China’s path to modernization,which embodies a unique developmental model characterized by high-quality development,common prosperity,harmony with nature,and peaceful coexistence,is a multifaceted process that advanc...China’s path to modernization,which embodies a unique developmental model characterized by high-quality development,common prosperity,harmony with nature,and peaceful coexistence,is a multifaceted process that advances progress on multiple fronts.This paper applies two analytical lenses to the study of intergovernmental fiscal relations:multi-level governance,where different levels of government interact,and multi-objective decision-making,where multiple goals are pursued simultaneously.From this perspective,it puts forward three core propositions.First,the evolution of fiscal relations is shaped primarily by the central government’s need to balance incentivization,coordination,and control.Second,these relations are constrained by objective factors such as the output elasticity of loacl government actions,cost coefficients,externalities,and uncertainty.Third,the effectiveness of both central and local governments depends on the design of fiscal relations,as well as on their objectives,the output elasticity of actions,and costs.In essence,effective intergovernmental fiscal relations require a balance between centralized leadership and local initiative.Using this framework,the paper examines how changes in China’s fiscal system have influenced modernization across different historical periods,offering a theoretical model tailored to China’s national context.展开更多
CHINA IOMed Inauguration Ceremony Held The inauguration ceremony of the International Organisation for Mediation(IOMed),headquartered in China’s Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,was held on 20 October,marking ...CHINA IOMed Inauguration Ceremony Held The inauguration ceremony of the International Organisation for Mediation(IOMed),headquartered in China’s Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,was held on 20 October,marking a significant milestone in global conflict resolution.The IOMed is the world’s first intergovernmental international legal organisation dedicated to resolving international disputes through mediation.展开更多
In the context of the era of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,clarifying the emission patterns of non-CO_(2)Greenhouse Gas(GHG)from agricultural sources is of practical significance to China’s implementation of g...In the context of the era of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,clarifying the emission patterns of non-CO_(2)Greenhouse Gas(GHG)from agricultural sources is of practical significance to China’s implementation of greenhouse gas emission reduction policies.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)coefficient method was used to calculate non-CO_(2)GHG emissions from agricultural sources in 122 counties in Hunan Province,China,from 2010 to 2020,and the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of emission intensity were analyzed.The Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence,and Technology(STRIPAT)model forecasted the prospective evolution of non-CO_(2)GHG emissions from agricultural sources at the county level under various scenarios from 2030 to 2050.The results demonstrated a general decline in non-CO_(2)GHG emissions from agricultural sources within the study area,with 75.41%of counties exhibiting a reduction in emissions.Geographically,emissions were higher in the Dongting Lake area and central Hengyang.The emission intensity per unit of agricultural added value and the intensity per unit of agricultural land area showed an overall downward trend.Spatially,the emission intensity per unit of farmland area in a few counties(cities,districts)in southern Hunan was still relatively high.By forecasting the non-CO_(2)GHG emissions from agricultural sources,the majority of counties(cities and districts)demonstrated a gradual decline in emissions,suggesting that agricultural production had the potential to reduce emissions in the future,while also facing certain pressure to reduce emissions.It is recommended that Hunan Province formulate agricultural carbon emission reduction policies that take regional development differences into account.This would provide a reference for future agricultural carbon emission reduction research in the whole country.展开更多
The European Union has been experiencing the whole set of serious crises undermining European integration. The most important ones have been： financial and economic crisis, immigration crisis, crisis of nationalistic...The European Union has been experiencing the whole set of serious crises undermining European integration. The most important ones have been： financial and economic crisis, immigration crisis, crisis of nationalistic radicalization, Brexit, crisis of security caused by terrorism, strengthening of the Islamic State （ISIS）, and destabilization of regions around Europe （mainly in the Middle East）. The main thesis of this article is that all of them have weakened not only the EU as a whole but also the Member States. This has caused serious consequences being the main topics of this analysis, namely, （1） the value of solidarity lying upon the European integration concept being challenged by the crises; and （2） undermining by the crises the EU＇s pursuit of achieving the competitive advantage, stated in the strategy Europe 2020. The lack of solidarity is strongly visible in the EU Member States＇ differentiated attitudes towards the crises the EU has been facing. The paper will focus on analysis of solidarity in the light of intergovernmental approach supported by constructivism. The main research questions are： （1） To what extent have the EU crises strengthened the intergovernmental approach in the EU integration？ （2） How has the meaning and scope of the solidarity as the main EU value changed over time in the EU＇s citizens perception due to the EU crises？ （3） To what extent have strong intergovernmental approach and instrumentalization of the solidarity value influenced pursuit for competitive advantage in the EU？ （4） Does solidarity have a potential to contribute to efficient reform of the EU leading to strengthening its striving for competitive advantage in the future？ The main research approach is intergovernmentalism while the dominating methods are a process-tracing supported by a systemic method. The main conclusion of the article is necessity for redefining the rule of solidarity in order to efficiently strive for competitive advantage.展开更多
