Vegetation restoration is a critical strategy for mitigating debris flow hazards by stabilizing slopes and modifying hydrological processes.Effective planning of priority restoration areas is particularly essential in...Vegetation restoration is a critical strategy for mitigating debris flow hazards by stabilizing slopes and modifying hydrological processes.Effective planning of priority restoration areas is particularly essential in dry-hot valley regions,where extreme hydrothermal conditions pose significant challenges.This study presents a novel framework that integrates microclimatic variables,such as temperature lapse rates,to enhance the spatial precision of revegetation efforts.The Reshuihe watershed in Southwest China,a representative dry-hot valley,was chosen as the study area.By analyzing hourly temperature and rainfall across an elevation gradient,a quadratic relationship between temperature lapse rates and weak rainfall events was identified,underscoring the role of microclimatic processes in influencing rainfall distribution and plant-available water.Rainfall peaks were observed when the temperature lapse rate was approximately 4.5°C/km.This relationship was incorporated into a cost-based restoration framework using the Marxan model,optimizing the spatial allocation of priority areas for revegetation.Results demonstrated that integrating microclimatic variables significantly improved the effectiveness of revegetation strategies,particularly for reducing debris flow risks.The lowest restoration costs were observed between elevations of 3200 m and 3300 m,where strong correlations between temperature lapse rates and rainfall were recorded.Priority restoration areas covered 41 km^(2),targeting zones with high debris flow risks.These findings highlight the value of incorporating microclimatic data into revegetation planning,enabling cost-effective and ecologically sustainable hazard mitigation in regions vulnerable to hydrological hazards.展开更多
Selecting the embryo with the highest implantation potential is a top priority in in-vitro fertilization(IVF)centers.Few studies have explored the relationship between day 5 blastocyst morphokinetics and implantation ...Selecting the embryo with the highest implantation potential is a top priority in in-vitro fertilization(IVF)centers.Few studies have explored the relationship between day 5 blastocyst morphokinetics and implantation outcomes[1].Despite numerous time-lapse studies,the findings often conflict due to differences in patient demographics,lab conditions,and protocols,such as oxygen concentration[2].Thus,there is ongoing debate regarding which parameters are most predictive of implantation.展开更多
Background:Much has been written about the loss to follow-up in the transition between pediatric and adult Congenital Heart Disease(CHD)care centers.Much less is understood about the loss to follow-up(LTF)after a succ...Background:Much has been written about the loss to follow-up in the transition between pediatric and adult Congenital Heart Disease(CHD)care centers.Much less is understood about the loss to follow-up(LTF)after a successful transition.This is critical too,as patients lost to specialised care are more likely to experience mor-bidity and premature mortality.Aims:To understand the prevalence and reasons for loss to follow-up(LTF)at a large Australian Adult Congenital Heart Disease(ACHD)centre.Methods:Patients with moderate or highly complex CHD and gaps in care of>3 years(defined as LTF)were identified from a comprehensive ACHD data-base.Structured telephone interviews examined current care and barriers to clinic attendance.Results:Overall,407(22%)of ACHD patients(n=1842)were LTF.The mean age at LTF was 31(SD 11.5)years and 54%were male;311(76%)were