Global warming induced by increased CO_(2) has caused marked changes in the ocean.Previous estimates of ocean salinity change in response to global warming have considerable ambiguity,largely attributable to the diver...Global warming induced by increased CO_(2) has caused marked changes in the ocean.Previous estimates of ocean salinity change in response to global warming have considerable ambiguity,largely attributable to the diverse sensitivities of surface fluxes.This study utilizes data from the Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project to investigate how ocean salinity responds to perturbations of surface fluxes.The findings indicate the emergence of a sea surface salinity(SSS)dipole pattern predominantly in the North Atlantic and Pacific fresh pools,driven by surface flux perturbations.This results in an intensification of the“salty gets saltier and fresh gets fresher”SSS pattern across the global ocean.The spatial pattern amplification(PA)of SSS under global warming is estimated to be approximately 11.5%,with surface water flux perturbations being the most significant contributor to salinity PA,accounting for 8.1% of the change after 70 years in experiments since pre-industrial control(piControl).Notably,the zonal-depth distribution of salinity in the upper ocean exhibits lighter seawater above the denser water,with bowed isopycnals in the upper 400 m.This stable stratification inhibits vertical mixing of salinity and temperature.In response to the flux perturbations,there is a strong positive feedback due to consequent freshening.It is hypothesized that under global warming,an SSS amplification of 7.2%/℃ and a mixed-layer depth amplification of 12.5%/℃ will occur in the global ocean.It suggests that the salinity effect can exert a more stable ocean to hinder the downward transfer of heat,which provides positive feedback to future global warming.展开更多
This paper evaluates a representation of winter stratospheric circulation in the Antarctic that is based on CRA-40, a 40-year global reanalysis dataset released by the China Meteorological Administration, and compares...This paper evaluates a representation of winter stratospheric circulation in the Antarctic that is based on CRA-40, a 40-year global reanalysis dataset released by the China Meteorological Administration, and compares it with representations based on two other state-of-the-art reanalysis datasets: the fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA-5) and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2(MERRA-2). In terms of climatology, we find that CRA-40 portrays a stronger and colder polar vortex in the middle and lower stratosphere than ERA-5, but a weaker and warmer one than MERRA-2. However, disagreement among the three reanalyses is confined mainly to the period before1999, and is largely reduced after that time. On the interannual timescale, portrayals of the intensity and area of the 10-hPa polar vortex are quite consistent among the three reanalyses, with correlation coefficients greater than 0.9 between each pair of reanalyses. In addition, the central dates of most sudden stratospheric deceleration(SSD) events at 10 hPa in the three reanalyses differ by less than one day, indicating that CRA-40 is also highly consistent with the other two reanalysis datasets regarding daily evolution. Our analyses suggest that CRA-40 performs comparably to ERA-5 and MERRA-2 in characterizing winter circulation in the Antarctic middle and lower stratosphere.展开更多
It is fundamental and useful to investigate how deep learning forecasting models(DLMs)perform compared to operational oceanography forecast systems(OFSs).However,few studies have intercompared their performances using...It is fundamental and useful to investigate how deep learning forecasting models(DLMs)perform compared to operational oceanography forecast systems(OFSs).However,few studies have intercompared their performances using an identical reference.In this study,three physically reasonable DLMs are implemented for the forecasting of the sea surface temperature(SST),sea level anomaly(SLA),and sea surface velocity in the South China Sea.The DLMs are validated against both the testing dataset and the“OceanPredict”Class 4 dataset.Results show that the DLMs'RMSEs against the latter increase by 44%,245%,302%,and 109%for SST,SLA,current speed,and direction,respectively,compared to those against the former.Therefore,different references have significant influences on the validation,and it is necessary to use an identical and independent reference to intercompare the DLMs and OFSs.Against the Class 4 dataset,the DLMs present significantly better performance for SLA than the OFSs,and slightly better performances for other variables.The error patterns of the DLMs and OFSs show a high degree of similarity,which is reasonable from the viewpoint of predictability,facilitating further applications of the DLMs.For extreme events,the DLMs and OFSs both present large but similar forecast errors for SLA and current speed,while the DLMs are likely to give larger errors for SST and current direction.This study provides an evaluation of the forecast skills of commonly used DLMs and provides an example to objectively intercompare different DLMs.展开更多
Establishing power systems with a high share of renewable energy sources is a pivotal step toward achieving a globally sustainable transition to green and low-carbon energy.This study focuses on low-output wind power ...Establishing power systems with a high share of renewable energy sources is a pivotal step toward achieving a globally sustainable transition to green and low-carbon energy.This study focuses on low-output wind power that affects the generation capacity of power systems with a high share of renewable energy sources.Utilizing the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 datasets,a predictive model for low-output wind power was employed to investigate regional trends worldwide.The frequency and duration of low-output wind-power events exhibited increasing trends globally,particularly in East Asia and South America,but not in North America.By 2060,the annual total days with low-output wind power in East Asia and South America could rise to 13 and 5 d,and the maximum continuous duration of low-output wind power could reach 5 and 2 d,respectively.As wind power becomes a primary elec-tricity source,such low output could lead to shortages in energy supply within the power system,trig-gering large-scale power outages.This issue calls for critical attention when establishing power systems with a high share of renewable energy sources.The conclusions provide a basis for analyzing power supply risks and configuring flexible power sources for scenarios with a high share of renewable energy.展开更多
