We used the ocean reanalysis dataset SODA 2.2.4 to investigate the relationship between the interior branch of subtropical-tropical cells(STCs)in the Pacific Ocean and El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)over interdecad...We used the ocean reanalysis dataset SODA 2.2.4 to investigate the relationship between the interior branch of subtropical-tropical cells(STCs)in the Pacific Ocean and El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)over interdecadal timescales between 1930 and 2010,as well as the possible mechanisms involved.Interior transport within the upper pycnocline layers of STCs(InSTC)along 9°S(InSTC9s)shows a significant correlation of 0.54 with ENSO over the study period.However,there is an interdecadal shift in the relationship between InSTC along 9°N(InSTC9n)and ENSO.The correlation coefficient between InSTC9n and ENSO is not statistically significant between 1930 and 1965(PD1),but is as high as 0.68(significant at the 95% confidence level)between 1965 and 2010(PD2).Composite and regression analysis suggests that this shift may be caused by the relationship between InSTC 9 n and the tropical wind field.During PD1,InSTC9n was driven primarily by the local wind field outside equatorial region,with a relatively weak response to the equatorial wind related to ENSO.In contrast,during PD2,the wind field associated with InSTC 9 n showed a similar spatial distribution to that of ENSO within the equatorial region,indicating a close relationship between InSTC9n and ENSO.The wind stress curl associated with ENSO drives the anomalous InSTC9n in off-equatorial regions,whose signal can propagate westward in the form of Rossby wave and modulate the thermal structure of the tropical Pacific,favoring the development of ENSO.The possible connection between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and interdecadal changes in the ENSO-InSTC9n relationship was also examined.There is a significant connection between the AMO and the interdecadal change in the relationship between ENSO and InSTC9n;however,the associated mechanism remains to be explored in future studies.展开更多
The Walker circulation is one of the major components of the large-scale tropical atmospheric circulation and variations in its strength are critical to equatorial Pacific Ocean circulation. It has been argued in the ...The Walker circulation is one of the major components of the large-scale tropical atmospheric circulation and variations in its strength are critical to equatorial Pacific Ocean circulation. It has been argued in the literature that during the 20th century the Walker circulation weakened, and that this weakening was attributable to anthropogenic climate change. By using updated observations, we show that there has been a rapid interdecadal enhancement of the Walker circulation since the late 1990s. Associated with this enhancement is enhanced precipitation in the tropical western Pacific, anomalous westerlies in the upper troposphere, descent in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, and anomalous surface easterlies in the western and central tropical Pacific. The characteristics of associated oceanic changes are a strengthened thermocline slope and an enhanced zonal SST gradient across the tropical Pacific. Many characteristics of these changes are similar to those associated with the mid-1970s climate shift with an opposite sign. We also show that the interdecadal variability of the Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific is inversely correlated to the interdecadal variability of the zonal circulation in the tropical Atlantic. An enhancement of the Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific is associated with a weakening zonal circulation in the tropical Atlantic and vise versa, implying an inter-Atlantic-Pacific connection of the zonal overturning circulation variation. Whether these recent changes will be sustained is not yet clear, but our research highlights the importance of understanding the interdecadal variability, as well as the long-term trends, that influence tropical circulation.展开更多
Using typhoon data over the Northwestern Pacific （NWP） in 60 years （1950-2009）, the interdecadal variations of typhoon frequency, track and intensity are statistically analyzed. The results showed that the frequen...Using typhoon data over the Northwestern Pacific （NWP） in 60 years （1950-2009）, the interdecadal variations of typhoon frequency, track and intensity are statistically analyzed. The results showed that the frequency of typhoon over the NWP was high in 1960s and low in 1970s. From the late 1990s, the frequency is low again. The track of typhoon was mainly shifting, and the average track was at the southern NWP in 1960s and 1970s, but in recent 10 years, the track was at the northern NWP. The intensity of typhoon was strong in 1950s and 1960s, but becomes weak in recent 25 years. In high frequency periods of typhoon, the subtropical high of NWP was weak and its position appears easternly. The distribution of Sea Surface Temperature （SST） shows characteristics of ＂La Nina＂ event. In low frequency periods of typhoon, the subtropical high of NWP is strong and its position appears westernly. The distribution of SST shows characteristics of ＂El Nino＂ event.展开更多
Reconstruction of a homogeneous temperature and precipitation series for China is crucial for a proper understanding of climate change over China. The annual mean temperature anomaly series of ten regions are found fr...Reconstruction of a homogeneous temperature and precipitation series for China is crucial for a proper understanding of climate change over China. The annual mean temperature anomaly series of ten regions are found from 1880 to 2002. Positive anomalies over China during the 1920s and 1940s are noticeable. The linear trend for the period of 1880-2002 is 0.58℃(100a)-1, which is a little less than the global mean (0.60℃ (100a)-1). 1998 was the warmest year in China since 1880, which is in agreement with the estimation of the global mean temperature. The mean precipitation on a national scale depends mainly on the precipitation over East China. Variations of precipitation in West China show some characteristics which are independent of those in the east. However, the 1920s was the driest decade not only for the east, but also for eastern West China during the last 120 years. The most severe drought on a national scale occurred in 1928. Severe droughts also occurred in 1920, 1922, 1926, and 1929 in North China. It is noticeable that precipitation over East China was generally above normai in the 1950s and 1990s; severe floods along the Yangtze River in 1954, 1991, and 1998 only occurred in these two wet decades. An increasing trend in precipitation variations is observed during the second half of the 20th century in West China, but a similar trend is not found in East China, where the 20- to 40-year periodicities are predominant in the precipitation variations.展开更多