uncontactable.Compared to adults seen regularly,lost patients were younger,with a greater socio-economic disadvantage,and had less complex CHD(p<0.05 for all).We interviewed 59 patients(14%).The top 3 responses for care absences were“feeling well”(61%),losing track of time(36%),and not needing fol-low-up care(25%).Conclusions:A large proportion of the ACHD population becomes lost to specialised cardiac care,even after a successful transition.This Australian study reports younger age,moderate complexity defects,and socio-economic disadvantage as predictive of loss to follow-up.This study highlights the need for novel approaches to patient-centered service delivery even beyond the age of transition and resources to maintain patient engagement within the ACHD service.展开更多
The Alborz Mountains are some of the highest in Iran,and they play an important role in controlling the climate of the country’s northern regions.The land surface temperature(LST)is an important variable that affects...The Alborz Mountains are some of the highest in Iran,and they play an important role in controlling the climate of the country’s northern regions.The land surface temperature(LST)is an important variable that affects the ecosystem of this area.This study investigated the spatiotemporal changes and trends of the nighttime LST in the western region of the Central Alborz Mountains at elevations of 1500-4000 m above sea level.MODIS data were extracted for the period of 2000-2021,and the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test was applied to evaluating the changes in the LST.The results indicated a significant increasing trend for the monthly average LST in May-August along the southern aspect.Both the northern and southern aspects showed decreasing trends for the monthly average LST in October,November,and March and an increasing trend in other months.At all elevations,the average decadal change in the monthly average LST was more severe along the southern aspect(0.60°C)than along the northern aspect(0.37°C).The LST difference between the northern and southern aspects decreased in the cold months but increased in the hot months.At the same elevation,the difference in the lapse rate between the northern and southern aspects was greater in the hot months than in the cold months.With increasing elevation,the lapse rate between the northern and southern aspects disappeared.Climate change was concluded to greatly decrease the difference in LST at different elevations for April-July.展开更多
The IndyCar series distinguishes itself by providing the same design and operation of the single-seater to its pilots.The difference in times is then attributable to the skills of the drivers,but considering the data ...The IndyCar series distinguishes itself by providing the same design and operation of the single-seater to its pilots.The difference in times is then attributable to the skills of the drivers,but considering the data from the races could test this assumption.The objective of this work was to establish a trajectory model to predict race times.A cross-sectional,correlational,and explanatory work was carried out with a sample of 18,474 records in the period from 2020 to 2023 of the IndyCar series.The results show that the time span predicts the time differences.In relation to the studies of acceptance of the technology,the adjustment of this to human capacities to explain the time differences in the series of racing cars is discussed.展开更多