Flood regulation service(FRS)stands as one of the key benefits that people get from the ecosystem.Under the influence of climate change and human activities,the relationship between supply and demand of FRS would incr...Flood regulation service(FRS)stands as one of the key benefits that people get from the ecosystem.Under the influence of climate change and human activities,the relationship between supply and demand of FRS would increasingly affect regional flood risk and sustainable development.However,there was currently a lack of systematic study on the future supply-demand relationship of FRS in the flood-vulnerable area undergoing rapidly development in China.This study integrated the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project(ScenarioMIP)with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)datasets and climate model data to quantify the supply-demand ratio(SDR)of FRS in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD),China from 2020 to 2050.Trend analyses were conducted using linear regres-sion,Theil-Sen median estimation,and Hurst exponent analysis,while key drivers of SDR changes were identified and quantified through the Lindeman-Merenda-Gold(LMG)method between 2021 and 2050.Results show that the supply of FRS in the YRD was generally insufficient to meet the demand.The imbalanced subbasins covered 88.24%of the total study area,with 34.48%of this imbal-anced area concentrated in the Southeastern Basin in China.During 2021 and 2050,the imbalance of FRS supply-demand relationship would largely aggravate in the YRD,of which the aggravated area would account for 77.23%.Under different scenarios,the SDR for FRS would decrease significantly,with rates ranging from-5.45×10^(-4) to-2.06×10^(-4)(P<0.05).Especially,the decline rate of SDR in the YRD Basin(DeltaB)reached 2.92 times that the average of YRD.Human activities were the primary factors that exacerbated the imbalance in FRS supply-demand relationship,of which the relative contribution rate exceeds 75%.Particular attention should be direc-ted toward critical regions like the Southeast Basin in China(SEB)and DeltaB where substantial aggravation of supply-demand imbal-ances of FRS is projected.展开更多
The Tianshan Mountains of Central Asia,highly sensitive to climate change,has been comprehensively assessed for its ecosystem vulnerability across multiple aspects.However,studies on the region's main river system...The Tianshan Mountains of Central Asia,highly sensitive to climate change,has been comprehensively assessed for its ecosystem vulnerability across multiple aspects.However,studies on the region's main river systems and hydropower resources remain limited.Thus,examining the impact of climate change on the runoff and gross hydropower potential(GHP)of this region is essential for promoting sustainable development and effective management of water and hydropower resources.This study focused on the Kaidu River Basin that is situated above the Dashankou Hydropower Station on the southern slope of the Tianshan Mountains,China.By utilizing an ensemble of bias-corrected global climate models(GCMs)from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)and the Variable Infiltration Capacity(VIC)model coupled with a glacier module(VIC-Glacier),we examined the variations in future runoff and GHP during 2017-2070 under four shared socio-economic pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5)compared to the baseline period(1985-2016).The findings indicated that precipitation and temperature in the Kaidu River Basin exhibit a general upward trend under the four SSP scenarios,with the fastest rate of increase in precipitation under the SSP2-4.5 scenario and the most significant changes in mean,maximum,and minimum temperatures under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,compared to the baseline period(1980-2016).Future runoff in the basin is projected to decrease,with rates of decline under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios being 3.09,3.42,7.04,and 7.20 m^(3)/s per decade,respectively.The trends in GHP are consistent with runoff,with rates of decline in GHP under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios at 507.74,563.33,1158.44,and 1184.52 MW/10a,respectively.Compared to the baseline period(1985-2016),the rates of change in GHP under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios are-20.66%,-20.93%,-18.91%,and-17.49%,respectively.The Kaidu River Basin will face significant challenges in water and hydropower resources in the future,underscoring the need to adjust water resource management and hydropower planning within the basin.展开更多
2000年后全球气温的增温率显著下降,全球进入变暖减缓期。本文基于CRU（Climatic Research Unit）观测资料,分析讨论了2000年后全球及欧亚中高纬度地区全球变暖的减缓特征,评估了CMIP5（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5...2000年后全球气温的增温率显著下降,全球进入变暖减缓期。本文基于CRU（Climatic Research Unit）观测资料,分析讨论了2000年后全球及欧亚中高纬度地区全球变暖的减缓特征,评估了CMIP5（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5）试验多模式对全球变暖减缓的模拟及未来气温变化预估。结果表明,2000年后全球陆地平均地面气温的增温率大幅下降至0.14°C（10 a）-1,仅为1976~1999年加速期增温率的一半。全球陆地13个区域中有9个地区的增温率小于2000年前,4个地区甚至出现了降温。其中以欧亚中高纬地区最为特殊。加速期（1976~1999年）增温率达到0.50°C（10 a）-1,为全球陆地最大,2000年后陡降至-0.17°C（10 a）-1,为全球最强降温区,为全球变暖的减缓贡献了49.13%。并且具有显著的季节依赖,减缓期冬季增温率下降了-2.68°C（10a）-1,而秋季升高了0.86°C（10 a）-1,呈现反位相变化特征。CMIP5多模式计划中仅BCC-CSM1.1在RCP2.6情景下和MRI-ESM1模式在RCP8.5下的模拟较好地预估了全球及欧亚中高纬地区在2000年后增温率的下降以及欧亚中高纬秋、冬温度的反位相变化特征。BCC-CSM1.1在RCP2.6情景下预估欧亚中高纬地区2012年后温度距平保持在1.2°C左右,2020年后跃至2°C附近振荡。而MRI-ESM1在RCP8.5情景下预估的欧亚中高纬度温度在2030年前一直维持几乎为零的增温率,之后迅速升高。展开更多
