Road traffic flow forecasting provides critical information for the operational management of road mobility challenges, and models are used to generate the forecast. This paper uses a random process to present a novel...Road traffic flow forecasting provides critical information for the operational management of road mobility challenges, and models are used to generate the forecast. This paper uses a random process to present a novel traffic modelling framework for aggregate traffic on urban roads. The main idea is that road traffic flow is random, even for the recurrent flow, such as rush hour traffic, which is predisposed to congestion. Therefore, the structure of the aggregate traffic flow model for urban roads should correlate well with the essential variables of the observed random dynamics of the traffic flow phenomena. The novelty of this paper is the developed framework, based on the Poisson process, the kinematics of urban road traffic flow, and the intermediate modelling approach, which were combined to formulate the model. Empirical data from an urban road in Ghana was used to explore the model’s fidelity. The results show that the distribution from the model correlates well with that of the empirical traffic, providing a strong validation of the new framework and instilling confidence in its potential for significantly improved forecasts and, hence, a more hopeful outlook for real-world traffic management.展开更多
Numerical modelling of coastal morphology is a complex and sometimes unrewarding exercise and often not yielding tangible results. Typically, the underlying drivers of morphology are not properly accounted for in nume...Numerical modelling of coastal morphology is a complex and sometimes unrewarding exercise and often not yielding tangible results. Typically, the underlying drivers of morphology are not properly accounted for in numerical models. Such inaccuracies combined with a paucity of validation data create a difficulty for coastal planners/engineers who are required to interpret such morphological models to develop coastal management strategies. This study develops an approach to long term morphological modelling of a barrier beach system that includes the findings of over 10 years of coastal monitoring on a dynamic coastal system. The novel approach to predicting the long term evolution of the area combines a mix of short term hydrodynamic monitoring and long term morphological modelling to predict future changes in a breached barrier system. A coupled wave, wind, hydrodynamic and sediment transport numerical model was used to predict the coastal evolution in the dynamic barrier beach system of Inner Dingle Bay, Co. Kerry, Ireland. The modelling approach utilizes the schematisation of inputs to reflect observed trends. The approach is subject to two stages of validation both quantitative and qualitative. The study highlights the importance of considering all the parameters responsible for driving coastal evolution and the necessity to have long term monitoring results for trend based validation.展开更多
In the study of complex networks （systems）, the scaling phenomenon of flow fluctuations refers to a certain powerlaw between the mean flux （activity） （Fi） of the i-th node and its variance σi as σi α （Fi）α...In the study of complex networks （systems）, the scaling phenomenon of flow fluctuations refers to a certain powerlaw between the mean flux （activity） （Fi） of the i-th node and its variance σi as σi α （Fi）α Such scaling laws are found to be prevalent both in natural and man-made network systems, but the understanding of their origins still remains limited. This paper proposes a non-stationary Poisson process model to give an analytical explanation of the non-universal scaling phenomenon： the exponent α varies between 1/2 and 1 depending on the size of sampling time window and the relative strength of the external/internal driven forces of the systems. The crossover behaviour and the relation of fluctuation scaling with pseudo long range dependence are also accounted for by the model. Numerical experiments show that the proposed model can recover the multi-scaiing phenomenon.展开更多
In this paper we investigate the dynamics of an asymmetric exclusion process on a one-dimensional lattice with long- range hopping and random update via Monte Carlo simulations theoretically. Particles in the model wi...In this paper we investigate the dynamics of an asymmetric exclusion process on a one-dimensional lattice with long- range hopping and random update via Monte Carlo simulations theoretically. Particles in the model will firstly try to hop over successive unoccupied sites with a probability q, which is different from previous exclusion process models. The probability q may represent the random access of particles. Numerical simulations for stationary particle currents, density profiles, and phase diagrams are obtained. There are three possible stationary phases： the low density （LD） phase, high density （HD） phase, and maximal current （MC） in the system, respectively. Interestingly, bulk density in the LD phase tends to zero, while the MC phase is governed by α,β, and q. The HD phase is nearly the same as the normal TASEP, determined by exit rate β. Theoretical analysis is in good agreement with simulation results. The proposed model may provide a better understanding of random interaction dynamics in complex systems.展开更多
