The inter-model difference in the tropical Pacific SST warming pattern is a big stumbling block for reliable projections of global climate change. Here by conducting an inter-model Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) a...The inter-model difference in the tropical Pacific SST warming pattern is a big stumbling block for reliable projections of global climate change. Here by conducting an inter-model Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) analysis as well as an ocean mixed-layer heat budget, we find that the first two modes of inter-model difference in the SST warming pattern projected by 30 CMIP6 models, explaining more than three-quarters of the total inter-model variance, are both tied to different cloud–radiation feedbacks. The EOF1 mode that captures the different magnitudes of El Ni?o-like warming as well as the largest inter-model variance in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, is likely driven by highly diverse cloud–radiation feedbacks in the east and, to a lesser extent, by differing changes in the oceanic vertical temperature gradient. The EOF2 mode that mainly represents the different magnitudes of SST warming in the western equatorial Pacific, is associated with differing levels of negative cloud–radiation feedback over the central equatorial Pacific through a dynamic air–sea coupled process involving both the Bjerknes feedback and the wind–evaporation–SST feedback.Considering in isolation the robust common model bias of a weak negative cloud–radiation feedback over the central equatorial Pacific, the projected SST warming in the western equatorial Pacific is likely to be smaller than the multi-model ensemble mean, thereby presenting a more weakeened zonal SST gradient than expected, implying the potential for more severe climate extremes under global warming.展开更多
为了识别地铁站点与常规公交线路衔接换乘存在的换乘效率低等问题,提高城市公共交通系统运行效率和服务水平,促进城市公共交通可持续发展以及响应公众需求和监督,需要对地铁站点与常规公交衔接换乘进行全面系统评价.基于便利性、可靠性...为了识别地铁站点与常规公交线路衔接换乘存在的换乘效率低等问题,提高城市公共交通系统运行效率和服务水平,促进城市公共交通可持续发展以及响应公众需求和监督,需要对地铁站点与常规公交衔接换乘进行全面系统评价.基于便利性、可靠性、可达性、通畅性及舒适度等5个维度15个指标,建立地铁站点与常规公交的衔接换乘评价指标体系;选取CRITIC(criteria importance through inter-criteria correlation)方法对指标进行客观赋权,采用云模型生成基于基本算法的评价标准云和结果云,评价结果通过云的数字特征和云图直观展现,进而对识别出的问题和不足采取相应改进措施.以中国青岛市主城区45个地铁站点与常规公交衔接换乘为案例进行评价,结果表明,衔接换乘综合评价等级为“中等”,准则层(便利性、可靠性、可达性、通畅性和舒适度)的衔接换乘评价等级均为“中等”以上,基本符合青岛市主城区地铁站点与常规公交衔接换乘的特点,验证了评价模型的有效性和合理性.评价结果有助于优化公共交通资源配置,提高城市交通系统的整体运行效率,缓解城市交通拥堵.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.42227901, 42476020)the Scientific Research Fund of the Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources (Grant No.QNYC2001)+4 种基金the Oceanic Interdisciplinary Program of Shanghai Jiao Tong University (Project No.SL2023MS020)the Innovation Group Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) (No.311024001)supported by the Natural Environment Research Council grant NE/W005239/1supported by the open fund of the State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Second Institute of Oceanography, MNR (No.QNHX2328)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.42222502)。
文摘The inter-model difference in the tropical Pacific SST warming pattern is a big stumbling block for reliable projections of global climate change. Here by conducting an inter-model Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) analysis as well as an ocean mixed-layer heat budget, we find that the first two modes of inter-model difference in the SST warming pattern projected by 30 CMIP6 models, explaining more than three-quarters of the total inter-model variance, are both tied to different cloud–radiation feedbacks. The EOF1 mode that captures the different magnitudes of El Ni?o-like warming as well as the largest inter-model variance in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, is likely driven by highly diverse cloud–radiation feedbacks in the east and, to a lesser extent, by differing changes in the oceanic vertical temperature gradient. The EOF2 mode that mainly represents the different magnitudes of SST warming in the western equatorial Pacific, is associated with differing levels of negative cloud–radiation feedback over the central equatorial Pacific through a dynamic air–sea coupled process involving both the Bjerknes feedback and the wind–evaporation–SST feedback.Considering in isolation the robust common model bias of a weak negative cloud–radiation feedback over the central equatorial Pacific, the projected SST warming in the western equatorial Pacific is likely to be smaller than the multi-model ensemble mean, thereby presenting a more weakeened zonal SST gradient than expected, implying the potential for more severe climate extremes under global warming.
文摘为了识别地铁站点与常规公交线路衔接换乘存在的换乘效率低等问题,提高城市公共交通系统运行效率和服务水平,促进城市公共交通可持续发展以及响应公众需求和监督,需要对地铁站点与常规公交衔接换乘进行全面系统评价.基于便利性、可靠性、可达性、通畅性及舒适度等5个维度15个指标,建立地铁站点与常规公交的衔接换乘评价指标体系;选取CRITIC(criteria importance through inter-criteria correlation)方法对指标进行客观赋权,采用云模型生成基于基本算法的评价标准云和结果云,评价结果通过云的数字特征和云图直观展现,进而对识别出的问题和不足采取相应改进措施.以中国青岛市主城区45个地铁站点与常规公交衔接换乘为案例进行评价,结果表明,衔接换乘综合评价等级为“中等”,准则层(便利性、可靠性、可达性、通畅性和舒适度)的衔接换乘评价等级均为“中等”以上,基本符合青岛市主城区地铁站点与常规公交衔接换乘的特点,验证了评价模型的有效性和合理性.评价结果有助于优化公共交通资源配置,提高城市交通系统的整体运行效率,缓解城市交通拥堵.
