The methods of network attacks have become increasingly sophisticated,rendering traditional cybersecurity defense mechanisms insufficient to address novel and complex threats effectively.In recent years,artificial int...The methods of network attacks have become increasingly sophisticated,rendering traditional cybersecurity defense mechanisms insufficient to address novel and complex threats effectively.In recent years,artificial intelligence has achieved significant progress in the field of network security.However,many challenges and issues remain,particularly regarding the interpretability of deep learning and ensemble learning algorithms.To address the challenge of enhancing the interpretability of network attack prediction models,this paper proposes a method that combines Light Gradient Boosting Machine(LGBM)and SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP).LGBM is employed to model anomalous fluctuations in various network indicators,enabling the rapid and accurate identification and prediction of potential network attack types,thereby facilitating the implementation of timely defense measures,the model achieved an accuracy of 0.977,precision of 0.985,recall of 0.975,and an F1 score of 0.979,demonstrating better performance compared to other models in the domain of network attack prediction.SHAP is utilized to analyze the black-box decision-making process of the model,providing interpretability by quantifying the contribution of each feature to the prediction results and elucidating the relationships between features.The experimental results demonstrate that the network attack predictionmodel based on LGBM exhibits superior accuracy and outstanding predictive capabilities.Moreover,the SHAP-based interpretability analysis significantly improves the model’s transparency and interpretability.展开更多
The first 2^(+)excited states of the nucleus directly reflect the interaction between the shell structure and the nucleus,providing insights into the validity of the shell model and nuclear structure characteristics.A...The first 2^(+)excited states of the nucleus directly reflect the interaction between the shell structure and the nucleus,providing insights into the validity of the shell model and nuclear structure characteristics.Although the features of the first 2^(+)excited states can be measured for stable nuclei and calculated using nuclear models,significant uncertainty remains.This study employs a machine learning model based on a light gradient boosting machine(LightGBM)to investigate the first 2^(+)excited states.Specifically,the training of the LightGBM algorithm and the prediction of the first 2^(+)properties of 642 nuclei are presented.Furthermore,detailed comparisons of the LightGBM predictions were performed with available experimental data,shell model calculations,and Bayesian neural network predictions.The results revealed that the average difference between the LightGBM predictions and the experimental data was 18 times smaller than that obtained by the shell model and only 70%of the BNN prediction results.Considering Mg,Ca,Kr,Sm,and Pb isotopes as examples,it was also observed that LightGBM can effectively reproduce the magic number mutation caused by shell effects,with the energy being as low as 0.04 MeV due to shape coexistence.Therefore,we believe that leveraging LightGBM-based machine learning can profoundly enhance our insights into nuclear structures and provide new avenues for nuclear physics research.展开更多
Addressing classification and prediction challenges, tree ensemble models have gained significant importance. Boosting ensemble techniques are commonly employed for forecasting Type-II diabetes mellitus. Light Gradien...Addressing classification and prediction challenges, tree ensemble models have gained significant importance. Boosting ensemble techniques are commonly employed for forecasting Type-II diabetes mellitus. Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) is a widely used algorithm known for its leaf growth strategy, loss reduction, and enhanced training precision. However, LightGBM is prone to overfitting. In contrast, CatBoost utilizes balanced base predictors known as decision tables, which mitigate overfitting risks and significantly improve testing time efficiency. CatBoost’s algorithm structure counteracts gradient boosting biases and incorporates an overfitting detector to stop training early. This study focuses on developing a hybrid model that combines LightGBM and CatBoost to minimize overfitting and improve accuracy by reducing variance. For the purpose of finding the best hyperparameters to use with the underlying learners, the Bayesian hyperparameter optimization method is used. By fine-tuning the regularization parameter values, the hybrid model effectively reduces variance (overfitting). Comparative evaluation against LightGBM, CatBoost, XGBoost, Decision Tree, Random Forest, AdaBoost, and GBM algorithms demonstrates that the hybrid model has the best F1-score (99.37%), recall (99.25%), and accuracy (99.37%). Consequently, the proposed framework holds promise for early diabetes prediction in the healthcare industry and exhibits potential applicability to other datasets sharing similarities with diabetes.展开更多
