Mixed-effects models,also called random-effects models,are a regression type of analysis which enables the analyst to not only describe the trend over time within each subject,but also to describe the variation among ...Mixed-effects models,also called random-effects models,are a regression type of analysis which enables the analyst to not only describe the trend over time within each subject,but also to describe the variation among different subjects.Nonlinear mixed-effects models provide a powerful and flexible tool for handling the unbalanced count data.In this paper,nonlinear mixed-effects models are used to analyze the failure data from a repairable system with multiple copies.By using this type of models,statistical inferences about the population and all copies can be made when accounting for copy-to-copy variance.Results of fitting nonlinear mixed-effects models to nine failure-data sets show that the nonlinear mixed-effects models provide a useful tool for analyzing the failure data from multi-copy repairable systems.展开更多
The linear mixed-effects model （LMM） is a very useful tool for analyzing cluster data. In practice, however, the exact values of the variables are often difficult to observe. In this paper, we consider the LMM with ...The linear mixed-effects model （LMM） is a very useful tool for analyzing cluster data. In practice, however, the exact values of the variables are often difficult to observe. In this paper, we consider the LMM with measurement errors in the covariates. The empirical BLUP estimator of the linear combination of the fixed and random effects and its approximate conditional MSE are derived. The application to the estimation of small area is provided. Simulation study shows good performance of the proposed estimators.展开更多
Nonlinear mixed-eirects (NLME) modek have become popular in various disciplines over the past several decades.However,the existing methods for parameter estimation imple-mented in standard statistical packages such as...Nonlinear mixed-eirects (NLME) modek have become popular in various disciplines over the past several decades.However,the existing methods for parameter estimation imple-mented in standard statistical packages such as SAS and R/S-Plus are generally limited k) single-or multi-level NLME models that only allow nested random effects and are unable to cope with crossed random effects within the framework of NLME modeling.In t his study,wc propose a general formulation of NLME models that can accommodate both nested and crassed random effects,and then develop a computational algorit hm for parameter estimation based on normal assumptions.The maximum likelihood estimation is carried out using the first-order conditional expansion (FOCE) for NLME model linearization and sequential quadratic programming (SCJP) for computational optimization while ensuring positive-definiteness of the estimated variance-covariance matrices of both random effects and error terms.The FOCE-SQP algorithm is evaluated using the height and diameter data measured on trees from Korean larch (L.olgeiisis var,Chang-paienA.b) experimental plots aa well as simulation studies.We show that the FOCE-SQP method converges fast with high accuracy.Applications of the general formulation of NLME models are illustrated with an analysis of the Korean larch data.展开更多
The study of the mechanical property and damage state of coal materials under compression is a fundamental area of research in underground mining engineering.Drawing upon the compaction effect and linear energy dissip...The study of the mechanical property and damage state of coal materials under compression is a fundamental area of research in underground mining engineering.Drawing upon the compaction effect and linear energy dissipation(LED)law,a novel compressive damage constitutive model for brittle coal is proposed.Utilizing the energy-defined damage method for mate-rials,the LED law is innovatively introduced to accurately characterize the energy dissipation during the loading process,and a novel formula for characterizing the damage variable of brittle coal is proposed.On this basis,considering that the constitutive model based on the hypothesis of strain equivalence is incapable of accurately describing the compaction effect exhibited by coal material during the compression process,a correction coefficient is proposed and apply it in the novel damage constitutive model.The established conventional monotone loading and single-cyclic loading-unloading uniaxial compression damage constitutive models have been validated using experimental data from cylindrical and cuboid coal specimens.In addition,compared with the constitutive model obtained via the traditional energy calculation method based on the hypothesis that the unloading curve is a straight line,the constitutive model employing LED law can describe the stress-strain state of brittle coal more precisely.This approach introduces a new perspective and enhances the convenience for constructing the constitutive model based on energy theory.展开更多
Firstly,based on the data of air quality and the meteorological data in Baoding City from 2017 to 2021,the correlations of meteorological elements and pollutants with O_(3)concentration were explored to determine the ...Firstly,based on the data of air quality and the meteorological data in Baoding City from 2017 to 2021,the correlations of meteorological elements and pollutants with O_(3)concentration were explored to determine the forecast factors of forecast models.Secondly,the O_(3)-8h concentration in Baoding City in 2021 was predicted based on the constructed models of multiple linear regression(MLR),backward propagation neural network(BPNN),and auto regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA),and the predicted values were compared with the observed values to test their prediction effects.The results show that overall,the MLR,BPNN and ARIMA models were able to forecast the changing trend of O_(3)-8h concentration in Baoding in 2021,but the BPNN model gave better forecast results than the ARIMA and MLR models,especially for the prediction of the high values of O_(3)-8h concentration,and the correlation