The influences of the wintertime AO (Arctic Oscillation) on the interdecadal variation of summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia were examined. An interdecadal abrupt change was found by the end of the 1970s in the vari...The influences of the wintertime AO (Arctic Oscillation) on the interdecadal variation of summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia were examined. An interdecadal abrupt change was found by the end of the 1970s in the variation of the AO index and the leading principal component time series of the summer rainfall in East Asia. The rainfall anomaly changed from below normal to above normal in central China, the southern part of northeastern China and the Korean peninsula around 1978. However, the opposite interdecadal variation was found in the rainfall anomaly in North China and South China. The interdecadal variation of summer rainfall is associated with the weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon circulation. It is indicated that the interdecadal variation of the AO exerts an influence on the weakening of the monsoon circulation. The recent trend in the AO toward its high-index polarity during the past two decades plays important roles in the land-sea contrast anomalies and wintertime precipitation anomaly. The mid- and high-latitude regions of the Asian continent are warming, while the low-latitude regions are cooling in winter and spring along with the AO entering its high-index polarity after the late 1970s. In the meantime, the precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau and South China is excessive, implying an increase of soil moisture. The cooling tendency of the land in the southern part of Asia will persist until summer because of the memory of soil moisture. So the warming of the Asian continent is relatively slow in summer. Moreover, the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean, which are located southward and eastward of the Asian land, are warming from winter to summer. This suggests that the contrast between the land and sea is decreased in summer. The interdecadal decrease of the land-sea heat contrast finally leads to the weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon circulation.展开更多
A coupled system of the interdecadal sea-air oscillator model is studied. The E1 Nifio-southem oscillation （ENSO） atmospheric physics oscillation is an abnormal phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmo...A coupled system of the interdecadal sea-air oscillator model is studied. The E1 Nifio-southem oscillation （ENSO） atmospheric physics oscillation is an abnormal phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions. The oscillator model is involved with the variations of both the eastern and western Pacific anomaly pat- terns. This paper proposes an ENSO atmospheric physics model using a method of the perturbation theory. The aim is to create an asymptotic solving method for the ENSO model. Employing the perturbed method, the asymptotic solution of corresponding problem is obtained, and the asymptotic behaviour of the solution is studied. Thus we can obtain the prognoses of the sea surface temperature anomaly and related physical quantities.展开更多
The climatological characteristics and interdecadal variability of the water vapor transport and budget over the Yellow River-Huaihe River valleys （YH1） and the Yangtze River-Huaihe River valleys （YH2） of East Chi...The climatological characteristics and interdecadal variability of the water vapor transport and budget over the Yellow River-Huaihe River valleys （YH1） and the Yangtze River-Huaihe River valleys （YH2） of East China were investigated in this study,using the NCEP/NCAR monthly mean reanalysis datasets from 1979 to 2009.Changes in the water vapor transport pattern occurred during the late 1990s over YH1 （YH2） that corresponded with the recent interdecadal changes in the eastern China summer precipitation pattern.The net moisture influx in the YH1 increased and the net moisture influx in the YH2 decreased during 2000-2009 in comparison to 1979-1999.Detailed features in the moisture flux and transport changes across the four boundaries were explored.The altered water vapor transport over the two domains can be principally attributed to the additive effects of the changes in the confluent southwesterly moisture flow by the Indian summer monsoon and East Asian summer monsoon （related with the eastward recession of the western Pacific subtropical high）.The altered water vapor transport over YH1 was also partly caused by the weakened midlatitude westerlies.展开更多
Based on the daily precipitation data taken from 17 stations over South China during the period of 1961 2003, a sudden change in summer extreme precipitation events over South China in the early 1990s along with the p...Based on the daily precipitation data taken from 17 stations over South China during the period of 1961 2003, a sudden change in summer extreme precipitation events over South China in the early 1990s along with the possible mechanism connected with the anomalies of the latent heat flux over the South China Sea and the sensible heat flux over the Indochina peninsula are examined. The results show that both the annual and summer extreme precipitation events have obvious interdecadal variations and have increased significantly since the early 1990s. Moreover, the latent heat flux over the South China Sea and the sensible heat flux over the Indochina peninsula also have obvious interdecadal variations consistent with that of the extreme precipitation, and influence different months＇ extreme precipitation, respectively. Their effects are achieved by the interdecadal increases of the strengthening convection over South China through the South China Sea Summer Monsoon.展开更多
Anomalous patterns of the atmospheric circulation and climate are studied corresponding to the two basic interdecadal variation modes of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific, namely, the 25-35-year mode ...Anomalous patterns of the atmospheric circulation and climate are studied corresponding to the two basic interdecadal variation modes of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific, namely, the 25-35-year mode and the 7-10-year mode. Results clearly indicate that corresponding to the positive and negative phases of the interdecadal modes of SST anomaly (SSTA) in the North Pacific, the anomalous patterns of the atmospheric circulation and climate are approximately out of phase, fully illustrating the important role of the interdecadal modes of SST. Since the two interdecadal modes of SSTA in the North Pacific have similar horizontal structures, their impacts on the atmospheric circulation and climate are also analogous. The impact of the interdecadal modes of the North Pacific SST on the atmospheric circulation is barotropic at middle latitudes and baroclinic in tropical regions.展开更多
The interdecadal variability of the East Asia summer monsoon during 1951～1999 is analyzed by using two different East Asia monsoon indices. The results agree on the point that the East Asia monsoon has undergone an i...The interdecadal variability of the East Asia summer monsoon during 1951～1999 is analyzed by using two different East Asia monsoon indices. The results agree on the point that the East Asia monsoon has undergone an interdecadal variability in the mid-1970s. The intensity of the East Asia monsoon is weaker after this transition. Moreover the intensity and location of subtropical high that is an important component in East Asia monsoon system also shows interdecadal variation obviously. It is the interdecadal variation in atmospheric circulation that causes the drought over North China and flooding along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River after the mid-1970s.展开更多
