Instead of establishing mathematical hydraulic system models from physical laws usually done with the problems of complex modelling processes, low reliability and practicality caused by large uncertainties, a novel mo...Instead of establishing mathematical hydraulic system models from physical laws usually done with the problems of complex modelling processes, low reliability and practicality caused by large uncertainties, a novel modelling method for a highly nonlinear system of a hydraulic excavator is presented. Based on the data collected in the excavator＇s arms driving experiments, a data-based excavator dynamic model using Simplified Refined Instrumental Variable （SRIV） identification and estimation algorithms is established. The validity of the proposed data-based model is indirectly demonstrated by the performance of computer simulation and the.real machine motion control exoeriments.展开更多
In this paper,the estimation for a class of generalized varying coefficient models with error-prone covariates is considered.By combining basis function approximations with some auxiliary variables,an instrumental var...In this paper,the estimation for a class of generalized varying coefficient models with error-prone covariates is considered.By combining basis function approximations with some auxiliary variables,an instrumental variable type estimation procedure is proposed.The asymptotic results of the estimator,such as the consistency and the weak convergence rate,are obtained.The proposed procedure can attenuate the effect of measurement errors and have proved workable for finite samples.展开更多
Regression estimates are biased when potential confounders are omitted or when there are other similar risks to validity.The instrumental variable(IV)method can be used instead to obtain less biased estimates or to st...Regression estimates are biased when potential confounders are omitted or when there are other similar risks to validity.The instrumental variable(IV)method can be used instead to obtain less biased estimates or to strengthen causal inferences.One key assumption critical to the validity of the IV method is the exclusion assumption,which requires instruments to be correlated with the outcome variable only through endogenous predictors.The chi-square test of model fit is widely used as a diagnostic test for this assumption.Previous simulation studies assessed the power of this diagnostic test only in situations with strong violations of the exclusion assumption.However,low to moderate levels of assumption violation are not uncommon in reality,especially when the exclusion assumption is violated indirectly.In this study,we showed through Monte Carlo simulations that the chi-square model fit test suffered from a severe lack of power(<30%)to detect violations of the exclusion assumption when the level of violation was of typical size,and the IV causal inferences were severely inaccurate and misleading in this case.We thus advise using the IV method with caution unless there is a chance for thorough assumption diagnostics,like in meta-analyses or experiments.展开更多
Weconsider a model identification problem in which an outcome variable contains nonignorable missing values.Statistical inference requires a guarantee of the model identifiability to obtain estimators enjoying theoret...Weconsider a model identification problem in which an outcome variable contains nonignorable missing values.Statistical inference requires a guarantee of the model identifiability to obtain estimators enjoying theoretically reasonable properties such as consistency and asymptotic normality.Recently,instrumental or shadow variables,combined with the completeness condition in the outcome model,have been highlighted to make a model identifiable.In this paper,we elucidate the relationship between the completeness condition and model identifiability when the instrumental variable is categorical.We first show that when both the outcome and instrumental variables are categorical,the two conditions are equivalent.However,when one of the outcome and instrumental variables is continuous,the completeness condition may not necessarily hold,even for simple models.Consequently,we provide a sufficient condition that guarantees the identifiability of models exhibiting a monotone-likelihood property,a condition particularly useful in instances where establishing the completeness condition poses significant challenges.Using observed data,we demonstrate that the proposed conditions are easy to check for many practical models and outline their usefulness in numerical experiments and real data analysis.展开更多
We reviewed the study by He et al,which investigates the genetic correlation between ulcerative colitis(UC)and anxiety using bidirectional Mendelian rando-mization.This study reveals a genetic link between UC and anxi...We reviewed the study by He et al,which investigates the genetic correlation between ulcerative colitis(UC)and anxiety using bidirectional Mendelian rando-mization.This study reveals a genetic link between UC and anxiety,diverging from prior research associating higher anxiety with Crohn’s disease.While the study's use of large-scale genome-wide association studies data is commendable,it faces limitations such as single nucleotide polymorphism selection biases,lack of multiple testing corrections,and a reliance on European populations.Future research should address these limitations,incorporate diverse populations,and explore psychotherapeutic interventions to improve UC management and patient outcomes.展开更多
Global population aging trends are intensifying,presenting multifaceted economic and social challenges for countries worldwide.As the world’s largest developing country,China has entered a phase of extreme demographi...Global population aging trends are intensifying,presenting multifaceted economic and social challenges for countries worldwide.As the world’s largest developing country,China has entered a phase of extreme demographic aging,posing significant questions about its impact on the ongoing upgrading of industrial structures.How does this demographic shift influence the upgrading of industrial structures,and does technological innovation mitigate or exacerbate this impact?The empirical results indicate that population aging impedes upgrading the industrial structure,while technological innovation positively affects the relationship between the two.Moreover,using technological innovation as a threshold variable,the impact of population aging on industrial structure upgrading evolves in a“gradient”manner from“impediment”to“insignificant”to“promotion”as the technological innovation levels increase.These findings offer practical guidance for tailoring industrial policies to different stages of technological advancement.展开更多