coefficients between the predicted values and the observed values were all higher than 0.9 during June-September.The mean error(ME),mean absolute error(MAE),and root mean square error(RMSE)of the predicted values and the observed values of daily O_(3)-8h concentration based on the BPNN model were 0.45,19.11 and 24.41μg/m 3,respectively,which were significantly better than those of the MLR and ARIMA models.The prediction effects of the MLR,BPNN and ARIMA models were the best at the pollution level,followed by the excellent level,and it was the worst at the good level.In comparison,the prediction effect of BPNN model was better than that of the MLR and ARIMA models as a whole,especially for the pollution and excellent levels.The TS scores of the BPNN model were all above 66%,and the PC values were above 86%.The BPNN model can forecast the changing trend of O_(3)concentration more accurately,and has a good practical application value,but at the same time,the predicted high values of O_(3)concentration should be appropriately increased according to error characteristics of the model.展开更多
The Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)is a key atmospheric component connecting global weather and climate.It func-tions as a primary source for subseasonal forecasts.Previous studies have highlighted the vital impact of ...The Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)is a key atmospheric component connecting global weather and climate.It func-tions as a primary source for subseasonal forecasts.Previous studies have highlighted the vital impact of oceanic processes on MJO propagation.However,few existing MJO prediction approaches adequately consider these factors.This study determines the critical region for the oceanic processes affecting MJO propagation by utilizing 22-year Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data.By intro-ducing surface and subsurface oceanic temperature within this critical region into a lagged multiple linear regression model,the MJO forecasting skill is considerably optimized.This optimization leads to a 12 h enhancement in the forecasting skill of the first principal component and efficiently decreases prediction errors for the total predictions.Further analysis suggests that,during the years in which MJO events propagate across the Maritime Continent over a more southerly path,the optimized statistical forecasting model obtains better improvements in MJO prediction.展开更多
We study the thermodynamic properties of the classical one-dimensional generalized nonlinear Klein-Gordon lattice model(n≥2)by using the cluster variation method with linear response theory.The results of this method...We study the thermodynamic properties of the classical one-dimensional generalized nonlinear Klein-Gordon lattice model(n≥2)by using the cluster variation method with linear response theory.The results of this method are exact in the thermodynamic limit.We present the single-site reduced densityρ^((1))(z),averages such as(z^(2)),<|z^(n)|>,and<(z_(1)-z_(2))^(2)>,the specific heat C_(v),and the static correlation functions.We analyze the scaling behavior of these quantities and obtain the exact scaling powers at the low and high temperatures.Using these results,we gauge the accuracy of the projective truncation approximation for theφ^(4)lattice model.展开更多
This work reviews models and methods for determining the dynamic response of pavements to moving vehicle loads in the framework of continuum-based three dimensional models and linear theories.This review emphasizes th...This work reviews models and methods for determining the dynamic response of pavements to moving vehicle loads in the framework of continuum-based three dimensional models and linear theories.This review emphasizes the most representative models and methods of analysis in the existing literature and illustrates all of them by numerical examples.Thus,13 such examples are presented here in some detail.Both flexible and rigid(concrete)pavement models involving simple and elaborate cases with respect to geometry and material behavior are considered.Thus,homogeneous or layered half-spaces with isotropic or cross-anisotropic and elastic,viscoelastic or poroelastic properties are considered.The vehicles are modeled as simple point or distributed loads or discrete spring-mass-dashpot system moving with constant or variable velocity.The dynamic response of the above pavement-vehicle systems is obtained by analytical/numerical or purely numerical methods of solution.Analytical/numerical methods have mainly to do with Fourier transforms or complex Fourier series with respect to both space and time.Purely numerical methods involve the finite element method(FEM)and the boundary element method(BEM)working in time or frequency domain.Critical discussions on the advantages and disadvantages of the various pavement-vehicle models and their methods of analysis are provided and the effects of the main parameters on the pavement response are determined through parametric studies and presented in the examples.Finally,conclusions are provided and suggestions for future research are made.展开更多
Natural soil generally exhibits significant transverse isotropy(TI)due to weathering and sedimentation,meaning that horizontal moduli differ from their vertical counterpart.The TI mechanical model is more appropriate ...Natural soil generally exhibits significant transverse isotropy(TI)due to weathering and sedimentation,meaning that horizontal moduli differ from their vertical counterpart.The TI mechanical model is more appropriate for actual situations.Although soil exhibits material nonlinearity under earthquake excitation,existing research on the TI medium is limited to soil linearity and neglects the nonlinear response of TI sites.A 2D equivalent linear model for a layered TI half-space subjected to seismic waves is derived in the transformed wave number domain using the exact dynamic stiffness matrix of the TI medium.This study introduces a method for determining the effective shear strain of TI sites under oblique wave incidence,and further describes a systematic study on the effects of TI parameters and soil nonlinearity on site responses.Numerical results indicate that seismic responses of the TI medium significantly differ from those of isotropic sites and that the responses are highly dependent on TI parameters,particularly in nonlinear cases,while also being sensitive to incident angle and excitation intensity.Moreover,the differences in peak acceleration and waveform for various TI materials may also be amplified due to the strong nonlinearity.The study provides valuable insights for improving the accuracy of seismic response analysis in engineering applications.展开更多
