In the first quarter of 2025,China's macro leverage ratio surged by 7.8 percentage points to 298.4%,making it the highest single-quarter increase in nearly a decade.The government leverage ratio hit a new two-deca...In the first quarter of 2025,China's macro leverage ratio surged by 7.8 percentage points to 298.4%,making it the highest single-quarter increase in nearly a decade.The government leverage ratio hit a new two-decade high,a trend that has actively supported the repair of private-sector balance sheets and fueled a robust economic rebound at the start of this year.Meanwhile,the household sector has shifted from deleveraging to leverage stabilization,while the corporate sector showed a tendency to increase leverage.These developments collectively underscore the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance innovation based on national macro balance sheet management.展开更多
Based on the latest macro financial data, this paper estimates China＇ s overall leverage ratio and sector-specific leverage ratios for households, non-financial enterprises, government and financial institutions. It ...Based on the latest macro financial data, this paper estimates China＇ s overall leverage ratio and sector-specific leverage ratios for households, non-financial enterprises, government and financial institutions. It is noted with particular emphasis that the tendency of non-financial enterprises to increase leverage has further intensified instead of abated, which warrants our great attention. Considering that increasing leverage of government sector represents a basic international trend since the eruption of global financial crisis, we simulate the paths of dynamic evolution of China＇s debt-to-GDP ratio on the basis of different scenarios of the difference between real economic growth rate and real interest rate, together with the NPL ratio of banks. Result indicates that in the coming two decades, the leverage ratio of China＇s government sector will continue to rise and will not converge. Hiking leverage ratio, growing debt burden and rising non-performing assets present major financial risks facing China for a certain period of time in the future. Under the premise of supply-side structural reforms and in tandem with the efforts of the real economy to reduce overcapacity, inventory and eliminate zombie firms, we suggest that China focus on disposing of non-performing assets and steadily deleverage through the implementation of integrated strategies to prevent debt problems from triggering systemic financial crisis.展开更多
Using available data and necessary estimations, this paper provides a tentative picture of the balance sheet of China＇s sovereign account between 2000 and 2010. The main findings indicate that the net worth of China...Using available data and necessary estimations, this paper provides a tentative picture of the balance sheet of China＇s sovereign account between 2000 and 2010. The main findings indicate that the net worth of China＇s sovereign assets had been positive and increasing during the period under review. This implies that the Chinese government has sufficient sovereign assets to cover its sovereign liabilities, therefore the likelihood of a sovereign debt crisis in China is extremely low in the near term. Moreover, although China＇s leverage ratio （total liabilities/GDP） is far lower compared to advanced economies, it seems higher than that of other major emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, and India （BRIC）. In fact, the leverage ratio has been increasing rapidly over recent years and requires special attention. In particular, according to sector-specific analysis, high corporate liability ratios （percentage to GDP） constitute a major concern of China＇s national balance sheet. In 2010, this liability ratio exceeded l OO percent, which exceeds the 90 percent level observed in OECD countries. Lastly, this paper concludes that a sustainable economic growth and structural transformation of growth model are the fundamental means to taming China＇s balance sheet risks.展开更多
The braking quality is considered the main execution of the adaptive control framework that impacts the vehicle safety and rides solace astoundingly notably the stopping distance.This research work aims to create a pa...The braking quality is considered the main execution of the adaptive control framework that impacts the vehicle safety and rides solace astoundingly notably the stopping distance.This research work aims to create a pattern and design of an electromechanically adjusted lever that multiplies the applied braking force depending on the inputs given by the sensors to reduce the stopping distance of the vehicle.It is carried out using two main parts of the two-wheeler vehicle:thefirst part deals with the detection of load acting on the vehicle and identifying the required braking force to be applied,and the second part deals with the micro-controller which activates the stepper motor for varying the mechanical leverage ratio from various loads on the vehicle using two actively movable wedges.The electromechanically operated variable braking force system is developed to actuate the braking system based on the load on the motorcycle.The MATLAB simulation and experimental work are carried out for various loading(driver and pillion)conditions on a two-wheeler.The results indicate that the proposed electronically operated braking system is more effective than the conventional braking system for various loads and vehicle speeds.Specifically,the stopping distance of the vehicle is decreased significantly by about 4.9%between the con-ventional braking system and the simulated proposed system.Further,the experi-mental results show that the stopping distance is condensed by about 4.1%.The validation between simulated and experimental results revealed a great deal with the least error percentage of about 0.8%.展开更多