Let {Xt,t ≥ 1} be a moving average process defined by Xt = ∑^∞ k=0 αkξt-k, where {αk,k ≥ 0} is a sequence of real numbers and {ξt,-∞ 〈 t 〈 ∞} is a doubly infinite sequence of strictly stationary dependen...Let {Xt,t ≥ 1} be a moving average process defined by Xt = ∑^∞ k=0 αkξt-k, where {αk,k ≥ 0} is a sequence of real numbers and {ξt,-∞ 〈 t 〈 ∞} is a doubly infinite sequence of strictly stationary dependent random variables. Under the conditions of {αk, k ≥ 0} which entail that {Xt, t ≥ 1} is either a long memory process or a linear process, the strong approximation of {Xt, t ≥ 1} to a Gaussian process is studied. Finally, the results are applied to obtain the strong approximation of a long memory process to a fractional Brownian motion and the laws of the iterated logarithm for moving average processes.展开更多
The limited physical size for autonomous underwater vehicles （AUV） or unmanned underwater vehicles （UUV） makes it difficult to acquire enough space gain for localizing long-distance targets. A new technique about ...The limited physical size for autonomous underwater vehicles （AUV） or unmanned underwater vehicles （UUV） makes it difficult to acquire enough space gain for localizing long-distance targets. A new technique about long-distance target apperception with passive synthetic aperture array for underwater vehicles is presented. First, a synthetic aperture-processing algorithm based on the FFT transform in the beam space （BSSAP） is introduced. Then, the study on the flank array passive long-distance apperception techniques in the frequency scope of 11-18 kHz is implemented from the view of improving array gains, detection probability and augmenting detected range under a certain sea environment. The results show that the BSSAP algorithm can extend the aperture effectively and improve detection probability. Because of the augment of the transmission loss, the detected range has the trend of decline with the increase of frequency under the same target source level. The synthesized array could improve the space gain by nearly 7 dB and SNR is increased by about 5 dB. The detected range is enhanced to nearly 2 km under the condition of 108-118 dB of the target source level for AUV system in measurement interval of nearly 1 s.展开更多
A novel phosphor of un-doped Sr Zr Si2O7 material with blue long lasting phosphorescence which could be recorded for about 5400 s（0.32 mcd/m^2） was developed. It revealed that both the emission centers and traps lev...A novel phosphor of un-doped Sr Zr Si2O7 material with blue long lasting phosphorescence which could be recorded for about 5400 s（0.32 mcd/m^2） was developed. It revealed that both the emission centers and traps levels were related to the oxygen-deficient defects which were induced in reducing atmosphere. The filling and fading experiments indicated that the traps levels in Sr Zr Si2O7 were continuous in distribution. The influence of shallow traps on deep traps was investigated and the important role of the bridge effect was revealed. The un-doped Sr Zr Si2O7 material obtained in reducing atmosphere showed potential application as a cheap blue long lasting phosphorescence phosphor.展开更多
Many of the important questions facing farming systems in the world today require long-term studies to provide meaningful information and answers. A long-term agronomic experiment (LTAE) should (1) have long-term obje...Many of the important questions facing farming systems in the world today require long-term studies to provide meaningful information and answers. A long-term agronomic experiment (LTAE) should (1) have long-term objectives; (2) study important soil processes or ecological processes; and (3) be related to the productivity and sustainability of systems. A well established LTAE can provide both insights into how the system operates and foresight into where the system goes. The prerequisites for setting up a LTAE are the secured land, continuous funding and dedicated scientists. A number of principles must be considered carefully when establishing a LTAE, (1) the site must be representative of large areas; (2) the treatments should be simple, but focusing on the big questions; (3) the plots should be large enough to allow subsequent modification of the experiment if this becomes necessary; (4) crop rotations should minimise, wherever possible, the risk of build-up of pests and diseases, and rotational phase should be considered in a rotational experiment; (5) a clearly defined experimental protocol should be developed to ensure data collected is scientifically valid and statistically analysable, but with flexibility to allow essential changes; (6) soil samples, possibly plant samples, should be achieved to provide better answer to the original questions when new, perhaps more accurate analytical techniques are developed, or answer new research questions that were not considered in the original design. The MASTER experiment in Australia was used as a case study to demonstrate how these principles are implemented in practice.展开更多
Road transport safety has always been paid attention to by the safety production managers of enterprises. In this study, cloud model and analytic hierarchy process were applied to the safety of long-tube trailer trans...Road transport safety has always been paid attention to by the safety production managers of enterprises. In this study, cloud model and analytic hierarchy process were applied to the safety of long-tube trailer transport. The opinions of 30 experts were analyzed, from which 29 key parameters were selected. The study addressed the relevance of the parameters and the possibility of automatic collection and transmission to obtain 12 core risk factors. The macro-safety risk indicator system for long-tube trailers was established based on the identified risk indicators. Finally, a risk assessment model for road transport of long tube trailers consisting of 3 dimensions of likelihood, severity and sensitivity was constructed. This model provides a technical method for strengthening the risk control of road transport of long-tube trailers.展开更多