Decadal/interdecadal climate variability is an important element in the CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) and has received much attention in the world. Many studies in relation to interdecadal variation ...Decadal/interdecadal climate variability is an important element in the CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) and has received much attention in the world. Many studies in relation to interdecadal variation have also been completed by Chinese scientists in recent years. In this paper, an introduction in outline for interdecadal climate variation research in China is presented. The content includes the features of interdecadal climate variability in China, global warming and interdecadal temperature variability, the NAO (the North Atlantic Oscillation)/NPO (the North Pacific Oscillation) and interdecadal climate variation in China, the interdecadal variation of the East Asian monsoon, the interdecadal mode of SSTA (Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly) in the North Pacific and its climate impact, and abrupt change feature of the climate.展开更多
The instrumental records of precipitation, including some historical documentary evidence, show that the rainfall in North China during the rainy season (July and August) exhibits an interdecadal variability similar t...The instrumental records of precipitation, including some historical documentary evidence, show that the rainfall in North China during the rainy season (July and August) exhibits an interdecadal variability similar to the Sahelian rainfall. Both these areas exhibited a weak interdecadal rainfall variability prior to the 1950s, and experienced a long-lasting drought since the 1960s, with two rainfall decreasing transitions, one around the year 1965 and another in the late 1970s. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data are used to analyze the associated changes in atmospheric circulation during the second decrease transition. The changes of local atmospheric circulation at the end of the 1970s, at both lower and upper levels, contribute to the less precipitation in North China and the Sahel.展开更多
It is well known that significant interdecadal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） occurred around the end of the 1970s. Whether these variations can be attributed to the evolution of global sea surfac...It is well known that significant interdecadal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） occurred around the end of the 1970s. Whether these variations can be attributed to the evolution of global sea surface temperature （SST） and sea ice concentration distribution is investigated with an atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM）. The model is forced with observed monthly global SST and sea ice evolution through 1958-1999. A total of four integrations starting from different initial conditions are carried out. It is found that only one of these reproduces the observed interdecadal changes of the EASM after the 1970s, including weakened low-level meridional wind, decreased surface air temperature and increased sea level pressure in central China, as well as the southwestward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high ridge and the strengthened 200-hPa westerlies. This discrepancy among these simulated results suggests that the interdecadal variation of the EASM cannot be accounted for by historical global SST and sea ice evolution. Thus, the possibility that the interdecadal timescale change of monsoon is a natural variability of the coupled climate system evolution cannot be excluded.展开更多
Decadal/interdecadal climate variability is an important research focus of the CLIVAR Program and has been paid more attention. Over recent years, a lot of studies in relation to interdecadal climate variations have b...Decadal/interdecadal climate variability is an important research focus of the CLIVAR Program and has been paid more attention. Over recent years, a lot of studies in relation to interdecadal climate variations have been also completed by Chinese scientists. This paper presents an overview of some advances in the study of decadal/interdecadal variations of the ocean temperature and its climate impacts, which includes interdccadal climate variability in China, the interdecadal modes of sea surface temperature （SST） anomalies in the North Pacific, and in particular, the impacts of interdecadal SST variations on the Asian monsoon rainfall. As summarized in this paper, some results have been achieved by using climate diagnostic studies of historical climatic datasets. Two fundamental interdecadal SST variability modes （7- 10-years mode and 25 35-years mode） have been identified over the North Pacific associated with different anomalous patterns of atmospheric circulation. The southern Indian Ocean dipole （SIOD） shows a major feature of interdecadal variation, with a positive （negative） phase favoring a weakened （enhanced） Asian summer monsoon in the following summer. It is also found that the China monsoon rainfall exhibits interdecadal variations with more wet （dry） monsoon years in the Yangtze River （South China and North China） before 1976, but vice versa after 1976. The weakened relationship between the Indian summer rainfall and ENSO is a feature of interdecadal variations, suggesting an important role of the interdecadal variation of the SIOD in the climate over the south Asia and southeast Asia. In addition, evidence indicates that the climate shift in the 1960s may be related to the anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO） and North Pacific Oscillation （NPO）. Overall, the present research has improved our understanding of the decadal/interdecadal variations of SST and their impacts on the Asian monsoon rainfall. However, the research also highlights a number of problems for future research, in particular the mechanisms responsible for the monsoon long4erm predictability, which is a great challenge in climate research.展开更多
Based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） reanalysis data from 1950-1999, interdecadal variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon （EASM） ...Based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） reanalysis data from 1950-1999, interdecadal variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon （EASM） and its associated atmospheric circulations are investigated. The EASM exhibits a distinct interdecadal variation, with stronger （weaker） summer monsoon maintained from 1950-1964 （1976-1997）. In the former case, there is an enhanced Walker cell in the eastern Pacific and an anti-Walker cell in the western Pacific. The associated ascending motion resides in the central Pacific, which flows eastward and westward in the upper troposphere, descending in the eastern and western ends of the Pacific basin. At the same time, an anomalous East Asian Hadley Cell （EAHC） is found to connect the low-latitude and mid-latitude systems in East Asia, which strengthens the EASM. The descending branch of the EAHC lies in the west part of the anti-Walker cell, flowing northward in the lower troposphere and then ascending at the south of Lake Baikal （40°-50°N, 95°- 115°E） before returning to low latitudes in the upper troposphere, thus strengthening the EASM. The relationship between the EASM and SST in the eastern tropical Pacific is also discussed. A possible mechanism is proposed to link interdecadal variation of the EASM with the eastern tropical Pacific SST. A warmer sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA） therein induces anomalous ascending motion in the eastern Pacific, resulting in a weaker Walker cell, and at the same time inducing an anomalous Walker cell in the western Pacific and an enhanced EAHC, leading to a weaker EASM. Furthermore, the interdecadal variation of summer precipitation over North China is found to be the south of Lake Baikal through enhancing and reducing strongly regulated by the velocity potential over the regional vertical motions.展开更多
