensures more consistent sampling,yielding more reliable estimates of long-term water vapor trends at high latitudes.The results show that drying signals primarily appear in the polar regions.However,in the southern hemisphere,a drying trend is observed only in autumn,whereas winter and summer mainly show moistening trends.In contrast,the northern hemisphere exhibits drying signals in the polar regions during all seasons,showing a clear seasonal asymmetry.Additionally,the water vapor trend in the northern hemisphere is particularly pronounced in February(late winter),with moistening reaching up to+2.0 ppmv.The winter in the southern hemisphere(July–August)also shows moistening,but the trend is still weaker than in the northern hemisphere.These differences highlight the strong moistening trend in the northern hemisphere during winter and underscore the significant asymmetry in seasonal water vapor changes between the two hemispheres.These findings emphasize the limitations of water vapor trend estimates across different seasons and latitudes.Moreover,they provide new insights into the spatiotemporal variability associated with tidal structures,underscoring the importance of optimizing local-time sampling strategies for reliable long-term trend detection.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.U19A2044,42105132,42030609,41975037)the National Key Research and Development Programof China(No.2022YFC3700303).
文摘The Yangtze River Delta(YRD)region has witnessed a consistent decrease in NO_(2),CO,and PM_(2.5) from 2016 to 2023.However,ozone has exhibited fluctuating patterns.Quantifying ozone contributions from emissions,both within and outside the YRD,is essential for understanding city-cluster-scale ozone pollution(CCSOP).To address these concerns,a comprehensive approach combining Kolmogorov-Zurbenko filtering,Empirical Orthogonal Function,Absolute Principal Component Score,andMultiple Linear Regression methods(KZ-EOF-APCs-MLR)was employed to quantify the impacts of meteorological factors,local and non-local emission contributions of ozone(LECO and NECO).Emission changes were identified as the predominant factor shaping annual fluctuations in ambient ozone.Notably,during the previous andmiddle stages of the COVID-19 pandemic(from2017 to 2021),emissions reductions led to a marked decrease in YRD ozone levels(-7.01μg/m^(3)),with a pronounced rebound post-pandemic(2022 to 2023)(+8.04μg/m^(3)).Seasonally,the emissioninduced ozone exhibited fluctuating upward trend during autumn and winter,suggesting a transition of ozone pollution towards colder seasons.Spatially,high LECO concentrated in the eastern YRD(EYRD)across spring,autumn,and winter,becoming prominent in the central YRD(CYRD)during summer.During CCSOP,the CYRD exhibited the highest LECO and exceedance frequency(20.82μg/m^(3) and 45.27%).LECO explained a large portion of ozone variability during CCSOP,particularly in the EYRD,while NECO showed less explanatory power but consistently high contributions(148.05±15.52μg/m^(3)).These findings offer valuable insights for a deeper understanding of the evolving patterns of ozone pollution and the issue of CCSOP in the YRD.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation(Nos.42275107,42121004,and 42375109)the National Key Research and Development Plan(No.2023YFC3706202)+1 种基金the Foundational and Applied Basic Research in Guangzhou in 2023(No.2023A04J0251)the Special Fund Project for Science and Technology Innovation Strategy of Guangdong Province(No.2019B121205004).
文摘The Pearl River Delta(PRD)region has been identified as a significant hotspot of wet ammonium deposition.However,the absence of long-term monitoring data in the area hinders the comprehension of the historical trends and changes in wet NH_(4)^(+)-N deposition in response to emissions,which interferes with the ability to make effective decisions.This study has analyzed the long-term trends of wet NH_(4)^(+)-N deposition flux and has quantified the effect of anthropogenic emissions and meteorological factors at a typical urban site and a typical forest site in the PRD region from 2009 to 2020.It revealed a significant decreasing trend in wet NH_(4)^(+)-N flux in both the typical urban and forest areas of the PRD region,at-6.2%/year(p<0.001)and-3.3%/year(p<0.001),respectively.Anthropogenic emissions are thought to have contributed 47%–57%of the wet NH_(4)^(+)-N deposition trend over the past 12 years compared to meteorological factors.Meteorological conditions dominated the interannual fluctuations in wet NH_(4)^(+)-N deposition with an absolute contribution of 46%–52%,while anthropogenic emissions change alone explained 10%–31%.NH_(3)emissions have the greatest impact on the urban area among anthropogenic emission factors,while SO_(2)emissions have the greatest impact on the forest area.Additionally,precipitation was identified as the primary meteorological driver for both sites.Our findings also imply that the benefits of NH_(3)emissions reductions might not immediately emerge due to interference from weather-related factors.