Stable water isotopes are natural tracers quantifying the contribution of moisture recycling to local precipitation,i.e.,the moisture recycling ratio,but various isotope-based models usually lead to different results,...Stable water isotopes are natural tracers quantifying the contribution of moisture recycling to local precipitation,i.e.,the moisture recycling ratio,but various isotope-based models usually lead to different results,which affects the accuracy of local moisture recycling.In this study,a total of 18 stations from four typical areas in China were selected to compare the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models and to determine local moisture recycling ratio.Among the three vapor sources including advection,transpiration,and surface evaporation,the advection vapor usually played a dominant role,and the contribution of surface evaporation was less than that of transpiration.When the abnormal values were ignored,the arithmetic averages of differences between isotope-based linear and the Bayesian mixing models were 0.9%for transpiration,0.2%for surface evaporation,and–1.1%for advection,respectively,and the medians were 0.5%,0.2%,and–0.8%,respectively.The importance of transpiration was slightly less for most cases when the Bayesian mixing model was applied,and the contribution of advection was relatively larger.The Bayesian mixing model was found to perform better in determining an efficient solution since linear model sometimes resulted in negative contribution ratios.Sensitivity test with two isotope scenarios indicated that the Bayesian model had a relatively low sensitivity to the changes in isotope input,and it was important to accurately estimate the isotopes in precipitation vapor.Generally,the Bayesian mixing model should be recommended instead of a linear model.The findings are useful for understanding the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models under various climate backgrounds.展开更多
In this paper, we define a new class of biased linear estimators of the vector of unknown parameters in the deficient_rank linear model based on the spectral decomposition expression of the best linear minimun bias es...In this paper, we define a new class of biased linear estimators of the vector of unknown parameters in the deficient_rank linear model based on the spectral decomposition expression of the best linear minimun bias estimator. Some important properties are discussed. By appropriate choices of bias parameters, we construct many interested and useful biased linear estimators, which are the extension of ordinary biased linear estimators in the full_rank linear model to the deficient_rank linear model. At last, we give a numerical example in geodetic adjustment.展开更多
Rainfall is an important factor in estimating the event mean concentration （EMC） which is used to quantify the washed-off pollutant concentrations from non-point sources （NPSs）. Pollutant loads could also be calcu...Rainfall is an important factor in estimating the event mean concentration （EMC） which is used to quantify the washed-off pollutant concentrations from non-point sources （NPSs）. Pollutant loads could also be calculated using rainfall, catchment area and runoff coefficient. In this study, runoff quantity and quality data gathered from a 28-month monitoring conducted on the road and parking lot sites in Korea were evaluated using multiple linear regression （MLR） to develop equations for estimating pollutant loads and EMCs as a function of rainfall variables. The results revealed that total event rainfall and average rainfall intensity are possible predictors of pollutant loads. Overall, the models are indicators of the high uncertainties of NPSs; perhaps estimation of EMCs and loads could be accurately obtained by means of water quality sampling or a long term monitoring is needed to gather more data that can be used for the development of estimation models.展开更多
The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature from +00 h out to +45 h in South Korea (38 stations) is performed using the DLM (dynamic linear model) in order to eliminate the systematic error of numerical...The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature from +00 h out to +45 h in South Korea (38 stations) is performed using the DLM (dynamic linear model) in order to eliminate the systematic error of numerical model forecasts. Numerical model forecasts and observations are used as input values of the DLM. According to the comparison of the DLM forecasts to the KFM (Kalman filter model) forecasts with RMSE and bias, the DLM is useful to improve the accuracy of prediction.展开更多
An empirical likelihood approach to estimate the coefficients in linear model with interval censored responses is developed in this paper. By constructing unbiased transformation of interval censored data,an empirical...An empirical likelihood approach to estimate the coefficients in linear model with interval censored responses is developed in this paper. By constructing unbiased transformation of interval censored data,an empirical log-likelihood function with asymptotic X^2 is derived. The confidence regions for the coefficients are constructed. Some simulation results indicate that the method performs better than the normal approximation method in term of coverage accuracies.展开更多
In this paper,the empirical likelihood confidence regions for the regression coefficient in a linear model are constructed under m-dependent errors.It is shown that the blockwise empirical likelihood is a good way to ...In this paper,the empirical likelihood confidence regions for the regression coefficient in a linear model are constructed under m-dependent errors.It is shown that the blockwise empirical likelihood is a good way to deal with dependent samples.展开更多