Carbon footprint analysis is a method to quantify the life cycle Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) emissions and identify the measure to reduce climate change impacts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has id...Carbon footprint analysis is a method to quantify the life cycle Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) emissions and identify the measure to reduce climate change impacts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has identified that the global warming and climate change which is one of the most important issues in the domain of environment are caused by the excessive emission of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) mainly constituting Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4) and Nitrous oxide (N2O). The municipal wastewater treatment plant receives wastewater for treatment and finally discharges the treated effluent. The emissions of GHG during the treatment of wastewater as well as during the treatment process of sludge and also for energy generation are known to be on-site GHG emissions. Off-site GHG emissions are generated due to transportation and disposal of sludge, off-site energy and chemical production. In Puducherry, the municipal wastewater is being treated using oxidation ponds, Upflow Anaerobic Sludge Blanket (UASB) and Sequencing Batch Reactor (SBR). Wastewater treatment using Sequencing Batch Reactor (SBR) technology is one of the state-of-the art wastewater management systems. In this technology equalization, biological treatment and secondary clarification are performed in a single reactor in a time control sequence. The emissions of GHG from the Oxidation ponds of 12.5 MLD, UASB reactor of 2.5 MLD and SBR of 17 MLD were assessed based on the IPCC guidelines and the total emissions of GHG in terms of equivalent of CO2 were compared. The performance of the SBR is more efficient and the emissions of GHG are less than the emissions in the UASB as well as in oxidation ponds. The emission of GHG in SBR is about 60% of the existing treatment systems of oxidation ponds and UASB thus a reduction of 40% GHG emission could be achieved.展开更多
Developing countries sometimes request the assistance of intergovernmental organizations to help write new laws, policies, and regulations where they did not exist, to review draft legislation, or to assist in the upd...Developing countries sometimes request the assistance of intergovernmental organizations to help write new laws, policies, and regulations where they did not exist, to review draft legislation, or to assist in the updating and amendment of outdated laws and policies. This paper seeks to examine the extent to which policy advice provided by intergovernmental organizations differs depending upon the provider, and assesses the extent to which developing countries are conscious of those biases when they request technical assistance. Advice on the sensitive topics of intellectual property, investment, and competition that have been provided to policy makers of developing countries by different multilateral agencies is examined. On the supply side, the paper draws upon advisory reports published by the secretariats of international organizations. On the demand side, this review is complemented by a survey of the extent to which those requesting advice in developing countries are conscious of policy bias when they ask for advisory services.展开更多
From February 18-21, 2014, a panel of experts, which was established by a resolution of the United Nations Economic and Social Council to draft exemplary strategies and implementation measures for eradicating violence...From February 18-21, 2014, a panel of experts, which was established by a resolution of the United Nations Economic and Social Council to draft exemplary strategies and implementation measures for eradicating violence against children in crime prevention and criminal judicature, convened in Bangkok, Thailand, for an intergovernmental experts meeting mainly to discuss the draft. After general discussion, delib- eration by the presidium and detailed negotiations, the meeting produced the report, ＂Exemplary Strategies and Implementation Measures for Eradicating Violence Against Children in Crime Prevention and Criminal Judicature.＂展开更多
The establishment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)and the publication of its first assessment report(FAR)in 1990 marked the commencement of the international climate policy.Two years later,in 199...The establishment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)and the publication of its first assessment report(FAR)in 1990 marked the commencement of the international climate policy.Two years later,in 1992,the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)was signed at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro(Brazil),which offers a crucial basis for international climate negotiations.Since 1995,the last 2 months of each calendar year have been earmarked as the intensive negotiation period for a UNFCCC Conference of the Parties(COP).展开更多