This paper investigates the effect and transmission mechanism of air pollution on urbanization based on data from China’s 107 cities during 2005–2018.In order to identify the impact of air pollution on China’s urba...This paper investigates the effect and transmission mechanism of air pollution on urbanization based on data from China’s 107 cities during 2005–2018.In order to identify the impact of air pollution on China’s urbanization,we utilized night light data to represent the level of urbanization and used temperature inversion as an instrumental variable to mitigate endogeneity within the two-stage least squares framework.The results suggest that air pollution significantly slowed China’s urbanization process with economic growth acting as the transmission mechanism.The heterogeneity analyses revealed that air pollution had a greater negative impact on urbanization in northern regions than that in southern regions,and a greater negative impact in resource-oriented cities than that in non-resource-based cities.We also find that air pollution was to the detriment of urbanization in larger cities,which have more than 3 million residents,while it did not have a significant impact on Type II large cities,which have fewer than 3 million residents.展开更多
BACKGROUND Cholangiocarcinoma(CCA)is a highly malignant biliary tract cancer with poor prognosis.Previous studies have implicated the gut microbiota in CCA,but evidence for causal mechanisms is lacking.AIM To investig...BACKGROUND Cholangiocarcinoma(CCA)is a highly malignant biliary tract cancer with poor prognosis.Previous studies have implicated the gut microbiota in CCA,but evidence for causal mechanisms is lacking.AIM To investigate the causal relationship between gut microbiota and CCA risk.METHODS We performed a two-sample mendelian randomization study to evaluate potential causal associations between gut microbiota and CCA risk using genome-wide association study summary statistics for 196 gut microbial taxa and CCA.Genetic variants were used as instrumental variables.Multiple sensitivity analyses assessed result robustness.RESULTS Fifteen gut microbial taxa showed significant causal associations with CCA risk.Higher genetically predicted abundance of genus Eubacteriumnodatum group,genus Ruminococcustorques group,genus Coprococcus,genus Dorea,and phylum Actinobacteria were associated with reduced risk of gallbladder cancer and extrahepatic CCA.Increased intrahepatic CCA risk was associated with higher abundance of family Veillonellaceae,genus Alistipes,order Enterobacteriales,and phylum Firmicutes.Protective effects against CCA were suggested for genus Collinsella,genus Eisenbergiella,genus Anaerostipes,genus Paraprevotella,genus Parasutterella,and phylum Verrucomicrobia.Sensitivity analyses indicated these findings were reliable without pleiotropy.CONCLUSION This pioneering study provides novel evidence that specific gut microbiota may play causal roles in CCA risk.Further experimental validation of these candidate microbes is warranted to consolidate causality and mechanisms.展开更多
The digital economy,as a new emerging economic form,has become an important power for realizing Chinese-style modernization and promoting green development in China.This paper measures the digital economy and low-carb...The digital economy,as a new emerging economic form,has become an important power for realizing Chinese-style modernization and promoting green development in China.This paper measures the digital economy and low-carbon transition index based on the data of 30 provinces in China from 2013 to 2020 and analyzes the mechanism and path of the digital economy affecting low-carbon transition using the fixed effect panel data model and the threshold effect model.It is found that,(1)The digital economy and low-carbon transition in China are various in different regions,with characteristics of being unbalanced and insufficient.(2)The digital economy significantly promotes low-carbon transition,with the greatest influence in the Central region,followed by the Eastern region and the Western region.Under different dimensions,the development of informatization and digital transactions promote low-carbon transition,but the development of the internet plays an inhibiting role.(3)The higher the degree of urbanization and environmental regulation,the greater the influence of the digital economy on low-carbon transition.展开更多
This paper analyzes factors that explain company layoffs,given the individual layoff data in 2021,China.Using the Probit regression model,we find that gender inequality exists in layoffs,an employee’s work experience...This paper analyzes factors that explain company layoffs,given the individual layoff data in 2021,China.Using the Probit regression model,we find that gender inequality exists in layoffs,an employee’s work experience becomes less critical in the company’s layoff decisions,and how an employee’s health reasons affect work affects its probability of being laid off.Since we consider a significant endogeneity issue with education,using parents’education as an instrumental variable suggests that political status cannot be a significant advantage for employees to lower the chance of being laid off.Moreover,evidence implies that policymakers encouraging the pursuit of higher educational degrees can foster stability in the labor market.展开更多
The state-space representation of linear time-invariant (LTI) fractional order systems is introduced, and a proof of their stability theory is also given. Then an efficient identification algorithm is proposed for tho...The state-space representation of linear time-invariant (LTI) fractional order systems is introduced, and a proof of their stability theory is also given. Then an efficient identification algorithm is proposed for those fractional order systems. The basic idea of the algorithm is to compute fractional derivatives and the filter simultaneously, i.e., the filtered fractional derivatives can be obtained by computing them in one step, and then system identification can be fulfilled by the least square method. The instrumental variable method is also used in the identification of fractional order systems. In this way, even if there is colored noise in the systems, the unbiased estimation of the parameters can still be obtained. Finally an example of identifying a viscoelastic system is given to show the effectiveness of the aforementioned method.展开更多