The inflection point is an important feature of sigmoidal height-diameter(H-D)models.It is often cited as one of the properties favoring sigmoidal model forms.However,there are very few studies analyzing the inflectio...The inflection point is an important feature of sigmoidal height-diameter(H-D)models.It is often cited as one of the properties favoring sigmoidal model forms.However,there are very few studies analyzing the inflection points of H-D models.The goals of this study were to theoretically and empirically examine the behaviors of inflection points of six common H-D models with a regional dataset.The six models were the Wykoff(WYK),Schumacher(SCH),Curtis(CUR),HossfeldⅣ(HOS),von Bertalanffy-Richards(VBR),and Gompertz(GPZ)models.The models were first fitted in their base forms with tree species as random effects and were then expanded to include functional traits and spatial distribution.The distributions of the estimated inflection points were similar between the two-parameter models WYK,SCH,and CUR,but were different between the threeparameter models HOS,VBR,and GPZ.GPZ produced some of the largest inflection points.HOS and VBR produced concave H-D curves without inflection points for 12.7%and 39.7%of the tree species.Evergreen species or decreasing shade tolerance resulted in larger inflection points.The trends in the estimated inflection points of HOS and VBR were entirely opposite across the landscape.Furthermore,HOS could produce concave H-D curves for portions of the landscape.Based on the studied behaviors,the choice between two-parameter models may not matter.We recommend comparing seve ral three-parameter model forms for consistency in estimated inflection points before deciding on one.Believing sigmoidal models to have inflection points does not necessarily mean that they will produce fitted curves with one.Our study highlights the need to integrate analysis of inflection points into modeling H-D relationships.展开更多
Consider the semiparametric varying-coefficient heteroscedastic partially linear model Yi = X^T i β＋ Z^T iα（Ti） ＋ σiei, 1 ≤ i≤ n, where σ ^2i= f（Ui）, β is a p × 1 column vector of unknown parameter, ...Consider the semiparametric varying-coefficient heteroscedastic partially linear model Yi = X^T i β＋ Z^T iα（Ti） ＋ σiei, 1 ≤ i≤ n, where σ ^2i= f（Ui）, β is a p × 1 column vector of unknown parameter, （Xi, Zi, Ti, Ui） are random design q-dimensional vector of unknown functions, el points, Yi are the response variables, α（-） is a are random errors. For both cases that f（.） is known and unknown, we propose the empirical log-likelihood ratio statistics for the parameter f（.）. For each case, a nonparametric version of Wilks＇ theorem is derived. The results are then used to construct confidence regions of the parameter. Simulation studies are carried out to assess the performance of the empirical likelihood method.展开更多
Ecoregion-based height-diameter models were developed in the present study for Scots pine(Pinus sylves-tris L.)stands in Turkiye and included several ecological factors derived from a pre-existing ecoregional classifi...Ecoregion-based height-diameter models were developed in the present study for Scots pine(Pinus sylves-tris L.)stands in Turkiye and included several ecological factors derived from a pre-existing ecoregional classification system.The data were obtained from 2831 sample trees in 292 sample plots.Ten generalized height–diameter models were developed,and the best model(HD10)was selected according to statistical criteria.Then,nonlinear mixed-effects modeling was applied to the best model.The R2 for the generalized height‒diameter model(Richards function)modified by Sharma and Parton is 0.951,and the final model included number of trees,dominant height,and diameter at breast height,with a random parameter associated with each ecoregion attached to the inverse of the mean basal area.The full model predictions using the nonlinear mixed-effects model and the reduced model(HD10)predictions were compared using the nonlinear sum of extra squares test,which revealed significant differences between ecore-gions;ecoregion-based height–diameter models were thus found to be suitable to use.In addition,using these models in appropriate ecoregions was very important for achieving reliable predictions with low prediction errors.展开更多
In this article, the problem of estimating the covariance matrix in general linear mixed models is considered. Two new classes of estimators obtained by shrinking the eigenvalues towards the origin and the arithmetic ...In this article, the problem of estimating the covariance matrix in general linear mixed models is considered. Two new classes of estimators obtained by shrinking the eigenvalues towards the origin and the arithmetic mean, respectively, are proposed. It is shown that these new estimators dominate the unbiased estimator under the squared error loss function. Finally, some simulation results to compare the performance of the proposed estimators with that of the unbiased estimator are reported. The simulation results indicate that these new shrinkage estimators provide a substantial improvement in risk under most situations.展开更多