太阳能光伏发电已成为仅次于水电和风能的第三大可再生能源,光伏发电受云量时空变化的影响较大,因此准确模拟云天太阳辐射的时空变化对电网安全运行至关重要。围绕如何减小中尺度气象模式的云初始场误差,进而改进云天的太阳辐射模拟这...太阳能光伏发电已成为仅次于水电和风能的第三大可再生能源,光伏发电受云量时空变化的影响较大,因此准确模拟云天太阳辐射的时空变化对电网安全运行至关重要。围绕如何减小中尺度气象模式的云初始场误差,进而改进云天的太阳辐射模拟这一关键科学问题,本文通过研究基于卫星资料同化的LAPS(Local Analysis Prediction System)多时间层三维云分析同化方法,改进三维云结构,并将LAPS模式输出结果作为WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式的初始场,模拟了2008年1月及夏季(6~8月)北京地区的总云量和总辐射的时空分布,重点分析了多云和有降水天气过程总辐射的模拟改进效果及其原因。结果表明,同化前后的总云量模拟值与观测值的时间变化趋势基本一致,但大部分时次总云量的模拟值低于观测值;大部分多云及降水时段同化后总云量模拟值较接近于实测值。1月晴天、多云天以及夏季晴天同化前后总辐射模拟值与实测值的时间变化趋势较一致,但同化前后两者的相关性差异不明显;晴天条件下同化前后总辐射模拟值均低于实测值,1月多云条件下多数时段同化后总辐射模拟误差减小不明显,与总云量的改进效果不显著有关。夏季多云、有降水及6月典型降水三种天气条件下同化前后总辐射模拟值与观测值的相关性稍差,同化后两者的相关性较同化前有所改进,尤其是6月典型降水过程改进效果较明显;同化前总辐射模拟误差较大,而同化后误差显著减小,尤其是6月典型降水过程同化后均方根误差和平均相对误差较同化前分别减小了102.6 W m^(-2)和355.9%,最大相对误差减小更显著;同化后总辐射模拟误差小于同化前的比例高达75%,即大部分时刻同化后模拟误差小于同化前。多云和有降水天气过程总辐射模拟效果的显著改进与总云量的改进密切相关,即同化后总云量模拟值增加,云的反射和散射作用增强,导致模拟总辐射减小,即更接近于实测总辐射值。研究结果对于多云和降水天气条件下太阳辐射的模拟效果改进、太阳能资源客观评估以及光伏电站的发电量预测具有一定的科学和实际应用价值。展开更多
利用LAPS(Local Analysis and Prediction System)系统同化GPS(Global Positioning System)/PWV(Precipitable Water Vapor)资料,分析GPS/PWV资料对LAPS输出场的影响,并结合WRF模式,将LAPS输出场作为其初始场进行降水预报,进一步考察GPS...利用LAPS(Local Analysis and Prediction System)系统同化GPS(Global Positioning System)/PWV(Precipitable Water Vapor)资料,分析GPS/PWV资料对LAPS输出场的影响,并结合WRF模式,将LAPS输出场作为其初始场进行降水预报,进一步考察GPS/PWV资料对降水预报的作用。选取2009年6月28日湖北地区的一次强降水过程,设计三种方案进行试验。结果表明:同化GPS/PWV资料后对LAPS湿度场有显著的改善,而对高度场及风场的作用则不明显;GPS/PWV资料对区域平均可降水量的影响比雷达资料大一个量级;与此同时,利用多种评分方法对6 h累计降水做了检验,分析结果表明同化GPS/PWV资料能够有效地改进WRF模式的初始场,增加丰富的中小尺度信息,并对随后的确定性预报产生正影响。展开更多
用雷达等观测资料以及LAPS(Local Analysis and Prediction System)中尺度再分析场资料,对2009年6月14日在河南、安徽等地引发冰雹大风天气的两个强对流系统的形成演变过程中的对流云合并现象进行观测分析。研究表明,不论是单体间的合...用雷达等观测资料以及LAPS(Local Analysis and Prediction System)中尺度再分析场资料,对2009年6月14日在河南、安徽等地引发冰雹大风天气的两个强对流系统的形成演变过程中的对流云合并现象进行观测分析。研究表明,不论是单体间的合并还是对流系统间的合并,合并后单体或对流系统都有显著的增强,并且和强对流天气的发生关系密切。安徽整个对流系统的形成经历了"小单体—大单体或积云团—小的对流系统—大的对流系统"多阶段的合并过程,强对流天气发生和对流系统的阵风锋有关,合并过程中阵风锋达到最强;对流单体的合并和低层气流的相互作用有关,是单体自身的出入流和环境引导风共同作用的结果。LAPS中尺度再分析场资料的结果说明层结不稳定、中尺度辐合和垂直风切变是这次强对流系统形成和对流云合并的重要条件。展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China for General Program(42171118)the National Natural Science Foundation of China for Distinguished Young Scholars(41925030)the Special Funding Projects of Talents of Yunnan Province(YNWR-QNBJ-2020-099).
文摘Vegetation restoration is a critical strategy for mitigating debris flow hazards by stabilizing slopes and modifying hydrological processes.Effective planning of priority restoration areas is particularly essential in dry-hot valley regions,where extreme hydrothermal conditions pose significant challenges.This study presents a novel framework that integrates microclimatic variables,such as temperature lapse rates,to enhance the spatial precision of revegetation efforts.The Reshuihe watershed in Southwest China,a representative dry-hot valley,was chosen as the study area.By analyzing hourly temperature and rainfall across an elevation gradient,a quadratic relationship between temperature lapse rates and weak rainfall events was identified,underscoring the role of microclimatic processes in influencing rainfall distribution and plant-available water.Rainfall peaks were observed when the temperature lapse rate was approximately 4.5°C/km.This relationship was incorporated into a cost-based restoration framework using the Marxan model,optimizing the spatial allocation of priority areas for revegetation.Results demonstrated that integrating microclimatic variables significantly improved the effectiveness of revegetation strategies,particularly for reducing debris flow risks.The lowest restoration costs were observed between elevations of 3200 m and 3300 m,where strong correlations between temperature lapse rates and rainfall were recorded.Priority restoration areas covered 41 km^(2),targeting zones with high debris flow risks.These findings highlight the value of incorporating microclimatic data into revegetation planning,enabling cost-effective and ecologically sustainable hazard mitigation in regions vulnerable to hydrological hazards.
