Multi-target tracking is facing the difficulties of modeling uncertain motion and observation noise.Traditional tracking algorithms are limited by specific models and priors that may mismatch a real-world scenario.In ...Multi-target tracking is facing the difficulties of modeling uncertain motion and observation noise.Traditional tracking algorithms are limited by specific models and priors that may mismatch a real-world scenario.In this paper,considering the model-free purpose,we present an online Multi-Target Intelligent Tracking(MTIT)algorithm based on a Deep Long-Short Term Memory(DLSTM)network for complex tracking requirements,named the MTIT-DLSTM algorithm.Firstly,to distinguish trajectories and concatenate the tracking task in a time sequence,we define a target tuple set that is the labeled Random Finite Set(RFS).Then,prediction and update blocks based on the DLSTM network are constructed to predict and estimate the state of targets,respectively.Further,the prediction block can learn the movement trend from the historical state sequence,while the update block can capture the noise characteristic from the historical measurement sequence.Finally,a data association scheme based on Hungarian algorithm and the heuristic track management strategy are employed to assign measurements to targets and adapt births and deaths.Experimental results manifest that,compared with the existing tracking algorithms,our proposed MTIT-DLSTM algorithm can improve effectively the accuracy and robustness in estimating the state of targets appearing at random positions,and be applied to linear and nonlinear multi-target tracking scenarios.展开更多
The unloading relaxation caused by excavation for construction of high arch dams is an important factor influencing the foundation’s integrity and strength.To evaluate the degree of unloading relaxation,the long-shor...The unloading relaxation caused by excavation for construction of high arch dams is an important factor influencing the foundation’s integrity and strength.To evaluate the degree of unloading relaxation,the long-short term memory(LSTM)network was used to estimate the depth of unloading relaxation zones on the left bank foundation of the Baihetan Arch Dam.Principal component analysis indicates that rock charac-teristics,the structural plane,the protection layer,lithology,and time are the main factors.The LSTM network results demonstrate the unloading relaxation characteristics of the left bank,and the relationships with the factors were also analyzed.The structural plane has the most significant influence on the distribution of unloading relaxation zones.Compared with massive basalt,the columnar jointed basalt experiences a more significant unloading relaxation phenomenon with a clear time effect,with the average unloading relaxation period being 50 d.The protection layer can effectively reduce the unloading relaxation depth by approximately 20%.展开更多
In dense pedestrian tracking,frequent object occlusions and close distances between objects cause difficulty when accurately estimating object trajectories.In this study,a conditional random field tracking model is es...In dense pedestrian tracking,frequent object occlusions and close distances between objects cause difficulty when accurately estimating object trajectories.In this study,a conditional random field tracking model is established by using a visual long short term memory network in the three-dimensional(3D)space and the motion estimations jointly performed on object trajectory segments.Object visual field information is added to the long short term memory network to improve the accuracy of the motion related object pair selection and motion estimation.To address the uncertainty of the length and interval of trajectory segments,a multimode long short term memory network is proposed for the object motion estimation.The tracking performance is evaluated using the PETS2009 dataset.The experimental results show that the proposed method achieves better performance than the tracking methods based on the independent motion estimation.展开更多
A Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM) Recurrent Neural Network(RNN) has driven tremendous improvements on an acoustic model based on Gaussian Mixture Model(GMM). However, these models based on a hybrid method require a force...A Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM) Recurrent Neural Network(RNN) has driven tremendous improvements on an acoustic model based on Gaussian Mixture Model(GMM). However, these models based on a hybrid method require a forced aligned Hidden Markov Model(HMM) state sequence obtained from the GMM-based acoustic model. Therefore, it requires a long computation time for training both the GMM-based acoustic model and a deep learning-based acoustic model. In order to solve this problem, an acoustic model using CTC algorithm is proposed. CTC algorithm does not require the GMM-based acoustic model because it does not use the forced aligned HMM state sequence. However, previous works on a LSTM RNN-based acoustic model using CTC used a small-scale training corpus. In this paper, the LSTM RNN-based acoustic model using CTC is trained on a large-scale training corpus and its performance is evaluated. The implemented acoustic model has a performance of 6.18% and 15.01% in terms of Word Error Rate(WER) for clean speech and noisy speech, respectively. This is similar to a performance of the acoustic model based on the hybrid method.展开更多