Stormwater runoff has been identified as a source of pollution for the environment, especially for receiving waters. In order to quantify and manage the impacts of stormwater runoff on the environment, predictive mode...Stormwater runoff has been identified as a source of pollution for the environment, especially for receiving waters. In order to quantify and manage the impacts of stormwater runoff on the environment, predictive models and mathematical models have been developed. Predictive tools such as regression models have been widely used to predict stormwater discharge characteristics. Storm event characteristics, such as antecedent dry days （ADD）, have been related to response variables, such as pollutant loads and concentrations. However it has been a controversial issue among many studies to consider ADD as an important variable in predicting stormwater discharge characteristics. In this study, we examined the accuracy of general linear regression models in predicting discharge characteristics of roadway runoff. A total of 17 storm events were monitored in two highway segments, located in Gwangju, Korea. Data from the monitoring were used to calibrate United States Environmental Protection Agency＇s Storm Water Management Model （SWMM）. The calibrated SWMM was simulated for 55 storm events, and the results of total suspended solid （TSS） discharge loads and event mean concentrations （EMC） were extracted. From these data, linear regression models were developed. R2 and p-values of the regression of ADD for both TSS loads and EMCs were investigated. Results showed that pollutant loads were better predicted than pollutant EMC in the multiple regression models. Regression may not provide the true effect of site-specific characteristics, due to uncertainty in the data.展开更多
文摘Mixed-effects models,also called random-effects models,are a regression type of analysis which enables the analyst to not only describe the trend over time within each subject,but also to describe the variation among different subjects.Nonlinear mixed-effects models provide a powerful and flexible tool for handling the unbalanced count data.In this paper,nonlinear mixed-effects models are used to analyze the failure data from a repairable system with multiple copies.By using this type of models,statistical inferences about the population and all copies can be made when accounting for copy-to-copy variance.Results of fitting nonlinear mixed-effects models to nine failure-data sets show that the nonlinear mixed-effects models provide a useful tool for analyzing the failure data from multi-copy repairable systems.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11301514)partially supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.11271355 and 70625004)National Bureau of Statistics of China(Grant No.2012LZ012)
文摘The linear mixed-effects model （LMM） is a very useful tool for analyzing cluster data. In practice, however, the exact values of the variables are often difficult to observe. In this paper, we consider the LMM with measurement errors in the covariates. The empirical BLUP estimator of the linear combination of the fixed and random effects and its approximate conditional MSE are derived. The application to the estimation of small area is provided. Simulation study shows good performance of the proposed estimators.
基金The authors would like to thank the Thirteenth Five-year Plan Pioneering project of High Technology Plan of the National Department of Technology (No. 2017YFC0504101)the National Natural Science Foundations of China (Nos. 31470641, 31300534 and 31570628) for the financial support of this study.
文摘Nonlinear mixed-eirects (NLME) modek have become popular in various disciplines over the past several decades.However,the existing methods for parameter estimation imple-mented in standard statistical packages such as SAS and R/S-Plus are generally limited k) single-or multi-level NLME models that only allow nested random effects and are unable to cope with crossed random effects within the framework of NLME modeling.In t his study,wc propose a general formulation of NLME models that can accommodate both nested and crassed random effects,and then develop a computational algorit hm for parameter estimation based on normal assumptions.The maximum likelihood estimation is carried out using the first-order conditional expansion (FOCE) for NLME model linearization and sequential quadratic programming (SCJP) for computational optimization while ensuring positive-definiteness of the estimated variance-covariance matrices of both random effects and error terms.The FOCE-SQP algorithm is evaluated using the height and diameter data measured on trees from Korean larch (L.olgeiisis var,Chang-paienA.b) experimental plots aa well as simulation studies.We show that the FOCE-SQP method converges fast with high accuracy.Applications of the general formulation of NLME models are illustrated with an analysis of the Korean larch data.
基金supported by the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars(52225403)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42077244).
文摘The study of the mechanical property and damage state of coal materials under compression is a fundamental area of research in underground mining engineering.Drawing upon the compaction effect and linear energy dissipation(LED)law,a novel compressive damage constitutive model for brittle coal is proposed.Utilizing the energy-defined damage method for mate-rials,the LED law is innovatively introduced to accurately characterize the energy dissipation during the loading process,and a novel formula for characterizing the damage variable of brittle coal is proposed.On this basis,considering that the constitutive model based on the hypothesis of strain equivalence is incapable of accurately describing the compaction effect exhibited by coal material during the compression process,a correction coefficient is proposed and apply it in the novel damage constitutive model.The established conventional monotone loading and single-cyclic loading-unloading uniaxial compression damage constitutive models have been validated using experimental data from cylindrical and cuboid coal specimens.In addition,compared with the constitutive model obtained via the traditional energy calculation method based on the hypothesis that the unloading curve is a straight line,the constitutive model employing LED law can describe the stress-strain state of brittle coal more precisely.This approach introduces a new perspective and enhances the convenience for constructing the constitutive model based on energy theory.
基金the Project of the Key Open Laboratory of Atmospheric Detection,China Meteorological Administration(2023KLAS02M)the Second Batch of Science and Technology Project of China Meteorological Administration("Jiebangguashuai"):the Research and Development of Short-term and Near-term Warning Products for Severe Convective Weather in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region(CMAJBGS202307).