This paper investigates the effectiveness of various factors upon the capital structure decisions of Chinese firms by conducting an empirical analysis of Chinese-listed retail companies.An unbalanced panel dataset was...This paper investigates the effectiveness of various factors upon the capital structure decisions of Chinese firms by conducting an empirical analysis of Chinese-listed retail companies.An unbalanced panel dataset was formed with a sample of 110 companies observed for 12 years(2010~2021).Each observation is measured quarterly.Traditional explanatory variables are adopted in the study,including profitability,company size,tangibility of assets,internal financing ability,tax ratio,growth opportunities,and volatility.By employing the Fama-Macbeth approach,the regression results are interpreted to determine the impact of independent variables upon the leverage a company takes on.To solve the reverse causality problem,we include the lag term(last quarter’s data)of the debt-to-equity ratio as control variables.Consistent with previous theoretical and empirical studies,firms’leverage ratio is positively related to size,tangibility,tax ratio,and last quarter’s debt level.Companies’profitability and internal financing ability are negatively correlated with their debt-to-equity ratio.Firms’earning volatility and growth opportunities do not show significant relationship with the debt-to-equity ratio.The study has provided more empirical evidence on capital structure theories regarding emerging financial markets.展开更多
Dividing aggregate liabilities by GDP is not an appropriate method for calculating the leverage ratio, and may mislead deleveraging operations. In terms of an intrinsic mechanism, an appropriate measure of leverage ra...Dividing aggregate liabilities by GDP is not an appropriate method for calculating the leverage ratio, and may mislead deleveraging operations. In terms of an intrinsic mechanism, an appropriate measure of leverage ratio should be the liability/asset ratio. In their business operations, it is inevitable for real-economy enterprises to incur liabilities arising from business and financial transactions. Therefore, the significance of deleveraging operations is to reduce the leverage ratio below a certain threshold to effectively prevent risks arising from an excessive leverage ratio, rather than to reduce the liability ratio of real-economy enterprises to zero. For real-economy enterprises, a key question is how to adjust their debt structure by reducing current liabilities and increasing mid-and long-term liabilities. The debt structure of real-economy enterprises is primarily determined by their financial structure. Hence, it is essential to adjust the financial structure in order to improve the debt structure of real-economy enterprises and increase the share of direct finance. Various risks exist in the combination of shares and bonds within the banking system, investment-lending linkage and market-based debt-to-equity operations, which are options in reducing the leverage ratio for real-economy enterprises. From the standpoint of giving play to capital market functions, it is advisable to increase the issuance of midand long-term corporate bonds and preferred stock, restrict non-financial listed companies from engaging in financial operations and the shareholders of listed companies from selling shares, encourage equity investment institutions to enhance equity investment in realeconomy enterprises, and further develop the financing function of the stock market.展开更多
Using province-level data in China for the period of 1999-2015,we examine the mechanisms through which sectoral differences in leverage ratio and productivity affect macro leverage ratios.The state-owned sector undert...Using province-level data in China for the period of 1999-2015,we examine the mechanisms through which sectoral differences in leverage ratio and productivity affect macro leverage ratios.The state-owned sector undertakes a large number of public services and plays an irreplaceable role in solving market failures and providing public goods.However,in the case of information asymmetry and incentive incompatibility,these policy burdens affect the leverage optimization and productivity improvement of the state-owned sector.From the perspective of sectoral differences,we therefore decompose the change in macro leverage ratio into leverage ratio structure effect and productivity structure effect,and then substantiate the impact mechanisms of these two effects on macro leverage ratios.Overall,our conclusions provide theoretical support and empirical evidence for structural deleveraging in China.展开更多
The COVID-19 pandemic,the regulation of real estate,and external uncertainties are the core variables in the recent evolution of China’s financial risks,and overall planning and structural deployment are the key guar...The COVID-19 pandemic,the regulation of real estate,and external uncertainties are the core variables in the recent evolution of China’s financial risks,and overall planning and structural deployment are the key guarantees for China’s financial stability.From an aggregate perspective,China’s systemic financial risk tended to ease overall in 2021,but remained high.The risk profile of China’s financial system in 2021 presented five important features.First,the macro leverage ratio fell slightly,but exposed the hidden dangers of balance sheet recession.Second,there was a certain blockage in the transmission of financial system liquidity to the real economy.Third,the fragility of the financial system was further exposed,the bond default balance reached a new high,the structural differentiation of bonds between state-owned and private enterprises became prominent,and private enterprise default became more serious.Fourth,the contagion effect of domestic cross-market financial risks remained significant.Fifth,the international political and economic situation was volatile,and spillover effects such as the rising prices of raw materials,the inauguration of a new US administration,and the shift of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy were significantly strengthened.In terms of key risk areas,the risks of the real estate market,hidden government debt,and small-and medium-sized domestic banks were quite prominent.In 2022,pandemic prevention and control,economic recovery,and structural upgrading will remain the main themes of China’s development.China’s financial risks are generally under control,but the country will still face major risks such as a high macro leverage ratio,tight market liquidity,increasing debt vulnerability,significant spillover effects,and rising volatility in the international market.展开更多
文摘In the first quarter of 2025,China's macro leverage ratio surged by 7.8 percentage points to 298.4%,making it the highest single-quarter increase in nearly a decade.The government leverage ratio hit a new two-decade high,a trend that has actively supported the repair of private-sector balance sheets and fueled a robust economic rebound at the start of this year.Meanwhile,the household sector has shifted from deleveraging to leverage stabilization,while the corporate sector showed a tendency to increase leverage.These developments collectively underscore the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance innovation based on national macro balance sheet management.