气候变化引起的地面气溶胶浓度变化与区域空气质量密切相关。本文利用"国际大气化学—气候模式比较计划"(Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project,ACCMIP)中4个模式的试验数据分析了RCP8.5情景下20...气候变化引起的地面气溶胶浓度变化与区域空气质量密切相关。本文利用"国际大气化学—气候模式比较计划"(Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project,ACCMIP)中4个模式的试验数据分析了RCP8.5情景下2000~2100年气候变化对中国气溶胶浓度的影响。结果显示,在人为气溶胶排放固定在2000年、仅考虑气候变化的影响时,2000~2100年气候变化导致中国北部地区(31°N^45°N,105°E^122°E)硫酸盐、有机碳和黑碳气溶胶分别增加28%、21%和9%,硝酸盐气溶胶在中国东部地区减少30%。气候变化对细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))浓度的影响有显著的季节变化特征,冬季PM_(2.5)浓度在中国东部减少15%,这主要是由硝酸盐气溶胶在冬季的显著减少造成的;夏季PM_(2.5)浓度在中国北部地区增加16%,而长江以南地区减少为9%,这可能与模式模拟的未来东亚夏季风环流的增强有关。展开更多
本文基于观测和再分析资料,采用Brubaker二元模型评估了第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中19个模式对中国东部季风区气候态水循环过程的模拟能力,并分析了模拟误差来源。结果表明,CMIP6模式集合平均(MME)能够合理再现观测降水和蒸发...本文基于观测和再分析资料,采用Brubaker二元模型评估了第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中19个模式对中国东部季风区气候态水循环过程的模拟能力,并分析了模拟误差来源。结果表明,CMIP6模式集合平均(MME)能够合理再现观测降水和蒸发的年平均气候态空间分布及年循环特征,与观测值的空间相关系数分别为0.92和0.87。较之观测,MME高估了华北地区降水(0.55 mm d^(−1)),低估了华南沿海地区降水(−0.3 mm d^(−1))。所有CMIP6模式均高估蒸发强度(偏差0.03~0.98 mm d^(−1)),使得模拟的降水与蒸发之差偏少。模式整体能够模拟出我国东部季风区降水再循环率及不同边界水汽来源的贡献率,但低估了由南边界进入季风区的水汽贡献,导致东亚季风区偏干。通过分析模式对影响水汽通量的两个气象要素(风速和大气比湿)的模拟能力,发现研究区南边界的风速大小决定了模式间水汽输送差异。南边界风速越大的模式,由南边界进入的水汽通量越大,模式模拟的降水越多。西北太平洋辐合带的东西位置是影响南边界南风速的重要系统之一,辐合带位置偏东的模式模拟的南风强度较弱,使得水汽输送偏弱、降水偏少;反之,南边界水汽输送偏强、降水偏多。本文通过评估最新一代CMIP6模式在东亚水循环方面的模拟性能,指出了当前气候模式在模拟西太平洋辐合带位置方面存在的偏差及其对东亚水循环的影响。展开更多
Based on climate extreme indices calculated from a high-resolution daily observational dataset in China during 1961–2005,the performance of 12 climate models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(...Based on climate extreme indices calculated from a high-resolution daily observational dataset in China during 1961–2005,the performance of 12 climate models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),and 30 models from phase 5 of CMIP(CMIP5),are assessed in terms of spatial distribution and interannual variability.The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean(CMIP6-MME)can simulate well the spatial pattern of annual mean temperature,maximum daily maximum temperature,and minimum daily minimum temperature.However,CMIP6-MME has difficulties in reproducing cold nights and warm days,and has large cold biases over the Tibetan Plateau.Its performance in simulating extreme precipitation indices is generally lower than in simulating temperature indices.Compared to CMIP5,CMIP6 models show improvements in the simulation of climate indices over China.This is particularly true for precipitation indices for both the climatological pattern and the interannual variation,except for the consecutive dry days.The arealmean bias for total precipitation has been reduced from 127%(CMIP5-MME)to 79%(CMIP6-MME).The most striking feature is that the dry biases in southern China,very persistent and general in CMIP5-MME,are largely reduced in CMIP6-MME.Stronger ascent together with more abundant moisture can explain this reduction in dry biases.Wet biases for total precipitation,heavy precipitation,and precipitation intensity in the eastern Tibetan Plateau are still present in CMIP6-MME,but smaller,compared to CMIP5-MME.展开更多
A field-based Intercomparison study of a commercial Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) instrument (OPSIS AB, Sweden) and different point-sample monitoring techniques (PM, based on an air monitoring st...A field-based Intercomparison study of a commercial Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) instrument (OPSIS AB, Sweden) and different point-sample monitoring techniques (PM, based on an air monitoring station, an air monitoring vehicle, and various chemical methods) was conducted in Beijing from October 1999 to January 2000. The mixing ratios of six trace gases including NO, NO2, SO2, O3, benzene, and toluene were monitored continuously during the four months. A good agreement between the DOAS and PM data was found for NO2 and SO2. However, the concentrations of benzene, toluene, and NO obtained by DOAS were significantly lower than those measured by the point monitors. The ozone levels monitored by the DOAS were generally higher than those measured by point monitors. These results may be attributed to a strong vertical gradient of the NO-O3-NO2 system and of the aromatics at the measurement site. Since the exact data evaluation algorithm is not revealed by the manufacturer of the DOAS system, the error in the DOAS analysis can also not be excluded.展开更多
In order to discover the range of various errors in Chinese precipitation measurements and seek a correction method, 30 precipitation evaluation stations were set up countrywide before 1993. All the stations are refer...In order to discover the range of various errors in Chinese precipitation measurements and seek a correction method, 30 precipitation evaluation stations were set up countrywide before 1993. All the stations are reference stations in China. To seek a correction method for wind-induced error, a precipitation correction instrument called the ＂horizontal precipitation gauge＂ was devised beforehand. Field intercomparison observations regarding 29,000 precipitation events have been conducted using one pit gauge, two elevated operational gauges and one horizontal gauge at the above 30 stations. The range of precipitation measurement errors in China is obtained by analysis of intercomparison measurement results. The distribution of random errors and systematic errors in precipitation measurements are studied in this paper. A correction method, especially for wind-induced errors, is developed. The results prove that a correlation of power function exists between the precipitation amount caught by the horizontal gauge and the absolute difference of observations implemented by the operational gauge and pit gauge. The correlation coefficient is 0.99. For operational observations, precipitation correction can be carried out only by parallel observation with a horizontal precipitation gauge. The precipitation accuracy after correction approaches that of the pit gauge. The correction method developed is simple and feasible.展开更多