文摘Firstly,based on the data of air quality and the meteorological data in Baoding City from 2017 to 2021,the correlations of meteorological elements and pollutants with O_(3)concentration were explored to determine the forecast factors of forecast models.Secondly,the O_(3)-8h concentration in Baoding City in 2021 was predicted based on the constructed models of multiple linear regression(MLR),backward propagation neural network(BPNN),and auto regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA),and the predicted values were compared with the observed values to test their prediction effects.The results show that overall,the MLR,BPNN and ARIMA models were able to forecast the changing trend of O_(3)-8h concentration in Baoding in 2021,but the BPNN model gave better forecast results than the ARIMA and MLR models,especially for the prediction of the high values of O_(3)-8h concentration,and the correlation coefficients between the predicted values and the observed values were all higher than 0.9 during June-September.The mean error(ME),mean absolute error(MAE),and root mean square error(RMSE)of the predicted values and the observed values of daily O_(3)-8h concentration based on the BPNN model were 0.45,19.11 and 24.41μg/m 3,respectively,which were significantly better than those of the MLR and ARIMA models.The prediction effects of the MLR,BPNN and ARIMA models were the best at the pollution level,followed by the excellent level,and it was the worst at the good level.In comparison,the prediction effect of BPNN model was better than that of the MLR and ARIMA models as a whole,especially for the pollution and excellent levels.The TS scores of the BPNN model were all above 66%,and the PC values were above 86%.The BPNN model can forecast the changing trend of O_(3)concentration more accurately,and has a good practical application value,but at the same time,the predicted high values of O_(3)concentration should be appropriately increased according to error characteristics of the model.
基金supported by the National Key Program for Developing Basic Science(Nos.2022YFF0801702 and 2022YFE0106600)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42175060 and 42175021)the Jiangsu Province Science Foundation(No.BK20250200302).
文摘The Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)is a key atmospheric component connecting global weather and climate.It func-tions as a primary source for subseasonal forecasts.Previous studies have highlighted the vital impact of oceanic processes on MJO propagation.However,few existing MJO prediction approaches adequately consider these factors.This study determines the critical region for the oceanic processes affecting MJO propagation by utilizing 22-year Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data.By intro-ducing surface and subsurface oceanic temperature within this critical region into a lagged multiple linear regression model,the MJO forecasting skill is considerably optimized.This optimization leads to a 12 h enhancement in the forecasting skill of the first principal component and efficiently decreases prediction errors for the total predictions.Further analysis suggests that,during the years in which MJO events propagate across the Maritime Continent over a more southerly path,the optimized statistical forecasting model obtains better improvements in MJO prediction.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11974420).
文摘We study the thermodynamic properties of the classical one-dimensional generalized nonlinear Klein-Gordon lattice model(n≥2)by using the cluster variation method with linear response theory.The results of this method are exact in the thermodynamic limit.We present the single-site reduced densityρ^((1))(z),averages such as(z^(2)),<|z^(n)|>,and<(z_(1)-z_(2))^(2)>,the specific heat C_(v),and the static correlation functions.We analyze the scaling behavior of these quantities and obtain the exact scaling powers at the low and high temperatures.Using these results,we gauge the accuracy of the projective truncation approximation for theφ^(4)lattice model.
文摘This work reviews models and methods for determining the dynamic response of pavements to moving vehicle loads in the framework of continuum-based three dimensional models and linear theories.This review emphasizes the most representative models and methods of analysis in the existing literature and illustrates all of them by numerical examples.Thus,13 such examples are presented here in some detail.Both flexible and rigid(concrete)pavement models involving simple and elaborate cases with respect to geometry and material behavior are considered.Thus,homogeneous or layered half-spaces with isotropic or cross-anisotropic and elastic,viscoelastic or poroelastic properties are considered.The vehicles are modeled as simple point or distributed loads or discrete spring-mass-dashpot system moving with constant or variable velocity.The dynamic response of the above pavement-vehicle systems is obtained by analytical/numerical or purely numerical methods of solution.Analytical/numerical methods have mainly to do with Fourier transforms or complex Fourier series with respect to both space and time.Purely numerical methods involve the finite element method(FEM)and the boundary element method(BEM)working in time or frequency domain.Critical discussions on the advantages and disadvantages of the various pavement-vehicle models and their methods of analysis are provided and the effects of the main parameters on the pavement response are determined through parametric studies and presented in the examples.Finally,conclusions are provided and suggestions for future research are made.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.U2139208。
文摘Natural soil generally exhibits significant transverse isotropy(TI)due to weathering and sedimentation,meaning that horizontal moduli differ from their vertical counterpart.The TI mechanical model is more appropriate for actual situations.Although soil exhibits material nonlinearity under earthquake excitation,existing research on the TI medium is limited to soil linearity and neglects the nonlinear response of TI sites.A 2D equivalent linear model for a layered TI half-space subjected to seismic waves is derived in the transformed wave number domain using the exact dynamic stiffness matrix of the TI medium.This study introduces a method for determining the effective shear strain of TI sites under oblique wave incidence,and further describes a systematic study on the effects of TI parameters and soil nonlinearity on site responses.Numerical results indicate that seismic responses of the TI medium significantly differ from those of isotropic sites and that the responses are highly dependent on TI parameters,particularly in nonlinear cases,while also being sensitive to incident angle and excitation intensity.Moreover,the differences in peak acceleration and waveform for various TI materials may also be amplified due to the strong nonlinearity.The study provides valuable insights for improving the accuracy of seismic response analysis in engineering applications.