Aimed at the problem that the traditional ART-2 neural network can not recognize a gradually changing course, an eternal term memory (ETM) vector is introduced into ART-2 to simulate the function of human brain, i.e. ...Aimed at the problem that the traditional ART-2 neural network can not recognize a gradually changing course, an eternal term memory (ETM) vector is introduced into ART-2 to simulate the function of human brain, i.e. the deep remembrance for the initial impression.. The eternal term memory vector is determined only by the initial vector that establishes category neuron node and is used to keep the remembrance for this vector for ever. Two times of vigilance algorithm are put forward, and the posterior input vector must first pass the first vigilance of this eternal term memory vector, only succeeded has it the qualification to begin the second vigilance of long term memory vector. The long term memory vector can be revised only when both of the vigilances are passed. Results of recognition examples show that the improved ART-2 overcomes the defect of traditional ART-2 and can recognize a gradually changing course effectively.展开更多
Predicting wind speed accurately is essential to ensure the stability of the wind power system and improve the utilization rate of wind energy.However,owing to the stochastic and intermittent of wind speed,predicting ...Predicting wind speed accurately is essential to ensure the stability of the wind power system and improve the utilization rate of wind energy.However,owing to the stochastic and intermittent of wind speed,predicting wind speed accurately is difficult.A new hybrid deep learning model based on empirical wavelet transform,recurrent neural network and error correction for short-term wind speed prediction is proposed in this paper.The empirical wavelet transformation is applied to decompose the original wind speed series.The long short term memory network and the Elman neural network are adopted to predict low-frequency and high-frequency wind speed sub-layers respectively to balance the calculation efficiency and prediction accuracy.The error correction strategy based on deep long short term memory network is developed to modify the prediction errors.Four actual wind speed series are utilized to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model.The empirical results indicate that the method proposed in this paper has satisfactory performance in wind speed prediction.展开更多
Traditional recurrent neural networks are composed of capacitors, inductors, resistors, and operational amplifiers.Memristive neural networks are constructed by replacing resistors with memristors. This paper focuses ...Traditional recurrent neural networks are composed of capacitors, inductors, resistors, and operational amplifiers.Memristive neural networks are constructed by replacing resistors with memristors. This paper focuses on the memory analysis,i.e. the initial value computation, of memristors. Firstly, we present the memory analysis for a single memristor based on memristors’ mathematical models with linear and nonlinear drift.Secondly, we present the memory analysis for two memristors in series and parallel. Thirdly, we point out the difference between traditional neural networks and those that are memristive. Based on the current and voltage relationship of memristors, we use mathematical analysis and SPICE simulations to demonstrate the validity of our methods.展开更多
In the electricity market,fluctuations in real-time prices are unstable,and changes in short-term load are determined by many factors.By studying the timing of charging and discharging,as well as the economic benefits...In the electricity market,fluctuations in real-time prices are unstable,and changes in short-term load are determined by many factors.By studying the timing of charging and discharging,as well as the economic benefits of energy storage in the process of participating in the power market,this paper takes energy storage scheduling as merely one factor affecting short-term power load,which affects short-term load time series along with time-of-use price,holidays,and temperature.A deep learning network is used to predict the short-term load,a convolutional neural network(CNN)is used to extract the features,and a long short-term memory(LSTM)network is used to learn the temporal characteristics of the load value,which can effectively improve prediction accuracy.Taking the load data of a certain region as an example,the CNN-LSTM prediction model is compared with the single LSTM prediction model.The experimental results show that the CNN-LSTM deep learning network with the participation of energy storage in dispatching can have high prediction accuracy for short-term power load forecasting.展开更多
The fraction defective of semi-finished products is predicted to optimize the process of relay production lines, by which production quality and productivity are increased, and the costs are decreased. The process par...The fraction defective of semi-finished products is predicted to optimize the process of relay production lines, by which production quality and productivity are increased, and the costs are decreased. The process parameters of relay production lines are studied based on the long-and-short-term memory network. Then, the Keras deep learning framework is utilized to build up a short-term relay quality prediction algorithm for the semi-finished product. A simulation model is used to study prediction algorithm. The simulation results show that the average prediction absolute error of the fraction is less than 5%. This work displays great application potential in the relay production lines.展开更多
