East Asia has experienced a significant interdecadal climate shift since the late 1970s. This shift was accompanied by a decadal change of global SST. Previous studies have suggested that the decadal shift of global S...East Asia has experienced a significant interdecadal climate shift since the late 1970s. This shift was accompanied by a decadal change of global SST. Previous studies have suggested that the decadal shift of global SST background status played a substantial role in such a climatic shift. However, the individual roles of different regional SSTs remain unclear. In this study, we investigated these roles using ensemble experiments of an atmospheric general circulation model, GFDL （Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory） AM2. Two kinds of ensembles were performed. The first was a control ensemble in which the model was driven with the observed climatological SSTs. The second was an experimental ensemble in which the model was driven with the observed climatological SSTs plus interdecadal SST background shifts in separate ocean regions. The results suggest that the SST shift in the tropics exerted more important influence than those in the extratropics, although the latter contribute to the shift modestly. The variations of summer monsoonal circulation systems, including the South Asian High, the West Pacific Subtropical High, and the lower-level air flow, were analyzed. The results show that, in comparison with those induced by extratropical SSTs, the shifts induced by tropical SSTs bear more similarity to the observations and to the simulations with global SSTs prescribed. In particular, the observed SST shift in the tropical Pacific Ocean, rather than the Indian Ocean, contributed significantly to the shift of East Asian summer monsoon since the 1970s.展开更多
This study designed a simple index for measuring irregular tropospheric biennial oscillation(TBO) activities, which was used to determine that the TBO in the East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM), the most important summer ...This study designed a simple index for measuring irregular tropospheric biennial oscillation(TBO) activities, which was used to determine that the TBO in the East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM), the most important summer precipitation system for China, has strengthened rather than weakened since the late 1970s. The lead/lag correlations between the EASM and tropical Indian-Pacific sea surface temperature(SST) suggest a relationship between interbasin SST and EASM coupling processes and that this alternative correlation pattern is likely related to TBO. Significant correlation occurred only in recent decades, which implies a reinforcement of TBO in the EASM. From records of representative points in the Indian-Pacific, the interdecadal intrinsic SST modes of the areas can be obtained with ensemble empirical mode decomposition owing to its good temporal locality. Statistical results show Indian-Pacific SST interdecadal trends that include out-of-phase and in-phase warming before and after the late 1970s, respectively, which may be responsible for the TBO interdecadal augmentation present since the late 1970s.展开更多
In this study, an interdecadal shift of summer precipitation over northern East Asia （NEA） was identified, demon-strating that summer precipitation decreased abruptly after 1998/99. The synchronous shift in summer m...In this study, an interdecadal shift of summer precipitation over northern East Asia （NEA） was identified, demon-strating that summer precipitation decreased abruptly after 1998/99. The synchronous shift in summer moisture budget and water vapor transport over NEA was further investigated by using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results indicate that water vapor transported northward into NEA from three low-latitude paths was limited because most water vapor was transported eastward. Water vapor transported from the westerly path in mid-high （WMH） lat-itudes exhibited significant correlations with summer precipitation in NEA and experienced a significant adjustment in the late 1990s. Regarding the spatial distributions of water vapor transport, less input was found through the west-ern boundary while more output occurred through the eastern boundary of NEA, and zonal water vapor transport fluxes mainly concentrated at the low to middle levels, which led to the summer precipitation shift in NEA around the late 1990s. Furthermore, it is also confirmed that the wind anomalies （rather than the moisture disturbance） as the dominant internal dynamic factor and Pacific Decadal Oscillation/Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation （PDO/AMO） as possible external force played important roles in influencing the water vapor transport and causing the summer pre-cipitation shift over NEA in the late 1990s.展开更多