基金This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42261008,41971034)the Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province,China(22JR5RA074).
文摘Stable water isotopes are natural tracers quantifying the contribution of moisture recycling to local precipitation,i.e.,the moisture recycling ratio,but various isotope-based models usually lead to different results,which affects the accuracy of local moisture recycling.In this study,a total of 18 stations from four typical areas in China were selected to compare the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models and to determine local moisture recycling ratio.Among the three vapor sources including advection,transpiration,and surface evaporation,the advection vapor usually played a dominant role,and the contribution of surface evaporation was less than that of transpiration.When the abnormal values were ignored,the arithmetic averages of differences between isotope-based linear and the Bayesian mixing models were 0.9%for transpiration,0.2%for surface evaporation,and–1.1%for advection,respectively,and the medians were 0.5%,0.2%,and–0.8%,respectively.The importance of transpiration was slightly less for most cases when the Bayesian mixing model was applied,and the contribution of advection was relatively larger.The Bayesian mixing model was found to perform better in determining an efficient solution since linear model sometimes resulted in negative contribution ratios.Sensitivity test with two isotope scenarios indicated that the Bayesian model had a relatively low sensitivity to the changes in isotope input,and it was important to accurately estimate the isotopes in precipitation vapor.Generally,the Bayesian mixing model should be recommended instead of a linear model.The findings are useful for understanding the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models under various climate backgrounds.
文摘In this paper, we define a new class of biased linear estimators of the vector of unknown parameters in the deficient_rank linear model based on the spectral decomposition expression of the best linear minimun bias estimator. Some important properties are discussed. By appropriate choices of bias parameters, we construct many interested and useful biased linear estimators, which are the extension of ordinary biased linear estimators in the full_rank linear model to the deficient_rank linear model. At last, we give a numerical example in geodetic adjustment.
基金provided by the Korean Ministry of Environment and Eco Star Project
文摘Rainfall is an important factor in estimating the event mean concentration （EMC） which is used to quantify the washed-off pollutant concentrations from non-point sources （NPSs）. Pollutant loads could also be calculated using rainfall, catchment area and runoff coefficient. In this study, runoff quantity and quality data gathered from a 28-month monitoring conducted on the road and parking lot sites in Korea were evaluated using multiple linear regression （MLR） to develop equations for estimating pollutant loads and EMCs as a function of rainfall variables. The results revealed that total event rainfall and average rainfall intensity are possible predictors of pollutant loads. Overall, the models are indicators of the high uncertainties of NPSs; perhaps estimation of EMCs and loads could be accurately obtained by means of water quality sampling or a long term monitoring is needed to gather more data that can be used for the development of estimation models.
文摘The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature from +00 h out to +45 h in South Korea (38 stations) is performed using the DLM (dynamic linear model) in order to eliminate the systematic error of numerical model forecasts. Numerical model forecasts and observations are used as input values of the DLM. According to the comparison of the DLM forecasts to the KFM (Kalman filter model) forecasts with RMSE and bias, the DLM is useful to improve the accuracy of prediction.
文摘An empirical likelihood approach to estimate the coefficients in linear model with interval censored responses is developed in this paper. By constructing unbiased transformation of interval censored data,an empirical log-likelihood function with asymptotic X^2 is derived. The confidence regions for the coefficients are constructed. Some simulation results indicate that the method performs better than the normal approximation method in term of coverage accuracies.
文摘In this paper,the empirical likelihood confidence regions for the regression coefficient in a linear model are constructed under m-dependent errors.It is shown that the blockwise empirical likelihood is a good way to deal with dependent samples.