In this paper,an advanced and optimized Light Gradient Boosting Machine(LGBM)technique is proposed to identify the intrusive activities in the Internet of Things(IoT)network.The followings are the major contributions:...In this paper,an advanced and optimized Light Gradient Boosting Machine(LGBM)technique is proposed to identify the intrusive activities in the Internet of Things(IoT)network.The followings are the major contributions:i)An optimized LGBM model has been developed for the identification of malicious IoT activities in the IoT network;ii)An efficient evolutionary optimization approach has been adopted for finding the optimal set of hyper-parameters of LGBM for the projected problem.Here,a Genetic Algorithm(GA)with k-way tournament selection and uniform crossover operation is used for efficient exploration of hyper-parameter search space;iii)Finally,the performance of the proposed model is evaluated using state-of-the-art ensemble learning and machine learning-based model to achieve overall generalized performance and efficiency.Simulation outcomes reveal that the proposed approach is superior to other considered methods and proves to be a robust approach to intrusion detection in an IoT environment.展开更多
Coal rock mass instability fracture may result in serious hazards to underground coal mining.Acoustic emissions(AE)stimulated by internal structure fracture should carry lots of favorable information about health cond...Coal rock mass instability fracture may result in serious hazards to underground coal mining.Acoustic emissions(AE)stimulated by internal structure fracture should carry lots of favorable information about health condition of rock mass.AE as a sensitive non-destructive test method is gradually utilized to detect anomaly conditions of coal rock.This paper proposes an improved multi-resolution feature to extract AE waveform at different frequency resolutions using Coilflet Wavelet Transform method(CWT).It is further adopt an efficient Light Gradient Boosting Machine(LightGBM)by several cascaded sub weak classifier models to merge AE features at different views of frequency for coal rock anomaly damage recognition.The results denote that the proposed method achieves excellent recognition performance on anomaly damage levels of coal rock.It is an effective method to detect the critical stability further to predict the rock mass bursting in time.展开更多
Traditional mining in open pit mines often uses explosives,leading to environmental hazards,with flyrock being a critical issue.In detail,excess flying rock beyond the designated explosion area was identified as the p...Traditional mining in open pit mines often uses explosives,leading to environmental hazards,with flyrock being a critical issue.In detail,excess flying rock beyond the designated explosion area was identified as the primary cause of fatal and non-fatal blasting hazards in open pit mining.Therefore,the accurate and reliable prediction of flyrock becomes crucial for effectively managing and mitigating associated problems.This study used the Light Gradient Boosting Machine(LightGBM)model to predict flyrock in a lead-zinc mine,with promising results.To improve its accuracy,multi-verse optimizer(MVO)and ant lion optimizer(ALO)metaheuristic algorithms were introduced.Results showed MVO-LightGBM outperformed conventional LightGBM.Additionally,decision tree(DT),support vector machine(SVM),and classification and regression tree(CART)models were trained and compared with MVO-LightGBM.The MVO-LightGBM model excelled over DT,SVM,and CART.This study highlights MVO-LightGBM's effectiveness and potential for broader applications.Furthermore,a multiple parametric sensitivity analysis(MPSA)algorithm was employed to specify the sensitivity of parameters.MPSA results indicated that the highest and lowest sensitivities are relevant to blasted rock per hole and spacing with theγ=1752.12 andγ=49.52,respectively.展开更多
