Background Malaria is a major worldwide health concern that impacts many individuals worldwide.P.falciparum is Africa’s main malaria cause.However,P.vivax share a large number in Ethiopia than any other countries in ...Background Malaria is a major worldwide health concern that impacts many individuals worldwide.P.falciparum is Africa’s main malaria cause.However,P.vivax share a large number in Ethiopia than any other countries in Africa,followed by the closest countries.This research aims to examine the spatiotemporal trends in the risk of malaria caused by P.falciparum and P.vivax in Ethiopia and other countries that share borders between 2011 and 2020.Methods This study was carried-out in seven East African countries in 115 administration level 1(region)settings.We used secondary data on two plasmodium parasites,P.falciparum,and P.vivax,between 2011 and 2020 from the Malaria Atlas Project.This study used a Bayesian setup with an integrated nested Laplace approximation to adopt spatiotemporal models.Results We analyzed P.falciparum and P.vivax malaria incidence data from 2011 to 2020 in 115 regions.Between 2011 and 2020,all of South Sudan’s areas,Ethiopia’s Gambella region,and Kenya’s Homa Bay,Siaya,Busia,Kakamega,and Vihita regions were at a higher risk of contracting P.falciparum malaria than their neighbors in seven East African nations.However,the Southern Nations,nationalities,and people,as well as the Oromia,Harari,Afar,and Amhara areas in Ethiopia,and the Blue Nile in Sudan,are the regions with a higher risk of P.vivax malaria than their bordering regions.For both P.falciparum and P.vivax,the spatially coordinated main effect and the unstructured spatial effect show minimal fluctuation across and within 115 regions during the study period.Through a random walk across 115 regions,the time-structured effect of P.falciparum malaria risk shows linear increases,whereas the temporally structured effect of P.vivax shows increases from 2011 to 2014 and decreases from 2017 to 2020.Conclusions The global malaria control and eradication effort should concentrate particularly on the South Sudan and Ethiopia regions to provide more intervention control to lower the risk of malaria incidence in East African countries,as both countries have high levels of P.falciparum and P.vivax,respectively.展开更多
In this paper,we propose a Bayesian PG-INLA algorithm which is tailored to both one-dimensional and multidimensional 2-PL IRT models.The proposed PG-INLA algorithm utilizes a computationally efficient data augmentatio...In this paper,we propose a Bayesian PG-INLA algorithm which is tailored to both one-dimensional and multidimensional 2-PL IRT models.The proposed PG-INLA algorithm utilizes a computationally efficient data augmentation strategy via the Pólya-Gamma variables,which can avoid low computational efficiency of traditioanl Bayesian MCMC algorithms for IRT models with a logistic link function.Meanwhile,combined with the advanced and fast INLA algorithm,the PG-INLA algorithm is both accurate and computationally efficient.We provide details on the derivation of posterior and conditional distributions of IRT models,the method of introducing the Pólya-Gamma variable into Gibbs sampling,and the implementation of the PG-INLA algorithm for both onedimensional and multidimensional cases.Through simulation studies and an application to the data analysis of the IPIP-NEO personality inventory,we assess the performance of the PG-INLA algorithm.Extensions of the proposed PG-INLA algorithm to other IRT models are also discussed.展开更多
Background:Malaria remains a significant public health concern in Ghana,with varying risk levels across different geographical areas.Malaria affects millions of people each year and imposes a substantial burden on the...Background:Malaria remains a significant public health concern in Ghana,with varying risk levels across different geographical areas.Malaria affects millions of people each year and imposes a substantial burden on the health care system and population.Accurate risk estimation and mapping are crucial for effectively allocating resources and implementing targeted interventions to identify regions with disease hotspots.This study aimed to identify regions exhibiting elevated malaria risk so that public health interventions can be implemented,and to identify malaria risk predictors that can be controlled as part of public health interventions for malaria control.Methods:The data on laboratory-confirmed malaria cases from 2015 to 2021 were obtained from the Ghana Health Service and Ghana Statistical Service.We studied the spatial and spatiotemporal patterns of the relative risk of malaria using Bayesian spatial and spatiotemporal models.The malaria risk for each region was mapped to visually identify regions with malaria hotspots.Clustering and heterogeneity of disease risks were established using correlated and uncorrelated structures via the conditional autoregressive and Gaussian models,respectively.Parameter estimates from the marginal posterior distribution were estimated within the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation using the R software.Results:The spatial model indicated an increased risk of malaria in the North East,Bono East,Ahafo,Central,Upper West,Brong Ahafo,Ashanti,and Eastern regions.The spatiotemporal model results highlighted an elevated malaria risk in the North East,Upper West,Upper East,Savannah,Bono East,Central,Bono,and Ahafo regions.Both spatial and spatiotemporal models identified the North East,Upper West,Bono East,Central,and Ahafo Regions as hotspots for malaria risk.Substantial variations in risk were evident across regions(H=104.9,P<0.001).Although climatic and economic factors influenced malaria infection,statistical significance was not established.Conclusions:Malaria risk was clustered and varied among regions in Ghana.There are many regions in Ghana that are hotspots for malaria risk,and climate and economic factors have no significant influence on malaria risk.This study could provide information on malaria transmission patterns in Ghana,and contribute to enhance the effectiveness of malaria control strategies.展开更多