Due to the deficiencies in the conventional multiple-receiver localization syste,.ns based on direction of arrival （DOA） such as system complexity of interferometer or array and ampli- tude/phase unbalance between m...Due to the deficiencies in the conventional multiple-receiver localization syste,.ns based on direction of arrival （DOA） such as system complexity of interferometer or array and ampli- tude/phase unbalance between multiple receiving channels and constraint on antenna configuration, a new radiated source localization method using the changing rate of phase difference （CRPD） measured by a long baseline interferometer （LBI） only is studied. To solve the strictly nonlinear problem, a two-stage closed-form solution is proposed. In the first stage, the DOA and its changing rate are estimated from the CRPD of each observer by the pseudolinear least square （PLS） method, and then in the second stage, the source position and velocity are found by another PLS minimiza- tion. The bias of the algorithm caused by the correlation between the measurement matrix and the noise in the second stage is analyzed. To reduce this bias, an instrumental variable （IV） method is derived. A weighted IV estimator is given in order to reduce the estimation variance. The proposed method does not need any initial guess and the computation is small. The Cramer-Rao lower bound （CRLB） and mean square error （MSE） are also analyzed. Simulation results show that the proposed method can be close to the CRLB with moderate Gaussian measurement noise.展开更多
The problem of discrete-time model identification of industrial processes with time delay was investigated.An iterative and separable method is proposed to solve this problem,that is,the rational transfer function mod...The problem of discrete-time model identification of industrial processes with time delay was investigated.An iterative and separable method is proposed to solve this problem,that is,the rational transfer function model parameters and time delay are alternately fixed to estimate each other.The instrumental variable technique is applied to guarantee consistent estimation against measurement noise.A noteworthy merit of the proposed method is that it can handle fractional time delay estimation,compared to existing methods commonly assuming that the time delay is an integer multiple of the sampling interval.The identifiability analysis for time delay is addressed and correspondingly,some guidelines are provided for practical implementation of the proposed method.Numerical and experimental examples are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.展开更多
This study uses carbon emission data at the provincial level in China between 1998-2018 and the proportion of the total import and export trade between provinces and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)in...This study uses carbon emission data at the provincial level in China between 1998-2018 and the proportion of the total import and export trade between provinces and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)in GDP to measure the level of China-ASEAN trade openness.It examines the impact of China ASEAN trade openness on carbon emissions and its transmission mechanism,and selects the RMB/USD exchange rate as an instrumental variable to address the endogeneity of China-ASEAN trade openness variables.The impact of China-ASEAN trade openness on China’s environment is estimated within a two-stage least squares framework.The results show that trade openness between China and ASEAN positively impacts China’s environment and can facilitate carbon emission reduction.The scale,structural,and technology effects brought by China-ASEAN trade liberalization jointly promote China’s carbon dioxide emission reduction.An inverted“U”relationship is found between economic growth and environmental quality in China,and some provinces and municipalities have now crossed the inflection point of the curve,in which carbon emi ssions decrease with an increase in per capita wealth.展开更多
To deal with colored noise and unexpected load disturbance in identification of industrial processes with time delay, a bias-eliminated iterative least-squares(ILS) identification method is proposed in this paper to e...To deal with colored noise and unexpected load disturbance in identification of industrial processes with time delay, a bias-eliminated iterative least-squares(ILS) identification method is proposed in this paper to estimate the output error model parameters and time delay simultaneously. An extended observation vector is constructed to establish an ILS identification algorithm. Moreover, a variable forgetting factor is introduced to enhance the convergence rate of parameter estimation. For consistent estimation, an instrumental variable method is given to deal with the colored noise. The convergence and upper bound error of parameter estimation are analyzed. Two illustrative examples are used to show the effectiveness and merits of the proposed method.展开更多
The paper describes a closed-loop system identification procedure for hybrid continuous-time Box–Jenkins models and demonstrates how it can be used for IMC based PID controller tuning. An instrumental variable algori...The paper describes a closed-loop system identification procedure for hybrid continuous-time Box–Jenkins models and demonstrates how it can be used for IMC based PID controller tuning. An instrumental variable algorithm is used to identify hybrid continuous-time transfer function models of the Box–Jenkins form from discretetime prefiltered data, where the process model is a continuous-time transfer function, while the noise is represented as a discrete-time ARMA process. A novel penalized maximum-likelihood approach is used for estimating the discrete-time ARMA process and a circulatory noise elimination identification method is employed to estimate process model. The input–output data of a process are affected by additive circulatory noise in a closedloop. The noise-free input–output data of the process are obtained using the proposed method by removing these circulatory noise components. The process model can be achieved by using instrumental variable estimation method with prefiltered noise-free input–output data. The performance of the proposed hybrid parameter estimation scheme is evaluated by the Monte Carlo simulation analysis. Simulation results illustrate the efficacy of the proposed procedure. The methodology has been successfully applied in tuning of IMC based flow controller and a practical application demonstrates the applicability of the algorithm.展开更多