文摘Based on the latest macro financial data, this paper estimates China＇ s overall leverage ratio and sector-specific leverage ratios for households, non-financial enterprises, government and financial institutions. It is noted with particular emphasis that the tendency of non-financial enterprises to increase leverage has further intensified instead of abated, which warrants our great attention. Considering that increasing leverage of government sector represents a basic international trend since the eruption of global financial crisis, we simulate the paths of dynamic evolution of China＇s debt-to-GDP ratio on the basis of different scenarios of the difference between real economic growth rate and real interest rate, together with the NPL ratio of banks. Result indicates that in the coming two decades, the leverage ratio of China＇s government sector will continue to rise and will not converge. Hiking leverage ratio, growing debt burden and rising non-performing assets present major financial risks facing China for a certain period of time in the future. Under the premise of supply-side structural reforms and in tandem with the efforts of the real economy to reduce overcapacity, inventory and eliminate zombie firms, we suggest that China focus on disposing of non-performing assets and steadily deleverage through the implementation of integrated strategies to prevent debt problems from triggering systemic financial crisis.
文摘Using available data and necessary estimations, this paper provides a tentative picture of the balance sheet of China＇s sovereign account between 2000 and 2010. The main findings indicate that the net worth of China＇s sovereign assets had been positive and increasing during the period under review. This implies that the Chinese government has sufficient sovereign assets to cover its sovereign liabilities, therefore the likelihood of a sovereign debt crisis in China is extremely low in the near term. Moreover, although China＇s leverage ratio （total liabilities/GDP） is far lower compared to advanced economies, it seems higher than that of other major emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, and India （BRIC）. In fact, the leverage ratio has been increasing rapidly over recent years and requires special attention. In particular, according to sector-specific analysis, high corporate liability ratios （percentage to GDP） constitute a major concern of China＇s national balance sheet. In 2010, this liability ratio exceeded l OO percent, which exceeds the 90 percent level observed in OECD countries. Lastly, this paper concludes that a sustainable economic growth and structural transformation of growth model are the fundamental means to taming China＇s balance sheet risks.
文摘The braking quality is considered the main execution of the adaptive control framework that impacts the vehicle safety and rides solace astoundingly notably the stopping distance.This research work aims to create a pattern and design of an electromechanically adjusted lever that multiplies the applied braking force depending on the inputs given by the sensors to reduce the stopping distance of the vehicle.It is carried out using two main parts of the two-wheeler vehicle:thefirst part deals with the detection of load acting on the vehicle and identifying the required braking force to be applied,and the second part deals with the micro-controller which activates the stepper motor for varying the mechanical leverage ratio from various loads on the vehicle using two actively movable wedges.The electromechanically operated variable braking force system is developed to actuate the braking system based on the load on the motorcycle.The MATLAB simulation and experimental work are carried out for various loading(driver and pillion)conditions on a two-wheeler.The results indicate that the proposed electronically operated braking system is more effective than the conventional braking system for various loads and vehicle speeds.Specifically,the stopping distance of the vehicle is decreased significantly by about 4.9%between the con-ventional braking system and the simulated proposed system.Further,the experi-mental results show that the stopping distance is condensed by about 4.1%.The validation between simulated and experimental results revealed a great deal with the least error percentage of about 0.8%.
