The aim of this study was to develop an adequate mathematical model for long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth in the digital age (2020-2050). In addition, the task was to develop a model ...The aim of this study was to develop an adequate mathematical model for long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth in the digital age (2020-2050). In addition, the task was to develop a model for forecast calculations of labor productivity in the symbiosis of “man + intelligent machine”, where an intelligent machine (IM) is understood as a computer or robot equipped with elements of artificial intelligence (AI), as well as in the digital economy as a whole. In the course of the study, it was shown that in order to implement its goals the Schumpeter-Kondratiev innovation and cycle theory on forming long waves (LW) of economic development influenced by a powerful cluster of economic technologies engendered by industrial revolutions is most appropriate for a long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth. The Solow neoclassical model of economic growth, synchronized with LW, gives the opportunity to forecast economic dynamics of technologically advanced countries with a greater precision up to 30 years, the time which correlates with the continuation of LW. In the information and digital age, the key role among the main factors of growth (capital, labour and technological progress) is played by the latter. The authors have developed an information model which allows for forecasting technological progress basing on growth rates of endogenous technological information in economics. The main regimes of producing technological information, corresponding to the eras of information and digital economies, are given in the article, as well as the Lagrangians that engender them. The model is verified on the example of the 5<sup>th</sup> information LW for the US economy (1982-2018) and it has had highly accurate approximation for both technological progress and economic growth. A number of new results were obtained using the developed information models for forecasting technological progress. The forecasting trajectory of economic growth of developed countries (on the example of the USA) on the upward stage of the 6<sup>th</sup> LW (2018-2042), engendered by the digital technologies of the 4<sup>th</sup> Industrial Revolution is given. It is also demonstrated that the symbiosis of human and intelligent machine (IM) is the driving force in the digital economy, where man plays the leading role organizing effective and efficient mutual work. Authors suggest a mathematical model for calculating labour productivity in the digital economy, where the symbiosis of “human + IM” is widely used. The calculations carried out with the help of the model show: 1) the symbiosis of “human + IM” from the very beginning lets to realize the possibilities of increasing work performance in the economy with the help of digital technologies;2) the largest labour productivity is achieved in the symbiosis of “human + IM”, where man labour prevails, and the lowest labour productivity is seen where the largest part of the work is performed by IM;3) developed countries may achieve labour productivity of 3% per year by the mid-2020s, which has all the chances to stay up to the 2040s.展开更多
The multi-objective differential evolution(MODE)algorithm is an effective method to solve multi-objective optimization problems.However,in the absence of any information of evolution progress,the optimization strategy...The multi-objective differential evolution(MODE)algorithm is an effective method to solve multi-objective optimization problems.However,in the absence of any information of evolution progress,the optimization strategy of the MODE algorithm still appears as an open problem.In this paper,a dynamic multi-objective differential evolution algorithm,based on the information of evolution progress(DMODE-IEP),is developed to improve the optimization performance.The main contributions of DMODE-IEP are as follows.First,the information of evolution progress,using the fitness values,is proposed to describe the evolution progress of MODE.Second,the dynamic adjustment mechanisms of evolution parameter values,mutation strategies and selection parameter value based on the information of evolution progress,are designed to balance the global exploration ability and the local exploitation ability.Third,the convergence of DMODE-IEP is proved using the probability theory.Finally,the testing results on the standard multi-objective optimization problem and the wastewater treatment process verify that the optimization effect of DMODE-IEP algorithm is superior to the other compared state-of-the-art multi-objective optimization algorithms,including the quality of the solutions,and the optimization speed of the algorithm.展开更多
On August 24,2017,the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)held a press conference in the State Council Information Office.Yang Wei,president of NSFC,introduced the project funding progress of NSFC in 201...On August 24,2017,the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)held a press conference in the State Council Information Office.Yang Wei,president of NSFC,introduced the project funding progress of NSFC in 2017,followed by responding to the journalists’request.The press conference展开更多
文摘The aim of this study was to develop an adequate mathematical model for long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth in the digital age (2020-2050). In addition, the task was to develop a model for forecast calculations of labor productivity in the symbiosis of “man + intelligent machine”, where an intelligent machine (IM) is understood as a computer or robot equipped with elements of artificial intelligence (AI), as well as in the digital economy as a whole. In the course of the study, it was shown that in order to implement its goals the Schumpeter-Kondratiev innovation and cycle theory on forming long waves (LW) of economic development influenced by a powerful cluster of economic technologies engendered by industrial revolutions is most appropriate for a long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth. The Solow neoclassical model of economic growth, synchronized with LW, gives the opportunity to forecast economic dynamics of technologically advanced countries with a greater precision up to 30 years, the time which correlates with the continuation of LW. In the information and digital age, the key role among the main factors of growth (capital, labour and technological progress) is played by the latter. The authors have developed an information model which allows for forecasting technological progress basing on growth rates of endogenous technological information in economics. The main regimes of producing technological information, corresponding to the eras of information and digital economies, are given in the article, as well as the Lagrangians that engender them. The model is verified on the example of the 5<sup>th</sup> information LW for the US economy (1982-2018) and it has had highly accurate approximation for both technological progress and economic growth. A number of new results were obtained using the developed information models for forecasting technological progress. The forecasting trajectory of economic growth of developed countries (on the example of the USA) on the upward stage of the 6<sup>th</sup> LW (2018-2042), engendered by the digital technologies of the 4<sup>th</sup> Industrial Revolution is given. It is also demonstrated that the symbiosis of human and intelligent machine (IM) is the driving force in the digital economy, where man plays the leading role organizing effective and efficient mutual work. Authors suggest a mathematical model for calculating labour productivity in the digital economy, where the symbiosis of “human + IM” is widely used. The calculations carried out with the help of the model show: 1) the symbiosis of “human + IM” from the very beginning lets to realize the possibilities of increasing work performance in the economy with the help of digital technologies;2) the largest labour productivity is achieved in the symbiosis of “human + IM”, where man labour prevails, and the lowest labour productivity is seen where the largest part of the work is performed by IM;3) developed countries may achieve labour productivity of 3% per year by the mid-2020s, which has all the chances to stay up to the 2040s.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.61903010 and 61890930-5)Beijing Outstanding Young Scientist Program(Grant No.BJJWZYJH01201910005020)Beijing Natural Science Foundation(Grant No.KZ202110005009).
文摘The multi-objective differential evolution(MODE)algorithm is an effective method to solve multi-objective optimization problems.However,in the absence of any information of evolution progress,the optimization strategy of the MODE algorithm still appears as an open problem.In this paper,a dynamic multi-objective differential evolution algorithm,based on the information of evolution progress(DMODE-IEP),is developed to improve the optimization performance.The main contributions of DMODE-IEP are as follows.First,the information of evolution progress,using the fitness values,is proposed to describe the evolution progress of MODE.Second,the dynamic adjustment mechanisms of evolution parameter values,mutation strategies and selection parameter value based on the information of evolution progress,are designed to balance the global exploration ability and the local exploitation ability.Third,the convergence of DMODE-IEP is proved using the probability theory.Finally,the testing results on the standard multi-objective optimization problem and the wastewater treatment process verify that the optimization effect of DMODE-IEP algorithm is superior to the other compared state-of-the-art multi-objective optimization algorithms,including the quality of the solutions,and the optimization speed of the algorithm.
文摘On August 24,2017,the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)held a press conference in the State Council Information Office.Yang Wei,president of NSFC,introduced the project funding progress of NSFC in 2017,followed by responding to the journalists’request.The press conference