Sea surface winds are of great significance in scientific research. In the last few years,three series of scatterometers were launched to measure these winds,including the Advanced Scatterometer(ASCAT) aboard Meteorol...Sea surface winds are of great significance in scientific research. In the last few years,three series of scatterometers were launched to measure these winds,including the Advanced Scatterometer(ASCAT) aboard Meteorological Operational Satellite A(Met Op-A) and Met Op-B,Oceansat-2 Scatterometer(OSCAT),and HY-2A Scatterometer(HY-2A SCAT). Based on buoy wind data,validation and intercomparison of these scatterometers were performed. Scatterometer-derived wind and buoy wind data were collected only if the spatial difference was less than 0.1 degree and temporal difference less than 5 min. After discarding wind direction data outside five times the standard deviation,ASCAT wind products showed high accuracy in both wind speed and direction,with root-mean-square error(RMSE) 0.86 m/s and 17.97 degrees,respectively. HY-2A SCAT nearly meets the mission requirement,with RMSE for wind speed 1.23 m/s and 22.85 degrees for wind direction. OSCAT had poor performance when compared with the others. RMSE for wind speed was 1.54 m/s and 39.86 degrees for wind direction,which greatly exceeds the mission requirement of 20 degrees. In addition,the RMSE for wind direction shows a high-low pattern on buoy wind speed. However,a wind speed range from 14 to 15 m/s was found to be abnormal,and the reason remains unclear. There was no systematic dependency of both wind speed and direction residuals on buoy wind speed and cross-track location of the wind vector cells across the entire range. No seasonal variation was found for any scatterometer.展开更多
Three numerical oceanic circulation models: POM(Princeton ocean model), MICOM(Miami isopycnal coordinates ocean model) and GFDL model, which adopt sigma coordinate, isopycnal coordinate and depth coordinate respectiv...Three numerical oceanic circulation models: POM(Princeton ocean model), MICOM(Miami isopycnal coordinates ocean model) and GFDL model, which adopt sigma coordinate, isopycnal coordinate and depth coordinate respectively, are used in the South China Sea(SCS) circulation modeling. Model domain has the same topography, grid resolution, initial conditions and surface boundary conditions. The maximum ocean depth is set as 1 000 m. Grid resolution is 0.5o×0.5o.Initial conditions are supplied by climatological temperature and salinity data in January. Climatological wind stress, surface temperature and salinity are used as surface forcing. Lateral boundaries take enclosed boundary conditions artificially. Focusing on the common point of different ocean circulation models, the circulation pattern in winter and summer, sea surface height in the northern SCS, seasonal cycle of the mixed layer thickness in the southern SCS, barotropic stream function in winter are selected to carry out intercomparison. In winter, a strong cyclonic gyre occupies the whole SCS. In summer, a strong anticyclonic gyre occupies the southern SCS and a weak cyclonic gyre occupies the northern SCS. The thickness of the mixed layer shows bimodal features in the southern SCS. Sea surface height anomaly(SSHA) in the northern SCS has an eastward propagating feature, in agreement with the remote sensing observation. Barotropic stream functions indicate that the circulation of the upper ocean is mainly forced by inputting of wind stress curl under closed boundary conditions. In addition, three models also show distinct differences. The basin-scale circulation from MICOM is distinct. Output of POM has more mesoscale eddies than others. GFDL model seems good at simulating westward intensification.展开更多
A new instrument for measuring atmospheric nitrous acid（HONO） was developed,consisting of a double-wall glass stripping coil sampler coupled with ion chromatography（SC-IC）.SC-IC is featured by small size（50 ×...A new instrument for measuring atmospheric nitrous acid（HONO） was developed,consisting of a double-wall glass stripping coil sampler coupled with ion chromatography（SC-IC）.SC-IC is featured by small size（50 × 35 × 25 cm） and modular construction,including three independent parts：the sampling unit,the transfer and supporting unit,and the detection unit.High collection efficiency（〉 99%） was achieved with 25 μmol/L Na2CO3 as absorption solution even in the presence of highly acidic compounds.This instrument has a detection limit of 8 pptv at 15 min time resolution,with a measurement uncertainty of 7%.Potential interferences from NOx,NO2＋SO2,NO2＋VOCs,HONO＋O3,HNO3,peroxyacetyl nitrite（PAN） and particle nitrite were quantified in laboratory studies and were found to be insignificant under typical atmospheric conditions.Within the framework of the 3C-STAR project,inter-comparison between the SC-IC and LOPAP（long path liquid absorption photometer） was conducted at a rural site in the Pearl River Delta.Good agreement was achieved between the two instruments over three weeks.Both instruments determined a clear diurnal profile of ambient HONO concentrations from 0.1 to 2.5 ppbv.However,deviations were found for low ambient HONO concentrations（i.e.〈 0.3 ppbv）,which cannot be explained by previous investigated interference species.To accurately determine the HONO budget under illuminated conditions,more intercomparison of HONO measurement techniques is still needed in future studies,especially at low HONO concentrations.展开更多