From 2001 to 2012,many local governments in China closed down village teaching sites for primary school students in the first and second grades,consolidating them into larger township schools more distant from village...From 2001 to 2012,many local governments in China closed down village teaching sites for primary school students in the first and second grades,consolidating them into larger township schools more distant from village students’homes.School closure and consolidation are particularly striking in China’s central and western regions,where swathes of rural labor migrated to cities for jobs.As a result,numerous primary school pupils are forced to study at boarding schools in the first and second grades,which is considered as too early for pupils to live without parental care.This paper employs survey data from 137 township schools with boarding qualifications collected by a project team consisting of researchers from the China Institute for Educational Finance Research(CIEFR)of Peking University,the Institute of Population and Labor Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences(IPLE-CASS)and the Capital University of Economics and Business(CUEB).By matching the home-school distance with village teaching site information as the proxy variable for the school consolidation policy,this paper evaluates the policy's impact on the likelyhood of premature boarding for primary school pupils,as well as the impact on their human capital accumulation.Our study finds that the creation of teaching sites makes it less likely for primary school pupils to board at school.Premature boarding impedes children’s human capital accumulation,and the harmful effect is particularly striking for children lacking pastoral teachers,raised by grandparents and from families above average income levels,as well as girls.展开更多
ihis paper examines the root causes of current cross-national institutional difference from the perspective of national hetereogeneity and provides detailed explanations on the justification and effectiveness of using...ihis paper examines the root causes of current cross-national institutional difference from the perspective of national hetereogeneity and provides detailed explanations on the justification and effectiveness of using cross-national genetic distance as the instrumental variable （IV） of institutional difference. We combined 10,585 samples by pairing 146 countries and regions, created a cross-national institutional distance variable composed of 14 indicators from the World Bank and the Heritage Foundation in three aspects including differences of political system, economic system and institutional implementation attributes, and conducted a cross-section IV estimation for the long-term effect of institutional differences on cross-national income gaps using data between 1996 and 2010. Empirical results indicate that institutional difference has a long-term significant positive effect on cross-national income gaps and such an effect has a tendency to increase during sample period. With factors like human capital, geographical factor, language and religion under control, we still arrived at similar conclusions. The empirical results are demonstrated to be robust using different genetic distance measurement indicators and estimation methods.展开更多
An accurate understanding of the intergenerational transmission of income gap is the foundation for theoretical research and policy formulation to address this issue. This paper has employed the method of two sample i...An accurate understanding of the intergenerational transmission of income gap is the foundation for theoretical research and policy formulation to address this issue. This paper has employed the method of two sample instrumental variables to effectively integrate CHIP data and CFPS data and correct the temporal income bias, life-cycle bias and coresidence bias, which are common problems in existing studies, and investigated the tendencies of intergenerational transmission of income gap for China's urban and rural households between 2002 and 2012. Results of empirical study indicate that the intergenerational transmission of income gap for China's urban and rural households has been on the decline yet the level of intergenerational transmission is greater for urban residents than for rural residents. This level of intergenerational transmission of income gap in China is at a medium international level lower than that of countries like the United States, Brazil and Japan and higher than that of Sweden and Chinese Taiwan. Further analysis of the intergenerational mobility of various income groups suggests the following: the intergenerational solidification of the bottom and top income groups of urban residents has significantly improved, which is the source for the reduction of intergenerational transmission of income gap. Rural residents of bottom income group are vulnerable to falling into the trap of intergenerational transmission of low income. In order to mitigate the intergenerational transmission of income gap, efforts must be made to improve educational allowance policy and increase the opportunities for children from poor and underprivileged families to receive education and to eliminate the divide of labor markets to create equal job opportunities for each and every worker.展开更多