Wind power volatility not only limits the large-scale grid connection but also poses many challenges to safe grid operation.Accurate wind power prediction can mitigate the adverse effects of wind power volatility on w...Wind power volatility not only limits the large-scale grid connection but also poses many challenges to safe grid operation.Accurate wind power prediction can mitigate the adverse effects of wind power volatility on wind power grid connections.For the characteristics of wind power antecedent data and precedent data jointly to determine the prediction accuracy of the prediction model,the short-term prediction of wind power based on a combined neural network is proposed.First,the Bi-directional Long Short Term Memory(BiLSTM)network prediction model is constructed,and the bi-directional nature of the BiLSTM network is used to deeply mine the wind power data information and find the correlation information within the data.Secondly,to avoid the limitation of a single prediction model when the wind power changes abruptly,the Wavelet Transform-Improved Adaptive Genetic Algorithm-Back Propagation(WT-IAGA-BP)neural network based on the combination of the WT-IAGA-BP neural network and BiLSTM network is constructed for the short-term prediction of wind power.Finally,comparing with LSTM,BiLSTM,WT-LSTM,WT-BiLSTM,WT-IAGA-BP,and WT-IAGA-BP&LSTM prediction models,it is verified that the wind power short-term prediction model based on the combination of WT-IAGA-BP neural network and BiLSTM network has higher prediction accuracy.展开更多
Lithium-ion batteries are the most widely accepted type of battery in the electric vehicle industry because of some of their positive inherent characteristics. However, the safety problems associated with inaccurate e...Lithium-ion batteries are the most widely accepted type of battery in the electric vehicle industry because of some of their positive inherent characteristics. However, the safety problems associated with inaccurate estimation and prediction of the state of health of these batteries have attracted wide attention due to the adverse negative effect on vehicle safety. In this paper, both machine and deep learning models were used to estimate the state of health of lithium-ion batteries. The paper introduces the definition of battery health status and its importance in the electric vehicle industry. Based on the data preprocessing and visualization analysis, three features related to actual battery capacity degradation are extracted from the data. Two learning models, SVR and LSTM were employed for the state of health estimation and their respective results are compared in this paper. The mean square error and coefficient of determination were the two metrics for the performance evaluation of the models. The experimental results indicate that both models have high estimation results. However, the metrics indicated that the SVR was the overall best model.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.62276204)Open Foundation of Science and Technology on Electronic Information Control Laboratory,Natural Science Basic Research Program of Shanxi,China(Nos.2022JM-340 and 2023-JC-QN-0710)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Nos.2020T130494 and 2018M633470).
文摘Multi-target tracking is facing the difficulties of modeling uncertain motion and observation noise.Traditional tracking algorithms are limited by specific models and priors that may mismatch a real-world scenario.In this paper,considering the model-free purpose,we present an online Multi-Target Intelligent Tracking(MTIT)algorithm based on a Deep Long-Short Term Memory(DLSTM)network for complex tracking requirements,named the MTIT-DLSTM algorithm.Firstly,to distinguish trajectories and concatenate the tracking task in a time sequence,we define a target tuple set that is the labeled Random Finite Set(RFS).Then,prediction and update blocks based on the DLSTM network are constructed to predict and estimate the state of targets,respectively.Further,the prediction block can learn the movement trend from the historical state sequence,while the update block can capture the noise characteristic from the historical measurement sequence.Finally,a data association scheme based on Hungarian algorithm and the heuristic track management strategy are employed to assign measurements to targets and adapt births and deaths.Experimental results manifest that,compared with the existing tracking algorithms,our proposed MTIT-DLSTM algorithm can improve effectively the accuracy and robustness in estimating the state of targets appearing at random positions,and be applied to linear and nonlinear multi-target tracking scenarios.
基金This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2018YFC0407004)the Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.51939004 and 11772116).
文摘The unloading relaxation caused by excavation for construction of high arch dams is an important factor influencing the foundation’s integrity and strength.To evaluate the degree of unloading relaxation,the long-short term memory(LSTM)network was used to estimate the depth of unloading relaxation zones on the left bank foundation of the Baihetan Arch Dam.Principal component analysis indicates that rock charac-teristics,the structural plane,the protection layer,lithology,and time are the main factors.The LSTM network results demonstrate the unloading relaxation characteristics of the left bank,and the relationships with the factors were also analyzed.The structural plane has the most significant influence on the distribution of unloading relaxation zones.Compared with massive basalt,the columnar jointed basalt experiences a more significant unloading relaxation phenomenon with a clear time effect,with the average unloading relaxation period being 50 d.The protection layer can effectively reduce the unloading relaxation depth by approximately 20%.