Blasting is well-known as an effective method for fragmenting or moving rock in open-pit mines.To evaluate the quality of blasting,the size of rock distribution is used as a critical criterion in blasting operations.A...Blasting is well-known as an effective method for fragmenting or moving rock in open-pit mines.To evaluate the quality of blasting,the size of rock distribution is used as a critical criterion in blasting operations.A high percentage of oversized rocks generated by blasting operations can lead to economic and environmental damage.Therefore,this study proposed four novel intelligent models to predict the size of rock distribution in mine blasting in order to optimize blasting parameters,as well as the efficiency of blasting operation in open mines.Accordingly,a nature-inspired algorithm(i.e.,firefly algorithm-FFA)and different machine learning algorithms(i.e.,gradient boosting machine(GBM),support vector machine(SVM),Gaussian process(GP),and artificial neural network(ANN))were combined for this aim,abbreviated as FFA-GBM,FFA-SVM,FFA-GP,and FFA-ANN,respectively.Subsequently,predicted results from the abovementioned models were compared with each other using three statistical indicators(e.g.,mean absolute error,root-mean-squared error,and correlation coefficient)and color intensity method.For developing and simulating the size of rock in blasting operations,136 blasting events with their images were collected and analyzed by the Split-Desktop software.In which,111 events were randomly selected for the development and optimization of the models.Subsequently,the remaining 25 blasting events were applied to confirm the accuracy of the proposed models.Herein,blast design parameters were regarded as input variables to predict the size of rock in blasting operations.Finally,the obtained results revealed that the FFA is a robust optimization algorithm for estimating rock fragmentation in bench blasting.Among the models developed in this study,FFA-GBM provided the highest accuracy in predicting the size of fragmented rocks.The other techniques(i.e.,FFA-SVM,FFA-GP,and FFA-ANN)yielded lower computational stability and efficiency.Hence,the FFA-GBM model can be used as a powerful and precise soft computing tool that can be applied to practical engineering cases aiming to improve the quality of blasting and rock fragmentation.展开更多
BACKGROUND:The problem of prolonged emergency department length of stay(EDLOS) is becoming increasingly crucial.This study aims to develop a machine learning(ML) model to predict EDLOS,with EDLOS as the outcome variab...BACKGROUND:The problem of prolonged emergency department length of stay(EDLOS) is becoming increasingly crucial.This study aims to develop a machine learning(ML) model to predict EDLOS,with EDLOS as the outcome variable and demographic characteristics,triage level,and medical resource utilization as predictive factors.METHODS:A retrospective analysis was performed on the patients who visited the emergency department of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University from March 2019to September 2021,and a total of 321,012 cases were identified.According to the inclusion and exclusion criteria,187,028 cases were finally included in the analysis.ML analysis was performed using R-squared(R^(2)),and the predictive factors and the EDLOS were used as independent variables and dependent variables,respectively,to establish models.The performance evaluation of the ML models was conducted through the utilization of the mean absolute error(MAE),root mean square error(RMSE),and R^(2),enabling an objective comparative analysis.RESULTS:In the comparative analysis of the six ML models,light gradient boosting machine(LightGBM) model demonstrated the lowest MAE(443.519) and RMSE(826.783),and the highest R^(2) value(0.48),indicating better model fit and predictive performance.Among the top 10 predictive factors associated with EDLOS according to the LightGBM model,the emergency waiting time,age,and emergency arrival time had the most significant impact on the EDLOS.CONCLUSION:The LightGBM model suggests that the emergency waiting time,age,and emergency arrival time may be used to predict the EDLOS.展开更多
Global climate change and sea level rise have led to increased losses from flooding.Accurate prediction of floods is essential to mitigating flood losses in coastal cities.Physically based models cannot satisfy the de...Global climate change and sea level rise have led to increased losses from flooding.Accurate prediction of floods is essential to mitigating flood losses in coastal cities.Physically based models cannot satisfy the demand for real-time prediction for urban flooding due to their computational complexity.In this study,we proposed a hybrid modeling approach for rapid prediction of urban floods,coupling the physically based model with the light gradient boosting machine(LightGBM)model.A hydrological–hydraulic model was used to provide sufficient data for the LightGBM model based on the personal computer storm water management model(PCSWMM).The variables related to rainfall,tide level,and the location of