The International Organization for Mediation(IOMed),the world’s first intergovernmental legal organization dedicated to the settlement of international disputes through mediation,was established in Hong Kong Special ...The International Organization for Mediation(IOMed),the world’s first intergovernmental legal organization dedicated to the settlement of international disputes through mediation,was established in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region on May 30.First proposed in 2022 by China along with 19 other countries,the organization has drawn broad initial sup-port and participation,with representatives of nearly 60 countries from across Asia,Africa,Latin America and Europe,along with about 20 international organizations,including the United Nations,attending the signing ceremony of the Convention on the Establishment of the International Organization for Mediation.展开更多
Universal access to China＇s social welfare system involves a process of diffusion from localities to the whole country on the basis of social policy innovations in which intergovernmental relations play a key role as...Universal access to China＇s social welfare system involves a process of diffusion from localities to the whole country on the basis of social policy innovations in which intergovernmental relations play a key role as a facilitator. The rapid establishment of the urban subsistence allowance system in more than 200 cities throughout the country in seven years （1993-1999） serves as a case for our empirical analysis of the diffusion mechanism of social policy innovations at different levels of government. Our findings show, firstly, that in adopting a new social policy, city governments have to respond to the social desire of local citizens while keeping fiscal constraints in mind; at the same time, they are affected by administrative orders from higher-level governments and the vertical fiscal relations between governments at different levels, and are also subject to competitive pressures from other cities at the same level. Secondly, city governments＇ policy innovations offer an opportunity for higher levels of government to learn from their experience. Thirdly, central government orders exert both a direct and indirect influence upon city governments, with provincial orders acting as intermediaries. And lastly, there is a clear difference in the time lag effect of orders from the central government and those at provincial level upon city governments＇ policy adoption.展开更多
Although China＇s asymmetric fiscal decentralization system has been criticized for many years, there have been few studies giving direct evidence of its negative incentives on local government spending policies. By i...Although China＇s asymmetric fiscal decentralization system has been criticized for many years, there have been few studies giving direct evidence of its negative incentives on local government spending policies. By introducing the mechanism of asymmetric decentralization and fiscal transfers to the objective function of local government, this paper studies the incentive effects of asymmetric decentralization and fiscal transfers on spending policies of local governments, and uses the provincial panel data to carry out an empirical test. The conclusion shows that the asymmetric decentralization significantly weakens the incentives of local government to increase social expenditure, and as a solution to asymmetric decentralization, fiscal transfers fail to play a good role. Due to the relatively large income effect, the financing mechanism of fiscal transfers not only significantly reduces the incentives of local government to provide social public goods, but also weakens the constraint effect of fiscal competition on expenditure policies of local governments because of the increase in the relative cost. Although the distribution mechanism of fiscal transfers has a significant positive incentive to local government in regions where the net inflow of fiscal resources is more than zero, because of common pooling effects, the comprehensive effects of fiscal transfers in the distribution of incentives of local governments to provide social public goods are negative in all regions.展开更多
Climate change has attracted significant attention due to its increasing impacts on various aspects of the world,and future climate projections are of vital importance for associated adaptation and mitigation,particul...Climate change has attracted significant attention due to its increasing impacts on various aspects of the world,and future climate projections are of vital importance for associated adaptation and mitigation,particularly at the regional scale.However,the skill level of the model projections over China in the past more than ten years remains unknown.In this study,we retrospectively investigate the skill of climate models within the Third(TAR),Fourth(AR4),and Fifth(AR5)Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)for the near-term projections of near-surface(2 m)air temperature changes in China.Those models are revealed to be skillful in projecting the subsequent climatology and trend of the temperature changes in China during 2002-2018 from several to ten years ahead,with higher scores for the climatology than for the trend.The model projections display cold biases against observations in most of China,while the nationally averaged trend is overestimated by TAR models during 2002-2018 but underestimated by AR4 models during 2008-2018.For all emission scenarios,there is no obvious difference between the equal-and unequal-weighted averages based on the arithmetic averaging and reliability ensemble averaging method respectively,however the uncertainty range of projection is narrowed after weighting.The near-term temperature projections differ slightly among various emission scenarios for the climatology but are largely different for the trend.展开更多
基金supported by the General Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(Grant No.72373148).