文摘In dense pedestrian tracking,frequent object occlusions and close distances between objects cause difficulty when accurately estimating object trajectories.In this study,a conditional random field tracking model is established by using a visual long short term memory network in the three-dimensional(3D)space and the motion estimations jointly performed on object trajectory segments.Object visual field information is added to the long short term memory network to improve the accuracy of the motion related object pair selection and motion estimation.To address the uncertainty of the length and interval of trajectory segments,a multimode long short term memory network is proposed for the object motion estimation.The tracking performance is evaluated using the PETS2009 dataset.The experimental results show that the proposed method achieves better performance than the tracking methods based on the independent motion estimation.
基金supported by the Ministry of Trade,Industry & Energy(MOTIE,Korea) under Industrial Technology Innovation Program (No.10063424,'development of distant speech recognition and multi-task dialog processing technologies for in-door conversational robots')
文摘A Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM) Recurrent Neural Network(RNN) has driven tremendous improvements on an acoustic model based on Gaussian Mixture Model(GMM). However, these models based on a hybrid method require a forced aligned Hidden Markov Model(HMM) state sequence obtained from the GMM-based acoustic model. Therefore, it requires a long computation time for training both the GMM-based acoustic model and a deep learning-based acoustic model. In order to solve this problem, an acoustic model using CTC algorithm is proposed. CTC algorithm does not require the GMM-based acoustic model because it does not use the forced aligned HMM state sequence. However, previous works on a LSTM RNN-based acoustic model using CTC used a small-scale training corpus. In this paper, the LSTM RNN-based acoustic model using CTC is trained on a large-scale training corpus and its performance is evaluated. The implemented acoustic model has a performance of 6.18% and 15.01% in terms of Word Error Rate(WER) for clean speech and noisy speech, respectively. This is similar to a performance of the acoustic model based on the hybrid method.
基金Sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 50305005)
文摘Aimed at the problem that the traditional ART-2 neural network can not recognize a gradually changing course, an eternal term memory (ETM) vector is introduced into ART-2 to simulate the function of human brain, i.e. the deep remembrance for the initial impression.. The eternal term memory vector is determined only by the initial vector that establishes category neuron node and is used to keep the remembrance for this vector for ever. Two times of vigilance algorithm are put forward, and the posterior input vector must first pass the first vigilance of this eternal term memory vector, only succeeded has it the qualification to begin the second vigilance of long term memory vector. The long term memory vector can be revised only when both of the vigilances are passed. Results of recognition examples show that the improved ART-2 overcomes the defect of traditional ART-2 and can recognize a gradually changing course effectively.
基金the Gansu Province Soft Scientific Research Projects(No.2015GS06516)the Funds for Distinguished Young Scientists of Lanzhou University of Technology,China(No.J201304)。
文摘Predicting wind speed accurately is essential to ensure the stability of the wind power system and improve the utilization rate of wind energy.However,owing to the stochastic and intermittent of wind speed,predicting wind speed accurately is difficult.A new hybrid deep learning model based on empirical wavelet transform,recurrent neural network and error correction for short-term wind speed prediction is proposed in this paper.The empirical wavelet transformation is applied to decompose the original wind speed series.The long short term memory network and the Elman neural network are adopted to predict low-frequency and high-frequency wind speed sub-layers respectively to balance the calculation efficiency and prediction accuracy.The error correction strategy based on deep long short term memory network is developed to modify the prediction errors.Four actual wind speed series are utilized to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model.The empirical results indicate that the method proposed in this paper has satisfactory performance in wind speed prediction.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61876097,61673188,61761130081)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFB0800402)+1 种基金the Foundation for Innovative Research Groups of Hubei Province of China(2017CFA005)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(2017KFXKJC002)
文摘Traditional recurrent neural networks are composed of capacitors, inductors, resistors, and operational amplifiers.Memristive neural networks are constructed by replacing resistors with memristors. This paper focuses on the memory analysis,i.e. the initial value computation, of memristors. Firstly, we present the memory analysis for a single memristor based on memristors’ mathematical models with linear and nonlinear drift.Secondly, we present the memory analysis for two memristors in series and parallel. Thirdly, we point out the difference between traditional neural networks and those that are memristive. Based on the current and voltage relationship of memristors, we use mathematical analysis and SPICE simulations to demonstrate the validity of our methods.
