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Monitoring models for base flow effect and daily variation of dam seepage elements considering time lag effect 被引量:15
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作者 Shao-wei Wang Ying-li Xu +1 位作者 Chong-shi Gu Teng-fei Bao 《Water Science and Engineering》 EI CAS CSCD 2018年第4期344-354,共11页
Affected by external environmental factors and evolution of dam performance, dam seepage behavior shows nonlinear time-varying characteristics. In this study, to predict and evaluate the long-term development trend an... Affected by external environmental factors and evolution of dam performance, dam seepage behavior shows nonlinear time-varying characteristics. In this study, to predict and evaluate the long-term development trend and short-term fluctuation of the dam seepage behavior, two monitoring models were developed, one for the base flow effect and one for daily variation of dam seepage elements. In the first model, to avoid the influence of the time lag effect on the evaluation of seepage variation with the time effect component of seepage elements, the base values of the seepage element and the reservoir water level were extracted using the wavelet multi-resolution analysis method, and the time effect component was separated by the established base flow effect monitoring model. For the development of the daily variation monitoring model for dam seepage elements, all the previous factors, of which the measured time series prior to the dam seepage element monitoring time may have certain influence on the monitored results, were considered. Those factors that were positively correlated with the analyzed seepage element were initially considered to be the support vector machine(SVM) model input factors, and then the SVM kernel function-based sensitivity analysis was performed to optimize the input factor set and establish the optimized daily variation SVM model. The efficiency and rationality of the two models were verified by case studies of the water level of two piezometric tubes buried under the slope of a concrete gravity dam.Sensitivity analysis of the optimized SVM model shows that the influences of the daily variation of the upstream reservoir water level and rainfall on the daily variation of piezometric tube water level are processes subject to normal distribution. 展开更多
关键词 Dam seepage monitoring model Time lag effect Support vector machine(SVM) Sensitivity analysis Base flow Daily variation Piezometric tube water level
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Closed-form solution for shear lag effects of steel-concrete composite box beams considering shear deformation and slip 被引量:10
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作者 周旺保 蒋丽忠 +1 位作者 刘志杰 刘小洁 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2012年第10期2976-2982,共7页
Based on the consideration of longitudinal warp caused by shear lag effects on concrete slabs and bottom plates of steel beams,shear deformation of steel beams and interface slip between steel beams and concrete slabs... Based on the consideration of longitudinal warp caused by shear lag effects on concrete slabs and bottom plates of steel beams,shear deformation of steel beams and interface slip between steel beams and concrete slabs,the governing differential equations and boundary conditions of the