flood points were used as the input for the LightGBM model.To improve the prediction accuracy,the hyperparameters of the LightGBM model are optimized by grid search algorithm and K-fold cross-validation.Taking Haidian Island,Hainan Province,China as a case study,the optimum values of the learning rate,number of estimators,and number of leaves of the LightGBM model are 0.11,450,and 12,respectively.The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient(NSE)of the LightGBM model on the test set is 0.9896,indicating that the LightGBM model has reliable predictions and outperforms random forest(RF),extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost),and k-nearest neighbor(KNN).From the LightGBM model,the variables related to tide level were analyzed as the dominant variables for predicting the inundation depth based on the Gini index in the study area.The proposed LightGBM model provides a scientific reference for flood control in coastal cities considering its superior performance and computational efficiency.展开更多
The compression modulus(Es)is one of the most significant soil parameters that affects the compressive deformation of geotechnical systems,such as foundations.However,it is difficult and sometime costly to obtain this...The compression modulus(Es)is one of the most significant soil parameters that affects the compressive deformation of geotechnical systems,such as foundations.However,it is difficult and sometime costly to obtain this parameter in engineering practice.In this study,we aimed to develop a non-parametric ensemble artificial intelligence(AI)approach to calculate the Es of soft clay in contrast to the traditional regression models proposed in previous studies.A gradient boosted regression tree(GBRT)algorithm was used to discern the non-linear pattern between input variables and the target response,while a genetic algorithm(GA)was adopted for tuning the GBRT model's hyper-parameters.The model was tested through 10-fold cross validation.A dataset of 221 samples from 65 engineering survey reports from Shanghai infrastructure projects was constructed to evaluate the accuracy of the new model5 s predictions.The mean squared error and correlation coefficient of the optimum GBRT model applied to the testing set were 0.13 and 0.91,respectively,indicating that the proposed machine learning(ML)model has great potential to improve the prediction of Es for soft clay.A comparison of the performance of empirical formulas and the proposed ML method for predicting foundation settlement indicated the rationality of the proposed ML model and its applicability to the compressive deformation of geotechnical systems.This model,however,cannot be directly applied to the prediction of Es in other sites due to its site specificity.This problem can be solved by retraining the model using local data.This study provides a useful reference for future multi-parameter prediction of soil behavior.展开更多
Accurate prediction of molten steel temperature in the ladle furnace(LF)refining process has an important influence on the quality of molten steel and the control of steelmaking cost.Extensive research on establishing...Accurate prediction of molten steel temperature in the ladle furnace(LF)refining process has an important influence on the quality of molten steel and the control of steelmaking cost.Extensive research on establishing models to predict molten steel temperature has been conducted.However,most researchers focus solely on improving the accuracy of the model,neglecting its explainability.The present study aims to develop a high-precision and explainable model with improved reliability and transparency.The eXtreme gradient boosting(XGBoost)and light gradient boosting machine(LGBM)were utilized,along with bayesian optimization and grey wolf optimiz-ation(GWO),to establish the prediction model.Different performance evaluation metrics and graphical representations were applied to compare the optimal XGBoost and LGBM models obtained through varying hyperparameter optimization methods with the other models.The findings indicated that the GWO-LGBM model outperformed other methods in predicting molten steel temperature,with a high pre-diction accuracy of 89.35%within the error range of±5°C.The model’s learning/decision process was revealed,and the influence degree of different variables on the molten steel temperature was clarified using the tree structure visualization and SHapley Additive exPlana-tions(SHAP)analysis.Consequently,the explainability of the optimal GWO-LGBM model was enhanced,providing reliable support for prediction results.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China Project(No.62302540)please visit their website at https://www.nsfc.gov.cn/(accessed on 18 June 2024).