A new instrument for upper ocean survey, namely the UCTD （Underway Conductivity-Temperature- Depth）, which combines some of the advantages of other underway instruments, is introduced in this paper. The Introduction...A new instrument for upper ocean survey, namely the UCTD （Underway Conductivity-Temperature- Depth）, which combines some of the advantages of other underway instruments, is introduced in this paper. The Introduction section presents a description of the construction and function of the UCTD, and the experiments conducted in the South China Sea on board the R/V Dong Fang Hong 2 in July 2007 and August 2008. The UCTD system, with pressure and temperature sensors in the probe, is con- veniently portable, cost-effective and environment-friendly. It is hopefully suitable for future cruises. An intercomparison based on regressing with the experiment temperature data from both SeaBird plus911 CTD and the UCTD showed that the standard deviation is 0.88~C and the correlation coefficient is 0.96, achieving the goals set for the current oceanography uses. In the hydrodynamic experiments, the descending velocities and depths were calculated for different ship speeds. A pulling test was designed with a tensiorneter to measure the magnitude of the pull. The maximal tension of the line was found to be 66.2 kg, which is far lower than the bearing limit of the Hollow Spectra line. Finally, some improvement suggestions are put forward for future experiments and production.展开更多
基金supported by the Laoshan Laboratory[grant number LSKJ202202403]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42030410]+1 种基金additionally supported by the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUISTJiangsu Innovation Research Group[grant number JSSCTD202346]。
文摘Global warming induced by increased CO_(2) has caused marked changes in the ocean.Previous estimates of ocean salinity change in response to global warming have considerable ambiguity,largely attributable to the diverse sensitivities of surface fluxes.This study utilizes data from the Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project to investigate how ocean salinity responds to perturbations of surface fluxes.The findings indicate the emergence of a sea surface salinity(SSS)dipole pattern predominantly in the North Atlantic and Pacific fresh pools,driven by surface flux perturbations.This results in an intensification of the“salty gets saltier and fresh gets fresher”SSS pattern across the global ocean.The spatial pattern amplification(PA)of SSS under global warming is estimated to be approximately 11.5%,with surface water flux perturbations being the most significant contributor to salinity PA,accounting for 8.1% of the change after 70 years in experiments since pre-industrial control(piControl).Notably,the zonal-depth distribution of salinity in the upper ocean exhibits lighter seawater above the denser water,with bowed isopycnals in the upper 400 m.This stable stratification inhibits vertical mixing of salinity and temperature.In response to the flux perturbations,there is a strong positive feedback due to consequent freshening.It is hypothesized that under global warming,an SSS amplification of 7.2%/℃ and a mixed-layer depth amplification of 12.5%/℃ will occur in the global ocean.It suggests that the salinity effect can exert a more stable ocean to hinder the downward transfer of heat,which provides positive feedback to future global warming.
基金jointly supported by the NSFC project (42088101, 41975048, 42361144843, 42175069)。
文摘This paper evaluates a representation of winter stratospheric circulation in the Antarctic that is based on CRA-40, a 40-year global reanalysis dataset released by the China Meteorological Administration, and compares it with representations based on two other state-of-the-art reanalysis datasets: the fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA-5) and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2(MERRA-2). In terms of climatology, we find that CRA-40 portrays a stronger and colder polar vortex in the middle and lower stratosphere than ERA-5, but a weaker and warmer one than MERRA-2. However, disagreement among the three reanalyses is confined mainly to the period before1999, and is largely reduced after that time. On the interannual timescale, portrayals of the intensity and area of the 10-hPa polar vortex are quite consistent among the three reanalyses, with correlation coefficients greater than 0.9 between each pair of reanalyses. In addition, the central dates of most sudden stratospheric deceleration(SSD) events at 10 hPa in the three reanalyses differ by less than one day, indicating that CRA-40 is also highly consistent with the other two reanalysis datasets regarding daily evolution. Our analyses suggest that CRA-40 performs comparably to ERA-5 and MERRA-2 in characterizing winter circulation in the Antarctic middle and lower stratosphere.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42375062 and 42275158)the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project“Earth System Science Numerical Simulator Facility”(EarthLab)the Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province(Grant No.22JR5RF1080)。
文摘It is fundamental and useful to investigate how deep learning forecasting models(DLMs)perform compared to operational oceanography forecast systems(OFSs).However,few studies have intercompared their performances using an identical reference.In this study,three physically reasonable DLMs are implemented for the forecasting of the sea surface temperature(SST),sea level anomaly(SLA),and sea surface velocity in the South China Sea.The DLMs are validated against both the testing dataset and the“OceanPredict”Class 4 dataset.Results show that the DLMs'RMSEs against the latter increase by 44%,245%,302%,and 109%for SST,SLA,current speed,and direction,respectively,compared to those against the former.Therefore,different references have significant influences on the validation,and it is necessary to use an identical and independent reference to intercompare the DLMs and OFSs.Against the Class 4 dataset,the DLMs present significantly better performance for SLA than the OFSs,and slightly better performances for other variables.The error patterns of the DLMs and OFSs show a high degree of similarity,which is reasonable from the viewpoint of predictability,facilitating further applications of the DLMs.For extreme events,the DLMs and OFSs both present large but similar forecast errors for SLA and current speed,while the DLMs are likely to give larger errors for SST and current direction.This study provides an evaluation of the forecast skills of commonly used DLMs and provides an example to objectively intercompare different DLMs.