steel-concrete composite box beams under lateral loading were derived using energy-variational method.The closed-form solutions for stress,deflection and slip of box beams under lateral loading were obtained,and the comparison of the analytical results and the experimental results for steel-concrete composite box beams under concentrated loading or uniform loading verifies the closed-form solution.The investigation of the parameters of load effects on composite box beams shows that:1) Slip stiffness has considerable impact on mid-span deflection and end slip when it is comparatively small;the mid-span deflection and end slip decrease significantly with the increase of slip stiffness,but when the slip stiffness reaches a certain value,its impact on mid-span deflection and end slip decreases to be negligible.2) The shear deformation has certain influence on mid-span deflection,and the larger the load is,the greater the influence is.3) The impact of shear deformation on end slip can be neglected.4) The strain of bottom plate of steel beam decreases with the increase of slip stiffness,while the shear lag effect becomes more significant. 展开更多
关键词 steel-concrete composite box beam shear lag effect shear deformation SLIP closed-form solution
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Theoretical and experimental study on shear lag effect of partially cable-stayed bridge 被引量:1
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作者 吴高峰 徐鸿 《Journal of Zhejiang University-Science A(Applied Physics & Engineering)》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2005年第8期875-877,共3页
In order to resolve the traffic congestion problem, many cable-stayed bridges are designed with a large width to span ratio. This results in significant shear lag effect to cause nonuniform stress distribution along t... In order to resolve the traffic congestion problem, many cable-stayed bridges are designed with a large width to span ratio. This results in significant shear lag effect to cause nonuniform stress distribution along the flanges of the beam of bridge. This paper reports study on the shear lag effect of the Lanzhou Xiaoxihu Yellow River Bridge. A 3D finite element model of the bridge was developed and finite element analysis (FEA) was done to obtain the theoretical results. To evaluate the theoretical results, a scaled model was made to conduct static test in laboratory. The experiment results accorded with the results obtained by FEA. It is proved that FEA is an effective method to predict shear lag effect of bridges of this type. 展开更多
关键词 Cable-stayed bridge FEA EXPERIMENTAL Shear lag effect
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PERIODIC AND ALMOST PERIODIC SOLUTIONS FOR A NON-AUTONOMOUS RESPIRATORY DISEASE MODEL WITH A LAG EFFECT 被引量:1
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作者 Lei SHI Longxing QI Sulan ZHAI 《Acta Mathematica Scientia》 SCIE CSCD 2022年第1期187-211,共25页