文摘Rail corrugation, as a prevalent type of rail damage in heavy railways, induces diseases in the track structure. In order to ensure the safe operation of trains, an improved whale optimization algorithm is proposed to optimize the rail corrugation evolution trend prediction model of the least squares support vector machine (IPCA-ELWOA-LSSVM). The elite reverse learning combined with the Lévy flight strategy is introduced to improve the whale optimization algorithm. The improved WOA (ELWOA) algorithm is used to continuously optimize the kernel parameter σ and the normalization parameter γ in the LSSVM model. Finally, the improved prediction model is validated using data from a domestic heavy-duty railway experimental line database and compared with the prediction model before optimization and the other commonly used models. The experimental results show that the ELWOA-LSSVM prediction model has the highest accuracy, which proves that the proposed method has high accuracy in predicting the rail corrugation evolution trend.
基金The National Key R&D Program of China under contract No.2023YFE0126300the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.41930538the Open Fund of China Meteorological Administration Hydro-Meteorology Key Laboratory,Hohai University,under contract No.23SWQXM049.
文摘Using the ERA5 wave reanalysis,the distributions and trends of global available wave energy storage during 1980−2019 are analyzed.The results show that the available wave energy storage is not only related to total wave energy storage but is also affected by the local available wave probability.Different distributions and trends between the available wave energy and total wave energy storage are observed.Larger values of total wave energy storage are concentrated in the high-latitude westerlies zone,whereas available wave energy storage exhibits greater concentration in the middle-low latitude regions.In each basin,there is a notable upward trend in both total wave energy storage and available wave energy storage.However,the northern Hemisphere(NH)exhibits an increasing trend in available wave probability,whereas the southern Hemisphere(SH)experiences a decreasing trend.This divergence contributes to the spatial distributions of available wave energy storage becoming increasingly uniform.These trends in wave energy are primarily influenced by changes in significant wave height.Although the increasing trend of significant wave height across all frequency ranges induces the growth of total wave energy storage,only the increasing of wave heights falling in 1.3−4 m can cause the growth of available wave energy storage.The consistent increasing rates of wave height under different mean levels contribute to the divergent trends in available wave probability.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41704031,42374040)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangxi Science and Technology Department(20232BAB203073)the Key Laboratory of Mine Environmental Monitoring and Improving around Poyang Lake,Ministry of Natural Resources(MEMI-2021-2022-29).