文摘Selecting the embryo with the highest implantation potential is a top priority in in-vitro fertilization(IVF)centers.Few studies have explored the relationship between day 5 blastocyst morphokinetics and implantation outcomes[1].Despite numerous time-lapse studies,the findings often conflict due to differences in patient demographics,lab conditions,and protocols,such as oxygen concentration[2].Thus,there is ongoing debate regarding which parameters are most predictive of implantation.
文摘Background:Much has been written about the loss to follow-up in the transition between pediatric and adult Congenital Heart Disease(CHD)care centers.Much less is understood about the loss to follow-up(LTF)after a successful transition.This is critical too,as patients lost to specialised care are more likely to experience mor-bidity and premature mortality.Aims:To understand the prevalence and reasons for loss to follow-up(LTF)at a large Australian Adult Congenital Heart Disease(ACHD)centre.Methods:Patients with moderate or highly complex CHD and gaps in care of>3 years(defined as LTF)were identified from a comprehensive ACHD data-base.Structured telephone interviews examined current care and barriers to clinic attendance.Results:Overall,407(22%)of ACHD patients(n=1842)were LTF.The mean age at LTF was 31(SD 11.5)years and 54%were male;311(76%)were uncontactable.Compared to adults seen regularly,lost patients were younger,with a greater socio-economic disadvantage,and had less complex CHD(p<0.05 for all).We interviewed 59 patients(14%).The top 3 responses for care absences were“feeling well”(61%),losing track of time(36%),and not needing fol-low-up care(25%).Conclusions:A large proportion of the ACHD population becomes lost to specialised cardiac care,even after a successful transition.This Australian study reports younger age,moderate complexity defects,and socio-economic disadvantage as predictive of loss to follow-up.This study highlights the need for novel approaches to patient-centered service delivery even beyond the age of transition and resources to maintain patient engagement within the ACHD service.
文摘The Alborz Mountains are some of the highest in Iran,and they play an important role in controlling the climate of the country’s northern regions.The land surface temperature(LST)is an important variable that affects the ecosystem of this area.This study investigated the spatiotemporal changes and trends of the nighttime LST in the western region of the Central Alborz Mountains at elevations of 1500-4000 m above sea level.MODIS data were extracted for the period of 2000-2021,and the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test was applied to evaluating the changes in the LST.The results indicated a significant increasing trend for the monthly average LST in May-August along the southern aspect.Both the northern and southern aspects showed decreasing trends for the monthly average LST in October,November,and March and an increasing trend in other months.At all elevations,the average decadal change in the monthly average LST was more severe along the southern aspect(0.60°C)than along the northern aspect(0.37°C).The LST difference between the northern and southern aspects decreased in the cold months but increased in the hot months.At the same elevation,the difference in the lapse rate between the northern and southern aspects was greater in the hot months than in the cold months.With increasing elevation,the lapse rate between the northern and southern aspects disappeared.Climate change was concluded to greatly decrease the difference in LST at different elevations for April-July.
文摘The IndyCar series distinguishes itself by providing the same design and operation of the single-seater to its pilots.The difference in times is then attributable to the skills of the drivers,but considering the data from the races could test this assumption.The objective of this work was to establish a trajectory model to predict race times.A cross-sectional,correlational,and explanatory work was carried out with a sample of 18,474 records in the period from 2020 to 2023 of the IndyCar series.The results show that the time span predicts the time differences.In relation to the studies of acceptance of the technology,the adjustment of this to human capacities to explain the time differences in the series of racing cars is discussed.