This paper studies a kind of non-autonomous respiratory disease model with a lag effect.First of all,the permanence and extinction of the system are discussed by using the comparison principle and some differential in... This paper studies a kind of non-autonomous respiratory disease model with a lag effect.First of all,the permanence and extinction of the system are discussed by using the comparison principle and some differential inequality techniques.Second,it assumes that all coefficients of the system are periodic.The existence of positive periodic solutions of the system is proven,based on the continuation theorem in coincidence with the degree theory of Mawhin and Gaines.In the meantime,the global attractivity of positive periodic solutions of the system is obtained by constructing an appropriate Lyapunov functional and using the Razumikin theorem.In addition,the existence and uniform asymptotic stability of almost periodic solutions of the system are analyzed by assuming that all parameters in the model are almost periodic in time.Finally,the theoretical derivation is verified by a numerical simulation. 展开更多
关键词 respiratory disease lag effect periodic solution almost periodic solution Lyapunov functional
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Experimental Study on Shear Lag Effect of Partial Cable-Stayed Bridge and Elasto-Plastic Seismic Analysis
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作者 吴高峰 徐鸿 陈兴冲 《Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong university(Science)》 EI 2005年第2期170-174,共5页
The project of Xiaoxihu Yellow River Bridge in Lanzhou is chosen as partial cable-stayed bridge. To get the shear lag effect and anti-earthquake performance of the actual bridge under various loading conditions, organ... The project of Xiaoxihu Yellow River Bridge in Lanzhou is chosen as partial cable-stayed bridge. To get the shear lag effect and anti-earthquake performance of the actual bridge under various loading conditions, organic glass scaled model was adopted to have an experiment and a theory research at one time. The experiment result is the basically same as the theory calculation which proves the FEA method can well calculate shear lag effect and dynamical performance. As a result, because the bridge is located in a seismic area of 8 degree, an elasto-plastic seismic checking is performed by customized FEA program in this paper. 展开更多
关键词 partial cable-stayed bridge EXPERIMENT shear lag effect elasto-plastic seismic analysis
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Shear Lag Effect for PC Continuous Curved Box-section Girder Bridge under the Moving Vehicular Loads
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作者 Jianqing Bu Jinli Mo 《土木工程与技术(中英文版)》 2013年第2期25-33,共9页
关键词 土木工程 建筑工程 建筑设计 建筑材料
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Closed-form solution to thin-walled box girders considering effects of shear deformation and shear lag 被引量:18
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作者 周旺保 蒋丽忠 +1 位作者 刘志杰 刘小洁 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2012年第9期2650-2655,共6页
Considering three longitudinal displacement functions and uniform axial displacement functions for shear lag effect and uniform axial deformation of thin-walled box girder with varying depths,a simple and efficient me... Considering three longitudinal displacement functions and uniform axial displacement functions for shear lag effect and uniform axial deformation of thin-walled box girder with varying depths,a simple and efficient method with high precision to analyze the shear lag effect of thin-walled box girders was proposed.The governing differential equations and boundary conditions of the box girder under lateral loading were derived based on the energy-variational