基金supported by the Joint Research Fund in Smart Grid(U1966601)under cooperative agreement between the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)and the State Grid Cor-poration of China(SGCC).
文摘Establishing power systems with a high share of renewable energy sources is a pivotal step toward achieving a globally sustainable transition to green and low-carbon energy.This study focuses on low-output wind power that affects the generation capacity of power systems with a high share of renewable energy sources.Utilizing the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 datasets,a predictive model for low-output wind power was employed to investigate regional trends worldwide.The frequency and duration of low-output wind-power events exhibited increasing trends globally,particularly in East Asia and South America,but not in North America.By 2060,the annual total days with low-output wind power in East Asia and South America could rise to 13 and 5 d,and the maximum continuous duration of low-output wind power could reach 5 and 2 d,respectively.As wind power becomes a primary elec-tricity source,such low output could lead to shortages in energy supply within the power system,trig-gering large-scale power outages.This issue calls for critical attention when establishing power systems with a high share of renewable energy sources.The conclusions provide a basis for analyzing power supply risks and configuring flexible power sources for scenarios with a high share of renewable energy.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42101251)。
文摘Flood regulation service(FRS)stands as one of the key benefits that people get from the ecosystem.Under the influence of climate change and human activities,the relationship between supply and demand of FRS would increasingly affect regional flood risk and sustainable development.However,there was currently a lack of systematic study on the future supply-demand relationship of FRS in the flood-vulnerable area undergoing rapidly development in China.This study integrated the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project(ScenarioMIP)with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)datasets and climate model data to quantify the supply-demand ratio(SDR)of FRS in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD),China from 2020 to 2050.Trend analyses were conducted using linear regres-sion,Theil-Sen median estimation,and Hurst exponent analysis,while key drivers of SDR changes were identified and quantified through the Lindeman-Merenda-Gold(LMG)method between 2021 and 2050.Results show that the supply of FRS in the YRD was generally insufficient to meet the demand.The imbalanced subbasins covered 88.24%of the total study area,with 34.48%of this imbal-anced area concentrated in the Southeastern Basin in China.During 2021 and 2050,the imbalance of FRS supply-demand relationship would largely aggravate in the YRD,of which the aggravated area would account for 77.23%.Under different scenarios,the SDR for FRS would decrease significantly,with rates ranging from-5.45×10^(-4) to-2.06×10^(-4)(P<0.05).Especially,the decline rate of SDR in the YRD Basin(DeltaB)reached 2.92 times that the average of YRD.Human activities were the primary factors that exacerbated the imbalance in FRS supply-demand relationship,of which the relative contribution rate exceeds 75%.Particular attention should be direc-ted toward critical regions like the Southeast Basin in China(SEB)and DeltaB where substantial aggravation of supply-demand imbal-ances of FRS is projected.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42067062).
文摘The Tianshan Mountains of Central Asia,highly sensitive to climate change,has been comprehensively assessed for its ecosystem vulnerability across multiple aspects.However,studies on the region's main river systems and hydropower resources remain limited.Thus,examining the impact of climate change on the runoff and gross hydropower potential(GHP)of this region is essential for promoting sustainable development and effective management of water and hydropower resources.This study focused on the Kaidu River Basin that is situated above the Dashankou Hydropower Station on the southern slope of the Tianshan Mountains,China.By utilizing an ensemble of bias-corrected global climate models(GCMs)from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)and the Variable Infiltration Capacity(VIC)model coupled with a glacier module(VIC-Glacier),we examined the variations in future runoff and GHP during 2017-2070 under four shared socio-economic pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5)compared to the baseline period(1985-2016).The findings indicated that precipitation and temperature in the Kaidu River Basin exhibit a general upward trend under the four SSP scenarios,with the fastest rate of increase in precipitation under the SSP2-4.5 scenario and the most significant changes in mean,maximum,and minimum temperatures under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,compared to the baseline period(1980-2016).Future runoff in the basin is projected to decrease,with rates of decline under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios being 3.09,3.42,7.04,and 7.20 m^(3)/s per decade,respectively.The trends in GHP are consistent with runoff,with rates of decline in GHP under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios at 507.74,563.33,1158.44,and 1184.52 MW/10a,respectively.Compared to the baseline period(1985-2016),the rates of change in GHP under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios are-20.66%,-20.93%,-18.91%,and-17.49%,respectively.The Kaidu River Basin will face significant challenges in water and hydropower resources in the future,underscoring the need to adjust water resource management and hydropower planning within the basin.