文摘The methods of network attacks have become increasingly sophisticated,rendering traditional cybersecurity defense mechanisms insufficient to address novel and complex threats effectively.In recent years,artificial intelligence has achieved significant progress in the field of network security.However,many challenges and issues remain,particularly regarding the interpretability of deep learning and ensemble learning algorithms.To address the challenge of enhancing the interpretability of network attack prediction models,this paper proposes a method that combines Light Gradient Boosting Machine(LGBM)and SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP).LGBM is employed to model anomalous fluctuations in various network indicators,enabling the rapid and accurate identification and prediction of potential network attack types,thereby facilitating the implementation of timely defense measures,the model achieved an accuracy of 0.977,precision of 0.985,recall of 0.975,and an F1 score of 0.979,demonstrating better performance compared to other models in the domain of network attack prediction.SHAP is utilized to analyze the black-box decision-making process of the model,providing interpretability by quantifying the contribution of each feature to the prediction results and elucidating the relationships between features.The experimental results demonstrate that the network attack predictionmodel based on LGBM exhibits superior accuracy and outstanding predictive capabilities.Moreover,the SHAP-based interpretability analysis significantly improves the model’s transparency and interpretability.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (No. 2022YFA1603300)the Romanian Ministry of Research,Innovation and Digitalization under Contract PN 23.21.01.06+1 种基金The ELI-RO project with Contract ELI-RORDI-2024-008 (AMAP)a grant from the Romanian Ministry of Research,Innovation and Digitization,CNCS-UEFIS-CDI,with project numbers PN-Ⅲ-P4-PCE-2021-1014, PN-Ⅲ-P4-PCE-2021-0595, and PN-Ⅲ-P1-1.1-TE2021-1464 within PNCDI Ⅲ
文摘The first 2^(+)excited states of the nucleus directly reflect the interaction between the shell structure and the nucleus,providing insights into the validity of the shell model and nuclear structure characteristics.Although the features of the first 2^(+)excited states can be measured for stable nuclei and calculated using nuclear models,significant uncertainty remains.This study employs a machine learning model based on a light gradient boosting machine(LightGBM)to investigate the first 2^(+)excited states.Specifically,the training of the LightGBM algorithm and the prediction of the first 2^(+)properties of 642 nuclei are presented.Furthermore,detailed comparisons of the LightGBM predictions were performed with available experimental data,shell model calculations,and Bayesian neural network predictions.The results revealed that the average difference between the LightGBM predictions and the experimental data was 18 times smaller than that obtained by the shell model and only 70%of the BNN prediction results.Considering Mg,Ca,Kr,Sm,and Pb isotopes as examples,it was also observed that LightGBM can effectively reproduce the magic number mutation caused by shell effects,with the energy being as low as 0.04 MeV due to shape coexistence.Therefore,we believe that leveraging LightGBM-based machine learning can profoundly enhance our insights into nuclear structures and provide new avenues for nuclear physics research.
文摘Addressing classification and prediction challenges, tree ensemble models have gained significant importance. Boosting ensemble techniques are commonly employed for forecasting Type-II diabetes mellitus. Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) is a widely used algorithm known for its leaf growth strategy, loss reduction, and enhanced training precision. However, LightGBM is prone to overfitting. In contrast, CatBoost utilizes balanced base predictors known as decision tables, which mitigate overfitting risks and significantly improve testing time efficiency. CatBoost’s algorithm structure counteracts gradient boosting biases and incorporates an overfitting detector to stop training early. This study focuses on developing a hybrid model that combines LightGBM and CatBoost to minimize overfitting and improve accuracy by reducing variance. For the purpose of finding the best hyperparameters to use with the underlying learners, the Bayesian hyperparameter optimization method is used. By fine-tuning the regularization parameter values, the hybrid model effectively reduces variance (overfitting). Comparative evaluation against LightGBM, CatBoost, XGBoost, Decision Tree, Random Forest, AdaBoost, and GBM algorithms demonstrates that the hybrid model has the best F1-score (99.37%), recall (99.25%), and accuracy (99.37%). Consequently, the proposed framework holds promise for early diabetes prediction in the healthcare industry and exhibits potential applicability to other datasets sharing similarities with diabetes.
文摘In this paper,an advanced and optimized Light Gradient Boosting Machine(LGBM)technique is proposed to identify the intrusive activities in the Internet of Things(IoT)network.The followings are the major contributions:i)An optimized LGBM model has been developed for the identification of malicious IoT activities in the IoT network;ii)An efficient evolutionary optimization approach has been adopted for finding the optimal set of hyper-parameters of LGBM for the projected problem.Here,a Genetic Algorithm(GA)with k-way tournament selection and uniform crossover operation is used for efficient exploration of hyper-parameter search space;iii)Finally,the performance of the proposed model is evaluated using state-of-the-art ensemble learning and machine learning-based model to achieve overall generalized performance and efficiency.Simulation outcomes reveal that the proposed approach is superior to other considered methods and proves to be a robust approach to intrusion detection in an IoT environment.