This paper revealed that after spending years overseas for learning, Cambodian fellows realized that a clean society more likely results from the adopting of a waste management system. The lack of such is the main bar...This paper revealed that after spending years overseas for learning, Cambodian fellows realized that a clean society more likely results from the adopting of a waste management system. The lack of such is the main barrier for waste separation willingness and practices in Cambodia. Self-transcendence values and volunteerism are empirically found as the fundamental factors for any interventions designed to promote pro-environmental intentions and practices respectively. The fellows engaging in volunteerisms appear to do waste separation, ignoring how inconvenient the waste management system or facilities are. Similarly, the fellows concerning the environmental and social issues appear to spare their valuable time to do waste-separation which they find not difficult. This is not the case in this COVID-19 epidemic though. The study results imply that in a society where an inconvenient waste management system is in place the fellows without past volunteering, no matter how knowledgeable they are, will less likely engage in the waste-sorting practice.展开更多
文摘Instead of establishing mathematical hydraulic system models from physical laws usually done with the problems of complex modelling processes, low reliability and practicality caused by large uncertainties, a novel modelling method for a highly nonlinear system of a hydraulic excavator is presented. Based on the data collected in the excavator＇s arms driving experiments, a data-based excavator dynamic model using Simplified Refined Instrumental Variable （SRIV） identification and estimation algorithms is established. The validity of the proposed data-based model is indirectly demonstrated by the performance of computer simulation and the.real machine motion control exoeriments.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(11101119)the Natural Science Foundation of Guangxi(2010GXNSFB013051)the Philosophy and Social Sciences Foundation of Guangxi(11FTJ002)
文摘In this paper,the estimation for a class of generalized varying coefficient models with error-prone covariates is considered.By combining basis function approximations with some auxiliary variables,an instrumental variable type estimation procedure is proposed.The asymptotic results of the estimator,such as the consistency and the weak convergence rate,are obtained.The proposed procedure can attenuate the effect of measurement errors and have proved workable for finite samples.
基金supported by Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(Grant No.2022A1515011986)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.31700986).
文摘Regression estimates are biased when potential confounders are omitted or when there are other similar risks to validity.The instrumental variable(IV)method can be used instead to obtain less biased estimates or to strengthen causal inferences.One key assumption critical to the validity of the IV method is the exclusion assumption,which requires instruments to be correlated with the outcome variable only through endogenous predictors.The chi-square test of model fit is widely used as a diagnostic test for this assumption.Previous simulation studies assessed the power of this diagnostic test only in situations with strong violations of the exclusion assumption.However,low to moderate levels of assumption violation are not uncommon in reality,especially when the exclusion assumption is violated indirectly.In this study,we showed through Monte Carlo simulations that the chi-square model fit test suffered from a severe lack of power(<30%)to detect violations of the exclusion assumption when the level of violation was of typical size,and the IV causal inferences were severely inaccurate and misleading in this case.We thus advise using the IV method with caution unless there is a chance for thorough assumption diagnostics,like in meta-analyses or experiments.
基金supported by MEXT Project for Seismology toward Research Innovation with Data of Earthquake(STAR-E)[Grant Number JPJ010217].
文摘Weconsider a model identification problem in which an outcome variable contains nonignorable missing values.Statistical inference requires a guarantee of the model identifiability to obtain estimators enjoying theoretically reasonable properties such as consistency and asymptotic normality.Recently,instrumental or shadow variables,combined with the completeness condition in the outcome model,have been highlighted to make a model identifiable.In this paper,we elucidate the relationship between the completeness condition and model identifiability when the instrumental variable is categorical.We first show that when both the outcome and instrumental variables are categorical,the two conditions are equivalent.However,when one of the outcome and instrumental variables is continuous,the completeness condition may not necessarily hold,even for simple models.Consequently,we provide a sufficient condition that guarantees the identifiability of models exhibiting a monotone-likelihood property,a condition particularly useful in instances where establishing the completeness condition poses significant challenges.Using observed data,we demonstrate that the proposed conditions are easy to check for many practical models and outline their usefulness in numerical experiments and real data analysis.
基金Supported by Guangxi Training Program for Medical High-level Academic LeadersBose Talent Highland+3 种基金Building Projects of Guangxi Bagui Scholars,No.Guirencaiban[2024]-39Building Projects from the Key Laboratory of Molecular Pathology(Hepatobiliary Diseases)of Guangxi,the Key Laboratory of Tumor Molecular Pathology of Guangxi Colleges&UniversitiesClinical Key Specialty Building Project(For Pathology)of Guangxiand Nanshan District Health System Science and Technology Major Project,No.NSZD2024045.
文摘We reviewed the study by He et al,which investigates the genetic correlation between ulcerative colitis(UC)and anxiety using bidirectional Mendelian rando-mization.This study reveals a genetic link between UC and anxiety,diverging from prior research associating higher anxiety with Crohn’s disease.While the study's use of large-scale genome-wide association studies data is commendable,it faces limitations such as single nucleotide polymorphism selection biases,lack of multiple testing corrections,and a reliance on European populations.Future research should address these limitations,incorporate diverse populations,and explore psychotherapeutic interventions to improve UC management and patient outcomes.
基金supported by the Research Center for Aging Career and Industrial Development,Sichuan Key Research Base of Social Sciences[Grant No.XJLL2022009].