method,and closed-form solutions to stress and deflection corresponding to lateral loading were obtained.Analysis and calculations were carried out with respect to a trapezoidal box girder under concentrated loading or uniform loading and a rectangular box girder under concentrated loading.The analytical results were compared with numerical solutions derived according to the high order finite strip element method and the experimental results.The investigation shows that the closed-form solution is in good agreement with the numerical solutions derived according to the high order finite strip method and the experimental results,and has good stability.Because of the shear lag effect,the stress in cross-section centroid is no longer zero,thus it is not reasonable enough to assume that the strain in cross-section centroid is zero without considering uniform axial deformation. 展开更多
关键词 shear lag effect thin-walled box girder energy-variational method shear deformation closed-form solution
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Effects of time lag and stress loading rate on permeability in low permeability reservoirs 被引量:4
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作者 WANG Rui YUE Xiang-an +2 位作者 ZHANG Wei TAN Xi-qun ZHANG Yan 《Mining Science and Technology》 EI CAS 2009年第4期526-530,共5页
In order to study the effect of time lag and stress loading rates on rock deformation,the conventional stepped stress loading mode was changed into a continuous mode to investigate the effect of effective pressure on ... In order to study the effect of time lag and stress loading rates on rock deformation,the conventional stepped stress loading mode was changed into a continuous mode to investigate the effect of effective pressure on permeability and porosity.The time lag effect of rock deformation illustrating the relationship between changes in permeability and steady time was studied.Permeability reduction ratios were measured under different stress loading rates which were achieved by different pump rate settings.The results show that permeability and porosity gradually decrease with increases in effective pressure.Permeability at high effective pressure attains stability quickly.Steady times at low effective pressure are very long.Reduction in permeability at lower stress loading rates is small,while,in contrast,it is large at high stress loading rates. 展开更多
关键词 low permeability stress sensitivity time lag effect stress loading rate
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Time Lag Effect of Supply Chain Management on Firm Performance
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作者 Lu Xiao Quan Zhu +1 位作者 Xiaolin Xu Christoph Wäger 《Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering》 SCIE EI CSCD 2021年第3期321-338,共18页
The objective of this paper is to identify time lag effect in the relationship between supply chain management and financial performance.We hypothesize that firms with higher supply chain management capability are ass... The objective of this paper is to identify time lag effect in the relationship between supply chain management and financial performance.We hypothesize that firms with higher supply chain management capability are associated with higher financial performance and the impact would last longer.In addition,we introduce two contextual variables,ownership and