基金This work is supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China(No.51875100,No.61673108,No.61674133)The authors would like to thank anonymous reviewers and the associate editor,whose constructive comments help improve the presentation of this work.
文摘Coal rock mass instability fracture may result in serious hazards to underground coal mining.Acoustic emissions(AE)stimulated by internal structure fracture should carry lots of favorable information about health condition of rock mass.AE as a sensitive non-destructive test method is gradually utilized to detect anomaly conditions of coal rock.This paper proposes an improved multi-resolution feature to extract AE waveform at different frequency resolutions using Coilflet Wavelet Transform method(CWT).It is further adopt an efficient Light Gradient Boosting Machine(LightGBM)by several cascaded sub weak classifier models to merge AE features at different views of frequency for coal rock anomaly damage recognition.The results denote that the proposed method achieves excellent recognition performance on anomaly damage levels of coal rock.It is an effective method to detect the critical stability further to predict the rock mass bursting in time.
基金funded by the Key Laboratory of Geological Safety of Coastal Urban Underground Space,Ministry of Natural Resources of China(Grant No.BHKF2022Y02)Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province,China(Grant No.2024A1515011162)Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province,China(Grant No.ZR2024QE021).
文摘Traditional mining in open pit mines often uses explosives,leading to environmental hazards,with flyrock being a critical issue.In detail,excess flying rock beyond the designated explosion area was identified as the primary cause of fatal and non-fatal blasting hazards in open pit mining.Therefore,the accurate and reliable prediction of flyrock becomes crucial for effectively managing and mitigating associated problems.This study used the Light Gradient Boosting Machine(LightGBM)model to predict flyrock in a lead-zinc mine,with promising results.To improve its accuracy,multi-verse optimizer(MVO)and ant lion optimizer(ALO)metaheuristic algorithms were introduced.Results showed MVO-LightGBM outperformed conventional LightGBM.Additionally,decision tree(DT),support vector machine(SVM),and classification and regression tree(CART)models were trained and compared with MVO-LightGBM.The MVO-LightGBM model excelled over DT,SVM,and CART.This study highlights MVO-LightGBM's effectiveness and potential for broader applications.Furthermore,a multiple parametric sensitivity analysis(MPSA)algorithm was employed to specify the sensitivity of parameters.MPSA results indicated that the highest and lowest sensitivities are relevant to blasted rock per hole and spacing with theγ=1752.12 andγ=49.52,respectively.
基金supported by the Center for Mining,Electro-Mechanical research of Hanoi University of Mining and Geology(HUMG),Hanoi,Vietnamfinancially supported by the Hunan Provincial Department of Education General Project(19C1744)+1 种基金Hunan Province Science Foundation for Youth Scholars of China fund(2018JJ3510)the Innovation-Driven Project of Central South University(2020CX040)。
文摘Blasting is well-known as an effective method for fragmenting or moving rock in open-pit mines.To evaluate the quality of blasting,the size of rock distribution is used as a critical criterion in blasting operations.A high percentage of oversized rocks generated by blasting operations can lead to economic and environmental damage.Therefore,this study proposed four novel intelligent models to predict the size of rock distribution in mine blasting in order to optimize blasting parameters,as well as the efficiency of blasting operation in open mines.Accordingly,a nature-inspired algorithm(i.e.,firefly algorithm-FFA)and different machine learning algorithms(i.e.,gradient boosting machine(GBM),support vector machine(SVM),Gaussian process(GP),and artificial neural network(ANN))were combined for this aim,abbreviated as FFA-GBM,FFA-SVM,FFA-GP,and FFA-ANN,respectively.Subsequently,predicted results from the abovementioned models were compared with each other using three statistical indicators(e.g.,mean absolute error,root-mean-squared error,and correlation coefficient)and color intensity method.For developing and simulating the size of rock in blasting operations,136 blasting events with their images were collected and analyzed by the Split-Desktop software.In which,111 events were randomly selected for the development and optimization of the models.Subsequently,the remaining 25 blasting events were applied to confirm the accuracy of the proposed models.Herein,blast design parameters were regarded as input variables to predict the size of rock in blasting operations.Finally,the obtained results revealed that the FFA is a robust optimization algorithm for estimating rock fragmentation in bench blasting.Among the models developed in this study,FFA-GBM provided the highest accuracy in predicting the size of fragmented rocks.The other techniques(i.e.,FFA-SVM,FFA-GP,and FFA-ANN)yielded lower computational stability and efficiency.Hence,the FFA-GBM model can be used as a powerful and precise soft computing tool that can be applied to practical engineering cases aiming to improve the quality of blasting and rock fragmentation.