文摘Global population aging trends are intensifying,presenting multifaceted economic and social challenges for countries worldwide.As the world’s largest developing country,China has entered a phase of extreme demographic aging,posing significant questions about its impact on the ongoing upgrading of industrial structures.How does this demographic shift influence the upgrading of industrial structures,and does technological innovation mitigate or exacerbate this impact?The empirical results indicate that population aging impedes upgrading the industrial structure,while technological innovation positively affects the relationship between the two.Moreover,using technological innovation as a threshold variable,the impact of population aging on industrial structure upgrading evolves in a“gradient”manner from“impediment”to“insignificant”to“promotion”as the technological innovation levels increase.These findings offer practical guidance for tailoring industrial policies to different stages of technological advancement.
基金supported by Preliminary Funding Project of Hubei Provincial Department of Education[Grant No.22ZD100].
文摘This paper investigates the effect and transmission mechanism of air pollution on urbanization based on data from China’s 107 cities during 2005–2018.In order to identify the impact of air pollution on China’s urbanization,we utilized night light data to represent the level of urbanization and used temperature inversion as an instrumental variable to mitigate endogeneity within the two-stage least squares framework.The results suggest that air pollution significantly slowed China’s urbanization process with economic growth acting as the transmission mechanism.The heterogeneity analyses revealed that air pollution had a greater negative impact on urbanization in northern regions than that in southern regions,and a greater negative impact in resource-oriented cities than that in non-resource-based cities.We also find that air pollution was to the detriment of urbanization in larger cities,which have more than 3 million residents,while it did not have a significant impact on Type II large cities,which have fewer than 3 million residents.
文摘BACKGROUND Cholangiocarcinoma(CCA)is a highly malignant biliary tract cancer with poor prognosis.Previous studies have implicated the gut microbiota in CCA,but evidence for causal mechanisms is lacking.AIM To investigate the causal relationship between gut microbiota and CCA risk.METHODS We performed a two-sample mendelian randomization study to evaluate potential causal associations between gut microbiota and CCA risk using genome-wide association study summary statistics for 196 gut microbial taxa and CCA.Genetic variants were used as instrumental variables.Multiple sensitivity analyses assessed result robustness.RESULTS Fifteen gut microbial taxa showed significant causal associations with CCA risk.Higher genetically predicted abundance of genus Eubacteriumnodatum group,genus Ruminococcustorques group,genus Coprococcus,genus Dorea,and phylum Actinobacteria were associated with reduced risk of gallbladder cancer and extrahepatic CCA.Increased intrahepatic CCA risk was associated with higher abundance of family Veillonellaceae,genus Alistipes,order Enterobacteriales,and phylum Firmicutes.Protective effects against CCA were suggested for genus Collinsella,genus Eisenbergiella,genus Anaerostipes,genus Paraprevotella,genus Parasutterella,and phylum Verrucomicrobia.Sensitivity analyses indicated these findings were reliable without pleiotropy.CONCLUSION This pioneering study provides novel evidence that specific gut microbiota may play causal roles in CCA risk.Further experimental validation of these candidate microbes is warranted to consolidate causality and mechanisms.
基金supported by the Fund of Fujian Provincial Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era(Grant No.FJ2023XZB057)Major Project Fund of Fujian Provincial Social Science Research Base(Grant No.FJ2023JDZ021).
文摘The digital economy,as a new emerging economic form,has become an important power for realizing Chinese-style modernization and promoting green development in China.This paper measures the digital economy and low-carbon transition index based on the data of 30 provinces in China from 2013 to 2020 and analyzes the mechanism and path of the digital economy affecting low-carbon transition using the fixed effect panel data model and the threshold effect model.It is found that,(1)The digital economy and low-carbon transition in China are various in different regions,with characteristics of being unbalanced and insufficient.(2)The digital economy significantly promotes low-carbon transition,with the greatest influence in the Central region,followed by the Eastern region and the Western region.Under different dimensions,the development of informatization and digital transactions promote low-carbon transition,but the development of the internet plays an inhibiting role.(3)The higher the degree of urbanization and environmental regulation,the greater the influence of the digital economy on low-carbon transition.
文摘This paper analyzes factors that explain company layoffs,given the individual layoff data in 2021,China.Using the Probit regression model,we find that gender inequality exists in layoffs,an employee’s work experience becomes less critical in the company’s layoff decisions,and how an employee’s health reasons affect work affects its probability of being laid off.Since we consider a significant endogeneity issue with education,using parents’education as an instrumental variable suggests that political status cannot be a significant advantage for employees to lower the chance of being laid off.Moreover,evidence implies that policymakers encouraging the pursuit of higher educational degrees can foster stability in the labor market.