文摘气候变化引起的地面气溶胶浓度变化与区域空气质量密切相关。本文利用"国际大气化学—气候模式比较计划"(Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project,ACCMIP)中4个模式的试验数据分析了RCP8.5情景下2000~2100年气候变化对中国气溶胶浓度的影响。结果显示,在人为气溶胶排放固定在2000年、仅考虑气候变化的影响时,2000~2100年气候变化导致中国北部地区(31°N^45°N,105°E^122°E)硫酸盐、有机碳和黑碳气溶胶分别增加28%、21%和9%,硝酸盐气溶胶在中国东部地区减少30%。气候变化对细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))浓度的影响有显著的季节变化特征,冬季PM_(2.5)浓度在中国东部减少15%,这主要是由硝酸盐气溶胶在冬季的显著减少造成的;夏季PM_(2.5)浓度在中国北部地区增加16%,而长江以南地区减少为9%,这可能与模式模拟的未来东亚夏季风环流的增强有关。
文摘本文基于观测和再分析资料,采用Brubaker二元模型评估了第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中19个模式对中国东部季风区气候态水循环过程的模拟能力,并分析了模拟误差来源。结果表明,CMIP6模式集合平均(MME)能够合理再现观测降水和蒸发的年平均气候态空间分布及年循环特征,与观测值的空间相关系数分别为0.92和0.87。较之观测,MME高估了华北地区降水(0.55 mm d^(−1)),低估了华南沿海地区降水(−0.3 mm d^(−1))。所有CMIP6模式均高估蒸发强度(偏差0.03~0.98 mm d^(−1)),使得模拟的降水与蒸发之差偏少。模式整体能够模拟出我国东部季风区降水再循环率及不同边界水汽来源的贡献率,但低估了由南边界进入季风区的水汽贡献,导致东亚季风区偏干。通过分析模式对影响水汽通量的两个气象要素(风速和大气比湿)的模拟能力,发现研究区南边界的风速大小决定了模式间水汽输送差异。南边界风速越大的模式,由南边界进入的水汽通量越大,模式模拟的降水越多。西北太平洋辐合带的东西位置是影响南边界南风速的重要系统之一,辐合带位置偏东的模式模拟的南风强度较弱,使得水汽输送偏弱、降水偏少;反之,南边界水汽输送偏强、降水偏多。本文通过评估最新一代CMIP6模式在东亚水循环方面的模拟性能,指出了当前气候模式在模拟西太平洋辐合带位置方面存在的偏差及其对东亚水循环的影响。
基金This research was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant Nos.2017YFA0603804 and 2018YFC1507704)the Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41805048).
文摘Based on climate extreme indices calculated from a high-resolution daily observational dataset in China during 1961–2005,the performance of 12 climate models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),and 30 models from phase 5 of CMIP(CMIP5),are assessed in terms of spatial distribution and interannual variability.The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean(CMIP6-MME)can simulate well the spatial pattern of annual mean temperature,maximum daily maximum temperature,and minimum daily minimum temperature.However,CMIP6-MME has difficulties in reproducing cold nights and warm days,and has large cold biases over the Tibetan Plateau.Its performance in simulating extreme precipitation indices is generally lower than in simulating temperature indices.Compared to CMIP5,CMIP6 models show improvements in the simulation of climate indices over China.This is particularly true for precipitation indices for both the climatological pattern and the interannual variation,except for the consecutive dry days.The arealmean bias for total precipitation has been reduced from 127%(CMIP5-MME)to 79%(CMIP6-MME).The most striking feature is that the dry biases in southern China,very persistent and general in CMIP5-MME,are largely reduced in CMIP6-MME.Stronger ascent together with more abundant moisture can explain this reduction in dry biases.Wet biases for total precipitation,heavy precipitation,and precipitation intensity in the eastern Tibetan Plateau are still present in CMIP6-MME,but smaller,compared to CMIP5-MME.
文摘A field-based Intercomparison study of a commercial Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) instrument (OPSIS AB, Sweden) and different point-sample monitoring techniques (PM, based on an air monitoring station, an air monitoring vehicle, and various chemical methods) was conducted in Beijing from October 1999 to January 2000. The mixing ratios of six trace gases including NO, NO2, SO2, O3, benzene, and toluene were monitored continuously during the four months. A good agreement between the DOAS and PM data was found for NO2 and SO2. However, the concentrations of benzene, toluene, and NO obtained by DOAS were significantly lower than those measured by the point monitors. The ozone levels monitored by the DOAS were generally higher than those measured by point monitors. These results may be attributed to a strong vertical gradient of the NO-O3-NO2 system and of the aromatics at the measurement site. Since the exact data evaluation algorithm is not revealed by the manufacturer of the DOAS system, the error in the DOAS analysis can also not be excluded.
文摘In order to discover the range of various errors in Chinese precipitation measurements and seek a correction method, 30 precipitation evaluation stations were set up countrywide before 1993. All the stations are reference stations in China. To seek a correction method for wind-induced error, a precipitation correction instrument called the ＂horizontal precipitation gauge＂ was devised beforehand. Field intercomparison observations regarding 29,000 precipitation events have been conducted using one pit gauge, two elevated operational gauges and one horizontal gauge at the above 30 stations. The range of precipitation measurement errors in China is obtained by analysis of intercomparison measurement results. The distribution of random errors and systematic errors in precipitation measurements are studied in this paper. A correction method, especially for wind-induced errors, is developed. The results prove that a correlation of power function exists between the precipitation amount caught by the horizontal gauge and the absolute difference of observations implemented by the operational gauge and pit gauge. The correlation coefficient is 0.99. For operational observations, precipitation correction can be carried out only by parallel observation with a horizontal precipitation gauge. The precipitation accuracy after correction approaches that of the pit gauge. The correction method developed is simple and feasible.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.U1406404,41331172,61361136001)the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(863 Program)(No.2013AA09A505)
文摘Sea surface winds are of great significance in scientific research. In the last few years,three series of scatterometers were launched to measure these winds,including the Advanced Scatterometer(ASCAT) aboard Meteorological Operational Satellite A(Met Op-A) and Met Op-B,Oceansat-2 Scatterometer(OSCAT),and HY-2A Scatterometer(HY-2A SCAT). Based on buoy wind data,validation and intercomparison of these scatterometers were performed. Scatterometer-derived wind and buoy wind data were collected only if the spatial difference was less than 0.1 degree and temporal difference less than 5 min. After discarding wind direction data outside five times the standard deviation,ASCAT wind products showed high accuracy in both wind speed and direction,with root-mean-square error(RMSE) 0.86 m/s and 17.97 degrees,respectively. HY-2A SCAT nearly meets the mission requirement,with RMSE for wind speed 1.23 m/s and 22.85 degrees for wind direction. OSCAT had poor performance when compared with the others. RMSE for wind speed was 1.54 m/s and 39.86 degrees for wind direction,which greatly exceeds the mission requirement of 20 degrees. In addition,the RMSE for wind direction shows a high-low pattern on buoy wind speed. However,a wind speed range from 14 to 15 m/s was found to be abnormal,and the reason remains unclear. There was no systematic dependency of both wind speed and direction residuals on buoy wind speed and cross-track location of the wind vector cells across the entire range. No seasonal variation was found for any scatterometer.