East Asia experienced a significant interdecadal climate shift around the late 1970s, with more floods in the valley of the Yangtze River of central-eastern China and more severe drought in North China since then. Whe...East Asia experienced a significant interdecadal climate shift around the late 1970s, with more floods in the valley of the Yangtze River of central-eastern China and more severe drought in North China since then. Whether global SST variations have played a role in this shift is unclear. In the present study, this issue is investigated by ensemble experiments of an atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM）, the GFDL AM2, since one validation reveals that the model simulates the observed East Asian Summer Monsoon （EASM） well. The results suggest that decadal global SST variations may have played a substantial role in this climate shift. Further examination of the associated atmospheric circulation shows that these results are physically reasonable.展开更多
This paper documents that the principal mode of Pan-Asian monsoon summer precipitation experienced a prominent interdecadal shift around 1992/1993 in terms of spatial pattern and major driving factors. During 1979-19...This paper documents that the principal mode of Pan-Asian monsoon summer precipitation experienced a prominent interdecadal shift around 1992/1993 in terms of spatial pattern and major driving factors. During 1979-1992 （Period 1, P1）, Pan-Asian monsoon summer precipitation anomalies mainly display a meridional dipole pattern from north to south, whereas in the period 1993-2016 （Period 2, P2）, it shows a meridional tripole pattern instead. The summer precipitation in P1 is primarily associated with a combination of the developing phase （central-eastern Pacific type） and decaying phase （eastern Pacific type） of El Nino-Southem Oscillation （ENSO）; while in P2, it is mainly associated with the decaying phase of central-eastern-Pacific-type ENSO.展开更多
The change of sea surface temperature（SST） in the southern Indian Ocean（SIO） during the recent six decades has been analyzed based on oceanic reanalysis and model, as well as atmospheric data. The results show tha...The change of sea surface temperature（SST） in the southern Indian Ocean（SIO） during the recent six decades has been analyzed based on oceanic reanalysis and model, as well as atmospheric data. The results show that a thermal regime shift in SIO during the 1960 s, which is not caught enough attentions, has been of equal magnitude to the linear warming since 1970. Empirical Orthogonal Function（EOF） analyses reveal that a thermal shift is combined with atmospheric changes such as the weakening of westerly during the period of 1960–1967. Inner dynamic connections can be defined that when the westerly winds turn weak, the anticyclonic wind circulation between westerly winds and the trade winds decreases, which further reduces the SST to a negative peak in this period. It is noted that the shifts in the 1960 s are also evident for Southern Hemisphere. For example, subtropical high and the entire westerly winds belt at high latitudes both change dramatically in the 1960 s. This large-scaled process maybe link to the change of southern annular mode（SAM）.展开更多
Previous studies have revealed a significantly negative correlation between prior winter snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau （TPSC） and tropical cyclone genesis frequency （TCF） over the western North Pacific （WNP...Previous studies have revealed a significantly negative correlation between prior winter snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau （TPSC） and tropical cyclone genesis frequency （TCF） over the western North Pacific （WNP） in the following typhoon season. This study revisited this relationship based on long-term observational data. The results showed that the interannual correlation between TCF over the WNP and TPSC experienced a shift in the early 1990s. This correlation is significant during only 1993-2012 and is considerably weak during 1976-1992. The possible reasons causing the shift were examined further, and the results demonstrated that the central Pacific （CP） E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） has played a vital role in intensifying the interannual relationship between TCF over the WNP and TPSC since the early 1990s. During 1993-2012, TPSC was negatively related to CP ENSO. When TPSC was higher than （lower than） normal, CP ENSO was often in its cold （warm） phase. Such a combination remarkably enhances the relationship of TPSC with the zonal land-sea thermal difference and thus with the summer monsoon over the WNE Additionally, it enhances the modulation of TPSC on the dynamical environments controlling TCF. As a result, the linkage between TPSC and TCF was significantly strengthened in this period. In sharp contrast, due to the weak relationship between TPSC and ENSO followed by the weak modulation of TPSC on the summer monsoon over the WNP and the dynamical environment during 1976-1992, the linkage between TPSC and TCF was weak during this time period. The results from additional dynamical diagnostic analyses further showed that during 1993-2012 CP ENSO modulated the barotropic energy conversion of zonal winds over the WNP, contributing to the intensified relationship between TPSC and TCF. These results will improve seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the WNP.展开更多