文摘The state-space representation of linear time-invariant (LTI) fractional order systems is introduced, and a proof of their stability theory is also given. Then an efficient identification algorithm is proposed for those fractional order systems. The basic idea of the algorithm is to compute fractional derivatives and the filter simultaneously, i.e., the filtered fractional derivatives can be obtained by computing them in one step, and then system identification can be fulfilled by the least square method. The instrumental variable method is also used in the identification of fractional order systems. In this way, even if there is colored noise in the systems, the unbiased estimation of the parameters can still be obtained. Finally an example of identifying a viscoelastic system is given to show the effectiveness of the aforementioned method.
基金co-supported by the Foundation of National Defense Key Laboratory of China (No. 9140C860304)the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (No. 2011AA7072048)
文摘Due to the deficiencies in the conventional multiple-receiver localization syste,.ns based on direction of arrival （DOA） such as system complexity of interferometer or array and ampli- tude/phase unbalance between multiple receiving channels and constraint on antenna configuration, a new radiated source localization method using the changing rate of phase difference （CRPD） measured by a long baseline interferometer （LBI） only is studied. To solve the strictly nonlinear problem, a two-stage closed-form solution is proposed. In the first stage, the DOA and its changing rate are estimated from the CRPD of each observer by the pseudolinear least square （PLS） method, and then in the second stage, the source position and velocity are found by another PLS minimiza- tion. The bias of the algorithm caused by the correlation between the measurement matrix and the noise in the second stage is analyzed. To reduce this bias, an instrumental variable （IV） method is derived. A weighted IV estimator is given in order to reduce the estimation variance. The proposed method does not need any initial guess and the computation is small. The Cramer-Rao lower bound （CRLB） and mean square error （MSE） are also analyzed. Simulation results show that the proposed method can be close to the CRLB with moderate Gaussian measurement noise.
文摘The problem of discrete-time model identification of industrial processes with time delay was investigated.An iterative and separable method is proposed to solve this problem,that is,the rational transfer function model parameters and time delay are alternately fixed to estimate each other.The instrumental variable technique is applied to guarantee consistent estimation against measurement noise.A noteworthy merit of the proposed method is that it can handle fractional time delay estimation,compared to existing methods commonly assuming that the time delay is an integer multiple of the sampling interval.The identifiability analysis for time delay is addressed and correspondingly,some guidelines are provided for practical implementation of the proposed method.Numerical and experimental examples are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
文摘This study uses carbon emission data at the provincial level in China between 1998-2018 and the proportion of the total import and export trade between provinces and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)in GDP to measure the level of China-ASEAN trade openness.It examines the impact of China ASEAN trade openness on carbon emissions and its transmission mechanism,and selects the RMB/USD exchange rate as an instrumental variable to address the endogeneity of China-ASEAN trade openness variables.The impact of China-ASEAN trade openness on China’s environment is estimated within a two-stage least squares framework.The results show that trade openness between China and ASEAN positively impacts China’s environment and can facilitate carbon emission reduction.The scale,structural,and technology effects brought by China-ASEAN trade liberalization jointly promote China’s carbon dioxide emission reduction.An inverted“U”relationship is found between economic growth and environmental quality in China,and some provinces and municipalities have now crossed the inflection point of the curve,in which carbon emi ssions decrease with an increase in per capita wealth.
基金Supported by the National Thousand Talents Program of Chinathe National Natural Science Foundation of China(61473054)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China
文摘To deal with colored noise and unexpected load disturbance in identification of industrial processes with time delay, a bias-eliminated iterative least-squares(ILS) identification method is proposed in this paper to estimate the output error model parameters and time delay simultaneously. An extended observation vector is constructed to establish an ILS identification algorithm. Moreover, a variable forgetting factor is introduced to enhance the convergence rate of parameter estimation. For consistent estimation, an instrumental variable method is given to deal with the colored noise. The convergence and upper bound error of parameter estimation are analyzed. Two illustrative examples are used to show the effectiveness and merits of the proposed method.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61573052,61174128)
文摘The paper describes a closed-loop system identification procedure for hybrid continuous-time Box–Jenkins models and demonstrates how it can be used for IMC based PID controller tuning. An instrumental variable algorithm is used to identify hybrid continuous-time transfer function models of the Box–Jenkins form from discretetime prefiltered data, where the process model is a continuous-time transfer function, while the noise is represented as a discrete-time ARMA process. A novel penalized maximum-likelihood approach is used for estimating the discrete-time ARMA process and a circulatory noise elimination identification method is employed to estimate process model. The input–output data of a process are affected by additive circulatory noise in a closedloop. The noise-free input–output data of the process are obtained using the proposed method by removing these circulatory noise components. The process model can be achieved by using instrumental variable estimation method with prefiltered noise-free input–output data. The performance of the proposed hybrid parameter estimation scheme is evaluated by the Monte Carlo simulation analysis. Simulation results illustrate the efficacy of the proposed procedure. The methodology has been successfully applied in tuning of IMC based flow controller and a practical application demonstrates the applicability of the algorithm.