文摘This paper investigates the effectiveness of various factors upon the capital structure decisions of Chinese firms by conducting an empirical analysis of Chinese-listed retail companies.An unbalanced panel dataset was formed with a sample of 110 companies observed for 12 years(2010~2021).Each observation is measured quarterly.Traditional explanatory variables are adopted in the study,including profitability,company size,tangibility of assets,internal financing ability,tax ratio,growth opportunities,and volatility.By employing the Fama-Macbeth approach,the regression results are interpreted to determine the impact of independent variables upon the leverage a company takes on.To solve the reverse causality problem,we include the lag term(last quarter’s data)of the debt-to-equity ratio as control variables.Consistent with previous theoretical and empirical studies,firms’leverage ratio is positively related to size,tangibility,tax ratio,and last quarter’s debt level.Companies’profitability and internal financing ability are negatively correlated with their debt-to-equity ratio.Firms’earning volatility and growth opportunities do not show significant relationship with the debt-to-equity ratio.The study has provided more empirical evidence on capital structure theories regarding emerging financial markets.
文摘Dividing aggregate liabilities by GDP is not an appropriate method for calculating the leverage ratio, and may mislead deleveraging operations. In terms of an intrinsic mechanism, an appropriate measure of leverage ratio should be the liability/asset ratio. In their business operations, it is inevitable for real-economy enterprises to incur liabilities arising from business and financial transactions. Therefore, the significance of deleveraging operations is to reduce the leverage ratio below a certain threshold to effectively prevent risks arising from an excessive leverage ratio, rather than to reduce the liability ratio of real-economy enterprises to zero. For real-economy enterprises, a key question is how to adjust their debt structure by reducing current liabilities and increasing mid-and long-term liabilities. The debt structure of real-economy enterprises is primarily determined by their financial structure. Hence, it is essential to adjust the financial structure in order to improve the debt structure of real-economy enterprises and increase the share of direct finance. Various risks exist in the combination of shares and bonds within the banking system, investment-lending linkage and market-based debt-to-equity operations, which are options in reducing the leverage ratio for real-economy enterprises. From the standpoint of giving play to capital market functions, it is advisable to increase the issuance of midand long-term corporate bonds and preferred stock, restrict non-financial listed companies from engaging in financial operations and the shareholders of listed companies from selling shares, encourage equity investment institutions to enhance equity investment in realeconomy enterprises, and further develop the financing function of the stock market.
基金supported financially by the National Social Science Foundation of China(No.21FJYB005)the China Postdoctoral ScienceFoundation(No.2019M663758).
文摘Using province-level data in China for the period of 1999-2015,we examine the mechanisms through which sectoral differences in leverage ratio and productivity affect macro leverage ratios.The state-owned sector undertakes a large number of public services and plays an irreplaceable role in solving market failures and providing public goods.However,in the case of information asymmetry and incentive incompatibility,these policy burdens affect the leverage optimization and productivity improvement of the state-owned sector.From the perspective of sectoral differences,we therefore decompose the change in macro leverage ratio into leverage ratio structure effect and productivity structure effect,and then substantiate the impact mechanisms of these two effects on macro leverage ratios.Overall,our conclusions provide theoretical support and empirical evidence for structural deleveraging in China.
文摘The COVID-19 pandemic,the regulation of real estate,and external uncertainties are the core variables in the recent evolution of China’s financial risks,and overall planning and structural deployment are the key guarantees for China’s financial stability.From an aggregate perspective,China’s systemic financial risk tended to ease overall in 2021,but remained high.The risk profile of China’s financial system in 2021 presented five important features.First,the macro leverage ratio fell slightly,but exposed the hidden dangers of balance sheet recession.Second,there was a certain blockage in the transmission of financial system liquidity to the real economy.Third,the fragility of the financial system was further exposed,the bond default balance reached a new high,the structural differentiation of bonds between state-owned and private enterprises became prominent,and private enterprise default became more serious.Fourth,the contagion effect of domestic cross-market financial risks remained significant.Fifth,the international political and economic situation was volatile,and spillover effects such as the rising prices of raw materials,the inauguration of a new US administration,and the shift of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy were significantly strengthened.In terms of key risk areas,the risks of the real estate market,hidden government debt,and small-and medium-sized domestic banks were quite prominent.In 2022,pandemic prevention and control,economic recovery,and structural upgrading will remain the main themes of China’s development.China’s financial risks are generally under control,but the country will still face major risks such as a high macro leverage ratio,tight market liquidity,increasing debt vulnerability,significant spillover effects,and rising volatility in the international market.