文摘太阳能光伏发电已成为仅次于水电和风能的第三大可再生能源,光伏发电受云量时空变化的影响较大,因此准确模拟云天太阳辐射的时空变化对电网安全运行至关重要。围绕如何减小中尺度气象模式的云初始场误差,进而改进云天的太阳辐射模拟这一关键科学问题,本文通过研究基于卫星资料同化的LAPS(Local Analysis Prediction System)多时间层三维云分析同化方法,改进三维云结构,并将LAPS模式输出结果作为WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式的初始场,模拟了2008年1月及夏季(6~8月)北京地区的总云量和总辐射的时空分布,重点分析了多云和有降水天气过程总辐射的模拟改进效果及其原因。结果表明,同化前后的总云量模拟值与观测值的时间变化趋势基本一致,但大部分时次总云量的模拟值低于观测值;大部分多云及降水时段同化后总云量模拟值较接近于实测值。1月晴天、多云天以及夏季晴天同化前后总辐射模拟值与实测值的时间变化趋势较一致,但同化前后两者的相关性差异不明显;晴天条件下同化前后总辐射模拟值均低于实测值,1月多云条件下多数时段同化后总辐射模拟误差减小不明显,与总云量的改进效果不显著有关。夏季多云、有降水及6月典型降水三种天气条件下同化前后总辐射模拟值与观测值的相关性稍差,同化后两者的相关性较同化前有所改进,尤其是6月典型降水过程改进效果较明显;同化前总辐射模拟误差较大,而同化后误差显著减小,尤其是6月典型降水过程同化后均方根误差和平均相对误差较同化前分别减小了102.6 W m^(-2)和355.9%,最大相对误差减小更显著;同化后总辐射模拟误差小于同化前的比例高达75%,即大部分时刻同化后模拟误差小于同化前。多云和有降水天气过程总辐射模拟效果的显著改进与总云量的改进密切相关,即同化后总云量模拟值增加,云的反射和散射作用增强,导致模拟总辐射减小,即更接近于实测总辐射值。研究结果对于多云和降水天气条件下太阳辐射的模拟效果改进、太阳能资源客观评估以及光伏电站的发电量预测具有一定的科学和实际应用价值。
文摘利用LAPS(Local Analysis and Prediction System)系统同化GPS(Global Positioning System)/PWV(Precipitable Water Vapor)资料,分析GPS/PWV资料对LAPS输出场的影响,并结合WRF模式,将LAPS输出场作为其初始场进行降水预报,进一步考察GPS/PWV资料对降水预报的作用。选取2009年6月28日湖北地区的一次强降水过程,设计三种方案进行试验。结果表明:同化GPS/PWV资料后对LAPS湿度场有显著的改善,而对高度场及风场的作用则不明显;GPS/PWV资料对区域平均可降水量的影响比雷达资料大一个量级;与此同时,利用多种评分方法对6 h累计降水做了检验,分析结果表明同化GPS/PWV资料能够有效地改进WRF模式的初始场,增加丰富的中小尺度信息,并对随后的确定性预报产生正影响。
文摘用雷达等观测资料以及LAPS(Local Analysis and Prediction System)中尺度再分析场资料,对2009年6月14日在河南、安徽等地引发冰雹大风天气的两个强对流系统的形成演变过程中的对流云合并现象进行观测分析。研究表明,不论是单体间的合并还是对流系统间的合并,合并后单体或对流系统都有显著的增强,并且和强对流天气的发生关系密切。安徽整个对流系统的形成经历了"小单体—大单体或积云团—小的对流系统—大的对流系统"多阶段的合并过程,强对流天气发生和对流系统的阵风锋有关,合并过程中阵风锋达到最强;对流单体的合并和低层气流的相互作用有关,是单体自身的出入流和环境引导风共同作用的结果。LAPS中尺度再分析场资料的结果说明层结不稳定、中尺度辐合和垂直风切变是这次强对流系统形成和对流云合并的重要条件。