文摘Background Malaria is a major worldwide health concern that impacts many individuals worldwide.P.falciparum is Africa’s main malaria cause.However,P.vivax share a large number in Ethiopia than any other countries in Africa,followed by the closest countries.This research aims to examine the spatiotemporal trends in the risk of malaria caused by P.falciparum and P.vivax in Ethiopia and other countries that share borders between 2011 and 2020.Methods This study was carried-out in seven East African countries in 115 administration level 1(region)settings.We used secondary data on two plasmodium parasites,P.falciparum,and P.vivax,between 2011 and 2020 from the Malaria Atlas Project.This study used a Bayesian setup with an integrated nested Laplace approximation to adopt spatiotemporal models.Results We analyzed P.falciparum and P.vivax malaria incidence data from 2011 to 2020 in 115 regions.Between 2011 and 2020,all of South Sudan’s areas,Ethiopia’s Gambella region,and Kenya’s Homa Bay,Siaya,Busia,Kakamega,and Vihita regions were at a higher risk of contracting P.falciparum malaria than their neighbors in seven East African nations.However,the Southern Nations,nationalities,and people,as well as the Oromia,Harari,Afar,and Amhara areas in Ethiopia,and the Blue Nile in Sudan,are the regions with a higher risk of P.vivax malaria than their bordering regions.For both P.falciparum and P.vivax,the spatially coordinated main effect and the unstructured spatial effect show minimal fluctuation across and within 115 regions during the study period.Through a random walk across 115 regions,the time-structured effect of P.falciparum malaria risk shows linear increases,whereas the temporally structured effect of P.vivax shows increases from 2011 to 2014 and decreases from 2017 to 2020.Conclusions The global malaria control and eradication effort should concentrate particularly on the South Sudan and Ethiopia regions to provide more intervention control to lower the risk of malaria incidence in East African countries,as both countries have high levels of P.falciparum and P.vivax,respectively.
基金supported by theNationalNatural Science Foundation of China[grant number 12271168]the 111 Project of China[grant number B14019].
文摘In this paper,we propose a Bayesian PG-INLA algorithm which is tailored to both one-dimensional and multidimensional 2-PL IRT models.The proposed PG-INLA algorithm utilizes a computationally efficient data augmentation strategy via the Pólya-Gamma variables,which can avoid low computational efficiency of traditioanl Bayesian MCMC algorithms for IRT models with a logistic link function.Meanwhile,combined with the advanced and fast INLA algorithm,the PG-INLA algorithm is both accurate and computationally efficient.We provide details on the derivation of posterior and conditional distributions of IRT models,the method of introducing the Pólya-Gamma variable into Gibbs sampling,and the implementation of the PG-INLA algorithm for both onedimensional and multidimensional cases.Through simulation studies and an application to the data analysis of the IPIP-NEO personality inventory,we assess the performance of the PG-INLA algorithm.Extensions of the proposed PG-INLA algorithm to other IRT models are also discussed.
文摘Background:Malaria remains a significant public health concern in Ghana,with varying risk levels across different geographical areas.Malaria affects millions of people each year and imposes a substantial burden on the health care system and population.Accurate risk estimation and mapping are crucial for effectively allocating resources and implementing targeted interventions to identify regions with disease hotspots.This study aimed to identify regions exhibiting elevated malaria risk so that public health interventions can be implemented,and to identify malaria risk predictors that can be controlled as part of public health interventions for malaria control.Methods:The data on laboratory-confirmed malaria cases from 2015 to 2021 were obtained from the Ghana Health Service and Ghana Statistical Service.We studied the spatial and spatiotemporal patterns of the relative risk of malaria using Bayesian spatial and spatiotemporal models.The malaria risk for each region was mapped to visually identify regions with malaria hotspots.Clustering and heterogeneity of disease risks were established using correlated and uncorrelated structures via the conditional autoregressive and Gaussian models,respectively.Parameter estimates from the marginal posterior distribution were estimated within the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation using the R software.Results:The spatial model indicated an increased risk of malaria in the North East,Bono East,Ahafo,Central,Upper West,Brong Ahafo,Ashanti,and Eastern regions.The spatiotemporal model results highlighted an elevated malaria risk in the North East,Upper West,Upper East,Savannah,Bono East,Central,Bono,and Ahafo regions.Both spatial and spatiotemporal models identified the North East,Upper West,Bono East,Central,and Ahafo Regions as hotspots for malaria risk.Substantial variations in risk were evident across regions(H=104.9,P<0.001).Although climatic and economic factors influenced malaria infection,statistical significance was not established.Conclusions:Malaria risk was clustered and varied among regions in Ghana.There are many regions in Ghana that are hotspots for malaria risk,and climate and economic factors have no significant influence on malaria risk.This study could provide information on malaria transmission patterns in Ghana,and contribute to enhance the effectiveness of malaria control strategies.