文摘Various slow slip events(SSEs)with distinct characteristics have been detected globally,particularly in regions with dense Global Navigation Satellite Systems(GNSS)networks.In the Hikurangi subduction zone of New Zealand,SSEs frequently occur alongside seismic activity,especially in the Manawatu and Kapiti regions.This study analyzes the 2021-2023 Kapiti-Manawatu long-term SSE using daily displacement data(2019-2023)from 53 GPS stations.The network inversion filter(NIF)method is applied to extract slow slip signals,revealing spatial migration with alternating slip between Kapiti and Manawatu,characterized by distinct phases of acceleration and deceleration.Manawatu exhibits higher slip rates,exceeding 4 cm/month,with greater cumulative slip and surface displacement than Kapiti.A moderate temporal correlation(coefficient 0.59)between seismic activity in the region and slip acceleration in Manawatu suggests that seismic events may contribute to the slip,while no significant correlation is observed in Kapiti.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 52271271)National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2022YFE0104500)Major Science and Technology Projects of the Ministry of Water Resources (No. SKS-2022025)。
文摘Extreme waves may considerably impact crucial coastal and marine engineering structures. The First Scientific Assessment Report on Ocean and Climate Change of China and The Fourth Assessment Report on Climate Change of China were published in 2020 and 2022, respectively.However, no concrete results on the long-term trends in wave changes in China have been obtained. In this study, long-term trends in extreme wave elements over the past 55 years were investigated using wave data from five in situ observation sites(i.e., Lao Hu Tan, Cheng Shan Tou,Ri Zhao, Nan Ji, Wei Zhou) along the coast of China. The five stations showed different trends in wave height. Results show a general downward trend in wave heights at the LHT and CST stations, reaching-0.78 and-1.44 cm/a, respectively, in summer at middle and high latitudes. NJI stations at middle-to-low latitudes are influenced by the winter monsoon and summer tropical cyclones, showing a substantial increase in extreme wave heights(0.7 cm/a in winter and 2.68 cm/a in summer). The cumulative duration of H_(1/10) ≥ 3 m at NJI and RZH has grown since 1990.
文摘1. Features of the ecologic environment1.1 Closeness and aridity of the interier continent Xinjing is located in the hinterland of Eurasia where ocean humid air current is diffi-cult to reach. As a result, the climate is very arid with 150mm of mean annual precipitation.
基金supported financially by Thematic Project of the State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Company Limited Economic Research Institute under Grant SGLNJY00GHJS2310109.
文摘With the continuous expansion of the scale of renewable energy installation,the demand for energy storage has increased significantly.However,there are significant differences in the value of energy storage in different scenarios,and the phenomenon of diminishing marginal benefits of energy storage is becoming more apparent.Therefore,themulti-dimensional value evolution trend of energy storage has become a key issue.This study selects indicators from three dimensions of energy storage:low-carbon emission reduction,smoothing wind and solar power fluctuations,and saving generation costs,quantifying the economic,environmental,and technical values of energy storage.This forms a quantitative evaluation system for energy storage value.By comparing the calculated system values under different energy storage capacities,the marginal value evolution trend of energy storage is obtained.Meanwhile,considering factors such as the utilization rate of renewable energy,the change in energy storage value under different scenarios is analyzed.The results show that the value of long-duration energy storage is significantly affected by the energy storage capacity.Specifically,when the charge-discharge efficiency of longduration energy storage reaches 0.6 or above,the system value increases significantly.Additionally,appropriately reducing the cost of energy storage capacity also helps to improve its system value.
基金Projects(2006CB605005,2010CB631203) supported by the National Basic Research Program of ChinaProject(IRT0713) supported by Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University,China
文摘The microstructure evolution of a new directionally solidified（DS） Ni-based superalloy used for gas turbine blades after long-term aging at 950 ℃ was investigated.The results show that the γ ＇ phase becomes more regular in dendritic arm and interdendritic area,while both the mass fraction and the size of γ ＇ phase increase gradually with increasing aging time.During long-term aging,the MC carbide dissolves on the edge to provide the carbon for the formation of M23C6 carbide by the precipitation of Cr at the grain boundary.The rose-shaped γ ＇/γ eutectic partly dissolves into γ matrix and the aging promotes it transform into raft-shape γ ＇.The microstructure is generally stable and no needle-like topologically close-packed phase（TCP） can be found after aging for 1 000 h.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 71273105]the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[grant number 2013YB12]
文摘Researching the dynamic distribution characteristics and trend evolution of agricultural carbon emissions is of considerable significance in formulating an effective agricultural carbon reduction policy.Based on measurement of agricultural carbon emissions of 31 provinces over the period 2002-2011,the study observed regional differences and the dynamic evolution of distribution of agricultural carbon emissions using agricultural carbon intensity as the indicator,accompanied by Gini coefficients and the kernel density estimation method.The results demonstrate first that agricultural carbon emissions for China show an obvious nonequilibrium nature in regard to spatial distribution.According to the differences in agricultural carbon emissions dynamic trends,we divided the 31 regions into four types- continuous decline,fluctuating decline,continuous increase,and fluctuating increase.Further,agricultural carbon emissions intensity showed a downward trend with significant differences in the research areas.Second,the gap in spatial distribution of national agricultural carbon emissions is gradually expanding based on the results calculated by Gini coefficient.From the perception of regional differences in agricultural carbon emissions,the eastern region showed an average level,the gap was more obvious in the central region,while western region showed a trend of fluctuating downward.Third,according to estimation by kernel density,the regional disparity in agricultural carbon emissions had a downward,but limited,trend.In regard to agricultural carbon emissions over the three areas,the regional gap not only tended to decrease but also showed a "four way" differentiation phenomenon in the eastern region.The difference in the central region difference was narrower.On the whole,the gap for the western region reduced steadily over a small range.
