in this paper, we describe a new method for assessing the degree in which the individual case influence the maximum likelihood estimation of link parameter in generalized linear model. Several influential statistics ...in this paper, we describe a new method for assessing the degree in which the individual case influence the maximum likelihood estimation of link parameter in generalized linear model. Several influential statistics are illustrated with two examples.展开更多
该文提出一种参数化预报方法,制作北京及其周边地区夏季空气质量气象条件指数预报。采用2000—2007年7—9月北京市观象台大气成分(PM10)逐日观测资料和华北区域气象站网加密地面观测及探空信息,分析北京地区夏季奥运会历史同期与高污染...该文提出一种参数化预报方法,制作北京及其周边地区夏季空气质量气象条件指数预报。采用2000—2007年7—9月北京市观象台大气成分(PM10)逐日观测资料和华北区域气象站网加密地面观测及探空信息,分析北京地区夏季奥运会历史同期与高污染过程(PM10浓度>150μg/m3)关系密切的敏感气象要素和变量。引入适应度函数分级方法,计算北京周边不同观测站可能形成污染向北京输送的权重,建立北京夏季空气质量气象条件参数PLAM(parameters linking air-quality and meteorology)预报模型。PLAM指数给出北京局地污染气象条件的客观定量诊断和预测,并可指示周边地区有利(或不利)于污染向北京输送的强度和方位。夏季"静稳型"气象条件参数化PLAM方法为北京奥运气象保障任务实时提供预报产品,分别用PM10及可吸入颗粒物指数(API)对2008年7—8月PLAM逐日预报进行检验,相关系数达到0.001显著性水平。展开更多
An upswing in haze weather during autumn and winter has been observed over North and Northeast China in re- cent years, imposing adverse impacts upon local socioeconomic development and human health. However, such an ...An upswing in haze weather during autumn and winter has been observed over North and Northeast China in re- cent years, imposing adverse impacts upon local socioeconomic development and human health. However, such an increase in the occurrence of haze events and its association with natural climate variability and climate change are not well understood. To investigate the climatology of the meteorological factors associated with haze events and their natural variability, this study uses a meteorological pollution index called PLAM （Parameter Linking Air-qual- ity to Meteorological conditions） and ERA-Interim reanalysis data. The results suggest that high PLAM values tend to occur over southern parts of northem China, implying the weather conditions over this area are favorable for the occurrence of haze weather. For the period 1979-2014, the regional mean PLAM shows an overall increase across Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei Province, and parts of Shanxi Province. Also, a periodicity of 28-34 months is found in the temporal variation of PLAM, which implies a potential association of PLAM with the stratospheric Quasi-Bian- nual Oscillation （QBO）. By using the QBO index during the autumn and winter seasons in the preceding year, an in- crease in PLAM is found for the westerly phases of the QBO, relative to the easterly phases. An upper-tropospheric warming is also found in the westerly phases, which can induce a stable stratification that favors the increase in PLAM across the midlatitudes. The modulations of large-scale environmental factors, including moist static stability, vertical velocity, and temperattu＇e advection, also act to enhance PLAM in the westerly phases. However, the baro- clinic term of moist potential vorticity at 700 hPa tends to decrease over the south, and an increase in low-level as- cent is found over the north. These factors can reduce PLAM and possibly limit the statistical significance of the in- creased PLAM in the westerly phases of the QBO.展开更多
文摘in this paper, we describe a new method for assessing the degree in which the individual case influence the maximum likelihood estimation of link parameter in generalized linear model. Several influential statistics are illustrated with two examples.
文摘该文提出一种参数化预报方法,制作北京及其周边地区夏季空气质量气象条件指数预报。采用2000—2007年7—9月北京市观象台大气成分(PM10)逐日观测资料和华北区域气象站网加密地面观测及探空信息,分析北京地区夏季奥运会历史同期与高污染过程(PM10浓度>150μg/m3)关系密切的敏感气象要素和变量。引入适应度函数分级方法,计算北京周边不同观测站可能形成污染向北京输送的权重,建立北京夏季空气质量气象条件参数PLAM(parameters linking air-quality and meteorology)预报模型。PLAM指数给出北京局地污染气象条件的客观定量诊断和预测,并可指示周边地区有利(或不利)于污染向北京输送的强度和方位。夏季"静稳型"气象条件参数化PLAM方法为北京奥运气象保障任务实时提供预报产品,分别用PM10及可吸入颗粒物指数(API)对2008年7—8月PLAM逐日预报进行检验,相关系数达到0.001显著性水平。
文摘An upswing in haze weather during autumn and winter has been observed over North and Northeast China in re- cent years, imposing adverse impacts upon local socioeconomic development and human health. However, such an increase in the occurrence of haze events and its association with natural climate variability and climate change are not well understood. To investigate the climatology of the meteorological factors associated with haze events and their natural variability, this study uses a meteorological pollution index called PLAM （Parameter Linking Air-qual- ity to Meteorological conditions） and ERA-Interim reanalysis data. The results suggest that high PLAM values tend to occur over southern parts of northem China, implying the weather conditions over this area are favorable for the occurrence of haze weather. For the period 1979-2014, the regional mean PLAM shows an overall increase across Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei Province, and parts of Shanxi Province. Also, a periodicity of 28-34 months is found in the temporal variation of PLAM, which implies a potential association of PLAM with the stratospheric Quasi-Bian- nual Oscillation （QBO）. By using the QBO index during the autumn and winter seasons in the preceding year, an in- crease in PLAM is found for the westerly phases of the QBO, relative to the easterly phases. An upper-tropospheric warming is also found in the westerly phases, which can induce a stable stratification that favors the increase in PLAM across the midlatitudes. The modulations of large-scale environmental factors, including moist static stability, vertical velocity, and temperattu＇e advection, also act to enhance PLAM in the westerly phases. However, the baro- clinic term of moist potential vorticity at 700 hPa tends to decrease over the south, and an increase in low-level as- cent is found over the north. These factors can reduce PLAM and possibly limit the statistical significance of the in- creased PLAM in the westerly phases of the QBO.