文摘Road traffic flow forecasting provides critical information for the operational management of road mobility challenges, and models are used to generate the forecast. This paper uses a random process to present a novel traffic modelling framework for aggregate traffic on urban roads. The main idea is that road traffic flow is random, even for the recurrent flow, such as rush hour traffic, which is predisposed to congestion. Therefore, the structure of the aggregate traffic flow model for urban roads should correlate well with the essential variables of the observed random dynamics of the traffic flow phenomena. The novelty of this paper is the developed framework, based on the Poisson process, the kinematics of urban road traffic flow, and the intermediate modelling approach, which were combined to formulate the model. Empirical data from an urban road in Ghana was used to explore the model’s fidelity. The results show that the distribution from the model correlates well with that of the empirical traffic, providing a strong validation of the new framework and instilling confidence in its potential for significantly improved forecasts and, hence, a more hopeful outlook for real-world traffic management.
文摘Numerical modelling of coastal morphology is a complex and sometimes unrewarding exercise and often not yielding tangible results. Typically, the underlying drivers of morphology are not properly accounted for in numerical models. Such inaccuracies combined with a paucity of validation data create a difficulty for coastal planners/engineers who are required to interpret such morphological models to develop coastal management strategies. This study develops an approach to long term morphological modelling of a barrier beach system that includes the findings of over 10 years of coastal monitoring on a dynamic coastal system. The novel approach to predicting the long term evolution of the area combines a mix of short term hydrodynamic monitoring and long term morphological modelling to predict future changes in a breached barrier system. A coupled wave, wind, hydrodynamic and sediment transport numerical model was used to predict the coastal evolution in the dynamic barrier beach system of Inner Dingle Bay, Co. Kerry, Ireland. The modelling approach utilizes the schematisation of inputs to reflect observed trends. The approach is subject to two stages of validation both quantitative and qualitative. The study highlights the importance of considering all the parameters responsible for driving coastal evolution and the necessity to have long term monitoring results for trend based validation.
基金Project supported in part by National Basic Research Program of China (973 Project) (Grant No 2006CB705506)Hi-Tech Research and Development Program of China (863 Project) (Grant No 2007AA11Z222)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos 60721003 and 60774034)
文摘In the study of complex networks （systems）, the scaling phenomenon of flow fluctuations refers to a certain powerlaw between the mean flux （activity） （Fi） of the i-th node and its variance σi as σi α （Fi）α Such scaling laws are found to be prevalent both in natural and man-made network systems, but the understanding of their origins still remains limited. This paper proposes a non-stationary Poisson process model to give an analytical explanation of the non-universal scaling phenomenon： the exponent α varies between 1/2 and 1 depending on the size of sampling time window and the relative strength of the external/internal driven forces of the systems. The crossover behaviour and the relation of fluctuation scaling with pseudo long range dependence are also accounted for by the model. Numerical experiments show that the proposed model can recover the multi-scaiing phenomenon.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41274109 and 11104022)the Fund for Sichuan Youth Science and Technology Innovation Research Team(Grant No.2011JTD0013)the Creative Team Program of Chengdu University of Technology
文摘In this paper we investigate the dynamics of an asymmetric exclusion process on a one-dimensional lattice with long- range hopping and random update via Monte Carlo simulations theoretically. Particles in the model will firstly try to hop over successive unoccupied sites with a probability q, which is different from previous exclusion process models. The probability q may represent the random access of particles. Numerical simulations for stationary particle currents, density profiles, and phase diagrams are obtained. There are three possible stationary phases： the low density （LD） phase, high density （HD） phase, and maximal current （MC） in the system, respectively. Interestingly, bulk density in the LD phase tends to zero, while the MC phase is governed by α,β, and q. The HD phase is nearly the same as the normal TASEP, determined by exit rate β. Theoretical analysis is in good agreement with simulation results. The proposed model may provide a better understanding of random interaction dynamics in complex systems.