The seasonal mean atmospheric precipitable water and water vapor transport over the Haihe River Basin （HRB） in North China with a focus on their interannual to interdecadal variability, and then the relationships of...The seasonal mean atmospheric precipitable water and water vapor transport over the Haihe River Basin （HRB） in North China with a focus on their interannual to interdecadal variability, and then the relationships of the interannual and interdecadal variability of the water cycle over the HRB to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） and E1 Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） phenomena were investigated using the observational and National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP） reanalysis data. There was a strong interdecadal variability for the water cycle （such as precipitation and water vapor transport） over the region, with an abrupt change occurring mostly in the mid 1970s. The intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon largely affected the atmospheric water vapor transport. Generally, the net meridional convergence of the water vapor flux over the region was relatively large before 1965, and it declined gradually from then on with a further notable decrease since mid 1970s. Zonal water vapor transport was similar to meridional, but with a much smaller magnitude and no noteworthy turning in the mid 1970s. Results also suggested that the wind field played an important role in the water vapor transport over the HRB before the mid 1960s, and the interdecadal variability of the water cycle （precipitation, water vapor transport, etc.） in the summer was related to the PDO; however, interannual variation of the water vapor transport could also be related to the ENSO phenomena.展开更多
Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the interdecadal variability of Hadley circulation （HC） and its association with East Asian temperature in winter are investigated. Results indicate that the Northern Hemisphere w...Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the interdecadal variability of Hadley circulation （HC） and its association with East Asian temperature in winter are investigated. Results indicate that the Northern Hemisphere winter HC underwent apparent change in the 1970s, with transition occurring around 1976/77. Along with interdecadal variability of HC, its linkage to surface air temperature （SAT） in East Asia also varied decadally, from weak relations to strong relations. Such a change may be related to the interaction between HC and the atmospheric circulation system over the Philippines, which is associated with the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM）. Before the 1970s, the connection between HC and the anticyclonic circulation around the Philippines was insignificant, but after the late 1970s their linkage entered a strong regime. The intensification of this connection may therefore be responsible for the strong relations between HC and East Asian winter temperatures after the late 1970s.展开更多
This article discusses the interannual variation of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), its relationship with the interdecadal climate variation in China which is associated with ...This article discusses the interannual variation of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), its relationship with the interdecadal climate variation in China which is associated with the climate jump in the Northern Hemisphere in the 1960’s, using the data analyses. It is clearly shown that both the amplitudes of the NAO and NPO increase obviously in the 1960’s and the main period of the oscillations changes from 3-4 years before the 1960’s to 8–15 years after the 1960’s. Therefore, interdecadal climate variation in China or the climate jump in the 1960’s is closely related to the anomalies of the NAO and NPO. Key words North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) - Climate Jump - Interdecadal climate variation This work was supported by National Key Basic Science Program in China (G1998040903), Chinese Academy of Science and the National Natural Science Fundation of China (Grant No.49823002).The authors are also grateful to Ms. Wang Xuan for typing the manuscript.展开更多
The interdecadal variation of Pacific thermocline represented by depth anomalies of 25σθ isopycnal surface calculated from SODA data set is analyzed. The climatological depth of 25σθ isopycnal surface is quit...The interdecadal variation of Pacific thermocline represented by depth anomalies of 25σθ isopycnal surface calculated from SODA data set is analyzed. The climatological depth of 25σθ isopycnal surface is quite close to the depth of 20 ℃ isotherm in the tropical Pacific. The EOF1 mode of the 25σθ isopycnal surface accounts for 26. 4% of the total variance and its associated pattern is of east-west direction. The centers of positive and negative extremes are located near 10oS over the southern Pacific and the correlation coefficient with zero-lag between the corresponding EOF1 time coefficient and PDO index is -0.67. This shows that there is very close relation between the southern tropical Pacific and PDO. The wavelet analysis of detrended EOF1 time coefficient reveals that there are two dominant time scales of about 3～7 and 30 a respectively. An apparent abruptness of mean value occurred in the late 1970s. EOF2 mode accounts for 12.4% of the total variance and its pattern is an ENSO-related one. The correlation coefficient between the EOF2 time coefficient and NINO3 index is -0.68. The wavelet analysis of EOF2 time coefficient reveals that there are two leading time scales of about 2～7 and 10～15 a respectively. On an interdecadal scale, the zonal change is consistent along the equator and is seesaw along 10oS; there is consistent polarity in the tropics along 165oE, but reverse polarity between around equator and other tropical region along 120oW. In all the four profiles mentioned above, the regime shift occurred in the late 1970s. The evolving characteristics of anomalies can be explained mostly by the anomalies of ocean currents during a complete cycle on an interdecadal scale.展开更多