基金Project(BK20160512)supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province,ChinaProject(16YJCZH027)supported by the Humanity and Social Science Youth Foundation of Ministry of Education of ChinaProject(15GLC004)supported by the Social Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province,China
文摘In the travel process of urban residents,travelers will take a series of activities such as imitation and exclusion by observing other people’s travel modes,which affects their following trips.This process can be seen as a repeated game between members of the travelers.Based on the analysis of this game and its evolution trend,a multi-dimensional game model of low-carbon travel for residents is established.The two dimensional game strategies include whether to accept the low-carbon concept and whether to choose low-carbon travel.Combined with evolutionary game theory,the low-carbon travel choices of residents in different cities are simulated,and the evolutionary stability strategies are obtained.Finally,the influences of the main parameters of the model on the evolution process and stability strategies are discussed.The results show that travelers would develop towards two trends.Cities with more developed public traffic system have a higher proportion of receiving low-carbon concept and choosing low-carbon travel.Cities with underdeveloped public transport system could increase this proportion by some measures such as encouraging residents to choose slow transport and increasing the propaganda of low-carbon travel,but the positive effects of the measures like propaganda have a limited impact on the proportion.
文摘Because of the influence of human activities, the evolution of the Modaomen Estuary is no longer a purely natural process. We used a long-term morphodynamic model （PRD-LTMM-10） to study the evolution of the estuary from 1977 to 1988. The model incorporated modules for riprap-siltation promotion and waterway dredging. The model can simulate the morphodynamic evolutionary processes occurring in the Modaomen Estuary during the period of interest. We were able to isolate the long-term influences of various human engineering activities and the roles of natural factors in estuarine evolution. The governance projects had the largest effect on the natural development of the estuary, resulting in larger siltation on the west side. Installation of riprap and reclamation of submerged land resulted in scouring of the main Hengzhou Channel causing deep trough out-shift. Severe siltation narrowed the upper end of the Longshiku Deep Trough.
文摘The observed long-term trends in extreme temperatures in Hong Kong were studied based on the meteorological data recorded at the Hong Kong Observatory Headquarters from 1885-2008. Results show that, over the past 124 years, the extreme daily minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as the length of the warm spell in Hong Kong, exhibit statistically significant long-term rising trends, while the length of the cold spell shows a statistically significant decreasing trend. The time-dependent return period analysis also indicated that the return period for daily minimum temperature at 4°C or lower lengthened considerably from 6 years in 1900 to over 150 years in 2000, while the return periods for daily maximum temperature reaching 35°C or above shortened drastically from 32 years in 1900 to 4.5 years in 2000. Past trends in extreme temperatures from selected weather stations in southern China from 1951-2004 were also assessed. Over 70% of the stations studied yielded a statistically significant rising trend in extreme daily minimum temperature, while the trend for extreme maximum temperatures was found to vary, with no significant trend established for the majority of stations.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.92148301)。
文摘The world is currently undergoing profound changes which have never happened within the past century.Global competition in the technology and industry fields is becoming increasingly fierce.The strategic competition of the major powers further focuses on the manufacturing industry.Developed countries such as the United States,Germany,and Japan have successively put forward strategic plans such as“re-industrialization”and“return of manufacturing industry”,aiming to seize the commanding heights of a new round of global high-end technology competition and expand international market share.Standing at the historic intersection of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and China's accelerated high-quality development,the“14th Five-Year Plan”clearly pointed out that intelligent manufacturing is the main development trend to promote China's manufacturing to the medium-high end of the global value chain.This reflects the importance of advanced manufacturing for national strategic layout.To better grasp the development direction of advanced manufacturing equipment,the development process and current application status of manufacturing equipment are summarized,and thereafter the characteristics of manufacturing equipment in different development stages of the manufacturing industry are analyzed.Finally,the development trend of advanced milling equipment is prospected.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 61403416)