文摘China’s path to modernization,which embodies a unique developmental model characterized by high-quality development,common prosperity,harmony with nature,and peaceful coexistence,is a multifaceted process that advances progress on multiple fronts.This paper applies two analytical lenses to the study of intergovernmental fiscal relations:multi-level governance,where different levels of government interact,and multi-objective decision-making,where multiple goals are pursued simultaneously.From this perspective,it puts forward three core propositions.First,the evolution of fiscal relations is shaped primarily by the central government’s need to balance incentivization,coordination,and control.Second,these relations are constrained by objective factors such as the output elasticity of loacl government actions,cost coefficients,externalities,and uncertainty.Third,the effectiveness of both central and local governments depends on the design of fiscal relations,as well as on their objectives,the output elasticity of actions,and costs.In essence,effective intergovernmental fiscal relations require a balance between centralized leadership and local initiative.Using this framework,the paper examines how changes in China’s fiscal system have influenced modernization across different historical periods,offering a theoretical model tailored to China’s national context.
文摘CHINA IOMed Inauguration Ceremony Held The inauguration ceremony of the International Organisation for Mediation(IOMed),headquartered in China’s Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,was held on 20 October,marking a significant milestone in global conflict resolution.The IOMed is the world’s first intergovernmental international legal organisation dedicated to resolving international disputes through mediation.
基金Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42471241,41971219,41571168)Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation(No.2020JJ4372)。
文摘In the context of the era of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,clarifying the emission patterns of non-CO_(2)Greenhouse Gas(GHG)from agricultural sources is of practical significance to China’s implementation of greenhouse gas emission reduction policies.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)coefficient method was used to calculate non-CO_(2)GHG emissions from agricultural sources in 122 counties in Hunan Province,China,from 2010 to 2020,and the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of emission intensity were analyzed.The Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence,and Technology(STRIPAT)model forecasted the prospective evolution of non-CO_(2)GHG emissions from agricultural sources at the county level under various scenarios from 2030 to 2050.The results demonstrated a general decline in non-CO_(2)GHG emissions from agricultural sources within the study area,with 75.41%of counties exhibiting a reduction in emissions.Geographically,emissions were higher in the Dongting Lake area and central Hengyang.The emission intensity per unit of agricultural added value and the intensity per unit of agricultural land area showed an overall downward trend.Spatially,the emission intensity per unit of farmland area in a few counties(cities,districts)in southern Hunan was still relatively high.By forecasting the non-CO_(2)GHG emissions from agricultural sources,the majority of counties(cities and districts)demonstrated a gradual decline in emissions,suggesting that agricultural production had the potential to reduce emissions in the future,while also facing certain pressure to reduce emissions.It is recommended that Hunan Province formulate agricultural carbon emission reduction policies that take regional development differences into account.This would provide a reference for future agricultural carbon emission reduction research in the whole country.