文摘From 2001 to 2012,many local governments in China closed down village teaching sites for primary school students in the first and second grades,consolidating them into larger township schools more distant from village students’homes.School closure and consolidation are particularly striking in China’s central and western regions,where swathes of rural labor migrated to cities for jobs.As a result,numerous primary school pupils are forced to study at boarding schools in the first and second grades,which is considered as too early for pupils to live without parental care.This paper employs survey data from 137 township schools with boarding qualifications collected by a project team consisting of researchers from the China Institute for Educational Finance Research(CIEFR)of Peking University,the Institute of Population and Labor Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences(IPLE-CASS)and the Capital University of Economics and Business(CUEB).By matching the home-school distance with village teaching site information as the proxy variable for the school consolidation policy,this paper evaluates the policy's impact on the likelyhood of premature boarding for primary school pupils,as well as the impact on their human capital accumulation.Our study finds that the creation of teaching sites makes it less likely for primary school pupils to board at school.Premature boarding impedes children’s human capital accumulation,and the harmful effect is particularly striking for children lacking pastoral teachers,raised by grandparents and from families above average income levels,as well as girls.
基金selected by the 12th China Annual Conference of Economicsthe process of drafting this paper,wereceived sponsorships from National Natural Science Foundation(Approval No.71003111)+4 种基金General Program of Cultural and Social Sciences for Higher Institutes of Learning in Guangdong Province(Approval No.10WYXM062)Special Fund of Basic Research Programs for Central Universities(Approval No.10wkjc05)Special Fund of Basic Research Programs for Central Universities(Approval No.10pywk11)Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province(Approval No.S2013010012456)"Theory of Guangdong"2013 crucial practical problems Foundation(Approval No.LLYJ1314)
文摘ihis paper examines the root causes of current cross-national institutional difference from the perspective of national hetereogeneity and provides detailed explanations on the justification and effectiveness of using cross-national genetic distance as the instrumental variable （IV） of institutional difference. We combined 10,585 samples by pairing 146 countries and regions, created a cross-national institutional distance variable composed of 14 indicators from the World Bank and the Heritage Foundation in three aspects including differences of political system, economic system and institutional implementation attributes, and conducted a cross-section IV estimation for the long-term effect of institutional differences on cross-national income gaps using data between 1996 and 2010. Empirical results indicate that institutional difference has a long-term significant positive effect on cross-national income gaps and such an effect has a tendency to increase during sample period. With factors like human capital, geographical factor, language and religion under control, we still arrived at similar conclusions. The empirical results are demonstrated to be robust using different genetic distance measurement indicators and estimation methods.
基金Project of National Social Sciences Foundation Empirical Study on the Intergenerational Transmission of Income Gap(Grant No.14BJY039)
文摘An accurate understanding of the intergenerational transmission of income gap is the foundation for theoretical research and policy formulation to address this issue. This paper has employed the method of two sample instrumental variables to effectively integrate CHIP data and CFPS data and correct the temporal income bias, life-cycle bias and coresidence bias, which are common problems in existing studies, and investigated the tendencies of intergenerational transmission of income gap for China's urban and rural households between 2002 and 2012. Results of empirical study indicate that the intergenerational transmission of income gap for China's urban and rural households has been on the decline yet the level of intergenerational transmission is greater for urban residents than for rural residents. This level of intergenerational transmission of income gap in China is at a medium international level lower than that of countries like the United States, Brazil and Japan and higher than that of Sweden and Chinese Taiwan. Further analysis of the intergenerational mobility of various income groups suggests the following: the intergenerational solidification of the bottom and top income groups of urban residents has significantly improved, which is the source for the reduction of intergenerational transmission of income gap. Rural residents of bottom income group are vulnerable to falling into the trap of intergenerational transmission of low income. In order to mitigate the intergenerational transmission of income gap, efforts must be made to improve educational allowance policy and increase the opportunities for children from poor and underprivileged families to receive education and to eliminate the divide of labor markets to create equal job opportunities for each and every worker.
文摘This paper revealed that after spending years overseas for learning, Cambodian fellows realized that a clean society more likely results from the adopting of a waste management system. The lack of such is the main barrier for waste separation willingness and practices in Cambodia. Self-transcendence values and volunteerism are empirically found as the fundamental factors for any interventions designed to promote pro-environmental intentions and practices respectively. The fellows engaging in volunteerisms appear to do waste separation, ignoring how inconvenient the waste management system or facilities are. Similarly, the fellows concerning the environmental and social issues appear to spare their valuable time to do waste-separation which they find not difficult. This is not the case in this COVID-19 epidemic though. The study results imply that in a society where an inconvenient waste management system is in place the fellows without past volunteering, no matter how knowledgeable they are, will less likely engage in the waste-sorting practice.