market orientation,to detect the moderating effect of ownership structure and organizational culture,respectively.We use firm-level empirical data from 1,131 public Chinese manufacturing firms for the 2010–2019 period to investigate the effect and the result shows that there is a two-year time lag effect in the relationship,which means the positive impact of current supply chain management would last for three years.Furthermore,we find evidence that supply chain management in non-state-owned firms is more efficient and its positive financial impact would last longer than that in state-owned enterprises.Finally,we indicate that market-orientation can’t moderate the relationship between supply chain management and financial performance. 展开更多
关键词 Supply chain management financial performance time lag effect OWNERSHIP market orientation
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Effect of different cold air intensities and their lagged effects on outpatient visits for respiratory illnesses in Handan in different seasons 被引量:2
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作者 Xingshan Zhang Guiqin Fu +4 位作者 Liang Zhao Ji Wang Caimeng Liang Juanhuai Wang Meng Li 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2024年第1期39-44,共6页
本文利用2016年到2019年邯郸市气象要素和呼吸系统疾病门诊数据,分析了不同季节不同强度的冷空气过程及其对呼吸系统疾病的影响,结果显示:尽管呼吸系统疾病在冬季高发,夏季最低,但冷空气对呼吸系统疾病的影响在夏,春季最大,就诊人数分... 本文利用2016年到2019年邯郸市气象要素和呼吸系统疾病门诊数据,分析了不同季节不同强度的冷空气过程及其对呼吸系统疾病的影响,结果显示:尽管呼吸系统疾病在冬季高发,夏季最低,但冷空气对呼吸系统疾病的影响在夏,春季最大,就诊人数分别在冷空气日后两天和五天增加18.4%和13.3%,而冬季就诊人数在冷空气日后三天仅增加3.2%.冷空气对疾病影响的滞后时间在夏,秋和冬季随冷空气强度的增加而减少,而春季的滞后时间总是很长.这些发现可为科学应对气候异常导致的人群健康风险提供针对性依据. 展开更多
关键词 冷空气过程 降温幅度 呼吸系统疾病 滞后效应
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Study on the spatial differences and its time lag effect on climatic factors of the vegetation in the Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region 被引量:12
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作者 BAO YaJing SONG GuoBao +5 位作者 LI ZhengHai GAO JiXi LU HaiYan WANG HaiMei CHENG Yan XU Tian 《Chinese Science Bulletin》 SCIE EI CAS 2007年第A02期42-49,共8页
这篇文章包括温度和降水分析 NDVI 和二个气象学的数据的关联,并且探查回答植被的敏感到温度和降水变化的空间模式。由构造 NDVIr 索引,在在纵的范围峡区域(LRGR ) 的植被盖子和陆地使用之间的关系被揭示。结论如下:(1 ) 时间落后那... 这篇文章包括温度和降水分析 NDVI 和二个气象学的数据的关联,并且探查回答植被的敏感到温度和降水变化的空间模式。由构造 NDVIr 索引,在在纵的范围峡区域(LRGR ) 的植被盖子和陆地使用之间的关系被揭示。结论如下:(1 ) 时间落后那植被回答到温度和降水变化的效果被证明。不同区域有相应于最大的关联系数的不同延期时间。根据降水和温度联合的反应时间,也就是,三种温度降水形式被定义在一样的时间的降水和温度,在温度以前的降水和在降水以前的温度。(2 ) 敏感的空间分发,哪个对温度的植被回答,被几个高、低的散布关联中心描绘。与温度,二个感觉迟钝的区域和二条敏感的带不同被形成介绍植被的反应给降水。(3 ) NDVIr 被构造,它能完美地在 LRGR 反映在气象学的因素和陆地使用状况之间的相应关系。 展开更多
关键词 纵向岭谷区 空间差异性 气候 植被
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中国城镇化时空动力的测度与机制分析
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作者 刘成昆 伍一达 《经济问题》 北大核心 2026年第2期120-128,共9页
在城镇化进程中隐含着时间和空间动力机制,关系城镇化的提升与发展。以中国省域尺度城镇化数据为研究基础,系统探究其时空动力机制。研究表明,时空滞后机制是城镇化核心驱动力,其中一阶时间动力边际贡献最显著;时空动力效应遵循“记忆... 在城镇化进程中隐含着时间和空间动力机制,关系城镇化的提升与发展。以中国省域尺度城镇化数据为研究基础,系统探究其时空动力机制。研究表明,时空滞后机制是城镇化核心驱动力,其中一阶时间动力边际贡献最显著;时空动力效应遵循“记忆性衰减”与“距离衰减”规律,随滞后期延长、空间距离增加逐步减弱;城镇化已形成“时间—空间—人文”复合动力体系,与经济发展水平、开放度、人力资本等因素协同作用。当前中国城镇化正处于从“高速增长”向“高质量发展”的关键转型期,政策制定应尊重时空动力规律,构建多元协同政策体系,注重政策短期效果与长期目标的时空平衡、区域资源优化配置与协调发展,聚焦近期社会经济核心驱动因素,同时强化经济发展水平、开放度、人力资本等多维度协同,通过跨部门跨区域协同推进政策精准落地,助力城镇化高质量发展。 展开更多
关键词 城镇化 时空动力 滞后效应 省域尺度
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路面水泥混凝土碳汇环境效益的时滞分析与动态核算