The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) underwent an interdecadal variation with interannual variations during the period from 1958 to 1997, its index tended to decline from a higher stage in the mid-1960,s until it rea...The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) underwent an interdecadal variation with interannual variations during the period from 1958 to 1997, its index tended to decline from a higher stage in the mid-1960,s until it reached a lower stage after 1980/s. Correlation analysis reveals that EASM is closely related with the global atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST). The differences between the weak and strong stage of EASM shows that, the summer monsoon circulation over East Asia and North Africa is sharply weakened, in the meantime, the westerlies in high latitudes and the trade-wind over the tropical ocean are also changed significantly. Over the most regions south of the northern subtropics, both air temperature in the lower troposphere and SST tended to rise compared with the strong stage of EASM. It is also revealed that the ocean-atmosphere interaction over the western Pacific and Indian Ocean plays a key role in interannual to interdecadal variation of EASM, most probably, the subtropical indian Ocean is more important. On the other hand, the ENSO event is less related to EASM at least during the concerned period.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41976027)the Laoshan Laboratory(No.LSKJ202201601)。
文摘We used the ocean reanalysis dataset SODA 2.2.4 to investigate the relationship between the interior branch of subtropical-tropical cells(STCs)in the Pacific Ocean and El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)over interdecadal timescales between 1930 and 2010,as well as the possible mechanisms involved.Interior transport within the upper pycnocline layers of STCs(InSTC)along 9°S(InSTC9s)shows a significant correlation of 0.54 with ENSO over the study period.However,there is an interdecadal shift in the relationship between InSTC along 9°N(InSTC9n)and ENSO.The correlation coefficient between InSTC9n and ENSO is not statistically significant between 1930 and 1965(PD1),but is as high as 0.68(significant at the 95% confidence level)between 1965 and 2010(PD2).Composite and regression analysis suggests that this shift may be caused by the relationship between InSTC 9 n and the tropical wind field.During PD1,InSTC9n was driven primarily by the local wind field outside equatorial region,with a relatively weak response to the equatorial wind related to ENSO.In contrast,during PD2,the wind field associated with InSTC 9 n showed a similar spatial distribution to that of ENSO within the equatorial region,indicating a close relationship between InSTC9n and ENSO.The wind stress curl associated with ENSO drives the anomalous InSTC9n in off-equatorial regions,whose signal can propagate westward in the form of Rossby wave and modulate the thermal structure of the tropical Pacific,favoring the development of ENSO.The possible connection between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and interdecadal changes in the ENSO-InSTC9n relationship was also examined.There is a significant connection between the AMO and the interdecadal change in the relationship between ENSO and InSTC9n;however,the associated mechanism remains to be explored in future studies.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2010CB950400)
文摘The Walker circulation is one of the major components of the large-scale tropical atmospheric circulation and variations in its strength are critical to equatorial Pacific Ocean circulation. It has been argued in the literature that during the 20th century the Walker circulation weakened, and that this weakening was attributable to anthropogenic climate change. By using updated observations, we show that there has been a rapid interdecadal enhancement of the Walker circulation since the late 1990s. Associated with this enhancement is enhanced precipitation in the tropical western Pacific, anomalous westerlies in the upper troposphere, descent in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, and anomalous surface easterlies in the western and central tropical Pacific. The characteristics of associated oceanic changes are a strengthened thermocline slope and an enhanced zonal SST gradient across the tropical Pacific. Many characteristics of these changes are similar to those associated with the mid-1970s climate shift with an opposite sign. We also show that the interdecadal variability of the Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific is inversely correlated to the interdecadal variability of the zonal circulation in the tropical Atlantic. An enhancement of the Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific is associated with a weakening zonal circulation in the tropical Atlantic and vise versa, implying an inter-Atlantic-Pacific connection of the zonal overturning circulation variation. Whether these recent changes will be sustained is not yet clear, but our research highlights the importance of understanding the interdecadal variability, as well as the long-term trends, that influence tropical circulation.
文摘Using typhoon data over the Northwestern Pacific （NWP） in 60 years （1950-2009）, the interdecadal variations of typhoon frequency, track and intensity are statistically analyzed. The results showed that the frequency of typhoon over the NWP was high in 1960s and low in 1970s. From the late 1990s, the frequency is low again. The track of typhoon was mainly shifting, and the average track was at the southern NWP in 1960s and 1970s, but in recent 10 years, the track was at the northern NWP. The intensity of typhoon was strong in 1950s and 1960s, but becomes weak in recent 25 years. In high frequency periods of typhoon, the subtropical high of NWP was weak and its position appears easternly. The distribution of Sea Surface Temperature （SST） shows characteristics of ＂La Nina＂ event. In low frequency periods of typhoon, the subtropical high of NWP is strong and its position appears westernly. The distribution of SST shows characteristics of ＂El Nino＂ event.
基金supported by the China National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences(G1998040900)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.40205011)
文摘Reconstruction of a homogeneous temperature and precipitation series for China is crucial for a proper understanding of climate change over China. The annual mean temperature anomaly series of ten regions are found from 1880 to 2002. Positive anomalies over China during the 1920s and 1940s are noticeable. The linear trend for the period of 1880-2002 is 0.58℃(100a)-1, which is a little less than the global mean (0.60℃ (100a)-1). 1998 was the warmest year in China since 1880, which is in agreement with the estimation of the global mean temperature. The mean precipitation on a national scale depends mainly on the precipitation over East China. Variations of precipitation in West China show some characteristics which are independent of those in the east. However, the 1920s was the driest decade not only for the east, but also for eastern West China during the last 120 years. The most severe drought on a national scale occurred in 1928. Severe droughts also occurred in 1920, 1922, 1926, and 1929 in North China. It is noticeable that precipitation over East China was generally above normai in the 1950s and 1990s; severe floods along the Yangtze River in 1954, 1991, and 1998 only occurred in these two wet decades. An increasing trend in precipitation variations is observed during the second half of the 20th century in West China, but a similar trend is not found in East China, where the 20- to 40-year periodicities are predominant in the precipitation variations.
基金This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China un-der Grant No.40233033.
