An accurate short-term wind speed prediction algorithm based on the efficient kernel ridge pseudo inverse neural network （KRPINN） variants is proposed in this paper. The use of nonlinear kernel functions in pseudo i...An accurate short-term wind speed prediction algorithm based on the efficient kernel ridge pseudo inverse neural network （KRPINN） variants is proposed in this paper. The use of nonlinear kernel functions in pseudo inverse neural networks eliminates the trial and error approach of choosing the number of hidden layer neurons and their activation functions. The robustness of the proposed method has been validated in comparison with other models such as pseudo inverse radial basis function （PIRBF） and Legendre tanh activation function based neural network, i.e., PILNNT, whose input weights to the hidden layer weights are optimized using an adaptive firefly algorithm, i.e., FFA. However, since the individual kernel functions based KRPINN may not be able to produce accurate forecasts under chaotically varying wind speed conditions, a linear combination of individual kernel functions is used to build the multi kernel ridge pseudo inverse neural network （MK-RPINN） for providing improved forecasting accuracy, generalization, and stability of the wind speed prediction model. Several case studies have been presented to validate the accuracy of the short-term wind speed prediction models using the real world wind speed data from a wind farm in the Wyoming State of USA over time horizons varying from 10 minutes to 5 hours.展开更多
滚动轴承是机械设备中的常见关键部件,准确预测其剩余使用寿命对机械设备的安全稳定运行至关重要。针对目前轴承寿命预测存在的轴承退化特征不明显、模型泛化能力差以及数据长期依赖关系难以捕捉的问题,提出基于时频域信号优化器(Time-F...滚动轴承是机械设备中的常见关键部件,准确预测其剩余使用寿命对机械设备的安全稳定运行至关重要。针对目前轴承寿命预测存在的轴承退化特征不明显、模型泛化能力差以及数据长期依赖关系难以捕捉的问题,提出基于时频域信号优化器(Time-Frequency domain signal Ratio Optimizer,TFRO)的多重膨胀多核时间卷积网络(Multi inflated Multi kernel Time Convolutional Network,Mi-MkTCN)模型。TFRO优化器为了精准记忆重要信息,在每一个时间节点上,将过去信息和当前信息重组,其中过去信息中的重要的时频域特征经过了有比例的分配。Mi-MkTCN利用多重膨胀确保重要特征不丢失,再利用多核时间卷积网络实现对不同尺度特征的提取。最终的消融对比实验验证了改进方法的有效性,模型的平均绝对误差、均方误差及均方根误差指标分别为0.00145、0.05069和0.12045。实验结果表明,所提方法显著提升了轴承剩余使用寿命的预测精度,为轴承剩余使用寿命预测提供了高精度、高鲁棒性的解决方案。展开更多
文摘An accurate short-term wind speed prediction algorithm based on the efficient kernel ridge pseudo inverse neural network （KRPINN） variants is proposed in this paper. The use of nonlinear kernel functions in pseudo inverse neural networks eliminates the trial and error approach of choosing the number of hidden layer neurons and their activation functions. The robustness of the proposed method has been validated in comparison with other models such as pseudo inverse radial basis function （PIRBF） and Legendre tanh activation function based neural network, i.e., PILNNT, whose input weights to the hidden layer weights are optimized using an adaptive firefly algorithm, i.e., FFA. However, since the individual kernel functions based KRPINN may not be able to produce accurate forecasts under chaotically varying wind speed conditions, a linear combination of individual kernel functions is used to build the multi kernel ridge pseudo inverse neural network （MK-RPINN） for providing improved forecasting accuracy, generalization, and stability of the wind speed prediction model. Several case studies have been presented to validate the accuracy of the short-term wind speed prediction models using the real world wind speed data from a wind farm in the Wyoming State of USA over time horizons varying from 10 minutes to 5 hours.
文摘滚动轴承是机械设备中的常见关键部件,准确预测其剩余使用寿命对机械设备的安全稳定运行至关重要。针对目前轴承寿命预测存在的轴承退化特征不明显、模型泛化能力差以及数据长期依赖关系难以捕捉的问题,提出基于时频域信号优化器(Time-Frequency domain signal Ratio Optimizer,TFRO)的多重膨胀多核时间卷积网络(Multi inflated Multi kernel Time Convolutional Network,Mi-MkTCN)模型。TFRO优化器为了精准记忆重要信息,在每一个时间节点上,将过去信息和当前信息重组,其中过去信息中的重要的时频域特征经过了有比例的分配。Mi-MkTCN利用多重膨胀确保重要特征不丢失,再利用多核时间卷积网络实现对不同尺度特征的提取。最终的消融对比实验验证了改进方法的有效性,模型的平均绝对误差、均方误差及均方根误差指标分别为0.00145、0.05069和0.12045。实验结果表明,所提方法显著提升了轴承剩余使用寿命的预测精度,为轴承剩余使用寿命预测提供了高精度、高鲁棒性的解决方案。
文摘针对盾构姿态预测模型存在易过拟合、预测精度低的问题,提出一种基于融合注意力机制的盾构姿态组合预测模型。为强化有效特征的提取,抑制冗余特征信息的表达,引入基于选择性卷积核网络(selective kernel networks,SKNet)的特征注意力机制提取网络,消除固定尺寸卷积核带来的限制,并自适应形成带有注意力的特征映射。为更好地捕捉长期信息和特征模式,通过双向长短期记忆网络(bidirectional long short-term memory,BiLSTM)、门控循环单元(gated recurrent unit, GRU)得到2组隐含输出结果,再利用多头注意力机制,捕获组合模型输出的隐含特征与模型输出的盾构姿态之间的依赖关系,进一步提高预测模型对重要隐含特征的信息抓捕能力;同时,为解决地质勘察钻孔数据连续性差、精确性不足,难以应用于机器学习模型训练的问题,将基于人工先验知识的二级特征引入模型特征输入,提升模型对地层信息的感知能力。最后,基于广州地铁12号线官洲站—大学城北站盾构实例,对模型不同参数结构下的性能进行研究,并进行对比试验验证模型性能,采用可解释性试验评估特征对预测结果的影响。试验结果表明,相比其他预测模型,所提出的预测模型优越性更好,预测精度更高,解决了长时间序列高特征维度数据在传统模型下易过拟合且预测精度较低的问题。