文摘针对历史负荷特征提取困难所导致的短期电力负荷预测精度不高的问题,提出了基于堆叠泛化集成思想的逻辑斯谛灰狼优化-极限梯度提升-轻量级梯度提升机-门控循环单元(logistic grey wolf optimizer-extreme gradient boosting-light gradient boosting machine-gated recurrent unit, LGWO-XGBoost-LightGBM-GRU)的短期电力负荷预测算法。该算法首先使用逻辑斯谛映射对灰狼优化(grey wolf optimizer, GWO)算法进行改进得到LGWO算法,接着使用LGWO算法分别对XGBoost、LightGBM、GRU算法进行参数寻优,然后使用XGBoost、LightGBM算法对数据的不同特征进行初步提炼,最后将提炼的特征合并到历史负荷数据集中作为输入,并使用GRU进行最终的负荷预测,得到预测结果。以某工业园区的负荷预测为例进行验证,结果表明,该算法与最小二乘支持向量机(least squares support vector machines, LS-SVM)算法相比,均方根误差降低了68.85%,平均绝对误差降低了69.57%,平均绝对百分比误差降低了69.97%,决定系数提高了8.42%。该算法提高了短期电力负荷预测的精度。
基金supported by Guangzhou Municipal Health Science and Technology General Program (20221A011083)the Key Medical Disciplines and Specialties Program of Guangzhou(2021-2023)Guangdong University Innovation Team Project(2024KCXTD029)。
文摘BACKGROUND:The problem of prolonged emergency department length of stay(EDLOS) is becoming increasingly crucial.This study aims to develop a machine learning(ML) model to predict EDLOS,with EDLOS as the outcome variable and demographic characteristics,triage level,and medical resource utilization as predictive factors.METHODS:A retrospective analysis was performed on the patients who visited the emergency department of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University from March 2019to September 2021,and a total of 321,012 cases were identified.According to the inclusion and exclusion criteria,187,028 cases were finally included in the analysis.ML analysis was performed using R-squared(R^(2)),and the predictive factors and the EDLOS were used as independent variables and dependent variables,respectively,to establish models.The performance evaluation of the ML models was conducted through the utilization of the mean absolute error(MAE),root mean square error(RMSE),and R^(2),enabling an objective comparative analysis.RESULTS:In the comparative analysis of the six ML models,light gradient boosting machine(LightGBM) model demonstrated the lowest MAE(443.519) and RMSE(826.783),and the highest R^(2) value(0.48),indicating better model fit and predictive performance.Among the top 10 predictive factors associated with EDLOS according to the LightGBM model,the emergency waiting time,age,and emergency arrival time had the most significant impact on the EDLOS.CONCLUSION:The LightGBM model suggests that the emergency waiting time,age,and emergency arrival time may be used to predict the EDLOS.
基金supported by the State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety(Tianjin University)(Grant Number HESS-2106),Scientific and Technological Projects of Henan Province(Grant Number 222102320025)Key Scientific Research Project in Colleges and Universities of Henan Province of China(Grant Number 22B570003)+2 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Number 52109040,51739009)Excellent Youth Fund of Henan Province of China(212300410088)Science and Technology Innovation Talents Project of Henan Education Department of China(21HASTIT011).