文摘The influences of the wintertime AO (Arctic Oscillation) on the interdecadal variation of summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia were examined. An interdecadal abrupt change was found by the end of the 1970s in the variation of the AO index and the leading principal component time series of the summer rainfall in East Asia. The rainfall anomaly changed from below normal to above normal in central China, the southern part of northeastern China and the Korean peninsula around 1978. However, the opposite interdecadal variation was found in the rainfall anomaly in North China and South China. The interdecadal variation of summer rainfall is associated with the weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon circulation. It is indicated that the interdecadal variation of the AO exerts an influence on the weakening of the monsoon circulation. The recent trend in the AO toward its high-index polarity during the past two decades plays important roles in the land-sea contrast anomalies and wintertime precipitation anomaly. The mid- and high-latitude regions of the Asian continent are warming, while the low-latitude regions are cooling in winter and spring along with the AO entering its high-index polarity after the late 1970s. In the meantime, the precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau and South China is excessive, implying an increase of soil moisture. The cooling tendency of the land in the southern part of Asia will persist until summer because of the memory of soil moisture. So the warming of the Asian continent is relatively slow in summer. Moreover, the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean, which are located southward and eastward of the Asian land, are warming from winter to summer. This suggests that the contrast between the land and sea is decreased in summer. The interdecadal decrease of the land-sea heat contrast finally leads to the weakening of the East Asia summer monsoon circulation.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40876010)Key Direction in Knowledge Innovation Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-YW-Q03-08)+2 种基金Research and Development Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) (No. GYHY200806010)LASG State Key Laboratory Special Fund, Foundation of E-Institutes of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission (No.E03004)Natural Science Foundation of Education Department of Fujian Province (No.JA10288)
文摘A coupled system of the interdecadal sea-air oscillator model is studied. The E1 Nifio-southem oscillation （ENSO） atmospheric physics oscillation is an abnormal phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions. The oscillator model is involved with the variations of both the eastern and western Pacific anomaly pat- terns. This paper proposes an ENSO atmospheric physics model using a method of the perturbation theory. The aim is to create an asymptotic solving method for the ENSO model. Employing the perturbed method, the asymptotic solution of corresponding problem is obtained, and the asymptotic behaviour of the solution is studied. Thus we can obtain the prognoses of the sea surface temperature anomaly and related physical quantities.
基金supported by the Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (973 Program) under Grant Nos. 2009CB421406 and 2010CB950304Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grant No. KZCX2-YW-Q1-02the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 40875048 and 40821092
文摘The climatological characteristics and interdecadal variability of the water vapor transport and budget over the Yellow River-Huaihe River valleys （YH1） and the Yangtze River-Huaihe River valleys （YH2） of East China were investigated in this study,using the NCEP/NCAR monthly mean reanalysis datasets from 1979 to 2009.Changes in the water vapor transport pattern occurred during the late 1990s over YH1 （YH2） that corresponded with the recent interdecadal changes in the eastern China summer precipitation pattern.The net moisture influx in the YH1 increased and the net moisture influx in the YH2 decreased during 2000-2009 in comparison to 1979-1999.Detailed features in the moisture flux and transport changes across the four boundaries were explored.The altered water vapor transport over the two domains can be principally attributed to the additive effects of the changes in the confluent southwesterly moisture flow by the Indian summer monsoon and East Asian summer monsoon （related with the eastward recession of the western Pacific subtropical high）.The altered water vapor transport over YH1 was also partly caused by the weakened midlatitude westerlies.
基金supported by the "National Key Developing Program (973 Programs) for Basic Science" Project under Grant No. 2004CB418300:"Theory and Methods of Inspection and Forecast for the Extreme Precipitation in South China""National Natural Science Foundation of China Program" under Grant No. 40675042: "Studies on the Climatic Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Events in China and Their Relations with the Nonuniformity of the Global Warming"The National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research kindly provided the sen-sible heat flux and latent heat flux data
文摘Based on the daily precipitation data taken from 17 stations over South China during the period of 1961 2003, a sudden change in summer extreme precipitation events over South China in the early 1990s along with the possible mechanism connected with the anomalies of the latent heat flux over the South China Sea and the sensible heat flux over the Indochina peninsula are examined. The results show that both the annual and summer extreme precipitation events have obvious interdecadal variations and have increased significantly since the early 1990s. Moreover, the latent heat flux over the South China Sea and the sensible heat flux over the Indochina peninsula also have obvious interdecadal variations consistent with that of the extreme precipitation, and influence different months＇ extreme precipitation, respectively. Their effects are achieved by the interdecadal increases of the strengthening convection over South China through the South China Sea Summer Monsoon.
基金supported by the National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences(G1998040900)the Chinese Academy of Sciences(KZCX2-203).
文摘Anomalous patterns of the atmospheric circulation and climate are studied corresponding to the two basic interdecadal variation modes of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific, namely, the 25-35-year mode and the 7-10-year mode. Results clearly indicate that corresponding to the positive and negative phases of the interdecadal modes of SST anomaly (SSTA) in the North Pacific, the anomalous patterns of the atmospheric circulation and climate are approximately out of phase, fully illustrating the important role of the interdecadal modes of SST. Since the two interdecadal modes of SSTA in the North Pacific have similar horizontal structures, their impacts on the atmospheric circulation and climate are also analogous. The impact of the interdecadal modes of the North Pacific SST on the atmospheric circulation is barotropic at middle latitudes and baroclinic in tropical regions.