基金supported by a State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co.,Ltd.Economic and Technical Research Institute Project(Key Technologies and Empirical Research of Diversified Integrated Operation of User-Side Energy Storage in Power Market Environment,No.5211JY19000W)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Research on Power Market Management to Promote Large-Scale New Energy Consumption,No.71804045).
文摘In the electricity market,fluctuations in real-time prices are unstable,and changes in short-term load are determined by many factors.By studying the timing of charging and discharging,as well as the economic benefits of energy storage in the process of participating in the power market,this paper takes energy storage scheduling as merely one factor affecting short-term power load,which affects short-term load time series along with time-of-use price,holidays,and temperature.A deep learning network is used to predict the short-term load,a convolutional neural network(CNN)is used to extract the features,and a long short-term memory(LSTM)network is used to learn the temporal characteristics of the load value,which can effectively improve prediction accuracy.Taking the load data of a certain region as an example,the CNN-LSTM prediction model is compared with the single LSTM prediction model.The experimental results show that the CNN-LSTM deep learning network with the participation of energy storage in dispatching can have high prediction accuracy for short-term power load forecasting.
基金funded by Fujian Science and Technology Key Project(No.2016H6022,2018J01099,2017H0037)
文摘The fraction defective of semi-finished products is predicted to optimize the process of relay production lines, by which production quality and productivity are increased, and the costs are decreased. The process parameters of relay production lines are studied based on the long-and-short-term memory network. Then, the Keras deep learning framework is utilized to build up a short-term relay quality prediction algorithm for the semi-finished product. A simulation model is used to study prediction algorithm. The simulation results show that the average prediction absolute error of the fraction is less than 5%. This work displays great application potential in the relay production lines.
基金support of national natural science foundation of China(No.52067021)natural science foundation of Xinjiang(2022D01C35)+1 种基金excellent youth scientific and technological talents plan of Xinjiang(No.2019Q012)major science&technology special project of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(2022A01002-2)。
文摘Wind power volatility not only limits the large-scale grid connection but also poses many challenges to safe grid operation.Accurate wind power prediction can mitigate the adverse effects of wind power volatility on wind power grid connections.For the characteristics of wind power antecedent data and precedent data jointly to determine the prediction accuracy of the prediction model,the short-term prediction of wind power based on a combined neural network is proposed.First,the Bi-directional Long Short Term Memory(BiLSTM)network prediction model is constructed,and the bi-directional nature of the BiLSTM network is used to deeply mine the wind power data information and find the correlation information within the data.Secondly,to avoid the limitation of a single prediction model when the wind power changes abruptly,the Wavelet Transform-Improved Adaptive Genetic Algorithm-Back Propagation(WT-IAGA-BP)neural network based on the combination of the WT-IAGA-BP neural network and BiLSTM network is constructed for the short-term prediction of wind power.Finally,comparing with LSTM,BiLSTM,WT-LSTM,WT-BiLSTM,WT-IAGA-BP,and WT-IAGA-BP&LSTM prediction models,it is verified that the wind power short-term prediction model based on the combination of WT-IAGA-BP neural network and BiLSTM network has higher prediction accuracy.
文摘Lithium-ion batteries are the most widely accepted type of battery in the electric vehicle industry because of some of their positive inherent characteristics. However, the safety problems associated with inaccurate estimation and prediction of the state of health of these batteries have attracted wide attention due to the adverse negative effect on vehicle safety. In this paper, both machine and deep learning models were used to estimate the state of health of lithium-ion batteries. The paper introduces the definition of battery health status and its importance in the electric vehicle industry. Based on the data preprocessing and visualization analysis, three features related to actual battery capacity degradation are extracted from the data. Two learning models, SVR and LSTM were employed for the state of health estimation and their respective results are compared in this paper. The mean square error and coefficient of determination were the two metrics for the performance evaluation of the models. The experimental results indicate that both models have high estimation results. However, the metrics indicated that the SVR was the overall best model.