文摘Let {Xt,t ≥ 1} be a moving average process defined by Xt = ∑^∞ k=0 αkξt-k, where {αk,k ≥ 0} is a sequence of real numbers and {ξt,-∞ 〈 t 〈 ∞} is a doubly infinite sequence of strictly stationary dependent random variables. Under the conditions of {αk, k ≥ 0} which entail that {Xt, t ≥ 1} is either a long memory process or a linear process, the strong approximation of {Xt, t ≥ 1} to a Gaussian process is studied. Finally, the results are applied to obtain the strong approximation of a long memory process to a fractional Brownian motion and the laws of the iterated logarithm for moving average processes.
文摘The limited physical size for autonomous underwater vehicles （AUV） or unmanned underwater vehicles （UUV） makes it difficult to acquire enough space gain for localizing long-distance targets. A new technique about long-distance target apperception with passive synthetic aperture array for underwater vehicles is presented. First, a synthetic aperture-processing algorithm based on the FFT transform in the beam space （BSSAP） is introduced. Then, the study on the flank array passive long-distance apperception techniques in the frequency scope of 11-18 kHz is implemented from the view of improving array gains, detection probability and augmenting detected range under a certain sea environment. The results show that the BSSAP algorithm can extend the aperture effectively and improve detection probability. Because of the augment of the transmission loss, the detected range has the trend of decline with the increase of frequency under the same target source level. The synthesized array could improve the space gain by nearly 7 dB and SNR is increased by about 5 dB. The detected range is enhanced to nearly 2 km under the condition of 108-118 dB of the target source level for AUV system in measurement interval of nearly 1 s.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Young Foundation of China(51202099)the Gansu Provincial Department of Finance Project(BH2012-017)the Gansu Province University Research Foundation(2013B-059)
文摘A novel phosphor of un-doped Sr Zr Si2O7 material with blue long lasting phosphorescence which could be recorded for about 5400 s（0.32 mcd/m^2） was developed. It revealed that both the emission centers and traps levels were related to the oxygen-deficient defects which were induced in reducing atmosphere. The filling and fading experiments indicated that the traps levels in Sr Zr Si2O7 were continuous in distribution. The influence of shallow traps on deep traps was investigated and the important role of the bridge effect was revealed. The un-doped Sr Zr Si2O7 material obtained in reducing atmosphere showed potential application as a cheap blue long lasting phosphorescence phosphor.
基金supported by the CAS/SAFEA International Partnership Program for Creative Research Teams (CXTD-Z2005-2-4)
文摘Many of the important questions facing farming systems in the world today require long-term studies to provide meaningful information and answers. A long-term agronomic experiment (LTAE) should (1) have long-term objectives; (2) study important soil processes or ecological processes; and (3) be related to the productivity and sustainability of systems. A well established LTAE can provide both insights into how the system operates and foresight into where the system goes. The prerequisites for setting up a LTAE are the secured land, continuous funding and dedicated scientists. A number of principles must be considered carefully when establishing a LTAE, (1) the site must be representative of large areas; (2) the treatments should be simple, but focusing on the big questions; (3) the plots should be large enough to allow subsequent modification of the experiment if this becomes necessary; (4) crop rotations should minimise, wherever possible, the risk of build-up of pests and diseases, and rotational phase should be considered in a rotational experiment; (5) a clearly defined experimental protocol should be developed to ensure data collected is scientifically valid and statistically analysable, but with flexibility to allow essential changes; (6) soil samples, possibly plant samples, should be achieved to provide better answer to the original questions when new, perhaps more accurate analytical techniques are developed, or answer new research questions that were not considered in the original design. The MASTER experiment in Australia was used as a case study to demonstrate how these principles are implemented in practice.
文摘Road transport safety has always been paid attention to by the safety production managers of enterprises. In this study, cloud model and analytic hierarchy process were applied to the safety of long-tube trailer transport. The opinions of 30 experts were analyzed, from which 29 key parameters were selected. The study addressed the relevance of the parameters and the possibility of automatic collection and transmission to obtain 12 core risk factors. The macro-safety risk indicator system for long-tube trailers was established based on the identified risk indicators. Finally, a risk assessment model for road transport of long tube trailers consisting of 3 dimensions of likelihood, severity and sensitivity was constructed. This model provides a technical method for strengthening the risk control of road transport of long-tube trailers.