基金Natural Science Foundation of China (40365001) Intramural research program of Yunnan University (2002Q014ZH)
文摘The interdecadal variability of the East Asia summer monsoon during 1951～1999 is analyzed by using two different East Asia monsoon indices. The results agree on the point that the East Asia monsoon has undergone an interdecadal variability in the mid-1970s. The intensity of the East Asia monsoon is weaker after this transition. Moreover the intensity and location of subtropical high that is an important component in East Asia monsoon system also shows interdecadal variation obviously. It is the interdecadal variation in atmospheric circulation that causes the drought over North China and flooding along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River after the mid-1970s.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.40233033)the Chinese Academy of Sciences(ZKCX2-SW-210 and KZCX2-203).
文摘Decadal/interdecadal climate variability is an important element in the CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) and has received much attention in the world. Many studies in relation to interdecadal variation have also been completed by Chinese scientists in recent years. In this paper, an introduction in outline for interdecadal climate variation research in China is presented. The content includes the features of interdecadal climate variability in China, global warming and interdecadal temperature variability, the NAO (the North Atlantic Oscillation)/NPO (the North Pacific Oscillation) and interdecadal climate variation in China, the interdecadal variation of the East Asian monsoon, the interdecadal mode of SSTA (Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly) in the North Pacific and its climate impact, and abrupt change feature of the climate.
文摘The instrumental records of precipitation, including some historical documentary evidence, show that the rainfall in North China during the rainy season (July and August) exhibits an interdecadal variability similar to the Sahelian rainfall. Both these areas exhibited a weak interdecadal rainfall variability prior to the 1950s, and experienced a long-lasting drought since the 1960s, with two rainfall decreasing transitions, one around the year 1965 and another in the late 1970s. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data are used to analyze the associated changes in atmospheric circulation during the second decrease transition. The changes of local atmospheric circulation at the end of the 1970s, at both lower and upper levels, contribute to the less precipitation in North China and the Sahel.
文摘It is well known that significant interdecadal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） occurred around the end of the 1970s. Whether these variations can be attributed to the evolution of global sea surface temperature （SST） and sea ice concentration distribution is investigated with an atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM）. The model is forced with observed monthly global SST and sea ice evolution through 1958-1999. A total of four integrations starting from different initial conditions are carried out. It is found that only one of these reproduces the observed interdecadal changes of the EASM after the 1970s, including weakened low-level meridional wind, decreased surface air temperature and increased sea level pressure in central China, as well as the southwestward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high ridge and the strengthened 200-hPa westerlies. This discrepancy among these simulated results suggests that the interdecadal variation of the EASM cannot be accounted for by historical global SST and sea ice evolution. Thus, the possibility that the interdecadal timescale change of monsoon is a natural variability of the coupled climate system evolution cannot be excluded.
基金the Chinese Academy of Sciences （KZCX3-SW- 226） the National Natureal Science Foundation of China （Grant No. 40233033）.
文摘Decadal/interdecadal climate variability is an important research focus of the CLIVAR Program and has been paid more attention. Over recent years, a lot of studies in relation to interdecadal climate variations have been also completed by Chinese scientists. This paper presents an overview of some advances in the study of decadal/interdecadal variations of the ocean temperature and its climate impacts, which includes interdccadal climate variability in China, the interdecadal modes of sea surface temperature （SST） anomalies in the North Pacific, and in particular, the impacts of interdecadal SST variations on the Asian monsoon rainfall. As summarized in this paper, some results have been achieved by using climate diagnostic studies of historical climatic datasets. Two fundamental interdecadal SST variability modes （7- 10-years mode and 25 35-years mode） have been identified over the North Pacific associated with different anomalous patterns of atmospheric circulation. The southern Indian Ocean dipole （SIOD） shows a major feature of interdecadal variation, with a positive （negative） phase favoring a weakened （enhanced） Asian summer monsoon in the following summer. It is also found that the China monsoon rainfall exhibits interdecadal variations with more wet （dry） monsoon years in the Yangtze River （South China and North China） before 1976, but vice versa after 1976. The weakened relationship between the Indian summer rainfall and ENSO is a feature of interdecadal variations, suggesting an important role of the interdecadal variation of the SIOD in the climate over the south Asia and southeast Asia. In addition, evidence indicates that the climate shift in the 1960s may be related to the anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO） and North Pacific Oscillation （NPO）. Overall, the present research has improved our understanding of the decadal/interdecadal variations of SST and their impacts on the Asian monsoon rainfall. However, the research also highlights a number of problems for future research, in particular the mechanisms responsible for the monsoon long4erm predictability, which is a great challenge in climate research.
文摘Based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） reanalysis data from 1950-1999, interdecadal variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon （EASM） and its associated atmospheric circulations are investigated. The EASM exhibits a distinct interdecadal variation, with stronger （weaker） summer monsoon maintained from 1950-1964 （1976-1997）. In the former case, there is an enhanced Walker cell in the eastern Pacific and an anti-Walker cell in the western Pacific. The associated ascending motion resides in the central Pacific, which flows eastward and westward in the upper troposphere, descending in the eastern and western ends of the Pacific basin. At the same time, an anomalous East Asian Hadley Cell （EAHC） is found to connect the low-latitude and mid-latitude systems in East Asia, which strengthens the EASM. The descending branch of the EAHC lies in the west part of the anti-Walker cell, flowing northward in the lower troposphere and then ascending at the south of Lake Baikal （40°-50°N, 95°- 115°E） before returning to low latitudes in the upper troposphere, thus strengthening the EASM. The relationship between the EASM and SST in the eastern tropical Pacific is also discussed. A possible mechanism is proposed to link interdecadal variation of the EASM with the eastern tropical Pacific SST. A warmer sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA） therein induces anomalous ascending motion in the eastern Pacific, resulting in a weaker Walker cell, and at the same time inducing an anomalous Walker cell in the western Pacific and an enhanced EAHC, leading to a weaker EASM. Furthermore, the interdecadal variation of summer precipitation over North China is found to be the south of Lake Baikal through enhancing and reducing strongly regulated by the velocity potential over the regional vertical motions.