基金This work was supported by the MOST“863”Program of China under contract No.2002AA639250the Ma-jor State Basic Research Program of China under con-tract No.S5 1999043806 and G1999043810.
文摘Three numerical oceanic circulation models: POM(Princeton ocean model), MICOM(Miami isopycnal coordinates ocean model) and GFDL model, which adopt sigma coordinate, isopycnal coordinate and depth coordinate respectively, are used in the South China Sea(SCS) circulation modeling. Model domain has the same topography, grid resolution, initial conditions and surface boundary conditions. The maximum ocean depth is set as 1 000 m. Grid resolution is 0.5o×0.5o.Initial conditions are supplied by climatological temperature and salinity data in January. Climatological wind stress, surface temperature and salinity are used as surface forcing. Lateral boundaries take enclosed boundary conditions artificially. Focusing on the common point of different ocean circulation models, the circulation pattern in winter and summer, sea surface height in the northern SCS, seasonal cycle of the mixed layer thickness in the southern SCS, barotropic stream function in winter are selected to carry out intercomparison. In winter, a strong cyclonic gyre occupies the whole SCS. In summer, a strong anticyclonic gyre occupies the southern SCS and a weak cyclonic gyre occupies the northern SCS. The thickness of the mixed layer shows bimodal features in the southern SCS. Sea surface height anomaly(SSHA) in the northern SCS has an eastward propagating feature, in agreement with the remote sensing observation. Barotropic stream functions indicate that the circulation of the upper ocean is mainly forced by inputting of wind stress curl under closed boundary conditions. In addition, three models also show distinct differences. The basin-scale circulation from MICOM is distinct. Output of POM has more mesoscale eddies than others. GFDL model seems good at simulating westward intensification.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Major Program:No.21190052,40675072,and Innovative Research Group:No.41121004)this study was also supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. XDB05010500)
文摘A new instrument for measuring atmospheric nitrous acid（HONO） was developed,consisting of a double-wall glass stripping coil sampler coupled with ion chromatography（SC-IC）.SC-IC is featured by small size（50 × 35 × 25 cm） and modular construction,including three independent parts：the sampling unit,the transfer and supporting unit,and the detection unit.High collection efficiency（〉 99%） was achieved with 25 μmol/L Na2CO3 as absorption solution even in the presence of highly acidic compounds.This instrument has a detection limit of 8 pptv at 15 min time resolution,with a measurement uncertainty of 7%.Potential interferences from NOx,NO2＋SO2,NO2＋VOCs,HONO＋O3,HNO3,peroxyacetyl nitrite（PAN） and particle nitrite were quantified in laboratory studies and were found to be insignificant under typical atmospheric conditions.Within the framework of the 3C-STAR project,inter-comparison between the SC-IC and LOPAP（long path liquid absorption photometer） was conducted at a rural site in the Pearl River Delta.Good agreement was achieved between the two instruments over three weeks.Both instruments determined a clear diurnal profile of ambient HONO concentrations from 0.1 to 2.5 ppbv.However,deviations were found for low ambient HONO concentrations（i.e.〈 0.3 ppbv）,which cannot be explained by previous investigated interference species.To accurately determine the HONO budget under illuminated conditions,more intercomparison of HONO measurement techniques is still needed in future studies,especially at low HONO concentrations.
基金support of the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (Nos.2006AA09A314 and 2006AA09A307)the National Natural Science Fund (40706006)+2 种基金China’s Na-tional Basic Research Priorities Programmer (2005CB- 422303 and 2007CB411804)the key project of the In-ternational Science and Technology Cooperation Program of China (2006DFB21250)the Ministry of Educa-tion’s 111 Project (B07036)
文摘A new instrument for upper ocean survey, namely the UCTD （Underway Conductivity-Temperature- Depth）, which combines some of the advantages of other underway instruments, is introduced in this paper. The Introduction section presents a description of the construction and function of the UCTD, and the experiments conducted in the South China Sea on board the R/V Dong Fang Hong 2 in July 2007 and August 2008. The UCTD system, with pressure and temperature sensors in the probe, is con- veniently portable, cost-effective and environment-friendly. It is hopefully suitable for future cruises. An intercomparison based on regressing with the experiment temperature data from both SeaBird plus911 CTD and the UCTD showed that the standard deviation is 0.88~C and the correlation coefficient is 0.96, achieving the goals set for the current oceanography uses. In the hydrodynamic experiments, the descending velocities and depths were calculated for different ship speeds. A pulling test was designed with a tensiorneter to measure the magnitude of the pull. The maximal tension of the line was found to be 66.2 kg, which is far lower than the bearing limit of the Hollow Spectra line. Finally, some improvement suggestions are put forward for future experiments and production.