文摘The current paper establishes the analytical models of the long-term evolution and perturbation compensation strategy for Medium Earth Orbits（MEO）shallow-resonant navigation constellation,with application to the Chinese Bei Dou Navigation Satellite System（BDS）.The long-term perturbation model for the relative motion is developed based on the Hamiltonian model,and the long-term evolution law is analyzed.The relationship between the control boundary of the constellation and the offset of the orbital elements is analyzed,and a general analytical method for calculating the offset of the orbit elements is proposed.The analytical model is further improved when the luni-solar perturbations are included.The long-term evolutions of the BDS MEO constellation within 10 years are illustrated,and the effectiveness of the proposed analytical perturbation compensation calculation approach is compared with the traditional numerical results.We found the fundamental reason for the nonlinear variations of the relative longitude of ascending node and the mean argument of latitude is the long-periodic variations of the orbital inclination due to the luni-solar perturbations.The proposed analytical approach can avoid the numerical iterations,and reveal the essential relationship between the orbital element offsets and the secular drifts of the constellation configuration.Moreover,there is no need for maintaining the BDS MEO constellation within 10 years while using the perturbation compensation method.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2017YFB0305204)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51971216 and No.51871213)LiaoNing Revitalization Talents Program(No.XLYC1807038)。
文摘The microstructure evolution and its effect on the impact toughness of a new Ni-Fe based alloy GH984 G,used in 700℃ ultra-super critical coal-fired power plant,were investigated during thermal exposure at 650℃-750℃ for up to 10,000 h.The results show that the impact toughness at room tempe rature drops rapidly at the early stage during thermal exposure at 700℃ and then has no significant change even if after exposure for 10,000 h.The significant decline of the impact toughness is attributed to the coarsening of M_(23)C_(6) carbides at grain boundaries,which weakens the grain boundary strength and leads to the aging-induced grain boundary embrittlement.The M_(23)C_(6) carbides have almost no change with further thermal exposure and the impact toughness also remains stable.Additionally,the impact toughness rises with the increase of thermal exposure temperature.The size of γ' after thermal exposure at 750℃ for10,000 h is much bigger than that at 650℃ and 700℃ for 10,000 h.There fore,the intragranular strength decreases significantly due to the transformation of the interaction between γ' and dislocation from stro ngly coupled dislocation shearing to Orowan bowing.More plastic deformation occurs within grains after thermal exposure at 750℃ for 10,000 h,which increases the impact toughness.
文摘Thermal stabilities of microstructure and mechanical property have been investigated on superalloy U720Li, which is of great interest of application for jet engine and land-based turbine disc. The results showed that, the primary and secondary gamma' particles maintain good thermal stability at 650 and 700 degreesC with aging time up to 3000 h, while the tertiary gamma' is apparently dependent on aging temperature and time. The tertiary gamma' particles undergo a procedure of coarsening, dissolution and eventually complete disappearance with the increasing of aging time and temperature. They exhibit unusual high sensibility upon aging temperature, which is attributed to the lattice misfit between the gamma' precipitates and the matrix in the alloy. The grain boundary phase M23C6 remains stable without forming of sigma phase even with aging time up to 3000 h at 700 degreesC. Microhardness decreases apparently with increasing aging time and aging temperature. Theoretical analysis based on dislocation mechanism indicates that the change of microhardness should be attributed to the evolution of the tertiary gamma' during aging.