文摘The European Union has been experiencing the whole set of serious crises undermining European integration. The most important ones have been： financial and economic crisis, immigration crisis, crisis of nationalistic radicalization, Brexit, crisis of security caused by terrorism, strengthening of the Islamic State （ISIS）, and destabilization of regions around Europe （mainly in the Middle East）. The main thesis of this article is that all of them have weakened not only the EU as a whole but also the Member States. This has caused serious consequences being the main topics of this analysis, namely, （1） the value of solidarity lying upon the European integration concept being challenged by the crises; and （2） undermining by the crises the EU＇s pursuit of achieving the competitive advantage, stated in the strategy Europe 2020. The lack of solidarity is strongly visible in the EU Member States＇ differentiated attitudes towards the crises the EU has been facing. The paper will focus on analysis of solidarity in the light of intergovernmental approach supported by constructivism. The main research questions are： （1） To what extent have the EU crises strengthened the intergovernmental approach in the EU integration？ （2） How has the meaning and scope of the solidarity as the main EU value changed over time in the EU＇s citizens perception due to the EU crises？ （3） To what extent have strong intergovernmental approach and instrumentalization of the solidarity value influenced pursuit for competitive advantage in the EU？ （4） Does solidarity have a potential to contribute to efficient reform of the EU leading to strengthening its striving for competitive advantage in the future？ The main research approach is intergovernmentalism while the dominating methods are a process-tracing supported by a systemic method. The main conclusion of the article is necessity for redefining the rule of solidarity in order to efficiently strive for competitive advantage.
文摘Carbon footprint analysis is a method to quantify the life cycle Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) emissions and identify the measure to reduce climate change impacts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has identified that the global warming and climate change which is one of the most important issues in the domain of environment are caused by the excessive emission of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) mainly constituting Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4) and Nitrous oxide (N2O). The municipal wastewater treatment plant receives wastewater for treatment and finally discharges the treated effluent. The emissions of GHG during the treatment of wastewater as well as during the treatment process of sludge and also for energy generation are known to be on-site GHG emissions. Off-site GHG emissions are generated due to transportation and disposal of sludge, off-site energy and chemical production. In Puducherry, the municipal wastewater is being treated using oxidation ponds, Upflow Anaerobic Sludge Blanket (UASB) and Sequencing Batch Reactor (SBR). Wastewater treatment using Sequencing Batch Reactor (SBR) technology is one of the state-of-the art wastewater management systems. In this technology equalization, biological treatment and secondary clarification are performed in a single reactor in a time control sequence. The emissions of GHG from the Oxidation ponds of 12.5 MLD, UASB reactor of 2.5 MLD and SBR of 17 MLD were assessed based on the IPCC guidelines and the total emissions of GHG in terms of equivalent of CO2 were compared. The performance of the SBR is more efficient and the emissions of GHG are less than the emissions in the UASB as well as in oxidation ponds. The emission of GHG in SBR is about 60% of the existing treatment systems of oxidation ponds and UASB thus a reduction of 40% GHG emission could be achieved.
文摘Developing countries sometimes request the assistance of intergovernmental organizations to help write new laws, policies, and regulations where they did not exist, to review draft legislation, or to assist in the updating and amendment of outdated laws and policies. This paper seeks to examine the extent to which policy advice provided by intergovernmental organizations differs depending upon the provider, and assesses the extent to which developing countries are conscious of those biases when they request technical assistance. Advice on the sensitive topics of intellectual property, investment, and competition that have been provided to policy makers of developing countries by different multilateral agencies is examined. On the supply side, the paper draws upon advisory reports published by the secretariats of international organizations. On the demand side, this review is complemented by a survey of the extent to which those requesting advice in developing countries are conscious of policy bias when they ask for advisory services.
文摘From February 18-21, 2014, a panel of experts, which was established by a resolution of the United Nations Economic and Social Council to draft exemplary strategies and implementation measures for eradicating violence against children in crime prevention and criminal judicature, convened in Bangkok, Thailand, for an intergovernmental experts meeting mainly to discuss the draft. After general discussion, delib- eration by the presidium and detailed negotiations, the meeting produced the report, ＂Exemplary Strategies and Implementation Measures for Eradicating Violence Against Children in Crime Prevention and Criminal Judicature.＂
基金supported by the International Cooperation Programbetween the National Science Foundation of China(NSFC)and the United Nations Environment Pro-gramme(UNEP)(grant no.42261144002).