文摘Global climate change and sea level rise have led to increased losses from flooding.Accurate prediction of floods is essential to mitigating flood losses in coastal cities.Physically based models cannot satisfy the demand for real-time prediction for urban flooding due to their computational complexity.In this study,we proposed a hybrid modeling approach for rapid prediction of urban floods,coupling the physically based model with the light gradient boosting machine(LightGBM)model.A hydrological–hydraulic model was used to provide sufficient data for the LightGBM model based on the personal computer storm water management model(PCSWMM).The variables related to rainfall,tide level,and the location of flood points were used as the input for the LightGBM model.To improve the prediction accuracy,the hyperparameters of the LightGBM model are optimized by grid search algorithm and K-fold cross-validation.Taking Haidian Island,Hainan Province,China as a case study,the optimum values of the learning rate,number of estimators,and number of leaves of the LightGBM model are 0.11,450,and 12,respectively.The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient(NSE)of the LightGBM model on the test set is 0.9896,indicating that the LightGBM model has reliable predictions and outperforms random forest(RF),extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost),and k-nearest neighbor(KNN).From the LightGBM model,the variables related to tide level were analyzed as the dominant variables for predicting the inundation depth based on the Gini index in the study area.The proposed LightGBM model provides a scientific reference for flood control in coastal cities considering its superior performance and computational efficiency.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.51608380 and 51538009)the Key Innovation Team Program of the Innovation Talents Promotion Plan by Ministry of Science and Technology of China(No.2016RA4059)the Specific Consultant Research Project of Shanghai Tunnel Engineering Company Ltd.(No.STEC/KJB/XMGL/0130),China。
文摘The compression modulus(Es)is one of the most significant soil parameters that affects the compressive deformation of geotechnical systems,such as foundations.However,it is difficult and sometime costly to obtain this parameter in engineering practice.In this study,we aimed to develop a non-parametric ensemble artificial intelligence(AI)approach to calculate the Es of soft clay in contrast to the traditional regression models proposed in previous studies.A gradient boosted regression tree(GBRT)algorithm was used to discern the non-linear pattern between input variables and the target response,while a genetic algorithm(GA)was adopted for tuning the GBRT model's hyper-parameters.The model was tested through 10-fold cross validation.A dataset of 221 samples from 65 engineering survey reports from Shanghai infrastructure projects was constructed to evaluate the accuracy of the new model5 s predictions.The mean squared error and correlation coefficient of the optimum GBRT model applied to the testing set were 0.13 and 0.91,respectively,indicating that the proposed machine learning(ML)model has great potential to improve the prediction of Es for soft clay.A comparison of the performance of empirical formulas and the proposed ML method for predicting foundation settlement indicated the rationality of the proposed ML model and its applicability to the compressive deformation of geotechnical systems.This model,however,cannot be directly applied to the prediction of Es in other sites due to its site specificity.This problem can be solved by retraining the model using local data.This study provides a useful reference for future multi-parameter prediction of soil behavior.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.51974023 and 52374321)the funding of State Key Laboratory of Advanced Metallurgy,University of Science and Technology Beijing(No.41621005)the Youth Science and Technology Innovation Fund of Jianlong Group-University of Science and Technology Beijing(No.20231235).
文摘Accurate prediction of molten steel temperature in the ladle furnace(LF)refining process has an important influence on the quality of molten steel and the control of steelmaking cost.Extensive research on establishing models to predict molten steel temperature has been conducted.However,most researchers focus solely on improving the accuracy of the model,neglecting its explainability.The present study aims to develop a high-precision and explainable model with improved reliability and transparency.The eXtreme gradient boosting(XGBoost)and light gradient boosting machine(LGBM)were utilized,along with bayesian optimization and grey wolf optimiz-ation(GWO),to establish the prediction model.Different performance evaluation metrics and graphical representations were applied to compare the optimal XGBoost and LGBM models obtained through varying hyperparameter optimization methods with the other models.The findings indicated that the GWO-LGBM model outperformed other methods in predicting molten steel temperature,with a high pre-diction accuracy of 89.35%within the error range of±5°C.The model’s learning/decision process was revealed,and the influence degree of different variables on the molten steel temperature was clarified using the tree structure visualization and SHapley Additive exPlana-tions(SHAP)analysis.Consequently,the explainability of the optimal GWO-LGBM model was enhanced,providing reliable support for prediction results.