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作者 杨兆宁 张端 +4 位作者 孙博学 高峰 李小青 聂祚仁 崔素萍 《硅酸盐通报》 北大核心 2026年第1期30-39,共10页
水泥材料生命周期内具有显著的碳汇潜力,但目前仍缺乏具体的碳汇环境效益核算方法。本文构建了基于动态指标的路面水泥混凝土碳汇时滞分析模型,系统评估了路面水泥混凝土全生命周期内的碳汇时间分布及其环境效益,并提出了用于修正静态... 水泥材料生命周期内具有显著的碳汇潜力,但目前仍缺乏具体的碳汇环境效益核算方法。本文构建了基于动态指标的路面水泥混凝土碳汇时滞分析模型,系统评估了路面水泥混凝土全生命周期内的碳汇时间分布及其环境效益,并提出了用于修正静态碳核算结果的时间因子α与减排偏移量β。结果表明,100年内水泥材料碳汇总量占水泥生产排放量的22.18%。相比动态方法,采用传统方法高估了53.8%的碳汇效益。此外,时滞分析得到,100年时限内α为0.65,β为38 614.79 kgCO_(2)e,水泥碳汇的环境收益可通过α、β进行快速修正。研究结果可为水泥材料碳汇精准计量提供方法依据,对长寿命基础设施系统的碳管理策略制定具有重要意义。 展开更多
关键词 路面水泥混凝土 碳汇 时滞效应 动态生命周期评价 时间因子 长寿命系统
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Analysis of free vibration characteristic of steel-concrete composite box-girder considering shear lag and slip 被引量:9
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作者 周旺保 蒋丽忠 余志武 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2013年第9期2570-2577,共8页
Based on Hamilton principle,the governing differential equations and the corresponding boundary conditions of steel-concrete composite box girder with consideration of the shear lag effect meeting self equilibrated st... Based on Hamilton principle,the governing differential equations and the corresponding boundary conditions of steel-concrete composite box girder with consideration of the shear lag effect meeting self equilibrated stress,shear deformation,slip,as well as rotational inertia were induced.Therefore,natural frequency equations were obtained for the boundary types,such as simple support,cantilever,continuous girder and fixed support at two ends.The ANSYS finite element solutions were compared with the analytical solutions by calculation examples and the validity of the proposed approach was verified,which also shows the correctness of longitudinal warping displacement functions.Some meaningful conclusions for engineering design were obtained.The decrease extent of each order natural frequency of the steel-concrete composite box-girder is great under action of the shear lag effect.The shear-lag effect of steel-concrete composite box girder increases when frequency order rises,and increases while span-width ratio decreases.The proposed approach provides theoretical basis for further research of free vibration characteristics of steel-concrete composite box-girder. 展开更多
关键词 steel-concrete composite box-girder shear lag effect shear deformation SLIP free vibration
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部分抗剪连接钢-混凝土组合梁负弯矩区剪力滞后效应研究
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作者 罗达 谭菁 +2 位作者 邢国华 李亚坤 苗鹏勇 《东南大学学报(自然科学版)》 北大核心 2026年第1期70-79,共10页
为研究部分抗剪连接钢-混凝土组合梁(简称组合梁)负弯矩区剪力滞后效应,基于桁架类比理论并结合界面剪力均匀分布假设,建立了理论计算模型,阐明了其力学形成机理。通过DIANA软件建立数值模型,并利用既有试验数据验证模型合理性,进一步... 为研究部分抗剪连接钢-混凝土组合梁(简称组合梁)负弯矩区剪力滞后效应,基于桁架类比理论并结合界面剪力均匀分布假设,建立了理论计算模型,阐明了其力学形成机理。通过DIANA软件建立数值模型,并利用既有试验数据验证模型合理性,进一步分析主要参数对剪力滞后效应的影响规律,并对理论模型进行了校核。结果表明,混凝土板开裂后,剪力滞后效应随荷载增加而增强,直至钢筋屈服,随后迅速减弱,但在峰值荷载下依然明显。钢筋屈服前,剪力滞后效应随剪力连接程度的提升而愈发显著,峰值荷载下趋势相反。除板厚外,其余参数在不同剪力连接程度下的影响规律基本一致。此外,剪力滞后效应随距零弯矩点距离增加而增强。所建理论模型可有效预测开裂后各参数对剪力滞后效应的影响规律,且在屈服荷载下计算最为准确。当实际板宽接近我国现行规范规定的翼板有效宽度时,组合梁负弯矩区剪力滞后效应被普遍低估。 展开更多
关键词 组合结构 部分抗剪连接组合梁 剪力滞后效应 负弯矩区 数值模型 计算模型
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基于挠度影响线考虑刚度退化的简支箱梁剪力滞效应
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作者 尹嘉豪 邬晓光 +1 位作者 张浩 郭双喜 《沈阳大学学报(自然科学版)》 2026年第1期76-82,共7页