基金This research was jointly supported by the National Basic Research Program of China,"Structures,Variability and Climatic Impacts of Ocean Circulation and Warm Pool in the Tropical Pacific Ocean"，the National Science Foundation of China under grant 41205048 and the special projects of China Meteorological Administration on public interests
文摘East Asia has experienced a significant interdecadal climate shift since the late 1970s. This shift was accompanied by a decadal change of global SST. Previous studies have suggested that the decadal shift of global SST background status played a substantial role in such a climatic shift. However, the individual roles of different regional SSTs remain unclear. In this study, we investigated these roles using ensemble experiments of an atmospheric general circulation model, GFDL （Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory） AM2. Two kinds of ensembles were performed. The first was a control ensemble in which the model was driven with the observed climatological SSTs. The second was an experimental ensemble in which the model was driven with the observed climatological SSTs plus interdecadal SST background shifts in separate ocean regions. The results suggest that the SST shift in the tropics exerted more important influence than those in the extratropics, although the latter contribute to the shift modestly. The variations of summer monsoonal circulation systems, including the South Asian High, the West Pacific Subtropical High, and the lower-level air flow, were analyzed. The results show that, in comparison with those induced by extratropical SSTs, the shifts induced by tropical SSTs bear more similarity to the observations and to the simulations with global SSTs prescribed. In particular, the observed SST shift in the tropical Pacific Ocean, rather than the Indian Ocean, contributed significantly to the shift of East Asian summer monsoon since the 1970s.
文摘This study designed a simple index for measuring irregular tropospheric biennial oscillation(TBO) activities, which was used to determine that the TBO in the East Asian Summer Monsoon(EASM), the most important summer precipitation system for China, has strengthened rather than weakened since the late 1970s. The lead/lag correlations between the EASM and tropical Indian-Pacific sea surface temperature(SST) suggest a relationship between interbasin SST and EASM coupling processes and that this alternative correlation pattern is likely related to TBO. Significant correlation occurred only in recent decades, which implies a reinforcement of TBO in the EASM. From records of representative points in the Indian-Pacific, the interdecadal intrinsic SST modes of the areas can be obtained with ensemble empirical mode decomposition owing to its good temporal locality. Statistical results show Indian-Pacific SST interdecadal trends that include out-of-phase and in-phase warming before and after the late 1970s, respectively, which may be responsible for the TBO interdecadal augmentation present since the late 1970s.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41575082,41530531,and 41475064)National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFC1502303)
文摘In this study, an interdecadal shift of summer precipitation over northern East Asia （NEA） was identified, demon-strating that summer precipitation decreased abruptly after 1998/99. The synchronous shift in summer moisture budget and water vapor transport over NEA was further investigated by using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results indicate that water vapor transported northward into NEA from three low-latitude paths was limited because most water vapor was transported eastward. Water vapor transported from the westerly path in mid-high （WMH） lat-itudes exhibited significant correlations with summer precipitation in NEA and experienced a significant adjustment in the late 1990s. Regarding the spatial distributions of water vapor transport, less input was found through the west-ern boundary while more output occurred through the eastern boundary of NEA, and zonal water vapor transport fluxes mainly concentrated at the low to middle levels, which led to the summer precipitation shift in NEA around the late 1990s. Furthermore, it is also confirmed that the wind anomalies （rather than the moisture disturbance） as the dominant internal dynamic factor and Pacific Decadal Oscillation/Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation （PDO/AMO） as possible external force played important roles in influencing the water vapor transport and causing the summer pre-cipitation shift over NEA in the late 1990s.