基金the Key Knowledge Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Nos. KZCX2-SW-317and KZCX3-SW-226).
文摘The seasonal mean atmospheric precipitable water and water vapor transport over the Haihe River Basin （HRB） in North China with a focus on their interannual to interdecadal variability, and then the relationships of the interannual and interdecadal variability of the water cycle over the HRB to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） and E1 Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） phenomena were investigated using the observational and National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP） reanalysis data. There was a strong interdecadal variability for the water cycle （such as precipitation and water vapor transport） over the region, with an abrupt change occurring mostly in the mid 1970s. The intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon largely affected the atmospheric water vapor transport. Generally, the net meridional convergence of the water vapor flux over the region was relatively large before 1965, and it declined gradually from then on with a further notable decrease since mid 1970s. Zonal water vapor transport was similar to meridional, but with a much smaller magnitude and no noteworthy turning in the mid 1970s. Results also suggested that the wind field played an important role in the water vapor transport over the HRB before the mid 1960s, and the interdecadal variability of the water cycle （precipitation, water vapor transport, etc.） in the summer was related to the PDO; however, interannual variation of the water vapor transport could also be related to the ENSO phenomena.
文摘Based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the interdecadal variability of Hadley circulation （HC） and its association with East Asian temperature in winter are investigated. Results indicate that the Northern Hemisphere winter HC underwent apparent change in the 1970s, with transition occurring around 1976/77. Along with interdecadal variability of HC, its linkage to surface air temperature （SAT） in East Asia also varied decadally, from weak relations to strong relations. Such a change may be related to the interaction between HC and the atmospheric circulation system over the Philippines, which is associated with the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM）. Before the 1970s, the connection between HC and the anticyclonic circulation around the Philippines was insignificant, but after the late 1970s their linkage entered a strong regime. The intensification of this connection may therefore be responsible for the strong relations between HC and East Asian winter temperatures after the late 1970s.
基金This work was supported by National Key Basic Science Program in China !(G 1998040903)Chinese Academy of Science and the Nat
文摘This article discusses the interannual variation of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), its relationship with the interdecadal climate variation in China which is associated with the climate jump in the Northern Hemisphere in the 1960’s, using the data analyses. It is clearly shown that both the amplitudes of the NAO and NPO increase obviously in the 1960’s and the main period of the oscillations changes from 3-4 years before the 1960’s to 8–15 years after the 1960’s. Therefore, interdecadal climate variation in China or the climate jump in the 1960’s is closely related to the anomalies of the NAO and NPO. Key words North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) - Climate Jump - Interdecadal climate variation This work was supported by National Key Basic Science Program in China (G1998040903), Chinese Academy of Science and the National Natural Science Fundation of China (Grant No.49823002).The authors are also grateful to Ms. Wang Xuan for typing the manuscript.
基金This study was supported by the National Science Foundation of China under contract No.40136010the Chinese Academy of Sciences under contract No.ZKCX2-SW-210.
文摘The interdecadal variation of Pacific thermocline represented by depth anomalies of 25σθ isopycnal surface calculated from SODA data set is analyzed. The climatological depth of 25σθ isopycnal surface is quite close to the depth of 20 ℃ isotherm in the tropical Pacific. The EOF1 mode of the 25σθ isopycnal surface accounts for 26. 4% of the total variance and its associated pattern is of east-west direction. The centers of positive and negative extremes are located near 10oS over the southern Pacific and the correlation coefficient with zero-lag between the corresponding EOF1 time coefficient and PDO index is -0.67. This shows that there is very close relation between the southern tropical Pacific and PDO. The wavelet analysis of detrended EOF1 time coefficient reveals that there are two dominant time scales of about 3～7 and 30 a respectively. An apparent abruptness of mean value occurred in the late 1970s. EOF2 mode accounts for 12.4% of the total variance and its pattern is an ENSO-related one. The correlation coefficient between the EOF2 time coefficient and NINO3 index is -0.68. The wavelet analysis of EOF2 time coefficient reveals that there are two leading time scales of about 2～7 and 10～15 a respectively. On an interdecadal scale, the zonal change is consistent along the equator and is seesaw along 10oS; there is consistent polarity in the tropics along 165oE, but reverse polarity between around equator and other tropical region along 120oW. In all the four profiles mentioned above, the regime shift occurred in the late 1970s. The evolving characteristics of anomalies can be explained mostly by the anomalies of ocean currents during a complete cycle on an interdecadal scale.
基金the CAS Key Project (KZCXZ-203)the NSFC Project (No. 49735160 and No.40075020)IAP Innovation Fund (No. 8-1307).
文摘The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) underwent an interdecadal variation with interannual variations during the period from 1958 to 1997, its index tended to decline from a higher stage in the mid-1960,s until it reached a lower stage after 1980/s. Correlation analysis reveals that EASM is closely related with the global atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST). The differences between the weak and strong stage of EASM shows that, the summer monsoon circulation over East Asia and North Africa is sharply weakened, in the meantime, the westerlies in high latitudes and the trade-wind over the tropical ocean are also changed significantly. Over the most regions south of the northern subtropics, both air temperature in the lower troposphere and SST tended to rise compared with the strong stage of EASM. It is also revealed that the ocean-atmosphere interaction over the western Pacific and Indian Ocean plays a key role in interannual to interdecadal variation of EASM, most probably, the subtropical indian Ocean is more important. On the other hand, the ENSO event is less related to EASM at least during the concerned period.