为计算刚度退化后简支箱梁的弯曲正应力,基于材料力学挠度影响线差值,对损伤位置和损伤程度进行准确识别。选取四阶抛物线函数作为箱梁剪力滞翘曲位移函数,并将刚度退化系数代入剪力滞计算表达式中,应用最小势能原理推导出箱梁截面刚度... 为计算刚度退化后简支箱梁的弯曲正应力,基于材料力学挠度影响线差值,对损伤位置和损伤程度进行准确识别。选取四阶抛物线函数作为箱梁剪力滞翘曲位移函数,并将刚度退化系数代入剪力滞计算表达式中,应用最小势能原理推导出箱梁截面刚度退化后的主梁弯曲正应力表达式。通过建立3组不同损伤截面刚度的有限元模型(0.8 EI、0.7EI、0.6EI),运用所推导表达式计算得到的弯曲正应力与有限元损伤模型模拟值进行对比,结果表明二者吻合较好,从而验证了本文推导的表达式的合理性。分析可知,当刚度退化至0.6 EI,截面测点应力增幅最高达到了8.9%,应当予以关注。 展开更多
关键词 剪力滞效应 翘曲位移函数 变分法 刚度退化 挠度影响线 有限元法
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固定宽度结构等离子体刻蚀中Lag效应的数值模拟
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作者 张鉴 黄庆安 李伟华 《传感技术学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2006年第1期93-96,共4页
为了对传感器设计与制造中的刻蚀过程进行研究,本文利用等离子体~硅表面交互作用的动力学机制和算法的优化,建立了一种时空归一化的等离子体刻蚀硅片二维模型,并利用该模型,从固定结构尺寸的角度对等离子体刻蚀中的重要现象——La... 为了对传感器设计与制造中的刻蚀过程进行研究,本文利用等离子体~硅表面交互作用的动力学机制和算法的优化,建立了一种时空归一化的等离子体刻蚀硅片二维模型,并利用该模型,从固定结构尺寸的角度对等离子体刻蚀中的重要现象——Lag效应进行了揭示,证明在固定宽度结构的刻蚀中存在刻蚀速率随时间变小的现象。同时还对刻蚀算法中的时间步长选择问题进行了讨论,从数值计算的角度提出了最优时间步长的概念并加以验证。为工艺过程的数值模拟及实验提供参考和指导。 展开更多
关键词 等离子体刻蚀 lag效应 时间步长 数值模拟
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天津市植被演变特征及其对水热效应的时滞分析
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作者 吴华 李佳潼 +4 位作者 徐悦 朱嘉琦 郭齐韵 张鑫 谢雪 《长江科学院院报》 北大核心 2026年第1期66-75,共10页
明确天津市植被活动的动态变化及其对水热条件响应的时滞性,可为区域生态环境治理和持续发展提供科学依据。以2000—2022年的天津市MODIS13数据集、气温和降雨数据集为研究对象,采用Hurst指数、Theil-Sen趋势分析、M-K检验、地理信息系... 明确天津市植被活动的动态变化及其对水热条件响应的时滞性,可为区域生态环境治理和持续发展提供科学依据。以2000—2022年的天津市MODIS13数据集、气温和降雨数据集为研究对象,采用Hurst指数、Theil-Sen趋势分析、M-K检验、地理信息系统(GIS)空间分析和时滞偏相关分析等方法,探究近23 a天津市植被动态变化特征及其水热效应。结果表明:(1)天津市年归一化植被指数(NDVI)均值为0.782,年内波动趋势与气温、降雨的变化存在一定的正向联系;(2)全市Hurst指数均值为0.493,59.62%的区域NDVI向恶性发展;(3)天津市分别有10.943%和61.408%的区域与气温和降雨存在时滞效应,植被对气温的平均滞后时长为2.737个月,对降雨的平均滞后时间为1.016个月;(4)不同植被类型对气温和降雨的响应有所不同,阔叶林对降雨的响应时间最短,草本植物覆盖的响应时间最长;稀疏植被对气温的响应最快,阔叶林对其响应最慢。近23 a天津地区植被整体覆盖水平较好,呈现过去退化但未来改善的趋势。降雨与植被相关性更高,气温的滞后时间更长。 展开更多
关键词 水热效应 归一化植被指数(NDVI) 偏相关分析 气温 降雨 时滞效应 天津市
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基于可视图算法的能源价格波动与区域碳价波动研究
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作者 许子墁 张玉洁 亢泉乂 《价格月刊》 北大核心 2026年第1期31-40,共10页
现阶段,加快推进中国绿色转型步伐,有效防控碳市场的潜在风险是当前经济社会亟待解决的重要议题。选取2020年3月30日—2023年8月31日的8个碳市场的国家碳价和能源市场的结算价格作为样本数据,基于可视图算法(VG模型)得到的网络中心性指... 现阶段,加快推进中国绿色转型步伐,有效防控碳市场的潜在风险是当前经济社会亟待解决的重要议题。选取2020年3月30日—2023年8月31日的8个碳市场的国家碳价和能源市场的结算价格作为样本数据,基于可视图算法(VG模型)得到的网络中心性指数,运用VAR模型,分析不同碳市场和能源市场之间的滞后效应。结果表明:第一,碳市场和能源市场的价格波动传导效应存在2~5个交易日的滞后期。第二,不同能源价格对不同碳价格的影响方向和程度不同,焦煤价格波动与深圳碳价波动在第二期呈负相关。通过识别能源价格波动对碳价格波动的滞后影响,为有效防控碳市场的潜在风险提供了新方向。 展开更多
关键词 VG模型 VAR模型 滞后效应
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顾及时滞与累积效应的中国植被时空演变及其对气候-人类活动的响应机制
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作者 孙语晗 郭兵 孙晓双 《生态学报》 北大核心 2026年第2期705-720,共16页
时滞和累积效应对植被归一化植被指数(NDVI)时空动态的影响至关重要,深入理解其作用机制对于陆地生态系统的管理与可持续发展具有重要意义。基于MODIS NDVI遥感数据和气象数据,利用Theil-Sen趋势分析和Mann-Kendall检验探讨了2001-2020... 时滞和累积效应对植被归一化植被指数(NDVI)时空动态的影响至关重要,深入理解其作用机制对于陆地生态系统的管理与可持续发展具有重要意义。基于MODIS NDVI遥感数据和气象数据,利用Theil-Sen趋势分析和Mann-Kendall检验探讨了2001-2020年间中国植被NDVI的时空变化特征,并进一步通过引入气候因子的时滞与累积效应,结合偏相关分析和改进的残差分析,全面评估气候变化和人类活动对植被动态的综合驱动机制,突出气候因子的时间响应特征及其对植被变化的作用。结果表明:(1)2001-2020年间,中国植被NDVI整体呈波动上升趋势,空间分布表现为东部高、西部低,东北、华北和中南地区增幅显著,西北及高寒区较低;未来约13.84%的区域将持续改善,26.15%的区域可能出现退化。(2)NDVI对气温与降水的响应存在显著的时滞与累积效应,气温和降水的最佳时滞分别为0.199个月和0.201个月,累积时间分别为1.152个月和1.483个月。(3)79.41%的区域NDVI与气温极显著正相关,64.88%与降水极显著正相关,气温的长期影响大于降水。(4)NDVI增长区域中,80.68%由气候变化和人类活动共同驱动,减少区域中,81.60%主要由人类活动单独驱动,表明人类活动在植被变化中的重要作用。 展开更多
关键词 植被归一化植被指数(NDVI) 时滞效应 累积效应 气候变化 人类活动 残差分析
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