文摘针对不同磁密幅值、频率、谐波组合等复杂激励工况下磁致伸缩建模面临的精准性问题,该文利用空间注意力机制(spatial attention mechanism,SAM)对传统的卷积神经网络(convolutional neural network,CNN)进行改进,将SAM嵌套入CNN网络中,建立SAMCNN改进型网络。再结合双向长短期记忆(bidirectional long short-term memory,BiLSTM)网络,提出电工钢片SAMCNN-BiLSTM磁致伸缩模型。首先,利用灰狼优化算法(grey wolf optimization,GWO)寻优神经网络结构的参数,实现复杂工况下磁致伸缩效应的准确表征;然后,建立中低频范围单频与叠加谐波激励等复杂工况下的磁致伸缩应变数据库,开展数据预处理与特征分析;最后,对SAMCNN-BiLSTM模型开展对比验证。对比叠加3次谐波激励下的磁致伸缩应变频谱主要分量,SAMCNN-BiLSTM模型计算值最大相对误差为3.70%,其比Jiles-Atherton-Sablik(J-A-S)、二次畴转等模型能更精确地表征电工钢片的磁致伸缩效应。
文摘目的探讨自回归移动平均模型-长短期记忆(autoregressive integrated moving average-long short-term memory,ARIMA-LSTM)组合模型在肾综合征出血热(hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome,HFRS)不同流行模式发病率预测中应用的可行性。方法收集1961—2020年全国HFRS年发病率、2004年1月至2020年12月全国、黑龙江省、吉林省、辽宁省、陕西省、山东省、河北省、广东省HFRS逐月发病率数据;全国及黑龙江省作为冬峰较春峰高代表,吉林省、辽宁省作为春峰与冬峰相当代表,陕西省、山东省作为仅存在冬峰代表,河北省、广东省作为仅存在春峰代表。1961—2014年逐年发病率、2004年1月至2020年6月逐月发病率数据作为训练集,2015—2020年逐年发病率、2020年7-12月逐月发病率数据作为测试集。分别建立ARIMA模型、ARIMA-LSTM组合模型,采用平均绝对百分比误差下降率(decline rate of mean absolute percentage error,DR_(MAPE))、均方根误差下降率(decline rate of root mean squared error,DRRMSE)评价模型拟合及预测精度优化程度。结果全国逐年、全国及黑龙江省、吉林省、辽宁省、陕西省、山东省、河北省、广东省逐月HFRS发病率拟合最佳ARIMA模型分别为ARIMA(2,0,0)、ARIMA(3,1,0)(2,1,1)_(12)、ARIMA(2,0,1)(2,1,1)_(12)、ARIMA(3,0,0)(2,1,1)_(12)含常数项、ARIMA(2,1,1)(2,1,1)_(12)、ARIMA(1,0,3)(1,1,0)_(12)、ARIMA(0,1,3)(2,1,1)_(12)、ARIMA(1,1,3)(2,0,0)_(12)、ARIMA(3,1,1)(1,1,1)_(12)。全国逐年、全国及黑龙江省、吉林省、辽宁省、陕西省、山东省、河北省、广东省逐月数据建立ARIMA-LSTM组合模型较ARIMA模型拟合的DR_(MAPE)依次为-19.57%、-46.38%、-43.27%、-46.37%、-49.70%、-48.36%、-58.23%、-35.52%、-48.74%;DRRMSE依次为-11.21%、-36.17%、-64.89%、-55.68%、-54.81%、-31.76%、-39.69%、-55.64%、-30.06%。全国逐年、全国及黑龙江省、吉林省、辽宁省、陕西省、山东省、河北省、广东省逐月数据建立ARIMA-LSTM组合模型较ARIMA模型预测的DR_(MAPE)依次为-11.10%、-8.69%、-19.68%、-36.17%、-55.57%、-9.44%、-14.60%、-14.22%、-9.26%;DRRMSE依次为-14.43%、-7.42%、-12.66%、-13.83%、-36.56%、10.37%、81.14%、-19.68%、-1.18%。结论ARIMA-LSTM组合模型总体在各类HFRS数据中拟合及预测效果均优于ARIMA模型,LSTM适于我国HFRS预测模型优化,但陕西省和山东省不适于ARIMA-LSTM预测。