基金supported by the National NaturalScience Foundation of China with Grant Nos. 90711004and 40775053 the Innovation Key Program (GrantNos. KZCX2-YW-Q11-03 and KZCX2-YW-Q03-08) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
文摘East Asia experienced a significant interdecadal climate shift around the late 1970s, with more floods in the valley of the Yangtze River of central-eastern China and more severe drought in North China since then. Whether global SST variations have played a role in this shift is unclear. In the present study, this issue is investigated by ensemble experiments of an atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM）, the GFDL AM2, since one validation reveals that the model simulates the observed East Asian Summer Monsoon （EASM） well. The results suggest that decadal global SST variations may have played a substantial role in this climate shift. Further examination of the associated atmospheric circulation shows that these results are physically reasonable.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41505070]the Development Program of China[grant number 2016YFA0600703]the Chinese Academy of Sciences-Peking University Joint Research Program
文摘This paper documents that the principal mode of Pan-Asian monsoon summer precipitation experienced a prominent interdecadal shift around 1992/1993 in terms of spatial pattern and major driving factors. During 1979-1992 （Period 1, P1）, Pan-Asian monsoon summer precipitation anomalies mainly display a meridional dipole pattern from north to south, whereas in the period 1993-2016 （Period 2, P2）, it shows a meridional tripole pattern instead. The summer precipitation in P1 is primarily associated with a combination of the developing phase （central-eastern Pacific type） and decaying phase （eastern Pacific type） of El Nino-Southem Oscillation （ENSO）; while in P2, it is mainly associated with the decaying phase of central-eastern-Pacific-type ENSO.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China for Distinguished Young Scholars and Innovative Research Groups under contract Nos 41525019 and 41521005the Project of the State Oceanic Administration of China for Global Climate Change under contract No.GASI-IPOVAI-02the CAS/SAFEA International Partnership Program for Creative Research Teams
文摘The change of sea surface temperature（SST） in the southern Indian Ocean（SIO） during the recent six decades has been analyzed based on oceanic reanalysis and model, as well as atmospheric data. The results show that a thermal regime shift in SIO during the 1960 s, which is not caught enough attentions, has been of equal magnitude to the linear warming since 1970. Empirical Orthogonal Function（EOF） analyses reveal that a thermal shift is combined with atmospheric changes such as the weakening of westerly during the period of 1960–1967. Inner dynamic connections can be defined that when the westerly winds turn weak, the anticyclonic wind circulation between westerly winds and the trade winds decreases, which further reduces the SST to a negative peak in this period. It is noted that the shifts in the 1960 s are also evident for Southern Hemisphere. For example, subtropical high and the entire westerly winds belt at high latitudes both change dramatically in the 1960 s. This large-scaled process maybe link to the change of southern annular mode（SAM）.
基金supported by the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(Grant No.GYHY201406001)National Key Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2012CB956003)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41375093)supported in part by the Youth Elite Project of the CMA
文摘Previous studies have revealed a significantly negative correlation between prior winter snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau （TPSC） and tropical cyclone genesis frequency （TCF） over the western North Pacific （WNP） in the following typhoon season. This study revisited this relationship based on long-term observational data. The results showed that the interannual correlation between TCF over the WNP and TPSC experienced a shift in the early 1990s. This correlation is significant during only 1993-2012 and is considerably weak during 1976-1992. The possible reasons causing the shift were examined further, and the results demonstrated that the central Pacific （CP） E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） has played a vital role in intensifying the interannual relationship between TCF over the WNP and TPSC since the early 1990s. During 1993-2012, TPSC was negatively related to CP ENSO. When TPSC was higher than （lower than） normal, CP ENSO was often in its cold （warm） phase. Such a combination remarkably enhances the relationship of TPSC with the zonal land-sea thermal difference and thus with the summer monsoon over the WNE Additionally, it enhances the modulation of TPSC on the dynamical environments controlling TCF. As a result, the linkage between TPSC and TCF was significantly strengthened in this period. In sharp contrast, due to the weak relationship between TPSC and ENSO followed by the weak modulation of TPSC on the summer monsoon over the WNP and the dynamical environment during 1976-1992, the linkage between TPSC and TCF was weak during this time period. The results from additional dynamical diagnostic analyses further showed that during 1993-2012 CP ENSO modulated the barotropic energy conversion of zonal winds over the WNP, contributing to the intensified relationship between TPSC and TCF. These results will improve seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the WNP.