文摘The establishment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)and the publication of its first assessment report(FAR)in 1990 marked the commencement of the international climate policy.Two years later,in 1992,the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)was signed at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro(Brazil),which offers a crucial basis for international climate negotiations.Since 1995,the last 2 months of each calendar year have been earmarked as the intensive negotiation period for a UNFCCC Conference of the Parties(COP).
文摘The International Organization for Mediation(IOMed),the world’s first intergovernmental legal organization dedicated to the settlement of international disputes through mediation,was established in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region on May 30.First proposed in 2022 by China along with 19 other countries,the organization has drawn broad initial sup-port and participation,with representatives of nearly 60 countries from across Asia,Africa,Latin America and Europe,along with about 20 international organizations,including the United Nations,attending the signing ceremony of the Convention on the Establishment of the International Organization for Mediation.
文摘Universal access to China＇s social welfare system involves a process of diffusion from localities to the whole country on the basis of social policy innovations in which intergovernmental relations play a key role as a facilitator. The rapid establishment of the urban subsistence allowance system in more than 200 cities throughout the country in seven years （1993-1999） serves as a case for our empirical analysis of the diffusion mechanism of social policy innovations at different levels of government. Our findings show, firstly, that in adopting a new social policy, city governments have to respond to the social desire of local citizens while keeping fiscal constraints in mind; at the same time, they are affected by administrative orders from higher-level governments and the vertical fiscal relations between governments at different levels, and are also subject to competitive pressures from other cities at the same level. Secondly, city governments＇ policy innovations offer an opportunity for higher levels of government to learn from their experience. Thirdly, central government orders exert both a direct and indirect influence upon city governments, with provincial orders acting as intermediaries. And lastly, there is a clear difference in the time lag effect of orders from the central government and those at provincial level upon city governments＇ policy adoption.
文摘Although China＇s asymmetric fiscal decentralization system has been criticized for many years, there have been few studies giving direct evidence of its negative incentives on local government spending policies. By introducing the mechanism of asymmetric decentralization and fiscal transfers to the objective function of local government, this paper studies the incentive effects of asymmetric decentralization and fiscal transfers on spending policies of local governments, and uses the provincial panel data to carry out an empirical test. The conclusion shows that the asymmetric decentralization significantly weakens the incentives of local government to increase social expenditure, and as a solution to asymmetric decentralization, fiscal transfers fail to play a good role. Due to the relatively large income effect, the financing mechanism of fiscal transfers not only significantly reduces the incentives of local government to provide social public goods, but also weakens the constraint effect of fiscal competition on expenditure policies of local governments because of the increase in the relative cost. Although the distribution mechanism of fiscal transfers has a significant positive incentive to local government in regions where the net inflow of fiscal resources is more than zero, because of common pooling effects, the comprehensive effects of fiscal transfers in the distribution of incentives of local governments to provide social public goods are negative in all regions.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41991284)the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(2019QZKK0101)+1 种基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFA0606501)the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure Project“Earth System Science Numerical Simulator Facility”(Earth Lab)。
文摘Climate change has attracted significant attention due to its increasing impacts on various aspects of the world,and future climate projections are of vital importance for associated adaptation and mitigation,particularly at the regional scale.However,the skill level of the model projections over China in the past more than ten years remains unknown.In this study,we retrospectively investigate the skill of climate models within the Third(TAR),Fourth(AR4),and Fifth(AR5)Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)for the near-term projections of near-surface(2 m)air temperature changes in China.Those models are revealed to be skillful in projecting the subsequent climatology and trend of the temperature changes in China during 2002-2018 from several to ten years ahead,with higher scores for the climatology than for the trend.The model projections display cold biases against observations in most of China,while the nationally averaged trend is overestimated by TAR models during 2002-2018 but underestimated by AR4 models during 2008-2018.For all emission scenarios,there is no obvious difference between the equal-and unequal-weighted averages based on the arithmetic averaging and reliability ensemble averaging method respectively,however the uncertainty range of projection is narrowed after weighting.The near-term temperature projections differ slightly among various emission scenarios for the climatology but are largely different for the trend.