文摘The inflection point is an important feature of sigmoidal height-diameter(H-D)models.It is often cited as one of the properties favoring sigmoidal model forms.However,there are very few studies analyzing the inflection points of H-D models.The goals of this study were to theoretically and empirically examine the behaviors of inflection points of six common H-D models with a regional dataset.The six models were the Wykoff(WYK),Schumacher(SCH),Curtis(CUR),HossfeldⅣ(HOS),von Bertalanffy-Richards(VBR),and Gompertz(GPZ)models.The models were first fitted in their base forms with tree species as random effects and were then expanded to include functional traits and spatial distribution.The distributions of the estimated inflection points were similar between the two-parameter models WYK,SCH,and CUR,but were different between the threeparameter models HOS,VBR,and GPZ.GPZ produced some of the largest inflection points.HOS and VBR produced concave H-D curves without inflection points for 12.7%and 39.7%of the tree species.Evergreen species or decreasing shade tolerance resulted in larger inflection points.The trends in the estimated inflection points of HOS and VBR were entirely opposite across the landscape.Furthermore,HOS could produce concave H-D curves for portions of the landscape.Based on the studied behaviors,the choice between two-parameter models may not matter.We recommend comparing seve ral three-parameter model forms for consistency in estimated inflection points before deciding on one.Believing sigmoidal models to have inflection points does not necessarily mean that they will produce fitted curves with one.Our study highlights the need to integrate analysis of inflection points into modeling H-D relationships.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 71171003)Natural Science Research Project of Anhui Provincial Colleges (Grant No. KJ2011A032)+3 种基金Anhui Polytechnic University Foundation for Recruiting Talent (Grant Nos. 2011YQQ0042009YQQ005)Young Teachers Science Research Foundation of Anhui Polytechnic University (Grant No. 2009YQ035)Anhui Provincial Natural Science Foundation
文摘Consider the semiparametric varying-coefficient heteroscedastic partially linear model Yi = X^T i β＋ Z^T iα（Ti） ＋ σiei, 1 ≤ i≤ n, where σ ^2i= f（Ui）, β is a p × 1 column vector of unknown parameter, （Xi, Zi, Ti, Ui） are random design q-dimensional vector of unknown functions, el points, Yi are the response variables, α（-） is a are random errors. For both cases that f（.） is known and unknown, we propose the empirical log-likelihood ratio statistics for the parameter f（.）. For each case, a nonparametric version of Wilks＇ theorem is derived. The results are then used to construct confidence regions of the parameter. Simulation studies are carried out to assess the performance of the empirical likelihood method.
基金supported by Scientific Research Projects Management Coordinator of Kastamonu University,under grant number KÜ-BAP01/2019-41.
文摘Ecoregion-based height-diameter models were developed in the present study for Scots pine(Pinus sylves-tris L.)stands in Turkiye and included several ecological factors derived from a pre-existing ecoregional classification system.The data were obtained from 2831 sample trees in 292 sample plots.Ten generalized height–diameter models were developed,and the best model(HD10)was selected according to statistical criteria.Then,nonlinear mixed-effects modeling was applied to the best model.The R2 for the generalized height‒diameter model(Richards function)modified by Sharma and Parton is 0.951,and the final model included number of trees,dominant height,and diameter at breast height,with a random parameter associated with each ecoregion attached to the inverse of the mean basal area.The full model predictions using the nonlinear mixed-effects model and the reduced model(HD10)predictions were compared using the nonlinear sum of extra squares test,which revealed significant differences between ecore-gions;ecoregion-based height–diameter models were thus found to be suitable to use.In addition,using these models in appropriate ecoregions was very important for achieving reliable predictions with low prediction errors.
基金supported by the Funding Project for Academic Human Resources Development in Institutions of Higher Learning Under the Jurisdiction of Beijing Municipality (0506011200702)National Natural Science Foundation of China+2 种基金Tian Yuan Special Foundation (10926059)Foundation of Zhejiang Educational Committee (Y200803920)Scientific Research Foundation of Hangzhou Dianzi University(KYS025608094)
文摘In this article, the problem of estimating the covariance matrix in general linear mixed models is considered. Two new classes of estimators obtained by shrinking the eigenvalues towards the origin and the arithmetic mean, respectively, are proposed. It is shown that these new estimators dominate the unbiased estimator under the squared error loss function. Finally, some simulation results to compare the performance of the proposed estimators with that of the unbiased estimator are reported. The simulation results indicate that these new shrinkage estimators provide a substantial improvement in risk under most situations.
基金supported by the Korea Ministry of Environment, as "The Eco-innovation Project" (No. 413111-003)
文摘Stormwater runoff has been identified as a source of pollution for the environment, especially for receiving waters. In order to quantify and manage the impacts of stormwater runoff on the environment, predictive models and mathematical models have been developed. Predictive tools such as regression models have been widely used to predict stormwater discharge characteristics. Storm event characteristics, such as antecedent dry days （ADD）, have been related to response variables, such as pollutant loads and concentrations. However it has been a controversial issue among many studies to consider ADD as an important variable in predicting stormwater discharge characteristics. In this study, we examined the accuracy of general linear regression models in predicting discharge characteristics of roadway runoff. A total of 17 storm events were monitored in two highway segments, located in Gwangju, Korea. Data from the monitoring were used to calibrate United States Environmental Protection Agency＇s Storm Water Management Model （SWMM）. The calibrated SWMM was simulated for 55 storm events, and the results of total suspended solid （TSS） discharge loads and event mean concentrations （EMC） were extracted. From these data, linear regression models were developed. R2 and p-values of the regression of ADD for both TSS loads and EMCs were investigated. Results showed that pollutant loads were better predicted than pollutant EMC in the multiple regression models. Regression may not provide the true effect of site-specific characteristics, due to uncertainty in the data.
